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.2015;69(2):201-18.
doi: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546. Epub 2015 Jul 28.

The boundaries of genocide: Quantifying the uncertainty of the death toll during the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia (1975-79)

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The boundaries of genocide: Quantifying the uncertainty of the death toll during the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia (1975-79)

Patrick Heuveline. Popul Stud (Camb).2015.

Abstract

The range of estimates of excess deaths under Pol Pot's rule of Cambodia (1975-79) is too wide to be useful: they range from under 1 to over 3 million, with the more plausible estimates still varying from 1 to 2 million. By stochastically reconstructing population dynamics in Cambodia from extant historical and demographic data, we produced interpretable distributions of the death toll and other demographic indicators. The resulting 95 per cent simulation interval (1.2-2.8 million excess deaths) demonstrates substantial uncertainty over the exact scale of mortality, yet it still excludes nearly half of the previous death-toll estimates. The 1.5-2.25 million interval contains 69 per cent of the simulations for the actual number of excess deaths, more than the wider (1-2 million) range of previous plausible estimates. The median value of 1.9 million excess deaths represents 21 per cent of the population at risk. Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546.

Keywords: Cambodia; demographic accounting; estimation techniques; excess mortality; violent deaths.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Total population size estimates, Cambodia, 1962 to 1998, median and 95% simulation interval (in millions)
Figure 2
Figure 2
Model estimates’ density distribution, total number of excess deaths, Cambodia, April 17th, 1975 to January 7th, 1979 (in thousands) Note: Numbers between the vertical lines indicate the density between the corresponding points in the distribution
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