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.2013 Oct 10;502(7470):183-7.
doi: 10.1038/nature12540.

The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

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The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

Camilo Mora et al. Nature..

Abstract

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

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  • Earth science: The timing of climate change.
    Huntingford C, Mercado L, Post E.Huntingford C, et al.Nature. 2013 Oct 10;502(7470):174-5. doi: 10.1038/502174a.Nature. 2013.PMID:24108046No abstract available.
  • Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates.
    Hawkins E, Anderson B, Diffenbaugh N, Mahlstein I, Betts R, Hegerl G, Joshi M, Knutti R, McNeall D, Solomon S, Sutton R, Syktus J, Vecchi G.Hawkins E, et al.Nature. 2014 Jul 3;511(7507):E3-5. doi: 10.1038/nature13523.Nature. 2014.PMID:24990757No abstract available.
  • Mora et al. reply.
    Mora C, Frazier AG, Longman RJ, Dacks RS, Walton MM, Tong EJ, Sanchez JJ, Kaiser LR, Stender YO, Anderson JM, Ambrosino CM, Fernandez-Silva I, Giuseffi LM, Giambelluca TW.Mora C, et al.Nature. 2014 Jul 3;511(7507):E5-6. doi: 10.1038/nature13524.Nature. 2014.PMID:24990758No abstract available.

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