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.2014 Nov;23(6):501-6.
doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2012-050943. Epub 2013 Jul 18.

Left-digit price effects on smoking cessation motivation

Affiliations

Left-digit price effects on smoking cessation motivation

James MacKillop et al. Tob Control.2014 Nov.

Abstract

Background: Cigarette price increases have been associated with increases in smoking cessation, but relatively little is known about this relationship at the level of individual smokers. To address this and to inform tax policy, the goal of this study was to apply a behavioural economic approach to the relationship between the price of cigarettes and the probability of attempting smoking cessation.

Methods: Adult daily smokers (n=1074; ie, 5+ cigarettes/day; 18+ years old; ≥8th grade education) completed in-person descriptive survey assessments. Assessments included estimated probability of making a smoking cessation attempt across a range of cigarette prices, demographics and nicotine dependence.

Results: As price increases, probability of making a smoking cessation attempt exhibited an orderly increase, with the form of the relationship being similar to an inverted demand curve. The largest effect size increases in motivation to make a quit attempt were in the form of 'left-digit effects,' (ie, maximal sensitivity across pack price whole-number changes; eg, US$5.80-6/pack). Significant differences were also observed among the left-digit effects, suggesting the most substantial effects were for price changes that were most market relevant. Severity of nicotine dependence was significantly associated with price sensitivity, but not for all indices.

Conclusions: These data reveal the clear and robust relationship between the price of cigarettes and an individual's motivation to attempt smoking cessation. Furthermore, the current study indicates the importance of left-digit price transitions in this relationship, suggesting policymakers should consider relative price positions in the context of tax changes.

Keywords: Addiction; Economics; Nicotine; Price; Taxation.

Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests All authors declare they have no conflicts of interest. Dr MacKillop currently receives grant funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Institute for Research on Pathological Gambling, and serves as a consultant to NIH grants. Drs Murphy and Carpenter currently receive grant funding from NIH and serve as a consultant to NIH grants. Dr Chaloupka currently receives grant funding from NIH, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the YMCA of the USA, the US Department of Agriculture, Canadian Institute of Health Research, the National Institutes on Cancer (Canada), and the American Legacy Foundation.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Relationship between the price of cigarettes and estimated likelihood of attempting smoking cessation from US$0 to US$10/cigarette. (A) Presents the overall curve reflecting the relationship between price/pack and estimated smoking cessation attempt likelihood. Prices per pack are presented on the x axis, with zero price replaced with $0.01 to permit logarithmic coordinates. (B) Presents changes in probability across prices. In both panels, text boxes illustrate ‘left-digit’ effects.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Differences in magnitudes of left-digit effects across ten price transitions. Significant differences (ps<0.05–0.00001) are present between all changes, with exceptions denoted as follows: a = no significant difference relative to US$8.80–9 price change; b = no significant difference relative to the US$6.80–7 price change; and c = no significant difference relative to US$7.80–8 price change.
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