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doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0048104. Epub 2012 Oct 24.

Predictive modeling and mapping of Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) distribution using maximum entropy

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Predictive modeling and mapping of Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) distribution using maximum entropy

Mona Nazeri et al. PLoS One.2012.

Abstract

One of the available tools for mapping the geographical distribution and potential suitable habitats is species distribution models. These techniques are very helpful for finding poorly known distributions of species in poorly sampled areas, such as the tropics. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is a recently developed modeling method that can be successfully calibrated using a relatively small number of records. In this research, the MaxEnt model was applied to describe the distribution and identify the key factors shaping the potential distribution of the vulnerable Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) in one of the main remaining habitats in Peninsular Malaysia. MaxEnt results showed that even though Malaysian sun bear habitat is tied with tropical evergreen forests, it lives in a marginal threshold of bio-climatic variables. On the other hand, current protected area networks within Peninsular Malaysia do not cover most of the sun bears potential suitable habitats. Assuming that the predicted suitability map covers sun bears actual distribution, future climate change, forest degradation and illegal hunting could potentially severely affect the sun bear's population.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests:The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Predicted potential suitable habitat for Malayan Sun Bear (MSB) with the protected area boundaries as well as locational data used for the modeling.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Variable response curves for the predictors of the MaxEnt model.
These plots show the dependence of predicted suitability on selected variable and the dependencies with other variables.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Results of jackknife test of relative variable importance of predictor variable for MSB.
The plot shows how environmental variables can increase or reduce the gain when solely used or omitted. EVI has the highest gain in isolation, and also reduces the gain the most when omitted.
Figure 4
Figure 4. IUCN expert-based map showing extant and probably extant areas for MSB (Source: [25]).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. IUCN (1996) Red List of Threatened Animals. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK.
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    1. Augeri DM (2005) On the biogeographic ecology of the Malayan sun bear. PhD Dissertation. University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.330 p.
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    1. Steinmetz R, Garshelis DL, Chutipong W, Seuaturien N (2011) The Shared Preference Niche of Sympatric Asiatic Black Bears and Sun Bears in a Tropical Forest Mosaic. PLoS ONE 6: e14509. - PMC - PubMed

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