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.2010 Jul 6;107(27):12163-7.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1003236107. Epub 2010 Jun 21.

Global fishery development patterns are driven by profit but not trophic level

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Global fishery development patterns are driven by profit but not trophic level

Suresh A Sethi et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A..

Abstract

Successful ocean management needs to consider not only fishing impacts but drivers of harvest. Consolidating post-1950 global catch and economic data, we assess which attributes of fisheries are good indicators for fishery development. Surprisingly, year of development and economic value are not correlated with fishery trophic levels. Instead, patterns emerge of profit-driven fishing for attributes related to costs and revenues. Post-1950 fisheries initially developed on shallow ranging species with large catch, high price, and big body size, and then expanded to less desirable species. Revenues expected from developed fisheries declined 95% from 1951 to 1999, and few high catch or valuable fishing opportunities remain. These results highlight the importance of economic attributes of species as leading indicators for harvest-related impacts in ocean ecosystems.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Linear regression of trophic level against log transformed price index (A) and revenue index (B) for 1,040 taxa (dots). Regression lines are in black, inner and outer dashed lines correspond to 95% confidence and prediction bands, respectively. TheP values for slope estimates account for heteroskedasticity. Plotted taxa represent 87% of total global catch 1950–2004.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Catch-weighted trends 1950–2004 for geometric mean of depth range (A), maximum observed taxon length (B) and weight (C, finfish only), and price index (D). Upper graphs are catch-weighted means with large-catch pelagic stocks either included (black lines) or excluded (gray lines). Lower images are total annual catch (tons) over time, including large-catch pelagics. They axis is square-root transformed in the lower graphs. Data coverage as percentage of total global catch including pelagic stocks 1950–2004: price index = 87%, depth = 89%, length = 89%, and weight = 65%.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Chronology of global fishery development by trophic level (A), revenue index (B), mean annual catch (C), price index (D), geometric mean of depth range (E), and length (F). Gray circles indicate the development year for each taxon, excluding fisheries developed after 1974 with mean annual catch <100 tons. Regression lines are in black, inner and outer dashed lines correspond to 95% confidence and prediction bands, respectively. TheP values for slope estimates account for heteroskedasticity. Nonparametric permutation testing found significant differences (P ≤ 0.05) between the 1950 (large black dot) and 1951–1999 group means for all plots except trophic level (P = 0.56).
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Developed fishing opportunities. Outlined bars (lefty axis) are number of fisheries developed in each year (A) and the combined expected annual catch (B) and revenue (C) of all fisheries developed in a respective year, excluding 1950. Expected catch and revenues are measured as the mean annual catch or revenue after year of development. Shaded areas (righty axis) are cumulative totals achieved by each respective year; 1950 summarizes developments before the start of the catch record. Light gray bars and shaded areas after 1999 indicate years where fisheries are potentially still developing their full catch or revenue production (Materials and Methods).
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