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.2009 Oct 14;4(10):e7400.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0007400.

Mapping oil and gas development potential in the US Intermountain West and estimating impacts to species

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Mapping oil and gas development potential in the US Intermountain West and estimating impacts to species

Holly E Copeland et al. PLoS One..

Abstract

Background: Many studies have quantified the indirect effect of hydrocarbon-based economies on climate change and biodiversity, concluding that a significant proportion of species will be threatened with extinction. However, few studies have measured the direct effect of new energy production infrastructure on species persistence.

Methodology/principal findings: We propose a systematic way to forecast patterns of future energy development and calculate impacts to species using spatially-explicit predictive modeling techniques to estimate oil and gas potential and create development build-out scenarios by seeding the landscape with oil and gas wells based on underlying potential. We illustrate our approach for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the western US and translate the build-out scenarios into estimated impacts on sage-grouse. We project that future oil and gas development will cause a 7-19 percent decline from 2007 sage-grouse lek population counts and impact 3.7 million ha of sagebrush shrublands and 1.1 million ha of grasslands in the study area.

Conclusions/significance: Maps of where oil and gas development is anticipated in the US Intermountain West can be used by decision-makers intent on minimizing impacts to sage-grouse. This analysis also provides a general framework for using predictive models and build-out scenarios to anticipate impacts to species. These predictive models and build-out scenarios allow tradeoffs to be considered between species conservation and energy development prior to implementation.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests:The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Oil and gas development potential in the US Intermountain West.
(A) This map shows the potential for oil and gas development from low to high. Areas in red have the highest potential and tan have the lowest. Black dots show producing (active or inactive) well locations (IHS, Inc.). (B) Percent of federal minerals leased by oil and gas potential category (C) Validation of oil and gas potential model comparing predictions based on pre-1986 data to post-1986 wells drilled by quintile-derived oil and gas potential categories.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Oil and gas simulation results for the two scenarios.
This map illustrates the location and extent of expected development in the two scenarios. Areas in orange depict growth for the anticipated scenario. Areas in red depict growth for the unrestrained scenario. Bar graphs show the quantity of development projected for each scenario. Core areas for sage-grouse are shown to highlight expected areas of future conflict ([46]).
Figure 3
Figure 3. Area of expected development for each scenario.
Area (sq km) is divided into development rights sold (black) and development rights available (light gray).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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References

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