doi: 10.1126/science.1114722.
Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations
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- PMID:16809532
- DOI: 10.1126/science.1114722
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Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations
Stephen P Long et al. Science..
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Abstract
Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO2] enhanced yield by approximately 50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change.
Comment in
- Ecology. Climate change and crop yields: beyond Cassandra.Schimel D.Schimel D.Science. 2006 Jun 30;312(5782):1889-90. doi: 10.1126/science.1129913.Science. 2006.PMID:16809520No abstract available.
- Crop models, CO2, and climate change.Ewert F, Porter JR, Rounsevell MD.Ewert F, et al.Science. 2007 Jan 26;315(5811):459-60; author reply 459-60. doi: 10.1126/science.315.5811.459c.Science. 2007.PMID:17255495No abstract available.
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