Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing
- PMID:16672967
- DOI: 10.1038/nature04744
Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing
Abstract
Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean--driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east--known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.
Similar articles
- Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions.Santer BD, Wigley TM, Gleckler PJ, Bonfils C, Wehner MF, Achutarao K, Barnett TP, Boyle JS, Brüggemann W, Fiorino M, Gillett N, Hansen JE, Jones PD, Klein SA, Meehl GA, Raper SC, Reynolds RW, Taylor KE, Washington WM.Santer BD, et al.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Sep 19;103(38):13905-10. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0602861103. Epub 2006 Sep 12.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006.PMID:16968781Free PMC article.
- Meteorology: hurricanes and global warming.Landsea CW.Landsea CW.Nature. 2005 Dec 22;438(7071):E11-2; discussion E13. doi: 10.1038/nature04477.Nature. 2005.PMID:16371953
- Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends.Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC, Lambert FH, Gillett NP, Solomon S, Stott PA, Nozawa T.Zhang X, et al.Nature. 2007 Jul 26;448(7152):461-5. doi: 10.1038/nature06025. Epub 2007 Jul 23.Nature. 2007.PMID:17646832
- Review of solutions for 3D hydrodynamic modeling applied to aquaculture in South Pacific atoll lagoons.Andréfouët S, Ouillon S, Brinkman R, Falter J, Douillet P, Wolk F, Smith R, Garen P, Martinez E, Laurent V, Lo C, Remoissenet G, Scourzic B, Gilbert A, Deleersnijder E, Steinberg C, Choukroun S, Buestel D.Andréfouët S, et al.Mar Pollut Bull. 2006 Oct;52(10):1138-55. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2006.07.014. Epub 2006 Sep 20.Mar Pollut Bull. 2006.PMID:16987532Review.
- Dynamics of recent climate change in the Arctic.Moritz RE, Bitz CM, Steig EJ.Moritz RE, et al.Science. 2002 Aug 30;297(5586):1497-502. doi: 10.1126/science.1076522.Science. 2002.PMID:12202816Review.
Cited by
- Anthropogenic fingerprints in daily precipitation revealed by deep learning.Ham YG, Kim JH, Min SK, Kim D, Li T, Timmermann A, Stuecker MF.Ham YG, et al.Nature. 2023 Oct;622(7982):301-307. doi: 10.1038/s41586-023-06474-x. Epub 2023 Aug 30.Nature. 2023.PMID:37648861Free PMC article.
- Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming.Geng T, Cai W, Jia F, Wu L.Geng T, et al.Nat Commun. 2024 Jul 10;15(1):5810. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9.Nat Commun. 2024.PMID:38987541Free PMC article.
- Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.Luo JJ, Sasaki W, Masumoto Y.Luo JJ, et al.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 Nov 13;109(46):18701-6. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1210239109. Epub 2012 Oct 29.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012.PMID:23112174Free PMC article.
- Robust Hadley Circulation changes and increasing global dryness due to CO2 warming from CMIP5 model projections.Lau WK, Kim KM.Lau WK, et al.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Mar 24;112(12):3630-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1418682112. Epub 2015 Feb 23.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015.PMID:25713344Free PMC article.
- Surface warming-induced global acceleration of upper ocean currents.Peng Q, Xie SP, Wang D, Huang RX, Chen G, Shu Y, Shi JR, Liu W.Peng Q, et al.Sci Adv. 2022 Apr 22;8(16):eabj8394. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abj8394. Epub 2022 Apr 20.Sci Adv. 2022.PMID:35442733Free PMC article.
Publication types
MeSH terms
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources
Research Materials