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Review
.2005 Nov 29;360(1463):2011-20.
doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1749.

Global food insecurity. treatment of major food crops with elevated carbon dioxide or ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggests recent models may have overestimated future yields

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Review

Global food insecurity. treatment of major food crops with elevated carbon dioxide or ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggests recent models may have overestimated future yields

Stephen P Long et al. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci..

Abstract

Predictions of yield for the globe's major grain and legume arable crops suggest that, with a moderate temperature increase, production may increase in the temperate zone, but decline in the tropics. In total, global food supply may show little change. This security comes from inclusion of the direct effect of rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, [CO2], which significantly stimulates yield by decreasing photorespiration in C3 crops and transpiration in all crops. Evidence for a large response to [CO2] is largely based on studies made within chambers at small scales, which would be considered unacceptable for standard agronomic trials of new cultivars or agrochemicals. Yet, predictions of the globe's future food security are based on such inadequate information. Free-Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) technology now allows investigation of the effects of rising [CO2] and ozone on field crops under fully open-air conditions at an agronomic scale. Experiments with rice, wheat, maize and soybean show smaller increases in yield than anticipated from studies in chambers. Experiments with increased ozone show large yield losses (20%), which are not accounted for in projections of global food security. These findings suggest that current projections of global food security are overoptimistic. The fertilization effect of CO2 is less than that used in many models, while rising ozone will cause large yield losses in the Northern Hemisphere. Unfortunately, FACE studies have been limited in geographical extent and interactive effects of CO2, ozone and temperature have yet to be studied. Without more extensive study of the effects of these changes at an agronomic scale in the open air, our ever-more sophisticated models will continue to have feet of clay.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Yield declines due to tropospheric ozone [O3] for the staple crops maize (Zea mays;n=20), rice (Oryza sativa;n=26), soybean (Glycine max;n=41) and wheat (Triticum aestivum;n=33). Estimates were constructed from the equations of Kobayashiet al. (1995), Millset al. (2000), Ashmore (2002) and Wang & Mauzerall (2004). The number of independent treatments on which the above authors developed each line is indicated after species name. Ozone concentration is based on exposure at the stated average for the highest 7 h of each day.
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References

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