AI Survival Stories: a Taxonomic Analysis of AI Existential Risk.Herman Cappelen,Simon Goldstein &John Hawthorne -forthcoming -Philosophy of Ai.detailsSince the release of ChatGPT, there has been a lot of debate about whether AI systems pose an existential risk to humanity. This paper develops a general framework for thinking about the existential risk of AI systems. We analyze a two-premise argument that AI systems pose a threat to humanity. Premise one: AI systems will become extremely powerful. Premise two: if AI systems become extremely powerful, they will destroy humanity. We use these two premises to construct a taxonomy of ‘survival (...) stories’, in which humanity survives into the far future. In each survival story, one of the two premises fails. Either scientific barriers prevent AI systems from becoming extremely powerful; or humanity bans research into AI systems, thereby preventing them from becoming extremely powerful; or extremely powerful AI systems do not destroy humanity, because their goals prevent them from doing so; or extremely powerful AI systems do not destroy humanity, because we can reliably detect and disable systems that have the goal of doing so. We argue that different survival stories face different challenges. We also argue that different survival stories motivate different responses to the threats from AI. Finally, we use our taxonomy to produce rough estimates of ‘P(doom)’, the probability that humanity will be destroyed by AI. (shrink)
The Moral Habitat.BarbaraHerman -2021 - Oxford: Oxford University Press.detailsThe Moral Habitat offers a new and systematic interpretation of Kant's moral and political philosophy.Herman introduces the idea of a moral habitat to examines the dynamic system of duties that exists between individuals and civic institutions.
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Artificial agents: responsibility & control gaps.Herman Veluwenkamp &Frank Hindriks -forthcoming -Inquiry: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Philosophy.detailsArtificial agents create significant moral opportunities and challenges. Over the last two decades, discourse has largely focused on the concept of a ‘responsibility gap.’ We argue that this concept is incoherent, misguided, and diverts attention from the core issue of ‘control gaps.’ Control gaps arise when there is a discrepancy between the causal control an agent exercises and the moral control it should possess or emulate. Such gaps present moral risks, often leading to harm or ethical violations. We propose a (...) second-order ‘duty of moral control’ that mandates closing these gaps to reduce risks within acceptable moral limits. Our analysis encompasses both autonomous machines and collective agents, acknowledging their similarities and key differences in constitution and moral status. We suggest four methods to close control gaps: ensuring artificial agents attain moral agency, providing meaningful human control, implementing safety engineering, and employing social control. These methods aim to responsibly integrate artificial agents into society. We conclude that a realistic approach, which addresses the practical problems posed by control gaps, is essential. This approach provides solutions to manage the risks posed by artificial agents while maintaining acceptable moral standards, ensuring we responsibly harness their potential and address the ethical challenges they present. (shrink)
Realism in the Sciences: Proceedings of the Ernan McMullin Symposium, Leuven, 1995.Igor Douven &Leon Horsten -1996 - Leuven University Press.detailsThis book contains ten papers that were presented at the symposium about the realism debate, held at the Center for Logic, Philosophy of Science and Philosophy of Language of the Institute of Philosophy at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven on 10 and 11 March 1995. The first group of papers are directly concerned with the realism/anti-realism debate in the general philosophy of science. This group includes the articles by Ernan McMullin, Diderik Batens/Joke Meheus, Igor Douven andHerman de Regt. The (...) papers of the second group concentrate on specific problems arising from the realism/anti-realism debate. TheoKuipers' contribution discusses the problem of truth-approximation. Roger Vergauwen's article pertains to the issue of realism in the philosophy of mind and semantics. Jaap van Brakel's article focusses on the relation between everyday concepts and scientific concepts, and on the theory-dependence of observation. Paul Cortois investigates the relation between the question of realism and Kuhn's concept of incommensurability between scientific theories. The final group contains two papers on the realism/anti-realism debate in the special sciences. James Cushing discusses the problem of underdetermination in quantum mechanics and Jean Paul van bendegem addresses the question of the possiblity of an empiricist philosophy of mathematics. (shrink)
Basic and Refined Nomic Truth Approximation by Evidence-Guided Belief Revision in AGM-Terms.Theo A. F.Kuipers -2011 -Erkenntnis 75 (2):223-236.detailsStraightforward theory revision, taking into account as effectively as possible the established nomic possibilities and, on their basis induced empirical laws, is conducive for (unstratified) nomic truth approximation. The question this paper asks is: is it possible to reconstruct the relevant theory revision steps, on the basis of incoming evidence, in AGM-terms? A positive answer will be given in two rounds, first for the case in which the initial theory is compatible with the established empirical laws, then for the case (...) in which it is incompatible with at least one such a law. (shrink)
A coherent trio of, distance and size based, measures for nomic and actual truthlikeness.Theo A. F.Kuipers -2023 -Synthese 201 (2):1-31.detailsSo far, the most prominent measure for actual truthlikeness, i.e. the likeness of a theory to the actual truth, is Ilkka Niiniluoto’s minsum definition, which is purely based on distances. A competing definition is the average distance measure proposed by Pavel Tichy and Graham Oddie. We will define three related, distance and size based, measures for actual truthlikeness and compare them with the two well-known options. However, we will start, Sect. 2, from a trio of such measures for nomic truthlikeness. (...) The nomic truth, or the true theory, here refers to what is nomically, e.g. physically, possible. In a nomic (and factual) context there are two basic kinds of theories, viz. either based on an exclusion claim or on an inclusion claim. Two-sided theories combine these claims, with the maximal claim as extreme special case. We will base truthlikeness measures for exclusion, inclusion, two-sided, and hence maximal, nomic theories on two similarity measures, one in terms of distances between conceptual possibilities and the other in terms of sizes of sets of such possibilities. In Sect. 3 we will treat actual truthlikeness as extreme special case of nomic truthlikeness, viz. assuming that there is just one nomic possibility, the actual one. Next we will compare the resulting measures mutually and with the above mentioned measures of Niiniluoto and Tichy & Oddie. Finally, in Sect. 4, we will sum up the results and explore five questions for further research. (shrink)
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Locations and binding.Herman Cappelen with John Hawthorne -manuscriptdetailsWe present some new data about binding and a theory that explains the phenomena by appeal to event quantification.
Socially Disruptive Technologies and Conceptual Engineering.Herman Veluwenkamp,Jeroen Hopster,Sebastian Köhler &Guido Löhr -2024 -Ethics and Information Technology 26 (4):1-6.detailsIn this special issue, we focus on the connection between conceptual engineering and the philosophy of technology. Conceptual engineering is the enterprise of introducing, eliminating, or revising words and concepts. The philosophy of technology examines the nature and significance of technology. We investigate how technologies such as AI and genetic engineering (so-called “socially disruptive technologies”) disrupt our practices and concepts, and how conceptual engineering can address these disruptions. We also consider how conceptual engineering can enhance the practice of ethical design. (...) The issue features seven articles that discuss a range of topics, including trust in blockchain applications and the evolving concept of nature. These articles highlight that as technology changes the world and our concepts, conceptual engineering provides invaluable tools and frameworks to reflect on these changes and adapt accordingly. (shrink)
An erotetic approach to explanation by specification.Theo A. F.Kuipers &Andrzej Wiśniewski -1994 -Erkenntnis 40 (3):377 - 402.detailsIn earlier publications of the first author it was shown that intentional explanation of actions, functional explanation of biological traits and causal explanation of abnormal events share a common structure. They are called explanation by specification (of a goal, a biological function, an abnormal causal factor, respectively) as opposed to explanation by subsumption under a law. Explanation by specification is guided by a schematic train of thought, of which the argumentative steps not concerning questions were already shown to be logically (...) valid (elementary) arguments.Independently, the second author developed a new, inferential approach to erotetic logic, the logic of questions. In this approach arguments resulting in questions, with declarative sentences and/or other questions as premises, are analyzed, and validity of such arguments is defined. (shrink)
Approaching probabilistic and deterministic nomic truths in an inductive probabilistic way.Theo A. F.Kuipers -2021 -Synthese 199 (3-4):8001-8028.detailsTheories of truth approximation in terms of truthlikeness almost always deal with approaching deterministic truths, either actual or nomic. This paper deals first with approaching a probabilistic nomic truth, viz. a true probability distribution. It assumes a multinomial probabilistic context, hence with a lawlike true, but usually unknown, probability distribution. We will first show that this true multinomial distribution can be approached by Carnapian inductive probabilities. Next we will deal with the corresponding deterministic nomic truth, that is, the set of (...) conceptually possible outcomes with a positive true probability. We will introduce Hintikkian inductive probabilities, based on a prior distribution over the relevant deterministic nomic theories and on conditional Carnapian inductive probabilities, and first show that they enable again probabilistic approximation of the true distribution. Finally, we will show, in terms of a kind of success theorem, based on Niiniluoto’s estimated distance from the truth, in what sense Hintikkian inductive probabilities enable the probabilistic approximation of the relevant deterministic nomic truth. In sum, the truth approximation perspective on Carnapian and Hintikkian inductive probabilities leads to the unification of the inductive probability field and the field of truth approximation. (shrink)
Substance As Process.JohnHerman Randall Jr -1957 -Review of Metaphysics 10 (4):580-601.detailsAll this has been clearly revealed by our philosophies of experience, however muddled they may have been about the nature of "experience" itself. Philosophies of experience have taught most when they have tried to place the world stated and known in the context of the world experienced in other ways, in order to learn and state more. They have taught least when, professedly most empirical, and most positivistic, they have tried to stay as close as possible to the world immediately (...) "given." There is a certain irony about the long and never-ending search for the "given," for what we supposedly start with, that is hardly dispelled by the shouts of triumph each time a new "given" is discovered. To seek to know what the world is like when it is not known, is after all intelligible only as a contribution to making the world better known. Whatever else the world may be when it is not known, it is at least not known. (shrink)
Approaching probabilistic truths: introduction to the Topical Collection.Ilkka Niiniluoto,Gustavo Cevolani &TheoKuipers -2022 -Synthese 200 (2):1-8.detailsAfter Karl Popper’s original work, several approaches were developed to provide a sound explication of the notion of verisimilitude. With few exceptions, these contributions have assumed that the truth to be approximated is deterministic. This collection of ten papers addresses the more general problem of approaching probabilistic truths. They include attempts to find appropriate measures for the closeness to probabilistic truth and to evaluate claims about such distances on the basis of empirical evidence. The papers employ multiple analytical approaches, and (...) connect the research to related issues in the philosophy of science. (shrink)
Kantian Commitments: Essays on Moral Theory and Practice.BarbaraHerman -2022 - Oxford: Oxford University Press.detailsThis volume collects ten essays investigating some fundamental aspects of Kant's ethics, drawing wider conclusions for moral philosophy.Herman aims to undermine some received ideas about how Kantian ethics works and what it means in practice.
In the twilight of Western thought.Herman Dooyeweerd -1960 - Philadelphia,: Presbyterian and Reformed Pub. Co..detailsDooyeweerd would be the first to disclaim originality, or that his is a final system, but rather declares that his is a development of Christian philosophy on the biblical foundations of John Calvin and Abraham Kuyper. As such, his philosophy is of major importance and of far-reaching implications. Dooyeweerd discusses in this work the pretended autonomy of theoretical thought ; the sense of history and the historicistic world- and life-view ; the relationship between philosophy and theology and concludes it with (...) a chapter on the question: What is a human person? (shrink)
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Critical Decisions under Uncertainty: Representation and Structure.BenjaminKuipers,Alan J. Moskowitz &Jerome P. Kassirer -1988 -Cognitive Science 12 (2):177-210.detailsHow do people make difficult decisions in situations involving substantial risk and uncertainty? In this study, we presented a difficult medical decision to three expert physicians in a combined “thinking aloud” and “cross examination” experiment. Verbatim transcripts were analyzed using script analysis to observe the process of constructing and making the decision, and using referring phrase analysis to determine the representation of knowledge of likelihoods. These analyses are compared with a formal decision analysis of the same problem to highlight similarities (...) and differences. The process of making the decision resembles an incremental, sequential‐refinement planning algorithm, where a complex decision is broken into a sequence of choices to be made with a simplified description of the alternatives. This strategy results in certain kinds of relevant information being underweighted in the final decision. Knowledge of likelihood appears to be represented as symbolic descriptions capturing categorical and ordinal relations with “landrhark” likelihoods, only some of which are described numerically. Numerical probabilities, capable of being combined and compared arithmetically, were not observed. These observations suggest an explanation for the heuristics and biases in human decision making under uncertainty in terms of the processes that manipulate symbolic descriptions of likelihoods and construct plans of action for situations involving risk and uncertainty. (shrink)
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Plato's Detractors in Antiquity.Anton-Herman Chroust -1962 -Review of Metaphysics 16 (1):98 - 118.details"The day would fail me," Pontianus observes in Athenaeus' Deinosophistae, "if I were to proceed enumerating all those men who were abused by the philosopher [scil., Plato]...." For "Plato was in fact hostile towards everyone," and displayed "malice towards all"; he had "the reputation of being jealous and of having by no means a good name so far as his character was concerned"; and "besides of being malicious,... [he] also was eager for fame"--characteristics which, if true, certainly would not endear (...) him to others. Aristoxenus, for instance, maintains that perhaps from sheer envy or malice Plato "wanted to burn all of the writings of Democritus." When he failed in this, Aristoxenus continues, Plato, "who mentions almost all the early philosophers, never once alluded to Democritus, not even where it would be appropriate to take issue with him, obviously because he knew that he would have to compete against the greatest of all philosophers." Plato was also accused of being jealous of Xenophon, refusing to mention him in his Phaedo, and of making it a deliberate issue to contradict Xenophon's statement that from his earliest childhood King Cyrus had been thoroughly educated in all the traditional branches of learning. As a matter of fact, Plato insisted that Cyrus "had never given much thought to education." Plato, according to these reports, also denied in a spirit of resentment the truth of Xenophon's description of Menon's foul treachery, calling the whole account an outright fabrication deliberately invented to discredit Menon--in Plato's opinion an upright and praiseworthy person. It might be contended, therefore, that in the final analysis the reasons for the many ancient "anti-platonica" may be looked for in Plato himself, especially in the many violent and often unrestrained polemics which he hurled, often indiscriminately, against practically every author. "He [scil., Plato] was the first philosopher... to attack the views of almost all of his predecessors.". (shrink)
In the Twilight of Western Thought: Studies in the Pretended Autonomy of Philosophical Thought.Herman Dooyeweerd -1975 - Philadelphia,: Presbyterian and Reformed Pub. Co..detailsDooyeweerd discusses in this work the pretended autonomy of theoretical thought; the sense of history and the historicistic world- and life-view; the relationship between philosophy and theology; and concludes with a chapter on the question: What is a human person.
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