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  1. Bread prices and sea levels: why probabilistic causal models need to be monotonic.Vera Hoffmann-Kolss -2024 -Philosophical Studies (9):1-16.
    A key challenge for probabilistic causal models is to distinguish non-causal probabilistic dependencies from true causal relations. To accomplish this task, causal models are usually required to satisfy several constraints. Two prominent constraints are the causal Markov condition and the faithfulness condition. However, other constraints are also needed. One of these additional constraints is the causal sufficiency condition, which states that models must not omit any direct common causes of the variables they contain. In this paper, I argue that the (...) causal sufficiency condition is problematic: (1) it is incompatible with the requirement that the variables in a model must not stand in non-causal necessary dependence relations, such as mathematical or conceptual relations, or relations described in terms of supervenience or grounding, (2) it presupposes more causal knowledge as primitive than is actually needed to create adequate causal models, and (3) if models are only required to be causally sufficient, they cannot deal with cases where variables are probabilistically related by accident, such as Sober’s example of the relationship between bread prices in England and the sea level in Venice. I show that these problems can be avoided if causal models are required to be monotonic in the following sense: the causal relations occurring in a model M would not disappear if further variables were added to M. I give a definition of this monotonicity condition and conclude that causal models should be required to be monotonic rather than causally sufficient. (shrink)
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  • Actual Causation and Minimality.Rafael De Clercq,Jiji Zhang &Jingzhi Fang -forthcoming -British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
    Several of the most prominent theories of actual causation make use of a minimality condition to prevent irrelevant elements from being tacked onto a cause so that the conjunction or sum passes for a cause. Focusing on one theory in particular—the influential Halpern-Pearl definition of actual causation—we argue that either the minimality condition or its rationale ought to be revised. We produce proposals showing that both are live options and demonstrate their potential usefulness within the larger family of counterfactual approaches (...) to causation. (shrink)
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  • Causal Proportionality as an Ontic and Epistemic Concept.Jens Harbecke -2021 -Erkenntnis 88 (6):2291-2313.
    This paper is concerned with the content of the causal proportionality constraint. It investigates two general versions of the constraint, namely “horizontal” and “vertical” proportionality. Moreover, it discusses whether proportionality is considered an ontic or an epistemic, i.e. explanatory, constraint on causation in the context of some of the most prominent theories of causation. The following main claims are defended: (1) The horizontal (HP) and the vertical version (VP) of the proportionality constraint are logically independent. (2) HP is implied by (...) some prominent theories of causation, not by others. (3) None of the discussed popular theories of causation contradicts either HP or VP. (4) HP and VP are not ontic or epistemic principles as such; rather, whether they are ontic or epistemic depends on the theories chosen plus background assumptions about the existence of higher-level causes and their non-identity to lower-level ones. (shrink)
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  • Are the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) Applicable in Determining the Optimal Fit and Simplicity of Mechanistic Models?Jens Harbecke,Jonas Grunau &Philip Samanek -2024 -International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 37 (1):17-36.
    Over the past three decades, the discourse on the mechanistic approach to scientific modelling and explanation has notably sidestepped the topic of simplicity and fit within the process of model selection. This paper aims to rectify this disconnect by delving into the topic of simplicity and fit within the context of mechanistic explanations. More precisely, our primary objective is to address whether simplicity metrics hold any significance within mechanistic explanations. If they do, then our inquiry extends to the suitability of (...) the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and related criteria in determining the optimal balance of fit and simplicity of mechanistic models. As our main claims, we argue that mechanistic models inherently lend themselves to considerations of simplicity, and that the AIC and BIC and related criteria are applicable to some submodels of certain kinds of mechanistic models. However, these criteria and related criteria designed for curve fitting and causal modelling are of little help for a comparative assessment of full mechanistic models, and a fundamentally different approach is needed to make determinations of this kind. (shrink)
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  • A New Minimality Condition for Boolean Accounts of Causal Regularities.Jiji Zhang &Kun Zhang -2025 -Erkenntnis 90 (1):67-86.
    The account of causal regularities in the influential INUS theory of causation has been refined in the recent developments of the regularity approach to causation and of the Boolean methods for inference of deterministic causal structures. A key element in the refinement is to strengthen the minimality or non-redundancy condition in the original INUS account. In this paper, we argue that the Boolean framework warrants a further strengthening of the minimality condition. We motivate our stronger condition by showing, first, that (...) a rationale for strengthening the original minimality condition in the INUS theory is also applicable to our proposal to go further, and second, that the new element of the stronger condition is a counterpart to a well-established minimality condition for probabilistic causal models. We also compare the various minimality conditions in terms of the difference-making criteria they imply and argue for the criterion implied by our condition. Finally, we show that putative counterexamples to our proposal can be addressed in the same way that the Boolean theorists defend the current minimality conditions in their framework. (shrink)
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  • Actual Causation.Enno Fischer -2021 - Dissertation, Leibniz Universität Hannover
    In this dissertation I develop a pluralist theory of actual causation. I argue that we need to distinguish between total, path-changing, and contributing actual causation. The pluralist theory accounts for a set of example cases that have raised problems for extant unified theories and it is supported by considerations about the various functions of causal concepts. The dissertation also analyses the context-sensitivity of actual causation. I show that principled accounts of causal reasoning in legal inquiry face limitations and I argue (...) that the context-sensitivity of actual causation is best represented by a distinction between default and deviant states in causal models. (shrink)
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  • Evaluating Boolean relationships in Configurational Comparative Methods.Luna De Souter -2024 -Journal of Causal Inference 12 (1).
    Configurational Comparative Methods (CCMs) aim to learn causal structures from datasets by exploiting Boolean sufficiency and necessity relationships. One important challenge for these methods is that such Boolean relationships are often not satisfied in real-life datasets, as these datasets usually contain noise. Hence, CCMs infer models that only approximately fit the data, introducing a risk of inferring incorrect or incomplete models, especially when data are also fragmented (have limited empirical diversity). To minimize this risk, evaluation measures for sufficiency and necessity (...) should be sensitive to all relevant evidence. This article points out that the standard evaluation measures in CCMs, consistency and coverage, neglect certain evidence for these Boolean relationships. Correspondingly, two new measures, contrapositive consistency and contrapositive coverage, which are equivalent to the binary classification measures specificity and negative predictive value, respectively, are introduced to the CCM context as additions to consistency and coverage. A simulation experiment demonstrates that the introduced contrapositive measures indeed help to identify correct CCM models. (shrink)
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