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US20220101355A1 - Determining lifetime values of users in a messaging system - Google Patents

Determining lifetime values of users in a messaging system
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Publication number
US20220101355A1
US20220101355A1US17/489,332US202117489332AUS2022101355A1US 20220101355 A1US20220101355 A1US 20220101355A1US 202117489332 AUS202117489332 AUS 202117489332AUS 2022101355 A1US2022101355 A1US 2022101355A1
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users
transaction
determining
message
user
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US17/489,332
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Jean Luo
Zhehao Zhou
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Abstract

The subject technology determines a transaction recency and frequency distribution. The subject technology determines a future monetary value. The subject technology determines monthly active users (MAU) and penetration for global users and users in a specific country. The subject technology predicts monetization values for the users in the specific country. The subject technology determines a lifetime value of the users in the specific country based at least in part on the monetization values.

Description

Claims (20)

What is claimed is:
1. A method, comprising:
determining, by one or more hardware processors, a transaction recency and frequency distribution;
determining, by the one or more hardware processors, a future monetary value;
determining, by the one or more hardware processors, monthly active users (MAU) and penetration for global users and users in a specific country;
predicting, by the one or more hardware processors, monetization values for the users in the specific country; and
determining, by the one or more hardware processors, a lifetime value of the users in the specific country based at least in part on the monetization values.
2. The method ofclaim 1, wherein determining the transaction recency and frequency distribution is based on at least a number of transactions made by a customer that follows a Poisson process with a transaction rate λ.
3. The method ofclaim 2, wherein heterogeneity in the transaction rate λ follows a gamma distribution.
4. The method ofclaim 3, wherein after a transaction, a user becomes inactive with a probability p.
5. The method ofclaim 4, wherein a point at which the user becomes inactive is distributed across transactions according to a geometric distribution.
6. The method ofclaim 2, wherein heterogeneity in the probability p follows a beta distribution.
7. The method ofclaim 6, wherein the transaction rate λ and the probability p varies independently across users.
8. The method ofclaim 1, wherein determining the future monetary value is based on a customer's given transaction varying randomly around their average transaction value, average transaction values varying across users and not varying over time for any user, and a distribution of average transaction values across customers is independent of a transaction process.
9. The method ofclaim 1, wherein determining the lifetime value comprises:
validating a model of the lifetime value based a period of time; and
determining a holdout period from the period of time to test model accuracy for user transaction frequency.
10. The method ofclaim 9, further comprising:
comparing a first set of values corresponding to actual purchases during the holdout period with a second set of values corresponding to purchases in a calibration period to determine a cumulative error rate.
11. A system comprising:
a processor; and
a memory including instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the processor to perform operations comprising:
determining a transaction recency and frequency distribution;
determining a future monetary value;
determining monthly active users (MAU) and penetration for global users and users in a specific country;
predicting monetization values for the users in the specific country; and
determining a lifetime value of the users in the specific country based at least in part on the monetization values.
12. The system ofclaim 11, wherein determining the transaction recency and frequency distribution is based on at least a number of transactions made by a customer that follows a Poisson process with a transaction rate λ.
13. The system ofclaim 12, wherein heterogeneity in the transaction rate λ follows a gamma distribution.
14. The system ofclaim 13, wherein after a transaction, a user becomes inactive with a probability p.
15. The system ofclaim 14, wherein a point at which the user becomes inactive is distributed across transactions according to a geometric distribution.
16. The system ofclaim 12, wherein heterogeneity in the probability p follows a beta distribution.
17. The system ofclaim 16, wherein the transaction rate λ and the probability p varies independently across users.
18. The system ofclaim 11, wherein determining the future monetary value is based on a customer's given transaction varying randomly around their average transaction value, average transaction values varying across users and not varying over time for any user, and a distribution of average transaction values across customers is independent of a transaction process.
19. The system ofclaim 11, wherein determining the lifetime value comprises:
validating a model of the lifetime value based a period of time; and
determining a holdout period from the period of time to test model accuracy for user transaction frequency; and
comparing a first set of values corresponding to actual purchases during the holdout period with a second set of values corresponding to purchases in a calibration period to determine a cumulative error rate.
20. A non-transitory computer-readable medium comprising instructions, which when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform operations comprising:
determining a transaction recency and frequency distribution;
determining a future monetary value;
determining monthly active users (MAU) and penetration for global users and users in a specific country;
predicting monetization values for the users in the specific country; and
determining a lifetime value of the users in the specific country based at least in part on the monetization values.
US17/489,3322020-09-302021-09-29Determining lifetime values of users in a messaging systemAbandonedUS20220101355A1 (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application NumberPriority DateFiling DateTitle
US17/489,332US20220101355A1 (en)2020-09-302021-09-29Determining lifetime values of users in a messaging system

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US202063085935P2020-09-302020-09-30
US17/489,332US20220101355A1 (en)2020-09-302021-09-29Determining lifetime values of users in a messaging system

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US20220101355A1true US20220101355A1 (en)2022-03-31

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US (1)US20220101355A1 (en)
EP (1)EP4222680A4 (en)
KR (1)KR102799446B1 (en)
CN (1)CN116964613A (en)
WO (1)WO2022072505A1 (en)

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US20220207840A1 (en)*2020-12-312022-06-30Snap Inc.Recording augmented reality content on an eyewear device
US11880949B2 (en)2020-12-312024-01-23Snap Inc.Post-capture editing of augmented reality content
US20240134918A1 (en)*2022-10-242024-04-25Adobe Inc.Dynamic user profile projection
US12299701B2 (en)2020-09-302025-05-13Snap Inc.Utilizing lifetime values of users to select content for presentation in a messaging system
US12339916B2 (en)2022-10-242025-06-24Adobe Inc.Dynamic user profile management

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US12069399B2 (en)2022-07-072024-08-20Snap Inc.Dynamically switching between RGB and IR capture

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Cited By (9)

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Publication numberPriority datePublication dateAssigneeTitle
US12299701B2 (en)2020-09-302025-05-13Snap Inc.Utilizing lifetime values of users to select content for presentation in a messaging system
US20220207840A1 (en)*2020-12-312022-06-30Snap Inc.Recording augmented reality content on an eyewear device
US11880949B2 (en)2020-12-312024-01-23Snap Inc.Post-capture editing of augmented reality content
US12272014B2 (en)2020-12-312025-04-08Snap Inc.Post-capture editing of augmented reality content
US12307605B2 (en)*2020-12-312025-05-20Snap Inc.Recording augmented reality content on an eyewear device
US20240134918A1 (en)*2022-10-242024-04-25Adobe Inc.Dynamic user profile projection
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US12339916B2 (en)2022-10-242025-06-24Adobe Inc.Dynamic user profile management

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Publication numberPublication date
EP4222680A1 (en)2023-08-09
CN116964613A (en)2023-10-27
KR20230079257A (en)2023-06-05
KR102799446B1 (en)2025-04-25
WO2022072505A1 (en)2022-04-07
EP4222680A4 (en)2024-06-19

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