技术领域Technical Field
本发明属于水力发电领域，涉及区域发生降雨时梯级径流式小型水电站的来水量计算提供了一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法及系统，尤其适用于评估流域梯级径流式小型水电站的发电能力。The present invention belongs to the field of hydropower generation, and relates to the calculation of the water inflow of cascade runoff small hydropower stations when rainfall occurs in a region. A method and system for predicting the water inflow of cascade small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model are provided, which are particularly suitable for evaluating the power generation capacity of cascade runoff small hydropower stations in a basin.
背景技术Background technique
风电、光伏发电等可再生能源不断发展，发电占比日益提高，中国的电源结构也在逐渐调整和变化。水电作为丰富的调节性资源，能够提高电力系统对负荷的调节能力，促进风、光等新能源的消纳和电力系统的安全稳定运行。在水电站运行的过程中，来水量的不确定性是制约流域分散分布的小型水电站发挥自身优良性能的关键，影响了对小型水电站发电能力的正确评估与合理调控。因此，根据降雨量等气象因素对流域各水电站的来水量进行计算，对于梯级小型水电站充分发挥自身优良性能至关重要。With the continuous development of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation, the proportion of power generation is increasing day by day, and China's power structure is also gradually adjusting and changing. As a rich regulating resource, hydropower can improve the power system's ability to regulate loads, promote the absorption of new energy such as wind and light, and the safe and stable operation of the power system. In the operation of hydropower stations, the uncertainty of water inflow is the key to restricting the small hydropower stations scattered in the basin from exerting their excellent performance, and affects the correct evaluation and reasonable regulation of the power generation capacity of small hydropower stations. Therefore, it is crucial for cascade small hydropower stations to give full play to their excellent performance by calculating the water inflow of each hydropower station in the basin based on meteorological factors such as rainfall.
发明内容Summary of the invention
本发明所要解决的技术问题是，现阶段因难以确定各时刻梯级径流式小型水电站来水量从而难以准确评估其发电能力，为此提供一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法，依据当地的水文数据、气象预测数据信息，通过构建分布式水文模型以考虑区域未来降雨的产汇流过程和水流演进过程对流域各栅格径流量的影响，根据各水电站的集水面积栅格分布，确定各水电站未来24小时中各时段（如15min）的来水量，从而对梯级径流式小型水电站的发电能力进行较为合理准确的评估和计算。The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is that, at present, it is difficult to determine the water inflow of cascade runoff small hydropower stations at each moment, making it difficult to accurately evaluate their power generation capacity. For this purpose, a cascade small hydropower water inflow prediction method based on a distributed hydrological model is provided. According to local hydrological data and meteorological forecast data information, a distributed hydrological model is constructed to consider the impact of the future rainfall runoff process and the water flow evolution process on the runoff of each grid in the basin. According to the grid distribution of the catchment area of each hydropower station, the water inflow of each hydropower station in each time period (such as 15 minutes) in the next 24 hours is determined, thereby making a more reasonable and accurate evaluation and calculation of the power generation capacity of the cascade runoff small hydropower station.
为此，本发明采用如下的技术方案：To this end, the present invention adopts the following technical solution:
一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法，包括：A method for predicting water inflow of cascade small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model, comprising:
依据目标地区内流域各区域水流的流向流量信息将流域划分成若干栅格，其中，每一栅格内水流流向相同；并根据流域各小型水电站分布情况确定各水电站的集水面积栅格分布；The watershed is divided into several grids according to the flow direction and flow rate information of each area in the target area, where the flow direction of water in each grid is the same; and the grid distribution of the catchment area of each hydropower station is determined according to the distribution of each small hydropower station in the watershed;
获取目标地区的水文数据，并据此对每一栅格构建基于新安江模型的分布式水文模型；Obtain hydrological data of the target area and construct a distributed hydrological model based on the Xin'anjiang model for each grid;
获取目标地区未来一天内的预测降雨数据，根据构建的分布式水文模型计算出在未来每小时各栅格区域的产流量；并结合各栅格的上下游关系依据马斯京根法计算每一栅格对应流入栅格的入流量；Obtain the predicted rainfall data for the target area in the next day, and calculate the flow production of each grid area every hour in the future based on the constructed distributed hydrological model; and calculate the inflow of each grid corresponding to the grid according to the Muskingum method based on the upstream and downstream relationship of each grid;
根据未来每小时各栅格区域的产流量及来自上游栅格的入流量，按流向依据各小型水电站的集水面积栅格分布计算出未来各小时、各水电站的来水量。According to the flow production of each grid area every hour in the future and the inflow from the upstream grid, the water inflow of each hydropower station in each hour in the future is calculated according to the grid distribution of the catchment area of each small hydropower station.
进一步地，所述依据目标地区内流域各区域水流的流向流量信息将流域划分成若干栅格，具体为：Furthermore, the watershed is divided into a number of grids according to the flow direction and flow information of the water flows in each area of the watershed in the target area, specifically:
根据目标地区的数字高程模型，在ArcGIS上分析水流的流向和流量信息，绘制目标流域矢量图，并据此将流域划分成若干栅格。According to the digital elevation model of the target area, the flow direction and flow rate information of the water flow are analyzed on ArcGIS, a vector map of the target watershed is drawn, and the watershed is divided into several grids accordingly.
进一步地，所述基于新安江模型的分布式水文模型包括：三层蒸散发模型、蓄满产流模型、分水源模型和汇流计算模型。Furthermore, the distributed hydrological model based on the Xin'anjiang model includes: a three-layer evapotranspiration model, a full-storage runoff model, a water source model and a confluence calculation model.
进一步地，所述获取目标地区的水文数据，包括：Furthermore, the obtaining of hydrological data of the target area includes:
蒸散发模型所需要的上层、下层及深层土壤张力水容量、蒸散发折算系数、深层蒸散发系数；蓄满产流模型中所需要的流域平均张力水蓄水容量、张力水蓄水容量曲线的方次、区域不透水面积占比；分水源模型中所需要的自由水蓄水容量对地下径流、壤中流的出流系数、流域自由水蓄水容量最大值、流域平均自由水蓄水容量；汇流计算模型中所需要的地面、地下、壤中流径流消退系数。The upper, lower and deep soil tension water capacity, evaporation conversion coefficient and deep evaporation coefficient required for the evapotranspiration model; the average tension water storage capacity of the basin, the power of the tension water storage capacity curve and the proportion of regional impervious area required in the full runoff model; the outflow coefficient of the free water storage capacity for groundrunoff and subsoil flow, the maximum value of the free water storage capacity of the basin and the average free water storage capacity of the basin required in the water source model; the surface, underground and subsoil flow runoff recession coefficients required in the confluence calculation model.
进一步地，获取目标地区未来一天内的预测降雨数据，根据构建的分布式水文模型计算出在未来每小时各栅格区域的产流量，表示如下：Furthermore, the predicted rainfall data for the target area in the next day is obtained, and the flow production of each grid area every hour in the future is calculated according to the constructed distributed hydrological model, which is expressed as follows:
其中表示栅格i所在地区在t时刻的降雨量；/>是表达降雨量与栅格i在t时刻降雨产流量之间映射关系的分布式新安江模型，Ri,t表示栅格i区域在t时刻的产流量。in Indicates the rainfall in the area where grid i is located at time t; /> It is a distributed Xin'anjiang model that expresses the mapping relationship between rainfall and rainfall runoff of grid i at time t. Ri,t represents the runoff of grid i at time t.
进一步地，所述结合各栅格的上下游关系依据马斯京根法计算每一栅格对应流入栅格的入流量，表示如下：Furthermore, the inflow of each grid corresponding to the inflow grid is calculated according to the Muskingum method in combination with the upstream and downstream relationship of each grid, which is expressed as follows:
其中，表示栅格j在t时刻的出流量，/>表示栅格j在t时刻对应流入栅格i的入流量，/>为/>的系数。in, represents the outflow of grid j at time t,/> represents the inflow of grid j into grid i at time t,/> For/> The coefficient of .
一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测系统，包括：A cascade small hydropower water inflow prediction system based on a distributed hydrological model, comprising:
栅格划分模块，用于依据目标地区内流域各区域水流的流向流量信息将流域划分成若干栅格，其中，每一栅格内水流流向相同；并根据流域各小型水电站分布情况确定各水电站的集水面积栅格分布；The grid division module is used to divide the watershed into several grids according to the flow direction and flow rate information of the water flow in each area of the watershed in the target area, wherein the water flow direction in each grid is the same; and determine the grid distribution of the catchment area of each hydropower station according to the distribution of each small hydropower station in the watershed;
分布式水文模型构建模块，用于获取目标地区的水文数据，并据此对每一栅格构建基于新安江模型的分布式水文模型；The distributed hydrological model building module is used to obtain the hydrological data of the target area and build a distributed hydrological model based on the Xin'anjiang model for each grid;
产流量和入流量预测模块，用于获取目标地区未来一天内的预测降雨数据，根据构建的分布式水文模型计算出在未来每小时各栅格区域的产流量；并结合各栅格的上下游关系依据马斯京根法计算每一栅格对应流入栅格的入流量；The flow production and inflow prediction module is used to obtain the predicted rainfall data of the target area in the next day, and calculate the flow production of each grid area every hour in the future according to the constructed distributed hydrological model; and calculate the inflow of each grid corresponding to the inflow grid according to the Muskingum method based on the upstream and downstream relationship of each grid;
来水量计算模块，用于根据未来每小时各栅格区域的产流量及来自上游栅格的入流量，按流向依据各小型水电站的集水面积栅格分布计算出未来各小时、各水电站的来水量。The water inflow calculation module is used to calculate the water inflow of each hydropower station in each hour in the future according to the flow production of each grid area every hour in the future and the inflow from the upstream grid, and according to the grid distribution of the catchment area of each small hydropower station.
一种电子设备，包括存储器、处理器及存储在存储器上并可在处理器上运行的计算机程序，所述处理器执行所述计算机程序时实现所述的一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法。An electronic device comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, a method for predicting water inflow of cascaded small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model is implemented.
一种包含计算机可执行指令的存储介质，所述计算机可执行指令在由计算机处理器执行时实现所述的一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法。A storage medium containing computer executable instructions, which, when executed by a computer processor, can implement a method for predicting the water inflow of cascaded small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model.
一种计算机程序产品，包括计算机程序/指令，该计算机程序/指令被处理器执行时实现所述的一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法的步骤。A computer program product includes a computer program/instruction, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of a method for predicting water inflow of cascaded small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model.
本发明的有益效果是：The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
本发明在对流域分散分布的梯级小型水电站来水量的计算中考虑了降雨的产汇流过程以及水流传播的演进过程，通过基于栅格的新安江模型描述降雨与产流之间的映射关系，依靠马斯京跟法描述水流在河道传播过程中发生的水流演进特征，从而能够相对准确地评估梯级小水电的来水量和发电能力，对合理调度梯级小水电的发电、充分利用其发电能力有着重要意义。The present invention takes into account the runoff generation and evolution of water flow propagation of rainfall in the calculation of the water inflow of cascade small hydropower stations dispersed in the basin. The mapping relationship between rainfall and runoff generation is described by the grid-based Xin'anjiang model, and the water flow evolution characteristics occurring during the water flow propagation process in the river channel are described by the Muskegon method. This enables a relatively accurate assessment of the water inflow and power generation capacity of cascade small hydropower stations, which is of great significance for the reasonable scheduling of cascade small hydropower generation and full utilization of its power generation capacity.
附图说明BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
图1为本发明一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法流程图；FIG1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting water inflow of cascaded small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model according to the present invention;
图2为本发明一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测系统结构图；FIG2 is a structural diagram of a cascade small hydropower water inflow prediction system based on a distributed hydrological model according to the present invention;
图3为实施例1部分栅格径流流向信息示意图；FIG3 is a schematic diagram of part of the grid runoff flow direction information in Example 1;
图4为实施例1小型水电站的部分集水面积栅格分布图；FIG4 is a grid distribution diagram of part of the catchment area of the small hydropower station in Example 1;
图5为实施例1该区域小型水电站在所划分栅格上的分布图；FIG5 is a distribution diagram of small hydropower stations in the area of Example 1 on the divided grids;
图6为实施例1预测的20号水电站未来各小时的来水量信息展示图。FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the water inflow information of the No. 20 hydropower station predicted in each hour in the future according to Example 1. FIG.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
这里将详细地对示例性实施例进行说明，其示例表示在附图中。下面的描述涉及附图时，除非另有表示，不同附图中的相同数字表示相同或相似的要素。以下示例性实施例中所描述的实施方式并不代表与本申请相一致的所有实施方式。相反，它们仅是与如所附权利要求书中所详述的、本申请的一些方面相一致的装置和方法的例子。Exemplary embodiments will be described in detail herein, examples of which are shown in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the drawings, unless otherwise indicated, the same numbers in different drawings represent the same or similar elements. The implementations described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all implementations consistent with the present application. Instead, they are merely examples of devices and methods consistent with some aspects of the present application as detailed in the appended claims.
在本申请使用的术语是仅仅出于描述特定实施例的目的，而非旨在限制本申请。The terminology used in the present application is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the present application.
在本申请和所附权利要求书中所使用的单数形式的“一种”、“所述”和“该”也旨在包括多数形式，除非上下文清楚地表示其他含义。还应当理解，本文中使用的术语“和/或”是指并包含一个或多个相关联的列出项目的任何或所有可能组合。As used in this application and the appended claims, the singular forms "a", "an", "said", and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. It should also be understood that the term "and/or" as used herein refers to and encompasses any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.
本发明提供的一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法，如图1所示，其包括以下步骤：The present invention provides a method for predicting water inflow of cascaded small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model, as shown in FIG1 , which comprises the following steps:
步骤一，依据目标地区内流域各区域水流的流向流量信息划分成n×m的栅格，并根据流域各小型水电站的分布情况确定各水电站的集水面积栅格分布；Step 1: divide the target area into n×m grids according to the flow direction and flow information of each area of the watershed, and determine the grid distribution of the catchment area of each hydropower station according to the distribution of each small hydropower station in the watershed;
具体地，可根据目标地区的数字高程模型，在ArcGIS上分析水流的流向和流量信息，绘制目标流域矢量图，并划分栅格，其中，每一栅格内水流流向相同；依据各水电站的位置分布情况确定每个水电站的集水面积栅格分布。Specifically, the flow direction and flow rate information of water can be analyzed on ArcGIS based on the digital elevation model of the target area, a vector map of the target watershed can be drawn, and the grid can be divided, in which the water flow direction in each grid is the same; the grid distribution of the catchment area of each hydropower station is determined according to the location distribution of each hydropower station.
步骤二，获取目标地区的水文数据，并据此对每一栅格构建基于新安江模型的分布式水文模型；具体包括以下子步骤：Step 2: Obtain hydrological data of the target area and construct a distributed hydrological model based on the Xin'anjiang model for each grid; specifically, the following sub-steps are included:
21）收集数据：21) Collect data:
收集区域水文数据信息，包括蒸散发模型所需要的上层、下层及深层土壤张力水容量、蒸散发折算系数、深层蒸散发系数等；蓄满产流模型中所需要的流域平均张力水蓄水容量、张力水蓄水容量曲线的方次、区域不透水面积占比等；分水源模型中所需要的自由水蓄水容量对地下径流、壤中流的出流系数、流域自由水蓄水容量最大值、流域平均自由水蓄水容量等；汇流计算模型中所需要的地面、地下、壤中流径流消退系数等。Collect regional hydrological data information, including the upper, lower and deep soil tension water capacity, evapotranspiration conversion coefficient, deep evapotranspiration coefficient, etc. required for the evapotranspiration model; the basin average tension water storage capacity, the power of the tension water storage capacity curve, and the proportion of regional impervious area required in the full-storage runoff model; the outflow coefficient of the free water storage capacity for groundrunoff and subsoil flow required in the water source model, the maximum value of the basin free water storage capacity, and the basin average free water storage capacity; the surface, underground, and subsoil flow runoff recession coefficients required in the confluence calculation model.
22）对每一栅格构建基于新安江模型的分布式水文模型：22) Construct a distributed hydrological model based on the Xin'anjiang model for each grid:
考虑到水文过程对梯级小水电来水量的影响，分别通过三水源新安江模型和马斯京根法描述径流的产汇流过程和水流的演进过程。Taking into account the impact of hydrological processes on the water inflow of cascade small hydropower stations, the runoff generation and confluence process and the water flow evolution process are described by the Xin'anjiang model of three water sources and the Muskingum method respectively.
径流的产汇流过程通过新安江模型进行描述，模型包括三层蒸散发模型、蓄满产流模型、分水源模型以及汇流计算模型四个部分。考虑到流域降雨分布不均匀的影响及下垫面条件的不同及变化，采用分散型的新安江模型来计算全流域各栅格区域的降雨的产流量。根据新安江模型，栅格i在t时刻的降雨的产流量可以表示为：The runoff generation and confluence process is described by the Xin'anjiang model, which includes four parts: a three-layer evapotranspiration model, a full-storage runoff model, a water source model, and a confluence calculation model. Considering the impact of uneven rainfall distribution in the basin and the differences and changes in underlying surface conditions, the decentralized Xin'anjiang model is used to calculate the runoff generation of rainfall in each grid area of the entire basin. According to the Xin'anjiang model, the runoff generation of rainfall in grid i at time t is It can be expressed as:
(1) (1)
其中表示栅格i所在地区在t时刻的降雨量；/>是表达降雨量与栅格i在t时刻降雨产流量之间映射关系的分布式新安江模型。in Indicates the rainfall in the area where grid i is located at time t; /> It is a distributed Xin'anjiang model that expresses the mapping relationship between rainfall and rainfall flow production of grid i at time t.
步骤三，获取目标地区未来一天内的预测降雨数据，分别根据步骤二所构建的分布式水文模型计算出在未来每小时各栅格区域的产流量，并结合各栅格的上下游关系依据马斯京根法计算每一栅格对应流入栅格的入流量；具体包括以下子步骤：Step 3: Obtain the predicted rainfall data for the target area in the next day, calculate the flow production of each grid area every hour in the future according to the distributed hydrological model constructed in step 2, and calculate the inflow of each grid into the grid according to the Muskingum method based on the upstream and downstream relationship of each grid; specifically, it includes the following sub-steps:
31）收集降雨数据：31) Collecting rainfall data:
根据细尺度权威气象数据网站获得目标流域所在区域未来一天内24h中各小时的降雨量信息，并按照一小时时间间隔整理成降雨量时间序列。The rainfall information for each hour in the next 24 hours of the target basin area is obtained from the fine-scale authoritative meteorological data website, and is organized into a rainfall time series at one-hour time intervals.
32）计算流域各栅格的产流量：32) Calculate the flow rate of each grid in the basin:
将步骤31）中所获取的降雨量序列输入步骤二中建立好的分布式新安江模型中，得到区域内各栅格的降雨产流量。The rainfall sequence obtained in step 31) is input into the distributed Xin'anjiang model established in step 2 to obtain the rainfall flow production of each grid in the region.
33）结合各栅格的上下游关系依据马斯京根法计算计及水流演进过程的栅格的入流量：33) Combined with the upstream and downstream relationship of each grid, the inflow of the grid taking into account the water flow evolution process is calculated according to the Muskingum method:
由于河道具有调蓄作用，对于从上游栅格出流到下游栅格的关联流量，需要考虑河道的坦化和演进过程，采用水文学的马斯京根法来描述。此时：Since the river channel has a regulating function, for the associated flow from the upstream grid to the downstream grid, it is necessary to consider the flattening and evolution process of the river channel, and use the hydrological Muskingum method to describe it. At this time:
(2) (2)
其中，表示栅格j在t时刻的出流量，/>表示栅格i在t时刻与上游栅格j之间的关联流量，即栅格j在t时刻对应流入栅格i的入流量；/>是代表栅格i与栅格j之间考虑河道调蓄作用的水流演进函数，采用水文学上的马斯京根法(MK)求得：in, represents the outflow of grid j at time t,/> represents the associated flow between grid i and upstream grid j at time t, that is, the inflow of grid j into grid i at time t; /> is the flow evolution function between grid i and grid j considering the river regulation effect, which is obtained by using the Muskingum method (MK) in hydrology:
(3) (3)
其中，为/>的系数。in, For/> The coefficient of .
步骤四，根据未来每小时各栅格区域的产流量及来自上游栅格的入流量，按流向依据各小型水电站的集水面积栅格分布计算出未来各小时、各水电站的来水量；具体如下：Step 4: According to the flow rate of each grid area every hour in the future and the inflow from the upstream grid, the water inflow of each hydropower station in each hour in the future is calculated according to the grid distribution of the catchment area of each small hydropower station; the details are as follows:
依据步骤一中所确定的各水电站集水面积栅格分布、各栅格流向信息及步骤32）中所得的各栅格的产流量以及步骤33）所得的各栅格对应入流栅格的入流量，按照径流从外部栅格流向内部栅格的顺序计算各栅格的总流量（产流量加来自上游栅格的入流量），进而得到最终的各水电站累计来水量。Based on the grid distribution of the catchment area of each hydropower station determined in step 1, the flow direction information of each grid, the flow production of each grid obtained in step 32), and the inflow of the inflow grid corresponding to each grid obtained in step 33), the total flow of each grid (the flow production plus the inflow from the upstream grid) is calculated in the order of runoff flowing from the external grid to the internal grid, and then the final cumulative water inflow of each hydropower station is obtained.
与前述一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法的实施例相对应，本发明还提供了一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测系统，如图2所示，包括：Corresponding to the above-mentioned embodiment of a method for predicting the water inflow of cascaded small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model, the present invention further provides a system for predicting the water inflow of cascaded small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model, as shown in FIG2 , comprising:
栅格划分模块，用于依据目标地区内流域各区域水流的流向流量信息将流域划分成若干栅格，其中，每一栅格内水流流向相同；并根据流域各小型水电站分布情况确定各水电站的集水面积栅格分布；The grid division module is used to divide the watershed into several grids according to the flow direction and flow rate information of the water flow in each area of the watershed in the target area, wherein the water flow direction in each grid is the same; and determine the grid distribution of the catchment area of each hydropower station according to the distribution of each small hydropower station in the watershed;
分布式水文模型构建模块，用于获取目标地区的水文数据，并据此对每一栅格构建基于新安江模型的分布式水文模型；The distributed hydrological model building module is used to obtain the hydrological data of the target area and build a distributed hydrological model based on the Xin'anjiang model for each grid;
产流量和入流量预测模块，用于获取目标地区未来一天内的预测降雨数据，根据构建的分布式水文模型计算出在未来每小时各栅格区域的产流量；并结合各栅格的上下游关系依据马斯京根法计算每一栅格对应流入栅格的入流量；The flow production and inflow prediction module is used to obtain the predicted rainfall data of the target area in the next day, and calculate the flow production of each grid area every hour in the future according to the constructed distributed hydrological model; and calculate the inflow of each grid corresponding to the grid according to the Muskingum method based on the upstream and downstream relationship of each grid;
来水量计算模块，用于根据未来每小时各栅格区域的产流量及来自上游栅格的入流量按流向依据各小型水电站的集水面积栅格分布计算出未来各小时、各水电站的来水量。The water inflow calculation module is used to calculate the water inflow of each hydropower station in each hour in the future according to the flow production of each grid area every hour in the future and the inflow from the upstream grid according to the flow direction and the grid distribution of the catchment area of each small hydropower station.
本发明还提供了一种电子设备，包括存储器（内存）、处理器及存储在存储器上并可在处理器上运行的计算机程序，所述处理器执行所述计算机程序时实现如所述的一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法。电子设备作为一个逻辑意义上的装置，是通过其所在任意具备数据处理能力的设备的处理器将非易失性存储器中对应的计算机程序指令读取到内存中运行形成的；除了处理器、内存、网络接口、以及非易失性存储器之外，实施例中装置所在的任意具备数据处理能力的设备通常根据该任意具备数据处理能力的设备的实际功能，还可以包括其他硬件，对此不再赘述。The present invention also provides an electronic device, including a memory (internal memory), a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, a method for predicting the water inflow of cascaded small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model as described above is implemented. As a device in a logical sense, an electronic device is formed by a processor of any device with data processing capability in which it is located reading the corresponding computer program instructions in a non-volatile memory into the internal memory for execution; in addition to the processor, internal memory, network interface, and non-volatile memory, any device with data processing capability in which the device in the embodiment is located may also include other hardware, usually according to the actual function of the device with data processing capability, which will not be described in detail.
本发明实施例还提供一种计算机可读存储介质，其上存储有程序，该程序被处理器执行时，实现上述实施例中的一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法。An embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium having a program stored thereon. When the program is executed by a processor, a method for predicting water inflow of cascade small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model in the above embodiment is implemented.
所述计算机可读存储介质可以是前述任一实施例所述的任意具备数据处理能力的设备的内部存储单元，例如硬盘或内存。所述计算机可读存储介质也可以是任意具备数据处理能力的设备，例如所述设备上配备的插接式硬盘、智能存储卡( Smart Media Card,SMC ) 、SD卡、闪存卡（Flash Card）等。进一步的，所述计算机可读存储介质还可以既包括任意具备数据处理能力的设备的内部存储单元也包括外部存储设备。所述计算机可读存储介质用于存储所述计算机程序以及所述任意具备数据处理能力的设备所需的其他程序和数据，还可以用于暂时地存储已经输出或者将要输出的数据。The computer-readable storage medium may be an internal storage unit of any device with data processing capability described in any of the aforementioned embodiments, such as a hard disk or a memory. The computer-readable storage medium may also be any device with data processing capability, such as a plug-in hard disk, a smart memory card (Smart Media Card, SMC), an SD card, a flash card (Flash Card), etc. equipped on the device. Furthermore, the computer-readable storage medium may also include both an internal storage unit of any device with data processing capability and an external storage device. The computer-readable storage medium is used to store the computer program and other programs and data required by any device with data processing capability, and may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output.
下面结合一具体实施例对本发明的效果做进一步说明：The effect of the present invention is further described below in conjunction with a specific embodiment:
实施例1Example 1
本实施例用以说明所提的一种基于分布式水文模型的梯级小水电来水量预测方法。This embodiment is used to illustrate a proposed method for predicting water inflow of cascade small hydropower stations based on a distributed hydrological model.
实施例选择南方某地区作为背景地点，该地区有77座小型水电站，通过当地的数字高程模型在ArcGIS上分析流域不同位置水流的流向流量信息，绘制流域矢量图，并划分53×66的栅格，确定该区域77座小型水电站的集水面积栅格分布，该区域部分栅格径流流向信息如图3所示，图中第一行数字表示栅格的列数，左边第一列数字表示栅格的行数，中间区域的数字代表该栅格径流具体流向，数字1、2、4、8、16、32、64和128分别表示正东方向、东南方向、南方、西南方向等八个方向；0表示不流入水电站；77座小型水电站的部分集水面积栅格分布如图4所示，序号表示该栅格上产生的径流最终会流向的水电站序号；部分该区域小型水电站在所划分栅格上的分布情况如图5所示，填充显示的数“1”表示该栅格上有水电站；收集该地区的水文数据从而构建基于新安江模型的分布式水文模型；通过在细尺度气象预测网站windy.com获取未来24小时内的气象数据，并将其输入到构建好的分布式新安江模型中计算出在未来每小时各栅格区域的产流量；并结合各栅格的上下游关系依据马斯京根法计算每一栅格对应流入栅格的入流量；再根据未来每小时各栅格区域的产流量及来自上游栅格的入流量按流向依据各小型水电站的集水面积栅格分布计算出未来各小时、各水电站的来水量。图6示出为其中20号水电站未来各小时的来水量信息。本发明在对流域分散分布的梯级小型水电站来水量的计算中考虑了降雨的产汇流过程以及水流传播的演进过程，通过基于栅格的新安江模型描述降雨与产流之间的映射关系，依靠马斯京跟法描述水流在河道传播过程中发生的水流演进特征，从而能够相对准确地评估梯级小水电的来水量。The embodiment selects a certain area in the south as the background location. There are 77 small hydropower stations in the area. The flow direction and flow information of water flows at different positions in the basin are analyzed on ArcGIS through the local digital elevation model, a basin vector diagram is drawn, and a 53×66 grid is divided to determine the grid distribution of the catchment area of 77 small hydropower stations in the area. The runoff direction information of some grids in the area is shown in Figure 3. The numbers in the first row of the figure represent the number of columns of the grid, the numbers in the first column on the left represent the number of rows of the grid, and the numbers in the middle area represent the specific flow direction of the grid runoff. The numbers 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 and 128 represent eight directions, namely, due east, southeast, south, and southwest; 0 means not flowing into the hydropower station; the grid distribution of some catchment areas of 77 small hydropower stations is shown in Figure 4, and the serial number represents the number of rows on the grid. The number of the hydropower station to which the generated runoff will eventually flow; the distribution of some small hydropower stations in the area on the divided grids is shown in Figure 5, and the number "1" filled in indicates that there is a hydropower station on the grid; collect hydrological data in the area to build a distributed hydrological model based on the Xin'anjiang model; obtain meteorological data in the next 24 hours from the fine-scale meteorological forecast website windy.com, and input it into the constructed distributed Xin'anjiang model to calculate the flow generation of each grid area every hour in the future; and calculate the inflow of each grid corresponding to the grid according to the Muskingum method based on the upstream and downstream relationship of each grid; then calculate the water inflow of each hydropower station in the future hour according to the flow generation of each grid area every hour in the future and the inflow from the upstream grid according to the flow direction and the grid distribution of the catchment area of each small hydropower station. Figure 6 shows the water inflow information of the No. 20 hydropower station in the future hours. The present invention takes into account the runoff generation and convergence process of rainfall and the evolution process of water flow propagation in the calculation of the water inflow of cascade small hydropower stations dispersed in the basin. The mapping relationship between rainfall and runoff generation is described by the grid-based Xin'anjiang model, and the water flow evolution characteristics occurring during water flow propagation in the river channel are described by the Muskegon method, thereby being able to relatively accurately evaluate the water inflow of cascade small hydropower stations.
显然，上述实施例仅仅是为清楚地说明所作的举例，而并非对实施方式的限定。对于所属领域的普通技术人员来说，在上述说明的基础上还可以做出其他不同形式的变化或变动。这里无需也无法把所有的实施方式予以穷举。而由此所引申出的显而易见的变化或变动仍处于本发明的保护范围。Obviously, the above embodiments are merely examples for the purpose of clear explanation, and are not intended to limit the implementation methods. For those skilled in the art, other different forms of changes or modifications can be made based on the above description. It is not necessary and impossible to list all the implementation methods here. The obvious changes or modifications derived therefrom are still within the scope of protection of the present invention.
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