技术领域Technical Field
本发明涉及防洪减灾的水文气象相关技术领域，尤其涉及联合卫星与站点资料的降雨频率估计方法及装置。The present invention relates to the technical field of hydrology and meteorology related to flood prevention and disaster reduction, and in particular to a method and device for estimating rainfall frequency by combining satellite and station data.
背景技术Background technique
当前，在全球变暖的背景下，我国极端暴雨和洪水等自然灾害频发，其中洪涝是给我国社会的经济发展和人民生命财产安全带来最严重威胁的灾害之一。如何加强洪涝灾害的预警，如何科学地进行防洪规划设计，是当前防洪减灾工作的重要问题。At present, under the background of global warming, natural disasters such as extreme rainstorms and floods occur frequently in my country. Among them, floods are one of the most serious disasters that threaten the economic development of our society and the safety of people's lives and property. How to strengthen the early warning of flood disasters and how to scientifically carry out flood control planning and design are important issues in the current flood control and disaster reduction work.
利用水文频率计算，根据暴雨资料推算的设计洪水，是我国防洪设计标准的重要依据之一。目前国际上最先进的频率计算方法是将线性矩法和地区分析法相结合。线性矩在频率计算中可以提供不偏、稳健的参数估计值，而地区分析法则可以利用地区的整体水文气象信息。基于这种方法，不仅能够获得精确性和准确性较高的降雨频率估计值，还可以得到不同频率下暴雨雨强的空间分布。The design flood calculated based on the rainstorm data using hydrological frequency calculation is one of the important bases for my country's flood control design standards. At present, the most advanced frequency calculation method in the world is to combine the linear moment method with the regional analysis method. The linear moment can provide unbiased and robust parameter estimates in frequency calculation, while the regional analysis method can use the overall hydrological and meteorological information of the region. Based on this method, not only can we obtain rainfall frequency estimates with high precision and accuracy, but also the spatial distribution of rainstorm intensity at different frequencies.
但目前，这种频率计算方法更多还是应用于站点资料中。对于站点稀少且分布不均匀的地区，由于其包含的暴雨资料较少，得到的降雨频率估计值空间分布已不能满足工程设计以及地区防洪规划的要求。However, at present, this frequency calculation method is still mostly used in station data. For areas with sparse and unevenly distributed stations, the spatial distribution of rainfall frequency estimates can no longer meet the requirements of engineering design and regional flood control planning due to the small amount of rainstorm data they contain.
发明内容Summary of the invention
本发明的目的是为了至少解决现有技术的不足之一，提供联合卫星与站点资料的降雨频率估计方法及装置。The purpose of the present invention is to solve at least one of the deficiencies of the prior art and to provide a method and device for estimating rainfall frequency by combining satellite and station data.
为了实现上述目的，本发明采用以下的技术方案：In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:
具体的，提出联合卫星与站点资料的降雨频率估计方法，包括以下：Specifically, a rainfall frequency estimation method combining satellite and station data is proposed, including the following:
步骤110、获取目标研究区域的卫星资料，对所述卫星资料进行筛选以及质量控制，得到满足频率计算所需要的每个格点的逐年最大日雨量及其对应的暴雨过程总雨量，进而得到每个格点的年最大日雨量序列及年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列；Step 110, obtaining satellite data of the target study area, screening and quality controlling the satellite data, obtaining the annual maximum daily rainfall of each grid point and its corresponding total rainfall of the rainstorm process that meet the frequency calculation requirements, and then obtaining the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of each grid point and the annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence;
步骤120、基于所述卫星资料对目标研究区域进行水文气象一致区划分，得到初步划分的多个一级子区，以及对一级子区进行进一步划分的多个二级子区；Step 120: dividing the target study area into hydrological and meteorological consistent zones based on the satellite data to obtain a plurality of primary sub-zones that are initially divided, and a plurality of secondary sub-zones that are further divided from the primary sub-zones;
步骤130、对所述二级子区进行一致区不和谐性验证，并对存在不和谐格点的二级子区进行不和谐格点调整，得到调整后的二级子区即一致区；Step 130, verifying the inharmoniousness of the secondary sub-region as a consistent region, and adjusting the inharmonious grid points of the secondary sub-region with inharmonious grid points to obtain the adjusted secondary sub-region, i.e., the consistent region;
步骤140、对所述一致区进行最优分布线型选择得到一致区所对应的最优分布函数；Step 140, selecting the optimal distribution line type for the consistent area to obtain the optimal distribution function corresponding to the consistent area;
步骤150、基于最优分布函数确定一致区的地区频率因子，基于地区频率因子计算一致区所包含的任意格点的降雨频率估计值；Step 150: determining a regional frequency factor of the consistent area based on the optimal distribution function, and calculating a rainfall frequency estimate of any grid point included in the consistent area based on the regional frequency factor;
步骤160、获取目标研究区域中每个雨量站点的站点资料，基于所述站点资料构建各雨量站点的年最大日雨量序列及对应的年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列，之后重复执行步骤120至步骤150，得到不同所述雨量站点的降雨频率估计值；Step 160, obtaining the site data of each rainfall station in the target study area, constructing the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of each rainfall station and the corresponding annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence based on the site data, and then repeating steps 120 to 150 to obtain rainfall frequency estimation values of different rainfall stations;
步骤170、通过线性回归模型，将目标研究区域在重现期为T时的格点的降雨频率估计值和雨量站点的降雨频率估计值进行数据融合，得到目标研究区域校正后的重现期为T时的降水频率估计值。Step 170: By using a linear regression model, the estimated rainfall frequency values of the grid points in the target study area when the return period is T and the estimated rainfall frequency values of the rainfall stations are fused to obtain the estimated rainfall frequency value with a corrected return period of T in the target study area.
进一步，具体的，步骤110中，卫星资料包括目标研究区域经纬度范围内的卫星网格化逐日降雨和逐日平均气温产品，以及每个格点的经纬度信息，质量控制需要满足频率计算所需要的代表性、可靠性和一致性的原则。Further, specifically, in step 110, the satellite data include satellite gridded daily rainfall and daily average temperature products within the longitude and latitude of the target study area, as well as the longitude and latitude information of each grid point, and the quality control needs to meet the principles of representativeness, reliability and consistency required for frequency calculation.
进一步，具体的，步骤120包括以下，Further, specifically, step 120 includes the following:
步骤121、选择各格点的日雨量和日平均气温的逐月历史平均值资料作为输入变量，通过模糊C均值聚类对目标研究区域的格点进行初步的划分，得到一级子区；Step 121, selecting the monthly historical average data of daily rainfall and daily average temperature at each grid point as input variables, and performing a preliminary division of the grid points of the target study area by fuzzy C-means clustering to obtain first-level sub-areas;
步骤122、利用所划分的一级子区内各格点的年最大日雨量序列X1及年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列X2，计算每个格点的多元线性矩离差系数τ2[12]，τ2[12]计算公式如下：Step 122: Calculate the multivariate linear moment deviation coefficient τ2[12] of each grid point using the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence X1 and the annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence X2 in the divided first-level sub-area. The calculation formula of τ 2[12] is as follows:
且/> And/>
其中，为变量X(j),j＝1,2的第k个线性矩系数，特别地，定义：in, is the kth linear moment coefficient of variable X(j), j=1,2. In particular, we define:
λ2[ij]＝2Cov[Xi,Fj(Xj)]λ2[ij] = 2Cov[Xi ,Fj (Xj )]
λ3[ij]＝6Cov{Xi,[Fj(Xj)-1/2]2}λ3[ij] =6Cov{Xi ,[Fj (Xj )-1/2]2 }
式中，i,j＝1,2且定义Fj(),j＝1,2为变量Xj的分布函数，Where i, j = 1, 2 and define Fj (), j = 1, 2 as the distribution function of variable Xj ,
根据τ2[12]的统计特征同一性将一级子区再细分为多个二级子区，使得每个二级子区的异质性检验指标H||.||<1，异质性指标H||.||的计算公式如下：According to the statistical characteristic identity of τ2[12], the first-level sub-area is further subdivided into multiple second-level sub-areas, so that the heterogeneity test index H||.|| of each second-level sub-area is <1. The calculation formula of the heterogeneity index H||.|| is as follows:
式中，In the formula,
其中为格点i的线性矩协方差系数矩阵，定义in is the linear moment covariance coefficient matrix of grid point i, and is defined as
ni为该子区内第i个格点的卫星逐日降雨资料的有效年份长度，将‖A‖定义为矩阵A的一个新标准，At是矩阵A的转置矩阵。ni is the effective annual length of the satellite daily rainfall data at the ith grid point in the sub-area, and ‖A‖ is defined as a new standard of the matrix A, At is the transposed matrix of matrix A.
进一步，具体的，步骤130包括以下，Further, specifically, step 130 includes the following:
假定二级子区中有N个格点，计算每个格点i的二阶线性矩系数矩阵三阶线性矩系数矩阵/>以及四阶线性矩系数矩阵/>构成矩阵Assuming that there are N grid points in the secondary subarea, calculate the second-order linear moment coefficient matrix of each grid point i Third-order linear moment coefficient matrix/> And the fourth-order linear moment coefficient matrix/> Composition matrix
令：make:
当||Di||大于一致区内格点数N(N≥5)对应的临界值时，认为该格点为不和谐格点；When ||Di || is greater than the critical value corresponding to the number of grid points N (N ≥ 5) in the consistent region, the grid point is considered to be a discordant grid point;
当二级子区内存在不和谐格点时，获取对不和谐格点的分析验证结果，若分析验证通过则保留至原二级子区，若不通过则剔除出原二级子区。When there are inharmonious grid points in the secondary sub-region, the analysis and verification results of the inharmonious grid points are obtained. If the analysis and verification pass, they are retained in the original secondary sub-region; if not, they are removed from the original secondary sub-region.
进一步，具体的，步骤140包括，Further, specifically, step 140 includes,
步骤141、假定二级子区中有N个格点，其中第i个格点的年最大日雨量序列的长度为ni，将格点i的年最大日雨量序列分解为共性分量和个性分量，个性分量即格点i年最大日雨量序列的平均值，将格点i的年最大日雨量序列去均值化后即得到反映地区共性的共性分量，利用各格点的共性分量，计算单格点样本线性矩离差系数t(i)、样本线性矩偏态系数以及样本线性矩峰度系数/>按照各格点的序列长度进行加权平均得到区域平均线性矩离差系数tR、偏态系数/>和峰度系数/>Step 141, assuming that there are N grid points in the secondary sub-area, where the length of the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of the i-th grid point is ni , the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of grid point i is decomposed into a common component and an individual component, the individual component being the average value of the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of grid point i, and the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of grid point i is de-averaged to obtain the common component reflecting the commonality of the region, and the common components of each grid point are used to calculate the single grid point sample linear moment deviation coefficient t(i) and the sample linear moment skewness coefficient And the sample linear moment kurtosis coefficient/> The weighted average of the sequence length of each grid point is used to obtain the regional average linear moment deviation coefficient tR and skewness coefficient/> and kurtosis coefficient/>
步骤142、根据区域平均线性矩系数与概率分布函数参数之间的关系，利用蒙特卡洛模拟检验从三参数的广义逻辑斯蒂分布、广义极值分布、广义正态分布、广义帕累托分布和皮尔森Ⅲ型分布中确定各个二级分区的最佳分布函数。Step 142: Based on the relationship between the regional average linear moment coefficient and the probability distribution function parameters, the Monte Carlo simulation test is used to determine the optimal distribution function of each secondary partition from the three-parameter generalized logistic distribution, generalized extreme value distribution, generalized normal distribution, generalized Pareto distribution and Pearson type III distribution.
进一步，具体的，步骤150包括，Further, specifically, step 150 includes,
基于第j个一致区的最优分布函数，即可确定第j个一致区在重现期为T时的频率估计值，即该一致区的地区频率因子qT,j；Based on the optimal distribution function of the jth consistent area, the frequency estimate of the jth consistent area when the return period is T can be determined, that is, the regional frequency factor qT,j of the consistent area;
根据下式确定第j个一致区内第i个格点在重现期为T时的降雨频率估计值QT,i,j：The estimated rainfall frequency QT,i,j at the i-th grid point in the j-th consistent area when the return period is T is determined according to the following formula:
式中，为第j个一致区中第i个格点年最大日雨量的历史平均值。In the formula, is the historical average of the annual maximum daily rainfall at the ith grid point in the jth consistent area.
进一步，具体的，步骤160包括，Further, specifically, step 160 includes,
每个雨量站点的站点资料包括每个站点经纬度、高程和搬迁情况，以及站点的历史逐日雨量和逐日平均气温资料。The station data of each rainfall station includes the latitude and longitude, elevation and relocation status of each station, as well as the historical daily rainfall and daily average temperature data of the station.
进一步，具体的，步骤170中数据融合的过程包括，Further, specifically, the data fusion process in step 170 includes:
步骤171、假设在目标研究区域内共有n个雨量站点，Pg为由n个雨量站点构成的重现期为T时的站点降雨频率估计值序列，Ps为对应的格点降雨频率估计值序列。假定线性回归方程如下：Step 171: Assume that there are n rainfall stations in the target study area,Pg is the station rainfall frequency estimation value sequence composed of n rainfall stations with a return period of T, andPs is the corresponding grid rainfall frequency estimation value sequence. Assume that the linear regression equation is as follows:
Pg＝A×Ps+BPg ＝A×Ps +B
式中，A，B为回归参数，In the formula, A and B are regression parameters,
步骤172、通过最小二乘法进行估计，得到以下形式的回归方程：Step 172: Estimation is performed by the least square method to obtain a regression equation of the following form:
式中，和/>分别为站点降水频率估计值序列和对应的格点降水频率估计值序列的均方差，/>和/>分别为站点降水频率估计值序列和格点降水频率估计值序列的平均值，r为相关系数，其计算公式如下：In the formula, and/> are the mean square error of the station precipitation frequency estimate sequence and the corresponding grid precipitation frequency estimate sequence, respectively, and/> are the average values of the station precipitation frequency estimation value series and the grid precipitation frequency estimation value series, respectively, and r is the correlation coefficient, which is calculated as follows:
由此可得到回归系数：From this we can get the regression coefficient:
步骤173、对回归系数r进行显著性检验，在置信度α＝5％的水平下，根据站点数n，从相关系数检验表中查取临界值rα，在当|r|>rα时，转至步骤174；Step 173, perform a significance test on the regression coefficient r, at a confidence level of α=5%, look up the critical value rα from the correlation coefficient test table according to the number of sites n, and when |r|>rα , go to step 174;
步骤174、将整个目标研究区域的格点降水频率估计值为自变量Ps′，带入Pg′＝A×Ps′+B中，计算得到的Pg′即为目标研究区域校正后的重现期为T时的降水频率估计值。Step 174: Substitute the grid precipitation frequency estimate of the entire target study area as the independent variablePs′ intoPg′ =A×Ps′ +B. The calculatedPg′ is the precipitation frequency estimate of the target study area when the return period is T after correction.
本发明还提出联合卫星与站点资料的降雨频率估计装置，包括：The present invention also proposes a rainfall frequency estimation device combining satellite and station data, comprising:
数据获取模块，用于获取目标研究区域的卫星资料，对所述卫星资料进行筛选以及质量控制得到满足频率计算所需要的每个格点的逐年最大日雨量及其对应的暴雨过程总雨量，进而得到每个格点的年最大日雨量序列及年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列；The data acquisition module is used to obtain satellite data of the target research area, screen and quality control the satellite data to obtain the annual maximum daily rainfall of each grid point and the corresponding total rainfall of the rainstorm process required for frequency calculation, and then obtain the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of each grid point and the annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence;
区域划分模块，用于基于所述卫星资料对目标研究区域进行水文气象一致区划分，得到初步划分的多个一级子区，以及对一级子区进行进一步划分的多个二级子区；A regional division module is used to divide the target research area into hydrological and meteorological consistent areas based on the satellite data, obtain a plurality of primary sub-areas that are initially divided, and further divide the primary sub-areas into a plurality of secondary sub-areas;
不和谐性验证模块，用于对所述二级子区进行一致区不和谐性验证，对并存在不和谐格点的二级子区进行不和谐格点调整，得到调整后的二级子区即一致区；The inharmoniousness verification module is used to verify the inharmoniousness of the secondary sub-area in a consistent area, and to adjust the inharmonious grid points of the secondary sub-area where there are inharmonious grid points, so as to obtain the adjusted secondary sub-area, i.e., the consistent area;
最优分布函数计算模块，用于对所述一致区进行最优分布线型选择得到一致区所对应的最优分布函数；An optimal distribution function calculation module, used for selecting the optimal distribution line type for the consistent area to obtain the optimal distribution function corresponding to the consistent area;
格点降雨频率估计值计算模块，用于基于最优分布函数确定一致区的地区频率因子，基于地区频率因子计算一致区所包含的任意格点的降雨频率估计值；A grid point rainfall frequency estimation value calculation module is used to determine the regional frequency factor of the consistent area based on the optimal distribution function, and calculate the rainfall frequency estimation value of any grid point included in the consistent area based on the regional frequency factor;
雨量站点降雨频率估计值计算模块，用于获取目标研究区域中每个雨量站点的站点资料，基于所述站点资料构建各雨量站点的年最大日雨量序列及对应的年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列，之后重复运行区域划分模块、不和谐性验证模块、最优分布函数计算模块以及格点降雨频率估计值计算模块，得到不同所述雨量站点的降雨频率估计值；The rainfall frequency estimation value calculation module of the rainfall station is used to obtain the station data of each rainfall station in the target study area, and construct the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of each rainfall station and the corresponding annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence based on the station data, and then repeatedly run the regional division module, the inharmony verification module, the optimal distribution function calculation module and the grid rainfall frequency estimation value calculation module to obtain the rainfall frequency estimation values of different rainfall stations;
降水频率估计模块，用于通过线性回归模型，将目标研究区域在重现期为T时的格点的降雨频率估计值和雨量站点的降雨频率估计值进行数据融合，得到目标研究区域校正后的重现期为T时的降水频率估计值。The precipitation frequency estimation module is used to fuse the rainfall frequency estimation values of the grid points in the target study area when the return period is T and the rainfall frequency estimation values of the rainfall stations through a linear regression model to obtain the precipitation frequency estimation values of the target study area when the return period is T after correction.
本发明提出联合卫星与站点资料的降雨频率估计方法，与现有技术相对比所具备的有益效果为：The present invention proposes a rainfall frequency estimation method combining satellite and station data, which has the following beneficial effects compared with the prior art:
1.本发明在进行一致区划分时，采用了多元线性矩法。与目前较为先进的基于年极值降雨单一气象要素的地区线性矩法相比，该方法使用了年最大日雨量序列和年最大暴雨过程总雨量两个要素，能更好地反映一致区的暴雨特征，使得分区结果更合理、可靠。1. The present invention adopts the multivariate linear moment method when dividing the consistent area. Compared with the more advanced regional linear moment method based on the single meteorological element of annual extreme rainfall, this method uses two elements, the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence and the annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall, which can better reflect the rainstorm characteristics of the consistent area and make the zoning results more reasonable and reliable.
2.本发明将基于卫星网格化产品的降雨频率估计值和基于雨量站点资料的降雨频率估计值进行了数据融合，不仅可以给无雨量站点或站点稀少地区提供高分辨率及准确性较高的降雨频率估计值，还可以得到研究区域更为具体准确的降雨频率估计值空间分布。2. The present invention fuses the rainfall frequency estimation value based on satellite grid products and the rainfall frequency estimation value based on rainfall station data, which can not only provide high-resolution and high-accuracy rainfall frequency estimation values for areas with no rainfall stations or few stations, but also obtain more specific and accurate spatial distribution of rainfall frequency estimation values in the study area.
3.本发明所述的构建方法，可为其他地区利用卫星资料进行降雨频率计算提供一定的科学参考。3. The construction method described in the present invention can provide a certain scientific reference for other regions to calculate rainfall frequency using satellite data.
附图说明BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
通过对结合附图所示出的实施方式进行详细说明，本公开的上述以及其他特征将更加明显，本公开附图中相同的参考标号表示相同或相似的元素，显而易见地，下面描述中的附图仅仅是本公开的一些实施例，对于本领域普通技术人员来讲，在不付出创造性劳动的前提下，还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图，在附图中：The above and other features of the present disclosure will become more apparent by describing in detail the embodiments shown in the accompanying drawings. The same reference numerals in the accompanying drawings of the present disclosure represent the same or similar elements. Obviously, the accompanying drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present disclosure. For those skilled in the art, other accompanying drawings can be obtained based on these accompanying drawings without creative work. In the accompanying drawings:
图1所示为本发明联合卫星与站点资料的降雨频率估计方法的流程图。FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a rainfall frequency estimation method combining satellite and station data according to the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
以下将结合实施例和附图对本发明的构思、具体结构及产生的技术效果进行清楚、完整的描述，以充分地理解本发明的目的、方案和效果。需要说明的是，在不冲突的情况下，本申请中的实施例及实施例中的特征可以相互组合。附图中各处使用的相同的附图标记指示相同或相似的部分。The following will be combined with the embodiments and drawings to clearly and completely describe the concept, specific structure and technical effects of the present invention, so as to fully understand the purpose, scheme and effect of the present invention. It should be noted that the embodiments in this application and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other without conflict. The same reference numerals used throughout the drawings indicate the same or similar parts.
参照图1，实施例1，本发明提出联合卫星与站点资料的降雨频率估计方法，包括以下：Referring to FIG. 1 , Example 1, the present invention proposes a rainfall frequency estimation method combining satellite and station data, including the following:
步骤110、获取目标研究区域的卫星资料，对所述卫星资料进行筛选以及质量控制得到满足频率计算所需要的每个格点的逐年最大日雨量及其对应的暴雨过程总雨量，进而得到每个格点的年最大日雨量序列及年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列；Step 110, obtaining satellite data of the target study area, screening and quality controlling the satellite data to obtain the annual maximum daily rainfall of each grid point and its corresponding total rainfall of the rainstorm process that meet the frequency calculation requirements, and then obtaining the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of each grid point and the annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence;
步骤120、基于所述卫星资料对目标研究区域进行水文气象一致区划分，得到初步划分的多个一级子区，以及对一级子区进行进一步划分的多个二级子区；Step 120: dividing the target study area into hydrological and meteorological consistent zones based on the satellite data to obtain a plurality of primary sub-zones that are initially divided, and a plurality of secondary sub-zones that are further divided from the primary sub-zones;
步骤130、对所述二级子区进行一致区不和谐性验证，对并存在不和谐格点的二级子区进行不和谐格点调整，得到调整后的二级子区即一致区；Step 130, verify the inharmoniousness of the second-level sub-area as a consistent area, and adjust the inharmonious grid points of the second-level sub-area where there are inharmonious grid points, to obtain the adjusted second-level sub-area, i.e., the consistent area;
步骤140、对所述一致区进行最优分布线型选择得到一致区所对应的最优分布函数；Step 140, selecting the optimal distribution line type for the consistent area to obtain the optimal distribution function corresponding to the consistent area;
步骤150、基于最优分布函数确定一致区的地区频率因子，基于地区频率因子计算一致区所包含的任意格点的降雨频率估计值；其中，计算得到的地区频率因子，与一致区所包含的任意格点的降雨个性分量进行“叠加”，得到该格点的降雨频率估计值，其中降雨个性分量指的是格点年最大日雨量序列的平均值。Step 150: determine the regional frequency factor of the consistent area based on the optimal distribution function, and calculate the rainfall frequency estimate of any grid point included in the consistent area based on the regional frequency factor; wherein the calculated regional frequency factor is "superimposed" with the rainfall individuality component of any grid point included in the consistent area to obtain the rainfall frequency estimate of the grid point, wherein the rainfall individuality component refers to the average value of the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of the grid point.
步骤160、获取目标研究区域中每个雨量站点的站点资料，基于所述站点资料构建各雨量站点的年最大日雨量序列及对应的年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列，之后重复执行步骤120至步骤150，得到不同所述雨量站点的降雨频率估计值；Step 160, obtaining the site data of each rainfall station in the target study area, constructing the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of each rainfall station and the corresponding annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence based on the site data, and then repeating steps 120 to 150 to obtain rainfall frequency estimation values of different rainfall stations;
步骤170、通过线性回归模型，将目标研究区域在重现期为T时的格点的降雨频率估计值和雨量站点的降雨频率估计值进行数据融合，得到目标研究区域校正后的重现期为T时的降水频率估计值。Step 170: By using a linear regression model, the estimated rainfall frequency values of the grid points in the target study area when the return period is T and the estimated rainfall frequency values of the rainfall stations are fused to obtain the estimated rainfall frequency value with a corrected return period of T in the target study area.
作为本发明的优选实施方式，具体的，步骤110中，卫星资料包括目标研究区域经纬度范围内的卫星网格化逐日降雨和逐日平均气温产品，以及每个格点的经纬度信息，质量控制需要满足频率计算所需要的代表性、可靠性和一致性的原则。As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, specifically, in step 110, the satellite data include satellite gridded daily rainfall and daily average temperature products within the longitude and latitude of the target study area, as well as the longitude and latitude information of each grid point, and the quality control needs to meet the principles of representativeness, reliability and consistency required for frequency calculation.
在步骤110中，收集研究区域经纬度范围内的卫星网格化逐日降雨和逐日平均气温产品，并收集每个网格点的经纬度信息。从中挑选出各格点的逐年最大日雨量及其对应的暴雨过程总雨量，分别得到年最大日雨量序列及年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列；In step 110, the satellite gridded daily rainfall and daily average temperature products within the longitude and latitude of the study area are collected, and the longitude and latitude information of each grid point is collected. The annual maximum daily rainfall of each grid point and the corresponding total rainfall of the rainstorm process are selected to obtain the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence and the annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence respectively;
质量控制包括检查格点的历史年最大日雨量系列资料是否存在特异值，有效数据长度是否超过20年，以及是否来自同一总体分布等。即满足频率计算所需要的代表性、可靠性和一致性等原则。Quality control includes checking whether there are outliers in the historical annual maximum daily rainfall series data of the grid points, whether the effective data length exceeds 20 years, and whether they come from the same overall distribution, etc. That is, the principles of representativeness, reliability and consistency required for frequency calculation are met.
作为本发明的优选实施方式，具体的，步骤120包括以下，As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, specifically, step 120 includes the following:
步骤121、根据气象相似性对研究区域进行初步分区，选择各格点的日雨量和日平均气温的逐月历史平均值资料作为输入变量，通过模糊C均值聚类对目标研究区域的格点进行初步的划分，得到一级子区；Step 121, preliminarily partition the study area according to meteorological similarity, select the monthly historical average data of daily rainfall and daily average temperature of each grid point as input variables, and preliminarily divide the grid points of the target study area through fuzzy C-means clustering to obtain first-level sub-areas;
步骤122、利用所划分的一级子区内各格点的年最大日雨量序列X1及年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列X2，计算每个格点的多元线性矩离差系数τ2[12]，τ2[12]计算公式如下：Step 122: Calculate the multivariate linear moment deviation coefficient τ2[12] of each grid point using the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence X1 and the annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence X2 in the divided first-level sub-area. The calculation formula of τ 2[12] is as follows:
且/> And/>
其中，为变量X(j),j＝1,2的第k个线性矩系数，特别地，定义：in, is the kth linear moment coefficient of variable X(j), j=1,2. In particular, we define:
λ2[ij]＝2Cov[Xi,Fj(Xj)]λ2[ij] = 2Cov[Xi ,Fj (Xj )]
λ3[ij]＝6Cov{Xi,[Fj(Xj)-1/2]2}λ3[ij] =6Cov{Xi ,[Fj (Xj )-1/2]2 }
式中，i,j＝1,2且定义Fj(),j＝1,2为变量Xj的分布函数，Where i, j = 1, 2 and define Fj (), j = 1, 2 as the distribution function of variable Xj ,
根据τ2[12]的统计特征同一性将一级子区再细分为多个二级子区，使得每个二级子区的异质性检验指标H||.||<1，异质性指标H||.||的计算公式如下：According to the statistical characteristic identity of τ2[12], the first-level sub-area is further subdivided into multiple second-level sub-areas, so that the heterogeneity test index H||.|| of each second-level sub-area is <1. The calculation formula of the heterogeneity index H||.|| is as follows:
式中，In the formula,
其中为格点i的线性矩协方差系数矩阵，定义in is the linear moment covariance coefficient matrix of grid point i, and is defined as
ni为该子区内第i个格点的卫星资料中的卫星逐日降雨资料的有效年份长度，将‖A‖定义为矩阵A的一个新标准，At是矩阵A的转置矩阵。ni is the effective annual length of the satellite daily rainfall data in the satellite data of the i-th grid point in the sub-area, and ‖A‖ is defined as a new standard of the matrix A, At is the transposed matrix of matrix A.
作为本发明的优选实施方式，具体的，具体的，步骤130包括以下，As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, specifically, step 130 includes the following:
假定二级子区中有N个格点，计算每个格点i的二阶线性矩系数矩阵三阶线性矩系数矩阵/>以及四阶线性矩系数矩阵/>构成矩阵Assuming that there are N grid points in the secondary subarea, calculate the second-order linear moment coefficient matrix of each grid point i Third-order linear moment coefficient matrix/> And the fourth-order linear moment coefficient matrix/> Composition matrix
令：make:
当||Di||大于一致区内格点数N(N≥5)对应的临界值时，认为该格点为不和谐格点，其中N对应的临界值表如下表一：When ||Di || is greater than the critical value corresponding to the number of grid points N (N ≥ 5) in the consistent region, the grid point is considered to be a discordant grid point, where the critical value corresponding to N is shown in Table 1:
表一；Table I;
当二级子区内存在不和谐格点时，获取对不和谐格点的分析验证结果，若分析验证通过则保留至原二级子区，若不通过则剔除出原二级子区，对于不和谐格点的处理方式，可以考虑将其调整至其他区域或者单独分区；若格点的不和谐性被认为是由极端气象事件所造成的，且极值降雨数据经查证为真实值，则保留该格点在当前区域。When there are inharmonious grid points in the secondary sub-area, the analysis and verification results of the inharmonious grid points are obtained. If the analysis and verification pass, they are retained in the original secondary sub-area. If not, they are removed from the original secondary sub-area. For the treatment of inharmonious grid points, it can be considered to adjust them to other areas or separate partitions; if the inharmoniousness of the grid points is considered to be caused by extreme meteorological events, and the extreme rainfall data is verified to be the true value, then the grid points are retained in the current area.
作为本发明的优选实施方式，具体的，步骤140包括，As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, specifically, step 140 includes:
步骤141、假定二级子区中有N个格点，其中第i个格点的年最大日雨量序列的长度为ni，将格点i的年最大日雨量序列分解为共性分量和个性分量，个性分量即格点i年最大日雨量序列的平均值，将格点i的年最大日雨量序列去均值化后即得到反映地区共性的共性分量，利用各格点的共性分量，计算单格点样本线性矩离差系数t(i)、样本线性矩偏态系数以及样本线性矩峰度系数/>按照各格点的序列长度进行加权平均得到区域平均线性矩离差系数tR、偏态系数/>和峰度系数/>Step 141, assuming that there are N grid points in the secondary sub-area, where the length of the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of the i-th grid point is ni , the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of grid point i is decomposed into a common component and an individual component, the individual component being the average value of the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of grid point i, and the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of grid point i is de-averaged to obtain the common component reflecting the commonality of the region, and the common components of each grid point are used to calculate the single grid point sample linear moment deviation coefficient t(i) and the sample linear moment skewness coefficient And the sample linear moment kurtosis coefficient/> The weighted average of the sequence length of each grid point is used to obtain the regional average linear moment deviation coefficient tR and skewness coefficient/> and kurtosis coefficient/>
步骤142、根据区域平均线性矩系数与概率分布函数参数之间的关系，利用蒙特卡洛模拟检验从三参数的广义逻辑斯蒂分布、广义极值分布、广义正态分布、广义帕累托分布和皮尔森III型分布中确定各个二级分区的最佳分布函数，Step 142: According to the relationship between the regional average linear moment coefficient and the probability distribution function parameter, the best distribution function of each secondary partition is determined from the three-parameter generalized logistic distribution, generalized extreme value distribution, generalized normal distribution, generalized Pareto distribution and Pearson III type distribution by using Monte Carlo simulation test.
具体的，计算过程如下，Specifically, the calculation process is as follows:
对于划分的二级子区，假定某种分布线型，利用蒙特卡洛模拟进行Nsim次的模拟，要求每个格点模拟资料系列长度与该格点实测资料系列长度相同。对于第m次模拟结果而言，区域平均线性矩峰度系数的偏差如下所示：For the divided secondary sub-areas, a certain distribution line type is assumed, and the Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform Nsim simulations, requiring that the length of the simulated data series at each grid point is the same as the length of the measured data series at the grid point. For the mth simulation result, the regional average linear moment kurtosis coefficient The deviations are as follows:
相应的模拟峰度系数的标准差为：The corresponding standard deviation of the simulated kurtosis coefficient is:
将拟合优度检验标准的统计量ZDIST定义为：The statistic ZDIST of the goodness of fit test standard is defined as:
式中，为假定的分布函数的峰度系数。In the formula, is the kurtosis coefficient of the assumed distribution function.
若模拟的统计量|ZDIST|≤1.64，则认为拟合结果可接受。且ZDIST越小的分布函数，拟合程度越好。If the simulated statistic |ZDIST |≤1.64, the fitting result is considered acceptable. The smaller the distribution function ZDIST is, the better the fitting degree is.
作为本发明的优选实施方式，具体的，步骤150包括，As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, specifically, step 150 includes:
基于第j个一致区的最优分布函数，即可确定第j个一致区在重现期为T时的频率估计值，即该一致区的地区频率因子qT,j，它反映了一致区内共有的降雨特征；Based on the optimal distribution function of the jth consistent area, the frequency estimate of the jth consistent area when the return period is T can be determined, that is, the regional frequency factor qT,j of the consistent area, which reflects the common rainfall characteristics in the consistent area;
根据下式确定第j个一致区内第i个格点在重现期为T时的降雨频率估计值QT,i,j：The estimated rainfall frequency QT,i,j at the i-th grid point in the j-th consistent area when the return period is T is determined according to the following formula:
式中，为第j个一致区中第i个格点年最大日雨量的历史平均值。In the formula, is the historical average of the annual maximum daily rainfall at the ith grid point in the jth consistent area.
作为本发明的优选实施方式，具体的，步骤160包括，As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, specifically, step 160 includes:
每个雨量站点的站点资料包括每个站点经纬度、高程和搬迁情况，以及站点的历史逐日雨量和逐日平均气温资料。The station data of each rainfall station includes the latitude and longitude, elevation and relocation status of each station, as well as the historical daily rainfall and daily average temperature data of the station.
在本优选实施方式中，在步骤160中，对于研究区域内的雨量站点，收集每个站点经纬度、高程和搬迁情况，以及站点的历史逐日雨量和逐日平均气温资料。构建各站点的年最大日雨量序列及对应的年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列，在完成年最大日雨量序列的质量控制后，重复以上S2至S5步骤，可得到各站点在不同频率下的降雨估计值。In this preferred embodiment, in step 160, for the rainfall stations in the study area, the latitude and longitude, elevation and relocation status of each station, as well as the historical daily rainfall and daily average temperature data of the station are collected. The annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of each station and the corresponding annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence are constructed. After completing the quality control of the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence, the above steps S2 to S5 are repeated to obtain the rainfall estimation values of each station at different frequencies.
作为本发明的优选实施方式，具体的，步骤170中数据融合的过程包括，As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, specifically, the data fusion process in step 170 includes:
步骤171、假设在目标研究区域内共有n个雨量站点，Pg为由n个雨量站点构成的重现期为T时的站点降雨频率估计值序列，Ps为对应的格点降雨频率估计值序列。假定线性回归方程如下：Step 171: Assume that there are n rainfall stations in the target study area,Pg is the station rainfall frequency estimation value sequence composed of n rainfall stations with a return period of T, andPs is the corresponding grid rainfall frequency estimation value sequence. Assume that the linear regression equation is as follows:
Pg＝A×Ps+BPg ＝A×Ps +B
式中，A，B为回归参数，In the formula, A and B are regression parameters,
步骤172、通过最小二乘法进行估计，得到以下形式的回归方程：Step 172: Estimation is performed by the least square method to obtain a regression equation of the following form:
式中，和/>分别为站点降水频率估计值序列和对应的格点降水频率估计值序列的均方差，/>和/>分别为站点降水频率估计值序列和格点降水频率估计值序列的平均值，r为相关系数，其计算公式如下：In the formula, and/> are the mean square error of the station precipitation frequency estimate sequence and the corresponding grid precipitation frequency estimate sequence, respectively, and/> are the average values of the station precipitation frequency estimation value series and the grid precipitation frequency estimation value series, respectively, and r is the correlation coefficient, which is calculated as follows:
由此可得到回归系数：From this we can get the regression coefficient:
步骤173、对回归系数r进行显著性检验，在置信度α＝5％的水平下，根据站点数n，从相关系数检验表中查取临界值rα，在当|r|>rα时，转至步骤174；Step 173, perform a significance test on the regression coefficient r, at a confidence level of α=5%, look up the critical value rα from the correlation coefficient test table according to the number of sites n, and when |r|>rα , go to step 174;
步骤174、将整个目标研究区域的格点降水频率估计值为自变量Ps′，带入Pg′＝A×Ps′+B中，计算得到的Pg′即为目标研究区域校正后的重现期为T时的降水频率估计值。Step 174: Substitute the grid precipitation frequency estimate of the entire target study area as the independent variablePs′ intoPg′ =A×Ps′ +B. The calculatedPg′ is the precipitation frequency estimate of the target study area when the return period is T after correction.
本发明还提出联合卫星与站点资料的降雨频率估计装置，包括：The present invention also proposes a rainfall frequency estimation device combining satellite and station data, comprising:
数据获取模块，用于获取目标研究区域的卫星资料，对所述卫星资料进行筛选以及质量控制得到满足频率计算所需要的每个格点的逐年最大日雨量及其对应的暴雨过程总雨量，进而得到每个格点的年最大日雨量序列及年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列；The data acquisition module is used to obtain satellite data of the target research area, screen and quality control the satellite data to obtain the annual maximum daily rainfall of each grid point and the corresponding total rainfall of the rainstorm process required for frequency calculation, and then obtain the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of each grid point and the annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence;
区域划分模块，用于基于所述卫星资料对目标研究区域进行水文气象一致区划分，得到初步划分的多个一级子区，以及对一级子区进行进一步划分的多个二级子区；A regional division module is used to divide the target research area into hydrological and meteorological consistent areas based on the satellite data, obtain a plurality of primary sub-areas that are initially divided, and further divide the primary sub-areas into a plurality of secondary sub-areas;
不和谐性验证模块，用于对所述二级子区进行一致区不和谐性验证，对并存在不和谐格点的二级子区进行不和谐格点调整，得到调整后的二级子区即一致区；The inharmoniousness verification module is used to verify the inharmoniousness of the secondary sub-area in a consistent area, and to adjust the inharmonious grid points of the secondary sub-area where there are inharmonious grid points, so as to obtain the adjusted secondary sub-area, i.e., the consistent area;
最优分布函数计算模块，用于对所述一致区进行最优分布线型选择得到一致区所对应的最优分布函数；An optimal distribution function calculation module, used for selecting the optimal distribution line type for the consistent area to obtain the optimal distribution function corresponding to the consistent area;
格点降雨频率估计值计算模块，用于基于最优分布函数确定一致区的地区频率因子，基于地区频率因子计算一致区所包含的任意格点的降雨频率估计值；A grid point rainfall frequency estimation value calculation module is used to determine the regional frequency factor of the consistent area based on the optimal distribution function, and calculate the rainfall frequency estimation value of any grid point included in the consistent area based on the regional frequency factor;
其中，计算得到的地区频率因子，与一致区所包含的任意格点的降雨个性分量进行“叠加”，得到该格点的降雨频率估计值，其中降雨个性分量指的是格点年最大日雨量序列的平均值。Among them, the calculated regional frequency factor is "superimposed" with the rainfall individuality component of any grid point contained in the consistent area to obtain the rainfall frequency estimate of the grid point, where the rainfall individuality component refers to the average value of the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of the grid point.
雨量站点降雨频率估计值计算模块，用于获取目标研究区域中每个雨量站点的站点资料，基于所述站点资料构建各雨量站点的年最大日雨量序列及对应的年最大暴雨过程总雨量序列，之后重复运行区域划分模块、不和谐性验证模块、最优分布函数计算模块以及格点降雨频率估计值计算模块，得到不同所述雨量站点的降雨频率估计值；The rainfall frequency estimation value calculation module of the rainfall station is used to obtain the station data of each rainfall station in the target study area, and construct the annual maximum daily rainfall sequence of each rainfall station and the corresponding annual maximum rainstorm process total rainfall sequence based on the station data, and then repeatedly run the regional division module, the inharmony verification module, the optimal distribution function calculation module and the grid rainfall frequency estimation value calculation module to obtain the rainfall frequency estimation values of different rainfall stations;
降水频率估计模块，用于通过线性回归模型，将目标研究区域在重现期为T时的格点的降雨频率估计值和雨量站点的降雨频率估计值进行数据融合，得到目标研究区域校正后的重现期为T时的降水频率估计值。The precipitation frequency estimation module is used to fuse the rainfall frequency estimation values of the grid points in the target study area when the return period is T and the rainfall frequency estimation values of the rainfall stations through a linear regression model to obtain the precipitation frequency estimation values of the target study area when the return period is T after correction.
所述作为分离部件说明的模块可以是或者也可以不是物理上分开的，作为模块显示的部件可以是或者也可以不是物理模块，即可以位于一个地方，或者也可以分布到多个网络模块上。可以根据实际的需要选择其中的部分或者全部模块来实现本实施例中的方案的目的。The modules described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components shown as modules may or may not be physical modules, that is, they may be located in one place or distributed on multiple network modules. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution in this embodiment.
另外，在本发明各个实施例中的各功能模块可以集成在一个处理模块中，也可以是各个模块单独物理存在，也可以两个或两个以上模块集成在一个模块中。上述集成的模块既可以采用硬件的形式实现，也可以采用软件功能模块的形式实现。In addition, each functional module in each embodiment of the present invention may be integrated into one processing module, or each module may exist physically separately, or two or more modules may be integrated into one module. The above integrated modules may be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional modules.
所述集成的模块如果以软件功能模块的形式实现并作为独立的产品销售或使用时，可以存储在一个计算机可读取存储介质中。基于这样的理解，本发明实现上述实施例方法中的全部或部分流程，也可以通过计算机程序来指令相关的硬件来完成，所述的计算机程序可存储于一计算机可读存储的介质中，该计算机程序在被处理器执行时，可实现上述各个方法实施例的步骤。其中，所述计算机程序包括计算机程序代码，所述计算机程序代码可以为源代码形式、对象代码形式、可执行文件或某些中间形式等。所述计算机可读介质可以包括：能够携带所述计算机程序代码的任何实体或系统、记录介质、U盘、移动硬盘、磁碟、光盘、计算机存储器、只读存储器(ROM，Read-Only Memory)、随机存取存储器(RAM，RandomAccess Memory)、电载波信号、电信信号以及软件分发介质等。If the integrated module is implemented in the form of a software function module and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the present invention implements all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment method, and can also be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a computer program. The computer program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and the computer program can implement the steps of the above-mentioned various method embodiments when executed by the processor. Among them, the computer program includes computer program code, and the computer program code can be in source code form, object code form, executable file or some intermediate form. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or system that can carry the computer program code, recording medium, U disk, mobile hard disk, disk, optical disk, computer memory, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), electrical carrier signal, telecommunication signal and software distribution medium, etc.
尽管本发明的描述已经相当详尽且特别对几个所述实施例进行了描述，但其并非旨在局限于任何这些细节或实施例或任何特殊实施例，而是应当将其视作是通过参考所附权利要求考虑到现有技术为这些权利要求提供广义的可能性解释，从而有效地涵盖本发明的预定范围。此外，上文以发明人可预见的实施例对本发明进行描述，其目的是为了提供有用的描述，而那些目前尚未预见的对本发明的非实质性改动仍可代表本发明的等效改动。Although the description of the present invention has been quite detailed and specifically described with respect to several described embodiments, it is not intended to be limited to any of these details or embodiments or any particular embodiment, but should be regarded as providing a broad possible interpretation of these claims in view of the prior art by reference to the appended claims, thereby effectively covering the intended scope of the present invention. In addition, the above description of the present invention is based on the embodiments foreseeable by the inventors, and its purpose is to provide a useful description, and those non-substantial changes to the present invention that have not yet been foreseen may still represent equivalent changes to the present invention.
以上所述，只是本发明的较佳实施例而已，本发明并不局限于上述实施方式，只要其以相同的手段达到本发明的技术效果，都应属于本发明的保护范围。在本发明的保护范围内其技术方案和/或实施方式可以有各种不同的修改和变化。The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. The present invention is not limited to the above implementation. As long as the technical effect of the present invention is achieved by the same means, it should belong to the protection scope of the present invention. Within the protection scope of the present invention, its technical scheme and/or implementation method can have various modifications and changes.
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