技术领域technical field
本发明涉及一种突发性自然灾害的预警防控方法。The invention relates to a method for early warning and prevention of sudden natural disasters.
背景技术Background technique
江西省自然灾害综合风险普查前期工作已基本完成，普查数据繁多、内容广泛、形式多样，全面涵盖江西省地质、地震、水旱、气象、森林火灾等灾害信息，但如何高效使用普查数据，充分发挥国家和省级风险普查系统数据库平台的作用，进一步提升不同突发性自然灾害的预警防控能力，怎样推进风险普查建设和常态化运行等问题尚处于摸索阶段。The preliminary work of Jiangxi Province's natural disaster comprehensive risk census has been basically completed. The census data is extensive, wide-ranging, and diverse in form, comprehensively covering disaster information such as geology, earthquakes, floods and droughts, meteorology, and forest fires in Jiangxi Province. However, how to use the census data efficiently, give full play to the role of the national and provincial risk census system database platforms, and further improve the early warning and prevention capabilities of different sudden natural disasters. How to promote the construction and normalization of risk censuses and other issues are still in the groping stage.
目前江西省区域地质构造强烈，受到构造断裂、地下水、地裂缝等多源机制的综合影响，表生带地质灾害复杂。突发性地质灾害形成机理、区划评估、防控理论及应急救援方面的研究基础极度薄弱，致使工程建设中和运营期的安全性考虑需要由单灾种向多灾种转变，这种转变就要求我们需要通过融合高水平的理论分析、高新技术及交叉综合技术实验手段来研究多灾种成灾机理及其安全应急管理模式。同时自然灾害对于重点地质灾害隐患区的避灾转移、抢险救援力量调配、资源调度、社会力量参与、军警民协同等方面的影响也不可忽视，因此急需应对不同突发性自然灾害下的预警与防控。At present, Jiangxi Province's regional geological structure is strong, and it is affected by multi-source mechanisms such as structural faults, groundwater, and ground fissures, and the geological hazards in the epigenetic zone are complex. The research foundation of sudden geological disaster formation mechanism, zoning assessment, prevention and control theory, and emergency rescue is extremely weak. As a result, the safety considerations during the construction and operation period of the project need to change from single hazards to multiple hazards. This transformation requires us to study the multi-hazard disaster mechanism and its safety emergency management model by integrating high-level theoretical analysis, high-tech and cross-comprehensive technology experiments. At the same time, the impact of natural disasters on disaster avoidance and transfer, emergency rescue force deployment, resource scheduling, social force participation, and military, police and civilian coordination in key geological hazard hidden areas cannot be ignored. Therefore, it is urgent to deal with early warning and prevention and control under different sudden natural disasters.
发明内容Contents of the invention
基于此，本发明提出了一种突发性自然灾害的预警防控方法。Based on this, the present invention proposes a method for early warning and prevention of sudden natural disasters.
本发明提供一种突发性自然灾害的预警防控方法，采用原位综合观测手段，揭示突发性地质灾害的灾前孕育规律与特征，运用聚类分析方法，构建突发性地质灾害案例数据库；同时建立灾害强弱程度的等级划分模型，建立突发性地质灾害超前识别预警方法；通过灾害强弱程度的等级划分模型对超前识别到的突发性地质灾害进行分级预警，最终得到一种基于不同灾害类型演化规律的突发性地质灾害孕育动态预警防控方法。The present invention provides an early warning and prevention method for sudden natural disasters, which uses in-situ comprehensive observation means to reveal the pre-disaster breeding rules and characteristics of sudden geological disasters, and uses cluster analysis methods to construct a case database of sudden geological disasters; at the same time, establishes a classification model of disaster intensity and an early identification and early warning method for sudden geological disasters.
进一步的，以江西省自然灾害一期普查结果为基础，主要针对滑坡、泥石流、坍塌、采空塌陷、地裂缝、岩爆、塌方突发性地质灾害，采用原位综合观测手段。Further, based on the results of the first-phase census of natural disasters in Jiangxi Province, in-situ comprehensive observation methods are mainly used for sudden geological disasters such as landslides, debris flows, collapses, goaf collapses, ground fissures, rockbursts, and landslides.
进一步的，运用聚类分析方法构建突发性地质灾害案例数据库，地质灾害案例数据库包含灾害信息、地质信息、致灾关键因素，防控信息以及预警空间单元。Furthermore, the cluster analysis method is used to construct a case database of sudden geological disasters, which includes disaster information, geological information, key factors causing disasters, prevention and control information, and early warning spatial units.
进一步的，以突发性地质灾害案例数据库为基础，实时更新原位综合观测所得到的各类信息，并根据信息划分相应的危险等级。Further, based on the sudden geological disaster case database, all kinds of information obtained from in-situ comprehensive observations are updated in real time, and the corresponding risk levels are divided according to the information.
进一步的，通过已经建立的突发性地质灾害案例数据库，动态识别重点隐患区域每日灾害强弱程度，对比其灾害实际强弱程度，进而对超前识别到的突发性地质灾害进行分级预警，对不同强弱程度灾害调控前、后各类调控措施对突发性灾害孕育过程的控制机制，建立不同强弱程度灾害孕育过程的调控方法，分析不同工况条件下突发性灾害孕育过程中各类调控措施的控制效果。结合考虑各类调控措施的经济性和实施便利性，确定不同强弱程度灾害孕育过程的最优调控方法。Further, through the established sudden geological disaster case database, dynamically identify the intensity of daily disasters in key hidden areas, compare the actual intensity of the disaster, and then carry out hierarchical early warning of sudden geological disasters identified in advance, control the mechanism of various regulatory measures before and after the regulation of different intensity disasters on the process of sudden disaster breeding, establish the regulation method of different intensity disaster breeding process, and analyze the control effect of various control measures in the process of sudden disaster breeding under different working conditions. Considering the economics and implementation convenience of various control measures, determine the optimal control method for the breeding process of disasters with different degrees of intensity.
与现有技术相比，本发明的优势如下：Compared with prior art, advantage of the present invention is as follows:
本发明的突发性自然灾害的预警防控方法相较于现有技术的优势是，以江西省自然灾害一期普查结果为基础，针对地质构造强烈，受构造断裂、地下水、地裂缝等多源机制的综合影响，易发生各种突发性自然灾害的区域，采用原位综合观测手段，揭示突发性地质灾害的灾前孕育规律与特征，运用聚类分析方法，构建突发性地质灾害案例数据库；同时建立灾害强弱程度的等级划分模型，建立突发性地质灾害超前识别预警方法；并通过灾害强弱程度的等级划分模型对超前识别到的突发性地质灾害进行分级预警，最终得到一种基于不同灾害类型演化规律的突发性地质灾害孕育动态预警防控方法。该方法思路清晰、目标明确、方法形成后对于不同突发性自然灾害的预警防控科学、准确，使得相关工程技术人员可以更好的应对不同突发性自然灾害的预警防控问题。Compared with the prior art, the method for early warning and prevention of sudden natural disasters has the advantages that, based on the results of the first-phase census of natural disasters in Jiangxi Province, aiming at regions where various sudden natural disasters are prone to occur due to the strong geological structure and the comprehensive influence of structural fractures, groundwater, ground fissures, etc. ; and through the classification model of the degree of disaster intensity, the early-identified sudden geological disasters are graded and early-warned, and finally a dynamic early warning and prevention method for sudden geological disasters based on the evolution law of different disaster types is obtained. The method has clear thinking, clear goals, and scientific and accurate early warning and prevention of different sudden natural disasters after the method is formed, so that relevant engineering and technical personnel can better deal with the early warning and prevention of different sudden natural disasters.
图1为本发明的突发性自然灾害的预警防控方法的框架示意图；Fig. 1 is the frame schematic diagram of the early warning prevention and control method of sudden natural disaster of the present invention;
图2为图1所示突发性自然灾害的动态防控方法框架示意图。Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of the framework of the dynamic prevention and control method for sudden natural disasters shown in Figure 1.
实施方式Implementation
下面将结合本发明实例中的附图，对本发明实例中的技术方案进行清楚，完整的描述，所描述的实例仅仅是本发明一部分实施例，而不是全部的实施例。基于本发明中的实施例，本领域普通技术人员在没有做出创造性劳动前提下所获得的所有其它实施例，都属于本发明保护的范围。The technical solutions in the examples of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the examples of the present invention. The described examples are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
请参阅图1-图2，本发明提供一种突发性自然灾害的预警防控方法，采用原位综合观测手段，揭示突发性地质灾害的灾前孕育规律与特征，运用聚类分析方法，构建突发性地质灾害案例数据库；同时建立灾害强弱程度的等级划分模型，建立突发性地质灾害超前识别预警方法；通过灾害强弱程度的等级划分模型对超前识别到的突发性地质灾害进行分级预警，最终得到一种基于不同灾害类型演化规律的突发性地质灾害孕育动态预警防控方法。Please refer to Fig. 1-Fig. 2, the present invention provides a method for early warning and prevention of sudden natural disasters, which adopts in-situ comprehensive observation means to reveal the pre-disaster breeding rules and characteristics of sudden geological disasters, and uses cluster analysis method to build a case database of sudden geological disasters; at the same time, it establishes a classification model of disaster intensity, and establishes a method for early identification and early warning of sudden geological disasters; through the classification model of disaster intensity, it performs hierarchical early warning of sudden geological disasters identified in advance, and finally obtains a dynamic early warning and prevention method for sudden geological disasters based on the evolution law of different types of disasters .
进一步的，以江西省自然灾害一期普查结果为基础，主要针对滑坡、泥石流、坍塌、采空塌陷、地裂缝、岩爆、塌方突发性地质灾害，采用原位综合观测手段。Further, based on the results of the first-phase census of natural disasters in Jiangxi Province, in-situ comprehensive observation methods are mainly used for sudden geological disasters such as landslides, debris flows, collapses, goaf collapses, ground fissures, rockbursts, and landslides.
进一步的，运用聚类分析方法构建突发性地质灾害案例数据库，地质灾害案例数据库包含灾害信息、地质信息、致灾关键因素，防控信息以及预警空间单元。Furthermore, the cluster analysis method is used to construct a case database of sudden geological disasters, which includes disaster information, geological information, key factors causing disasters, prevention and control information, and early warning spatial units.
进一步的，以突发性地质灾害案例数据库为基础，实时更新原位综合观测所得到的各类信息，并根据信息划分相应的危险等级。Further, based on the sudden geological disaster case database, all kinds of information obtained from in-situ comprehensive observations are updated in real time, and the corresponding risk levels are divided according to the information.
进一步的，通过已经建立的突发性地质灾害案例数据库，动态识别重点隐患区域每日灾害强弱程度，对比其灾害实际强弱程度，进而对超前识别到的突发性地质灾害进行分级预警，对不同强弱程度灾害调控前、后各类调控措施对突发性灾害孕育过程的控制机制，建立不同强弱程度灾害孕育过程的调控方法，分析不同工况条件下突发性灾害孕育过程中各类调控措施的控制效果。结合考虑各类调控措施的经济性和实施便利性，确定不同强弱程度灾害孕育过程的最优调控方法。Further, through the established sudden geological disaster case database, dynamically identify the intensity of daily disasters in key hidden areas, compare the actual intensity of the disaster, and then carry out hierarchical early warning of sudden geological disasters identified in advance, control the mechanism of various regulatory measures before and after the regulation of different intensity disasters on the process of sudden disaster breeding, establish the regulation method of different intensity disaster breeding process, and analyze the control effect of various control measures in the process of sudden disaster breeding under different working conditions. Considering the economics and implementation convenience of various control measures, determine the optimal control method for the breeding process of disasters with different degrees of intensity.
具体的，如图1所示，以江西省自然灾害一期普查结果为基础，针对滑坡、泥石流、坍塌、采空塌陷、地裂缝、岩爆、塌方等突发性地质灾害，采用原位综合观测手段，揭示突发性地质灾害的灾前孕育规律与特征；Specifically, as shown in Figure 1, based on the results of the first-phase census of natural disasters in Jiangxi Province, for sudden geological disasters such as landslides, debris flows, collapses, goaf collapses, ground fissures, rockbursts, landslides, etc., comprehensive in-situ observation methods are used to reveal the pre-disaster breeding laws and characteristics of sudden geological disasters;
如图1、2所示，运用聚类分析方法，构建突发性地质灾害案例数据库，不同类型地质灾害案例数据库将会随着普查工作的进行和重点隐患区域的监测而不断丰富，地质灾害案例数据库包含灾害信息、地质信息、致灾关键因素，防控信息以及预警空间单元等内容。寻找不同类型不同等级灾害孕育过程的每个致灾参数的特征及其演化规律，从而根据研究结果建立相应指标对灾害风险进行预警；As shown in Figures 1 and 2, cluster analysis methods are used to construct a case database of sudden geological disasters. The case database of different types of geological disasters will be continuously enriched with the progress of the census and the monitoring of key hidden danger areas. Find the characteristics and evolution rules of each disaster-causing parameter in the breeding process of different types and different levels of disasters, so as to establish corresponding indicators based on the research results to provide early warning of disaster risks;
如图1示，建立灾害强弱程度的等级划分模型，针对不同类型、不同强弱程度、不同致灾因素等方面对普查结果中的自然灾害进行等级划分，以江西省自然灾害综合普查结果为基础，确定重点灾害风险区域，及时潜在的风险事件类型，确定其可能出现的位置区域，并以该区域作为风险评估单元，实时预测或估计该评估单元内潜在风险事件的发生可能性，并估计该风险事件可能造成的各类潜在后果损失，在此基础上确定风险等级，评价单元内的风险水平；As shown in Figure 1, establish a classification model of the degree of disaster intensity, and classify the natural disasters in the census results according to different types, different degrees of intensity, and different disaster-causing factors. Based on the results of the comprehensive census of natural disasters in Jiangxi Province, determine the key disaster risk areas, timely potential risk event types, and determine their possible location areas. Use this area as a risk assessment unit to predict or estimate the possibility of potential risk events in this assessment unit in real time. level of risk;
如图1所示，基于某区域上关键致灾因素演化规律与该区域上灾害等级的关系，建立突发性地质灾害超前识别预警方法，利用预警单元内致灾信息演化规律预估该灾害单元内不同类型灾害的等级及其概率，同时根据后续监测到的信息对灾害等级及其概率的预警结果进行动态更新，从而提高突发性地质灾害预警效果；As shown in Figure 1, based on the relationship between the evolution law of key disaster-causing factors in a certain area and the level of disasters in the area, an early warning method for sudden geological disasters is established, and the level and probability of different types of disasters in the disaster unit are estimated by using the evolution law of disaster information in the early warning unit.
如图2所示，通过已经建立的突发性地质灾害案例数据库，动态识别重点隐患区域每日灾害强弱程度，对比其灾害实际强弱程度，进而对超前识别到的突发性地质灾害进行分级预警，对不同强弱程度灾害调控前、后各类调控措施对突发性灾害孕育过程的控制机制。建立不同强弱程度灾害孕育过程的调控方法，分析不同工况条件下突发性灾害孕育过程中各类调控措施的控制效果。结合考虑各类调控措施的经济性和实施便利性，确定不同强弱程度灾害孕育过程的最优调控方法；As shown in Figure 2, through the established case database of sudden geological disasters, the daily intensity of disasters in key hidden areas can be dynamically identified, and the actual intensity of the disasters can be compared, so as to carry out hierarchical early warning of sudden geological disasters identified in advance, and the control mechanism of various regulatory measures before and after the regulation of different intensity disasters on the process of sudden disasters. Establish control methods for the breeding process of disasters with different degrees of intensity, and analyze the control effects of various control measures in the process of sudden disaster breeding under different working conditions. Considering the economy and implementation convenience of various control measures, determine the optimal control method for the breeding process of disasters with different degrees of intensity;
最后通过原位观测-等级区划-分级预警-超前预警防控的手段得到一种突发性自然灾害的预警防控方法。Finally, a method of early warning and prevention of sudden natural disasters is obtained by means of in-situ observation-level zoning-level early warning-advanced early warning and prevention.
本发明的突发性自然灾害的预警防控方法相较于现有技术的优势是，以江西省自然灾害一期普查结果为基础，针对地质构造强烈，受构造断裂、地下水、地裂缝等多源机制的综合影响，易发生各种突发性自然灾害的区域，采用原位综合观测手段，揭示突发性地质灾害的灾前孕育规律与特征，运用聚类分析方法，构建突发性地质灾害案例数据库；同时建立灾害强弱程度的等级划分模型，建立突发性地质灾害超前识别预警方法；并通过灾害强弱程度的等级划分模型对超前识别到的突发性地质灾害进行分级预警，最终得到一种基于不同灾害类型演化规律的突发性地质灾害孕育动态预警防控方法。该方法思路清晰、目标明确、方法形成后对于不同突发性自然灾害的预警防控科学、准确，使得相关工程技术人员可以更好的应对不同突发性自然灾害的预警防控问题。Compared with the prior art, the method for early warning and prevention of sudden natural disasters has the advantages that, based on the results of the first phase of the general survey of natural disasters in Jiangxi Province, aiming at areas where the geological structure is strong and affected by multi-source mechanisms such as structural fractures, groundwater, and ground fissures, and where various sudden natural disasters are prone to occur, the in-situ comprehensive observation method is used to reveal the pre-disaster breeding laws and characteristics of sudden geological disasters, and the cluster analysis method is used to construct a case database of sudden geological disasters; at the same time, a classification model for the degree of disaster intensity is established, and an early identification and early warning method for sudden geological disasters is established. ; and through the classification model of the degree of disaster intensity, the early-identified sudden geological disasters are graded and early-warned, and finally a dynamic early warning and prevention method for sudden geological disasters based on the evolution law of different disaster types is obtained. The method has clear thinking and clear goals, and the scientific and accurate early warning and prevention of different sudden natural disasters after the method is formed, so that relevant engineering and technical personnel can better deal with the early warning and prevention of different sudden natural disasters.
最后应说明的是：以上所述仅为本发明的优选实施例而已，并不限于本发明，尽管参照前述实施例对本发明进行了详细的说明，对于本领域的技术人员来说，其依然可以对前述实施例所记载的技术方案进行修改，或者对其中部分技术特征进行等同替换，凡在本发明的精神和原则之内，所做的任何修改、等同替换、改进等，均应包含在本发明的保护范围之内。Finally, it should be noted that the above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and is not limited to the present invention. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art can modify the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or perform equivalent replacements to some of the technical features. Within the spirit and principles of the present invention, any modifications, equivalent replacements, improvements, etc., should be included within the protection scope of the present invention.
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202310458299.4ACN116468180A (en) | 2023-04-26 | 2023-04-26 | A method for early warning and prevention of sudden natural disasters |
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202310458299.4ACN116468180A (en) | 2023-04-26 | 2023-04-26 | A method for early warning and prevention of sudden natural disasters |
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN116468180Atrue CN116468180A (en) | 2023-07-21 |
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202310458299.4APendingCN116468180A (en) | 2023-04-26 | 2023-04-26 | A method for early warning and prevention of sudden natural disasters |
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN116468180A (en) |
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN118395265A (en)* | 2024-04-25 | 2024-07-26 | 应急管理部大数据中心 | An accident analysis and early warning method and system based on disaster accident cases |
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN118395265A (en)* | 2024-04-25 | 2024-07-26 | 应急管理部大数据中心 | An accident analysis and early warning method and system based on disaster accident cases |
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN113688459B (en) | Construction site safety management system based on BIM and AI | |
| CN102628373B (en) | Impact ground pressure split source comprehensive early-warning method of coal mine | |
| Lee et al. | Dynamic analysis of construction safety risk and visual tracking of key factors based on behavior-based safety and building information modeling | |
| Duan et al. | Cascading vulnerability analysis of unsafe behaviors of construction workers from the perspective of network modeling | |
| CN104317637A (en) | Multi-agent-based virtual miner safety behavior modeling and emergency simulation system | |
| CN104899681B (en) | Outburst prevention dynamic management and analysis method and system | |
| CN113919618A (en) | Construction management method of underground building based on BIM technology | |
| CN106251240A (en) | Power transmission network method for early warning based on big data | |
| CN107067129A (en) | Way and structures risk case possibility acquisition methods and system based on grid | |
| Yao et al. | Spatial-temporal dynamics of urban fire incidents: a case study of Nanjing, China | |
| CN107274324A (en) | A kind of method that accident risk assessment is carried out based on cloud service | |
| CN116468180A (en) | A method for early warning and prevention of sudden natural disasters | |
| Yuan et al. | Key technologies of the emergency platform in China | |
| Niu et al. | Risk coupling analysis of causal factors in construction fall-from-height accidents | |
| Jin et al. | The construction of builder safety supervision system based on CPS | |
| CN119476802A (en) | A method for predicting the risk of coal mine hidden disasters caused by superposition of multiple source factors | |
| Li et al. | Modified Stochastic Petri Net‐Based Modeling and Optimization of Emergency Rescue Processes during Coal Mine Accidents | |
| CN117057601B (en) | Non-coal mine safety monitoring and early warning system based on Internet of Things | |
| Fan et al. | Representation, mining and analysis of unsafe behaviour based on pan-scene data | |
| Jin et al. | Application methodology of big data for emergency management | |
| CN107818425A (en) | A kind of dangerous evaluation method of gas explosion at longwall face | |
| Wang et al. | Risk pre-control mechanism of mines based on evidence-based safety management and safety big data | |
| Diange et al. | Research on the construction of civil airport safety management system based on digital twin technology | |
| Yan et al. | Assessment of fire risk in central business district-taking yujiapu of tianjin city as example | |
| Ju | Establishment and Application of City Safety Assessment Model Based on Risk Matrix |
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination |