技术领域Technical Field
本发明涉及信息物理融合电力系统和弹性评估的技术领域，尤其是指一种冰灾下信息物理融合输电网的弹性评估方法。The present invention relates to the technical field of cyber-physical fusion power system and resilience assessment, and in particular to a resilience assessment method for a cyber-physical fusion power transmission network under ice disasters.
背景技术Background technique
冰灾天气是一种极端的自然气象灾害，其过境的输电网区域极易因为冰冻时间长和覆冰强度大而发生倒塔断线、跳闸、导线舞动、设备损坏、电网解列、大面积停电等事故。为此，亟需从极端事件的角度对电力系统的抵御恢复能力进行研究，建设具有“自愈”能力的“弹性电网”。Ice disasters are an extreme natural meteorological disaster. The transmission grid areas where they pass through are very likely to experience accidents such as tower collapse, line breakage, tripping, conductor swaying, equipment damage, grid disconnection, and large-scale power outages due to long freezing time and high ice coverage. Therefore, it is urgent to study the resistance and recovery capabilities of the power system from the perspective of extreme events and build a "resilient power grid" with "self-healing" capabilities.
针对上述需求，唐文虎(唐文虎,杨毅豪,李雅晶,等.极端气象灾害下输电系统的弹性评估及其提升措施研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2020,40(07):2244-2254+2403.)等人提出一种考虑极端气象灾害对输电网影响的弹性评估框架，但只考虑了物理层电网故障情况。In response to the above needs, Tang Wenhu (Tang Wenhu, Yang Yihao, Li Yajing, et al. Research on resilience assessment and improvement measures of transmission systems under extreme meteorological disasters [J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2020, 40(07): 2244-2254+2403.) et al. proposed a resilience assessment framework that considers the impact of extreme meteorological disasters on the transmission network, but only considers the physical layer grid failure situation.
实际上，极端气象灾害对输电网的破坏不仅停留在物理层面。WANG J(WANG J，SUY，ZHOU J.Practice and experience in dispatching of Southern Power Grid duringrare ice disaster at beginning of year 2008[C]//the 4th InternationalConference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and PowerTechnologies(DRPT)，July 6-9，2011，Weihai，China.)等人指出，在2008年南方大冰灾中，大量OPGW断线，导致灾时大范围电力通信中断，严重影响电网的响应调整。因此，冰灾下针对输电网的弹性研究，需要充分对信息网络与物理网络的耦合关系，进行深入准确的剖析。In fact, the damage caused by extreme weather disasters to the power grid does not only stay at the physical level. Wang J (WANG J, SUY, ZHOU J. Practice and experience in dispatching of Southern Power Grid during rare ice disaster at beginning of year 2008 [C] // the 4th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT), July 6-9, 2011, Weihai, China.) et al. pointed out that during the 2008 southern ice disaster, a large number of OPGWs were disconnected, resulting in a large-scale power communication interruption during the disaster, which seriously affected the response and adjustment of the power grid. Therefore, the study of the resilience of the power grid under ice disasters requires a thorough and accurate analysis of the coupling relationship between the information network and the physical network.
针对以上问题，刘瑞环(刘瑞环,陈晨,刘菲,等.极端自然灾害下考虑信息-物理耦合的电力系统弹性提升策略：技术分析与研究展望[J].电机与控制学报,2022,26(01):9-23.)等人概述了信息物理耦合性的研究方法和电力信息物理融合系统的弹性提升方法，但没有对信息物理融合电力系统的弹性评估方法展开具体的阐述，也没有给出具体的仿真方法。刘天浩(刘天浩,朱元振,孙润稼,等.极端自然灾害下电力信息物理系统韧性增强策略[J].电力系统自动化,2021,45(03):9.)等人提出了一种电力信息物理系统应对极端自然灾害的韧性增强策略，但其关键技术为概率模型，缺乏对灾时响应和灾后恢复的仿真模拟，也缺乏对输电网信息与物理的耦合分析。上海理工大学韩冬(韩冬,叶磊,孙伟卿,张垠,陈金涛,赵舫.电力信息物理融合系统弹性提升策略求解方法[P].上海市：CN108985566B,2021-07-13.)公开了一种电力信息物理融合系统弹性提升策略求解方法，但该方法主要针对信息攻击安全领域，并非极端气象灾害。In response to the above problems, Liu Ruihuan (Liu Ruihuan, Chen Chen, Liu Fei, et al. Power system resilience enhancement strategy considering cyber-physical coupling under extreme natural disasters: technical analysis and research prospects [J]. Journal of Electric Machines and Control, 2022, 26(01): 9-23.) et al. outlined the research methods of cyber-physical coupling and the resilience enhancement methods of power cyber-physical fusion systems, but did not elaborate on the resilience assessment methods of cyber-physical fusion power systems, nor did they give specific simulation methods. Liu Tianhao (Liu Tianhao, Zhu Yuanzhen, Sun Runjia, et al. Resilience enhancement strategy for power cyber-physical systems under extreme natural disasters [J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2021, 45(03): 9.) et al. proposed a resilience enhancement strategy for power cyber-physical systems to cope with extreme natural disasters, but its key technology is a probabilistic model, lacking simulation of disaster response and post-disaster recovery, and lacking analysis of the coupling between information and physics of the transmission network. Han Dong from Shanghai University of Technology (Han Dong, Ye Lei, Sun Weiqing, Zhang Yin, Chen Jintao, Zhao Fang. Solution method for resilience improvement strategy of power information-physical fusion system [P]. Shanghai: CN108985566B, 2021-07-13.) disclosed a solution method for resilience improvement strategy of power information-physical fusion system, but this method mainly targets the field of information attack security, not extreme meteorological disasters.
发明内容Summary of the invention
本发明的目的在于克服现有技术的缺点与不足，提出了一种冰灾下信息物理融合输电网的弹性评估方法，可以有效地结合电力网和通信网的特征，并根据冰灾的预报信息，更准确地反映信息物理输电网的受灾情况，为后续的弹性提升策略研究奠定基础。The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the shortcomings and deficiencies of the prior art and propose a resilience assessment method for an information-physical fusion transmission network under ice disasters. The method can effectively combine the characteristics of the power grid and the communication network and more accurately reflect the disaster situation of the information-physical transmission network based on the forecast information of the ice disaster, thus laying the foundation for subsequent research on resilience enhancement strategies.
为实现上述目的，本发明所提供的技术方案为：一种冰灾下信息物理融合输电网的弹性评估方法，包括以下步骤：To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a technical solution: a method for evaluating the resilience of a cyber-physical fusion transmission network under an ice disaster, comprising the following steps:
1)建立OPGW作为通信介质的信息物理融合输电网模型；1) Establish a cyber-physical fusion transmission network model with OPGW as the communication medium;
针对以OPGW电缆作为唯一通信介质的输电网，基于输电网信息网络与输电网物理网络具有同塔建设的特征，映射建立所述信息物理融合输电网模型；For the transmission network using OPGW cable as the only communication medium, based on the feature that the information network and the physical network of the transmission network are built on the same tower, the information-physical fusion transmission network model is mapped and established;
2)冰灾仿真初始化：根据气象预测信息，获取冰灾数据，设置仿真时间t的初始值为0，单位：h；2) Initialization of ice disaster simulation: According to the meteorological forecast information, obtain ice disaster data and set the initial value of simulation time t to 0, unit: h;
3)判断冰灾是否已过境，若是，则跳转至步骤5)；若否，则仿真时间推进一个仿真时刻，并以冰灾覆冰厚度为致灾因子，仿真输电网支路的故障情况，执行步骤4)；3) Determine whether the ice disaster has passed. If so, jump to step 5); if not, advance the simulation time by one simulation moment, and use the ice thickness of the ice disaster as the disaster factor to simulate the fault condition of the transmission network branch, and execute step 4);
4)进行信息物理融合输电网的响应，仿真输电网故障后的响应调整情况，具体是在输电网信息网络与输电网物理网络发生故障或被修复时，模拟输电网响应调整的过程，调整后跳转至步骤3)；4) Performing the response of the cyber-physical fusion transmission network and simulating the response adjustment after the transmission network failure. Specifically, when the information network and the physical network of the transmission network fail or are repaired, simulating the transmission network response adjustment process, and jumping to step 3 after adjustment;
5)判断检修是否结束，若结束，跳转至步骤7)；若未结束，模拟冰灾过境后输电网检修恢复过程，执行步骤6)；5) Determine whether the maintenance is completed. If it is completed, jump to step 7); if it is not completed, simulate the maintenance and recovery process of the transmission network after the ice disaster passes, and execute step 6);
6)再次执行信息物理融合输电网的响应，仿真输电网故障修复后的响应调整情况，调整后跳转至步骤5)；6) Execute the response of the cyber-physical fusion transmission network again, simulate the response adjustment after the transmission network fault is repaired, and jump to step 5) after adjustment;
7)采用蒙特卡洛法评估信息物理融合输电网弹性；7) Using Monte Carlo method to evaluate the resilience of cyber-physical integrated transmission grid;
判断蒙特卡洛仿真次数n是否达到预设的N次，若n≤N，则再次仿真，并跳转至步骤2)；若n＞N，则进行弹性指标计算，量化冰灾下输电网的弹性。Determine whether the number of Monte Carlo simulations n reaches the preset N times. If n≤N, simulate again and jump to step 2); if n＞N, calculate the elasticity index to quantify the elasticity of the transmission network under ice disasters.
进一步，所述步骤1)包括以下步骤：Further, the step 1) comprises the following steps:
构建物理网络：由多个母线节点与多条物理支路构成，每个母线节点代表一个变电站，每条物理支路代表连接母线的架空输电线路；Build a physical network: It consists of multiple bus nodes and multiple physical branches. Each bus node represents a substation, and each physical branch represents an overhead transmission line connecting the bus.
构建信息网络：由多个信息节点与多条信息支路构成，每个信息节点代表一个变电站，每条信息支路代表连接变电站的OPGW，由变压器相连接的所述母线节点视为同一个信息节点，信息网络的架构与物理网络的架构存在映射关系；Build an information network: It consists of multiple information nodes and multiple information branches. Each information node represents a substation, and each information branch represents an OPGW connected to the substation. The bus nodes connected by the transformer are regarded as the same information node. There is a mapping relationship between the architecture of the information network and the architecture of the physical network.
对物理网络和信息网络进行栅格化，栅格化后输电网的每个栅格单元由一个物理单元与一个信息单元组成。The physical network and the information network are gridded. After gridding, each grid unit of the transmission network consists of a physical unit and an information unit.
进一步，所述步骤3)包括以下步骤：Further, the step 3) comprises the following steps:
3.1)判断冰灾是否过境，若过境，则跳转至步骤5)；若未过境，则仿真时间推进一个仿真步长更新冰灾位置；3.1) Determine whether the ice disaster has passed through. If so, jump to step 5); if not, advance the simulation time by one simulation step to update the ice disaster position;
3.2)计算各物理单元和信息单元时刻t下的覆冰厚度R(t)，根据覆冰厚度R(t)计算各物理单元和信息单元的各类故障概率，并用蒙特卡洛法，抽样模拟各类故障是否发生，故障的模拟过程如下：3.2) Calculate the ice thickness R(t) of each physical unit and information unit at time t, calculate the probability of various types of failures of each physical unit and information unit according to the ice thickness R(t), and use the Monte Carlo method to sample and simulate whether various types of failures occur. The simulation process of the failure is as follows:
设X为某一类故障的运行状态变量，X＝1表示工作态，X＝0表示故障态，p为该类故障发生的概率，由计算机产生一个[0,1]的随机数r，根据r与p的大小关系，模拟该类故障是否发生：Let X be the operating state variable of a certain type of fault, X=1 represents the working state, X=0 represents the fault state, p is the probability of occurrence of this type of fault, and a random number r [0,1] is generated by the computer. According to the relationship between r and p, simulate whether this type of fault occurs:
3.3)对于某个物理单元e，绝缘子闪络、输电线路断线、输电杆塔倒塔中任意一类故障发生，该物理单元运行状态为故障状态：3.3) For a physical unit e, if any of the following faults occurs: insulator flashover, transmission line disconnection, or transmission tower collapse, the operation state of the physical unit is a fault state:
式中，表示物理单元e处于故障状态，表示物理单元e处于工作状态；分别表示物理单元e的绝缘子、输电线路、输电杆塔的运行状态，为0表示故障状态，为1表示工作状态；In the formula, Indicates that physical unit e is in a faulty state. Indicates that the physical unit e is in working state; Respectively represent the operating status of the insulator, transmission line, and transmission tower of the physical unit e, 0 represents a fault state, and 1 represents a working state;
对于某个信息单元a，OPGW断线、输电杆塔倒塔中任意一类故障发生，该信息单元运行状态为故障状态：For a certain information unit a, if any of the following faults occurs, such as OPGW disconnection or transmission tower collapse, the operation status of the information unit is a fault status:
式中，表示信息单元a处于故障状态，表示信息单元a处于工作状态；分别表示信息单元a的OPGW、输电杆塔的运行状态，为0表示故障状态，为1表示工作状态，因为输电网信息网络与输电网物理网络具有同塔建设的特征，因此对于对应的物理单元和信息单元，有In the formula, Indicates that information unit a is in a faulty state. Indicates that information unit a is in working state; They represent the operating status of the OPGW and transmission tower of information unit a respectively. 0 represents the fault status and 1 represents the working status. Because the information network of the transmission network and the physical network of the transmission network have the characteristics of being built on the same tower, for the corresponding physical unit and information unit,
3.4)一条物理支路由多个物理单元组成，对于某条物理支路k，该支路上任意物理单元发生故障，该支路运行状态为故障状态：3.4) A physical branch consists of multiple physical units. For a physical branch k, if any physical unit on the branch fails, the operation state of the branch is a failure state:
式中，为物理支路k栅格化后的单元数；表示物理支路k处于故障状态，表示物理支路k处于工作状态；In the formula, is the number of cells after gridding of physical branch k; Indicates that physical branch k is in a faulty state. Indicates that physical branch k is in working state;
一条信息支路由多个信息单元组成，对于某条信息支路q，该支路上任意信息单元发生故障，该支路运行状态为故障状态：An information branch consists of multiple information units. For an information branch q, if any information unit on the branch fails, the operation state of the branch is a failure state:
式中，为信息支路q栅格化后的单元数；表示信息支路q处于故障状态，表示信息支路q处于工作状态；In the formula, is the number of cells after gridding of information branch q; Indicates that the information branch q is in a fault state. Indicates that the information branch q is in working state;
基于输电网信息网络与输电网物理网络具有同塔建设的特征，物理支路与信息支路的栅格化单元一致，因此对于对应的物理支路和信息支路，有：Based on the fact that the information network and the physical network of the transmission network are built on the same tower, the grid units of the physical branch and the information branch are consistent. Therefore, for the corresponding physical branch and information branch, there are:
进一步，在步骤4)中，信息物理融合输电网的响应需考虑信息网络故障对物理网络故障的扩大作用；Furthermore, in step 4), the response of the cyber-physical converged transmission network needs to consider the amplification effect of information network failure on physical network failure;
上述信息网络故障包括监视失效与控制失效：a)监视失效为控制中心无法通过监视获知故障的发生，即故障单元所在支路两侧母线节点均与控制中心所在母线节点失联，此时故障单元所在支路两侧本地保护装置自动切除，但故障报告无法上传至控制中心；b)控制失效为控制中心所在母线节点与待控母线节点失联，控制中心无法调整该母线节点上的设备状态，该设备继续维持上一时刻状态，无法维持时由本地保护装置自动切除；其中，上述失联为两个母线节点之间不存在正常通信链路；The above-mentioned information network failure includes monitoring failure and control failure: a) Monitoring failure means that the control center cannot be informed of the occurrence of the fault through monitoring, that is, the bus nodes on both sides of the branch where the faulty unit is located are disconnected from the bus node where the control center is located. At this time, the local protection devices on both sides of the branch where the faulty unit is located are automatically cut off, but the fault report cannot be uploaded to the control center; b) Control failure means that the bus node where the control center is located is disconnected from the bus node to be controlled, and the control center cannot adjust the status of the equipment on the bus node. The equipment continues to maintain the status at the last moment. When it cannot be maintained, the local protection device automatically cuts off; Among them, the above-mentioned loss of connection means that there is no normal communication link between the two bus nodes;
所述步骤4)包括以下步骤：The step 4) comprises the following steps:
4.1)持续判断输电网中是否存在潮流越限、电压跌落或频率过高过低故障，若存在，则本地保护自动切除故障，并上传故障信息，直到输电网中不存在新的故障；4.1) Continuously determine whether there is a power flow over-limit, voltage drop, or over- or under-frequency fault in the transmission network. If so, the local protection automatically removes the fault and uploads the fault information until there is no new fault in the transmission network;
4.2)控制中心根据是否收到故障报告或检修完成报告进行主动响应，若收不到故障报告，则无操作；若收到，则进行最小加权负荷削减计算，调整输电网可控母线节点上的发电机、负荷和开关状态，其数学优化模型如下：4.2) The control center takes the initiative to respond based on whether it receives a fault report or a maintenance completion report. If it does not receive a fault report, no action is taken. If it does receive one, it performs a minimum weighted load reduction calculation to adjust the generator, load, and switch status on the controllable busbar node of the transmission network. The mathematical optimization model is as follows:
最小化minimize
约束条件Restrictions
式中，为负荷j负荷重要度，分别为时刻t下发电机i有功注入量、负荷j有功负荷量、负荷j有功负荷削减量，F(S(t))、Pg(t)、Pd(t)、ΔPd(t)分别为时刻t下的有功功率向量、发电机有功注入向量、有功负荷向量、负荷有功削减向量；A(S(t))为输电网的直流PTDF矩阵，表征故障状态S(t)下的有功潮流与节点注入有功功率之间的关系；和为发电机i的最小、最大有功功率；和τ分别为发电机和负荷功率辅助整数变量，和分别为上一个仿真时刻下发电机i有功注入量和负荷j有功负荷削减量，Fk和分别为物理支路k的实时和最大传输有功功率；上述与有功功率相关变量，单位：MW；分别为发电机母线、负荷母线、支路的集合；分别为可控发电机母线、不可控的发电机母线、可控负荷母线、不可控的负荷母线的集合，满足和In the formula, is the load importance of load j, are the active power injection amount of generator i, the active power load amount of load j, and the active power reduction amount of load j at time t, respectively; F(S(t)),Pg (t),Pd (t), andΔPd (t) are the active power vector, generator active power injection vector, active power load vector, and load active power reduction vector at time t, respectively; A(S(t)) is the DC PTDF matrix of the transmission network, which represents the relationship between the active power flow and the node injected active power under the fault state S(t); and is the minimum and maximum active power of generator i; and τ are auxiliary integer variables for generator and load power, respectively, andare the active power injection of generator i and the active power reduction of load j at the last simulation moment, respectively. are the real-time and maximum transmission active powers of physical branch k respectively; the above variables related to active power, unit: MW; They are respectively the collection of generator bus, load bus and branch; are respectively the set of controllable generator bus, uncontrollable generator bus, controllable load bus, and uncontrollable load bus, satisfying and
4.3)信息物理融合输电网响应调整结束后，跳转至步骤3)。4.3) After the cyber-physical fusion transmission network response adjustment is completed, jump to step 3).
进一步，所述步骤5)包括以下步骤：Further, the step 5) comprises the following steps:
5.1)判断输电网检修是否结束，若是，则跳转至步骤6)；若否，则仍有单元需要检修，仿真时间推进一个仿真时刻；5.1) Determine whether the transmission network maintenance is completed. If so, jump to step 6); if not, there are still units that need maintenance, and the simulation time advances one simulation time;
5.2)对所有正在检修的故障单元b，其检修总时间综合考虑气象条件、故障位置、检修中心位置、检修路程、检修队伍规模、故障类型和检修顺序的因素，表示为：5.2) For all faulty units b under repair, the total repair time is Taking into account the factors of meteorological conditions, fault location, maintenance center location, maintenance distance, maintenance team size, fault type and maintenance sequence, it is expressed as:
式中，为检修总时间，为修复时间，为路程时间，单位：h；Db为故障位置与检修中心之间的直线距离，单位：km；vcar为检修队伍的平均车速，单位km/h，m为天气影响因子，无量纲；In the formula, is the total maintenance time, To repair time, is the travel time, unit: h; Db is the straight-line distance between the fault location and the maintenance center, unit: km; vcar is the average speed of the maintenance team, unit: km/h, m is the weather impact factor, dimensionless;
5.3)故障单元检修：对所有正在检修的故障单元b，检修总时间与累计检修时间比较，判断是否存在刚完成检修的检修队，若是则将其状态置为空闲；5.3) Faulty unit maintenance: For all faulty units b being repaired, the total maintenance time Compare with the accumulated maintenance time to determine whether there is a maintenance team that has just completed maintenance. If so, set its status to idle;
5.4)判断是否存在未派单的故障，若不存在，则跳转至步骤6)；5.4) Determine whether there is any unassigned fault. If not, jump to step 6);
5.5)判断是否存在空闲检修队，若不存在，则跳转至步骤6)；若存在，则对其派遣新的检修任务；5.5) Determine whether there is an idle maintenance team. If not, jump to step 6); if so, assign a new maintenance task to it;
5.6)对新的检修任务，判断是否对OPGW检修，若否，则跳转至步骤6)；5.6) For the new maintenance task, determine whether to overhaul the OPGW. If not, jump to step 6);
5.7)判断新的OPGW检修任务所相应的物理线路是否正常运行，若是，则相应物理需要配合停运检修；若否，则跳转至步骤6)。5.7) Determine whether the physical line corresponding to the new OPGW maintenance task is operating normally. If so, the corresponding physical line needs to be shut down for maintenance; if not, jump to step 6).
进一步，在步骤7)中，蒙特卡洛仿真是对由l个物理单元和l个信息单元共同组成的信息物理融合输电网进行抽样仿真，输电网状态Ω用l个物理单元和l个信息单元状态的组合表示：Further, in step 7), the Monte Carlo simulation is a sampling simulation of the cyber-physical fusion transmission network composed of l physical units and l information units, and the transmission network state Ω is represented by a combination of l physical unit and l information unit states:
Ω＝(X1,X2,...,Xl,Xl+1,Xl+2,...,X2l)Ω＝(X1 ,X2 ,...,Xl ,Xl+1 ,Xl+2 ,...,X2l )
式中，X1,X2,...,Xl为第1,2,...,l个物理单元的状态，Xl+1,Xl+2,...,X2l为第1,2,...,l个信息单元的状态；Wherein, X1 ,X2 ,...,Xl are the states of the 1st, 2nd,...,lth physical units, Xl+1 ,Xl+2 ,...,X2l are the states of the 1st, 2nd,...,lth information units;
计算每个状态的出现频次，输电网状态Ω的采样频率作为其状态概率的无偏估计：The frequency of occurrence of each state is calculated, and the sampling frequency of the transmission network state Ω is used as an unbiased estimate of its state probability:
式中，P(Ω)为输电网处于状态Ω的概率，n(Ω)表示输电网处于Ω的样本数，N表示预设总抽样次数；Where P(Ω) is the probability that the transmission network is in state Ω, n(Ω) represents the number of samples of the transmission network in Ω, and N represents the preset total number of samplings;
判断蒙特卡洛总仿真次数n是否大于预设值N，若不大于，则跳转至步骤2)；Determine whether the total number of Monte Carlo simulations n is greater than a preset value N. If not, jump to step 2);
根据所得的采样频率和各状态下输电网的负荷削减量，绘制信息物理融合输电网弹性曲线，并基于所得曲线计算弹性指标，评估输电网弹性。According to the obtained sampling frequency and the load reduction of the transmission network under various states, the cyber-physical fusion transmission network elasticity curve is drawn, and the elasticity index is calculated based on the obtained curve to evaluate the transmission network elasticity.
本发明与现有技术相比，具有如下优点与有益效果：Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:
1、本发明方法考虑了OPGW作为输电网的通信介质的情况，从信息物理融合的角度分析，与传统输电网弹性评估的输电网模型相比，本发明方法更符合实际情况。1. The method of the present invention takes into account the situation where OPGW is used as the communication medium of the transmission network. From the perspective of information-physical fusion, compared with the transmission network model of traditional transmission network elasticity assessment, the method of the present invention is more in line with the actual situation.
2、本发明方法根据输电网各处各时刻下的覆冰量，建立了信息物理融合输电网的元件时空故障策略，同时考虑了冰灾下绝缘子闪络、断线、倒塔三类故障及其耦合关系，使输电网的故障更接近真实情况；2. The method of the present invention establishes a spatiotemporal fault strategy for components of a cyber-physical fusion transmission network based on the amount of ice coverage at each location and time in the transmission network. At the same time, the three types of faults under ice disasters, namely, insulator flashover, line breakage, and tower collapse, and their coupling relationships are considered, making the faults of the transmission network closer to the actual situation.
3、本发明方法针对OPGW断线导致输电网通信故障的问题，建立了信息物理融合输电网的响应策略，分析了输电网存在不可观测、不可控制节点下的响应情况，能够更准确模拟输电网信息故障对物理故障的“扩大”影响作用；3. Aiming at the problem of OPGW disconnection leading to power transmission network communication failure, the method of the present invention establishes a response strategy for the information-physical fusion power transmission network, analyzes the response of the power transmission network under the condition of unobservable and uncontrollable nodes, and can more accurately simulate the "expansion" effect of power transmission network information failure on physical failure;
4、本发明方法针对OPGW断线和输电线路断线的检修，建立了信息物理融合输电网的检修策略，分析了检修队的调度情况和不同类型故障检修的前提条件，能够更准确模拟输电网对物理网络故障和信息网络故障的检修和恢复情况；4. The method of the present invention aims at the maintenance of OPGW disconnection and transmission line disconnection, establishes a maintenance strategy for the cyber-physical integrated transmission network, analyzes the scheduling of the maintenance team and the prerequisites for maintenance of different types of faults, and can more accurately simulate the maintenance and recovery of the transmission network for physical network faults and information network faults;
5、本发明方法在信息物理融合输电网弹性评估中具有使用简单、适应性强、可拓展性强等特点，为冰灾下输电网的抵御与恢复研究提供理论支撑，拥有广阔的应用前景。5. The method of the present invention has the characteristics of simple use, strong adaptability and strong scalability in the resilience assessment of information-physical fusion transmission network. It provides theoretical support for the research on the resistance and recovery of transmission networks under ice disasters and has broad application prospects.
附图说明BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
图1为本发明方法的逻辑流程示意图。FIG1 is a schematic diagram of a logic flow of the method of the present invention.
图2为本发明信息物理融合支路的监视与控制示意图。FIG2 is a schematic diagram of monitoring and control of the cyber-physical fusion branch of the present invention.
图3为本发明考虑监控失效和控制失效后的输电网响应模拟流程图。FIG3 is a flow chart of the simulation of the power transmission network response after considering monitoring failure and control failure according to the present invention.
图4为本发明考虑信息网络和物理网故障检修的模拟流程图。FIG. 4 is a simulation flow chart of the present invention considering information network and physical network fault troubleshooting.
图5为本发明极端气象灾害下的弹性曲线示意图。FIG5 is a schematic diagram of the elasticity curve under extreme meteorological disasters of the present invention.
图6为本发明IEEE RTS-79测试输电网栅格化结果图。FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the gridding results of the IEEE RTS-79 test transmission network of the present invention.
图7为本发明冰灾离境前部分母线节点的覆冰量结果图。FIG. 7 is a graph showing the ice coverage of some bus nodes before the ice disaster leaves the area according to the present invention.
图8为本发明冰灾下的信息物理融合输电网弹性曲线结果图。FIG8 is a diagram showing elasticity curve results of the information-physical fusion transmission network under ice disasters according to the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面结合实施例及附图对本发明作进一步详细的描述，但本发明的实施方式不限于此。The present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with embodiments and drawings, but the embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto.
参见图1所示，本实施例提供了一种冰灾下信息物理融合输电网的弹性评估方法，针对OPGW作为唯一通信介质的输电网，首先建立其信息物理融合模型，随后基于覆冰厚度建立时空故障策略，基于最小负荷削减建立响应策略，基于故障单元建立检修策略，最后通过蒙特卡洛法评估冰灾下信息物理融合输电网弹性能力。本发明在输电网受影响的“灾时响应”和“灾后恢复”阶段考虑了信息与物理的耦合特征，模拟了信息网络故障导致物理网络故障的进一步加剧过程以及信息网络检修对物理网络的影响。相较于传统物理故障弹性评估方法，本发明克服了单一维度的不足，能够更准确地反映冰灾下输电网的故障与恢复特性，为电力工程人员在“灾前抵御”、“灾时响应”和“灾后恢复”三个阶段增强电网弹性能力提供有效的弹性评估方法。本发明方法具体步骤如下：As shown in FIG1 , this embodiment provides a method for evaluating the resilience of an information-physical fusion transmission network under ice disasters. For a transmission network with OPGW as the only communication medium, first, its information-physical fusion model is established, then a spatiotemporal fault strategy is established based on ice thickness, a response strategy is established based on minimum load reduction, and a maintenance strategy is established based on faulty units. Finally, the Monte Carlo method is used to evaluate the resilience of the information-physical fusion transmission network under ice disasters. The present invention considers the coupling characteristics of information and physics in the "disaster response" and "post-disaster recovery" stages of the affected transmission network, simulates the further aggravation process of physical network failures caused by information network failures, and the impact of information network maintenance on the physical network. Compared with traditional physical fault resilience evaluation methods, the present invention overcomes the shortcomings of a single dimension, can more accurately reflect the fault and recovery characteristics of the transmission network under ice disasters, and provides an effective resilience evaluation method for power engineering personnel to enhance the resilience of the power grid in the three stages of "pre-disaster resistance", "disaster response" and "post-disaster recovery". The specific steps of the method of the present invention are as follows:
1)建立OPGW作为通信介质的信息物理融合输电网模型：针对以OPGW电缆作为唯一通信介质的输电网，基于信息网络与电力物理网络具有同塔建设的特征，映射建立信息物理融合输电网模型，该模型包括以下部分：1) Establishing a cyber-physical fusion transmission network model with OPGW as the communication medium: For the transmission network with OPGW cable as the only communication medium, based on the characteristics that the information network and the power physical network are built on the same tower, a cyber-physical fusion transmission network model is established by mapping. The model includes the following parts:
构建物理网络：由多个母线节点与多条物理支路构成，每个母线节点代表一个变电站，每条物理支路代表连接母线的架空输电线路；Build a physical network: It consists of multiple bus nodes and multiple physical branches. Each bus node represents a substation, and each physical branch represents an overhead transmission line connecting the bus.
构建信息网络：由多个信息节点与多条信息支路构成，每个信息节点代表一个变电站，每条信息支路代表连接变电站的OPGW，由变压器相连接的母线节点视为同一个信息节点，信息网络的架构与物理网络的架构存在映射关系；Build an information network: It consists of multiple information nodes and multiple information branches. Each information node represents a substation, and each information branch represents the OPGW connected to the substation. The busbar nodes connected by the transformers are regarded as the same information node. There is a mapping relationship between the architecture of the information network and the architecture of the physical network.
对物理网络和信息网络进行栅格化，栅格化后输电网的每个栅格单元由一个物理单元与一个信息单元组成。The physical network and the information network are gridded. After gridding, each grid unit of the transmission network consists of a physical unit and an information unit.
2)冰灾仿真初始化：根据气象预测信息，获取冰灾数据，设置仿真时间t的初始值为0，单位：h。2) Initialization of ice disaster simulation: According to the meteorological forecast information, ice disaster data is obtained and the initial value of the simulation time t is set to 0, unit: h.
3)建立信息物理融合输电网时空故障策略，判断冰灾是否已过境，若是，则跳转至步骤5)；若否，则以冰灾覆冰厚度为致灾因子，模拟输电网支路的故障情况，包括以下步骤：3) Establish a spatiotemporal fault strategy for the cyber-physical fusion transmission network to determine whether the ice disaster has passed. If so, jump to step 5); if not, use the ice thickness of the ice disaster as the disaster factor to simulate the fault situation of the transmission network branch, including the following steps:
3.1)判断冰灾是否过境，若过境则跳转至步骤5)；若未过境，则仿真时间推进一个仿真时刻更新冰灾位置；3.1) Determine whether the ice disaster has passed through. If so, jump to step 5); if not, advance the simulation time by one simulation time to update the ice disaster location;
3.2)计算各物理单元和信息单元时刻t下的覆冰厚度R(t)，可根据包括但不限于下式进行计算：3.2) Calculate the ice thickness R(t) of each physical unit and information unit at time t, which can be calculated according to the following formula including but not limited to:
式中，R(t)代表覆冰厚度；P(t)为该位置的降雨量，单位为mm/h；冰和水的密度分别设为ρice＝0.9g/cm3和ρ0＝1g/cm3；v(t)为风速，单位为m/s；W(t)为大气中的含水量，W(t)＝0.72P(t)0.88；Where R(t) represents the thickness of ice cover; P(t) is the rainfall at that location, in mm/h; the density of ice and water is set to ρice = 0.9 g/cm3 and ρ0 = 1 g/cm3 respectively; v(t) is the wind speed, in m/s; W(t) is the water content in the atmosphere, W(t) = 0.72P(t)0.88 ;
在最大风速圈内外的风速v(t)可用包括但不限于下式进行计算：The wind speed v(t) inside and outside the maximum wind speed circle can be calculated using the following formula, including but not limited to:
其中，某点与冰灾中心的距离d(t)可由包括但不限于下式获得：The distance d(t) between a certain point and the center of the ice disaster can be obtained by the following formula, including but not limited to:
式中，(x,y)代表该点位置，(x0(t),y0(t))代表台风中心的位置；In the formula, (x, y) represents the position of the point, (x0 (t), y0 (t)) represents the position of the typhoon center;
对于冰灾中的降雨问题，至今仍未有一个统一的模型。本发明假设降雨具有由内向外衰减的特征，可用包括但不限于下式表示：There is still no unified model for the rainfall problem in ice disasters. The present invention assumes that rainfall has the characteristic of decaying from the inside to the outside, which can be expressed by the following formula including but not limited to:
P(t)＝Pmax(t)[rmax(t)-d(t)]/rmax(t),d(t)≤rmax(t)P(t)＝Pmax (t)[rmax (t)-d(t)]/rmax (t),d(t)≤rmax (t)
其它参数例如最大风速、冰灾移动轨迹、最大降雨量都可以从气象部门的预测数据中获得；Other parameters such as maximum wind speed, ice disaster movement trajectory, and maximum rainfall can be obtained from the forecast data of the meteorological department;
根据覆冰厚度R(t)计算各物理单元和信息单元的各类故障概率，架空输电线路的故障可分为三类：绝缘子闪络、输电线路或OPGW断线和输电杆塔倒塔，具体而言：The fault probabilities of various physical units and information units are calculated based on the ice thickness R(t). The faults of overhead transmission lines can be divided into three categories: insulator flashover, transmission line or OPGW disconnection, and transmission tower collapse. Specifically:
绝缘子闪络：随着绝缘子片上的覆冰变厚，其绝缘性能也随之下降，导致闪络的发生进而引发物理传输线路跳闸。单元格中的元件发生闪络的故障概率可用包括但不限于下式描述为：Insulator flashover: As the ice on the insulator becomes thicker, its insulation performance also decreases, resulting in flashover and thus causing the physical transmission line to trip. The failure probability of flashover of the components in the unit cell can be described by, including but not limited to, the following formula:
式中，U＝220kV是输电网的运行电压。是闪络电压，可用包括但不限于下式计算：In the formula, U=220kV is the operating voltage of the transmission network. is the flashover voltage, which can be calculated using the following formula including but not limited to:
式中，A是与绝缘子的污染程度，材料和外形相关的系数；c是一个表征覆冰厚度对闪络电压影响的系数；h是干弧距离，单位为米；Where A is a coefficient related to the pollution degree, material and shape of the insulator; c is a coefficient that characterizes the effect of ice thickness on the flashover voltage; h is the dry arc distance in meters;
线路断裂：过重的覆冰，不仅会导致物理输电线路开断，同样也会导致信息线路OPGW开断。断线的概率和覆冰厚度的关系可用包括但不限于下式描述：Line breakage: Heavy ice coverage will not only cause the physical transmission line to be disconnected, but also cause the information line OPGW to be disconnected. The relationship between the probability of line breakage and ice thickness can be described by the following formula, including but not limited to:
式中，是线路最大覆冰厚度。值得注意的是，OPGW的悬挂点相对于物理输电线路而言，大约高7m。因此，OPGW在冰灾期间首先覆冰。此外，不同于物理输电线路，OPGW在运行过程中自身并不发热，其温度直接取决于灾害环境。为此，OPGW上的覆冰厚度往往比物理输电线路更严重；In the formula, is the maximum ice thickness of the line. It is worth noting that the suspension point of OPGW is about 7m higher than the physical transmission line. Therefore, OPGW is the first to be covered with ice during an ice disaster. In addition, unlike physical transmission lines, OPGW does not generate heat during operation, and its temperature directly depends on the disaster environment. For this reason, the ice thickness on OPGW is often more serious than that on physical transmission lines;
倒塔：过重的覆冰量会使输电杆塔倒塌，从而导致相应的物理和信息走廊的中断故障。倒塔概率和覆冰厚度的关系可用包括但不限于下式描述：Tower collapse: Excessive ice coverage can cause the transmission tower to collapse, resulting in the interruption of the corresponding physical and information corridors. The relationship between the probability of tower collapse and ice thickness can be described by, but not limited to, the following formula:
式中，为杆塔最大覆冰厚度；In the formula, is the maximum ice thickness of the tower;
根据计算所得的故障概率，采用蒙特卡洛法，抽样模拟各类故障是否发生，故障的模拟过程如下：According to the calculated failure probability, the Monte Carlo method is used to sample and simulate whether various types of failures occur. The failure simulation process is as follows:
设X为某一类故障的运行状态变量，X＝1表示工作态，X＝0表示故障态，p为该类故障发生的概率，由计算机产生一个[0,1]的随机数r，根据r与p的大小关系，模拟该类故障是否发生：Let X be the operating state variable of a certain type of fault, X=1 represents the working state, X=0 represents the fault state, p is the probability of occurrence of this type of fault, and a random number r [0,1] is generated by the computer. According to the relationship between r and p, simulate whether this type of fault occurs:
3.3)对于某个物理单元e，绝缘子闪络、输电线路断线、输电杆塔倒塔中任意一类故障发生，该物理单元运行状态为故障状态：3.3) For a physical unit e, if any of the following faults occurs: insulator flashover, transmission line disconnection, or transmission tower collapse, the operation state of the physical unit is a fault state:
式中，表示物理单元e处于故障状态，表示物理单元e处于工作状态；分别表示物理单元e的绝缘子、输电线路、输电杆塔的运行状态，为0表示故障状态，为1表示工作状态；In the formula, Indicates that physical unit e is in a faulty state. Indicates that the physical unit e is in working state; Respectively represent the operating status of the insulator, transmission line, and transmission tower of the physical unit e, 0 represents a fault state, and 1 represents a working state;
对于某个信息单元a，OPGW断线、输电杆塔倒塔中任意一类故障发生，该信息单元运行状态为故障状态：For a certain information unit a, if any of the following faults occurs, such as OPGW disconnection or transmission tower collapse, the operation status of the information unit is a fault status:
式中，表示信息单元a处于故障状态，表示信息单元a处于工作状态；分别表示信息单元a的OPGW、输电杆塔的运行状态，为0表示故障状态，为1表示工作状态，因为输电网信息网络与输电网物理网络具有同塔建设的特征，因此对于对应的物理单元和信息单元，有In the formula, Indicates that information unit a is in a faulty state. Indicates that information unit a is in working state; They represent the operating status of the OPGW and transmission tower of information unit a respectively. 0 represents the fault status and 1 represents the working status. Because the information network of the transmission network and the physical network of the transmission network have the characteristics of being built on the same tower, for the corresponding physical unit and information unit,
3.4)一条物理支路由多个物理单元组成，对于某条物理支路k，该支路上任意物理单元发生故障，该支路运行状态为故障状态：3.4) A physical branch consists of multiple physical units. For a physical branch k, if any physical unit on the branch fails, the operation state of the branch is a failure state:
式中，为物理支路k栅格化后的单元数；表示物理支路k处于故障状态，表示物理支路k处于工作状态；In the formula, is the number of cells after gridding of physical branch k; Indicates that physical branch k is in a faulty state. Indicates that physical branch k is in working state;
一条信息支路由多个信息单元组成，对于某条信息支路q，该支路上任意信息单元发生故障，该支路运行状态为故障状态：An information branch consists of multiple information units. For an information branch q, if any information unit on the branch fails, the operation state of the branch is a failure state:
式中，为信息支路q栅格化后的单元数；表示信息支路q处于故障状态，表示信息支路q处于工作状态；In the formula, is the number of cells after gridding of information branch q; Indicates that the information branch q is in a fault state. Indicates that the information branch q is in working state;
基于输电网信息网络与输电网物理网络具有同塔建设的特征，物理支路与信息支路的栅格化单元一致，因此对于对应的物理支路和信息支路，有：Based on the fact that the information network and the physical network of the transmission network are built on the same tower, the grid units of the physical branch and the information branch are consistent. Therefore, for the corresponding physical branch and information branch, there are:
4)建立信息物理融合输电网的响应策略，仿真输电网故障后的响应调整情况，调整后跳转至步骤3)；上述信息物理融合输电网的响应策略为：在信息网络故障与物理网络故障的双重影响下，模拟输电网控制中心主动响应与保护装置被动响应的过程。4) Establish a response strategy for the cyber-physical converged transmission network, simulate the response adjustment after the transmission network failure, and jump to step 3) after adjustment; the response strategy of the above-mentioned cyber-physical converged transmission network is: under the dual influence of information network failure and physical network failure, simulate the process of active response of the transmission network control center and passive response of the protection device.
有别于传统的物理网络故障响应策略，信息物理融合输电网的响应策略需考虑信息网络故障对物理网络故障的扩大作用；本发明假设输电网中不存在其它通信方式如4G/5G等，且OPGW是输电网的唯一通信信道，其信息物理耦合支路的详细结构如图2所示；对于物理层，母线1和母线2之间的输电走廊两端，有合并单元(白色)和控制单元(灰色)。对于信息层，由于通信网络建立在同一走廊上，使用相同的物理杆塔，因此也具有相同的拓扑结构。测量电气参数后，合并单元中的传感器将数据发送至控制中心。如果物理线路出现故障，如短路故障、潮流越限、频率过低过高等，保护装置则会自动切除故障。随后，立即将保护动作信息发送至控制中心，控制中心经计算后下发相应的控制命令，调整输电网状态；Different from the traditional physical network fault response strategy, the response strategy of the information-physical integrated transmission network needs to consider the amplification effect of information network faults on physical network faults; the present invention assumes that there are no other communication methods such as 4G/5G in the transmission network, and OPGW is the only communication channel of the transmission network. The detailed structure of its information-physical coupling branch is shown in Figure 2; for the physical layer, there are merging units (white) and control units (gray) at both ends of the transmission corridor between bus 1 and bus 2. For the information layer, since the communication network is built on the same corridor and uses the same physical towers, it also has the same topology. After measuring the electrical parameters, the sensors in the merging unit send the data to the control center. If a physical line fails, such as a short circuit, a current exceeding the limit, a frequency that is too low or too high, the protection device will automatically cut off the fault. Subsequently, the protection action information is immediately sent to the control center, and the control center issues corresponding control commands after calculation to adjust the state of the transmission network;
信息故障不会直接导致物理故障，但当部分输电支路受到冰灾影响时，信息故障可能会扩大其故障范围，并导致更严重的负荷削减。为了评估信息物理耦合输电网在极端灾害的弹性，下面对监视功能、控制功能的失效进行讨论：Information failure will not directly lead to physical failure, but when part of the transmission branch is affected by ice disaster, information failure may expand its fault range and lead to more serious load reduction. In order to evaluate the resilience of the cyber-physical coupled transmission network to extreme disasters, the failure of monitoring and control functions is discussed below:
①监视失效：监视是控制中心了解系统运行状态，及时发现故障的重要手段。值得注意的是，在仿真过程中，需要进行如下等效处理：a)由于系统中缺少硬件在环，仿真过程中的每个支路实际功率，是通过潮流计算获得的。b)对于不可监控的支路，上限等效设置为无穷大，仅用于控制中心的致盲，不作响应。物理分支仍有原来的上限，监控失败并不意味着物理分支不会故障。c)等效无穷大仅用于控制中心的故障发现过程。一旦系统中出现另一个可监视分支发出过载报告，用于最优负荷削减策略计算的上限就是原始值。① Monitoring failure: Monitoring is an important means for the control center to understand the operating status of the system and detect faults in a timely manner. It is worth noting that during the simulation process, the following equivalent processing is required: a) Due to the lack of hardware in the loop in the system, the actual power of each branch in the simulation process is obtained through power flow calculation. b) For unmonitored branches, the upper limit is equivalently set to infinity, which is only used for blinding the control center and does not respond. The physical branch still has the original upper limit, and monitoring failure does not mean that the physical branch will not fail. c) The equivalent infinity is only used for the fault detection process of the control center. Once another monitorable branch in the system issues an overload report, the upper limit used to calculate the optimal load reduction strategy is the original value.
②控制失效：当控制中心发现系统需要调整时，会对断路器、发电机和负载等设备进行远程调控。在冰灾过程中，如果通信链路受损，则相关设备无法收到来自控制中心的调整指令，失效不可调整。然而，信息故障时，控制中心未能及时调整系统状态，物理故障会被本地保护自动切除，可能引发连锁故障，导致事故进一步扩大。参见图3所示，包括以下步骤：② Control failure: When the control center finds that the system needs to be adjusted, it will remotely control equipment such as circuit breakers, generators, and loads. During an ice disaster, if the communication link is damaged, the relevant equipment cannot receive adjustment instructions from the control center and fails to be adjusted. However, when an information failure occurs, the control center fails to adjust the system status in time, and the physical fault will be automatically removed by local protection, which may cause a chain failure and further expand the accident. As shown in Figure 3, the following steps are included:
4.1)持续判断输电网中是否存在潮流越限、电压跌落或频率过高过低故障，若存在，则本地保护自动切除故障，并上传故障信息，直到输电网中不存在新的故障；4.1) Continuously determine whether there is a power flow over-limit, voltage drop, or over- or under-frequency fault in the transmission network. If so, the local protection automatically removes the fault and uploads the fault information until there is no new fault in the transmission network;
4.2)控制中心根据是否收到故障报告或检修完成报告进行主动响应，若收不到故障报告，则无操作，若收到，则进行最小加权负荷削减计算，调整输电网可控母线节点上的发电机、负荷和开关状态，其数学优化模型如下：4.2) The control center actively responds based on whether it receives a fault report or a maintenance completion report. If no fault report is received, no operation is performed. If received, the minimum weighted load reduction calculation is performed to adjust the generator, load and switch status on the controllable bus node of the transmission network. The mathematical optimization model is as follows:
最小化minimize
约束条件Restrictions
式中，为负荷j负荷重要度，分别为时刻t下发电机i有功注入量，负荷j有功负荷量，负荷j有功负荷削减量，F(S(t))，Pg(t)，Pd(t)，ΔPd(t)分别为时刻t下的有功功率向量，发电机有功注入向量，有功负荷向量，负荷有功削减向量；A(S(t))为输电网的直流PTDF矩阵，表征故障状态S(t)下的有功潮流与节点注入有功功率之间的关系；和为发电机i的最小、最大有功功率；和τ分别为发电机和负荷功率辅助整数变量，和分别为上一个仿真时刻下发电机i有功注入量和负荷j有功负荷削减量，Fk和分别为物理支路k的实时和最大传输有功功率；上述与有功功率相关变量，单位：MW；分别为发电机母线、负荷母线、支路的集合；分别为可控发电机母线、不可控的发电机母线、可控负荷母线、不可控的负荷母线的集合，满足和In the formula, is the load importance of load j, are the active power injection amount of generator i, the active power load amount of load j, and the active power reduction amount of load j at time t, respectively; F(S(t)),Pg (t),Pd (t),ΔPd (t) are the active power vector, generator active power injection vector, active power load vector, and load active power reduction vector at time t, respectively; A(S(t)) is the DC PTDF matrix of the transmission network, which represents the relationship between the active power flow and the node injected active power under the fault state S(t); and is the minimum and maximum active power of generator i; and τ are auxiliary integer variables for generator and load power, respectively, andare the active power injection of generator i and the active power reduction of load j at the last simulation moment, respectively. are the real-time and maximum transmission active powers of physical branch k respectively; the above variables related to active power, unit: MW; They are respectively the collection of generator bus, load bus and branch; are respectively the set of controllable generator bus, uncontrollable generator bus, controllable load bus, and uncontrollable load bus, satisfying and
4.3)信息物理融合输电网响应调整结束后，跳转至步骤3)。4.3) After the cyber-physical fusion transmission network response adjustment is completed, jump to step 3).
5)建立信息物理融合输电网的检修策略，判断检修是否结束，若结束，跳转至步骤7)；若未结束，模拟冰灾过境后输电网检修恢复过程；参见图4所示，包括以下步骤：5) Establish a maintenance strategy for the cyber-physical fusion transmission network, determine whether the maintenance is completed, and if so, jump to step 7); if not, simulate the maintenance and recovery process of the transmission network after the ice disaster passes; as shown in Figure 4, the following steps are included:
5.1)判断输电网检修是否结束，若是，则跳转至步骤6)；若否，则仍有单元需要检修，仿真时间推进一个仿真时刻；5.1) Determine whether the transmission network maintenance is completed. If so, jump to step 6); if not, there are still units that need maintenance, and the simulation time advances one simulation time;
5.2)对所有正在检修的故障单元b，其检修总时间综合考虑气象条件、故障位置、检修中心位置、检修路程、检修队伍规模、故障类型和检修顺序的因素，表示为：5.2) For all faulty units b under repair, the total repair time is Taking into account the factors of meteorological conditions, fault location, maintenance center location, maintenance distance, maintenance team size, fault type and maintenance sequence, it can be expressed as:
式中，为检修总时间，为修复时间，为路程时间，单位：h；Db为故障位置与检修中心之间的直线距离，单位：km；vcar为检修队伍的平均车速，单位km/h，m为天气影响因子，无量纲；In the formula, is the total maintenance time, To repair time, is the travel time, unit: h; Db is the straight-line distance between the fault location and the maintenance center, unit: km; vcar is the average speed of the maintenance team, unit: km/h, m is the weather impact factor, dimensionless;
5.3)故障单元检修：对所有正在检修的故障单元b，检修总时间与累计检修时间比较，判断是否存在刚完成检修的检修队，若是则将其状态置为空闲；5.3) Faulty unit maintenance: For all faulty units b being repaired, the total maintenance time Compare with the accumulated maintenance time to determine whether there is a maintenance team that has just completed maintenance. If so, set its status to idle;
5.4)判断是否存在未派单的故障，若不存在，则跳转至步骤6)；5.4) Determine whether there is any unassigned fault. If not, jump to step 6);
5.5)判断是否存在空闲维修队，若不存在，则跳转至步骤6)；若存在，则对其派遣新的检修任务；5.5) Determine whether there is an idle maintenance team. If not, jump to step 6); if so, dispatch a new maintenance task to it;
5.6)对新的检修任务，判断是否对OPGW维修，若否，则跳转至步骤6)；5.6) For the new maintenance task, determine whether to repair the OPGW, if not, jump to step 6);
5.7)判断新的OPGW检修任务所相应的物理线路是否正常运行，若是，则相应物理需要配合停运检修；若否，则跳转至步骤6)。5.7) Determine whether the physical line corresponding to the new OPGW maintenance task is operating normally. If so, the corresponding physical line needs to be shut down for maintenance; if not, jump to step 6).
6)再次执行信息物理融合输电网的响应，仿真输电网故障修复后的响应调整情况，调整后跳转至步骤5)。6) Execute the response of the cyber-physical fusion transmission network again, simulate the response adjustment after the transmission network fault is repaired, and jump to step 5) after adjustment.
7)蒙特卡洛仿真是对由l个物理单元和l个信息单元共同组成的信息物理融合输电网进行抽样仿真，输电网状态Ω可用l个物理单元和l个信息单元状态的组合表示：7) Monte Carlo simulation is a sampling simulation of the cyber-physical fusion transmission network composed of l physical units and l information units. The state of the transmission network Ω can be represented by the combination of the states of l physical units and l information units:
Ω＝(X1,X2,...,Xl,Xl+1,Xl+2,...,X2l)Ω＝(X1 ,X2 ,...,Xl ,Xl+1 ,Xl+2 ,...,X2l )
式中，X1,X2,...,Xl为第1,2,...,l个物理单元的状态，Xl+1,Xl+2,...,X2l为第1,2,...,l个信息单元的状态；Wherein, X1 ,X2 ,...,Xl are the states of the 1st, 2nd,...,lth physical units, Xl+1 ,Xl+2 ,...,X2l are the states of the 1st, 2nd,...,lth information units;
计算每个状态的出现频次，输电网状态Ω的采样频率作为其状态概率的无偏估计：The frequency of occurrence of each state is calculated, and the sampling frequency of the transmission network state Ω is used as an unbiased estimate of its state probability:
式中，P(Ω)为输电网处于状态Ω的概率，n(Ω)表示输电网处于Ω的样本数，N表示预设总抽样次数；Where P(Ω) is the probability that the transmission network is in state Ω, n(Ω) represents the number of samples of the transmission network in Ω, and N represents the preset total number of samplings;
具体包括以下步骤：The specific steps include:
7.1)判断蒙特卡洛总仿真次数n是否大于预设值N，若不大于，则跳转至步骤2)；7.1) Determine whether the total number of Monte Carlo simulations n is greater than the preset value N. If not, jump to step 2);
7.2)根据所得的采样频率和各状态下输电网的负荷削减量，绘制信息物理融合输电网蒙特卡洛弹性曲线，并基于所得曲线计算弹性指标，评估输电网弹性。7.2) Based on the obtained sampling frequency and the load reduction of the transmission network under each state, the Monte Carlo elasticity curve of the cyber-physical fusion transmission network is drawn, and the elasticity index is calculated based on the obtained curve to evaluate the elasticity of the transmission network.
为评估电力输电网抵御极端气象灾害的应急能力，对灾害过程造成的影响进行量化分析，需建立相应的弹性指标。图5为灾害全过程的电力输电网状态与时间关系图，其中Ω1为输电网正常运行状态，Ω2为输电网降额最严重的运行状态；T0为气象灾害开始影响输电网的时刻，T1为输电网开始削减负荷降额运行时刻，T2为输电网降额运行达到最严重的时刻，T3为输电网开始恢复的时刻，T4为气象灾害过境时刻，T5为输电网恢复至正常运行状态的时刻，T6为输电网所有元件修复完毕的时刻。从时间上分，可将灾害分为灾前、灾时、灾后三个阶段。基于上述弹性曲线，可运用包括但不限于下列三种典型弹性指标对输电网进行评估；In order to evaluate the emergency response capability of the power transmission network to resist extreme meteorological disasters and to quantitatively analyze the impact of the disaster process, it is necessary to establish corresponding elasticity indicators. Figure 5 is a diagram showing the relationship between the state and time of the power transmission network during the entire disaster process, where Ω1 is the normal operating state of the transmission network, and Ω2 is the most severe operating state of the transmission network; T0 is the moment when the meteorological disaster begins to affect the transmission network, T1 is the moment when the transmission network begins to reduce load and reduce operating capacity, T2 is the moment when the transmission network reduction reaches the most serious, T3 is the moment when the transmission network begins to recover, T4 is the moment when the meteorological disaster passes, T5 is the moment when the transmission network returns to normal operating conditions, and T6 is the moment when all components of the transmission network are repaired. In terms of time, the disaster can be divided into three stages: before the disaster, during the disaster, and after the disaster. Based on the above elasticity curve, the transmission network can be evaluated using the following three typical elasticity indicators, including but not limited to;
a)在区间[T1,T5]中，通过理想曲线h(t)与实际弹性曲线o(t)之间的面积大小来量化：a) In the interval [T1 ,T5 ], it is quantified by the area between the ideal curve h(t) and the actual elastic curve o(t):
b)在区间[T1,T5]中，通过实际弹性曲线o(t)与横轴的面积，理想曲线h(t)与横轴的面积之比来量化：b) In the interval [T1 ,T5 ], it is quantified by the ratio of the area between the actual elastic curve o(t) and the horizontal axis, and the area between the ideal curve h(t) and the horizontal axis:
c)在区间[T1,T5]中，从分考虑输电网前期抵御能力即A1面积，并考虑灾害持续时间占比即T4-T0与T5-T0，该量化指标称为RICD指标：c) In the interval [T1 ,T5 ], the initial resistance capacity of the transmission network, i.e., area A1 , is considered separately, and the proportion of the duration of the disaster, i.e., T4 -T0 and T5 -T0 , is considered. This quantitative index is called the RICD index:
下面以IEEE RTS-79测试输电网为例，对其冰灾下信息物理融合输电网进行弹性评估。Taking the IEEE RTS-79 test transmission network as an example, the resilience of its cyber-physical fusion transmission network under ice disasters is evaluated.
为提高计算速度，对IEEE RTS-79测试输电网进行栅格化处理。输电网被分割为1500×1700＝2550000个单元，每个单元占地500m×500m；栅格化后的测试输电网如图6所示。输电线路所在的每个物理单元与信息单元都包含一个输电杆塔，近似相当于每500m档距建设一个输电杆塔。此时，每个物理单元可能会发生绝缘子闪络故障、输电线路断线故障、倒塔故障；每个信息单元可能会发生OPGW断线故障、输电杆塔倒塔故障。In order to improve the calculation speed, the IEEE RTS-79 test transmission network is gridded. The transmission network is divided into 1500×1700=2550000 units, each unit occupies 500m×500m; the gridded test transmission network is shown in Figure 6. Each physical unit and information unit where the transmission line is located contains a transmission tower, which is approximately equivalent to building a transmission tower every 500m span. At this time, each physical unit may have an insulator flashover fault, a transmission line disconnection fault, or a tower collapse fault; each information unit may have an OPGW disconnection fault or a transmission tower collapse fault.
IEEE RTS-79测试输电网中有24个母线节点，38条输电走廊。其中，输电网中有32台发电机，其出力范围为12-400MW，输电网初始负荷为2850MW；冰灾最大最小风速半径均为rmax＝200km，最大风速v＝12m/s，最大降雨量Pmax＝35mm/h，冰灾的移动速度冰灾中心的移动坐标从(230,440)到(1360,1570)，如图6所示；控制中心部署在母线9，检修中心部署在母线3；维修队共40支，检修时间与天气相关，检修队伍车速60km/h；对于信息物理融合IEEE RTS-79测试输电网，蒙特卡洛总仿真次数N设置为2000次，输电网基本收敛；The IEEE RTS-79 test transmission network has 24 busbar nodes and 38 transmission corridors. Among them, there are 32 generators in the transmission network, with an output range of 12-400MW, and the initial load of the transmission network is 2850MW; the maximum and minimum wind speed radius of the ice disaster are rmax = 200km, the maximum wind speed v = 12m/s, the maximum rainfall Pmax = 35mm/h, and the moving speed of the ice disaster The moving coordinates of the ice disaster center are from (230,440) to (1360,1570), as shown in Figure 6; the control center is deployed on bus 9, and the maintenance center is deployed on bus 3; there are 40 maintenance teams in total, and the maintenance time is related to the weather. The maintenance team speed is 60km/h; for the IEEE RTS-79 test transmission network of cyber-physical fusion, the total number of Monte Carlo simulations N is set to 2000 times, and the transmission network is basically converged;
图7给出了受灾影响最严重的部分母线节点的覆冰厚度随时间的变化，包括母线3、母线14、母线15、母线19、母线21；Figure 7 shows the time-varying ice thickness of some busbar nodes most seriously affected by the disaster, including busbar 3, busbar 14, busbar 15, busbar 19, and busbar 21;
图8给出了冰灾下的信息物理融合输电网弹性曲线结果。实线为本发明的仿真结果，即信息物理融合弹性；虚线为不考虑信息失效的传统仿真结果，即传统弹性；图中显示，对于信息物理融合弹性的仿真结果，冰灾发生点T0＝0.12h；由于输电网具有一定的抵御能力，直到T1＝4.85h输电网才开始发生负荷削减；T2＝8.02h为输电网负荷削减最严重的时刻；从T3＝12.23h开始，由于部分元件已经脱离冰灾的影响并完成了抢修，输电网开始恢复供电负荷；T4＝9.89h冰灾离境输电网中所有元件覆冰量不再增加；T5＝58.67h输电网大部分元件修复完成，恢复正常供电水平；T6＝103.23h输电网中所有元件检修完毕；Figure 8 shows the elasticity curve of the information-physical fusion transmission network under ice disasters. The solid line is the simulation result of the present invention, i.e., information-physical fusion elasticity; the dotted line is the traditional simulation result without considering information failure, i.e., traditional elasticity; the figure shows that for the simulation results of information-physical fusion elasticity, the ice disaster occurred at T0 = 0.12h; since the transmission network has a certain resistance, the transmission network did not begin to reduce load until T1 = 4.85h; T2 = 8.02h was the most serious moment of load reduction in the transmission network; from T3 = 12.23h, since some components had been freed from the influence of the ice disaster and repairs had been completed, the transmission network began to restore the power supply load; T4 = 9.89h, the ice coverage of all components in the transmission network no longer increased after the ice disaster left the area; T5 = 58.67h, most components of the transmission network were repaired and restored to normal power supply levels; T6 = 103.23h, all components in the transmission network were overhauled;
在灾害初期，受损线路数量不多时，信息物理融合弹性与传统弹性的荷削减速度相差不大；在T2后，信息物理融合弹性恢复速度明显较慢；一方面，由于通信线路失效，单元未能及时与控制中心通信，导致输电网恢复速度较慢；另一方面，由于抢修队伍有限，部分检修资源需要分配到OPGW上，导致检修队伍资源缺乏，检修进度不及传统弹性；In the early stage of the disaster, when the number of damaged lines was small, the load reduction speed of cyber-physical fusion resilience and traditional resilience was not much different; after T2 , the recovery speed of cyber-physical fusion resilience was significantly slower; on the one hand, due to the failure of the communication line, the unit failed to communicate with the control center in time, resulting in a slow recovery speed of the transmission network; on the other hand, due to the limited emergency repair team, some maintenance resources needed to be allocated to OPGW, resulting in a lack of maintenance team resources and a slower maintenance progress than traditional resilience;
根据图8计算输电网的弹性指标值，结果如表1所示：The elasticity index value of the transmission network is calculated according to Figure 8, and the results are shown in Table 1:
表1信息物理融合弹性与传统弹性下的弹性指标Table 1 Elasticity indicators under cyber-physical fusion elasticity and traditional elasticity
传统弹性由于不考虑信息故障的情况，其仿真结果明显要优于信息物理融合弹性的；从表1的各项指标来看，RIt用于表征输电网削减负荷部分面积，传统弹性明显面积较小；RIr用于表征输电网削减负荷部分面积与该时段负荷总面积的比值，其结果两者差别不大，这是由于传统弹性恢复速度也相对较快；RIRICD综合考虑输电网抵御能力、输电网负荷削减面积占比、输电网的抢修速度等因素，传统弹性在这个指标上较优；上述指标表明了传统弹性过于理想，与真实情况差距较大，因此对输电网的弹性评估，信息物理融合的输电网尤为重要。Since traditional resilience does not consider the situation of information failure, its simulation results are obviously better than those of cyber-physical fusion resilience. From the various indicators in Table 1, RIt is used to characterize the area of the transmission network where the load is reduced, and the traditional resilience has a smaller area. RIr is used to characterize the ratio of the area of the transmission network where the load is reduced to the total load area during the period, and the results are not much different. This is because the recovery speed of traditional resilience is also relatively fast. RIRICD comprehensively considers factors such as the transmission network's resistance capability, the proportion of the transmission network's load reduction area, and the repair speed of the transmission network. Traditional resilience is better in this indicator. The above indicators show that traditional resilience is too ideal and is far from the actual situation. Therefore, for the resilience evaluation of the transmission network, the cyber-physical fusion transmission network is particularly important.
上述实施例为本发明较佳的实施方式，但本发明的实施方式并不受上述实施例的限制，其他的任何未背离本发明的精神实质与原理下所作的改变、修饰、替代、组合、简化，均应为等效的置换方式，都包含在本发明的保护范围之内。The above embodiments are preferred implementation modes of the present invention, but the implementation modes of the present invention are not limited to the above embodiments. Any other changes, modifications, substitutions, combinations, and simplifications that do not deviate from the spirit and principles of the present invention should be equivalent replacement methods and are included in the protection scope of the present invention.
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