技术领域Technical Field
本发明涉及一种预警方法及其应用，尤其是涉及一种基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方法及其应用。The invention relates to an early warning method and application thereof, and in particular to an efficient flood early warning method and application thereof based on a hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model.
背景技术Background technique
洪水灾害对国家财产和人民生命安全造成了巨大的危害。在流域的洪水演进情景模拟中，分布式洪水水深和流速是两个至关重要的水力参数。目前分布式洪水水深和流速主要采用单纯的水动力模型或者水文-水动力耦合模型进行计算。然而，目前单纯的水动力模型尚不能完全满足流域洪水模拟与预报的需求(江春波,周琦,申言霞,柳高飞,张帝.山区流域洪涝预报水文与水动力耦合模型研究进展[J].水利学报,2021,52(10):1137-1150.)；另一方面，水文-水动力耦合模型虽然通过水文计算替代/简化了一部分水动力计算，一定程度上提升了计算效率，其中有代表性的为清华大学提出的Dynamic BilateralCoupling Model(DBCM)(Jiang,C.,Zhou,Q.,Yu,W.,Yang,C.,Lin,B.A dynamicbidirectional coupled surface flow model for flood inundation simulation[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2021,21:497-515.)，然而，DBCM提出的时间较短，尚处在研发阶段。水文模型与水动力模型间的复杂互馈机制，导致水文-水动力耦合模型复杂、计算参数众多，从而一直不能满足流域洪水预报的需求。Flood disasters have caused great harm to national property and people's lives. In the simulation of flood evolution scenarios in a river basin, distributed flood depth and flow rate are two crucial hydraulic parameters. At present, distributed flood depth and flow rate are mainly calculated using a simple hydrodynamic model or a hydrological-hydrodynamic coupling model. However, at present, the simple hydrodynamic model cannot fully meet the needs of basin flood simulation and forecasting (Jiang Chunbo, Zhou Qi, Shen Yanxia, Liu Gaofei, Zhang Di. Research progress of hydrological and hydrodynamic coupling model for flood forecasting in mountainous basins [J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2021, 52(10): 1137-1150.); on the other hand, although the hydrological-hydrodynamic coupling model replaces/simplifies part of the hydrodynamic calculation through hydrological calculation, it improves the calculation efficiency to a certain extent. Among them, the representative one is the Dynamic Bilateral Coupling Model (DBCM) proposed by Tsinghua University (Jiang, C., Zhou, Q., Yu, W., Yang, C., Lin, B. A dynamic bidirectional coupled surface flow model for flood inundation simulation [J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2021, 21: 497-515.), however, DBCM was proposed not long ago and is still in the research and development stage. The complex feedback mechanism between the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model leads to the complexity of the hydrological-hydrodynamic coupling model and the large number of calculation parameters, which has been unable to meet the needs of basin flood forecasting.
此外，现有技术，如中国专利申请，公开号：CN102289570A公开一种基于降雨-径流-洪水演进计算的洪水预报方法，包括数据集成、参数确定、模型计算(模型计算部分接收参数确定部分输出参数值后，首先使用分布式水文模型得到计算流域内各河流源头及交汇点的流量、水位数据；然后利用基于圣维南方程组的水动力模型计算河道内的洪水演进过程，输出计算流域的河道内各点的水位、流量随时间变化数据)、计算公布；公开号：CN109543275A公开一种城区地表径流二维数值模拟方法，获取城区地形、地貌数据后，采用三角形非结构网格离散城区计算区域，建筑物所在区域不参与剖分，其轮廓线作为网格剖分的控制线，每根建筑物雨水管通过汇流连接边与地面相连。先计算每根雨水管的汇流面积，再计算每根雨水管的出流过程。二维网格单元设置初始计算条件后启动二维Godunov模型进行模拟计算，雨水管出流过程作为与连接边对应单元的流量边界条件，地面网格单元内的降雨在模型中当作源项处理；公开号：CN109887241A公开一种山洪灾害气象预警计算方法及系统，属于山洪灾害研究技术领域，所述山洪气象预警计算方法包括步骤：步骤1，收集研究区域内雨量站点的前期降雨数据；步骤2，判断研究区域内的土壤含水量情况，将土层湿润程度分为干旱、一般、较湿，三个级别；步骤3，采用综合因子确定法计算研究区域内的降雨扣损值；步骤4，收集预报降雨数据；步骤5，根据降雨扣损值及预报降雨数据，计算研究区域内的净雨量值；步骤6，构建山洪灾害气象预警模型；步骤7，利用山洪灾害气象预警模型估算预警区域；公开号：CN111985082A公开一种高守恒性水文水动力耦合模拟方法，具体包括如下步骤：步骤1，收集研究区域的基础数据；步骤2，设置研究区域的基础参数，包括研究区域的四周边界条件、模拟时间步长及模拟总时长；步骤3，计算研究区域的地表子回水区域的径流量q'；步骤4，进行管网系统模拟计算，得当前时间步长的雨水井水深hn；步骤5，判断管网系统是否超载，当管网系统超载时，启动地表二维水动力学模拟；公开号：CN109101706A公开一种集总式水文模型和二维水动力模型的耦合方法，包括：步骤1，数据处理：获取并处理集总式水文模型和二维水动力模型所需基础数据，其中水动力模型的计算网格、土地利用栅格数据均采用与高程数据DEM栅格数据相一致的网格；步骤2，构建水文模型及计算：基于基础数据构建集总式水文模型；步骤3，耦合方法：采用降尺度方法使所得的径流过程与水动力模型的时空尺度保持一致；步骤4，水动力模型构建及计算：将降尺度后的径流栅格数据读入水动力模型进行计算，可得到洪水特征值的空间分布；公开号：CN109190263A公开一种基于降雨径流及水动力模型预测全流域降水流量的方法，包括：读取全流域数据，通过分布式降雨径流模型计算各个子集水区的出流量，模拟降雨径流的空间分布；将各个子集水区的出流量收纳入河川水动力模型，通过计算河川水动力模型得到河川断面水位和流量；公开号：CN111369059A公开一种基于内涝快速模拟耦合模型的城市内涝预测方法及系统，包括：采集研究区域的管网数据和水文数据；构建二维地形模型，对二维地形模型分别进行建筑区域高程处理和道路分布区域高程处理；基于处理后的二维地形模型，搭建二维水动力模型；分别构建管网的水动力模型和管网的水文模型，连接上述两个模型得到排水管网模型；将二维水动力模型与排水管网模型进行耦合，得到城市内涝模拟耦合模型，通过城市内涝快速模拟耦合模型对城市内涝积水点分布及积水深度进行预测；公开号：CN111795681A公开一种山洪灾害预警方法、装置、服务器及存储介质。通过获取监测数据，根据监测数据中的标准水流量对初始水文预报模型进行率定，将率定后的模型作为目标水文预报模型，根据目标水文预报模型对监测数据进行洪水预报计算，以及根据演进漫溢模型对预报计算结果进行演进漫溢计算，得到当前监测区域的漫溢淹没分析结果，进一步根据漫溢淹没分析结果确定是否生成预警信息以用于对当前监测区域进行报警；公开号：CN112116229A公开一种流域水质调度管理方法、系统及平台，属于水环境监测及保护技术领域，其包括如下步骤：确定流域水系；建立数据库；模型建立；模型率定与完善；计算流域污染最大日负荷量及污染削减量；生成模拟调度方案；判断模拟调度方案是否满足负荷控制要求；若否，则重新分配缺口，获取设施建设完善建议，然后重新执行计算流域污染日负荷量及污染源分配最大日负荷量；若是，则继续执行以下步骤：生成调度实施方案；公开号：CN114117848A公开一种基于多模型耦合的流域水环境模拟预测的方法及装置，涉及环境水利与计算数学技术领域。包括：获取待预测流域的输入数据；将输入数据输入到水环境预测模型；基于输入数据以及水环境预测模型，得到待预测流域的水环境模拟预测结果，完成待预测流域的水环境从流域到水体到生态的动态模拟；此外，公开号：CN112528563A、CN112949167A、CN113723024A、CN113792437A、CN113902211A等现有技术虽然都通过收集信息、模型建立等步骤实现了洪水的预警，但是，上述现有技术都没有将水文物理模型与2D kinematic-wave水动力模型进行集成构建洪水预警方法的常微分形式方程，从而导致计算难度大，计算效率低的缺陷。In addition, the prior art, such as the Chinese patent application, publication number: CN102289570A discloses a flood forecasting method based on rainfall-runoff-flood evolution calculation, including data integration, parameter determination, model calculation (after the model calculation part receives the parameter value output by the parameter determination part, the distributed hydrological model is first used to obtain the flow and water level data of the source and intersection of each river in the calculation basin; then the hydrodynamic model based on the Saint-Venant equations is used to calculate the flood evolution process in the river channel, and the water level and flow change data of each point in the river channel of the calculation basin are output over time), calculation and publication; publication number: CN109543275A discloses a two-dimensional numerical simulation method for urban surface runoff, after obtaining the urban terrain and landform data, a triangular unstructured grid is used to discretize the urban calculation area, the area where the building is located does not participate in the division, and its contour line is used as the control line of the grid division, and each building rainwater pipe is connected to the ground through the confluence connection edge. First, the confluence area of each rainwater pipe is calculated, and then the outflow process of each rainwater pipe is calculated. After the initial calculation conditions are set for the two-dimensional grid unit, the two-dimensional Godunov model is started for simulation calculation. The outflow process of the rainwater pipe is used as the flow boundary condition of the unit corresponding to the connecting edge, and the rainfall in the ground grid unit is treated as a source item in the model; Publication No.: CN109887241A discloses a flash flood disaster meteorological warning calculation method and system, which belongs to the field of flash flood disaster research technology. The flash flood meteorological warning calculation method includes the following steps: Step 1, collecting the previous rainfall data of the rainfall station in the study area; Step 2, judging the soil moisture content in the study area, and dividing the soil layer moisture into three levels: drought, general, and relatively wet; Step 3, using the comprehensive factor determination method to calculate the rainfall loss value in the study area; Step Step 4, collect forecast rainfall data; Step 5, calculate the net rainfall value in the study area according to the rainfall loss value and the forecast rainfall data; Step 6, construct a meteorological warning model for flash flood disasters; Step 7, estimate the warning area using the meteorological warning model for flash flood disasters; Publication No.: CN111985082A discloses a highly conservative hydrological and hydrodynamic coupling simulation method, which specifically includes the following steps: Step 1, collect basic data of the study area; Step 2, set the basic parameters of the study area, including the boundary conditions around the study area, the simulation time step and the total simulation time; Step 3, calculate the runoff q' of the surface sub-backwater area of the study area; Step 4, perform a pipe network system simulation calculation to obtain the rainwater well water depth hn of the current time step ; Step 5, determine whether the pipe network system is overloaded. When the pipe network system is overloaded, start the surface two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation; Publication No.: CN109101706A discloses a coupling method of a lumped hydrological model and a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, including: Step 1, data processing: obtain and process the basic data required for the lumped hydrological model and the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, wherein the calculation grid and land use raster data of the hydrodynamic model both use grids consistent with the elevation data DEM raster data; Step 2, construct a hydrological model and calculate: construct a lumped hydrological model based on the basic data; Step 3, coupling method: use a downscaling method to make the resulting runoff process consistent with the spatiotemporal scale of the hydrodynamic model; Step 4, hydrodynamic model construction and calculation: read the downscaled runoff raster data into the hydrodynamic model for calculation, and the spatial distribution of the flood characteristic value can be obtained; Publication No.: CN109190263A discloses a method for predicting the precipitation flow of the entire basin based on rainfall runoff and hydrodynamic model, including: reading the data of the entire basin, through distributed rainfall The runoff model calculates the outflow of each sub-catchment area and simulates the spatial distribution of rainfall runoff; the outflow of each sub-catchment area is included in the river hydrodynamic model, and the water level and flow of the river section are obtained by calculating the river hydrodynamic model; Publication No.: CN111369059A discloses a method and system for predicting urban waterlogging based on a rapid simulation coupling model of waterlogging, including: collecting pipe network data and hydrological data of the study area; constructing a two-dimensional terrain model, and performing elevation processing of the building area and the road distribution area on the two-dimensional terrain model respectively; building a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model based on the processed two-dimensional terrain model; constructing a hydrodynamic model of the pipe network and a hydrological model of the pipe network respectively, and connecting the above two models to obtain a drainage pipe network model; coupling the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model with the drainage pipe network model to obtain an urban waterlogging simulation coupling model, and predicting the distribution of waterlogging points and waterlogging depth in urban waterlogging through the rapid simulation coupling model of urban waterlogging; Publication No.: CN111795681A discloses a flash flood disaster warning method, device, server and storage medium. By acquiring monitoring data, calibrating the initial hydrological forecast model according to the standard water flow in the monitoring data, taking the calibrated model as the target hydrological forecast model, performing flood forecast calculation on the monitoring data according to the target hydrological forecast model, and performing evolutionary overflow calculation on the forecast calculation results according to the evolutionary overflow model, the overflow and inundation analysis results of the current monitoring area are obtained, and further determining whether to generate early warning information for alarming the current monitoring area according to the overflow and inundation analysis results; Publication No.: CN112116229A discloses a basin water quality scheduling management method, system and platform, which belongs to the field of water environment monitoring and protection technology, and its The method comprises the following steps: determining the water system of the river basin; establishing a database; establishing a model; calibrating and improving the model; calculating the maximum daily pollution load and pollution reduction amount of the river basin; generating a simulation scheduling plan; judging whether the simulation scheduling plan meets the load control requirements; if not, reallocating the gap, obtaining suggestions for improving facility construction, and then recalculating the daily pollution load of the river basin and the maximum daily load of pollution source allocation; if so, continuing to perform the following steps: generating a scheduling implementation plan; Publication number: CN114117848A discloses a method and device for simulating and predicting a river basin water environment based on multi-model coupling, which relates to the fields of environmental water conservancy and computational mathematics technology. The method includes: obtaining input data of a watershed to be predicted; inputting the input data into a water environment prediction model; obtaining a water environment simulation prediction result of the watershed to be predicted based on the input data and the water environment prediction model, and completing a dynamic simulation of the water environment of the watershed to be predicted from the watershed to the water body to the ecology; in addition, although the prior arts such as publication numbers CN112528563A, CN112949167A, CN113723024A, CN113792437A, and CN113902211A all achieve flood warning through steps such as collecting information and establishing models, none of the prior arts integrates the hydrological physics model with the 2D kinematic-wave hydrodynamic model to construct an ordinary differential form equation of a flood warning method, resulting in the defects of great computational difficulty and low computational efficiency.
发明内容Summary of the invention
本发明所提出的基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方法，不同于以往水文-水动力耦合模型通过技术手段进行水文模型和水动力模型的数据传递，导致现有技术无法给出明确的数学表达式，其核心数学表达式仍然是广泛使用的水文模型的控制方程和水动力模型的控制方程，致使现有技术并未突破水动力模型偏微分方程求解困难的技术瓶颈。本发明所提出的基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方法具有清晰明确的数学表达式，其不再是广泛使用的水文模型的控制方程和水动力模型的控制方程，而是一种崭新的常微分形式方程，因此具有求解快速，方便应用的优点，其技术方案如下：The efficient flood warning method based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model proposed in the present invention is different from the previous hydrological-hydrodynamic coupling model that uses technical means to transfer data between the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model, resulting in the inability of the prior art to give a clear mathematical expression. Its core mathematical expression is still the widely used control equations of the hydrological model and the control equations of the hydrodynamic model, resulting in the prior art not breaking through the technical bottleneck of the difficulty in solving the partial differential equations of the hydrodynamic model. The efficient flood warning method based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model proposed in the present invention has a clear and definite mathematical expression. It is no longer the widely used control equations of the hydrological model and the control equations of the hydrodynamic model, but a brand-new ordinary differential form equation. Therefore, it has the advantages of fast solution and convenient application. Its technical solution is as follows:
一种基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方法，包括如下步骤：An efficient flood early warning method based on a hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model comprises the following steps:
步骤1：收集某区域地形数据和土地利用数据，包括数字高程信息(DEM)和下垫面糙率系数等；Step 1: Collect terrain data and land use data of a certain area, including digital elevation information (DEM) and underlying surface roughness coefficient;
步骤2：输入逐小时降雨强度R；Step 2: Input hourly rainfall intensity R;
步骤3：通过水文物理模型，利用质量守恒定律建立起集水区内总输入速率(降雨强度)、总贮水量增长速率和总输出速率(出流速率、入渗速率)之间的平衡关系(图2)；Step 3: Using the hydrological physics model and the law of conservation of mass, the equilibrium relationship between the total input rate (rainfall intensity), the total water storage growth rate, and the total output rate (outflow rate, infiltration rate) in the catchment area is established (Figure 2);
Q＝qx×A(x),W＝Hx×A(x) (2)Q＝qx ×A(x),W＝Hx ×A(x) (2)
式中,R为降雨强度(mm/h)；qx为集水区出流速率(m/s)；Hx为计算位置上游集水区平均水深(m)；I为集水区入渗速率(m/s)；t为时间(s)；Q为集水区出流速度(m3/s)；W为集水区总贮水量(m3)；A(x)为计算位置上游集水区面积(m2)。Where R is the rainfall intensity (mm/h); qx is the outflow rate of the catchment (m/s); Hx is the average water depth of the catchment upstream of the calculation location (m); I is the infiltration rate of the catchment (m/s); t is the time (s); Q is the outflow velocity of the catchment (m3 /s); W is the total water storage capacity of the catchment (m3 ); and A(x) is the area of the catchment upstream of the calculation location (m2 ).
步骤4：根据2D kinematic-wave水动力模型建立起断面出流速度和断面平均水深的水力联系；Step 4: Establish the hydraulic relationship between the cross-section outflow velocity and the cross-section average water depth based on the 2D kinematic-wave hydrodynamic model;
式中，h为断面处水深(m)；nm为曼宁系数(s/m1/3)；Qx为x方向线出流量(m2/s)；Qy为y方向线出流量(m2/s)；Sx为x方向地形梯度(1)；Sy为y方向地形梯度(1)。Where h is the water depth at the section (m);nm is the Manning coefficient (s/m1/3 ); Qx is the linear outflow in the x direction (m2 /s); Qy is the linear outflow in the y direction (m2/s); Sx is the terrain gradient in the x direction (1); Sy is the terrain gradient in the y direction (1).
步骤5：在步骤3和步骤4的基础上，根据水文物理模型(图2)与2D kinematic-wave水动力模型(图5)所求断面出流速度和集水区内的总贮水量应该时时相等，搭建起两个模型的两层联立关系(图3)：Step 5: Based on steps 3 and 4, the outflow velocity of the cross section and the total water storage in the catchment area should be equal at all times according to the hydrological physics model (Figure 2) and the 2D kinematic-wave hydrodynamic model (Figure 5), and a two-layer joint relationship between the two models is established (Figure 3):
和Q＝Q1 (6) and Q = Q1 (6)
步骤6：根据步骤5，构建基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警模型，Step 6: According to step 5, construct an efficient flood warning model based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model.
式中，qx为计算位置x-断面处出流速率(m/s)；为集水区平均曼宁系数(s/m1/3)；S为计算处置处地形梯度(1)；为集水区平均地形梯度(1)；Hx为计算位置处上游集水区平均水深(m)；h(x)为计算位置处的水深(m)；B(x)为计算位置处的断面宽度(m)；V(x)x为计算位置处x方向的流速(m/s)；V(x)y为计算位置处y方向的流速(m/s)；A(x)为计算位置处B(x)所对应的上游集水面积(m2)。Where qx is the outflow velocity at the x-section at the calculation position (m/s); is the average Manning coefficient of the catchment area (s/m1/3 ); S is the terrain gradient of the calculation location (1); is the average terrain gradient of the catchment area (1); Hx is the average water depth of the upstream catchment area at the calculation location (m); h(x) is the water depth at the calculation location (m); B(x) is the cross-sectional width at the calculation location (m); V(x)x is the flow velocity in the x direction at the calculation location (m/s); V(x)y is the flow velocity in the y direction at the calculation location (m/s); A(x) is the upstream catchment area corresponding to B(x) at the calculation location (m2).
步骤7：根据历史观测资料(逐小时降雨量R、洪水水深和流速)等，对基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方法中的计算参数继续率定；Step 7: Based on historical observation data (hourly rainfall R, flood depth and flow velocity), etc., continue to calibrate the calculation parameters of the flood efficient early warning method based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model;
步骤8：输出洪水水深、流速的计算结果。Step 8: Output the calculation results of flood depth and flow velocity.
本发明还公开一种将上述基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方法应用于洪水预警系统中。The invention also discloses a method for applying the high-efficiency flood warning method based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model to a flood warning system.
有益效果Beneficial Effects
由水文物理模型(步骤3)与2D kinematic-wave水动力模型(步骤4)进行集成(步骤5)，构建的基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方法(步骤6)为常微分形式方程，相较于传统的水动力偏微分方程，计算难度得到了大幅的降低，计算效率得到了大幅的提升。The hydrological physics model (step 3) and the 2D kinematic-wave hydrodynamic model (step 4) are integrated (step 5) to construct an efficient flood warning method based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model (step 6). The method is an ordinary differential form equation. Compared with the traditional hydrodynamic partial differential equation, the calculation difficulty has been greatly reduced and the calculation efficiency has been greatly improved.
附图说明BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
图1为本发明的流程图；Fig. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention;
图2为本发明水文物理模型图；FIG2 is a diagram of a hydrological physical model of the present invention;
图3为本发明水文-水动力集成模型结构图；FIG3 is a structural diagram of the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model of the present invention;
图4为本发明具体实施例图；Fig. 4 is a diagram of a specific embodiment of the present invention;
图5为分发明2D kinematic-wave水动力模型图。FIG. 5 is a diagram of the invented 2D kinematic-wave hydrodynamic model.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
本发明提供一种基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方法，其特征为：包括如下步骤：The present invention provides a high-efficiency flood early warning method based on a hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model, which is characterized by comprising the following steps:
步骤1：收集某区域地形数据和土地利用数据；Step 1: Collect terrain data and land use data of a certain area;
步骤2：输入逐小时降雨强度R；Step 2: Input hourly rainfall intensity R;
步骤3：通过水文物理模型，利用质量守恒定律建立起集水区内总输入速率、总贮水量增长速率和总输出速率之间的平衡关系；Step 3: Using the hydrological physics model and the law of conservation of mass, establish a balance between the total input rate, total water storage growth rate, and total output rate in the catchment area;
步骤4：根据2D kinematic-wave水动力模型建立起断面出流速度和断面平均水深的水力联系；Step 4: Establish the hydraulic relationship between the cross-section outflow velocity and the cross-section average water depth based on the 2D kinematic-wave hydrodynamic model;
步骤5：在步骤3和步骤4的基础上，根据水文物理模型与2D kinematic-wave水动力模型所求断面出流速度和集水区内的总贮水量应该时时相等，搭建起两个模型的两层联立关系；Step 5: Based on steps 3 and 4, the outflow velocity of the cross section and the total water storage in the catchment area should be equal at all times according to the hydrological physics model and the 2D kinematic-wave hydrodynamic model, and a two-layer joint relationship between the two models is established;
步骤6：根据步骤5，构建基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方程；Step 6: According to step 5, construct an efficient flood warning equation based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model;
步骤7：根据历史观测资料，对基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方法中的计算参数继续率定；Step 7: Based on historical observation data, continue to calibrate the calculation parameters of the flood high-efficiency early warning method based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model;
步骤8：输出洪水水深、流速的计算结果。Step 8: Output the calculation results of flood depth and flow velocity.
实施例Example
以一个概念性斜坡模型(图4)为例,包括长、宽、矮侧高、高侧高、坡面坡度S(如：长100m，宽10m，矮侧高20m,高侧高40m，坡面坡度S为0.1)的不透水斜坡上施加降雨R，降雨全部变成斜坡表面的径流，并全部在斜坡的矮侧流出：Take a conceptual slope model (Figure 4) as an example. When rainfall R is applied on an impermeable slope with length, width, short side height, high side height, and slope gradient S (e.g., length 100m, width 10m, short side height 20m, high side height 40m, slope gradient S is 0.1), all rainfall becomes runoff on the slope surface and flows out on the short side of the slope:
1)收集某区域地形数据和土地利用数据，包括数字高程信息(DEM)和下垫面糙率系数；1) Collect terrain data and land use data of a certain area, including digital elevation information (DEM) and underlying surface roughness coefficient;
参考图4，图4为本发明的具体实施例图。根据图4确定地形信息(坡度为0.1)和下垫面糙率系数(取0.3)Refer to Figure 4, which is a diagram of a specific embodiment of the present invention. According to Figure 4, determine the terrain information (slope is 0.1) and the underlying surface roughness coefficient (take 0.3)
2)进一步地，输入逐小时降雨强度R；2) Further, input the hourly rainfall intensity R;
降雨强度由气象观测站获取,降雨历时为4天。The rainfall intensity was obtained from the meteorological observation station, and the rainfall lasted for 4 days.
3)进一步地，通过水文物理模型(图2)，即假设某一集水区为一个概念性水箱，在概念性水箱中，水箱内的水高H乘以集水区面积A表征集水区内的总贮水量W，水箱侧边出口的出流速率q乘以集水区面积A表征集水区边界P点的出流速度Q，利用质量守恒定律建立起集水区内总输入速率(降雨强度)、总贮水量增长速率和总输出速率(出流速率、入渗速率)之间的平衡关系(图2)；3) Further, through the hydrological physical model (Figure 2), that is, assuming that a certain catchment area is a conceptual water tank, in which the water height H in the water tank multiplied by the catchment area A represents the total water storage W in the catchment area, and the outflow rate q at the side outlet of the water tank multiplied by the catchment area A represents the outflow rate Q at the catchment boundary point P, the law of conservation of mass is used to establish the balance relationship between the total input rate (rainfall intensity), the total water storage growth rate and the total output rate (outflow rate, infiltration rate) in the catchment area (Figure 2);
Q＝qx×A(x),W＝Hx×A(x) (2)Q＝qx ×A(x), W＝Hx ×A(x) (2)
4)同时地，根据2D kinematic-wave水动力模型(图5)，即在一个集水区的地表面，一部分降雨渗透进土壤中，剩余的降雨在地表面聚集形成径流，在地表面的径流只考虑径流沿x方向和y方向的平面流动，不考虑径流沿z方向的垂直流动，集水区内的径流最终全部经过x断面流出，根据质量守恒定律和动量守恒定律，构建径流的动力方程，建立起断面出流速度和断面平均水深的水力联系；4) At the same time, according to the 2D kinematic-wave hydrodynamic model (Figure 5), that is, on the surface of a catchment area, part of the rainfall infiltrates into the soil, and the remaining rainfall gathers on the surface to form runoff. The runoff on the surface only considers the plane flow of the runoff along the x and y directions, and does not consider the vertical flow of the runoff along the z direction. The runoff in the catchment area eventually flows out through the x section. According to the law of conservation of mass and momentum, the dynamic equation of runoff is constructed, and the hydraulic connection between the cross-section outflow velocity and the cross-section average water depth is established;
5)进一步地，在步骤3和步骤4的基础上，根据水文物理模型(图2)在集水区出口，即概念性水箱的侧壁出口，与2D kinematic-wave水动力模型(图5)在集水区出口，即x断面，二者所求断面出流速度和集水区内的总贮水量应该时时相等，搭建起两个模型的两层联立关系(图3)：5) Further, based on steps 3 and 4, according to the hydrological physics model (Figure 2) at the outlet of the catchment area, that is, the side wall outlet of the conceptual water tank, and the 2D kinematic-wave hydrodynamic model (Figure 5) at the outlet of the catchment area, that is, the x section, the cross-sectional outflow velocity and the total water storage in the catchment area should be equal at all times, and a two-layer joint relationship between the two models is established (Figure 3):
和Q＝Q1 (6) and Q = Q1 (6)
6)进一步地，根据步骤5，经过严格公式推导(公式(7)-公式(16))，构建基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方法，并将积分复杂项简化为幂函数形式，得到本发明所提出的洪水高效预警方法的幂函数简化形式。6) Further, according to step 5, after rigorous formula derivation (Formula (7)-Formula (16)), an efficient flood warning method based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model is constructed, and the complex integral terms are simplified into a power function form, thereby obtaining a simplified power function form of the efficient flood warning method proposed in the present invention.
从公式(2)，x断面(图5)的出流速度(Q)等于x断面(图5)对应的集水区出流速率(qx)乘以上游集水面积(A(x))：:From formula (2), the outflow velocity (Q) of section x (Figure 5) is equal to the outflow rate (qx ) of the catchment area corresponding to section x (Figure 5) multiplied by the upstream catchment area (A(x)):
Q＝qx×A(x) (7)Q＝qx ×A(x) (7)
根据第一层联立方程式(图3)，由水文物理模型(图2)在集水区出口，即概念性水箱的侧壁出口，求出的断面出流速度应与2Dkinematic-wave水动力模型(图5)在集水区出口，即x断面，所求断面出流速度相等：According to the first-level simultaneous equations (Figure 3), the cross-sectional outflow velocity obtained by the hydrophysical model (Figure 2) at the outlet of the catchment area, that is, the side wall outlet of the conceptual water tank, should be equal to the cross-sectional outflow velocity obtained by the 2D kinematic-wave hydrodynamic model (Figure 5) at the outlet of the catchment area, that is, the x section:
Q1(x)×B(x)＝Q＝qx×A(x) (8)将公式(4)、公式(5)带入公式(8)中可得：Q1 (x) × B (x) = Q = qx × A (x) (8) Substituting formula (4) and formula (5) into formula (8), we can obtain:
经变换，After transformation,
即，Right now,
公式(11)乘以x断面宽度B(x)并沿集水区积分，可得集水区内的总贮水量：Multiplying formula (11) by the width of the x section B(x) and integrating it along the catchment area, the total water storage in the catchment area can be obtained:
根据第二层联立方程式(图3)，公式(11)积分所求出的集水区内的总贮水量(图5中集水区内贮存的水的总量，即为当前时刻地表径流水的总水量)应与水文物理模型所求出的总贮水量(图2中概念性水箱中贮存的水的总量，即为当前时刻尚未流出水箱的总水量)相等，即联立公式(12)和公式(2)：According to the second-level simultaneous equations (Figure 3), the total water storage in the catchment area obtained by integrating formula (11) (the total amount of water stored in the catchment area in Figure 5, that is, the total amount of surface runoff water at the current moment) should be equal to the total water storage obtained by the hydrological physics model (the total amount of water stored in the conceptual water tank in Figure 2, that is, the total amount of water that has not flowed out of the water tank at the current moment), that is, the simultaneous equations (12) and (2):
将公式(12)带入到公式(13)中可得：Substituting formula (12) into formula (13) yields:
假设公式(14)中积分复杂项为幂函数形式：Assume that the integral complex term in formula (14) is in the form of a power function:
式中，b和c为模型参数，.In the formula, b and c are model parameters.
将公式(15)带入公式(14)可得，Substituting formula (15) into formula (14), we can obtain:
联立公式(1)、公式(4)、公式(11)和公式(16)，构建基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警模型的幂函数形式，By combining formula (1), formula (4), formula (11) and formula (16), we can construct the power function form of the flood efficient early warning model based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model.
式中，qx为计算位置x-断面处出流速率(m/s)；为集水区平均曼宁系数(s/m1/3)；S为计算处置处地形梯度(1)；为集水区平均地形梯度(1)；Hx为计算位置处上游集水区平均水深(m)；h(x)为计算位置处的水深(m)；B(x)为计算位置处的断面宽度(m)；V(x)x为计算位置处x方向的流速(m/s)；V(x)y为计算位置处y方向的流速(m/s)；A(x)为计算位置处B(x)所对应的上游集水面积(m2)式中，b和c为模型参数，k为模型调节参数。Where qx is the outflow velocity at the x-section at the calculation position (m/s); is the average Manning coefficient of the catchment area (s/m1/3 ); S is the terrain gradient of the calculation location (1); is the average terrain gradient of the catchment area (1); Hx is the average water depth of the upstream catchment area at the calculation location (m); h(x) is the water depth at the calculation location (m); B(x) is the cross-sectional width at the calculation location (m); V(x)x is the flow velocity in the x direction at the calculation location (m/s); V(x)y is the flow velocity in the y direction at the calculation location (m/s); A(x) is the upstream catchment area corresponding to B(x) at the calculation location (m2 ) where b and c are model parameters and k is a model adjustment parameter.
7)进一步地，根据历史观测资料(逐小时降雨量R、洪水水深和流速)等，对基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方法中的计算参数继续率定。7) Furthermore, according to historical observation data (hourly rainfall R, flood depth and flow velocity), the calculation parameters of the efficient flood early warning method based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model are continuously calibrated.
表1为本发明的具体实施例图(图4)的拟合参数。Table 1 shows the fitting parameters of the specific embodiment diagram ( FIG. 4 ) of the present invention.
表1参数拟合值Table 1 Parameter fitting values
8)进一步地，输出洪水水深、流速的计算结果。8) Further, the calculation results of flood depth and flow velocity are output.
表2为本发明的具体实施例图(图4)的计算效率提升表，结果现实，本发明的洪水预报效率提升在70％以上。Table 2 is a table showing the calculation efficiency improvement of the specific embodiment of the present invention ( FIG. 4 ). The results show that the flood forecasting efficiency of the present invention is improved by more than 70%.
表2 DRM幂函数简化形式计算效率提升表Table 2 DRM power function simplified form calculation efficiency improvement table
本发明所提出的基于水文-水动力集成模型的洪水高效预警方程，是通过巧妙而严格的数学公式推导得出，即通过质量守恒定律，在水文物理模型和2D kinematic-wave水动力模型之间巧妙构建了两层联立方程式，最终经严格数学推导得出的具有清晰数学表达的常微分形式方程。以往技术手段均为通过水文模型和水动力模型之间的数据传递，即通过技术手段实现了水文模型和水动力模型的耦合求解，其核心数学表达式仍然是广泛使用的水文模型的控制方程和水动力模型的控制方程，并未从基础理论层面给出水文-水动力集成模型的清晰数学表达式。The high-efficiency flood warning equation based on the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model proposed in the present invention is derived through an ingenious and rigorous mathematical formula, that is, through the law of conservation of mass, a two-layer simultaneous equation is ingeniously constructed between the hydrological physics model and the 2D kinematic-wave hydrodynamic model, and finally an ordinary differential form equation with clear mathematical expression is obtained through rigorous mathematical derivation. The previous technical means are all through data transmission between the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model, that is, the coupling solution of the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model is realized through technical means, and its core mathematical expression is still the widely used control equation of the hydrological model and the control equation of the hydrodynamic model, and no clear mathematical expression of the hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model is given from the basic theoretical level.
以上显示和描述了本发明的基本原理、主要特征和本发明的优点。本行业的技术人员应该了解，本发明不受上述实施例的限制，上述实施例和说明书中描述的只是本发明的原理，在不脱离本发明精神和范围的前提下本发明还会有各种变化和改进，这些变化和改进都落入要求保护的本发明的范围内。本发明要求的保护范围由所附的权利要求书及其等同物界定。The above shows and describes the basic principles, main features and advantages of the present invention. Those skilled in the art should understand that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. The above embodiments and descriptions only describe the principles of the present invention. The present invention may be subject to various changes and improvements without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. These changes and improvements fall within the scope of the present invention. The scope of protection claimed by the present invention is defined by the attached claims and their equivalents.
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