技术领域technical field
本发明涉及桥梁技术领域，特别涉及一种桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险的预测方法。The invention relates to the technical field of bridges, in particular to a method for predicting the risk of corrosion and fracture of a suspension cable rod of a bridge.
背景技术Background technique
钢丝锈蚀是拉吊索杆检查时出现频率最高的病害，也是拉吊索杆失效最直接的原因；拉吊索杆钢丝出现锈蚀主要是由于钢丝接触到腐蚀介质造成的，例如进入到索体内部的雨水、潮湿空气，甚至微生物的侵入都有可能导致钢丝的锈蚀；另外，无论是平行钢丝索还是钢绞线索，钢丝之间都存在间隙，当外部空气温度降低到一定程度时，钢丝空隙内空气中的水分会冷凝，从而造成索内钢丝的内部积水，加速了钢丝的锈蚀；由于拉吊索杆的防护构造有一定的密封性，导致索体内部的水分等腐蚀介质无法排除，积存在索体的内部，造成拉吊索杆的长期锈蚀。Corrosion of steel wire is the most frequent disease in the inspection of the sling rod, and it is also the most direct cause of failure of the sling rod; the corrosion of the steel wire of the sling rod is mainly caused by the contact of the steel wire with the corrosive medium, such as entering the interior of the cable body Rainwater, moist air, and even the intrusion of microorganisms may cause the corrosion of steel wires; in addition, there are gaps between steel wires whether it is parallel steel wires or steel strands. Moisture in the air will condense, which will cause water accumulation inside the steel wire in the cable, and accelerate the corrosion of the steel wire; because the protective structure of the pulling sling rod has a certain degree of sealing, the corrosive medium such as moisture inside the cable body cannot be removed and accumulates. In the interior of the cable body, long-term corrosion of the pull sling rod is caused.
拉吊索杆锈蚀的研究目前还以实验室为主，模拟外部环境或外部环境与荷载共同作用下钢丝的锈蚀情况，从而得到各锈蚀发展阶段钢丝的外观状况；也有对换下的拉索进行实验研究，得到钢丝锈蚀程度表观分级图像(同济大学陈惟珍、徐俊等)。长安大学胡志鹏参照在役汽油管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测的方法和模型，应用“极值推定法”建立桥梁缆索系统的剩余寿命预测方法，开创了国内桥梁缆索系统的剩余寿命预测的先河。At present, the research on the corrosion of sling rods is still mainly in the laboratory, simulating the corrosion of steel wires under the external environment or the external environment and the load, so as to obtain the appearance of the steel wires in each corrosion development stage; Experimental research has obtained the apparent grading image of the corrosion degree of steel wire (Chen Weizhen, Xu Jun, etc., Tongji University, etc.). Hu Zhipeng of Chang’an University referred to the methods and models for predicting the remaining life of corrosion of gasoline pipelines in service, and applied the “extreme value deduction method” to establish a method for predicting the remaining life of bridge cable systems, creating a precedent for the prediction of remaining life of bridge cable systems in China.
工程实际中一般采用桥梁定检中目视检测的方法对拉吊索杆的技术状况进行估，目前拉吊索杆锈蚀现场无损检测的精度还很难保证，打开保护层进行测试是比较有效的方法，但较难为业主接受。In engineering practice, the method of visual inspection in the regular inspection of bridges is generally used to evaluate the technical condition of the sling rods. At present, the accuracy of non-destructive testing of the corrosion of the sling rods on site is still difficult to guarantee. It is more effective to open the protective layer for testing method, but it is difficult for owners to accept.
可以看出，目前的桥梁拉吊索锈蚀风险评估主要有三种方法：It can be seen that there are three main methods for the current corrosion risk assessment of bridge slings:
1、基于可靠度的桥梁缆索系统的剩余寿命预测方法，该方法中的关键参数临界腐蚀深度难以确定，作者也未将其进行工程应用，且工作量较大；1. Remaining life prediction method of bridge cable system based on reliability. The key parameter critical corrosion depth in this method is difficult to determine, and the author has not applied it in engineering, and the workload is relatively large;
2、基于现场定检和无损检测的方法，受检测仪器精度的制约无法达到较为准确的预测；2. Based on on-site regular inspection and non-destructive testing methods, it is impossible to achieve more accurate predictions due to the constraints of the accuracy of testing instruments;
3、根据实验室锈蚀阶段图示进行对比判断实桥拉吊索杆的锈蚀阶段，需打开保护层进行测试，难以为业主接受。3. To compare and judge the corrosion stage of the suspension rod of the real bridge according to the diagram of the corrosion stage in the laboratory, the protective layer needs to be opened for testing, which is difficult for the owner to accept.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明的目的在于克服现有技术中所存在的现有桥梁拉吊索锈蚀风险评估方法要么难以确定临界腐蚀深度这个关键参数且工作量较大、要么受检测仪器精度的制约无法达到较为准确的预测、要么需打开保护层进行测试，难以为业主接受的上述不足，提供一种桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险的预测方法。The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the existing methods for assessing the risk of corrosion of the bridge pull and sling in the prior art, either it is difficult to determine the key parameter of the critical corrosion depth and the workload is large, or it is limited by the accuracy of the detection instrument and cannot achieve a more accurate Prediction, or need to open the protective layer for testing, it is difficult for the owner to accept the above-mentioned deficiencies, to provide a method for predicting the risk of corrosion and fracture of the suspension rod of the bridge.
为了实现上述发明目的，本发明提供了以下技术方案：In order to realize the above-mentioned purpose of the invention, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:
一种桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险的预测方法，包括以下步骤：A method for predicting the risk of corrosion and fracture of a suspension rod of a bridge, comprising the following steps:
S1、收集桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀事件的统计数据与案例数据，所述案例数据包括桥梁拉吊索杆断裂事件信息和拉吊索杆更换信息；S1. Collect the statistical data and case data of the corrosion incident of the sling rod of the bridge, and the case data includes the fracture event information of the sling rod of the bridge and the replacement information of the sling rod;
S2、对所述拉吊索杆断裂事件信息基于事故树进行反演研究，得出所述拉吊索杆锈蚀的风险场景；S2. Carrying out an inversion study on the breakage event information of the pulling sling rod based on the fault tree, and obtaining the risk scenario of the corrosion of the pulling sling rod;
S3、基于所述拉吊索杆更换信息，选择所述拉吊索杆的换索年限作为分类指标；S3. Based on the replacement information of the pulling sling rod, select the cable replacement period of the pulling sling rod as a classification index;
S4、分别针对所述拉吊索杆更换信息中的拉吊索和吊杆进行聚类分析，将换索年限分为最长(Ⅰ型)、长(Ⅱ型)、中(Ⅲ型)、极短(Ⅳ型)四种类型；S4. Carry out cluster analysis on the pull slings and booms in the pull sling bar replacement information respectively, and divide the cable change years into the longest (type I), long (type II), medium (type III), Very short (type IV) four types;
S5、根据《公路桥梁技术状况评定标准》，所述拉吊索杆的技术状况为一类(对应无锈蚀)、二类(对应轻度锈蚀)、三类(对应中度锈蚀)、四类(对应重度锈蚀)和五类(对应严重锈蚀需要更换)，建立桥梁每年技术状况劣化的马尔科夫矩阵的简化模式，计算达到平均寿命时桥梁技术状况概率分布；S5. According to the "Technical Status Evaluation Standards for Highway Bridges", the technical status of the pull sling bars is Class I (corresponding to no rust), Class II (corresponding to mild corrosion), Class III (corresponding to moderate corrosion), and Class IV (corresponding to severe corrosion) and five categories (corresponding to severe corrosion that needs to be replaced), establish a simplified model of the Markov matrix of the bridge's annual technical condition degradation, and calculate the probability distribution of the bridge's technical condition when the average life is reached;
S6、根据所述拉吊索杆的平均使用年限，参照桥梁达平均寿命时的技术状况概率分布，计算各类型换索年限的所述拉吊索杆退化的马尔科夫矩阵参数；S6. According to the average service life of the pull sling bars, with reference to the technical condition probability distribution when the bridge reaches the average service life, calculate the Markov matrix parameters of the degeneration of the pull sling bars for various types of cable replacement years;
S7、将所述马尔科夫矩阵参数代入所述马尔科夫矩阵的简化模式，得出初始技术状况为一类、二类、三类或四类的各类型换索年限的所述拉吊索杆在一年内发展为五类的概率模型，即得到所述风险场景的风险发生概率模型；S7. Substituting the Markov matrix parameters into the simplified model of the Markov matrix to obtain the pull slings with the initial technical status of Class I, Class II, Class III or Class IV and the number of years for each type of cable replacement Within one year, the levers are developed into five types of probability models, that is, the risk occurrence probability models of the risk scenarios are obtained;
S8、建立风险损失概率模型；S8. Establishing a risk loss probability model;
S9、基于风险场景中风险源集及其层次结构，建立可扩展的风险评估指标体系，得出需要预测的桥梁的所述拉吊索杆的风险发生概率模型和风险损失概率模型，并计算各种风险损失的人员死亡数量和经济损失，用以定量预测桥梁的所述拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险。S9. Based on the risk source set and its hierarchical structure in the risk scenario, establish an extensible risk assessment index system, obtain the risk occurrence probability model and risk loss probability model of the pull hanger bar of the bridge that needs to be predicted, and calculate each The number of fatalities and economic losses of such risk losses are used to quantitatively predict the risk of corrosion and fracture of the suspension rods of the bridge.
采用本发明所述的一种桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险的预测方法，基于事故反演和统计理论，解决了目前桥梁工程拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险评估使用的方法实用性、准确度不足的问题，和当前方法相比评估工作量较小，准确度较高，达到了可操作性与针对性的平衡，适用于大批缆索承重桥梁的锈蚀风险评估，能够提高缆索承重桥梁锈蚀安全风险管理水平，减小锈蚀断裂风险事件下人员伤亡和财产损失，可以快速得到较为可靠的定量风险结果，提高对缆索承重体系桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂事件的预控能力和应急响应水平。A method for predicting the risk of corrosion and fracture of the suspension rods of bridges according to the present invention is based on accident inversion and statistical theory, which solves the lack of practicability and accuracy of the method currently used in the assessment of the risk of corrosion and fracture of suspension rods in bridge engineering Compared with the current method, the evaluation workload is less, the accuracy is higher, and the balance between operability and pertinence has been achieved. It is suitable for the corrosion risk assessment of a large number of cable-bearing bridges and can improve the corrosion safety risk management of cable-bearing bridges. To reduce casualties and property losses under corrosion and fracture risk events, more reliable quantitative risk results can be obtained quickly, and the pre-control ability and emergency response level of corrosion and fracture events of bridge pull and suspender rods in cable load-bearing systems can be improved.
优选地，所述步骤S2中，根据所述拉吊索杆断裂事件信息基于事故树进行反演研究绘制风险场景图。Preferably, in the step S2, inverse research is carried out based on the fault tree to draw a risk scenario map according to the breakage event information of the pulling suspender rod.
优选地，所述步骤S6中，采用统计分析方法和数学软件计算马尔科夫矩阵参数。Preferably, in the step S6, the parameters of the Markov matrix are calculated using statistical analysis methods and mathematical software.
优选地，所述数学软件包括Matlab、SPSS或SQL Server。Preferably, the mathematical software includes Matlab, SPSS or SQL Server.
优选地，所述步骤S8中，所述风险损失概率模型为锈蚀损失概率模型。Preferably, in the step S8, the risk loss probability model is a corrosion loss probability model.
优选地，所述步骤S9包括以下步骤：Preferably, said step S9 includes the following steps:
S91、需要预测的桥梁的所述拉吊索杆当前锈蚀状况评估，确定所述拉吊索杆的所述技术状况；S91. Evaluate the current corrosion status of the suspension rod of the bridge that needs to be predicted, and determine the technical condition of the suspension rod;
S92、对风险场景中所述拉吊索杆锈蚀的风险源进行检查，并根据检查结果建立所述风险评估指标体系；S92. Inspect the risk sources of the corrosion of the sling rods in the risk scenario, and establish the risk assessment index system according to the inspection results;
S93、对所述风险评估指标体系进行拓展；S93. Expand the risk assessment index system;
S94、建立所述风险评估指标体系的评价标准，得出需要预测的桥梁的所述拉吊索杆经过所述风险评估指标体系评估后的风险发生概率和风险损失概率类型；S94. Establishing the evaluation standard of the risk assessment index system, and obtaining the risk occurrence probability and risk loss probability type of the pull hanger bar of the bridge to be predicted after being evaluated by the risk assessment index system;
S95、将需要预测的桥梁的所述拉吊索杆当前的所述技术状况和评估后的所述风险发生概率和风险损失概率类型代入所述风险发生概率模型和所述风险损失概率模型，分别得出需要预测的桥梁的风险发生概率和风险损失概率；S95. Substituting the current technical status of the pull suspenders of the bridge that needs to be predicted and the estimated risk occurrence probability and risk loss probability type into the risk occurrence probability model and the risk loss probability model, respectively Obtain the risk occurrence probability and risk loss probability of bridges that need to be predicted;
S96、计算各种风险损失的人员死亡数量和经济损失，从而定量预测桥梁的所述拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险。S96. Calculating the number of fatalities and economic losses of various risk losses, thereby quantitatively predicting the risk of rusting and fracture of the suspension rods of the bridge.
优选地，所述步骤S92中，所述风险源包括所述拉吊索杆严重锈蚀发生的风险源和所述拉吊索杆锈蚀损失的风险源。Preferably, in the step S92, the risk sources include a risk source of severe corrosion of the pulling sling rod and a risk source of corrosion loss of the pulling sling rod.
优选地，所述步骤S93包括以下步骤：Preferably, said step S93 includes the following steps:
S931、将需要预测的桥梁的独有风险源加入风险场景作为新增风险源，并根据风险源集的层次逻辑结构判断其属于影响风险发生概率的风险源集还是影响风险损失概率的风险源集；S931. Add the unique risk source of the bridge that needs to be predicted to the risk scenario as a new risk source, and judge whether it belongs to the risk source set that affects the probability of risk occurrence or the risk source set that affects the probability of risk loss according to the hierarchical logic structure of the risk source set ;
S932、判断所述新增风险源对风险发生或风险损失的影响大小；S932. Determine the impact of the newly added risk source on risk occurrence or risk loss;
S933、为所述新增风险源选择有效、可靠、可测的评价指标，与识别出的既有所述风险源共同构成评估指标体系。S933. Select an effective, reliable, and measurable evaluation index for the newly added risk source, and form an evaluation index system together with the identified existing risk source.
优选地，所述步骤S9中，根据计算的各种风险损失的人员伤亡和经济损失，将其坐标点绘制在可接受风险ALARP(As Low As Reasonably Practicable，最低合理可行)图中，从而评估该风险的可接受程度。Preferably, in the step S9, according to the calculated casualties and economic losses of various risk losses, its coordinate points are plotted in an acceptable risk ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable, minimum reasonable and practicable) diagram, thereby evaluating the acceptable level of risk.
优选地，所述可接受风险ALARP图包括在役桥梁缺陷致可接受社会风险ALARP图和在役桥梁可接受财产损失风险ALARP图。Preferably, the acceptable risk ALARP diagram includes an acceptable social risk ALARP diagram caused by bridge defects in service and an acceptable property loss risk ALARP diagram for bridges in service.
综上所述，由于采用了上述技术方案，本发明的有益效果是：In summary, owing to adopting above-mentioned technical scheme, the beneficial effect of the present invention is:
运用本发明所述的一种桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险的预测方法，基于事故反演和统计理论，解决了目前桥梁工程拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险评估使用的方法实用性、准确度不足的问题，和当前方法相比评估工作量较小，准确度较高，达到了可操作性与针对性的平衡，适用于大批缆索承重桥梁的锈蚀风险评估，能够提高缆索承重桥梁锈蚀安全风险管理水平，减小锈蚀断裂风险事件下人员伤亡和财产损失，可以快速得到较为可靠的定量风险结果，提高对缆索承重体系桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂事件的预控能力和应急响应水平。Using a method for predicting the risk of corrosion and fracture of the suspension rod of the bridge according to the present invention, based on the accident inversion and statistical theory, the lack of practicability and accuracy of the method currently used for the risk assessment of the corrosion and fracture of the suspension rod of the bridge engineering is solved Compared with the current method, the evaluation workload is less, the accuracy is higher, and the balance between operability and pertinence has been achieved. It is suitable for the corrosion risk assessment of a large number of cable-bearing bridges and can improve the corrosion safety risk management of cable-bearing bridges. To reduce casualties and property losses under corrosion and fracture risk events, more reliable quantitative risk results can be obtained quickly, and the pre-control ability and emergency response level of corrosion and fracture events of bridge pull and suspender rods in cable load-bearing systems can be improved.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1为本发明所述的一种桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险的预测方法的流程示意图；Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting the risk of corrosion and fracture of a bridge pull hanger bar according to the present invention;
图2为实施例中的中下承式拱桥吊杆的锈蚀风险场景图；Fig. 2 is the corrosion risk scene diagram of the suspender of the under-supported arch bridge in the embodiment;
图3为实施例中的悬索桥吊索的锈蚀风险场景图；Fig. 3 is the corrosion risk scene diagram of the suspension bridge suspension cable in the embodiment;
图4为实施例中的斜拉桥拉索的锈蚀风险场景图；Fig. 4 is the corrosion risk scene figure of cable-stayed bridge stay cable in the embodiment;
图5为实施例中的在役桥梁缺陷致可接受社会风险ALARP图；Fig. 5 is the acceptable social risk ALARP diagram caused by bridge defects in service in the embodiment;
图6为实施例中的在役桥梁可接受财产损失风险ALARP图。Fig. 6 is the acceptable property loss risk ALARP diagram of the bridge in service in the embodiment.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面结合试验例及具体实施方式对本发明作进一步的详细描述。但不应将此理解为本发明上述主题的范围仅限于以下的实施例，凡基于本发明内容所实现的技术均属于本发明的范围。The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with test examples and specific embodiments. However, it should not be understood that the scope of the above subject matter of the present invention is limited to the following embodiments, and all technologies realized based on the content of the present invention belong to the scope of the present invention.
实施例Example
如图1-6所示，本发明所述的一种桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险的预测方法，包括以下步骤：As shown in Figures 1-6, a method for predicting the risk of corrosion and fracture of a bridge pull sling bar according to the present invention comprises the following steps:
S1、收集我国桥梁库中大桥的技术状况劣化信息、退役大桥档案信息、拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂事件的统计数据与案例数据，所述案例数据包括809座桥梁技术状况劣化信息、357起退役大桥档案信息、18起桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂事件信息和53起桥梁拉吊索杆更换信息；S1. Collect information on the deterioration of the technical condition of bridges in my country's bridge library, archive information on decommissioned bridges, statistical data and case data on the incidents of corrosion and fracture of suspension rods. The case data includes information on the deterioration of technical conditions of 809 bridges and 357 decommissioned bridges Archive information, information on 18 incidents of corrosion and breakage of bridge pull and hanger rods, and information on 53 bridge pull and hanger rod replacements;
S2、对所述拉吊索杆断裂事件信息基于事故树进行反演研究，绘制所述拉吊索杆锈蚀的风险场景图，如图2-4所示，根据不同所述拉吊索杆桥梁的类型绘制不同的风险场景图；S2. Carry out an inversion study based on the fault tree for the fracture event information of the sling bar, and draw the risk scene diagram of the sling bar corrosion, as shown in Figure 2-4, according to different bridges of the sling bar different types of risk scenarios;
S3、对53起桥梁拉吊索杆更换信息进行换索年限与建设年代、主跨径的相关性分析可知，换索年限与建设年代、主跨径基本不具相关性，因而直接选择所述拉吊索杆的换索年限作为分类指标；S3. According to the correlation analysis of the replacement information of 53 bridge pull and suspender rods, the cable replacement period and the construction year and the main span have basically no correlation, so directly select the The cable replacement life of the sling rod is used as a classification index;
S4、分别针对所述拉吊索杆更换信息中的21起拉吊索和32起吊杆进行如表1和表2所示的聚类分析，将换索年限分为最长(Ⅰ型)、长(Ⅱ型)、中(Ⅲ型)、极短(Ⅳ型)四种类型；S4. Carry out cluster analysis as shown in Table 1 and Table 2 respectively for the 21 lifting slings and 32 lifting rods in the replacement information of the pulling sling rods, and divide the changing years into the longest (Type I), Long (Type II), Medium (Type III) and Very Short (Type IV) four types;
表1、拉吊索换索年限的聚类分析Table 1. Cluster analysis of the number of years for sling replacement
表2、吊杆换索年限的聚类分析Table 2. Cluster analysis of boom cable replacement years
S5、根据《公路桥梁技术状况评定标准》，所述拉吊索杆的技术状况为一类(对应无锈蚀)、二类(对应轻度锈蚀)、三类(对应中度锈蚀)、四类(对应重度锈蚀)和五类(对应严重锈蚀需要更换)，桥梁的劣化一般被认为具有马尔科夫性，根据我国809座桥梁统计的8年的技术状况劣化数据，建立符合我国桥梁每年技术状况劣化模式的马尔科夫矩阵的简化模式，如式1所示；S5. According to the "Technical Status Evaluation Standards for Highway Bridges", the technical status of the pull sling bars is Class I (corresponding to no rust), Class II (corresponding to mild corrosion), Class III (corresponding to moderate corrosion), and Class IV (corresponding to severe corrosion) and five categories (corresponding to severe corrosion that needs to be replaced), the deterioration of bridges is generally considered to be Markovian. According to the 8-year technical condition degradation data of 809 bridges in my country, the establishment of bridges that meet the annual technical conditions of my country's bridges The simplified mode of the Markov matrix of the degradation mode, as shown in formula 1;
式1、符合我国桥梁劣化模式的马尔科夫矩阵的简化模式Equation 1. Simplified model of Markov matrix conforming to my country's bridge degradation model
根据357起退役大桥档案信息，计算得其平均使用寿命为29.20年，标准差为8.86年，根据式1，计算初始技术状况为一类的大桥达平均寿命(29年)时的技术状况概率分布。According to the archival information of 357 decommissioned bridges, the average service life is calculated to be 29.20 years, and the standard deviation is 8.86 years. According to formula 1, the probability distribution of the technical condition when the initial technical condition of the bridge reaches the average service life (29 years) is calculated .
S6、根据表1中所述拉吊索和表2中所述吊杆的平均使用年限和上述桥梁达到平均寿命(29年)时的技术状况概率分布，利用Matlab计算马尔科夫矩阵参数P1、P2、P3、P4，如表3、表4所示；S6, according to the average service life of the suspension rod described in Table 1 and the suspender described in Table 2 and the technical condition probability distribution when the above-mentioned bridge reaches the average life (29 years), utilize Matlab to calculate the Markov matrix parameter P1 , P2 , P3 , P4 , as shown in Table 3 and Table 4;
表3、各类型换索年限拉吊索的马尔科夫矩阵参数Table 3. Markov matrix parameters of pull slings with various types of cable replacement years
表4、各类型换索年限吊杆的马尔科夫矩阵参数Table 4. Markov matrix parameters of various types of suspension rods
S7、将表3、表4中所述马尔科夫矩阵参数分别代入式1中所述马尔科夫矩阵的简化模式，得出初始技术状况为一类、二类、三类或四类的各类型换索年限的所述拉吊索杆在一年内发展为五类的概率模型，即如表5所示的所述风险场景的风险发生概率模型；S7. Substituting the Markov matrix parameters described in Table 3 and Table 4 into the simplified model of the Markov matrix described in Formula 1 respectively, to obtain the initial technical status of each of the first class, second class, third class or fourth class The described pulling sling bar of type changing rope years develops into five kinds of probability models within one year, namely the risk occurrence probability model of the described risk scene as shown in Table 5;
表5、锈蚀致拉吊索杆构件失效的风险发生概率模型Table 5. Probability model of risk occurrence of corrosion-induced failure of tensile suspenders
S8、建立风险损失概率模型，由于风险损失来自所述拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂和可能引发的桥梁倒塌，根据18起桥梁的所述拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂事件信息，建立锈蚀损失概率模型，其中I型、Ⅱ型的桥梁倒塌概率可忽略，Ⅲ型、Ⅳ型的桥梁倒塌概率值借助有限元计算若干根所述拉吊索杆失效时的桥梁倒塌概率得到，因而所述风险损失概率模型为如表6所示的锈蚀损失概率模型；S8. Establish a risk loss probability model. Since the risk loss comes from the corrosion and fracture of the sling bars and the possible collapse of the bridge, according to the corrosion and fracture event information of the sling bars of 18 bridges, a corrosion loss probability model is established, wherein The bridge collapse probability of type I and type II can be ignored, and the collapse probability of bridges of type III and type IV is obtained by means of finite element calculations of the bridge collapse probability when a number of said pull hangers fail, so the risk loss probability model is: The corrosion loss probability model shown in Table 6;
表6、锈蚀损失概率模型Table 6. Corrosion loss probability model
S9、需要预测的桥梁的所述拉吊索杆当前锈蚀状况评估，确定所述拉吊索杆的所述技术状况；S9. Evaluate the current corrosion status of the pull hanger rod of the bridge that needs to be predicted, and determine the technical condition of the pull hanger rod;
《公路桥涵养护规范》桥梁技术状况评定标准中，没有针对所述拉吊索杆的评定标准，《公路桥梁技术状况评定标准》(JTGT H21-2011)中对主缆、吊索、拉索等部件技术状况分别制定了评定标准，这些评价指标部分反映了锈蚀情况，大部分反映了防护体系的完整性，判定当前锈蚀情况时可视资料齐全程度选择下列两种方法之一：In the "Code for Maintenance of Highway Bridges and Culverts" bridge technical condition assessment standard, there is no assessment standard for the above-mentioned pulling suspenders. Evaluation standards have been formulated for the technical status of components. These evaluation indicators partially reflect the corrosion situation, and most of them reflect the integrity of the protection system. When judging the current corrosion situation, one of the following two methods can be selected depending on the completeness of the data:
1)若提供了各所述拉吊索杆构件的各评价指标取值，应分别用最严重构件的拉索锈蚀、断丝(适用于斜拉索)，锈蚀、断丝(适用于吊杆)，主缆腐蚀或索股损坏(适用于主缆)，锈蚀、腐蚀、断丝(适用于吊索)的评定标度来确定当前锈蚀情况，其中1类对应无锈蚀、2类对应轻度锈蚀、3类对应中度锈蚀、4类对应重度锈蚀、5类对应严重锈蚀需要更换；1) If the values of each evaluation index for each of the above-mentioned suspension rod components are provided, the corrosion and broken wires (applicable to stay cables) and corrosion and broken wires (applicable to suspension rods) of the most serious components shall be used respectively. ), main cable corrosion or strand damage (applicable to main cable), corrosion, corrosion, and wire breakage (applicable to sling) to determine the current corrosion situation, of which class 1 corresponds to no corrosion and class 2 corresponds to mild corrosion Corrosion, category 3 corresponds to moderate corrosion, category 4 corresponds to severe corrosion, category 5 corresponds to severe corrosion and needs to be replaced;
2)由于定检报告中往往只有部件评估等级，上述评价指标的取值、甚至各所述拉吊索杆构件的评分都无法看到，按照相关部件得分和表7可以得知该部件的技术状况等级，其中1类对应无锈蚀、2类对应轻度锈蚀、3类对应中度锈蚀、4类对应重度锈蚀、5类对应严重锈蚀需要更换；2) Since there are often only component evaluation grades in the regular inspection report, the values of the above-mentioned evaluation indicators, and even the scores of the above-mentioned pull sling rod components cannot be seen. According to the relevant component scores and Table 7, the technology of the component can be known. Condition grade, in which class 1 corresponds to no rust, class 2 corresponds to mild rust, class 3 corresponds to moderate rust, class 4 corresponds to severe rust, and class 5 corresponds to severe rust and needs to be replaced;
表7、桥梁技术状况分类界限表(JTGT H21-2011)Table 7. Classification boundary table of bridge technical status (JTGT H21-2011)
S10、对风险场景中所述拉吊索杆的风险源进行检查，并根据检查结果建立所述风险评估指标体系，所述风险源包括如表8所示的所述拉吊索杆严重锈蚀发生的风险源和如表10所示的所述拉吊索杆锈蚀损失的风险源；S10. Inspect the risk source of the sling rod in the risk scenario, and establish the risk assessment index system according to the inspection results, the risk source includes the severe corrosion of the sling rod as shown in Table 8 The source of risk and the source of risk of corrosion loss of the sling rod as shown in Table 10;
表8、严重锈蚀发生的风险源分析Table 8. Analysis of risk sources of severe corrosion
根据表8，制定如表9所示的所述拉吊索杆严重锈蚀发生的风险评估指标体系；According to Table 8, formulate the risk assessment index system that the severe corrosion of the said pulling sling bar as shown in Table 9 takes place;
表9、拉吊索杆严重锈蚀发生的风险评估指标体系Table 9. Risk assessment index system for severe corrosion of sling rods
对所述拉吊索杆锈蚀损失的风险源分析如表10所示：The risk source analysis of the corrosion loss of the sling rod is shown in Table 10:
表10、拉吊索杆锈蚀损失的风险源分析Table 10. Analysis of risk sources for corrosion loss of sling rods
根据表10，制定如表11所示的所述拉吊索杆锈蚀损失的风险评估指标体系；According to Table 10, formulate the risk assessment index system of the said pulling sling bar corrosion loss as shown in Table 11;
表11、拉吊索杆锈蚀损失的风险评估指标体系Table 11. Risk assessment index system for corrosion loss of sling rods
S11、将需要预测的桥梁的独有风险源加入风险场景作为新增风险源，并根据风险源集的层次逻辑结构判断其属于影响风险发生概率的风险源集还是影响风险损失概率的风险源集；S11. Add the unique risk source of the bridge that needs to be predicted to the risk scenario as a new risk source, and judge whether it belongs to the risk source set that affects the probability of risk occurrence or the risk source set that affects the probability of risk loss according to the hierarchical logical structure of the risk source set ;
S12、判断所述新增风险源对风险发生或风险损失的影响大小；S12. Judging the impact of the added risk source on risk occurrence or risk loss;
S13、为所述新增风险源选择有效、可靠、可测的评价指标，与识别出的既有所述风险源共同构成评估指标体系；S13. Select an effective, reliable, and measurable evaluation index for the newly added risk source, and form an evaluation index system together with the identified existing risk source;
S14、建立如表12所示的所述风险评估指标体系的评价标准，得出需要预测的桥梁的所述拉吊索杆经过所述风险评估指标体系评估后的风险发生概率和风险损失概率类型；S14. Establish the evaluation criteria of the risk assessment index system as shown in Table 12, and obtain the risk occurrence probability and risk loss probability type of the pull hanger bar of the bridge that needs to be predicted after being evaluated by the risk assessment index system ;
表12、风险评估指标体系的评价标准Table 12. Evaluation criteria of the risk assessment index system
S15、将需要预测的桥梁的所述拉吊索杆当前的所述技术状况(即表7的结果)和评估后的所述风险发生概率和风险损失概率类型(即表12的结果)代入所述风险发生概率模型(即表5)和所述风险损失概率模型(即表6)，分别得出需要预测的桥梁的风险发生概率和风险损失概率；S15, substituting the current technical status (i.e. the result of Table 7) and the evaluated risk occurrence probability and risk loss probability type (i.e. the result of Table 12) of the pull hanger bar of the bridge that needs to be predicted into the Described risk occurrence probability model (i.e. table 5) and described risk loss probability model (i.e. table 6), draw respectively the risk occurrence probability and the risk loss probability of bridges that need to be predicted;
S16、计算各种风险损失的人员死亡数量和经济损失，其中经济损失考虑结构损伤和通行受阻损失，所述拉吊索杆失效不产生生命损失，仅有经济损失，桥梁倒塌有生命损失和经济损失；S16. Calculating the number of fatalities and economic losses of various risk losses, wherein economic losses consider structural damage and traffic obstruction losses, and the failure of the pulling sling bar does not produce loss of life, only economic loss, and bridge collapse has loss of life and economic loss. loss;
1)生命损失计算1) Calculation of life loss
生命损失计算公式(单位：人)Calculation formula for loss of life (unit: person)
生命损失＝影响系数×日交通量×每车平均人次×桥梁长度/设计车速/24Loss of life = impact coefficient × daily traffic volume × average number of passengers per vehicle × bridge length/design vehicle speed/24
其中，影响系数无单位，日交通量单位为辆，每车平均人次单位为(人/车)，桥梁长度单位为公里，设计车速为(公里/每小时)；Among them, the influence coefficient has no unit, the unit of daily traffic volume is vehicle, the unit of average person-time per vehicle is (person/vehicle), the unit of bridge length is kilometer, and the design vehicle speed is (km/hour);
2)结构损伤计算2) Structural damage calculation
方法为根据相似工程费用进行估算；The method is to estimate based on the cost of similar projects;
3)通行受阻损失计算3) Calculation of traffic obstruction loss
吊索更换工程不封闭交通，但可能对交通造成一定影响，将损失过桥费。假设在影响通车的时间内，占总量之比为r的车辆选择绕行，则通行受阻损失Ctl计算公式为：The sling replacement project does not close the traffic, but it may have a certain impact on the traffic, and the bridge toll will be lost. Assuming that during the time that affects the opening of traffic, vehicles with a ratio of r to the total choose to detour, the formula for calculating the traffic obstruction loss Ctl is:
Ctl＝t×r×TOLL×ADTCtl =t×r×TOLL×ADT
其中t为影响通车的时间(单位为日)，TOLL为过桥费收取标准(单位为元/车.公里)，ADT为日均交通量(单位为辆)，r为绕行比例；Among them, t is the time of impact on traffic opening (unit is day), TOLL is the charging standard of bridge toll (unit is yuan/vehicle.km), ADT is the average daily traffic volume (unit is vehicle), and r is the detour ratio;
S17、根据计算的各种风险损失的人员伤亡和经济损失，将其坐标点绘制在可接受风险ALARP图中，从而评估该风险的可接受程度，所述可接受风险ALARP图包括如图5所示的在役桥梁缺陷致可接受社会风险ALARP图和如图6所示的在役桥梁可接受财产损失风险ALARP图。S17. According to the calculated casualties and economic losses of various risk losses, its coordinate points are plotted in the acceptable risk ALARP diagram, thereby assessing the acceptability of the risk. The acceptable risk ALARP diagram includes as shown in Figure 5 The acceptable social risk ALARP diagram of in-service bridge defects and the acceptable property loss risk ALARP diagram of in-service bridges shown in Figure 6.
运用本发明所述的一种桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险的预测方法，基于事故反演和统计理论，解决了目前桥梁工程拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂风险评估使用的方法实用性、准确度不足的问题，和当前方法相比评估工作量较小，准确度较高，达到了可操作性与针对性的平衡，适用于大批缆索承重桥梁的锈蚀风险评估，能够提高缆索承重桥梁锈蚀安全风险管理水平，减小锈蚀断裂风险事件下人员伤亡和财产损失，可以快速得到较为可靠的定量风险结果，提高对缆索承重体系桥梁拉吊索杆锈蚀断裂事件的预控能力和应急响应水平。Using a method for predicting the risk of corrosion and fracture of the suspension rod of the bridge according to the present invention, based on the accident inversion and statistical theory, the lack of practicability and accuracy of the method currently used for the risk assessment of the corrosion and fracture of the suspension rod of the bridge engineering is solved Compared with the current method, the evaluation workload is less, the accuracy is higher, and the balance between operability and pertinence has been achieved. It is suitable for the corrosion risk assessment of a large number of cable-bearing bridges and can improve the corrosion safety risk management of cable-bearing bridges. To reduce casualties and property losses under corrosion and fracture risk events, more reliable quantitative risk results can be obtained quickly, and the pre-control ability and emergency response level of corrosion and fracture events of bridge pull and suspender rods in cable load-bearing systems can be improved.
以上所述仅为本发明的较佳实施例而已，并不用以限制本发明，凡在本发明的精神和原则之内所作的任何修改、等同替换和改进等，均应包含在本发明的保护范围之内。The above descriptions are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent replacements and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection of the present invention. within range.
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| CN201810936582.2ACN109034492B (en) | 2018-08-16 | 2018-08-16 | A Prediction Method for the Risk of Corrosion and Fracture of Suspension Rods of Bridges |
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