技术领域technical field
本发明属于配电网项目融资租赁风险评估领域，具体地说是一种基于云模型-修正熵权法、站在承租方的角度对配电网项目融资租赁风险进行评估的方法。The invention belongs to the field of financial leasing risk assessment of distribution network projects, and specifically relates to a method for evaluating the risk of financial leasing of distribution network projects from the perspective of a lessee based on a cloud model-modified entropy weight method.
背景技术Background technique
近年来，我国经济进入相对稳定的新常态，作为新的经济增长点，国务院明确要求提高城市基础设施建设及管理水平，进一步加强城市配电网建设。新一轮电力体制改革要求有序放开售电业务，推进交易机构相对独立、规范运行，鼓励社会资本进入增量配电网投资领域，除电网公司外，未来配电网建设主体还将包括由社会资本参与成立的配售电公司。配电网具有单个设备投资低，但数量多，总投资规模大的特点。因而增量配电网的建设将会给电网公司特别是投资能力较薄弱的配售电公司带来较大的财务压力。In recent years, my country's economy has entered a relatively stable new normal. As a new economic growth point, the State Council has clearly requested to improve the level of urban infrastructure construction and management, and further strengthen the construction of urban distribution networks. The new round of power system reform requires the orderly liberalization of electricity sales business, promotes the relatively independent and standardized operation of trading institutions, and encourages social capital to enter the field of incremental distribution network investment. In addition to power grid companies, future distribution network construction entities will also include An electricity distribution and sales company established with the participation of social capital. The distribution network has the characteristics of low investment for a single device, but a large number and a large total investment scale. Therefore, the construction of the incremental distribution network will bring greater financial pressure to the power grid companies, especially the power distribution and sales companies with weak investment capabilities.
项目融资租赁是出租人根据承租方的要求进行项目的投资建设，项目建成后出租给承租方，承租方负责项目的经营并偿还租金的一种融资方式。采用项目融资租赁方式进行新增配电网项目建设可以有效缓解现金流压力，降低融资成本，是未来新增配电网投资方重点考虑采用的一种融资方式。Project finance leasing is a financing method in which the lessor conducts project investment and construction according to the requirements of the lessee, and leases the project to the lessee after the project is completed, and the lessee is responsible for the operation of the project and repays the rent. The use of project financing leases for the construction of new distribution network projects can effectively relieve cash flow pressure and reduce financing costs. It is a financing method that investors in new distribution networks will focus on in the future.
项目风险评估是在风险识别之后，通过对项目所有不确定性和风险要素的充分、系统而又有条理的考虑，确定项目的单个风险。然后，对项目风险进行综合评价。它是在对项目风险进行规划、识别和估计的基础上，通过建立风险的系统模型，从而找到该项目的关键风险，确定项目的整体风险水平，为如何处置这些风险提供科学依据，以保障项目的顺利进行。因此，对配电网融资租赁项目风险进行系统识别和评估具有重要的现实意义。Project risk assessment is to determine the individual risks of the project through full, systematic and methodical consideration of all uncertainties and risk elements of the project after risk identification. Then, comprehensively evaluate the project risk. It is based on the planning, identification and estimation of project risks, through the establishment of a risk system model, so as to find the key risks of the project, determine the overall risk level of the project, and provide scientific basis for how to deal with these risks, so as to guarantee the project went smoothly. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to systematically identify and evaluate the risks of distribution network financial leasing projects.
目前已有的研究主要包括：从出租人的角度考虑电网工程项目融资租赁的模式，承租人的信用评价和电网项目经营期风险管理。从承租方的角度对配电网项目融资租赁风险的研究很少。评估风险过程中，根据实际需要的不同的风险进行定性风险和定量分析，常用的有专家调查法等，但这一方法主观性强，依赖于专家水平；定量分析则是将体现风险特征的指标量化，加深对风险因素的认识，有助于风险管理者采取更具针对性的对策和措施，常用的方法有敏感性分析、蒙特卡罗分析等，但这些方法存在各自的弊端，如敏感性分析智能体现风险因素的强度而不能反映发生概率，也不能反映众多风险因素同时变化时对项目的综合影响，蒙特卡洛分析的不足之处是依赖于待定的随机过程和选择的历史数据，不能反映风险因素之间的相互关系。因此，仅单一对上述方法的使用无法对风险做出准确评估，影响了配电网项目的融资租赁规划。The existing research mainly includes: from the lessor's point of view, consider the mode of financial leasing of power grid project, the credit evaluation of the lessee and the risk management of power grid project operation period. From the lessee's point of view, there are few studies on the financial leasing risks of distribution network projects. In the process of risk assessment, qualitative risk and quantitative analysis are carried out according to the actual needs of different risks. The commonly used method is the expert survey method, etc., but this method is highly subjective and depends on the level of experts; quantitative analysis is an indicator that will reflect the characteristics of the risk Quantification, deepening the understanding of risk factors, helps risk managers to take more targeted countermeasures and measures. Commonly used methods include sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo analysis, etc., but these methods have their own drawbacks, such as sensitivity Analysis intelligence reflects the intensity of risk factors but cannot reflect the probability of occurrence, nor can it reflect the comprehensive impact on the project when many risk factors change at the same time. Reflect the interrelationships among risk factors. Therefore, only the use of the above method alone cannot make an accurate assessment of the risk, which affects the financing lease planning of the distribution network project.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明所要解决的技术问题是克服上述现有技术存在缺陷，提供一种基于云模型-修正熵权法的配电网项目融资租赁风险评估方法，其建立在配电网项目融资租赁风险指标体系上，以实现科学评估，为决策者和管理者提供参考。The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to overcome the above-mentioned defects in the prior art, and provide a risk assessment method for distribution network project financing lease based on cloud model-modified entropy weight method, which is established in the risk index system of distribution network project financing lease In order to achieve scientific assessment and provide reference for decision makers and managers.
为此，本发明采取如下技术方案：一种配电网项目融资租赁风险评估方法，其包括以下步骤：To this end, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions: a risk assessment method for distribution network project financing lease, which includes the following steps:
步骤一：根据识别得到的配电网项目融资租赁风险建立评估指标集，包括建设风险、环境风险、市场风险、技术风险和处置风险五个主要指标；按照风险等级的分类标准，将评语分为四个等级，并生成各风险等级的标准云；Step 1: Establish an evaluation index set based on the identified financial leasing risks of distribution network projects, including five main indicators of construction risk, environmental risk, market risk, technical risk and disposal risk; according to the classification standard of risk level, the comments are divided into Four levels, and generate standard clouds for each risk level;
步骤二：对历史数据预处理(即：在获取评估指标的样本值过程中，利用实际数据分析法来分析历史数据并得到评估向量，将得到的风险评估向量无量纲化，并映射到区间[0，8]中)，使用正向云发生器和逆向云发生器生成各风险指标的期望、熵和超熵，得到各风险指标的基本云；Step 2: Preprocessing the historical data (that is, in the process of obtaining the sample value of the evaluation index, use the actual data analysis method to analyze the historical data and obtain the evaluation vector, make the obtained risk evaluation vector dimensionless, and map it to the interval [ 0, 8]), use the forward cloud generator and reverse cloud generator to generate the expectation, entropy and hyper-entropy of each risk index, and get the basic cloud of each risk index;
步骤三：采用修正熵权法确定各风险指标的评估值对综合风险的影响权重，得到权重集；Step 3: Use the modified entropy weight method to determine the impact weight of the evaluation value of each risk index on the comprehensive risk, and obtain the weight set;
由于各风险指标对于项目综合风险的贡献程度不同，因此需要确定各风险指标的权重；Since each risk index contributes differently to the comprehensive risk of the project, it is necessary to determine the weight of each risk index;
步骤四：在基本云及其权重的基础上计算得到综合评估云，根据正向正态云发生器算法并结合MATLAB仿真得到该项目的综合评估云图及各评语集的标准云图；Step 4: Calculate the comprehensive evaluation cloud based on the basic cloud and its weight, and obtain the comprehensive evaluation cloud map of the project and the standard cloud map of each comment set according to the forward normal cloud generator algorithm and combined with MATLAB simulation;
步骤五：分别计算综合评估云与各标准云的相似度，比较其值大小，确定评估结论。Step 5: Calculate the similarity between the comprehensive evaluation cloud and each standard cloud, compare their values, and determine the evaluation conclusion.
在配电网项目融资租赁流程的基础上，根据风险类型，将其风险分为建设风险、环境风险、市场风险、技术风险和处置风险五部分。根据上述指标建立配电网项目融资租赁风险评估指标体系，其中环境风险的二级指标包括自然风险、宏观经济风险、政策风险，市场风险的二级指标包括电价风险和需求风险，技术风险的二级指标包括电量损失风险、系统安全性风险及设备自身风险，本发明使用云模型-修正熵权法组合模型对上述指标体系与项目整体风险之间的关系进行仿真。On the basis of the financial leasing process of distribution network projects, according to the type of risk, the risk is divided into five parts: construction risk, environmental risk, market risk, technical risk and disposal risk. According to the above indicators, a financial leasing risk assessment index system for distribution network projects is established, in which the secondary indicators of environmental risk include natural risk, macroeconomic risk, policy risk, the secondary indicators of market risk include electricity price risk and demand risk, and the secondary indicators of technical risk Level indicators include power loss risk, system security risk, and equipment risk. The present invention uses a cloud model-modified entropy weight method combination model to simulate the relationship between the above indicator system and the overall risk of the project.
本发明首先全面分析识别了配电网项目融资租赁所面临的各项风险，其次，在此基础上构建了基于云模型-修正熵权法的综合评估模型，并将其应用于配电网项目融资租赁风险中，最后得到配电网项目融资租赁的风险等级，为决策者和管理者提供参考。The present invention first comprehensively analyzes and identifies various risks faced by the distribution network project financing lease, and secondly, builds a comprehensive evaluation model based on the cloud model-modified entropy weight method on this basis, and applies it to the distribution network project In the risk of financial leasing, the risk level of financial leasing of distribution network projects is finally obtained, which provides reference for decision makers and managers.
本发明的创造性在于，在全面分析配电网项目采用融资租赁方式进行建设和运维时所面临的各项风险，形成包括建设风险、环境风险、市场风险、技术风险和处置风险的风险指标集。在此基础上，将能够实现定性概念到定量数据之间自由转换的云模型应用于配电网融资租赁项目的风险评估中，并使用修正熵权法来确定各风险指标对综合风险的贡献权重，进而计算得到风险综合评估云，最后通过对比其与标准云的距离，得到项目的综合评估风险等级。The creativity of the present invention lies in the comprehensive analysis of various risks faced by the distribution network project in the construction and operation and maintenance of financing lease, and the formation of a risk index set including construction risk, environmental risk, market risk, technical risk and disposal risk . On this basis, the cloud model that can realize the free conversion between qualitative concepts and quantitative data is applied to the risk assessment of distribution network financing lease projects, and the modified entropy weight method is used to determine the contribution weight of each risk index to the comprehensive risk , and then calculate the risk comprehensive assessment cloud, and finally get the comprehensive assessment risk level of the project by comparing its distance with the standard cloud.
进一步地，所述步骤二的具体内容如下：利用正向云发生器和逆向云发生器分别计算各评估指标的基本云PC＝(Ex,En,He)，其中，期望Ex是论域空间中最能代表定性概念的点，熵En是定性概念不确定性的综合度量，反映了定性概念亦此亦彼性的裕度；超熵He是熵的不确定性的度量，反映云滴的离散程度。Further, the specific content of the step 2 is as follows: use the forward cloud generator and the reverse cloud generator to calculate the basic cloud PC=(Ex, En, He) of each evaluation index respectively, wherein, the expectation Ex is The point that can best represent the qualitative concept, the entropy En is a comprehensive measure of the uncertainty of the qualitative concept, reflecting the margin of the qualitative concept’s one-and-done nature; the hyper-entropy He is the measure of the uncertainty of the entropy, reflecting the discreteness of cloud droplets degree.
进一步地，计算基本云的算法如下：Further, the algorithm for calculating the basic cloud is as follows:
1)计算样本均值一阶样本绝对中心矩样本方差2)3)4)其中，N代表样本个数，xi代表第i个样本值。1) Calculate the sample mean First-order sample absolute central moment sample variance 2) 3) 4) Among them, N represents the number of samples, and xi represents the i-th sample value.
进一步地，所述步骤三的修正熵权法中，各指标的熵为：式中Pij为标准化的指标数据，h为方案数量；各指标无偏权重wj，其计算公式为：权重wj体现了指标的信息量，该权重仅仅是无偏好状态下的信息熵权重；考虑到承租方对配电网项目融资租赁各个风险指标的权重配置上往往存在一定的偏好性，则偏好熵权重系数为：Further, in the modified entropy weight method in the step 3, the entropy of each index is: In the formula, Pij is the standardized index data, h is the number of schemes; the unbiased weight wj of each index, and its calculation formula is: The weight wj reflects the amount of information of the index, which is only the weight of information entropy in the state of no preference; considering that the lessee often has a certain preference in the weight allocation of various risk indicators of distribution network project financing lease, the preference entropy weight coefficient for:
式中，θj表示承租方对第j个风险指标的偏好度。In the formula, θj represents the lessee's preference for the jth risk indicator.
更进一步地，当Pij＝0时，令PijlnPij＝0。Furthermore, when Pij =0, set Pij lnPij =0.
进一步地，所述步骤四中，综合评估云的计算方法如下：Further, in the step four, the calculation method of the comprehensive assessment cloud is as follows:
根据分指标评估基本云PCi＝(Exi,Eni,Hei)，及相应的偏好熵权重系数得到综合评估云TC＝(Ex,En,He)，其中各参数的计算公式为：Evaluate the basic cloud PCi = (Exi , Eni , Hei ) according to sub-indices, and the corresponding preference entropy weight coefficient Get the comprehensive evaluation cloud TC=(Ex, En, He), where the calculation formula of each parameter is:
进一步地，所述步骤五中，将综合评估云中Ex,En,He的权重记为相等，标准云记为SCi＝(Exi,Eni,Hei)，i＝1,2,3,...,n，采用欧式距离法计算综合评估云与标准云的相似度λi，其计算公式为:Further, in the step five, the weights of Ex, En, and He in the comprehensive evaluation cloud are recorded as equal, and the standard cloud is recorded as SCi = (Exi , Eni , Hei ), i=1,2,3 ,...,n, using the Euclidean distance method to calculate the similarity λi between the comprehensive evaluation cloud and the standard cloud, the calculation formula is:
本发明的有益效果在于：The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
(1)本发明是建立在对配电网项目融资租赁风险全面分析的基础上，通过风险指标集可以合理评估风险等级。(1) The present invention is based on a comprehensive analysis of the risk of distribution network project financing lease, and the risk level can be reasonably evaluated through the risk index set.
(2)本发明旨在对配电网项目融资租赁风险做出综合评估，评估方法采用基于云模型-修正熵权法的综合评估模型，有效地地将语言概念的模糊性和随机性结合起来分析，克服了传统概率论和模糊数学对事物认知较为单一的缺陷，并能客观反映各个指标在指标集中的重要程度。(2) The present invention aims to make a comprehensive assessment of the financial leasing risk of the distribution network project. The assessment method adopts a comprehensive assessment model based on the cloud model-modified entropy weight method, which effectively combines the fuzziness and randomness of the language concept Analysis overcomes the defects of traditional probability theory and fuzzy mathematics in cognition of things, and can objectively reflect the importance of each index in the index set.
(3)本发明计算思路简单，计算过程可以通过MATLAB等软件实现，操作方便，可以在最大可能上满足对配电网项目融资租赁风险评估的要求，以便为决策者和管理者提供参考。(3) The calculation idea of the present invention is simple, the calculation process can be realized by software such as MATLAB, the operation is convenient, and the requirements for risk assessment of distribution network project financing leasing can be satisfied to the greatest extent possible, so as to provide reference for decision makers and managers.
附图说明Description of drawings
通过阅读下文优选实施方式的详细描述，各种其他的优点和益处对于本领域普通技术人员将变得清楚明了。附图仅用于示出优选实施方式的目的，而并不认为是对本发明的限制。而且在整个附图中，用相同的参考符号表示相同的部件。其中在附图中，参考数字之后的字母标记指示多个相同的部件，当泛指这些部件时，将省略其最后的字母标记。在附图中：Various other advantages and benefits will become apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art upon reading the following detailed description of the preferred embodiment. The drawings are only for the purpose of illustrating a preferred embodiment and are not to be considered as limiting the invention. Also throughout the drawings, the same reference numerals are used to designate the same parts. Wherein in the drawings, letter marks after reference numerals indicate a plurality of identical components, and when referring to these components generally, the last letter marks thereof will be omitted. In the attached picture:
图1为本发明的流程图；Fig. 1 is a flowchart of the present invention;
图2为本发明配电网项目融资租赁风险评估指标体系；Fig. 2 is the distribution network project financial leasing risk assessment index system of the present invention;
图3为本发明云模型的云及其数字特征图(Ex＝0,En＝1,He＝0.1举例)。Fig. 3 is a cloud and its digital feature map of the cloud model of the present invention (Ex=0, En=1, He=0.1 for example).
具体实施方式detailed description
本发明为一种基于云模型-修正熵权法的配电网项目融资租赁风险评估方法，其步骤如下：The present invention is a distribution network project financial leasing risk assessment method based on the cloud model-modified entropy weight method, and its steps are as follows:
步骤一：确定评估指标集U＝{U1,U2,…,Um}和评语集V＝{V1,V2,…,Vn}，并生成评语集的标准云，设评语i的所在区间为利用正向正态云发生器生成标准云SCi＝(Exi,Eni,Hei)，其中，Eni＝(Exi-Exi-1)/3；当i＝1时，En1＝(Ex2-Ex1)/3；He＝δ。其中δ的取值可以凭经验取但不应过大，一般取0.01。Step 1: Determine the evaluation index set U={U1 , U2 ,…,Um } and the comment set V={V1 ,V2 ,…,Vn }, and generate the standard cloud of the comment set, set the comment i is located in the interval of Use forward normal cloud generator to generate standard cloud SCi =(Exi , Eni ,Hei ), where, Eni =(Exi -Exi-1 )/3; when i=1, En1 =(Ex2 -Ex1 )/3; He=δ. Among them, the value of δ can be selected based on experience but should not be too large, generally 0.01.
步骤二：根据历史数据统计得到评估指标的N个样本值集合为{xi}，i＝1,2,…,N，利用逆向云发生器分别计算各评估指标的基本云PC＝(Ex,En,He)，算法如下：Step 2: According to historical data statistics, the set of N sample values of evaluation indicators is obtained as {xi }, i=1, 2, ..., N, and the basic cloud PC of each evaluation index is calculated by using the reverse cloud generator = (Ex, En,He), the algorithm is as follows:
(1)计算样本均值一阶样本绝对中心矩样本方差(1) Calculate the sample mean First-order sample absolute central moment sample variance
(2)(2)
(3)(3)
(4)(4)
步骤三：利用修正熵权法确定各评估指标的权重集合m为待评估指标的个数。Step 3: Use the modified entropy weight method to determine the weight set of each evaluation index m is the number of indicators to be evaluated.
步骤四：在考虑各指标权重的基础上合成计算综合评估云，根据正向正态云发生器算法并结合MATLAB仿真得到该项目的综合评估云图及各评语集的标准云图，综合评估云生成的算法如下：Step 4: Synthesize and calculate the comprehensive evaluation cloud on the basis of considering the weight of each index, obtain the comprehensive evaluation cloud map of the project and the standard cloud map of each comment set according to the forward normal cloud generator algorithm combined with MATLAB simulation, and comprehensively evaluate the cloud generated by the cloud The algorithm is as follows:
设m个分指标评估基本云为PCi＝(Exi,Eni,Hei)，i＝1,2,…,m，相应的权重分别为则综合评估云TC＝(Ex,En,He)中各参数的计算公式为：Let m sub-index evaluation basic cloud be PCi =(Exi ,Eni ,Hei ), i=1,2,...,m, and the corresponding weights are respectively Then the calculation formula of each parameter in the comprehensive evaluation cloud TC=(Ex, En, He) is:
步骤五：分别计算综合评估云与各标准云的相似度，比较其值大小，确定评估结论，相似度将综合评估云中Ex,En,He的权重记为相等，采用欧式距离法计算综合评估云与标准云的相似度λi，其计算公式为:Step 5: Calculate the similarity between the comprehensive evaluation cloud and each standard cloud respectively, compare their values, and determine the evaluation conclusion. The similarity will record the weights of Ex, En, and He in the comprehensive evaluation cloud as equal, and use the Euclidean distance method to calculate the comprehensive evaluation The similarity λi between the cloud and the standard cloud, its calculation formula is:
其中，Exi,Eni,Hei为标准云SCi＝(Exi,Eni,Hei)中对应数值，i＝1,2,3,...,n。Wherein, Exi , Eni , Hei are the corresponding values in the standard cloud SCi =(Exi , Eni , Hei ), i=1,2,3,...,n.
对上述步骤中的各概念具体解释如下：The specific explanation of each concept in the above steps is as follows:
(1)云的定义及数字特征(1) Definition and digital characteristics of cloud
设U为一个用精确值表示的定量论域，C为U上的定性概念，若定量数值x∈U，且x是定性概念C的一次随机实现，x对C的隶属度u(x)∈[0,1]，是具有稳定倾向的随机数u，即：u:U→[0,1],x→u(x)。则x在论域U上的分布称为云，记为C(x)，每个x称为一个云滴(x,u(x))。Let U be a quantitative domain represented by an exact value, and C be a qualitative concept on U. If the quantitative value x∈U, and x is a random realization of the qualitative concept C, the degree of membership of x to C is u(x)∈ [0,1] is a random number u with a tendency to be stable, namely: u:U→[0,1], x→u(x). Then the distribution of x on the domain of discourse U is called a cloud, denoted as C(x), and each x is called a cloud drop (x,u(x)).
云模型包括期望Ex、熵En和超熵He三个数字特征。其中期望Ex是论域空间中最能代表定性概念的点，熵En是定性概念不确定性的综合度量，反映了定性概念亦此亦彼性的裕度；超熵He是熵的不确定性的度量，反映云滴的离散程度，超熵越大，云滴的厚度和离散度就越大。The cloud model includes three numerical characteristics of expectationEx , entropyEn andhyperentropy He. Among them, the expectation Ex is the point that can best represent the qualitative concept in the discourse space, and the entropyEn is the comprehensive measure of the uncertainty of the qualitative concept, reflecting the margin of the qualitative concept’s one-and-done nature; the hyper-entropy He is the entropy The measure of uncertainty reflects the degree of dispersion of cloud droplets. The greater the hyperentropy, the greater the thickness and dispersion of cloud droplets.
(2)云发生器(2) Cloud Generator
云发生器是用于生成云滴的算法，主要包括正向云发生器和逆向云发生器。正向云发生器将语言值中的定性信息映射到定量的数据范围和分布规律。由于正态分布具有普适性，因此正态云发生器是一种最常用的正向发生器。逆向云发生器是将具有精确数值的样本数据有效转换为通过(Ex,En,Hn)来表现的定性语言值。本发明主要使用正态云发生器，其生成所需数量云滴的过程如下：Cloud generators are algorithms used to generate cloud droplets, mainly including forward cloud generators and reverse cloud generators. Forward cloud generators map qualitative information in linguistic values to quantitative data ranges and distribution laws. Due to the universality of the normal distribution, the normal cloud generator is the most commonly used forward generator. The inverse cloud generator effectively converts sample data with precise numerical values into qualitative language values represented by (Ex , En , Hn ). The present invention mainly uses normal cloud generator, and the process that it generates required quantity cloud droplet is as follows:
a)生成期望为En，标准差为Hn的正态随机数E′n；a) Generate a normal random number E′n whose expectation is En and whose standard deviation is Hn ;
b)生成一个期望为Ex，标准差为|E′n|的正态随机数xi，计算b) Generate a normal random number xi with expectation Ex and standard deviation |E′n |, and calculate
c)循环a)、b)，直到生成n个云滴后停止。c) Repeat a) and b) until n cloud droplets are generated and stop.
(3)修正熵权法(3) Modified entropy weight method
熵权法是一种客观的赋权法，此方法不依靠评价者的经验而是根据各指标所包含的信息量的多少来确定指标的权重。某指标的熵越小，说明该指标值的变异程度越大，提供的信息量也就越多，对综合评价结果的贡献就越大，因此该指标的权重也就越大。熵权法计算步骤简单，充分利用了指标数据的客观规律，排除了主观因素的影响。The entropy weight method is an objective weighting method. This method does not rely on the experience of the evaluator but determines the weight of the index according to the amount of information contained in each index. The smaller the entropy of an index, the greater the variation of the index value, the greater the amount of information provided, and the greater the contribution to the comprehensive evaluation results, so the weight of the index is also greater. The entropy weight method has simple calculation steps, makes full use of the objective laws of the index data, and eliminates the influence of subjective factors.
设由h个评价方案m项指标构成的评价矩阵为X＝(xij)h×m,i＝1,2,…,h；j＝1,2,…,m。指标标准化方法如下：Let the evaluation matrix composed of h evaluation schemes and m indicators be X=(xij )h×m , i=1,2,...,h; j=1,2,...,m. The index standardization method is as follows:
式中Pij为标准化的指标数据。标准化处理有效地消除了指标间的不可公度。各评价指标的熵为：In the formula, Pij is the standardized index data. Standardization effectively eliminates incommensurability among indicators. The entropy of each evaluation index is:
特别地，当Pij＝0时，令PijlnPij＝0。wj为各指标无偏好权重。In particular, when Pij =0, set Pij lnPij =0. wj is the non-preference weight of each indicator.
权重wj体现了指标的信息量，熵权值越大表示该指标对综合评价的贡献越大，直观有效地反映了指标间的差异程度。The weight wj reflects the amount of information of the index, and the larger the entropy weight, the greater the contribution of the index to the comprehensive evaluation, which intuitively and effectively reflects the degree of difference between the indexes.
上式给出的wj仅仅是无偏好状态下的信息熵权重，考虑到承租方对配电网项目融资租赁各个风险指标的权重配置上往往存在一定的偏好性，尤其是对市场风险、环境风险、建设风险等指标存在较大的偏好度，因此这些风险指标对配电网项目融资租赁风险等级的影响相对比较直接，对此，本发明给出偏好信息熵权重，使得配电网项目融资租赁的风险评价结果更具精确性和实用性。The wj given by the above formula is only the weight of information entropy in the state of no preference. Considering that the lessee often has a certain preference in the weight allocation of various risk indicators of distribution network project financing lease, especially for market risk, environment Risk, construction risk and other indicators have a large degree of preference, so the impact of these risk indicators on the risk level of distribution network project financing lease is relatively direct. For this, the present invention gives the weight of preference information entropy, so that the distribution network project financing The risk assessment results of leasing are more accurate and practical.
以θj表示承租方对第j个风险指标的偏好度，则评估样本第j个风险指标的偏好熵权重(以表示)，则偏好熵权重系数为：Let θj represent the lessee’s preference for the jth risk indicator, then evaluate the preference entropy weight of the jth risk indicator in the sample (in the form of ), then the preference entropy weight coefficient is:
应该注意的是，上述实施例对本发明进行说明而不是对本发明进行限制，并且本领域技术人员在不脱离所附权利要求的范围的情况下可设计出替换实施例。在权利要求中，不应将位于括号之间的任何参考符号构造成对权利要求的限制。单词“包含”不排除存在未列在权利要求中的元件或步骤。位于元件之前的单词“一”或“一个”不排除存在多个这样的元件。本发明可以借助于包括有若干不同元件的硬件以及借助于适当编程的计算机来实现。在列举了若干装置的单元权利要求中，这些装置中的若干个可以是通过同一个硬件项来具体体现。单词第一、第二、以及第三等的使用不表示任何顺序。可将这些单词解释为名称。It should be noted that the above-mentioned embodiments illustrate rather than limit the invention, and that those skilled in the art will be able to design alternative embodiments without departing from the scope of the appended claims. In the claims, any reference signs placed between parentheses shall not be construed as limiting the claim. The word "comprising" does not exclude the presence of elements or steps not listed in a claim. The word "a" or "an" preceding an element does not exclude the presence of a plurality of such elements. The invention can be implemented by means of hardware comprising several distinct elements, and by means of a suitably programmed computer. In a unit claim enumerating several means, several of these means can be embodied by one and the same item of hardware. The use of the words first, second, and third, etc. does not indicate any order. These words can be interpreted as names.
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| CN201611099366.4ACN106780117A (en) | 2016-12-02 | 2016-12-02 | A kind of power distribution network project financial leasing methods of risk assessment |
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| CN201611099366.4ACN106780117A (en) | 2016-12-02 | 2016-12-02 | A kind of power distribution network project financial leasing methods of risk assessment |
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| CN106780117Atrue CN106780117A (en) | 2017-05-31 |
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
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| CN201611099366.4APendingCN106780117A (en) | 2016-12-02 | 2016-12-02 | A kind of power distribution network project financial leasing methods of risk assessment |
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| CN (1) | CN106780117A (en) |
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