技术领域technical field
本发明涉及断层油气藏地质勘探与开发技术领域，具体涉及定量表征由于断层作用造成油气盖层渗漏风险的方法。The invention relates to the technical field of geological exploration and development of fault oil and gas reservoirs, in particular to a method for quantitatively characterizing the leakage risk of oil and gas cap rocks caused by fault action.
背景技术Background technique
我国深层油气藏多形成于复杂叠合盆地多期次构造变革和多种过程叠合改造背景下，深层油气封盖条件与中浅层相比会发生明显的变化，由于成岩程度高、物性变低、脆韧性发生转换，造成断层、亚地震断层及裂缝十分发育。亚地震断层是指断距小于地震分辨率的小断层，它们通常既不能从地震数据上识别，又很难从钻井资料上钻遇，利用传统方法很难对其进行识别和预测。虽然亚地震断层的规模小于地震断层，但是其数量和密度远远超过地震断层，它们是控制有效储层形成、油气成藏、注水开发效果、盖层完整性和剩余油分布等的关键因素。亚地震断层的存在可以大大提高致密储层的渗透率，改善储层渗透性能，甚至可以为储层提供有效的储集空间，成为裂缝性储集层。而如果大量亚地震断层发育于盖层，则它们破坏了盖层完整性，从而造成油气漏失。有时，即使很小规模的破裂作用也能导致巨大的渗漏速率。例如，在北海某油田，一个盖层中发育亚地震断层的圈闭，亚地震断层（及裂缝）的渗透率相对很低，仅为0.05md，但是其油气泄漏体积超过1000亿桶/百万年。又如加利福尼亚圣塔莫尼卡湾Palos Verde断层以10-15桶/天，或超过50亿桶/百万年的速率渗出石油。因此，能够准确表征这种由于断层作用带来的油气盖层渗漏风险，对降低油气勘探风险和提高钻探成功率具有重要的指导作用。Deep oil and gas reservoirs in my country are mostly formed in complex superimposed basins under the background of multi-stage structural changes and superimposed transformation of various processes. Compared with the middle and shallow layers, the sealing conditions of deep oil and gas will change significantly. Low, brittle-ductile transformation occurs, causing faults, subseismic faults and cracks to be very developed. Subseismic faults refer to small faults whose fault throw is smaller than the seismic resolution. They are usually neither identified from seismic data nor drilled from drilling data. It is difficult to identify and predict them using traditional methods. Although the scale of subseismic faults is smaller than that of seismic faults, their number and density are far greater than those of seismic faults. They are the key factors controlling the formation of effective reservoirs, hydrocarbon accumulation, water injection development effect, cap rock integrity and remaining oil distribution. The existence of subseismic faults can greatly increase the permeability of tight reservoirs, improve reservoir permeability, and even provide effective storage space for reservoirs, becoming fractured reservoirs. However, if a large number of subseismic faults are developed in the caprock, they will destroy the integrity of the caprock, thus causing oil and gas leakage. Occasionally, even small-scale ruptures can result in enormous leakage rates. For example, in an oilfield in the North Sea, a subseismic fault trap is developed in a caprock, and the permeability of the subseismic fault (and fracture) is relatively low, only 0.05md, but its oil and gas leakage volume exceeds 100 billion barrels per million year. Another example is the Palos Verde fault in Santa Monica Bay, California, seeping oil at a rate of 10-15 barrels per day, or more than 5 billion barrels per million years. Therefore, being able to accurately characterize the leakage risk of oil and gas cap rocks caused by faulting plays an important guiding role in reducing the risk of oil and gas exploration and improving the success rate of drilling.
前人曾提出了利用增量应变分析技术评价盖层完整性的方法，即利用地震资料构造解释，利用平衡剖面技术分析每一地质时期的应变量，建立目的层曾经历的应变与盖层完整性之间的经验关系，确定经验应变阈值，简单的判断盖层是否存在渗漏风向，认为当目的层经历的应变大于经验应变阈值时，圈闭就被破坏，小于经验应变阈值时，盖层就能起到封闭作用，其优点是提供了一种利用地震数据进行勘探前景评价的简便方法，但是该方法没有考虑盖层本身的特征，不同的盖层岩性组合特征具有的封盖能力是不同的。另外，该方法中经验应变阈值的确定，需要利用大量的钻探实例，也就是说该方法并不能指导钻前探勘。The predecessors have proposed a method to evaluate the integrity of cap rocks using incremental strain analysis technology, that is, using seismic data structure interpretation, using balanced section technology to analyze the strain in each geological period, and establishing the relationship between the strain experienced by the target layer and the integrity of cap rocks. According to the empirical relationship between property and property, determine the empirical strain threshold, and simply judge whether there is a seepage wind direction in the caprock. It is considered that when the strain experienced by the target layer is greater than the empirical strain threshold, the trap will be destroyed, and when it is less than the empirical strain threshold, the caprock will be destroyed. It has the advantage of providing a simple method for evaluating exploration prospects using seismic data, but this method does not consider the characteristics of the caprock itself, and the sealing ability of different caprock lithology combinations is different. In addition, the determination of the empirical strain threshold in this method requires the use of a large number of drilling examples, which means that this method cannot guide pre-drilling exploration.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明的目的是提供定量表征由于断层作用造成油气盖层渗漏风险的方法，这种定量表征由于断层作用造成油气盖层渗漏风险的方法用于解决目前不能够准确表征由于断层作用带来的油气盖层渗漏风险的问题。The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for quantitatively characterizing the risk of leakage of oil and gas caprocks due to faulting. This method for quantitatively characterizing the risk of oil and gas caprock leakage due to faulting is used to solve the current problem of not being able to accurately characterize the risk of oil and gas caprock leakage due to faulting. oil and gas caprock seepage risk.
本发明解决其技术问题所采用的技术方案是：这种定量表征由于断层作用造成油气盖层渗漏风险的方法包括如下步骤：The technical solution adopted by the present invention to solve the technical problem is: the method for quantitatively characterizing the leakage risk of the oil and gas caprock due to fault action includes the following steps:
a. 盖层和断层结构模型的建立：利用研究区岩心、成像测井以及常规测井资料，对包括砂岩和泥岩在内的目的层岩性特征进行解释，确定每一层泥岩和砂岩的厚度及盖层总厚度，建立盖层和断层结构模型，模型特征为：盖层由厚层泥岩夹薄层砂岩组成；泥岩层具有很好的封闭能力，且各层泥岩具有相似的厚度，薄层砂岩具有较好的横向和垂向连通性，以造成油气的运移；断层随机分布在盖层中，如果断层断距大于泥岩层的厚度，则使相邻的砂岩层发生对接，而造成油气渗漏，如果每一套泥岩层都被断层错断，则整个盖层发生渗漏；a. Establishment of cap rock and fault structure model: using the core, image logging and conventional logging data in the study area, to interpret the lithological characteristics of the target layer including sandstone and mudstone, and to determine the thickness of each layer of mudstone and sandstone and the total thickness of the caprock, the caprock and fault structure model is established, and the model features are: The cap rock is composed of thick mudstone interbedded with thin sandstone; The mudstone layer has good sealing ability, and the mudstone in each layer has similar thickness, and the thin sandstone has good horizontal and vertical connectivity, so as to cause oil and gas migration; Faults are randomly distributed in the caprock. If the fault throw is greater than the thickness of the mudstone layer, the adjacent sandstone layers will be docked, resulting in oil and gas leakage. If each set of mudstone layers is dislocated by faults, the entire caprock will leakage occurs;
b. 建立盖层渗漏风险模型图版：根据盖层中泥岩层数量和断层数量之间的排列组合关系，利用蒙特卡洛方法建立盖层渗漏风险模型图版，利用该图版，对任意泥岩层数和断层数量的组合的渗漏概率进行查询；b. Establish a cap rock seepage risk model chart: According to the permutation and combination relationship between the number of mudstone layers and the number of faults in the cap rock, use the Monte Carlo method to establish a cap rock seepage risk model chart, using this chart, for any mudstone layer Query the leakage probability of the combination of number and fault number;
c. 计算有效泥岩层数：根据步骤a中解释的每一层泥岩和砂岩的厚度及盖层总厚度，计算有效泥岩层数，有效泥岩层数等于盖层总厚度除以最厚层泥岩厚度；c. Calculate the number of effective mudstone layers: Calculate the effective number of mudstone layers according to the thickness of each layer of mudstone and sandstone and the total thickness of the caprock explained in step a. The effective number of mudstone layers is equal to the total thickness of the caprock divided by the thickness of the thickest layer of mudstone ;
d. 计算使相邻渗漏层对接所需的最小断距Tmin，计算公式如下：d. Calculate the minimum distance Tmin required to connect adjacent seepage layers, the calculation formula is as follows:
Tmin=（1+α）t，Tmin = (1+α)t,
， ,
式中，t为最厚层泥岩厚度；AR为断层高度和长度比值；L/T为断层长度和最大断距比值，一般为100左右；In the formula, t is the thickness of the thickest mudstone layer; AR is the ratio of fault height to length; L/T is the ratio of fault length to maximum fault throw, which is generally about 100;
e. 断距大于Tmin的断层数量的预测：利用分形理论对断距大于Tmin的断层数量进行预测，具体预测方法是：利用三维地震资料，对研究区每一条地震资料上识别的断层几何学特征进行精细解释，断层几何学特征包括产状、长度、高度、断距，建立断层长度-累积频数关系图，并根据断层长度和断层最大断距关系，在双对数坐标中，建立断距-累积频数关系图，然后拟合出断层最大断距和累积频数之间的关系式，带入Tmin，求出断距大于Tmin的断层数量的预测；e. Prediction of the number of faults with a fault throw greater than Tmin : use fractal theory to predict the number of faults with a fault throw greater than Tmin . The geometric characteristics of faults include occurrence, length, height, and fault throw, and the fault length-cumulative frequency relationship diagram is established. According to the relationship between the fault length and the fault maximum fault throw, in double-logarithmic coordinates, the fault Then, fit the relational expression between the maximum fault distance and cumulative frequency of the fault, and put it into Tmin to obtain the prediction of the number of faults whose fault distance is greater than Tmin ;
f. 建立研究区渗漏概率模型并判断渗漏风险：根据步骤d中确定的使相邻渗漏层对接所需的最小断距Tmin、步骤e中计算的有效泥岩层数以及步骤b中建立的盖层渗漏风险模型，建立研究区渗漏概率模型并判断渗漏风险。f. Establish a leakage probability model in the study area and judge the leakage risk: according to the minimum fault distance Tmin required to connect adjacent seepage layers determined in step d, the number of effective mudstone layers calculated in step e, and the number of effective mudstone layers in step b. The established cap rock seepage risk model, establishes the seepage probability model of the study area and judges the seepage risk.
上述方案步骤b中利用蒙特卡洛方法建立盖层渗漏风险模型图版，具体实施方法为：假设有2套泥岩层，当有1条断层时，盖层渗漏概率为0%；In step b of the above scheme, the Monte Carlo method is used to establish the cap rock seepage risk model chart. The specific implementation method is as follows: assuming that there are two sets of mudstone layers, when there is one fault, the cap rock seepage probability is 0%;
当有2条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N2-2，则2套泥岩层和2条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N2-2/100；When there are two faults, the Monte Carlo random simulation method is used to randomly distribute the faults in the caprock. When there are faults distributed in each set of mudstone layers, the caprock leaks and counts as 1. When there is only one set of faults When the formation does not contain faults, the count is 0, and the simulation is performed 100 times, and the total number of seepage occurrences N2-2 of the caprock is counted, then the seepage probability when 2 sets of mudstone layers and 2 faults exist is N2-2 /100 ;
当有3条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N2-3，则2套泥岩层和3条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N2-3/100；依次模拟有4、5、6……条断层时的渗漏概率；然后假设有3套泥岩层，当有1条或2条断层时，盖层渗漏概率为0%，当有3条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N3-3，则3套泥岩层和3条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N3-3/100；When there are 3 faults, the Monte Carlo random simulation method is used to randomly distribute the faults in the caprock. When there are faults distributed in each set of mudstone layers, the caprock leaks and counts as 1. When there is only one set of When the formation does not contain faults, the count is 0, and the simulation is performed 100 times, and the total number of seepage occurrences N2-3 of the caprock is counted, then the seepage probability when 2 sets of mudstone layers and 3 faults exist is N2-3 /100 ; Sequentially simulate the leakage probability when there are 4, 5, 6... faults; then assume that there are 3 sets of mudstone layers, when there are 1 or 2 faults, the leakage probability of the caprock is 0%, when there are 3 For faults, the Monte Carlo random simulation method is used to randomly distribute the faults in the caprock. When there are faults distributed in each set of mudstone layers, the caprock leaks, and the count is 1. When there is only one set of strata that does not contain In the case of faults, the count is 0, 100 simulations, and the total number of times N3-3 seepage occurs in the caprock is counted, then the seepage probability when 3 sets of mudstone layers and 3 faults exist is N3-3 /100;
当有4条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N3-4，则3套泥岩层和4条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N3-4/100；When there are 4 faults, the Monte Carlo random simulation method is used to randomly distribute the faults in the caprock. When there are faults distributed in each set of mudstone layers, the caprock leaks and counts as 1. When there is only one set of When there are no faults in the formation, the count is 0, and the simulation is performed 100 times, and the total number of times N3-4 of cap rock seepage is counted, then the seepage probability when 3 sets of mudstone layers and 4 faults exist is N3-4 /100 ;
依次模拟有5、6、7……条断层时的渗漏概率。依次模拟有4、5、6……套泥岩层时的渗漏概率。最后在泥岩层数量-断层数量图中，分别将渗漏概率分别为10%、20%、……、80%、90%的线连起来，即完成盖层渗漏风险模型图版。Sequentially simulate the leakage probability when there are 5, 6, 7... faults. Simulate the leakage probability when there are 4, 5, 6... sets of mudstone layers in sequence. Finally, in the number of mudstone layers-number of faults diagram, connect the lines with leakage probabilities of 10%, 20%, ..., 80%, and 90% to complete the caprock leakage risk model chart.
上述方案中步骤f中建立研究区渗漏概率模型并判断渗漏风险的具体实施方法为：根据步骤d确定的“最小断距”Tmin，在步骤e建立的断距-累积频数关系图的横坐标找到该断距；根据步骤c中计算的有效泥岩层数，在步骤b建立的盖层渗漏风险模型图版中，分别查出渗透概率为10%、20%、……、80%、90%时，对应的断层数量；然后分别在步骤e建立的断距-累积频数关系图中标出这些点，断距-累积频数关系图中横坐标为Tmin；然后以步骤e中建立的断层最大断距和累积频数之间的关系式的斜率，过这些点，绘出表征不同渗漏概率的参考线，即建立了研究区渗漏概率模型，通过对比实际数据与渗漏概率模型确定研究区盖层渗漏概率。In step f of the above scheme, the specific implementation method for establishing the leakage probability model of the study area and judging the leakage risk is as follows: according to the "minimum fault distance" Tmin determined in step d, the fault distance-cumulative frequency relationship diagram established in step e The fault distance is found on the abscissa; according to the number of effective mudstone layers calculated in step c, in the cap rock seepage risk model chart established in step b, the seepage probability is found to be 10%, 20%, ..., 80%, 90%, the corresponding fault quantity; then mark these points in the fault distance-cumulative frequency relationship diagram established in step e respectively, and the abscissa in the fault distance-cumulative frequency relationship diagram isTmin ; then use the fault distance established in step e The slope of the relationship between the maximum fault distance and the cumulative frequency, through these points, draw the reference line representing different leakage probabilities, that is, establish the leakage probability model of the research area, and determine the research area by comparing the actual data with the leakage probability model. Probability of seepage in the caprock.
本发明具有以下有益效果：The present invention has the following beneficial effects:
1、本发明目的在于通过建立盖层和断层结构模型、绘制盖层渗漏风险模型图版、计算有效泥岩层数、计算使相邻渗漏层对接所需的最小断距Tmin、断距大于Tmin的断层数量的预测、建立研究区渗漏概率模型并判断渗漏风险，本发明综合考虑了盖层本身的特征，以及不同的盖层岩性组合特征封盖能力不同的特点，判断渗漏风险的准确性高，有效性好。1. The purpose of the present invention is to establish caprock and fault structure models, draw caprock seepage risk model charts, calculate the number of effective mudstone layers, and calculate the minimum fault distance Tmin required for the docking of adjacent seepage layers, and the fault distance is greater than To predict the number of faults at Tmin , establish a leakage probability model in the study area, and judge the risk of leakage. The risk of leakage has high accuracy and good effectiveness.
2、本发明可以在钻前定量计算由于断层作用造成油气盖层渗漏风险概率，从而降低钻探风险，提高钻探成功率，对指导油气田的勘探开发具有重大意义。2. The invention can quantitatively calculate the risk probability of oil and gas caprock leakage due to fault action before drilling, thereby reducing drilling risks and improving the success rate of drilling, which is of great significance for guiding the exploration and development of oil and gas fields.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1为本发明保密实验案例中盖层和断层结构模型；Fig. 1 is cap rock and fault structure model in the secret experiment case of the present invention;
图2为本发明保密实验案例中盖层渗漏风险模型图版；Fig. 2 is the caprock seepage risk model chart plate in the confidential experiment case of the present invention;
图3为本发明保密实验案例中断层长度-累积频数关系图；Fig. 3 is the relationship diagram of fault layer length-cumulative frequency in the case of secrecy experiment of the present invention;
图4为本发明保密实验案例中断层长度和断层最大断距关系；Fig. 4 is the relationship between the length of the fault and the maximum fault distance of the fault in the confidential experiment case of the present invention;
图5为本发明保密实验案例中断距-累积频数关系图；Fig. 5 is the interval-cumulative frequency relation diagram of the confidential experiment case of the present invention;
图6为本发明保密实验案例中研究区渗漏概率模型；Fig. 6 is the leakage probability model of the study area in the confidential experiment case of the present invention;
图7为本发明保密实验案例中应用实例模型验证及未钻探区预测。Fig. 7 is the application example model verification and undrilled area prediction in the confidential experiment case of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面结合附图对本发明作进一步的说明：Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention will be further described:
这种定量表征由于断层作用造成油气盖层渗漏风险的方法包括如下步骤：This method of quantitatively characterizing the seepage risk of oil and gas cap rocks due to faulting includes the following steps:
a. 盖层和断层结构模型的建立：利用岩心、成像测井以及常规测井等资料，对目的层岩性（砂岩和泥岩）特征进行解释，确定每一层泥岩和砂岩的厚度及盖层总厚度，建立盖层和断层结构模型，模型特征为：盖层由厚层泥岩夹薄层砂岩组成；泥岩层具有很好的封闭能力，且各层泥岩具有相似的厚度，薄层砂岩具有较好的横向和垂向连通性可以造成油气的运移；断层随机分布在盖层中，如果断层断距大于泥岩层的厚度，则可以使相邻的砂岩层发生对接，而造成油气渗漏，如果每一套泥岩层都被断层错断，则整个盖层发生渗漏；a. Establishment of cap rock and fault structure model: use core, imaging logging and conventional logging data to interpret the lithology (sandstone and mudstone) characteristics of the target layer, and determine the thickness of each layer of mudstone and sandstone and the cap rock The total thickness is used to establish caprock and fault structure models, and the model features are: The cap rock is composed of thick mudstone interbedded with thin sandstone; The mudstone layer has good sealing ability, and each layer of mudstone has a similar thickness, and the thin sandstone has good lateral and vertical connectivity, which can cause oil and gas migration; Faults are randomly distributed in the caprock. If the fault throw is greater than the thickness of the mudstone layer, adjacent sandstone layers can be docked, resulting in oil and gas leakage. If each set of mudstone layers is dislocated by faults, the entire caprock Layer leaks;
b. 建立盖层渗漏风险模型图版：根据盖层中泥岩层数量和断层数量之间的排列组合关系，利用蒙特卡洛方法建立盖层渗漏风险模型图版，具体实施方法为：假设有2套泥岩层，当有1条断层时，盖层渗漏概率为0%，当有2条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N2-2，则2套泥岩层和2条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N2-2/100；当有3条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N2-3，则2套泥岩层和3条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N2-3/100；依次模拟有4、5、6……条断层时的渗漏概率。然后假设有3套泥岩层，当有1条或2条断层时，盖层渗漏概率为0%，当有3条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N3-3，则3套泥岩层和3条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N3-3/100；当有4条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N3-4，则3套泥岩层和4条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N3-4/100；依次模拟有5、6、7……条断层时的渗漏概率。依次模拟有4、5、6……套泥岩层时的渗漏概率。最后在泥岩层数量-断层数量图中，分别将渗漏概率分别为10%、20%、……、80%、90%的线连起来，即完成盖层渗漏风险模型图版。b. Establish the cap rock seepage risk model chart: according to the permutation and combination relationship between the number of mudstone layers and the number of faults in the cap rock, use the Monte Carlo method to establish the cap rock seepage risk model chart. The specific implementation method is as follows: Assume that there are 2 For a set of mudstone layers, when there is one fault, the leakage probability of the caprock is 0%. When there are two faults, the Monte Carlo random simulation method is used to distribute the faults randomly in the caprock. When there are faults distributed in all strata, the cap rock leaks, count as 1, when there is only one set of strata that does not contain faults, count as 0, simulate 100 times, count the total number of cap rock seepage N2-2 , then 2 When a set of mudstone layers and 2 faults exist, the leakage probability is N2-2 /100; when there are 3 faults, the Monte Carlo random simulation method is used to distribute the faults randomly in the caprock. When each set of mudstone When there are faults distributed in all strata, the caprock leaks, and the count is 1. When there is only one set of strata that does not contain faults, the count is 0. After 100 simulations, the total number of caprock seepage N2-3 is counted, then The leakage probability when there are 2 sets of mudstone layers and 3 faults is N2-3 /100; the leakage probability is simulated sequentially when there are 4, 5, 6... faults. Then assume that there are 3 sets of mudstone layers. When there are 1 or 2 faults, the leakage probability of the caprock is 0%. When there are 3 faults, the Monte Carlo random simulation method is used to randomly distribute the faults in the caprock. , when there are faults distributed in each set of mudstone layers, the caprock leaks, count 1, when there is only one set of strata that does not contain faults, the count is 0, simulate 100 times, and count the total number of caprock seepage N3-3 , then the leakage probability when there are 3 sets of mudstone layers and 3 faults is N3-3 /100; when there are 4 faults, use the Monte Carlo random simulation method to let the faults randomly distribution, when there are faults distributed in each set of mudstone layers, the caprock leaks, count 1, when only one set of strata does not contain faults, the count is 0, simulate 100 times, and count the total caprock seepage The number of times is N3-4 , then the leakage probability when 3 sets of mudstone layers and 4 faults exist is N3-4 /100; the leakage probability when there are 5, 6, 7... faults is simulated in turn. Simulate the leakage probability when there are 4, 5, 6... sets of mudstone layers in sequence. Finally, in the number of mudstone layers-number of faults diagram, connect the lines with leakage probabilities of 10%, 20%, ..., 80%, and 90% to complete the caprock leakage risk model chart.
c. 计算有效泥岩层数：根据步骤a中解释的每一层泥岩和砂岩的厚度及盖层总厚度，计算有效泥岩层数，有效泥岩层数等于盖层总厚度除以最厚层泥岩厚度；c. Calculate the number of effective mudstone layers: Calculate the effective number of mudstone layers according to the thickness of each layer of mudstone and sandstone and the total thickness of the caprock explained in step a. The effective number of mudstone layers is equal to the total thickness of the caprock divided by the thickness of the thickest layer of mudstone ;
d. 计算使相邻渗漏层对接所需的最小断距Tmin，计算公式如下：d. Calculate the minimum distance Tmin required to connect adjacent seepage layers, the calculation formula is as follows:
Tmin=（1+α）t，Tmin = (1+α)t,
， ,
式中，t为最厚层泥岩厚度；AR为断层高度和长度比值；L/T为断层长度和最大断距比值，一般为100左右。In the formula, t is the thickness of the thickest mudstone layer; AR is the ratio of fault height to length; L/T is the ratio of fault length to maximum fault throw, which is generally about 100.
e. 断距大于Tmin的断层数量的预测：由于根据步骤d计算得到的Tmin往往小于地震资料上识别的断层的断距，因此，不能根据地震资料直接确定断距大于Tmin的断层数量，因此需要利用分形理论对断距大于Tmin的断层数量的进行预测，具体预测方法是：利用三维地震资料，对研究区每一条地震资料上可以识别的断层几何学特征（产状、长度、高度和断距）进行精细解释，建立断层长度-累积频数关系图，并根据断层长度和断层最大断距关系，在双对数坐标中，建立断距-累积频数关系图，然后拟合出断层最大断距和累积频数之间的关系式，带入Tmin，即可求出断距大于Tmin的断层数量的预测；e. Prediction of the number of faults with a fault throw greater than Tmin : since the Tmin calculated according to step d is often smaller than the fault throw of the fault identified on the seismic data, the number of faults with a fault throw greater than Tmin cannot be directly determined according to the seismic data , so it is necessary to use fractal theory to predict the number of faults with a fault throw greater than Tmin . The specific prediction method is: use 3D seismic data to analyze the fault geometry characteristics (occurrence, length, Height and fault distance) for detailed interpretation, establish the fault length-cumulative frequency relationship diagram, and according to the fault length and fault maximum fault distance relationship, in the log-logarithmic coordinates, establish the fault distance-cumulative frequency relationship diagram, and then fit the fault The relationship between the maximum fault throw and the cumulative frequency is brought into Tmin to obtain the prediction of the number of faults with a fault throw greater than Tmin ;
f. 建立研究区渗漏概率模型并判断渗漏风险：根据步骤d中确定的使相邻渗漏层对接所需的最小断距Tmin、步骤e中计算的有效泥岩层数以及步骤b中建立的盖层渗漏风险模型，建立研究区渗漏概率模型并判断渗漏风险，具体实施方法为：根据步骤d确定的“最小断距”Tmin，在步骤e建立的断距-累积频数关系图的横坐标找到该断距；根据步骤c中计算的有效泥岩层数，在步骤b建立的盖层渗漏风险模型图版中，分别查出渗透概率为10%、20%、……、80%、90%时，对应的断层数量；然后分别在步骤e建立的断距-累积频数关系图中标出这些点（横坐标为Tmin）；然后以步骤e中建立的断层最大断距和累积频数之间的关系式的斜率，过这些点，绘出表征不同渗漏概率的参考线，即建立了研究区渗漏概率模型，通过对比实际数据与渗漏概率模型即可确定研究区盖层渗漏概率。f. Establish a leakage probability model in the study area and judge the leakage risk: according to the minimum fault distance Tmin required to connect adjacent seepage layers determined in step d, the number of effective mudstone layers calculated in step e, and the number of effective mudstone layers in step b. The established cap rock seepage risk model, establishes the seepage probability model of the study area and judges the seepage risk. The specific implementation method is: according to the "minimum fault distance" Tmin determined in step d, the fault distance-cumulative frequency established in step e The abscissa of the relationship diagram is used to find the fault throw; according to the number of effective mudstone layers calculated in step c, the seepage probability of 10%, 20%, ..., 80% and 90%, the corresponding number of faults; then mark these points in the fault distance-cumulative frequency relationship diagram established in step e respectively (the abscissa is Tmin ); then use the maximum fault distance and The slope of the relational expression between the cumulative frequencies, through these points, draw the reference line representing different leakage probabilities, that is, the leakage probability model of the research area is established, and the cover of the research area can be determined by comparing the actual data with the leakage probability model. Layer leakage probability.
采用本发明进行保密性实验，在实际断层型油气藏钻前利用本发明进行盖层渗漏风险评价，预测结果也得到了钻探证实。具体保密性实验如下：The invention is used to carry out confidentiality experiments, and the invention is used to evaluate the seepage risk of cap rocks before drilling in actual fault-type oil and gas reservoirs, and the prediction results are also verified by drilling. The specific confidentiality experiments are as follows:
保密实验的案例为“准噶尔盆地南缘齐古油田盖层完整性评价”。案例涉及的油田位于准噶尔盆地南缘冲断带第一排冲断-褶皱带上，由于喜马拉雅运动期大规模挤压抬升，背斜遭到剥蚀，核部出露侏罗系头屯河组和齐古组，与其他相邻区块相比，钻探层位较老。区内深探井齐8井和齐9井自上而下钻遇地层依次为侏罗系西山窑组、三工河组和八道湾组，三叠系郝家沟组、黄山街组和克拉玛依组、上仓房沟群及二叠系下仓房沟群。其中克拉玛依组储集层及油层较为发育。齐古地区地面条件复杂，缺乏三维地震资料，深层构造成像困难，但是通过二维地震测线分析，该区构造轮廓已经较为清晰，圈闭也较为落实，且圈闭面积较大。前人对准噶尔盆地烃源岩和储层进行了大量研究，发现南缘齐古地区烃源岩和储层较为丰富。由于齐古地区后期经历的强烈的构造运动，盖层中发育大量断层，因此盖层油气保存条件成为油气成藏的关键，为此，利用“定量表征由于断层作用造成油气盖层渗漏风险的新技术”对齐古油田的3个圈闭进行了盖层渗漏风险评价，并用已有钻探成果进行验证，并对其它5个圈闭盖层渗漏风险进行评价。The case of the confidential experiment is "Integrity Evaluation of Qigu Oilfield Caprock in the Southern Margin of Junggar Basin". The oilfield involved in the case is located on the first row of thrust-fold belts in the thrust belt at the southern margin of the Junggar Basin. Due to the large-scale compression and uplift during the Himalayan movement, the anticline was eroded, and the core exposed the Jurassic Toutunhe Formation and The Qigu Formation, compared with other adjacent blocks, has older drilling horizons. The deep exploration wells Qi 8 and Qi 9 in the area drilled from top to bottom are the Jurassic Xishanyao Formation, Sangonghe Formation and Badaowan Formation, the Triassic Haojiagou Formation, Huangshanjie Formation and Karamay Formation , Shangcangfanggou Group and Permian Xiacangfanggou Group. Among them, Karamay Formation reservoirs and oil layers are more developed. The ground conditions in the Qigu area are complex, there is a lack of 3D seismic data, and it is difficult to image deep structures. However, through the analysis of 2D seismic lines, the structural outline of this area is relatively clear, and the traps are relatively well established, and the trap area is relatively large. Predecessors have conducted a lot of research on the source rocks and reservoirs in the Junggar Basin, and found that the source rocks and reservoirs in the Qigu area on the southern margin are relatively rich. Due to the strong tectonic movement experienced in the late Qiguo area, a large number of faults were developed in the caprock, so the oil and gas preservation conditions in the caprock became the key to oil and gas accumulation. "New Technology" assessed the seepage risk of cap rocks in 3 traps in Qigu Oilfield, verified it with the existing drilling results, and evaluated the seepage risk of cap rocks in the other 5 traps.
实验的基本条件：Basic conditions of the experiment:
（1）研究区具有较好的三维地震资料、岩心资料以及前期钻探成果资料，为本方法研究提供了全面的基础数据。(1) The study area has relatively good 3D seismic data, core data and previous drilling results, which provide comprehensive basic data for the research of this method.
（2）东北石油大学“断裂控藏”实验室具有Resform软件、Landmark软件、Forward软件，为本方法提供了各种实验和软件支持。(2) The "Fault Control and Reservoir Control" Laboratory of Northeast Petroleum University has Resform software, Landmark software, and Forward software, which provide various experiments and software support for this method.
实验过程：experiment procedure:
（1）盖层和断层结构模型的建立(1) Establishment of caprock and fault structure models
利用岩心、成像测井以及常规测井等资料，对盖层岩性（砂岩和泥岩）特征进行了解释，盖层中共发育10套泥岩层和9套砂岩层（图1），盖层总厚度为80m，泥岩层厚度主要分布在5-8m，最厚为8m，砂岩层厚度主要分布在家1-2m。The lithology (sandstone and mudstone) characteristics of the caprock were interpreted by using data such as core, image logging, and conventional logging. There are 10 sets of mudstone layers and 9 sets of sandstone layers in the caprock (Fig. 1), and the total thickness of the caprock is The thickness of the mudstone layer is mainly distributed at 5-8m, the thickest is 8m, and the thickness of the sandstone layer is mainly distributed at 1-2m.
（2）建立盖层渗漏风险模型图版(2) Establishment of cap rock seepage risk model chart
根据盖层中泥岩层数量和断层数量之间的排列组合关系，利用蒙特卡洛方法建立了盖层渗漏风险模型图版（图2）。具体实施方法为：假设有2套泥岩层，当有1条断层时，盖层渗漏概率为0%，当有2条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N2-2，则2套泥岩层和2条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N2-2/100；当有3条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N2-3，则2套泥岩层和3条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N2-3/100；依次模拟有4、5、6……条断层时的渗漏概率。然后假设有3套泥岩层，当有1条或2条断层时，盖层渗漏概率为0%，当有3条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N3-3，则3套泥岩层和3条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N3-3/100；当有4条断层时，利用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法，让断层在盖层中随机分布，当每一套泥岩层中均有断层分布时，盖层发生渗漏，计数1，当只要有一套地层中不含有断层时，计数为0，模拟100次，统计盖层发生渗透的总次数N3-4，则3套泥岩层和4条断层存在时的渗漏概率为N3-4/100；依次模拟有5、6、7……条断层时的渗漏概率。依次模拟有4、5、6……套泥岩层时的渗漏概率。最后在泥岩层数量-断层数量图中，分别将渗漏概率分别为10%、20%、……、80%、90%的线连起来，即完成盖层渗漏风险模型图版。According to the permutation and combination relationship between the number of mudstone layers and the number of faults in the caprock, the Monte Carlo method was used to establish the chart of the caprock seepage risk model (Fig. 2). The specific implementation method is as follows: assuming that there are two sets of mudstone layers, when there is one fault, the leakage probability of the cap rock is 0%, and when there are two faults, the Monte Carlo random simulation method is used to make the faults in the cap rock randomly distribution, when there are faults distributed in each set of mudstone layers, the caprock leaks, count 1, when only one set of strata does not contain faults, the count is 0, simulate 100 times, and count the total caprock seepage times N2-2 , then the leakage probability when there are 2 sets of mudstone layers and 2 faults is N2-2 /100; when there are 3 faults, use the Monte Carlo random simulation method to make the faults in the caprock Randomly distributed, when there are faults distributed in each set of mudstone layers, the caprock leaks, count 1, when only one set of strata does not contain faults, the count is 0, simulate 100 times, and count the caprock seepage The total number of times is N2-3 , then the leakage probability when there are 2 sets of mudstone layers and 3 faults is N2-3 /100; the leakage probability when there are 4, 5, 6... faults is simulated in turn. Then assume that there are 3 sets of mudstone layers. When there are 1 or 2 faults, the leakage probability of the caprock is 0%. When there are 3 faults, the Monte Carlo random simulation method is used to randomly distribute the faults in the caprock. , when there are faults distributed in each set of mudstone layers, the caprock leaks, count 1, when there is only one set of strata that does not contain faults, the count is 0, simulate 100 times, and count the total number of caprock seepage N3-3 , then the leakage probability when there are 3 sets of mudstone layers and 3 faults is N3-3 /100; when there are 4 faults, use the Monte Carlo random simulation method to let the faults randomly distribution, when there are faults distributed in each set of mudstone layers, the caprock leaks, count 1, when only one set of strata does not contain faults, the count is 0, simulate 100 times, and count the total caprock seepage The number of times is N3-4 , then the leakage probability when 3 sets of mudstone layers and 4 faults exist is N3-4 /100; the leakage probability when there are 5, 6, 7... faults is simulated in turn. Simulate the leakage probability when there are 4, 5, 6... sets of mudstone layers in sequence. Finally, in the number of mudstone layers-number of faults diagram, connect the lines with leakage probabilities of 10%, 20%, ..., 80%, and 90% to complete the caprock leakage risk model chart.
（3）计算有效泥岩层数(3) Calculation of effective mudstone layers
根据步骤a中解释的每一层泥岩和砂岩的厚度及盖层总厚度，计算有效泥岩层数，有效泥岩层数等于盖层总厚度（80m）除以最厚层泥岩厚度（8m），为10层。According to the thickness of each layer of mudstone and sandstone and the total thickness of the caprock explained in step a, the effective number of mudstone layers is calculated. The effective number of mudstone layers is equal to the total thickness of the caprock (80m) divided by the thickness of the thickest layer of mudstone (8m), as 10 floors.
（4）计算使相邻渗漏层对接所需的最小断距Tmin：(4) Calculate the minimum distance Tmin required to connect adjacent seepage layers:
计算公式如下：Calculated as follows:
Tmin=（1+α）×t=（1+0.25）×8=10mTmin =(1+α)×t=(1+0.25)×8=10m
式中，t为最厚层泥岩厚度8m；，AR为断层长度和高度比值，根据研究区三维地震资料解释，该数值为50；L/T为断层长度和最大断距比值，根据研究区三维地震资料解释，该数值为100。In the formula, t is the thickness of the thickest mudstone layer 8m; , AR is the ratio of fault length to height, which is 50 according to the interpretation of 3D seismic data in the study area; L/T is the ratio of fault length to maximum fault throw, and is 100 according to the interpretation of 3D seismic data in the study area.
（5）断距大于Tmin的断层数量的预测(5) Prediction of the number of faults with a fault throw greater than Tmin
由于根据步骤d计算得到的Tmin（10m）往往小于地震资料上识别的断层的断距（15m），因此，不能根据地震资料直接确定断距大于Tmin的断层数量，因此需要利用分形理论对断距大于Tmin的断层数量的进行预测，具体预测方法是：利用三维地震资料，对研究区每一条地震资料上可以识别的断层几何学特征（产状、长度、高度和断距）进行精细解释，建立断层长度-累积频数关系图（图3），并根据断层长度和断层最大断距关系（图4），在双对数坐标中，建立断距-累积频数关系图（图5），然后拟合出断层最大断距和累积频数之间的关系式：Since the Tmin (10m) calculated according to step d is often smaller than the fault throw (15m) of the fault identified on the seismic data, the number of faults whose fault throw is greater than Tmin cannot be directly determined according to the seismic data, so it is necessary to use the fractal theory to analyze Predict the number of faults with a fault throw greater than Tmin . The specific prediction method is: use 3D seismic data to fine-tune the geometrical characteristics of faults (occurrence, length, height and fault throw) that can be identified on each seismic data in the study area. Interpretation, establish fault length-cumulative frequency relationship diagram (Fig. 3), and according to fault length and fault maximum fault distance relationship (Fig. 4), in double-logarithmic coordinates, establish fault distance-cumulative frequency relationship diagram (Fig. 5), Then, the relationship between the maximum fault throw and the cumulative frequency of the fault is fitted:
Y=1000x-1.5Y=1000x-1.5
带入Tmin=10m，即可求出断距大于Tmin的断层总数量Y为20条；Putting Tmin = 10m, the total number Y of faults whose fault distance is greater than Tmin can be calculated as 20;
（6）建立研究区渗漏概率模型(6) Establish a leakage probability model in the study area
根据步骤d中确定的使相邻渗漏层对接所需的最大断距Tmin、步骤e中计算的有效泥岩层数以及步骤b中建立的盖层渗漏风险模型，建立研究区渗漏概率模型并判断渗漏风险，具体实施方法为：根据步骤d确定的“最小断距”Tmin=10m，在步骤e建立的断距-累积频数关系图的横坐标找到该断距；根据步骤c中计算的有效泥岩层数10层，在步骤b建立的盖层渗漏风险模型图版中，分别查出渗透概率为0%、10%、20%、……、80%、90%、99.99%时，对应的断层数量；然后分别在步骤e建立的断距-累积频数关系图中标出这些点（横坐标为Tmin）（图6）；然后以步骤e中建立的断层最大断距和累积频数之间的关系式的斜率，过这些点，绘出表征不同渗漏概率的参考线，即建立了研究区渗漏概率模型（图6）。According to the maximum fault distance Tmin required to connect adjacent seepage layers determined in step d, the number of effective mudstone layers calculated in step e, and the cap rock seepage risk model established in step b, establish the seepage probability in the study area Model and judge the leakage risk. The specific implementation method is: according to the "minimum fault distance" Tmin = 10m determined in step d, find the fault distance in the abscissa of the fault distance-cumulative frequency relationship diagram established in step e; according to step c The number of effective mudstone layers calculated in step b is 10 layers, and the seepage probability is found to be 0%, 10%, 20%, ..., 80%, 90%, 99.99% in the caprock seepage risk model chart established in step b , the corresponding number of faults; then mark these points in the fault distance-cumulative frequency relationship diagram established in step e (the abscissa is Tmin ) (Fig. 6); then use the maximum fault distance and cumulative The slope of the relational expression between the frequencies, through these points, draw the reference line representing different leakage probabilities, that is, the leakage probability model of the study area is established (Fig. 6).
（7）模型验证及未钻探区预测(7) Model verification and undrilled area prediction
利用上述方法，首先对研究区圈闭A、圈闭B和圈闭C的盖层渗透风险进行评价，其中评价结果为圈闭A和圈闭B盖层中断层发育较少，未发生渗漏，而圈闭C中断层发育较多，发生渗漏，这与钻探结果相一致（圈闭A和圈闭B含有油气，而圈闭C中不含有油气）。然后利用该方法对圈闭D、圈闭E和圈闭F进行风险预测，预测结果为圈闭D中断层发育较少，未发生渗漏，圈闭F中断层发育较多，发生渗漏，而在圈闭E中，渗漏风险为58%作用。因此，可以在圈闭D部署钻井，尽量避免在圈闭F中部署钻井，而圈闭E则存在一定的风险。Using the above method, firstly, the seepage risks of trap A, trap B, and trap C in the study area are evaluated, and the evaluation result shows that there are few faults in the cap rocks of trap A and trap B, and no seepage occurs , while faults in trap C are more developed and seepage occurs, which is consistent with the drilling results (trap A and trap B contain oil and gas, but trap C does not contain oil and gas). Then use this method to predict the risk of trap D, trap E and trap F. The prediction result shows that trap D has fewer faults and no seepage, while trap F has more faults and seepage. In trap E, the seepage risk is 58%. Therefore, it is possible to deploy drilling in trap D, and try to avoid deploying drilling in trap F, while there is a certain risk in trap E.
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