技术领域technical field
本发明属于降水预报领域，具体地涉及一种基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法。The invention belongs to the field of precipitation forecasting, in particular to an MJO-based precipitation forecasting method in Southwest China.
背景技术Background technique
热带大气季节内震荡最先在20世纪70年代初由Madden和Julian发现，后来以Madden和Julian的名字被称为Madden Julian Oscillation(简称为MJO)，是目前全球发现的最强低频信号。目前针对热带MJO的应用，主要是用于延伸期预报。The tropical atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation was first discovered by Madden and Julian in the early 1970s. It was later called the Madden Julian Oscillation (abbreviated as MJO) after Madden and Julian. It is the strongest low-frequency signal found in the world so far. At present, the application of tropical MJO is mainly used for extended range forecasting.
而且，针对热带MJO的延伸期预报主要采用统计模型和动力模式两种方法，统计模型主要利用滞后回归模型、自回归模型、组合相似法和经验位相传播等方法来实时预报MJO，也有在多种统计方法相结合的基础上对MJO进行集合预报，如韩国利用小波分析、多元回归和奇异谱分析三种统计方法相结合对MJO进行集合预报，再与统计预报相结合，预报时效可以达到24天。动力模式主要是将MJO指数用于其全球业务中心的动力模式，如GFS/NCEP(全球预报系统)，CFS/NCEP(气候预报系统)，GEFS/NECP(全球集合预报系统)，对MJO进行实时业务预报。Moreover, the extended period forecast for tropical MJO mainly adopts statistical model and dynamical model. The statistical model mainly uses methods such as hysteresis regression model, autoregressive model, combined similarity method and empirical phase propagation to predict MJO in real time. Based on the combination of statistical methods, the ensemble forecast of MJO is carried out. For example, South Korea uses three statistical methods of wavelet analysis, multiple regression and singular spectrum analysis to carry out ensemble forecasting of MJO, and then combined with statistical forecasting, the forecasting time can reach 24 days . The dynamical model mainly uses the MJO index for its global business centers, such as GFS/NCEP (Global Forecast System), CFS/NCEP (Climate Forecast System), GEFS/NECP (Global Ensemble Prediction System), real-time MJO business forecast.
受全球气候变暖的影响，我国灾害性天气呈现多发、重发、突发的趋势，尤其是强降水引发的洪涝、泥石流、城市内捞等灾害越来越突出，造成的影响也越来越大。在我国，四川盆地降水主要集中在中部和东部地区，云贵高原年平均降水有两个大值区，分别位于云南西南部和贵州南部，西藏高原降水主要集中在东部；西南地区降水主要集中在夏季，四川盆地降水大值区主要位于四川盆地中部，云贵高原降水大值中心位于云南西南部和贵州南部，而西藏降水呈东西分布，东部降水多，西部降水相对较少。各季水汽主要来源有显著差异春冬季节季水汽来源主要是中纬度西风带，夏秋两季水汽来源主要是孟加拉湾和南海向北的水汽输送。Affected by global warming, my country's disastrous weather is showing a trend of frequent occurrence, reoccurrence, and sudden occurrence, especially floods, mudslides, and urban fishing disasters caused by heavy rainfall are becoming more and more prominent, and their impact is also increasing big. In my country, the precipitation in the Sichuan Basin is mainly concentrated in the central and eastern regions. The annual average precipitation in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau has two large value areas, which are located in the southwestern part of Yunnan and the southern part of Guizhou. The precipitation in the Tibet Plateau is mainly concentrated in the east; the precipitation in the southwest region is mainly concentrated in summer , the high-value area of precipitation in the Sichuan Basin is mainly located in the central part of the Sichuan Basin, the high-value center of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau is located in southwestern Yunnan and southern Guizhou, while the precipitation in Tibet is distributed from east to west, with more precipitation in the east and relatively less precipitation in the west. There are significant differences in the main sources of water vapor in different seasons. The main source of water vapor in spring and winter is the mid-latitude westerly belt, and the main source of water vapor in summer and autumn is the northward transport of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea.
因此，有必要提出一种基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法。Therefore, it is necessary to propose a precipitation forecast method based on MJO in Southwest China.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明的目的在于提供一种可以有效实现负载均衡的基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法。The purpose of the present invention is to provide an MJO-based precipitation forecasting method in Southwest China that can effectively realize load balancing.
本发明基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法主要通过如下步骤实现：The present invention is based on the MJO precipitation forecasting method in Southwest China mainly through the following steps:
包括如下步骤：Including the following steps:
a、提取西南地区历年的气候数据，结合历年热带MJO活动特征，对西南地区降水特征进行分类，建立基于热带MJO的降水模型；a. Extract the climate data of Southwest China over the years, combine the characteristics of tropical MJO activities over the years, classify the precipitation characteristics of Southwest China, and establish a precipitation model based on tropical MJO;
b、通过OLR、850hPa、200hPa风场计算并预报热带MJO活动的位相，并计算确定所述热带MJO活动的强弱；b. Calculate and forecast the phase of tropical MJO activities through OLR, 850hPa, and 200hPa wind fields, and calculate and determine the strength of the tropical MJO activities;
c、分析热带对流活动特征，并结合特定天气数据的实况和演变趋势进行天气诊断分析；c. Analyze the characteristics of tropical convective activities, and conduct weather diagnostic analysis in combination with the actual situation and evolution trend of specific weather data;
d、结合所述热带MJO活动特征、所述天气诊断分析和所建立的基于热带MJO的降水模型对降雨落区和强度进行综合预报。d. Combining the characteristics of the tropical MJO activity, the weather diagnostic analysis and the established precipitation model based on the tropical MJO to comprehensively forecast the rainfall area and intensity.
优选地，所述步骤a包括如下步骤：Preferably, said step a comprises the following steps:
通过观测站采集并存储西南地区历年的气候数据；Collect and store climate data over the years in Southwest China through observatories;
提取历年的所述气候数据，结合历年热带MJO活动特征，对西南地区降水特征进行分类总结，并建立基于热带MJO的降水模型。The climate data in the past years were extracted, combined with the characteristics of tropical MJO activities in the past years, the precipitation characteristics in Southwest China were classified and summarized, and a precipitation model based on tropical MJO was established.
优选地，在步骤b中，通过OLR、850hPa、200hPa风场计算热带MJO指数主要根据以下步骤进行：Preferably, in step b, the calculation of the tropical MJO index through the OLR, 850hPa, and 200hPa wind fields is mainly carried out according to the following steps:
利用历年逐日OLR、850hPa、200hPa风场逐日数据建立MJO空间模型：首先去除数据的气候平均的影响，在时间序列上对OLR、850hPa、200hPa风场三个变量场分别进行傅里叶滤波去除三阶谐波；The MJO spatial model is established by using the daily data of the OLR, 850hPa, and 200hPa wind fields over the years: firstly, the influence of the climate average of the data is removed, and the three variable fields of the OLR, 850hPa, and 200hPa wind fields are respectively subjected to Fourier filtering in the time series to remove the three variables. order harmonics;
去除季节内震荡的影响，减去各格点上数据的前120天平均值；To remove the impact of intra-seasonal shocks, subtract the average value of the previous 120 days of data at each grid point;
对三个变量场分别经全球平均方差的平方根归一化之后的合成场进行MV-EOF分析，建立MJO的空间模型，即MV-EOF的前两个模态；Carry out MV-EOF analysis on the synthetic field after the three variable fields are respectively normalized by the square root of the global average variance, and establish the spatial model of MJO, that is, the first two modes of MV-EOF;
将实时观测数据反投影到MJO的空间模型上，即基于OLR、850hPa、200hPa风场三个变量的合成场的EOF的第一、二空间模态，得到实时的MJO指数，分别记为RMM1和RMM2指数。The real-time observation data is back-projected onto the MJO space model, that is, the first and second space modes of EOF based on the synthetic field of OLR, 850hPa, and 200hPa wind field, and the real-time MJO indices are obtained, which are denoted as RMM1 and RMM2 index.
优选地，MJO活动的强弱由RMM1和RMM2指数确定。Preferably, the strength of the MJO activity is determined by the RMM1 and RMM2 indices.
优选地，在步骤c中，所述特定天气数据包括高低空急流、大气环流形式、水汽通量、孟加拉湾低压和南海低压实况和演变趋势分析。Preferably, in step c, the specific weather data includes high and low altitude jet streams, atmospheric circulation patterns, water vapor flux, low pressure in the Bay of Bengal and low pressure in the South China Sea, and analysis of evolution trends.
优选地，在步骤c中，对所述特定天气数据采用合成分析方法进行所述天气诊断分析，所述合成分析方法包括对数据进行距平和平均值的计算分析。Preferably, in step c, the weather diagnostic analysis is performed on the specific weather data using a synthetic analysis method, and the synthetic analysis method includes calculation and analysis of anomalies and average values on the data.
优选地，在原始数据中定义一个时间序列的变量xi(i＝1、2、3、…、n)，所述平均值的计算公式为：Preferably, a time series variable xi (i=1, 2, 3, ..., n) is defined in the original data, and the formula for calculating the average value is:
所述距平的计算公式为：其中，i＝1、2、3、…、n。The formula for calculating the distance is: Wherein, i=1, 2, 3, . . . , n.
相比于现有技术的缺点和不足，本发明具有以下有益效果：所述基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法针对MJO活动对西南地区降水的影响机制从低层水汽输送、低空急流、中层天气尺度系统、风场、高空急流以及高层行星尺度天气体统等角度进行分析，从而可以建立所述基于热带MJO的降水模型，进而对西南地区的降雨落区和强度进行综合预报。Compared with the shortcomings and deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: the MJO-based precipitation forecasting method for Southwest China is aimed at the influence mechanism of MJO activities on precipitation in Southwest China from low-level water vapor transport, low-level jet stream, and mid-level synoptic scale system , wind field, high-altitude jet stream, and high-level planetary-scale weather systems, etc., so that the precipitation model based on the tropical MJO can be established, and then the precipitation area and intensity in the southwest region can be comprehensively predicted.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1是本发明实施例提供的基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法的流程框图；Fig. 1 is the block flow diagram of the method for forecasting precipitation in Southwest China based on MJO provided by the embodiment of the present invention;
图2是图1所示基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法的流程示意图；Figure 2 is a flow chart of the MJO-based precipitation forecasting method in Southwest China shown in Figure 1;
图3是与图1所示基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法相关的MJO位相图。Fig. 3 is the MJO phase diagram related to the MJO-based precipitation forecast method in Southwest China shown in Fig. 1.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
为了使本发明的目的、技术方案及优点更加清楚明白，以下结合附图及实施例，对本发明进行进一步详细说明。应当理解，此处所描述的具体实施例仅仅用以解释本发明，并不用于限定本发明。In order to make the object, technical solution and advantages of the present invention more clear, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present invention, not to limit the present invention.
请同时参阅图1和图2，图1是本发明实施例提供的基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法的流程框图，图2是图1所示基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法的预报流程示意图。本发明实施例提供的所述基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法中，主要是利用1979～2014年四川盆地191个观测站、云贵高原的208个观测站、西藏高原1979～2013年38个观测站实时观测的逐日降水资料，以及NOAA提供的逐日大气向外长波辐射(Outgoing Longwave Radiation，OLR)资料和ECMWF提供的逐日纬向风、经向风、相对湿度及温度等再分析资料，分析西南地区降水分布特征以及热带MJO活动特征，以此进一步讨论热带MJO活动中心的强弱及所处位置与四川盆地、西藏高原及云贵高原降水分布的相关性以及影响机制，并在此基础上建立基于热带MJO的西南地区降水概念模型。Please refer to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2 at the same time. FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the MJO-based precipitation forecasting method in the Southwest region provided by an embodiment of the present invention, and FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the forecasting process of the MJO-based precipitation forecasting method in the Southwest region shown in FIG. 1 . In the MJO-based precipitation forecast method in Southwest China provided by the embodiments of the present invention, 191 observation stations in the Sichuan Basin, 208 observation stations in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and 38 observation stations in the Tibet Plateau from 1979 to 2013 are mainly used. Real-time observation of daily precipitation data, as well as daily atmospheric outward longwave radiation (Outgoing Longwave Radiation, OLR) data provided by NOAA and reanalysis data such as daily zonal wind, meridional wind, relative humidity and temperature provided by ECMWF, to analyze the southwestern region Precipitation distribution characteristics and tropical MJO activity characteristics, in order to further discuss the correlation between the strength and location of the tropical MJO activity center and the distribution of precipitation in the Sichuan Basin, Tibet Plateau, and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau MJO's Conceptual Model of Precipitation for the Southwest Region.
所述基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法包括如下步骤：The MJO-based method for forecasting precipitation in Southwest China comprises the following steps:
步骤S1、提取西南地区历年的气候数据，结合历年热带MJO活动特征，对西南地区降水特征进行分类，建立基于热带MJO的降水模型。Step S1, extract the climate data of the southwest region over the years, combine the characteristics of the tropical MJO activity over the years, classify the precipitation characteristics of the southwest region, and establish a precipitation model based on the tropical MJO.
具体地，所述步骤S1包括如下步骤：Specifically, the step S1 includes the following steps:
通过观测站采集并存储西南地区历年的气候数据；Collect and store climate data over the years in Southwest China through observatories;
结合历年热带MJO活动特征，对西南地区降水特征进行分类；Combined with the characteristics of tropical MJO activities over the years, the precipitation characteristics in Southwest China were classified;
建立基于热带MJO的降水模型；Establish a precipitation model based on tropical MJO;
例如，1979-2014年四川盆地、云贵高原、西藏高原三个区域(总计437个站点)的逐日降水资料。逐日降水资料主要用于分析西南地区降水的气候分布特征，并结合热带MJO逐日位相、振幅资料，讨论热带MJO活动位于不同位相时与西南地区降水的关系。For example, the daily precipitation data of three regions (a total of 437 stations) in the Sichuan Basin, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and Tibet Plateau from 1979 to 2014. The daily precipitation data are mainly used to analyze the climate distribution characteristics of precipitation in Southwest China, and combined with the daily phase and amplitude data of tropical MJO, discuss the relationship between tropical MJO activities in different phases and precipitation in Southwest China.
例如：美国NOAA提供的全球逐日OLR，水平分辨率为2.5°×2.5°；主要用于分析热带及西南地区强对流活动中心的移动分布情况。For example: the global daily OLR provided by NOAA in the United States has a horizontal resolution of 2.5°×2.5°; it is mainly used to analyze the movement distribution of strong convective activity centers in the tropics and southwest regions.
1979-2014年欧洲中心(ECMWF)1°×1°分辨率的逐日再分析资料，主要包括温度、经向风、纬向风、相对湿度、比湿和气压等气象要素。主要用于分析1979-2014年热带MJO对流活动中心位于不同位相时，各季节大气环流形势、风场、水汽通量等分布情况，研究讨论热带MJO活动对对西南地区降水的具体影响机制。1979-2014 European Center (ECMWF) daily reanalysis data at 1°×1° resolution, mainly including meteorological elements such as temperature, meridional wind, zonal wind, relative humidity, specific humidity, and air pressure. It is mainly used to analyze the distribution of the atmospheric circulation situation, wind field, and water vapor flux in each season when the center of convective activity of the tropical MJO is in different phases from 1979 to 2014, and to study and discuss the specific impact mechanism of the tropical MJO activity on the precipitation in the southwest region.
澳大利亚气象局官方网站提供的实时监测的MJO指数序列(包括RMM指数序列1、2，记为RMM1、RMM2)、MJO振幅以及1979-2014年逐逐日位相。The real-time monitoring MJO index series (including RMM index series 1 and 2, denoted as RMM1 and RMM2), MJO amplitude and daily phase from 1979 to 2014 provided by the official website of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
步骤S2、通过OLR、850hPa、200hPa风场计算并预报热带MJO活动的位相，并计算确定所述热带MJO活动的强弱。Step S2, calculate and forecast the phase of tropical MJO activity through OLR, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field, and calculate and determine the intensity of said tropical MJO activity.
具体地，如图3所示，是与图1所示基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法相关的MJO逐日位相图。MJO的8个位相分别代表了热带MJO对流活动中心在从西向东一个完整的MJO周期中所处的不同位置，1-8位相分别代表MJO活动中心从赤道西印度洋为起源(第1位相)，沿赤道向东传播，分别位于印度洋(2、3位相)、印尼群岛(4位相)、西太平洋(5-6位相)、太平洋中部、东部(7位相)和西半球(8位相)。在所述MJO位相图中，各位相点离圆心的直线距离则为MJO的强度(振幅)，可由RMM1和RMM2指数计算得到，计算公式为在图中设定单位半径为1的圆圈内区域，即RMM<1时，表示为弱MJO活动，圆圈区域以外，即RMM>1时表示为强MJO活动。Specifically, as shown in Fig. 3, it is the MJO daily phase diagram related to the MJO-based precipitation forecast method in Southwest China shown in Fig. 1 . The 8 phases of the MJO respectively represent the different positions of the tropical MJO convective activity center in a complete MJO cycle from west to east, and phases 1-8 respectively represent the origin of the MJO activity center from the equatorial western Indian Ocean (the first phase), It spreads eastward along the equator and is located in the Indian Ocean (phases 2 and 3), the Indonesian archipelago (phase 4), the western Pacific Ocean (phases 5-6), the central Pacific Ocean, the east (phase 7) and the western hemisphere (phase 8). In the MJO phase diagram, the linear distance between each phase point and the center of the circle is the strength (amplitude) of the MJO, which can be calculated by the RMM1 and RMM2 indices, and the calculation formula is In the figure, the area inside the circle with a unit radius of 1 is set, that is, when RMM<1, it indicates weak MJO activity, and outside the circle area, that is, when RMM>1, it indicates strong MJO activity.
而且，在步骤2中，通过OLR、850hPa、200hPa风场计算热带MJO指数主要根据以下步骤进行：Moreover, in step 2, the calculation of tropical MJO index through OLR, 850hPa, and 200hPa wind field is mainly carried out according to the following steps:
利用历年逐日OLR、850hPa、200hPa风场逐日数据建立MJO空间模型：首先去除数据的气候平均的影响，在时间序列上对OLR、850hPa、200hPa风场三个变量场分别进行傅里叶滤波去除三阶谐波；The MJO spatial model is established by using the daily data of the OLR, 850hPa, and 200hPa wind fields over the years: firstly, the influence of the climate average of the data is removed, and the three variable fields of the OLR, 850hPa, and 200hPa wind fields are respectively subjected to Fourier filtering in the time series to remove the three variables. order harmonics;
去除季节内震荡的影响，减去各格点上数据的前120天平均值；To remove the impact of intra-seasonal shocks, subtract the average value of the previous 120 days of data at each grid point;
然后对三个变量场分别经全球平均方差的平方根归一化之后的合成场进行MV-EOF分析，建立MJO的空间模型，即MV-EOF的前两个模态；Then MV-EOF analysis is performed on the synthetic field of the three variable fields normalized by the square root of the global average variance, and the spatial model of MJO is established, that is, the first two modes of MV-EOF;
最后，将实时观测数据反投影到MJO的空间模型上，即基于OLR、850hPa、200hPa风场三个变量的合成场的EOF的第一、二空间模态，得到实时的MJO指数，分别记为RMM1和RMM2指数。Finally, the real-time observation data is back-projected onto the MJO spatial model, that is, the first and second spatial modes of EOF based on the synthetic field of OLR, 850hPa, and 200hPa wind field to obtain the real-time MJO index, respectively denoted as RMM1 and RMM2 indices.
需要说明的是，在构建MJO的空间模型时，MV-EOF是经验正交函数分析方法EOF中的一种，EOF是一种分析矩阵数据中的结构特征，提取主要数据特征量的一种方法，能够把随时间变化的变量场分解为不随时间变化的空间函数部分以及只依赖时间变化的时间函数部分，MV-EOF则可以同时对多个变量进行特征向量分析。It should be noted that when constructing the MJO space model, MV-EOF is one of the empirical orthogonal function analysis methods EOF, and EOF is a method for analyzing the structural features in the matrix data and extracting the main data feature quantities , can decompose the time-varying variable field into a space function part that does not change with time and a time function part that only depends on time change, and MV-EOF can perform eigenvector analysis on multiple variables at the same time.
步骤S3、分析热带对流活动特征，并结合特定天气数据的实况和演变趋势进行天气诊断分析；Step S3, analyze the characteristics of tropical convective activity, and carry out weather diagnosis and analysis in combination with the real situation and evolution trend of specific weather data;
具体地，利用统计学方法分析西南地区降水的时空分布特征，通过合成分析研究讨论热带MJO活动对我国西南地区降水的影响，同时运用天气学方法研究降水期间天气形势、动力场和水汽等配置情况，研究热带MJO活动对我国西南地区降水具体的影响机制。Specifically, statistical methods are used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in Southwest China, and the impact of tropical MJO activities on precipitation in Southwest my country is discussed through synthetic analysis. At the same time, synoptic methods are used to study the configuration of weather conditions, dynamic fields, and water vapor during precipitation. , to study the specific impact mechanism of tropical MJO activities on precipitation in Southwest my country.
其中，在所述步骤S3中，所述特定天气分析包括高低空急流、大气环流形式、水汽通量、孟加拉湾低压和南海低压等。Wherein, in the step S3, the specific weather analysis includes high and low altitude jet streams, atmospheric circulation patterns, water vapor flux, low pressure in the Bay of Bengal and low pressure in the South China Sea, and the like.
而且，在所述步骤S3中，对所述特定天气数据采用合成分析方法进行所述天气诊断分析，所述合成分析方法包括对数据进行平均值和距平的计算分析。Moreover, in the step S3, the weather diagnostic analysis is performed on the specific weather data using a synthetic analysis method, and the synthetic analysis method includes calculation and analysis of the average value and anomaly of the data.
需要说明的是，距平是某一系列数值中的某一个数值与平均值的差，分正距平和负距平。距平值在气候诊断分析中，距平值经常用来代替气象要素的观测值，主要是用来确定某个时段或时次的数据，相对于该数据的某个长期平均值是高还是低。原始值通常用于表征某个时段或时次真实水平。It should be noted that the anomaly is the difference between a certain value in a series of values and the average value, and can be divided into positive anomaly and negative anomaly. Anomaly In climate diagnostic analysis, anomaly is often used to replace the observed value of meteorological elements, mainly to determine whether the data of a certain period or time is high or low relative to a long-term average of the data . Raw values are usually used to represent the true level of a certain period or times.
具体地，在所述合成分析过程中，在原始数据中定义一个时间序列的变量xi(i＝1、2、3、…、n)，所述平均值的计算公式为：所述距平的计算公式为：其中，i＝1、2、3、…、n。Specifically, in the synthetic analysis process, a variable xi (i=1, 2, 3, ..., n) of a time series is defined in the original data, and the calculation formula of the average value is: The formula for calculating the distance is: Wherein, i=1, 2, 3, . . . , n.
而且，针对四川盆地、西藏高原和云贵高原三个地区各站点在春、夏、秋、冬四个季节在热带MJO活动分别位于第1-8位相时的降水进行距平合成，得到各季节MJO位于不同位相时，各地区(站点)对应降水情况，以此分析热带MJO活动在不同强度、不同位相时，与我国西南各地区降水分布的关系。Moreover, the anomaly synthesis is carried out for the precipitation of each station in the Sichuan Basin, the Tibet Plateau and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in the four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter when the tropical MJO activity is in the 1st-8th phase respectively, and the MJO of each season is obtained When they are in different phases, each region (station) corresponds to the precipitation, so as to analyze the relationship between tropical MJO activities at different intensities and different phases and the distribution of precipitation in various regions of Southwest my country.
例如，以各季节逐日1979～2014年降水的气候平均值作为降水平均值，得到的合成值为正，表明该站点降水偏多，为负时，表明降水偏少。单站日平均降水距平百分率是对四川盆地、西藏高原和云贵高原各地区整体降水的距平合成，表明了该地区整体降水的强弱，为正时，表明该地区整体降水偏多，为负时表明该地区整体降水偏少。For example, if the climatological average of daily precipitation in each season from 1979 to 2014 is used as the average precipitation, the composite value obtained is positive, indicating that the precipitation at the station is too high, and negative, indicating that the precipitation is low. The daily average precipitation anomaly percentage of a single station is the anomaly synthesis of the overall precipitation in the Sichuan Basin, Tibet Plateau, and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, indicating the intensity of the overall precipitation in this area. When it is positive, it indicates that the overall precipitation in this area is on the high side. Negative times indicate less precipitation in the area as a whole.
又例如，将1979-2014年强弱MJO活动1-8位相对应的降水分别提取出来，依然以各季节逐日1979-2014年降水的气候平均值作为降水平均值，在此基础上做距平合成分析，得到强弱不同MJO活动位于1-8位相时对应西南各地区降水的分布情况以及整体趋势，得到的正(负)距平百分率分别代表降水偏多(少)。具体地，对500hPa位势高度场和风场、200hPa高空急流、100hPa位势高度场(南亚高压)、850hPa水汽通量、垂直云顶以及低空急流也以同样的方式进行合成分析，得到对应的异常特征，分析各位相对西南地区降水影响的可能机制。Another example is to extract the precipitation corresponding to the 1-8 digits of the strong and weak MJO activities from 1979 to 2014, and still use the climate average of the daily precipitation in each season from 1979 to 2014 as the average precipitation, and make anomaly synthesis on this basis According to the analysis, the distribution and overall trend of precipitation corresponding to the southwest regions when the MJO activities of different strengths and weaknesses are located in phases 1-8 are obtained, and the positive (negative) anomaly percentages respectively represent more (less) precipitation. Specifically, the same method is used to synthesize and analyze the geopotential height field and wind field at 500hPa, high-altitude jet at 200hPa, geopotential height field at 100hPa (South Asia High), water vapor flux at 850hPa, vertical cloud tops, and low-level jet, and the corresponding anomalous characteristics are obtained , to analyze the possible mechanism of each relative to the influence of precipitation in the southwest region.
步骤S4、结合所述热带MJO活动特征、所述天气诊断分析和所建立的基于热带MJO的降水模型对降雨落区和强度进行综合预报。Step S4 , combining the characteristics of the tropical MJO activity, the weather diagnostic analysis and the established precipitation model based on the tropical MJO to comprehensively forecast the rainfall area and intensity.
具体地，例如，针对四川盆地降水主要通过降水距平来讨论，降水距平百分率计算公式为：Specifically, for example, the precipitation in the Sichuan Basin is mainly discussed through precipitation anomalies, and the formula for calculating the percentage of precipitation anomalies is:
其中，a为实际观测值，b为降水量的气候平均值，降水距平百分率反映了某一时段降水与同期平均状态的偏离程度。Among them, a is the actual observation value, b is the climatic average of precipitation, and the percentage of precipitation anomaly reflects the deviation degree of precipitation in a certain period of time from the average state of the same period.
相较于现有技术，本发明提供的基于MJO的西南地区降水预报方法针对MJO活动对西南地区降水的影响机制从底层水汽输送、低空急流、中层天气尺度系统、风场、高空急流以及高层行星尺度体统的角度进行分析，从而可以建立所述基于热带MJO的降水模型，进而对西南地区的降雨落区和强度进行综合预报。Compared with the prior art, the MJO-based precipitation forecasting method for Southwest China provided by the present invention aims at the influence mechanism of MJO activities on precipitation in Southwest China from bottom water vapor transport, low-level jet stream, mid-level synoptic scale system, wind field, high-level jet stream and high-level planet From the perspective of scale system, the precipitation model based on tropical MJO can be established, and then the rainfall area and intensity in Southwest China can be comprehensively predicted.
以上所述仅为本发明的较佳实施例而已，并不用以限制本发明，凡在本发明的精神和原则之内所作的任何修改、等同替换和改进等，均应包含在本发明的保护范围之内。The above descriptions are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent replacements and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection of the present invention. within range.
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