CN105427014A - Method and system used for emergency decision of nuclear power accidents - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a method used for emergency decision of nuclear power accidents. The method includes following steps: a) obtaining external data of a nuclear accident region, and generating a decision scheme set according to the external data; b) generating internal data of the decision scheme set; c) comparing the decision scheme set in the external data with geological limiting factors of a nuclear accident scene, screening schemes which are not in accordance with the nuclear accident scene, and generating the internal data of the remaining decision schemes again; d) obtaining a feasible scheme of the internal data and generating a decision set; e)calculating corresponding weights according to to-be-taken measures of different places of the nuclear accident scene; f) calculating each feasible scheme according to the analysis method, and generating the internal data by calculating results according to priority; g) calculating the schemes in an internal database, and submitting the obtained optimal scheme to a user; h) collecting and feeding back user suggestions and generating user amending suggestion data; and i) generating a new decision scheme again according to the user amending suggestion data.

Description

A kind of method and system for Nuclear Power Accident Emergency decision

Technical field

The present invention relates to areas of information technology, relate generally to a kind of method and system for Nuclear Power Accident Emergency decision.

Background technology

Nuclear energy is high-energy, few feed consumption, the clean energy, utilizes nuclear energy power generation superiority to give prominence to, and more than 30 country in the whole world all has nuclear power station.While utilization development nuclear energy, the harm of nuclear accident allows people frightened equally.Nuclear accident is once occur, very harmful, and its harm is the whole world whole mankind.Not only destructive power is strong for it, and damage envelope is wide, and more seriously, the nuclear pollution duration is very long, to the mankind bring lasting, be difficult to the disaster that makes up.As three mile island nuclear station accident, the Chernobyl accident of Ukraine, the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident etc. of Japan of the U.S., its harm is big, and casualties is big, the length of influence time, and the whole world is more and more paid attention to nuclear safety.

This several times nuclear accident tell us: once nuclear power station generation major accident, its harm and consequence very serious.In the great nuclear accident situation of generation, how to take measure timely and effectively and action, avoiding the harm such as casualties, genetic radiation effect and environmental pollution and loss, is realistic problem urgently to be resolved hurrily, i.e. emergency decision problem.Nuclear accident is generally divided in early days, mid-term, late period three phases, the early stage appropriate measures of nuclear accident, consider fully, protection in time, have decisive influence to accident middle and later periods result, thus carry out early stage emergency decision particularly important.Due to the importance of nuclear power station and the singularity of technology thereof, although it is lower that the probability of nuclear accident occurs, in view of once occur, affect huge, as long as nuclear power station exists a moment, the correlative study of Nuclear Accident Emergency just must continue, and can not be interrupted or loosen.

Emergency decision relates to that factor is many, scope is wide, typical state of risk, unstructuredness, multiattribute system decision-making problem, must with the decision theory of science and method for instructing, by computer run Nuclear Accident Emergency Real-Time Decision Support System, consider multifactor, show that optimizing decision is for decision maker's reference, according to the suggestion Adjusted Option of decision maker, can make new decision-making simultaneously fast.

Summary of the invention

The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of emergency decision back-up system.System, mainly for the early stage urgency of nuclear accident, is the scientific decision-making support taking appropriate safeguard procedures to provide quick, efficient, actual, and can generates new decision support scheme fast according to decision maker's suggestion, improves Nuclear Accident Emergency reaction velocity.

According to an aspect of the present invention, provide a kind of for Nuclear Power Accident Emergency decision method, described method comprises the steps: a) to obtain the external data that nuclear accident region occurs, and generates schemes of countermeasures set according to external data; B) schemes of countermeasures set is generated internal data; C) the geographic restrictions factor of the schemes of countermeasures set in internal data and nuclear accident spot is compared, filter out the scheme not meeting this nuclear accident spot, and remaining schemes of countermeasures is regenerated internal data; D) obtain the feasible program of internal data and generate decision-making set; E) corresponding weights are calculated according to the measure occurring to intend taking in each different location, nuclear accident area; F) according to analytical approach, each feasible program is calculated, and result of calculation is generated internal data by priority; G) calculate the scheme in internal database, the optimal case of gained is committed to user; H) gather also feedback user suggestion and generate family suggestion for revision data; I) new decision scheme is regenerated according to family suggestion for revision data.

Preferably, step e described in claim 1) in the computing method of corresponding weights be order relation analytic approach, the step of described method comprises:

A) determine needed for take measures about the order relation of importance, i.e. (x₁>x₂... >x_n);

Wherein x_nrepresent a kind of measure;

B) according to formula r_k=ω_k-1/ ω_kto adjacent measure x_k-1with x_krelative importance compare judgement, and carry out assignment with reference to assignment reference table;

Wherein, ω_kexpression measure x_ksignificance level, i.e. weights, r_krepresent adjacent measure x_k-1with x_kbetween the multilevel iudge of relative importance degree;

C) according to formulawith formula ω_k-1=r_kω_kcalculate the weights that measures is corresponding.

Preferably, step f described in claim 1) analytical approach be appraisal procedure based on index sequence advantage, the step of described method comprises:

A) advantage matrix number (D=(d is obtained_ij)_{m × n}) and index advantage sequence group (D_i);

B) by arranging b value and formulaobtain index advantage sequence group (D_i) advantage weight vector ω_i(b_k) and index (x₁, x₂..., x_n) advantage weight vector w_i(b_k);

Wherein b_krepresent the data sequence (b of setting₁, b₂..., b_q) in value corresponding to arbitrary data, k ∈ 1,2 ..., q}, b_k>0;

Wherein formulaget u=x^b, x ∈ R⁺, b>0 and be a data sequence centered by 1;

C) formula is passed through

$s\left(o_{i^{\′}}>o_{i^{\′\′}}\right)=P\left(\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)>\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)\right)+0.5P\left(\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)\right)$

Construct scheme odds between two compared with stochastic dominance weight vector (w^*_{i', i "}(b_k));

Wherein o_i', o_{i "}for any two schemes, i' ≠ i ",for o_i'to o_{i "}winning degree, set function P is probability of occurrence, i " represent the subscript of scheme two correspondence in any two schemes, i' represents the subscript of scheme one correspondence in any two schemes;

D) the winning degree matrix S (b of all feasible programs is tried to achieve by Monte Carlo simulation approach_k);

E) by h (o_i)=count (s_ij>0.5) sequence of feasible program is obtained;

Wherein h (o_i) be scheme o_ithe excellent super number of (on S i-th row), count () is counting function, represents the number of the " " element that satisfies condition.

Preferably, the influence factor of described generation decision-making set comprises the hierarchy of criteria, decision structure and environment, decision rule.

Preferably, the workflow of described generation decision-making set for asking a question, formation problem, problem analysis, evaluation deal with problems and implementation decision scheme double teacher.

Preferably, the external data of described nuclear power station comprises nuclear power station location and geography around thereof, meteorology, hydrographic data, each position estimate radiation dose, take the judgment rule of safeguard procedures.

Preferably, described geographic restrictions factor comprises meteorological condition, fabric structure, water source, road situation.

According to another aspect of the present invention, provide a kind of for Nuclear Power Accident Decision System of Emergency, it is characterized in that: described system comprises internal database, external data base, countermeasure generation module, computing module, scheme solution module, system interaction platform and user's suggestion for revision database: the data that described internal database transmits mutually for the operation result and each intermodule depositing described computing module; Described external data base is for managing and collect the external data of nuclear power station; Described countermeasure generation module reads the data of described external data base, and generates multiple possible schemes of countermeasures set according to it; Described computing module carries out corresponding weight computing for the measure taked in nuclear accident; Described scheme solves module according to the operation result of described computing module, is optimized and forms final program decisions set to measure; Described system interaction platform provides decision maker the platform adjusted schemes of countermeasures set, realizes the operation of described inside and outside database; Described user's suggestion for revision database is used for recording user to the feedback opinion of decision scheme.

Preferably, described system also comprises analyzing subsystem, for the radioactive concentration distribution that upgrades, estimate the environment of the present and the future in without countermeasure situation and the dosage/dose rate caused thereof.

A kind of emergency decision back-up system of the present invention, can accurately store nuclear power station and ambient data comprehensively, real-time grasp is accomplished to nuclear power station and surrounding enviroment data, once generation nuclear accident, can generative science is reasonable, realistic immediately Emergency decision scheme, greatly promote Nuclear Accident Emergency disposal efficiency, for Nuclear Accident Emergency rescue is raced against time, as far as possible to reduce the harm that nuclear accident causes as far as possible.

Accompanying drawing explanation

In order to the clearer explanation embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, be briefly described to the accompanying drawing used required in embodiment or description of the prior art below, apparently, accompanying drawing in the following describes is only some embodiments of the present invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, under the prerequisite not paying creative work, other accompanying drawings can also be obtained according to these accompanying drawings.

Fig. 1 shows the workflow diagram according to emergency decision back-up system of the present invention;

Fig. 2 shows the module composition diagram according to emergency decision back-up system of the present invention;

Fig. 3 shows the computing method process flow diagram of the corresponding weights according to emergency decision back-up system of the present invention;

Fig. 4 shows the analytical approach process flow diagram of the decision-making module according to emergency decision back-up system of the present invention.

Embodiment

By reference to one exemplary embodiment, object of the present invention and function and the method for realizing these objects and function will be illustrated.But the present invention is not limited to following disclosed one exemplary embodiment, can be realized by multi-form to it.The essence of instructions is only help various equivalent modifications Integrated Understanding detail of the present invention.

Fig. 1 shows the workflow diagram according to emergency decision back-up system of the present invention, as shown in Figure 1, comprises the steps: for Nuclear Power Accident Emergency decision method

Step 101: obtain the external data that nuclear accident region occurs, generates schemes of countermeasures set according to external data;

Step 102: schemes of countermeasures set is generated internal data;

Step 103: the geographic restrictions factor of the schemes of countermeasures set in internal data and nuclear accident spot is compared, filters out the scheme not meeting this nuclear accident spot, and remaining schemes of countermeasures is regenerated internal data;

Step 104: obtain the feasible program of internal data and generate decision-making set;

Step 105: the measure according to occurring to intend taking in each different location, nuclear accident area calculates corresponding weights, and the algorithm pattern 3 about corresponding weights is described in detail it;

Step 106: according to analytical approach, calculates each feasible program, and result of calculation is generated internal data by priority;

Step 107: calculate the scheme in internal database, the optimal case of gained is committed to user;

Step 108: gather and feedback user suggestion generation family suggestion for revision data;

Step 109: regenerate new decision scheme according to user's suggestion for revision data.

Fig. 2 shows the module composition diagram according to emergency decision back-up system of the present invention, as shown in Figure 2, internal database 201, external data base 207, countermeasure generation module 203, computing module 204, scheme solution module 205, system interaction platform 206 and user's suggestion for revision database 206 is comprised for Nuclear Power Accident Decision System of Emergency:

The data that internal database 201 transmits mutually for the operation result and each intermodule depositing computing module 204.

External data base 207 is for managing and collect the external data of nuclear power station.

According to one embodiment of present invention, the external data of nuclear power station comprises nuclear power station location and geography around thereof, meteorology, hydrographic data, each position estimate radiation dose, take the judgment rule of safeguard procedures; According to another embodiment of the invention, geographic restrictions factor comprises meteorological condition, fabric structure, water source, road situation.

The data in countermeasure generation module 203 reading external data storehouse 207, and generate multiple possible schemes of countermeasures set according to it.

According to one embodiment of present invention, the influence factor generating decision-making set comprises the hierarchy of criteria, decision structure and environment, decision rule; According to another embodiment of the invention, generate the workflow of decision-making set for asking a question, formation problem, problem analysis, evaluation deal with problems and implementation decision scheme double teacher.

Computing module 204 carries out corresponding weight computing for the measure taked in nuclear accident.

Scheme solves module 205 according to the operation result of computing module 204, is optimized and forms final program decisions set to measure.

System interaction platform 202 provides decision maker the platform adjusted schemes of countermeasures set, realizes the operation of inside and outside database.

User's suggestion for revision database 206 is for the feedback opinion of recording user to decision scheme.

According to one embodiment of present invention, system also comprises analyzing subsystem, for the radioactive concentration distribution that upgrades, estimate the environment of the present and the future in without countermeasure situation and the dosage/dose rate caused thereof.

Fig. 3 shows the computing method process flow diagram of the corresponding weights according to emergency decision back-up system of the present invention, and as shown in Figure 3, the computing method of the corresponding weights in Fig. 1 step 105 are order relation analytic approach, and step comprises:

Step 301: take measures needed for determining about the order relation (x of importance₁>x₂... >x_n);

Wherein x_nrepresent a kind of measure;

Step 302: according to formula r_k=ω_k-1/ ω_kto adjacent measure x_k-1with x_krelative importance compare judgement, and carry out assignment with reference to assignment reference table, assignment reference table is as shown in the table:

R_kassignment reference table

Wherein, ω_kexpression measure x_ksignificance level, namely weigh, r_krepresent adjacent measure x_k-1with x_kbetween the multilevel iudge of relative importance degree;

Step 303: according to formulawith formula ω_k-1=r_kω_kcalculate the weights that measures is corresponding.

Fig. 4 shows the analytical approach process flow diagram of the decision-making module according to emergency decision back-up system of the present invention, and as shown in Figure 4, the analytical approach in Fig. 1 step 106 is the appraisal procedure based on index sequence advantage, and step comprises:

Step 401: obtain advantage matrix number (D=(d_ij)_{m × n}) and index advantage sequence group (D_i);

Step 402: by arranging b value and formulaobtain index advantage sequence group (D_i) advantage weight vector ω_i(b_k) and index (x₁, x₂..., x_n) advantage weight vector w_i(b_k);

Wherein b_krepresent the data sequence (b of setting₁, b₂..., b_q) in value corresponding to arbitrary data, k ∈ 1,2 ..., q}, b_k>0;

Wherein formulaget u=x^b, x ∈ R⁺, b>0 and be a data sequence centered by 1;

Step 403: pass through formula

$s\left(o_{i^{\′}}>o_{i^{\′\′}}\right)=P\left(\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)>\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)\right)+0.5P\left(\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)\right)$

Construct scheme odds between two compared with stochastic dominance weight vector (w^*_{i', i "}(b_k));

Wherein o_i', o_{i "}for any two schemes, i' ≠ i ",for o_i'to o_{i "}winning degree, set function P is probability of occurrence, i " represent the subscript of scheme two correspondence in any two schemes, i' represents the subscript of scheme one correspondence in any two schemes;

Step 404: the winning degree matrix S (b being tried to achieve all feasible programs by Monte Carlo simulation approach_k);

Step 405: by h (o_i)=count (s_ij>0.5) sequence of feasible program is obtained;

Wherein h (o_i) be scheme o_ithe excellent super number of (on S i-th row), count () is counting function, represents the number of the " " element that satisfies condition.

A kind of emergency decision back-up system of the present invention, can accurately store nuclear power station and ambient data comprehensively, real-time grasp is accomplished to nuclear power station and surrounding enviroment data, once generation nuclear accident, can generative science is reasonable, realistic immediately Emergency decision scheme, greatly promote Nuclear Accident Emergency disposal efficiency, for Nuclear Accident Emergency rescue is raced against time, as far as possible to reduce the harm that nuclear accident causes as far as possible.

Being more than the present invention's preferably example, is not limit the scope of the present invention, therefore all equivalences done according to structure, feature and the principle described in the present patent application the scope of the claims change or modify, and all should be included in patent claim of the present invention.

Claims (9)

1., for a Nuclear Power Accident Emergency decision method, described method comprises the steps:

A) obtain the external data that nuclear accident region occurs, generate schemes of countermeasures set according to external data;

B) schemes of countermeasures set is generated internal data;

C) the geographic restrictions factor of the schemes of countermeasures set in internal data and nuclear accident spot is compared, filter out the scheme not meeting this nuclear accident spot, and remaining schemes of countermeasures is regenerated internal data;

D) obtain the feasible program of internal data and generate decision-making set;

E) corresponding weights are calculated according to the measure occurring to intend taking in each different location, nuclear accident area;

F) according to analytical approach, each feasible program is calculated, and result of calculation is generated internal data by priority;

G) calculate the scheme in internal database, the optimal case of gained is committed to user;

H) gather also feedback user suggestion and generate user's suggestion for revision data;

I) new decision scheme is regenerated according to user's suggestion for revision data.

2. as claimed in claim 1 for Nuclear Power Accident Emergency decision method, to it is characterized in that: described step e) in the computing method of corresponding weights be order relation analytic approach, the step of described method comprises:

A) determine needed for take measures about the order relation of importance, i.e. (x₁>x₂... >x_n);

Wherein x_nrepresent a kind of measure;

B) according to formula r_k=ω_k-1/ ω_kto adjacent measure x_k-1with x_krelative importance compare judgement, and carry out assignment with reference to assignment reference table;

Wherein, ω_kexpression measure x_ksignificance level, i.e. weights, r_krepresent adjacent measure x_k-1with x_kbetween the multilevel iudge of relative importance degree;

C) according to formulawith formula ω_k-1=r_kω_kcalculate the weights that measures is corresponding.

3. as claimed in claim 1 for Nuclear Power Accident Emergency decision method, to it is characterized in that: described step f) analytical approach be appraisal procedure based on index sequence advantage, the step of described method comprises:

A) advantage matrix number (D=(d is obtained_ij)_{m × n}) and index advantage sequence group (D_i);

B) by arranging b value and formulaobtain index advantage sequence group (D_i) advantage weight vector ω_i(b_k) and index (x₁, x₂..., x_n) advantage weight vector w_i(b_k);

Wherein b=b is set_k, b_krepresent the data sequence (b of setting₁, b₂..., b_q) in value corresponding to arbitrary data, k ∈ 1,2 ..., q}, b_k>0;

Wherein formulaget u=x^b, x ∈ R⁺, b>0 and be a data sequence centered by 1;

C) formula is passed through

$s\left(o_{i^{\′}}>o_{i^{\′\′}}\right)=P\left(\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)>\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)\right)+0.5P\left(\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{x}_{i^{\′\′}j}{w}_j^{*}\left(i^{\′},i^{\′\′}\right)\right)$Construct scheme odds between two compared with stochastic dominance weight vector (w^*_{i', i "}(b_k));

Wherein o_i', o_{i "}for any two schemes, i' ≠ i ", s (o_i'> o_{i "}) be o_i'to o_{i "}winning degree, set function P is probability of occurrence, i " represent the subscript of scheme two correspondence in any two schemes, i' represents the subscript of scheme one correspondence in any two schemes;

D) the winning degree matrix S (b of all feasible programs is tried to achieve by Monte Carlo simulation approach_k);

E) by h (o_i)=count (s_ij>0.5) sequence of feasible program is obtained;

Wherein h (o_i) be scheme o_ithe excellent super number of (on S i-th row), count () is counting function, represents the number of the " " element that satisfies condition.

4. as claimed in claim 1 for Nuclear Power Accident Emergency decision method, it is characterized in that: the influence factor of described generation decision-making set comprises the hierarchy of criteria, decision structure and environment, decision rule.

5. as claimed in claim 1 for Nuclear Power Accident Emergency decision method, it is characterized in that: the workflow of described generation decision-making set for asking a question, formation problem, problem analysis, evaluation deal with problems and implementation decision scheme double teacher.

6. as claimed in claim 1 for Nuclear Power Accident Emergency decision method, it is characterized in that: the external data of described nuclear power station comprises nuclear power station location and geography around thereof, meteorology, hydrographic data, each position are estimated radiation dose, taked the judgment rule of safeguard procedures.

7. as claimed in claim 1 for Nuclear Power Accident Emergency decision method, it is characterized in that: described geographic restrictions factor comprises meteorological condition, fabric structure, water source, road situation.

8. for a Nuclear Power Accident Decision System of Emergency, it is characterized in that: described system comprises internal database, external data base, countermeasure generation module, computing module, scheme solution module, system interaction platform and user's suggestion for revision database:

The data that described internal database transmits mutually for the operation result and each intermodule depositing described computing module;

Described external data base is for managing and collect the external data of nuclear power station;

Described countermeasure generation module reads the data of described external data base, and generates multiple possible schemes of countermeasures set according to it;

Described computing module carries out corresponding weight computing for the measure taked in nuclear accident;

Described scheme solves module according to the operation result of described computing module, is optimized and forms final program decisions set to measure;

Described system interaction platform provides decision maker the platform adjusted schemes of countermeasures set, realizes the operation of described inside and outside database;

Described user's suggestion for revision database is used for recording user to the feedback opinion of decision scheme.

9. as claimed in claim 8 for Nuclear Power Accident Decision System of Emergency, it is characterized in that: described system also comprises analyzing subsystem, for the radioactive concentration distribution that upgrades, estimate the environment of the present and the future in without countermeasure situation and the dosage/dose rate caused thereof.