CN103150684A - Evaluation index degradation impact analysis method based on analytic hierarchy process - Google Patents
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Abstract
Translated fromChinese
Description
Translated fromChinese技术领域technical field
本发明涉及配电网分析领域，具体涉及一种基于层次分析法的评估指标劣化影响分析方法。The invention relates to the field of distribution network analysis, in particular to a method for analyzing the impact of evaluation index degradation based on the analytic hierarchy process.
背景技术Background technique
综合评价指对以多属性体系结构描述的对象系统做出全局性、整体性的评价，即对评价对象的全体，根据所给的条件，采用一定的方法给每个评价对象赋予一个评价值，再据此择优或排序。综合评价方法又称为多变量综合评价方法、多指标综合评估技术。Comprehensive evaluation refers to making a global and holistic evaluation of the object system described by the multi-attribute architecture, that is, for the entire evaluation object, according to the given conditions, a certain method is used to assign an evaluation value to each evaluation object. Then choose or rank accordingly. The comprehensive evaluation method is also called multi-variable comprehensive evaluation method and multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation technology.
传统的层次分析法是综合评价方法的一种，是由美国匹茨堡大学在上世纪70年代提出的，是将决策有关的元素分解成目标、准则、方案等层次，在此基础之上进行定性和定量分析的决策方法。该方法是在为美国国防部研究“根据各个工业部门对国家福利的贡献大小而进行电力分配”课题时，应用网络系统理论和多目标综合评价方法，提出的一种层次权重决策分析方法。AHP法以其定性与定量相结合处理各种决策因素的特点，及系统、灵活、简洁的优点，迅速地在社会、经济等领域中得到广泛的应用，如能源系统分析、城市规划、经济管理、科研评价等。The traditional analytic hierarchy process is a kind of comprehensive evaluation method. It was proposed by the University of Pittsburgh in the 1970s. Decision-making methods for qualitative and quantitative analysis. This method is a hierarchical weight decision-making analysis method proposed by applying network system theory and multi-objective comprehensive evaluation method when studying the subject of "power distribution according to the contribution of various industrial sectors to national welfare" for the US Department of Defense. The AHP method is widely used in social and economic fields, such as energy system analysis, urban planning, economic management, etc. , research evaluation, etc.
该方法体现了人类进行决策思维的基本特征：分解、判断和综合，它集数学方法、层次结构、试验心理学和比较权衡分析于一体,是一种很有效的多指标决策工具。层次分析法中的一个关键原则,是只确定两相邻层次元素之间的关系,在同一层次的相同或不同组中的各个元素是假设没有关系的。This method embodies the basic characteristics of human decision-making thinking: decomposition, judgment and synthesis. It integrates mathematical methods, hierarchical structure, experimental psychology and comparative trade-off analysis. It is a very effective multi-index decision-making tool. A key principle in AHP is to only determine the relationship between elements of two adjacent levels, and the elements in the same or different groups at the same level are assumed to have no relationship.
该方法的优点是通过建立清晰的层次结构分解复杂的问题，用相对标度将人的判断标量化，通过求解判断矩阵得出方案的综合权重，缺点是忽略了人为判断的模糊性，当不确定性和模糊性等因素较多时，易受打分者主观判断的影响。此外，在评价过程中，人们都希望指标值能达到最优，但由于各类指标的优劣差异，其评估结果可能不尽如人意。因此，人们更加关注那些使得综合指标值发生劣化的指标项，进而可从中进一步找到薄弱环节。传统的层次分析方法虽能较好的判断各指标对综合评价结果的贡献度，但是，当需要分析使综合评价结果发生劣化的影响因素和薄弱环节时，其基本模型无法明确获得分析结果，其数理意义也不够清晰，会给分析人员带来一定困扰。The advantage of this method is that it decomposes complex problems by establishing a clear hierarchical structure, scalarizes human judgment with relative scale, and obtains the comprehensive weight of the plan by solving the judgment matrix. The disadvantage is that it ignores the ambiguity of human judgment. When there are many factors such as certainty and ambiguity, it is easily affected by the subjective judgment of the scorer. In addition, in the evaluation process, people hope that the index value can be optimal, but due to the differences in the pros and cons of various indexes, the evaluation results may not be satisfactory. Therefore, people pay more attention to those index items that degrade the comprehensive index value, and then can further find weak links from them. Although the traditional analytic hierarchy process can better judge the contribution of each index to the comprehensive evaluation result, when it is necessary to analyze the influencing factors and weak links that make the comprehensive evaluation result deteriorate, its basic model cannot clearly obtain the analysis results. The mathematical meaning is not clear enough, which will bring some troubles to analysts.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明涉及一种基于层次分析法的评估指标劣化影响分析方法，所述方法包括：The present invention relates to a method for analyzing the impact of evaluation index degradation based on analytic hierarchy process, the method comprising:
步骤S1，使用层次分析法对评估对象进行评价，得到第k层第j个指标的指标评分值rk,j和权重系数αk，j；Step S1, use the AHP to evaluate the evaluation object, and obtain the index score rk,j and the weight coefficient αk,j of the jth index of the kth layer;
步骤S2，定义rk,jαk，j和（R-rk,j）αk，j分别为所述评估对象第k层第j个指标的加权指标值和劣化加权指标值；Step S2, define rk,j αk,j and (Rrk,j )αk,j as the weighted index value and degradation weighted index value of the jth index of the k-th layer of the evaluation object, respectively;
其中，R为第k层第j个指标的指标最优分值；Among them, R is the index optimal score of the index j of the kth layer;
步骤S3，计算不同指标的所述劣化加权指标值，分析所述评估对象的指标劣化影响。Step S3, calculating the degradation weighted indicator values of different indicators, and analyzing the impact of the indicator degradation on the evaluation object.
本发明提供的第一优选实施例中：所述步骤S1还包括使用层次分析法对所述评估对象进行综合评价，得到所述第k层指标的综合评价结果
所述步骤S2中还包括设定综合劣化程度的指标模型为
本发明提供的第二优选实施例中：所述指标最优分值R为满分100分时，对于任一个指标评分值rk,j，（100-rk,j）表示所述指标相对于最优值的劣化程度。In the second preferred embodiment provided by the present invention: when the optimal score R of the index is 100 points, for any index score rk,j , (100-rk,j ) means that the index is relative to The degree of degradation of the optimal value.
本发明提供的第三优选实施例中：所述步骤S3中计算不同指标的劣化加权指标值，分析评估对象的指标劣化影响的方法为：In the third preferred embodiment provided by the present invention: in the step S3, the degradation weighted index values of different indicators are calculated, and the method for analyzing the impact of the index degradation of the evaluation object is as follows:
对所述不同指标的所述劣化加权指标值进行递减排序，同层同类指标的所述劣化加权指标值越大，对所述评估对象的综合指标的劣化影响越大。The degradation weighted index values of the different indicators are sorted in descending order, and the greater the degradation weighted index value of the same index of the same level, the greater the impact on the degradation of the comprehensive index of the evaluation object.
本发明提供的第四优选实施例中：所述方法应用于配电网规划与运行方面的综合评价结果分析，所述步骤S3中分析不同指标对所述评估对象的综合指标的劣化影响后还包括：所述同层同类指标的所述劣化加权指标值越大对应的环节越薄弱，通过改善相对薄弱环节来改变所述评估对象的综合劣评评估结果。In the fourth preferred embodiment provided by the present invention: the method is applied to the analysis of the comprehensive evaluation results of the distribution network planning and operation, and in the step S3, after analyzing the influence of different indicators on the degradation of the comprehensive indicators of the evaluation object, it is returned Including: the greater the degradation weighted index value of the same index of the same layer, the weaker the corresponding link, and the comprehensive inferior evaluation result of the evaluation object is changed by improving the relatively weak link.
本发明提供的第五优选实施例中：所述步骤S3中分析所述评估对象的指标劣化影响对所述相对薄弱环节进行定位和深入分析时还包括：In the fifth preferred embodiment provided by the present invention: in the step S3, analyzing the influence of the index degradation of the evaluation object, positioning and in-depth analysis of the relative weak links also include:
优先对劣化加权指标值和加权指标值均较大对应的相对薄弱环节进行改善，实际改善难度很大或者不具改善操作性的相对薄弱环节跳过不进行改善。Prioritize the improvement of relatively weak links corresponding to relatively large deterioration weighted index values and weighted index values. The relatively weak links that are actually difficult to improve or have no improvement operability are skipped and not improved.
本发明提供的第六优选实施例中：所述步骤S3中根据层次单排序分析每个单项指标对上层指标综合评价结果的劣化影响，分析能够改善所述上层指标综合评价结果的所述相对薄弱环节；根据层次总排序分析所述最底层单项指标对总目标的综合评价结果的劣化影响，分析能够改善总目标的最底层指标对应的所述相对薄弱环节；In the sixth preferred embodiment provided by the present invention: in the step S3, the influence of each individual index on the degradation of the comprehensive evaluation result of the upper-level index is analyzed according to the hierarchical single ranking, and the relative weakness that can improve the comprehensive evaluation result of the upper-level index is analyzed. Links: analyze the degradation impact of the bottom single index on the comprehensive evaluation result of the overall goal according to the overall ranking of the hierarchy, and analyze the relative weak link corresponding to the bottom index that can improve the overall goal;
所述层次单排序是指对于上一层某指标而言，本层次与所述指标有联系的指标的相对重要性的排序值，层次总排序是指所述最底层元素相对于总目标的相对重要性的排序值。The hierarchical single ranking refers to the ranking value of the relative importance of the indicators related to the index at this level for a certain index in the upper layer, and the hierarchical total ranking refers to the relative importance of the bottom element relative to the total target. Sorting value for importance.
本发明提供的一种基于层次分析法的评估指标劣化影响分析方法的有益效果包括：The beneficial effects of a method for analyzing the impact of evaluation index degradation based on the analytic hierarchy process provided by the present invention include:
1、本发明提供的一种基于层次分析法的评估指标劣化影响分析方法，重点考虑指标与指标最优分值之间的差距，并与权重系数相结合，定义rk,jαk，j和（R-rk,j）αk，j分别为指标的加权指标值和劣化加权指标值，作为分析各指标对上层指标的劣化影响的基本依据，对薄弱环节定位更为准确，并且加权指标值和劣化加权指标值的定义基于传统的层次分析法评估模型，理论基础较为成熟，易于理解，便于推广应用，具有较高的实用价值，分析模型具有较广的适用范围，可应用于所有采用层次分析法的综合评价当中。1. A method for analyzing the impact of evaluation index degradation based on the analytic hierarchy process provided by the present invention focuses on the gap between the index and the optimal score of the index, and combines it with the weight coefficient to define rk, j αk, j and (Rrk, j ) αk, j are the weighted index value of the index and the weighted index value of degradation, respectively, as the basic basis for analyzing the impact of each index on the degradation of the upper index, it is more accurate to locate the weak link, and the weighted index value and the definition of deterioration weighted index values are based on the traditional AHP evaluation model, the theoretical basis is relatively mature, easy to understand, easy to popularize and apply, and has high practical value. The analysis model has a wide range of application and can be applied to all adoption levels In the comprehensive evaluation of the analysis method.
2、分析评估对象的指标劣化影响对薄弱环节进行定位和深入分析时，综合考虑很多的实际情况，比如该指标的加权指标值以及该指标对应的环节的实际改善的难易度，使实际操作更具可行性。2. Analysis of the impact of index degradation on the evaluation object When locating and in-depth analysis of weak links, many actual situations are considered comprehensively, such as the weighted index value of the index and the difficulty of actual improvement of the link corresponding to the index, so that the actual operation more feasible.
3、可以根据层次单排序分析每个单项指标对上层指标综合评价结果的劣化影响，分析能够改善上层指标综合评价结果的相对薄弱环节；也可以根据层次总排序分析最底层单项指标对总目标的综合评价结果的劣化影响，分析能够改善总目标的最底层指标对应的相对薄弱环节。3. It is possible to analyze the deterioration effect of each individual index on the comprehensive evaluation results of the upper-level indicators according to the single ranking of the hierarchy, and analyze the relative weak links that can improve the comprehensive evaluation results of the upper-level indicators; it is also possible to analyze the impact of the bottom single item on the overall target according to the total ranking of the hierarchy. Comprehensively evaluate the degradation impact of the results, and analyze the relatively weak links corresponding to the bottom-level indicators that can improve the overall goal.
附图说明Description of drawings
如图1所示为本发明提供的一种基于层次分析法的评估指标劣化影响分析方法的流程图；As shown in Figure 1, it is a flow chart of a method for analyzing the impact of evaluation index degradation based on AHP provided by the present invention;
如图2所示为本发明提供的一种基于层次分析法的评估指标劣化影响分析方法的实施例的流程图；As shown in Figure 2, it is a flowchart of an embodiment of a method for analyzing the impact of evaluation index degradation based on the analytic hierarchy process provided by the present invention;
如图3所示为本发明提供的一组指标的实施例的加权指标值对比图；As shown in Figure 3, it is a weighted index value comparison diagram of an embodiment of a group of indicators provided by the present invention;
如图4所示为本发明提供的一组指标的实施例的劣化加权指标值对比图。As shown in FIG. 4 , it is a comparison chart of degradation weighted index values of an embodiment of a set of indexes provided by the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面根据附图对本发明的具体实施方式作进一步详细说明。The specific implementation manner of the present invention will be described in further detail below according to the accompanying drawings.
本发明提供一种基于层次分析法的评估指标劣化影响分析方法，其方法流程图如图1所示，由图1可知，该方法包括：The present invention provides a method for analyzing the impact of evaluation index degradation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The flow chart of the method is shown in Figure 1. As can be seen from Figure 1, the method includes:
步骤S1，使用层次分析法对评估对象进行评价，得到第k层第j个指标的指标评分值rk,j和权重系数αk，j。Step S1, use the AHP to evaluate the evaluation object, and obtain the index score value rk,j and the weight coefficient αk,j of the jth index in the kth layer.
步骤S2，定义rk,jαk，j和（R-rk,j）αk，j分别为评估对象第k层第j个指标的加权指标值和劣化加权指标值。其中，R为第k层第j个指标的指标最优分值。Step S2, define rk,j αk,j and (Rrk,j )αk,j as the weighted index value and degradation weighted index value of the jth index of the k-th layer of the evaluation object, respectively. Among them, R is the index optimal score of the jth index in the kth layer.
步骤S3，计算不同指标的劣化加权指标值，分析评估对象的指标劣化影响。Step S3, calculating the degradation weighted index values of different indicators, and analyzing the impact of the indicator degradation on the evaluation object.
实施例一：Embodiment one:
本发明提供的一种基于层次分析法的评估指标劣化影响分析方法的实施例一为该评估方法应用于配电网规划与运行方面的综合评价结果分析的实施例，如图二所示为本发明提供的一种基于层次分析法的评估指标劣化影响分析方法的实施例的方法流程图，由图2可知，步骤S1中使用层次分析法对评估对象进行综合评价，得到第k层指标的综合评价结果
当第k层指标为最底层指标时，最底层指标的综合评价结果
步骤S2中还包括设定综合劣化程度的指标模型为
如果设指标最优分值R为满分100分，那么对于任一个指标评分值rk，j而言，（100-rk，j）就表示该项指标相对于最优值的劣化程度。显然，如果所有同层同类指标的指标值rk,j都相等，则对于权重系数αk，j较高的指标，它对上一级综合指标劣化所发挥的负面作用也较大；同样，如果所有同层同类指标的权重系数αk，j都相等，则对于指标值rk,j较低（即（100-rk,j）值较高）的指标，它对上一级综合指标劣化所发挥的负面作用也较大。If the optimal score R of the index is set as a full score of 100 points, then for any index score rk,j , (100-rk,j ) indicates the degree of deterioration of the index relative to the optimal value. Obviously, if all index values rk,j of the same index at the same level are equal, then for the index with higher weight coefficient αk,j , it will play a greater negative effect on the degradation of the comprehensive index at the upper level; similarly, If the weight coefficients αk,j of all indicators of the same type at the same level are equal, then for indicators with lower index values rk,j (that is, higher (100-rk,j ) The negative effect of deterioration is also relatively large.
步骤S3中计算不同指标的劣化加权指标值，分析评估对象的指标劣化影响的方法为：In step S3, the degradation weighted index values of different indicators are calculated, and the method for analyzing the impact of the index degradation of the evaluation object is as follows:
对不同指标的劣化加权指标值进行递减排序，同层同类指标的劣化加权指标值越大，对评估对象的综合指标的劣化所发挥的负面作用也越大，该指标对应的环节越薄弱，具体实施中可以通过改善相对薄弱环节来改变评估对象的综合劣评评估结果，如表一所示为一组指标综合评估结果表：The degradation weighted index values of different indicators are sorted in descending order. The greater the degradation weighted index value of the same index at the same level, the greater the negative effect on the degradation of the comprehensive index of the evaluation object, and the weaker the link corresponding to the index. During the implementation, the comprehensive evaluation results of the evaluation objects can be changed by improving the relatively weak links, as shown in Table 1, which is a table of comprehensive evaluation results of a group of indicators:
表1一组指标综合评估结果Table 1 Comprehensive evaluation results of a group of indicators
图3所示为表1对应的一组指标的加权指标值对比图，图4所示该组指标的劣化加权指标值对比图，对比图3和图4可知，R1、R2、R3和R4的加权指标值相对较大，R1、R4和R8的劣化加权指标值相对较大。R2和R3的加权指标值相对较大但是劣化加权指标值相对较小，对应的不是相对薄弱环节；R1和R4的加权指标值和劣化加权指标值均相对较大，如果得到较大的改善，一方面其劣化影响会显著降低，另一方面其正面影响又会显著加强，此类指标往往是权重较高且指标值相对居中或较低的那些指标项，应是首要关注的指标；R4的加权指标值虽然不是最低的，但它对综合评价劣化的影响却是最大的。Figure 3 shows a comparison chart of weighted index values for a group of indicators corresponding to Table 1, and Figure 4 shows a comparison chart of degradation weighted index values for this group of indicators. Comparing Figure 3 and Figure 4, it can be seen that R1, R2, R3 and R4 The weighted index value is relatively large, and the degradation weighted index values of R1, R4 and R8 are relatively large. The weighted index values of R2 and R3 are relatively large but the degradation weighted index value is relatively small, corresponding to not a relatively weak link; the weighted index values and degradation weighted index values of R1 and R4 are relatively large, if a large improvement is obtained, On the one hand, its deterioration impact will be significantly reduced, and on the other hand, its positive impact will be significantly strengthened. Such indicators are often those with relatively high weight and relatively middle or low index values, and should be the primary indicators of concern; R4 Although the weighted index value is not the lowest, it has the greatest impact on the deterioration of the comprehensive evaluation.
步骤S3中分析评估对象的指标劣化影响对薄弱环节进行定位和深入分析时，可以综合考虑很多实际情况，比如该指标的加权指标值以及该指标对应的环节的实际改善的难易度，对不同指标的劣化加权指标值进行递减排序得到相对薄弱环节后，优先对劣化加权指标值和加权指标值均较大的薄弱环节进行改善，并可忽略劣化加权指标值或加权指标值较小的相对薄弱环节，对某些实际改善难度很大或不具可操作性的相对薄弱环节也可以跳过不进行改善。例如，在对某地区配电网评估后发现，涉及网架改造的若干指标的劣化加权分值都非常低，甚至多数为0，这说明网架改造的劣化影响很小，其相关建设项目可以根据电网的发展适时延后，这一建设计划的修改，可节省电网投资，改善其经济性，且基本不会对总体指标值产生影响。In step S3, when analyzing the impact of index degradation on the evaluation object and performing in-depth analysis on weak links, many actual conditions can be considered comprehensively, such as the weighted index value of the index and the difficulty of actual improvement of the link corresponding to the index. After the relative weak links are obtained by descending sorting of the degradation weighted index values of the indicators, the priority is to improve the weak links with large degradation weighted index values and weighted index values, and the relatively weak links with relatively small degradation weighted index values or small weighted index values can be ignored Links, some relatively weak links that are difficult to actually improve or are not operable can also be skipped and not improved. For example, after evaluating the distribution network in a certain area, it is found that the degradation weighted scores of several indicators related to grid reconstruction are very low, even most of them are 0, which shows that the degradation impact of grid reconstruction is very small, and its related construction projects can According to the timely delay of the development of the power grid, the modification of this construction plan can save the investment of the power grid and improve its economy, and basically will not affect the overall index value.
步骤S3中可以根据层次单排序分析每个单项指标对上层指标综合评价结果的劣化影响，分析能够改善上层指标综合评价结果的相对薄弱环节，也可以根据层次总排序分析最底层单项指标对总目标的综合评价结果的劣化影响，分析能够改善总目标的最底层指标对应的相对薄弱环节。In step S3, the influence of each individual index on the comprehensive evaluation result of the upper-level index can be analyzed according to the single ranking of the hierarchy, and the relative weak link that can improve the comprehensive evaluation result of the upper-level index can be analyzed. The impact of the deterioration of the comprehensive evaluation results, and analyze the relatively weak links corresponding to the bottom-level indicators that can improve the overall goal.
其中，层次单排序是指对于上一层某指标而言，本层次与之有联系的因素的相对重要性的排序值，层次总排序是指最底层元素相对于最高层元素（总目标）的相对重要性的排序值。Among them, single-level ranking refers to the ranking value of the relative importance of factors related to this level for a certain indicator in the previous level, and the total ranking of the level refers to the relative importance of the lowest-level elements relative to the highest-level elements (total target). Sorting value for relative importance.
最后应当说明的是：以上实施例仅用以说明本发明的技术方案而非对其限制，尽管参照上述实施例对本发明进行了详细的说明，所属领域的普通技术人员应当理解：依然可以对本发明的具体实施方式进行修改或者等同替换，而未脱离本发明精神和范围的任何修改或者等同替换，其均应涵盖在本发明的权利要求范围当中。Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit them. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: the present invention can still be Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention shall be covered by the scope of the claims of the present invention.
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