Analytical and discussion papers
Briefing papers
Briefing papers describe our work and explain the material we present. Data available on request.
- Briefing paper No.8: Forecasting potential output – the supply side of the economy17 November 2022 – 1.18 MB
- Briefing paper No.7: Evaluating forecast accuracy10 October 2017 – 325.53 KB
- Briefing paper No.6: Policy costings and our forecast19 March 2014 – 297.11 KB
- Briefing paper No.5: The macroeconomic model9 October 2013 – 769.04 KB
The macroeconomic model is altered slightly at each forecast.Download the latest version here.
- Briefing paper No.4: Historical official forecasts database28 June 2012 – 981.50 KB
We first published the historical official forecasts database in 2012 and it is now updated after each fiscal event.Download the latest version here.
- Briefing paper No.4: How we present uncertainty28 June 2012 – 232.76 KB
- Briefing paper No.3: Forecasting the economy4 October 2011 – 422.06 KB
Much of the content in this paper has now been superseded by theeconomy forecasts in-depth pages.
- Briefing paper No.2: Estimating the output gap21 April 2011 –
- Briefing paper No.1: Forecasting the public finances24 January 2011 – 834.85 KB
Much of the content in this paper has now been superseded by the fiscal forecasts in-depth pages.
Working papers
As part of the OBR work programme we will produce working papers on topics which will inform discussion on our forecasts.Data available on request.
- Working paper No.22: A new UK overlapping generations model10 April 2025 – 559.72 KB
- Working paper No.21: Developments in devolved income tax26 October 2023 – 1.12 MB
- Working paper No.20: A review of welfare policy costings26 October 2023 – 1.39 MB
- Working paper No.19: The OBR's forecast performance - Charts and tables10 August 2023 – 1.83 MB
- Working paper No.19: The OBR's forecast performance10 August 2023 – 478.41 KB
- Working paper No.18: Emissions and our tax forecasts4 May 2023 – 661.62 KB
- Working paper No.17: Evaluating forecast uncertainty with stochastic simulations9 December 2021 – 567.51 KB
- Working paper No.16: Forecasting the balance sheet: Public sector net worth27 October 2021 – 507.11 KB
- Working paper No.15: The evolution of public sector receipts over the past decade23 April 2020 – 459.82 KB
- Working paper No.14: Devolved income tax: forecasting by tax bands28 September 2018 – 384.78 KB
- Working paper No.13: In-year fiscal forecasting and monitoring28 September 2018 – 557.20 KB
- Working paper No.12: Student loans and fiscal illusions - charts and tables17 July 2018 – 864.29 KB
- Working paper No.12: Student loans and fiscal illusions17 July 2018 – 607.20 KB
- Working paper No.11: Evaluation of HMRC anti-avoidance and operational measures - charts and tables7 December 2017 – 365.19 KB
- FOI: Anti-avoidance evaluation supplementary information7 December 2017 – 35.47 KB
- Working paper No.11: Evaluation of HMRC anti-avoidance and operational measures21 September 2017 – 504.41 KB
- Working paper No.10: Forestalling ahead of property tax changes11 October 2016 – 2.20 MB
- Working paper No.9: Fiscal sustainability and public spending on health21 September 2016 – 1.77 MB
- Working paper No.8: Anti-avoidance costings: an evaluation22 January 2016 – 375.30 KB
- Working paper No.7: Crisis and consolidation in the public finances - charts and tables10 September 2014 – 4.06 MB
- Working paper No.7: Crisis and consolidation in the public finances9 September 2014 – 952.99 KB
- Working paper No.6: Forecasting house prices - charts and tables11 July 2014 – 677.46 KB
- Working paper No.6: Forecasting house prices10 July 2014 – 452.05 KB
- Working paper No.5: Output gap measurement: judgement and uncertainty10 July 2014 – 548.12 KB
- Working paper No.4: A small model of the UK economy20 July 2012 – 420.25 KB
- Working paper No.3: Cyclically adjusting the public finances28 June 2012 – 409.70 KB
- Working paper No.2: The long-run difference between RPI and CPI inflation29 November 2011 – 354.62 KB
- Working paper No.1: Estimating the UK's historical output gap29 November 2011 – 537.50 KB
Discussion and occasional papers
The OBR publishes discussion papers to generate debate around key aspects of its work. Our occasional papers are publications that are not part of a wider set of releases.Data available on request.
- Discussion paper No.5: Public investment and potential output: charts and tables10 April 2025 – 2.94 MB
- Public investment and potential output: feedback and developments10 April 2025 – 99.80 KB
- Professor Tony Venables, Comment on OBR Discussion paper No.5, Public investment and potential output30 October 2024 – 263.72 KB
- Discussion paper No.5: Public investment and potential output29 August 2024 – 530.92 KB
- Discussion paper No.4: Next steps for climate change analysis26 October 2023 – 450.51 KB
- Discussion paper No.3: Brexit and the OBR's forecasts11 October 2018 – 1.05 MB
- Discussion paper No.2: What should our Fiscal risks report cover?11 October 2016 – 1.97 MB
- Supplementary information on house price forecast - December 20135 December 2013 – 72.20 KB
- Forecasting Scottish taxes13 March 2012 – 697.93 KB
- Discussion paper No.1: What should we include in the fiscal sustainability report?23 March 2011 – 1.14 MB
- Assessment of the Effect of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Public Finances14 September 2010 –