The following lists the recent preprints posted on EGUsphere with NHESS-related topics, the recent preprints posted in NHESS’s discussion forum, as well as final revised papers published recently in NHESS.
25 Nov 2025
Scaling and exceedance probability of sinkhole collapse in evaporite karst (Dead Sea, Jordan)Hanna Z. Schulten, Robert A. Watson, Djamil Al-Halbouni, and Eoghan P. Holohan
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5280, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Sinkhole collapse can destroy buildings and infrastructure. Probability of collapse of a certain size within a given time frame is key to estimating associated risk. We map and analyse the sizes of >2000 sinkholes formed over the last 40 years on the Dead Sea’s eastern shore. We show that sinkhole sizes are constrained to within a range of c. 1–80 m in diameter (in a log-normal size-frequency relationship), so that probability of a sinkhole collapse of a size outside of that range is very small.
24 Nov 2025
Regional-scale groundwater analysis with dimensionality reductionMárk Somogyvári, Fabio Brill, Mikhail Tsypin, Lisa Rihm, and Tobias Krueger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4613–4628,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4613-2025, 2025
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In this study, we examined regional differences in groundwater behavior in Berlin-Brandenburg. We have developed a novel approach, combining standard groundwater modelling tools such with special data analysis techniques. The presented methodology can help to separate areas with different groundwater behavior from each other, which could be used as a starting point for further analysis.
24 Nov 2025
Ensemble random forest for tropical cyclone trackingPradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Stella Bourdin, Davide Faranda, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4655–4672,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4655-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4655-2025, 2025
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Tracking tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a matter of interest for investigating observed and simulated tropical cyclones. In this study, Random Forest (RF), a machine learning approach, is considered to track TCs. RF associates the TC occurrence or absence with different atmospheric configurations. Compared to trackers found in the literature, it shows similar performance for tracking TCs, better control over false alarms, more flexibility, and reveals key variables for TCs' detection.
24 Nov 2025
Decoupling urban and non-urban landslides for susceptibility mapping in transitional landscapes: a case study from Southwestern Constantine, AlgeriaZakaria Matougui, Yacine Mohamed Daksi, Mehdi Dib, and Chaouki Benabbas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4629–4653,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4629-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4629-2025, 2025
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In a context of urban expansion and a reduction in the available land for construction, preventive studies against landslides are required. Using field surveys, remote sensing and context-specific models, we studied the risk of landslides in an example of a transitional region. Our models reveal the likelihood of slope failure under varying natural and human pressures, guiding better land management to promote sustainable growth. These insights support safer development in fragile landscapes.
24 Nov 2025
Invited perspectives: Reframing Transboundary Flood Vulnerability Through Hydrosocial Systems Thinking: Towards Just and Adaptive GovernanceTahmina Yasmin, Rose Cook, Xilin Xia, and David M. Hannah
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4546, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Absence of basin-wide agreements, limited data-sharing, and the exclusion of local knowledge reinforce vulnerability and undermine resilience in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin. We urge a shift to hydrosocial connectivity – linking water flows, social relations, and governance. This framing reveals risks are shaped by power, politics, and participation. By centring justice, equity, and collaboration, it offers more coordinated approach with adaptive and inclusive transboundary governance outcomes.
24 Nov 2025
Drivers of Flash Flood Frequency and Intensity in the United States: A Quantitative Analysis of Hydrometeorological InteractionsYing Hu, Huan Wu, Yiwen Mei, Zhijun Huang, Aihui Wang, Chaoqun Li, and Bing Sui
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5032, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5032, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Our analysis of United States river data explains why more heavy rain has not led to more flash floods. Only 17.3 % of basins see more frequent events, and 6.5 % see sharper, more intense flash floods. A key finding is that the warming climate counteracts rainfall's impact, reducing potential increases in flood frequency by 3.6 % and intensity by 8.0 % since the 1980s. While national land cover has remained stable, local urbanization remains a crucial factor driving flood risk.
24 Nov 2025
The multi-decadal hazard cascade of a tropical mountain wildfireWilliam Veness, Martha Day, Anthony C. Ross, Yazidhi Bamutaze, Jiayuan Han, Douglas Mulangwa, Andrew Mwesigwa, Emmanuel Ntale, Callist Tindimugaya, Brian Guma, Elisabeth Stephens, and Wouter Buytaert
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5106, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Climate change is causing wildfires to reach higher tropical mountains, where their impacts are largely unknown. We studied a 2012 fire in Uganda's Rwenzori Mountains and found that it triggered major floods, debris flows, landslides, erosion, and pollution. These results show that fires in fire-sensitive tropical mountains can set off enduring hazard cascades, highlighting the need for restoration and dedicated risk management.
24 Nov 2025
A fault-based application to model seismicity rates for seismic hazard assessment in the southern Apennines (Italy)Giulia Alessandrini, Octavi Gómez-Novell, Silvia Castellaro, Michela Giustiniani, and Umberta Tinivella
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4886, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: upcoming, 0 comments)
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We model fault-based seismicity rates (expected number of earthquakes over time): instead of relying on past earthquake records, we calculate these rates by converting the slip rates of active faults into earthquake activity, both for individual faults and for ruptures involving several adjacent faults. Our results show that the latter better match observations and past geological evidence, and highlight the importance of incorporating complex fault interactions into seismic hazard models.
24 Nov 2025
Fault-Controlled Distribution of Pre-seismic Thermal Anomalies: Insights from the Dingri Earthquakes, TibetWanyi Li, Dan Tao, Jiufeng Wang, Xiang Wei, Qianxi Zhang, Yinqian Li, Sirui Li, Huaxiang Qin, and Qifeng Jiang
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5460, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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By integrating STL and RST algorithms on MODIS data, this study detected pronounced, fault-aligned pre-seismic thermal anomalies preceding the Tingri earthquakes in Tibet. Quantitative analyses reveal a near-perfect spatial correlation (>0.99 and >0.95) between anomaly distribution and the Dingmu Co fault, strongly supporting their intrinsic link to fault activity and their potential as intermediate-term earthquake precursors.
21 Nov 2025
Computing extreme storm surges in Europe using neural networksTim H. J. Hermans, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Julius J. M. Busecke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4593–4612,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4593-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4593-2025, 2025
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We studied the performance of different types of neural networks at predicting extreme storm surges. We found that that performance improves when during model training, storm surges that are rarer are given a higher weight than moderate storm surges. Additionally, we found that the performance of some of the neural networks approaches that of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model. This is promising for the future application of neural networks to climate model simulations.
21 Nov 2025
A new framework for the assessment of potential future disasters caused by typhoons using multi-model ensemble experimentsKenshi Hibino, Izuru Takayabu, Hiroaki Kawase, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Yukiko Imada, Tetsuya Takemi, Nobuhito Mori, Takuya Miyashita, Sachie Kanada, Takahiro Sayama, Tomohiro Tanaka, Tsuyoshi Inoue, Yoshiaki Tanaka, Ryota Arai, Satoshi Godo, Masataka Murase, Shunsuke Sakuragi, and Toshiyuki Nakaegawa
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4772, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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An event-based experimental framework is developed to model typhoon disasters by coupling meteorological, river discharge, and storm-surge models. The framework is distinguished by the use of multi-model and multi-initial-condition ensembles. Typhoon Hagibis (2019) intensifies under future warming, leading to greater flooding and storm surges. By broadening prediction uncertainties, the multi-model framework enables more comprehensive and reliable assessments of future typhoon disaster risks.
18 Nov 2025
Flood hazard mapping and disaster prevention recommendations based on detailed topographical analysis in Khovd City, Western MongoliaSerdyanjiv Narangerel, Yasuhiro Suzuki, Tomonori Hasegawa, and Yoshiyuki Takaichi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4563–4576,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4563-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4563-2025, 2025
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This research advances the understanding of flood hazards in Khovd City by integrating and extending previous studies on historical and recent flood events. This study offers critical scientific insights that support the Khovd City Administration and the Emergency Management Department in formulating evidence-based strategies to mitigate flood risks and protect vulnerable populations from flood hazards.
18 Nov 2025
Drought hazard assessment across Sweden's diverse hydro-climatic regimesClaudia Canedo Rosso, Lars Nyberg, and Ilias Pechlivanidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4577–4592,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4577-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4577-2025, 2025
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Severe droughts have increasingly impacted water supply, farming, and forestry in Sweden. This study examines how meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts differ and how they have changed over time and across regions. The results indicate drier conditions in central and south-eastern Sweden, while northern regions show a tendency toward wetter conditions. These findings can inform climate services and support decision-making for drought preparedness and climate adaptation.
18 Nov 2025
Storm surge dynamics in the northern Adriatic Sea: comparing AI emulators with high-resolution numerical simulationsRodrigo Campos-Caba, Paula Camus, Andrea Mazzino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Massimo Tondello, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5313, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We assess the ability of machine learning emulators, from Multivariate Linear Regression to Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to reproduce storm surge dynamics in the northern Adriatic Sea. Using the corrected Mean Absolute Deviation squared (MADc²) loss function, we demonstrate that data-driven models can match high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations in representing extreme surge events with greatly reduced computational cost.
17 Nov 2025
Automated tail-informed threshold selection for extreme coastal sea levelsThomas P. Collings, Callum J. R. Murphy-Barltrop, Conor Murphy, Ivan D. Haigh, Paul D. Bates, and Niall D. Quinn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4545–4562,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4545-2025, 2025
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Determining the threshold above which events are considered extreme is an important consideration for many modelling procedures. We propose an extension of an existing data-driven method for automatic threshold selection. We test our approach on tide gauge records, and show that it outperforms existing techniques. This helps improve estimates of extreme sea levels, and we hope other researchers will use this method for other natural hazards.
14 Nov 2025
Tsunami-Sediment Interactions Amplify Coastal Hazard and Reshape Inundation Dynamics in Tumaco Bay, ColombiaRonald E. Sanchez Escobar, Juan Jose Ferrer, Erick R. Velasco-Reyes, and Erick Mas
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4986, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study shows how tsunamis interacting with coastal sediments intensify flooding risks in Tumaco Bay, Colombia. Using computer simulations, we found that including sediment transport raises water levels, flood depths, and affected areas, while proposed defenses reduce flooding but also reflect waves. These insights underscore the importance of incorporating sediment into tsunami models to design more robust protection and enhance coastal resilience.
14 Nov 2025
Tracing Emotional Evolution along Named Entity Topic Chains: A Mechanistic Study of Chinese Social Media in the 2025 Myanmar EarthquakeChangqi Dong, Kaihang Zhang, and Jida Liu
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4507, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study proposes an emotion–entity coupling framework to model how emotional responses to transboundary disasters are structured and propagated in social media. Using 139,473 Weibo posts on the 2025 Myanmar earthquake, we integrate LLM-based emotion annotation with named entity recognition to build a semantic-affective network. Results reveal distinct emotional pathways shaped by institutional memory, spatial proximity, and narrative structure.
13 Nov 2025
The EAWS matrix, a decision support tool to determine the regional avalanche danger level (Part A): conceptual developmentKarsten Müller, Frank Techel, and Christoph Mitterer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4503–4525,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4503-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4503-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the updated EAWS (European Avalanche Warning Services) Matrix, developed to support consistent avalanche danger assessments across Europe. It links snowpack stability, its frequency, and avalanche size to the five danger levels. Based on expert surveys and operational testing, the Matrix supports expert judgment and aligns with the Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard while addressing known ambiguities in practice.
13 Nov 2025
Assessing atoll island future habitability in the context of climate change using Bayesian networksMirna Badillo-Interiano, Jérémy Rohmer, Gonéri Le Cozannet, and Virginie Duvat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4527–4543,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4527-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4527-2025, 2025
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Small islands face increasing threats from climate change. In this context, exploring new modeling approaches is needed to improve climate risk assessments. We applied Bayesian Networks to assess the risk to future habitability on four atoll islands. The findings show that Bayesian Networks are powerful tools for efficiently assessing climate-related risks by combining expert judgments and confidence levels, providing a comprehensive framework to assess risks in data-limited island settings.
13 Nov 2025
Monitoring the displacement of large alpine rock slope instabilities with L-band SAR interferometric techniquesTazio Strozzi, Nina Jones, Federico Agliardi, Alessandro De Pedrini, Othmar Frey, Philipp Bernhard, Rafael Caduff, Christian Ambrosi, and Andrea Manconi
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5347, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The latest satellite technology with longer wavelength radar improves our ability to detect and monitor large alpine rock slope instabilities. This approach works better than current satellite systems in forested areas and on fast-moving slopes, giving experts more reliable data to understand these major hazards. Our results from three locations in Italy and Switzerland also provide important recommendations for the preparation of future satellite radar missions.
13 Nov 2025
Building-level exposed asset value modelling for GermanyAaron Buhrmann, Cecilia I. Nievas, Nivedita Sairam, James E. Daniell, Heidi Kreibich, and Seth Bryant
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5172, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Our research lays the groundwork for the next generation of disaster risk modelling by improving how building-level value and use are estimated across Germany. By testing multiple data sources and methods, we identify a transparent, adaptable approach that enhances forecasts of damage and recovery—helping protect lives, property, and communities.
12 Nov 2025
The 2022 drought needs to be a turning point for European drought risk managementRiccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel J. Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris E. Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid J. Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4475–4501,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4475-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4475-2025, 2025
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The DitA (Drought in the Anthropocene) network's study on the 2022 European drought reveals growing risks, varied impacts, and fragmented, short-term management. Based on a survey of water managers, it explores risk, impacts, strategies, and their evolution. While challenges persist, signs of improvement show readiness for change. The authors call for a European Drought Directive to unify and guide future drought risk management.
12 Nov 2025
Community-driven natural hazard and physical vulnerability assessment in a disaster-prone urban neighborhoodAlejandro Builes-Jaramillo, Annie E. G. Winson, Emma Bee, Nancy Quirós, Dairo Urán, James Rúa, Luis Alejandro Rivera-Flórez, Camilo Restrepo-Estrada, Ingry Natalia Gómez-Miranda, Claire Dashwood, and João Porto de Albuquerque
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4451–4473,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4451-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4451-2025, 2025
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This study addresses data gaps in urban neighborhoods often excluded from official hazard maps by co-developing a vulnerability assessment framework with community researchers in El Pacífico, Medellín. Through participatory methods, we created detailed building-scale hazard maps, improving community planning and advocacy for public interventions. This approach highlights how local knowledge can enhance risk assessments and support disaster risk reduction in marginalized areas.
12 Nov 2025
Invited perspectives: Towards usable compound event researchKai Kornuber, Emanuele Bevacqua, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wiebke S. Jäger, Pauline Rivoire, Cassandra D. W. Rogers, Fabiola Banfi, Fulden Batibeniz, James Carruthers, Carlo de Michele, Silvia de Angeli, Cristina Deidda, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Andreas H. Fink, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Katharina Küpfer, Patrick Ludwig, Douglas Maraun, Gabriele Messori, Shruti Nath, Fiachra O’Loughlin, Joaquim G. Pinto, Benjamin Poschlod, Alexandre M. Ramos, Colin Raymond, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Deepti Singh, Laura Suarez Gutierrez, Philip J. Ward, and Christopher J. White
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Impacts from extreme weather events are becoming increasingly severe under global warming, in particular when events occur simultaneously or successively. While these complex event combinations are often difficult to analyse as impact data, early warning schemes or modelling frameworks might not be fit for purpose. In this perspective we reflect on the usability of compound event research to bridge the gap between academic research and real-world applications, by formulating a set of guidelines.
12 Nov 2025
Predicting spatio-temporal wildfire propagation with dynamic firebreaksJiahe Zheng, Zhengsen Xu, Rossella Arcucci, Sandy P. Harrison, Lincoln Linlin Xu, and Sibo Cheng
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4007, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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We introduce the first AI model that predicts wildfire spread with the placement of both permanent and temporary firebreaks. Our spatiotemporal model learns from simulation data to capture how fire interacts with changing suppression efforts over time. Our model runs fast enough for near real-time use and performs well across different wildfire events. This approach could lead to better tools for helping decision-makers understand where and when firebreaks are most effective.
12 Nov 2025
Buried and displaced: moving characteristics of building fragments in debris flowsLei Feng and Dongri Song
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5236, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Accurate prediction of the relocated position of buildings (and the trapped victims) within debris-flow and landslide deposits is challenging. We elucidate the complicated physical mechanisms associated with the movement of building fragments within debris flows. A set of analytical models considering the physical mechanisms is further established. These findings provide actionable guidance for post-disaster emergency rescue by enabling positioning of buried structures.
12 Nov 2025
Hybrid forest disturbance classification using Sentinel-1 and inventory data: a case-study for Southeastern USAFranziska Müller, Laura Eifler, Felix Cremer, Pieter Beck, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Ana Bastos
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4880, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Forest health is increasingly threatened, but disturbances like wind damage and insect outbreaks are hard to track. Our Sentinel-1 Disturbance Mapping (S1DM) approach combines satellite radar with survey data, improving detection for wind and bark beetle impacts and often spotting them earlier. Defoliators remain difficult to capture, but this method strengthens monitoring and supports better forest management.
11 Nov 2025
Attribution of the impact of the February 2018 sudden stratospheric warming on mortality in the Nordics and United KingdomPhilip Rupp, Liliana Vázquez Fernández, William J. M. Seviour, and Thomas Birner
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4587, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study examines mortality impacts of sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs). SSWs persistently increase the chance for cold spells in Northern Europe, but their direct socio-economic effects remain poorly quantified. Using ensemble simulations of the 2018 SSW and mortality records, we attribute ca. 750 deaths in the UK and 250 in the Nordics to this event. The strongest impacts emerge from the combination of post-SSW cold anomalies and heightened mortality sensitivity to these anomalies.
11 Nov 2025
Assessment of current and future heat in a large hospital complex based on continuous indoor measurements and climate simulationsKatharina Epp, Markus Sulzer, Daniel Steinmann, Matthias Zeeman, Andreas Matzarakis, and Andreas Christen
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3871, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Indoor heat was continuously monitored in 60 rooms across 11 buildings of a hospital complex using a sensor network measuring physiologically equivalent temperatures. Substantial heat was found in structures built in 1950–1990, in upper-floors and windowless rooms. Climate simulations were coupled with data-driven machine-learning models to predict future indoor heat frequency and intensity. We conclude that widespread adaptation is required to secure hospital operations during hot summers.
11 Nov 2025
Beyond the 100-Year Flood: Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment for King and Pierce Counties under Future Climate ScenariosKees Nederhoff, Kai Parker, and Eric Grossman
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4909, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 2 comments)
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Flooding is a growing risk for communities around Puget Sound, where rising seas and changing rainfall patterns combine with rivers and tides. We used advanced computer models to simulate decades of water levels and river flows to better understand how often and how severely flooding may occur in the future. Our results show that climate change will increase both the frequency and extent of flooding, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation planning.
11 Nov 2025
From Worst-Case Scenarios to Extreme Value Statistics: Local Counterfactuals in Flood Frequency AnalysisPaul Voit, Felix Fauer, and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4951, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Reliable flood estimates are vital for effective flood risk management, yet short observation records often limit accuracy. We present a new approach that adds realistic "what if" flood scenarios from nearby similar catchments. Applied to thousands of small German basins, our method improves flood frequency estimates, reducing uncertainty and supporting more robust planning for extreme events.
11 Nov 2025
Combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability data to predict historical North Atlantic hurricane damageAlexander F. Vessey, Alexander J. Baker, Vernie Marcellin-Honore, and James Michelin
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5161, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Hurricanes are a destructive natural hazard. Saffir–Simpson category is used to convey impact but is not well correlated with losses. We combined hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data to predict losses from North Atlantic hurricanes. Our model significantly reduces errors between predicted and observed losses and is more skilful than hazard-only predictions. We introduced a loss-based scale to link hurricane characteristics to economic impacts to help quantify climate risk and inform policy.
10 Nov 2025
Tracing the evolving actor network: a social network analysis of the 2018 Mayotte crisis in the pressLouise Le Vagueresse, Marion Le Texier, and Maud Helene Devès
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4423–4450,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4423-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4423-2025, 2025
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Using the case study of a seismo-volcanic crisis in a French overseas department and a replicable method, this paper explores what media framing of sources reveals about underlying representations and levels of trust among interviewed stakeholders, the dynamics of their relationships, and specific features related to both the context and the media portrayal. Particular emphasis is placed on the importance of proximity between sources and the communities concerned.
10 Nov 2025
Shaping shallow landslide susceptibility as a function of rainfall eventsMicol Fumagalli, Alberto Previati, Paolo Frattini, and Giovanni B. Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4405–4422,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4405-2025, 2025
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Shallow landslides are mass movements of limited thickness, mainly triggered by extreme rainfalls, that can pose a serious risk to the population. This study uses statistical methods to analyse and simulate the relationship between shallow landslides and rainfalls, showing that in the studied area shallow landslides are modulated by rainfall but controlled by lithology. A new classification method considering the costs associated with a misclassification of the susceptibility is also proposed.
10 Nov 2025
Indirect costs of floods: a case study of highways road usersManuel Contreras-Jara, Tomás Echaveguren, Eduardo Allen, Alondra Chamorro, and José Vargas-Baecheler
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4016, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Floods disrupt roads and bridges, causing delays, higher travel costs and expensive repairs. However, user costs from slower traffic and detours are often ignored. This study integrates flood models, bridge vulnerability, and traffic analysis to estimate these costs. Applied to Chile's Aconcagua Bajo watershed, it considers floods of varying frequencies, road and bridge failures, travel times, and fuel expenses, highlighting the hidden economic burden of flood events.
10 Nov 2025
Composition, frequency and magnitude of future rain-on-snow floods in GermanyChristian Czakay, Larisa Tarasova, and Bodo Ahrens
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3532, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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In this study, we simulated streamflow in German river catchments for climate projections using a deep learning model. Flood-generating processes were identified using explainable artificial intelligence. In the median, the models project mostly less rain-on-snow floods in Germany in the future and an overall lower importance of snowmelt. The average and strongest rain-on-snow floods will have a higher magnitude. The trends found for the individual climate models can vary considerably.
10 Nov 2025
Evaluating the effects of preprocessing, method selection, and hyperparameter tuning on SAR-based flood mapping and water depth estimationJean-Paul Travert, Cédric Goeury, Sébastien Boyaval, Vito Bacchi, and Fabrice Zaoui
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3726, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study presents the impact of various processing methods on flood maps and water depth estimates derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar satellites. The results suggest that the choice of methods and parameters at each processing step has a strong influence on the outputs. This study emphasizes the importance of evaluating the entire processing pipeline to evaluate the uncertainties, that may hinder the capability to calibrate or validate hydrodynamic models.
10 Nov 2025
Multi-level assessment of flood risk perception and flood behaviourRocío Coloma, Vicente Saenger, Felipe Link, and Oscar Link
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4496, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Based on a survey of 1007 residents in four different localities of Chile exposed to river floods, this study builds and applies a framework for assessment of flood risk perception and flood behaviour at the individual, household, neighbourhood and municipality levels. Obtained results suggest that risk communication and risk management strategies should be adapted to focus on the needs of specific neighbourhoods exposed to floods.
10 Nov 2025
Climate and impact attribution of compound flooding induced by tropical cyclone Idai in MozambiqueDoris M. Vertegaal, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Anaïs Couasnon, Natalia Aleksandrova, Tycho Bovenschen, Fernaldi Gradiyanto, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Henrique M. D. Goulart, and Sanne Muis
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4502, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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This study highlights the need to disentangle climate change effects on flood drivers using storyline attribution. Whether the information is presented as change in one or multiple drivers, or as change in hazard or impact, determines the attribution statement. For the compound flooding from tropical cyclone Idai, that hit Mozambique in 2019, we attribute up to 9 % of the flood hazard and 31 % of the damage to climate change. The attribution framework can be applied to other events worldwide.
10 Nov 2025
An ensemble groundwater prediction (EGP) system to forecast groundwater levels in alluvial aquifers in SwitzerlandRaoul A. Collenteur, Konrad Bogner, Massimiliano Zappa, Mario Schirmer, and Christian Moeck
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4653, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Groundwater is vital for drinking water and farming, but recent droughts revealed it is less reliable than once believed. We developed and tested a new system in Switzerland that combines detailed weather forecasts with a groundwater model to anticipate changes weeks in advance. The system often predicted levels up to a month ahead well, though mountain regions proved harder to forecast. These results highlight both the promise and limits of such tools for improving future water planning.
10 Nov 2025
Unveiling the Link Between Extreme Precipitation Events and Flood Disasters in China: From 3D PerspectiveJie Wang, Sixuan Li, Xiaodan Guan, Yongli He, Chenyu Cao, Lulu Lian, and Lihui Zhang
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4728, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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China has suffered substantial economic losses and numerous fatalities due to flood disasters. This study collected historical flood data and investigated flood-causing precipitation events and their triggered flood disasters from a 3D perspective by using the connected component 3D method. Furthermore, this study revealed the complex relationships between flood disasters and key influencing factors. The findings offer new insights into the characteristics of flood disasters.
10 Nov 2025
A Fluvial Flood Risk Model for Quantifying the Benefit of Mitigation Measures under UncertaintyMara Ruf, Amelie Hoffmann, and Daniel Straub
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4875, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We developed a flood risk model that estimates the benefit of mitigation measures under uncertainty. The model is computationally efficient and is embedded in a framework that separates the influence of natural from model-related uncertainties. It allows the comparison of (combined) measures and thus provides a robust basis for decision-making. We applied the flood risk model to the Bavarian Danube, Germany, to assess the effectiveness of a flood detention basin.
07 Nov 2025
Machine learning for automated avalanche terrain exposure scale (ATES) classificationKalin Markov, Andreas Huber, Momchil Panayotov, Christoph Hesselbach, Paula Spannring, Jan-Thomas Fischer, and Michaela Teich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4375–4403,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4375-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4375-2025, 2025
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With growing demand for decision support in recreational and professional use of avalanche terrain, we applied machine learning for automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (AutoATES) mapping in Bulgaria. A Random Forest model, trained on expert-labelled data from the Pirin Mountains, accurately classifies avalanche terrain and reduces reliance on manual expert mapping, offering an effective and scalable solution for large-scale regional AutoATES applications.
07 Nov 2025
Integrating Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) for Enhanced Flood Resilience under a Changing Climate: The Case of the Cologne District, GermanyUdo Nehren, Ali Cara Barrett, Paola Saenz Quiros, and Alexander Fekete
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4888, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The Cologne District in Germany faces frequent flooding from the Rhine and its tributaries. This study maps existing and planned nature-based solutions (NbS) to reduce flood risks. While many NbS exist along the Rhine, more efforts are needed for smaller rivers. The study recommends targeting slopes and urban areas to better manage increased flood risks linked to extreme weather and climate change.
07 Nov 2025
Human Decision-Making in Crowds in a Virtual Flood ScenarioBooloot Arshaghi, Glyn Lawson, Riccardo Briganti, and Peer-Olaf Siebers
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5312, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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This research used Virtual Reality to examine how crowd behaviour and size, floodwater level, and destination clarity affect evacuation decisions during floods. Results show that people often follow crowds in risky situation including flood, but this influence weakens when water-level is extreme. Findings also highlight how social cues shape flood responses and the need to include human behaviour in flood risk models, emergency planning, and public safety interventions.
07 Nov 2025
A thorough review of the May 5, 1990 earthquake (southern Italy): constraints from macroseismology and insights from hydrologyAndrea Antonucci, Corrado Castellano, Luigi Cucci, and Andrea Tertulliani
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5343, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We present a revised and comprehensive macroseismic dataset of the 5 May 1990 earthquake that occurred in southern Italy (Mw 5.77). By re-evaluating all sources, we compiled a new dataset of 1,393 MDPs on both MCS and EMS-98 scales. This revised dataset shows a general decrease in higher intensity values compared to previous assessments. Additionally, we collect extensive observations of seismically-induced hydrological changes.
05 Nov 2025
Identification of nighttime urban flood inundation extent using deep learningJiaquan Wan, Xing Wang, Yannian Cheng, Cuiyan Zhang, Fengchang Xue, Tao Yang, Fei Tong, and Quan J. Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4361–4373,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4361-2025, 2025
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Urban flooding is a growing issue in cities, often disrupting daily life, especially at night, when the extent of flooding is harder to identify. This study introduces NWseg, a new deep learning model designed to identify the extent of urban flooding at night. Using a dataset of 4000 nighttime images, we found that NWseg outperforms existing models in accuracy. This research offers a practical solution for real-time flood monitoring, helping improve urban disaster response and management.
04 Nov 2025
Reevaluating flood protection: disaster risk reduction for urbanized alluvial fansTamir Grodek and Gerardo Benito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4343–4360,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4343-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4343-2025, 2025
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Protecting urbanized alluvial fan canals and levees from flooding requires effective sediment retention measures, such as check dams, terraces, and trees on steep basins. However, their effectiveness declines over time due to sedimentation and aging, increasing the risk of catastrophic breaching floods. To enhance urban resilience, we propose preserving natural mountain basins and allocating about 35 % of the alluvial fan to channel migration and sediment deposition corridors.
04 Nov 2025
INSYDE-content: a synthetic, multi-variable flood damage model for household contentsPradeep Acharya, Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4317–4330,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4317-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4317-2025, 2025
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INSYDE-content is a novel probabilistic model designed to estimate flood damage to household contents. Based on a synthetic “what-if” approach, it integrates multiple input variables describing both exposed items and damage mechanisms, while accounting for uncertainty. The model expands the range of available tools for flood damage assessment by including an often overlooked asset in current literature.
04 Nov 2025
Indonesia tornado database: tornado climatology of IndonesiaIrfans Maulana Firdaus, Takeshi Yamazaki, Muhammad Rais Abdillah, and Edi Riawan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4331–4341,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4331-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4331-2025, 2025
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Tornado is a destructive meteorological phenomenon that can injure, kill people, and damage infrastructure. Indonesia has no tornado database yet. We collected tornado reports from numerous scattered reports between 1800 and 2024 to analyze the climatological tornado for Indonesia, and the results are published in an open repository to catalyze future tornado studies in the tropics.
04 Nov 2025
Hydrological drought prediction and its influencing features analysis based on a machine learning modelMin Li, Yuhang Yao, Zilong Feng, and Ming Ou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4299–4316,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4299-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4299-2025, 2025
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This study proposes an innovative method for predicting drought in the Huaihe River Basin of China using advanced machine learning and interpretable artificial intelligence techniques. By analyzing more than 50 years of data, the model successfully predicted four drought categories with an accuracy of 79.9 %. It used explanatory methods to analyze the contribution of different drought influencing factors, providing key insights for early warning systems and water resources planning.
03 Nov 2025
Assessing effects of nature-based and other municipal adaptation measures on insured heavy rain damagesVylon Ooms, Thijs Endendijk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Peter J. Robinson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4283–4298,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4283-2025, 2025
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Intense rainfall events cause increasingly severe damages to urban areas globally. We use unique insurance claims data to study the effect of nature-based and other adaptation measures on damage. We compare an area in Amsterdam where measures have been implemented to a similar, adjacent area without measures using an innovative method. We find a significant reduction of damage where the adaptation measures were implemented. Urban areas can reduce rain damage by implementing adaptation measures.
03 Nov 2025
Pan-European assessment of coastal flood hazardsCamila Cotrim, Alexandra Toimil, Iñigo J. Losada, Sara Novo, and Iria Suárez
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4892, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Coastal flooding places millions of people and infrastructures at risk. In this study, we introduce a Europe-wide approach to identify areas exposed to coastal flooding. The approach combines information on how water levels change under storm conditions with a model that simulates how flood spreads across the land. We found that using simpler methods, as is often done, can make the results less reliable in places like Belgium and the United Kingdom.
03 Nov 2025
Towards an operational European Drought Impacts Database (EDID)Kerstin Stahl, Kathrin Szillat, Veit Blauhut, Monika Hlavsova, Lauro Rossi, Dario Masante, and Andrea Toreti
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4806, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Drought impact information is important for risk assessment. But, there is little consensus on impact datamonitoring. The European Drought Impacts Database (EDID) combines several existing datasets with the results from new searches for impact information in a structured database with spatial and temporal attributes. Allowing research as well as operational use, its contents show where and when in Europe drought has affected agriculture, water supply, ecosystems, and other sectors.
03 Nov 2025
Exposure of Settlements to Wildfires in a Transboundary Wildland-Urban-Interface Region in Central EuropeEvripidis Avouris, Christopher Marrs, Kristina Beetz, Lucie Kudláčková, Markéta Poděbradská, Miroslav Trnka, and Matthias Forkel
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4859, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Wildfires are increasing in Central Europe. We studied how they could threaten settlements in the Saxon–Czech border region. Using satellite information, local data, and computer simulations, we mapped where fires are most likely and how intense they could be. We tested the model against a destructive fire that occurred in 2022. The results are shared in an interactive web map with the aim of helping residents and agencies improve preparedness and coordinate cross-border disaster response.
31 Oct 2025
Review article: Towards multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators – a review and recommendations for development and implementationChristopher J. White, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Marcello Arosio, Stephanie Buller, YoungHwa Cha, Roxana Ciurean, Julia M. Crummy, Melanie Duncan, Joel Gill, Claire Kennedy, Elisa Nobile, Lara Smale, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4263–4281,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4263-2025, 2025
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Indicators contain observable and measurable characteristics to understand the state of a concept or phenomenon and/or monitor it over time. There have been limited efforts to understand how indicators are being used in multi-hazard and multi-risk contexts. We find most of existing indicators do not include the interactions between hazards or risks. We propose a set of recommendations to enable the development and uptake of multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators.
30 Oct 2025
Kinetic characteristics investigation of the Yingxingping rockslide based on discrete element method combined with discrete fracture networkBo Liu, Yufang Zhang, Xiewen Hu, Jian Li, Kun Yuan, Kun He, Jian Cui, and Zhenhua Yin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4247–4262,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4247-2025, 2025
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This study focused on a catastrophic post-earthquake rockslide in Wenchuan, Southwestern China. On-site investigations and aerial photography were used to ascertained the basic landslides characteristics. A 3D discrete element method with discrete fracture network was employed to assess the dynamic process of the rockslide. The effects of fractures density and friction angle on kinetic characteristics were analyzed, and the role of the check dam as a prevention work has been verified.
30 Oct 2025
Brief communication: 'Multi-hazard-to-health-outcome' (MH2O) pathways: the known, the unknown, and ten most urgent priorities.Harriet Moore, Qiuhua Liang, Lee Bosher, John Atanbori, Mark Gussy, Amogh Madbhatkal, Joe Swift, Jaspreet Phull, Kirsten Guy, Lynsey Collinson, Andy Penny, Maria Athanassiadou, Kaja Milczewska, Ebenezer Amankwaa, Lucy Kennedy, Edward Hanna, Gregory Sutton, Bartholomew Hill, and Colin Hopkirk
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4062, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Climate change will increase the frequency of extreme weather events like floods, droughts and storms. These hazards have impacts on human health. Some hazards, like storms, cause additional hazards like flooding. Little is known about the compound effects of multiple hazards on health, or how impacts vary between communities and areas. We present ten urgent research priorities related to the impact of multiple hazards on health to guide future decision-making towards climate resilience.
29 Oct 2025
Assessment of coastal inundation triggered by multiple drivers in Ca Mau Peninsula, VietnamHung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Viet Dung Nguyen, Hai Dac Do, Hung Duc Pham, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4227–4246,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4227-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4227-2025, 2025
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The paper examines the inundation process in one of the most climate-vulnerable regions of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (The Ca Mau Peninsula), highlighting its key drivers and future impacts. This serves as a critical alert for decision-makers and stakeholders, emphasizing the need for strategic investments in infrastructure, adaptation measures, and impact mitigation to address flood risk.
29 Oct 2025
Wikimpacts 1.0: A new global climate impact database based on automated information extraction from WikipediaNi Li, Wim Thiery, Shorouq Zahra, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Koffi Worou, Murathan Kurfalı, Seppe Lampe, Paul Muñoz, Clare Flynn, Camila Trigoso, Joakim Nivre, Jakob Zscheischler, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4891, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 2 comments)
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Climate extremes threaten society and ecosystems. Understanding impacts is critical, despite open databases like EM-DAT and DesInventar, reliable impact data remain scattered across various text sources. Wikimpacts 1.0, using GPT4o, provides comprehensive socio-economic impact data on 2,928 events from 1034 to 2024. It offers broader storm coverage and finer spatial resolution impact data than EM-DAT, showcasing the potential of natural language processing to enhance climate impact datasets.
28 Oct 2025
Particle and front tracking in experimental and computational avalanche dynamicsMichael Neuhauser, Anselm Köhler, Anna Wirbel, Felix Oesterle, Wolfgang Fellin, Johannes Gerstmayr, Falko Dressler, and Jan-Thomas Fischer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4185–4202,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4185-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4185-2025, 2025
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This study examines how particles move in snow avalanches. The researchers used AvaNodes, a sensor system that tracks particle movement, in combination with radar data and simulations from the open avalanche framework AvaFrame. By comparing measurements and simulations, particle velocity and avalanche front position were matched with high accuracy. The study illustrates how multiple parameter sets can yield appropriate results and highlights the complexity of avalanche simulation.
28 Oct 2025
Understanding extreme-wave hazards on high-energy coasts requires a standardised approach to field data collection: analysis and recommendationsRónadh Cox, Mary C. Bourke, Max Engel, Andrew B. Kennedy, Annie Lau, Serge Suanez, Sarah J. Boulton, Maria Alexandra Oliveira, Raphaël Paris, Dimitra Salmanidou, Michaela Spiske, Wayne Stephenson, Storm Roberts, Adam D. Switzer, Nadia Mhammdi, Niamh D. Cullen, and Masashi Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4203–4226,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4203-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4203-2025, 2025
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Coastal boulder deposits record extreme wave events, both storm and tsunami. Fully understanding hazards as recorded in these deposits requires high-quality data for comparison among sites and over time. We analysed methodologies and constructed a comprehensive set of field measurements to improve data consistency and reproducibility. We aim to help geomorphologists produce of data that can be widely shared and used to build extensive analytic understanding of coastal boulder deposits.
27 Oct 2025
Preface on “Natural hazards' impact on natural and built heritage and infrastructure in urban and rural zones”Maria Bostenaru Dan, Mara Popescu, Orsolya Kegyes-Brassai, Margherita D'Ayala, Cerasella Crăciun, and Animesh Gain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4181–4183,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4181-2025, 2025
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This special issue explores how natural hazards impact built and natural heritage, infrastructure, and the environment. It includes studies using modern tools like satellite data and modelling to assess risks such as avalanches, cyclones, and rockfalls. The research spans Europe and Asia, focusing on resilience strategies for roads, marine ecosystems, and hazard forecasting. Emphasis is placed on interdisciplinary and data-driven approaches.
27 Oct 2025
Signals Without Action: A Value Chain Analysis of Luxembourg’s 2021 Flood DisasterJeff Da Costa, Elizabeth Ebert, David Hoffmann, Hannah Louise Cloke, and Jessica Neumann
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3892, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 4 comments)
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This paper examines why multiple early indicators of the July 2021 floods in Luxembourg did not lead to better anticipatory action. Using a value chain approach and the Waterdrop Model, it identifies how thresholds, procedures, and institutional responsibilities limited the use of available forecast information under uncertainty. The findings show how aligning information with decision processes can improve timely disaster response.
27 Oct 2025
Assessing the predictability of rockfall simulations constrained to simple objective input parametersFrançois Noël and Synnøve Flugekvam Nordang
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4635, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We developed an objective approach that limits parameter guesses when adjusting simulations to predict how far rockfall can propagate away from their cliffs. Its predictions match hundreds of mapped observations from 12 sites. The model produces stable, precise runout predictions, outperforming other methods by two to three times, while keeping errors in predicted bounce heights and speeds low, supporting safer hazard assessments.
24 Oct 2025
Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USATao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Ann M. Youberg, Charles J. Abolt, and Adam L. Atchley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4135–4151,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4135-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4135-2025, 2025
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Wildfires increase flood risk by making it harder for soil to absorb water. We studied how this risk changes over time as the landscape recovers and how it will be affected by more intense rainfall due to climate change. Using a computer model of a burned watershed in Arizona, we found that while the soil's ability to soak up water recovers over a few years, future rainfall is predicted to be so intense that the period of high flood danger will last longer, making severe floods much more common.
24 Oct 2025
Review article: Analysis of sediment disaster risk assessment surveys in Brazil: a critical review and recommendationsThiago D. dos Santos and Taro Uchida
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4153–4180,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4153-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4153-2025, 2025
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Five federal sediment-related disaster risk assessments have been conducted in Brazil, each with distinct objectives and methodologies. To evaluate their effectiveness and identify issues, we analyzed the methods and outcome data and reviewed the status of disaster prevention initiatives based on the assessment results. Our findings revealed persistent problems across all methods. Consequently, we recommend improvements to enhance the methods' efficacy and reliability.
23 Oct 2025
Capture of near-critical debris flows by flexible barriers: an experimental investigationMiao Huo, Stéphane Lambert, Firmin Fontaine, and Guillaume Piton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4115–4134,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4115-2025, 2025
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The presented study mainly describes the loading on a flexible barrier at rest in order that the static component of the force exerted by the dead zone received limited attention up to now. Four interaction modes are identified from a gentle flow stopping to high granular jump and/or overtopping. Interestingly, overflow resulted in a significant increase in the residual load and were almost twice that observed in the absence of overflow.
22 Oct 2025
Unbalanced relationship between flood risk perception and flood preparedness from the perspective of response intention and socio-economic factors: a case study of Nanjing, ChinaYabo Li and Peng Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4071–4088,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4071-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4071-2025, 2025
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This study investigated the potential association between risk perception and flood preparedness in Nanjing by designing a questionnaire survey. Participants exhibited moderate perceptions of flood risk but demonstrated higher levels of flood preparedness. Participants relied more on threat appraisal to perceive risk, but this failed to trigger sufficient coping appraisal. Threat appraisal can transform into flood preparedness under the influence of response intention and socio-economic features.
22 Oct 2025
A pathways analysis dashboard prototype for multi-risk systemsJulius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4089–4113,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4089-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4089-2025, 2025
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This study presents a dashboard to help decision-makers manage risks in a changing climate. Using interactive visualizations, it simplifies complex choices, even with uncertain information. Tested with 54 users of varying expertise, it enabled accurate responses to 71–80 % of questions. Users valued its scenario exploration and detailed data features. While effective, the guidance and set of visualizations could be extended and the prototype could be adapted for broader applications.
22 Oct 2025
Capturing the complete landslide–debris-rich flood continuum for accurate inventory, susceptibility and exposure mapping – lessons from Cyclone IdaiAntoine Dille, Olivier Dewitte, Jente Broeckx, Koen Verbist, Andile Sindiso Dube, Jean Poesen, and Matthias Vanmaercke
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5056, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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In mountain regions, intense rainfall can trigger thousands of landslides within hours. Yet, while most efforts focus on where landslides start, the worst impacts often occur far downstream because slope material can mix with large runoffs. Studying Cyclone Idai’s impacts in eastern Zimbabwe, we found that landslide sources explain only one-fifth of total population exposure, highlighting the need to consider the full landslide–flood continuum to better protect people and plan safer landscapes.
21 Oct 2025
Forecasting agricultural drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought IndicatorsAndrew Schepen, Andrew Bolt, Dorine Bruget, John Carter, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Zvi Hochman, Neal Hughes, Chris Sharman, Peter Tan, and Peter Taylor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4053–4070,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4053-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4053-2025, 2025
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The success of agricultural enterprises is affected by climate variability and other important factors like soil conditions and market prices. We have developed an agricultural drought forecasting system to help drought analysts and policymakers more accurately identify communities that are enduring financial stress. By coupling climate forecasts and agricultural models, we can skillfully predict crop yields and farm profits for the coming seasons, which will support proactive responses.
21 Oct 2025
Brief communication: What do we need to know? Ten questions about climate and water challenges in Berlin-BrandenburgPedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Saskia Arndt, Kei Namba, Márk Somogyvári, Frederik Bart, Fabio Brill, Juan F. Dueñas, Peter Feindt, Daniel Johnson, Nariman Mahmoodi, Christoph Merz, Subham Mukherjee, Katrin Nissen, Eva Nora Paton, Tobias Sauter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Franziska Tügel, Thomas Vogelpohl, Stenka Valentinova Vulova, Behnam Zamani, and Hui Hui Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4043–4051,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4043-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4043-2025, 2025
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As climate change escalates, the Berlin-Brandenburg region faces new challenges. Climate change-induced extreme events are expected to cause new conflicts to emerge and aggravate existing ones. To guide future research, we co-develop a list of key questions on climate and water challenges in the region. Our findings highlight the need for new research approaches. We expect this list to provide a roadmap for actionable knowledge production to address climate and water challenges in the region.
20 Oct 2025
An updated, homogeneous, and declustered earthquake catalog for South Korea and neighboring regionsSoumya Kanti Maiti and Byungmin Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4021–4041,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4021-2025, 2025
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A unified earthquake catalog for South Korea and its surroundings was developed, containing 63 298 events. Four declustering methods, including Gardner–Knopoff, Reasenberg, Uhrhammer, and Marsan, were compared to identify the mainshocks. The catalog offers a reliable database for seismic hazard assessments and seismotectonic studies. It fills gaps in previous studies, providing an up-to-date catalog for accurate seismic risk assessment and future earthquake forecasting in the region.
20 Oct 2025
High-resolution monitoring of the Günz River: Assessing water quality risks for managed aquifer rechargeLea Augustin and Thomas Baumann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4003–4020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4003-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4003-2025, 2025
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River water can be used to refill depleted underground reserves impacted by climate change and human use. In this study, we assessed water quality in Bavaria's Günz River by analyzing watershed risks, using continuous monitoring, and conducting laboratory tests for pollutants. High flows showed strong dilution of almost all parameters. The results indicated that the river is a suitable source for groundwater recharge.
17 Oct 2025
Review article: Rethinking preparedness for coastal compound flooding: insights from a systematic reviewDina Vanessa Gomez Rave, Anna Scolobig, and Manuel del Jesus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3977–4002,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3977-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3977-2025, 2025
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Flood preparedness – how societies anticipate and act before floods – remains incomplete and reactive. This review examines preparedness in the context of compound flooding, floods induced by multiple interacting factors. The paper argues that effective preparation goes beyond risk analyses, flood maps, and infrastructures; it requires integrated planning, insights into human behaviour, and governance to enable swift and coordinated actions.
16 Oct 2025
Debris flow susceptibility in the Jinsha River Basin, China: a Bayesian assessment framework based on geomorphodynamic parametersZhenkui Gu, Xin Yao, and Xuchao Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3957–3975,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3957-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3957-2025, 2025
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Debris flow susceptibility was assessed using erosion intensity, connectivity, and erodibility. A Bayesian model integrated precipitation and surface conditions to evaluate debris flow risks. Quantitative metrics elucidated debris flow likelihood across diverse spatiotemporal scales. The model accurately predicted a recent debris flow event, validating its disaster assessment.
16 Oct 2025
Global Forecasting of Extreme Weather and Insurance Losses Using an LSTM-Based, Audit-Ready FrameworkHongbo Guo, Shuotian Li, Guojun Long, Qiqi Liang, and Haochi Zhang
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4203, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study develops a global forecasting framework that links extreme weather with insurance losses. It uses authoritative worldwide weather records and international insurance data. The framework applies a modern method that can learn from long sequences of data, predicting future losses more accurately than older approaches. It explains how changes in weather and past claims shape risks, giving insurers and regulators clear insights for climate-related impacts.
16 Oct 2025
Flood vulnerability models for damage assessment of artworks and cultural heritage buildingsClaudia De Lucia and Chiara Arrighi
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4297, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 2 comments)
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Flood damage to cultural heritage is often overlooked, yet losses can be severe. A study in Florence found average damages of over €5 million per site in a major flood. By assessing both building and artwork damage, the research shows heritage sites are as more vulnerable than homes. Including them in flood risk planning is essential to protect their cultural and economic value and ensure informed, effective risk management.
16 Oct 2025
Brief communication: First field observations of basal slip velocities in natural debris flowsGeorg Nagl, Maximilian Ender, Felix Klein, Brian McArdell, Stefan Boss, Jordan Aaron, Friedrich Zott, Johannes Hübl, and Roland Kaitna
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4872, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4872, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 2 comments)
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Debris flows, fast-moving mixtures of water, mud, and rocks, are hard to study in nature. Traditional models assume no movement at the base, but experiments suggest sliding can occur. To test this, we installed a monitoring system in an Austrian catchment to measure basal sliding. Data from two events showed the base moves slower than the surface, challenging existing models and highlighting the importance of basal sliding in understanding debris flow behavior.
15 Oct 2025
Seasonal influence on post-fire debris flow likelihood after the 2020 Lake FireJeng-Hann Chong, Adit Ghosh, Brandon T. Page, Gregory Jesmok, Denise V. Berg, Marlene Lopez, Deepshika Upadhyay, David J. Stone, Scott C. Hauswirth, Eric O. Lindsey, and Louis A. Scuderi
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4671, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Post-fire debris flows or mudflows can occur after wildfires during intense rainfalls. Yet, it is unclear how seasonal variation changes the debris flow initiation years after the fire. Our simulations show that it is difficult for debris flows to trigger in dry soil during drier months, even four years after the fire. These results highlight the effect of climatic and seasonal patterns in causing post-fire debris flows.
15 Oct 2025
Leveraging hillslope connectivity for improved large-scale assessments of landslide riskRafael Jan Pablo Schmitt, Shikshita Bhandari, Adrian Vogl, and Odin Marc
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3733, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 3 comments)
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Landslides put humans at risk in the world's mountain regions. Many of these regions are data scarce, and models to evaluate hazards and plan for adaptation do consider for some key aspects of landslides. Here, we propose a simple method that maps both where a landslide can occur and how far debris may travel. Our work was motivated by the need of planners to better site infrastructure and plan for mitigation options, such as reforestation, that can cut risk and protect mountain communities.
15 Oct 2025
Study on Critical Rainfall for Flash Flood Disasters in Small Watersheds of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area: A Case Study of Futian Small Watershed in Wushan County of ChongqingQu Guo, Qin Yang, Jun Kang, Yi Liu, Baogang Yang, Huigen He, Chuan Liu, and Wanhong Gao
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3833, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 2 comments)
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Given the weak river channel regulation & storage in small watersheds and frequent extreme rainfall in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in recent years, the flash flood threat is high. Studying rainfall thresholds for flash floods in these watersheds is crucial. Focusing on Futian watershed in Wushan, this study calculates critical rainfall for varying mountain torrent risks. This study offers references for flash flood early warning, risk zoning, and disaster prevention & mitigation in the area.
15 Oct 2025
Harnessing multi-source hydro-meteorological data for flood modelling in a partially glacierized Himalayan basinDomenico De Santis, Silvia Barbetta, Sumit Sen, Viviana Maggioni, Farhad Bahmanpouri, Ashutosh Sharma, Ankit Agarwal, Sagar Gupta, Francesco Avanzi, and Christian Massari
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4933, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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A conceptual, semi-distributed hydrological model was tailored to simulate high flows in monsoon-dominated, glacier-influenced and flood-prone Himalayan basins. Multi-data calibration using satellite-based glacier mass loss and evapotranspiration estimates improved process realism in data-scarce environments. The proposed modelling approach captured key streamflow features despite significant input uncertainties, proving to be a useful tool for exploring the local hydrological response dynamics.
15 Oct 2025
Impact-based early warning of mass movements – A dynamic spatial modelling approach for the Alpine regionStefan Steger, Raphael Spiekermann, Mateo Moreno, Sebastian Lehner, Katharina Enigl, Alice Crespi, and Matthias Schlögl
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4940, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We developed three space-time models to predict the daily impact potential of mass movements on infrastructure in the Alps, distinguishing slides, flows, and falls. The basin-scale approach accounts for potential process paths and integrates meteorological, geo-environmental, and exposure information. Results demonstrate suitability for impact-based warning. We discuss the broad applicability of the modelling framework to other impacts and beyond the warning context.
14 Oct 2025
How to communicate and educate more effectively on natural risk issues to improve disaster risk management through serious gamesMercedes Vázquez-Vílchez, Rocío Carmona-Molero, and Tania Ouariachi-Peralta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3939–3955,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3939-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3939-2025, 2025
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There is limited evidence on the potential of disaster risk management (DRM) games. This study explores the potential of serious games for improving DRM. We employed a qualitative approach combining content analysis of serious games with an online survey of experts featuring open-ended questions. For the first time, this paper provides a list of recommended features for a DRM game. The results can be of great help for teachers and game designers to improve DRM.
14 Oct 2025
Flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150: sensitivities to urban development, sea level rise, and adaptationCees Oerlemans, Martine van den Boomen, Ties Rijcken, and Matthijs Kok
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3921–3937,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3921-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3921-2025, 2025
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This study analyses flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150, exploring the interplay between rising sea levels, urban development, and flood protection measures. Without measures, flood exposure will increase, especially after 2100. The Maeslant storm surge barrier had the most impact on flood exposure, followed by sea level rise and urban development. Varied exposure levels across neighbourhoods suggest the need for localized adaptation strategies.
14 Oct 2025
Energy and structural evolution process of high-altitude and long-runout landslides induced by a strong earthquakeYunfeng Ge, Bin Hu, Huiming Tang, Xiaodong Fu, and Lei Zhu
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4506, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 3 comments)
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Based on pre-slip recovery and discrete unit simulations, the landslide energy evolution generally follows the conservation law with an increase in dissipated energy. Individual blocks lose energy through collisions, transferring energy forward and enhancing forward mobility. Collisions cause fragmentation, leading to volume expansion and larger sediment surface areas. Simulations are aligned with field observations.
14 Oct 2025
Monitoring Diffuse Volcanic Degassing with Seismic Ambient NoiseHelena Seivane and Martin Schimmel
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5031, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Mantle-derived gases can seep to the surface before a volcanic eruption, but detecting them is difficult when emissions are weak. We used seismic noise from individual stations at Cumbre Vieja Volcano, La Palma, to monitor shallow gas accumulation being modulated by atmospheric cycles. We find clear links between pressure variations and gas release, with a marked increase months before the 2021 eruption, highlighting potential for early warning and hazard assessment.
13 Oct 2025
Indirect assimilation of radar reflectivity data with an adaptive hydrometer retrieval scheme for severe short-term weather forecastsLixin Song, Feifei Shen, Zhixin He, Lu Yang, Dongmei Xu, Aiqing Shu, and Jiajun Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3905–3920,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3905-2025, 2025
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When retrieving hydrometeors from reflectivity, there are two methods to allocate hydrometeor types: temperature-based and background hydrometer-dependent schemes. The temperature-based method divides hydrometeor proportions based on the background temperature, while the other scheme calculates average weights of each hydrometeor in various reflectivity intervals from background fields. The blending scheme adaptively combines these methods and is found to improve precipitation forecast accuracy.
13 Oct 2025
Brief communication: Towards defining the worst-case breach scenarios and potential flood volumes for moraine-dammed lake outburstsAdam Emmer, Ashim Sattar, and Jan Hrebrina
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4136, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are major concern in high mountain regions across the globe and effective disaster risk management requires predictive modelling which needs various input data including potential flood volume. Building on the analysis of breached channels of largest documented GLOFs originating from moraine dam failures, we present new methodology that estimates maximum breach depth and so potential flood volumes of moraine-dammed lake outbursts.
10 Oct 2025
Projections of changes in extreme storm surges for European coasts using statistical downscalingMaialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Angélique Melet, Melisa Menendez, Hector Lobeto, and Jonathan B. Valle-Rodriguez
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3558, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: open, 2 comments)
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We applied a fast statistical model to estimate future extreme storm surges in Europe using data from 17 climate models – about twice as many as in past studies. Results show robust regional patterns – decreases in the Mediterranean and Moroccan coast, increases in the Irish Sea and Gulf of Finland – with high uncertainty in other areas. Out results increase our knowledge on future storm surge uncertainties, needed for informed coastal planning.
09 Oct 2025
Future intensification of compound and consecutive drought and heatwave risks in EuropeSamuel Jonson Sutanto, Confidence Duku, Merve Gülveren, Rutger Dankers, and Spyridon Paparrizos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3879–3895,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3879-2025, 2025
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Drought and heatwave risks in Europe will worsen due to climate change, especially when they occur together or successively. Our study shows that both events will become more frequent and severe across Europe, with even greater increases under high-emission scenarios. In Germany, drought-related economic losses may double, and heatwave deaths could rise ninefold by 2100. These findings stress the urgent need for climate action to reduce future impacts.
09 Oct 2025
Brief communication: Depth-averaging of 3D depth-resolved MPM simulation results of geophysical flows for GIS visualizationHervé Vicari, Michael Lukas Kyburz, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3904,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3897-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3897-2025, 2025
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Advanced 3D numerical models can simulate alpine mass movements at the slope scale, but their use in natural hazard mapping remains challenging. We present a tool that converts 3D simulation results into 2D maps, making them more accessible and useful for hazard assessment and mitigation. Applied to an ice avalanche simulated with the Material Point Method, it reveals key features such as slope-normal velocities and flow detachment from terrain, which are often overlooked in simpler models.
08 Oct 2025
Could seismo-volcanic catalogs be improved or created using weakly supervised approaches with pre-trained systems?Manuel Titos, Carmen Benítez, Luca D'Auria, Milad Kowsari, and Jesús Miguel Ibáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3827–3851,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3827-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3827-2025, 2025
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Developing seismo-volcanic monitoring tools is crucial for volcanic observatories. Our study reviews current methods using transfer learning techniques and finds that while these systems identify nearly 90 % of seismic events, they miss other important volcanic data due to the catalog-learning bias. We propose a weakly supervised technique to reduce bias and uncover new volcanic information. This method can improve existing databases and efficiently create new ones using machine learning.
08 Oct 2025
Insights into tectonic zonation models from the clustering analysis of seismicity in southern and south-eastern SpainDavid Montiel-López, Antonella Peresan, Elisa Varini, and Sergio Molina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3853–3878,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3853-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3853-2025, 2025
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South and south-eastern Spain has the highest seismicity in the country, but inconsistent fault data limit its use in seismic hazard assessment. This study applies the nearest-neighbour (NN) algorithm and graph theory to analyse clustering patterns. Two regions (western and eastern) with higher and lower (respectively) clustering complexities are identified. The results suggest alternative seismic zonation models, which could improve seismic hazard assessment.
07 Oct 2025
The effect of community resilience and disaster risk management cycle stages on morbi-mortality following floods: an empirical assessmentRaquel Guimaraes, Reinhard Mechler, Stefan Velev, and Dipesh Chapagain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3803–3826,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3803-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3803-2025, 2025
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This study examines how forms of resilience capital and disaster risk management shape health outcomes after floods. Using data from 66 communities across seven Global South countries, we find that preparedness consistently reduces both injuries and deaths. Social and human capital also help lower injury rates. By combining measures of resilience and disaster risk management, the study offers new insights into how community-level capacities influence post-flood health outcomes.
06 Oct 2025
Predictive understanding of socioeconomic flood impact in data-scarce regions based on channel properties and storm characteristics: application in High Mountain Asia (HMA)Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Wilmalis Rodriguez, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Binghao Lu, Dongjin Song, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3759–3778,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3759-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3759-2025, 2025
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This study comprehends and predicts the socioeconomic effects of floods in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. We proposed a machine learning strategy for mapping socioeconomic flood damage. We predicted the life year index (LYI), which quantifies the financial cost and loss of life caused by floods, using variables including climate, geomorphology, and population. The study's overall goal is to offer useful information on flood susceptibility and subsequent risk mapping in the HMA region.
06 Oct 2025
Assessing economic impacts of future GLOFs in Nepal's Everest region under different SSP scenarios using three-dimensional simulationsWilhelm Furian and Tobias Sauter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3779–3802,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3779-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3779-2025, 2025
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) continue to threaten high-mountain communities in Nepal. We simulate potential GLOF events from five glacial lakes in the Everest region during the 21st century using a 3D flood model and several breach and SSP scenarios. Large GLOFs could extend over 100 km and inundate 80 to 100 km of roads/trails, 735 to 1989 houses and 0.85 to 3.52 km2 of agricultural land. The results help to assess the changing GLOF impacts and support more accurate risk assessments.
06 Oct 2025
MitigatingMazuku Hazards: Implementation and Effectiveness of Local Dry‑Gas Degassing Measures in the Goma Area (Virunga Volcanic Province)Blaise Mafuko-Nyandwi
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4497, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS(discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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This paper studies how households in Goma (East DRC) respond tomazuku – invisible, odourless carbon dioxide gas that accumulates in depressions. Surveys and interviews show that resource-intensive measures are adopted only by those who can afford them, while awareness measures are valued by all. The findings highlight that involving communities in designing risk mitigation that match their economic realities is essential.