Question A:
Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public R&D spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private R&D spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public medical research spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private medical research spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen | Imperial College London | Uncertain | 5 | Bio/Vote History |
It depends significantly on the country and what exactly the money would be spent on in both public and private cases. | ||||
 Pol Antras | Harvard | Uncertain | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
 Timothy J. Besley | LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
 Olivier Blanchard | Peterson Institute | No Opinion | Bio/Vote History | |
 Nicholas Bloom | Stanford | Agree | 10 | Bio/Vote History |
 Richard William Blundell | University College London | Agree | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré | Paris School of Economics | Agree | 7 | Bio/Vote History |
 Elena Carletti | Bocconi | Uncertain | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
 Jean-Pierre Danthine | Paris School of Economics | Uncertain | 2 | Bio/Vote History |
 Paul De Grauwe | LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
 Jan Eeckhout | UPF Barcelona | Uncertain | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
 Ernst Fehr | Universität Zurich | Uncertain | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
 Xavier Freixas | Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln | Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Uncertain | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
 Jordi Galí | Barcelona GSE | Agree | 7 | Bio/Vote History |
 Francesco Giavazzi | Bocconi | Disagree | 7 | Bio/Vote History |
 Rachel Griffith | University of Manchester | Strongly Agree | 10 | Bio/Vote History |
 Veronica Guerrieri | Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
 Luigi Guiso | Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Disagree | 8 | Bio/Vote History |
efficiency of public spending in R&D is doubtful | ||||
 Patrick Honohan | Trinity College Dublin | No Opinion | Bio/Vote History | |
 Beata Javorcik | University of Oxford | Agree | 7 | Bio/Vote History |
 Henrik Kleven | Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
 Jan Pieter Krahnen | Goethe University Frankfurt | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
I believe in the direct plus indirect benefit of basic research, which is more likely to be public rather than private R&D. | ||||
 Botond Kőszegi | Central European University | Agree | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
 Eliana La Ferrara | Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
 Christian Leuz | Chicago Booth | Uncertain | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
Key Q: Is public RD complement or substitute? Evidence weakly favors former, esp @ higher aggregation & more general invstm. Not conclusive. -see background information here -see background information here | ||||
 Thierry Mayer | Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
 Costas Meghir | Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
 Peter Neary | Oxford | Agree | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
In principle publicly funding R&D can respond better to social priorities and internalize spillovers. Doing so in practice is a challenge -see background information here | ||||
 Kevin O'Rourke | Oxford | Uncertain | 10 | Bio/Vote History |
 Marco Pagano | Università di Napoli Federico II | Agree | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
 Lubos Pastor | Chicago Booth | Uncertain | 2 | Bio/Vote History |
 Torsten Persson | Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
 Christopher Pissarides | London School of Economics and Political Science | Uncertain | 1 | Bio/Vote History |
 Richard Portes | London Business School | Agree | 5 | Bio/Vote History |
 Canice Prendergast | Chicago Booth | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
 Lucrezia Reichlin | London Business School | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
 Rafael Repullo | CEMFI | Strongly Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
 Hélène Rey | London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
 Antoinette Schoar | MIT | Uncertain | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
 Daniel Sturm | London School of Economics | No Opinion | Bio/Vote History | |
 John Van Reenen | LSE | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
 John Vickers | Oxford | Uncertain | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
Public R&D might well be better directed but if near optimal to start with, private R&D externalities could do more good at the margin | ||||
 Hans-Joachim Voth | University of Zurich | Agree | 8 | Bio/Vote History |
 Beatrice Weder di Mauro | The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
 Karl Whelan | University College Dublin | Agree | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
Not an easy question. Private R&D more likely to spent in zero-sum competitions for market share and establishing dominant market positions. | ||||
 Charles Wyplosz | The Graduate Institute Geneva | Uncertain | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
It depends on what public "investment" consists of, even with negative interest rates | ||||
 Fabrizio Zilibotti | Yale University | Disagree | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Franklin Allen | Imperial College London | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
Private research tends to spent on rich world lifestyle medical problems while public research can focus on deadly diseases like TB. | ||||
Pol Antras | Harvard | Uncertain | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
Timothy J. Besley | LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
Olivier Blanchard | Peterson Institute | No Opinion | Bio/Vote History | |
Nicholas Bloom | Stanford | Strongly Agree | 10 | Bio/Vote History |
Richard William Blundell | University College London | Agree | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré | Paris School of Economics | Agree | 7 | Bio/Vote History |
Elena Carletti | Bocconi | Uncertain | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
Jean-Pierre Danthine | Paris School of Economics | Uncertain | 2 | Bio/Vote History |
Stronger public regulation (e.g. on pricing and accounting transparency) with private investment may be a better combination | ||||
Paul De Grauwe | LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
Jan Eeckhout | UPF Barcelona | Uncertain | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
Ernst Fehr | Universität Zurich | Uncertain | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
Xavier Freixas | Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln | Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Uncertain | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
Jordi Galí | Barcelona GSE | Strongly Agree | 5 | Bio/Vote History |
Francesco Giavazzi | Bocconi | Agree | 5 | Bio/Vote History |
Rachel Griffith | University of Manchester | Strongly Agree | 10 | Bio/Vote History |
Veronica Guerrieri | Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
Luigi Guiso | Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Agree | 7 | Bio/Vote History |
fundamental medical research in probably better curried out at public centers | ||||
Patrick Honohan | Trinity College Dublin | No Opinion | Bio/Vote History | |
Beata Javorcik | University of Oxford | Agree | 8 | Bio/Vote History |
Henrik Kleven | Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
Jan Pieter Krahnen | Goethe University Frankfurt | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
Public R&D may have positive second round effects in the form of private R&D, whereas the opposite is less likely to happen. | ||||
Botond Kőszegi | Central European University | Agree | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
Eliana La Ferrara | Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
Christian Leuz | Chicago Booth | Uncertain | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
Again, evidence tends to favor complementarity, but difficult to measure. Complementarity appears stronger for basic research. -see background information here -see background information here | ||||
Thierry Mayer | Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
Costas Meghir | Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
Peter Neary | Oxford | Agree | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
The same superiority in principle, and problems of implementation in practive, arise as for (A) | ||||
Kevin O'Rourke | Oxford | Uncertain | 10 | Bio/Vote History |
Marco Pagano | Università di Napoli Federico II | Agree | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
Lubos Pastor | Chicago Booth | Uncertain | 2 | Bio/Vote History |
Torsten Persson | Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
Christopher Pissarides | London School of Economics and Political Science | Uncertain | 1 | Bio/Vote History |
Richard Portes | London Business School | Strongly Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
Canice Prendergast | Chicago Booth | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
Lucrezia Reichlin | London Business School | Agree | 5 | Bio/Vote History |
Rafael Repullo | CEMFI | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
Hélène Rey | London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
Antoinette Schoar | MIT | Uncertain | 5 | Bio/Vote History |
Daniel Sturm | London School of Economics | No Opinion | Bio/Vote History | |
John Van Reenen | LSE | Agree | 6 | Bio/Vote History |
John Vickers | Oxford | Uncertain | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
Hans-Joachim Voth | University of Zurich | Agree | 8 | Bio/Vote History |
Beatrice Weder di Mauro | The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
Karl Whelan | University College Dublin | Agree | 4 | Bio/Vote History |
Similarly, much of the benefit of private medical R&D goes to profits made by drug producers. | ||||
Charles Wyplosz | The Graduate Institute Geneva | Uncertain | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
I have no idea of the ROI of each channel | ||||
Fabrizio Zilibotti | Yale University | Agree | 3 | Bio/Vote History |
