No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point

Jan Nitzbon^*, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Mehriban Aliyeva, Sarah E. Chadburn, Guido Grosse, Sebastian Laboor, Hanna Lee, Gerrit Lohmann, Norman J. Steinert, Simone M. Stuenzi, Martin Werner, Sebastian Westermann,Moritz Langer

^*Corresponding author for this work

Earth and Climate

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Abstract

Arctic permafrost, the largest non-seasonal component of Earth’s cryosphere, contains a substantial climate-sensitive carbon pool. The existence of a global tipping point, a warming threshold beyond which permafrost thaw would accelerate and become self-perpetuating, remains debated. Here we provide an integrative Perspective on this question, suggesting that despite several permafrost-thaw feedbacks driving rapid thaw and irreversible ground-ice loss at local to regional scales, the accumulated response of Arctic permafrost to climate warming remains quasilinear. We argue that in the absence of a global tipping point there is no safety margin within which permafrost loss would be acceptable. Instead, each increment of global warming subjects more land areas underlain by permafrost to thaw, causing detrimental local impacts and global feedbacks.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	573-585
Number of pages	13
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	14
Issue number	6
Early online date	3 Jun 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
Publication status	Published -Jun 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Springer Nature Limited 2024.

Funding

J.N., T.S.v.D. and M.L. acknowledge funding through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research project PermaRisk (grant no. 01LN1709A). J.N. acknowledges funding through the AWI INSPIRES programme. G.G. was supported by the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 project Arctic Passion (grant no. 101003472) and the ESA CCI+ Permafrost initiative. S.M.S. acknowledges funding through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research project MOMENT (grant no. 03F0931B). We gratefully acknowledge the creation of illustrations by Y. Nowak (AWI Communication and Media).

Funders	Funder number
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung	01LN1709A
European Union’s Horizon 2020 project Arctic Passion	101003472
European Space Agency	03F0931B
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	101003472

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10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4

No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping pointFinal published version, 3.35 MBLicence:Article 25fa Dutch Copyright Act

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title = "No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point",

abstract = "Arctic permafrost, the largest non-seasonal component of Earth{\textquoteright}s cryosphere, contains a substantial climate-sensitive carbon pool. The existence of a global tipping point, a warming threshold beyond which permafrost thaw would accelerate and become self-perpetuating, remains debated. Here we provide an integrative Perspective on this question, suggesting that despite several permafrost-thaw feedbacks driving rapid thaw and irreversible ground-ice loss at local to regional scales, the accumulated response of Arctic permafrost to climate warming remains quasilinear. We argue that in the absence of a global tipping point there is no safety margin within which permafrost loss would be acceptable. Instead, each increment of global warming subjects more land areas underlain by permafrost to thaw, causing detrimental local impacts and global feedbacks.",

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AU - Grosse, Guido

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AU - Lee, Hanna

AU - Lohmann, Gerrit

AU - Steinert, Norman J.

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AU - Werner, Martin

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