• U.S. Foreign Policy
• Economics
• Nosmot Gbadamosi

Welcome toForeign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: South Africa’s government endorses anew energy policy, Nigerians protest the detention of anIgbo secessionist leader, and Kenyans remember former Prime MinisterRaila Odinga.

Welcome toForeign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: South Africa’s government endorses anew energy policy, Nigerians protest the detention of anIgbo secessionist leader, and Kenyans remember former Prime MinisterRaila Odinga.

South Africa’s New Energy Policy

On Sunday, South Africa’s government unveiled an energy policy that aims to cut the country’s dependence on coal and end rolling blackouts, both of which have hampered economic growth for more than a decade.

Years of underinvestment in an aging fleet of coal-fired plants, which provide more than80 percent of South Africa’s electricity, andsystematic corruption within state utility company Eskom have led to electricity shortages. Eskom generates around90 percent of the country’s electricity.

The revised Integrated Resource Plan would see South Africa invest around $127 billion in energy infrastructure by 2039, particularly in nuclear power and natural gas. The policy aims for nuclear and gas combined to account for 16 percent of total power generation, compared toaround 4 percent at present.

South Africa currently has twonuclear reactors and plans to add more than5,200 megawatts of extra capacity. Although the countrysources much of its natural gas from Mozambique, it is looking todevelop its own gas fields, too.

The plan does not foresee abandoning coal entirely, but rather making it “clean”—acontroversial idea that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government first floated in 2023. So-calledclean coal involves removing pollutants from coal-fired plants before they enter the atmosphere, such as through carbon capture. Critics argue that the technology is unproven and that capture rates are low.

South African Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said coal would drop from 58 percent to 27 percent of the country’s energy mix over the next 15 years. Wind would increase from around 8 percent to 24 percent, and solar from around 10 percent to 18 percent, he said.

“We are going to get cleaner,” Ramokgopasaid, adding that a clean coal plant would be constructed by 2030 using newer technology that is less polluting. “We are not abandoning coal. We don’t have a coal problem, we have an emission problem.”

South Africa is Africa’s largest greenhouse gas emitter; its decision to add gas to its energy mix and not phase out coal follows a global trend in which green energy adoption has slowed since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January. During Trump’s second term, the United States hasgutted investments in clean energy both at home and abroad.

Those moves includenixing the Just Energy Transition Partnership—a project that U.S. President Joe Biden launched in 2021 alongside G-7 and European partners to help South Africa, Indonesia, and Vietnamshift away from coal. The partnership included $56 million in grants and $1 billion in commercial loans to aid South Africa’s transition from coal.

Some analysts argue that the U.S. pivot toward oil and gas under Trump frees African countries fromunrealistic renewable energy goals. “Whatever else one thinks of it, the Trump administration appears, to its credit, determined to put an end to policies that restrict the development of Africa’s energy resources,” Ted Nordhaus and Vijaya Ramachandranwrote inForeign Policy in May.

Moving forward without U.S. support is easier said than done, however. In the aftermath of Trump’s funding cuts, it’s unclear how South Africa will attract the investments that it needs to push through its energy transition.

To date, the South African government has secured around$13 billion toward energy transition projects, including some investments from theEuropean Union. But there’s still a long way to go before it obtains the $127 billion needed for the Integrated Resource Plan. Eskom, meanwhile, isabout $21.5 billion in debt—though improved maintenance of its power stations hasrecently allowed it to turn a profit.

Even if funding for new energy projects is secured, domestic resistance could prove an obstacle. Local advocates and courts have pushed back against the South African government’s choice to adopt fossil fuels such as gas.

In September, South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appealblocked Eskom’s plans to build a 3,000-megawatt gas-fired power plant due to a lack of public participation in the environmental approval process. In 2017, a court similarlysquashed a controversial agreement to hire Russia’s state-owned nuclear power company, Rosatom, in a $76 billion deal to build plants in South Africa.

Despite that ruling, South African Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe has said he is open to new bids from Russia as South Africaconsiders nuclear power expansion. “If they are the best in terms of the offer on the table, we’ll take any [country],” hetold Reuters in February.

The Week Ahead

Saturday, Oct. 25: Ivory Coast holds a presidential election.

Tuesday, Oct. 28: The United Nations Security Council discusses its mission in the Central African Republic.

Friday, Oct. 31: The U.N. Security Council adopts a new mandate for its peacekeeping mission in Western Sahara.

What We’re Watching

Igbo separatists protest. Demonstratorsdisrupted major roads in Nigeria’s capital of Abuja on Monday over the long detention of Igbo separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu on terrorism charges. Kanu leads the banned Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) movement, which advocates for an independent state for Igbo people.

Kanu has been awaiting trial since 2021, when he wasillegally extradited from Kenya. The case underscores how the legacy of Nigeria’s 1966 coup, staged by mostly Christian Igboofficers, still taints politics. What followed was a self-declared Biafran state and a civil war in whichover 1 million people were killed. Since then, Nigeria has never elected an Igbo president.

IPOB says Igbo people face discrimination in Nigeria. Its armed wing, the Eastern Security Network, has carried out scores ofdeadly attacks on Nigerian Army and election staff. IPOB members living overseas have used social media to incitehatred and violence against the group’s critics.

The Nigerian government hasaccused IPOB oflobbying Republican lawmakers in the United States with claims that there are large-scale massacres of Christians in Nigeria and of killing some members of the Igbo community whodefy IPOB’s orders not to vote in elections. However, Abuja’srights abuses in cracking down on secessionists have only strengthened the group.

“IPOB is not morally or politically equivalent to a jihadist sect, but the danger of creating a martyr and radicalizing the movement is very much there—and not just in Biafra,” Ope Adetayowrote inForeign Policy in 2021.

Morocco’s Gen Z uprising. As young people demonstrated across the country, Morocco’s government said on Sunday that it will allocate$15 billion to education and health in its 2026 budget. If implemented, the pledge would amount to a 16 percent funding increase from last year. On Saturday, protesterscalled for an end to corruption, better public services, and the sacking of Morocco’s billionaire prime minister, Aziz Akhannouch.

Although Morocco is experiencing economic growth, that has not translated into jobs for its youth: In the last decade, the country’s working-age population has increased by more than 10 percent, yet employment has increased by only1.5 percent, according to the World Bank.

Liberia-U.S. talks. Liberian Foreign Minister Sara Beysolow Nyanti and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubioheld talks on cooperating in Liberia’s critical minerals sector, the U.S. State Department said on Friday.

The United States has sought to strengthen its access to critical minerals amid competition with China. The talks with Liberia are part of U.S. efforts to build on an earlier deal with the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Liberian President Joseph Boakai was among five African leaders invited to alunch at the White House with U.S. President Donald Trump in July. Liberia is rich in lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel, and other rare earth minerals.

Sudan banking case. Last Friday, a U.S. federal court in New York ordered France’s largest bank, BNP Paribas, to pay$20.5 million in damages to three Sudanese refugees over its role in financing the Sudanese government under former President Omar al-Bashir.

The International Criminal Court charged Bashir with genocide and crimes against humanity before he was deposed in a 2019 coup. The U.S. courtverdict could affect a wider class-action suit against the bank. BNP Paribas said it intends to appeal the verdict.

U.S. refugee overhaul. The Trump administration is looking to reform the U.S. refugee program to favor white South Africans and Europeans persecuted for opposing migration, according to government documents seen by theNew York Times. The United States is reportedly looking at an annual refugee cap of 7,500 people.

So far,around 100 white South Africans have entered the United States as refugees, and8,000more are reportedly in the process of applying for refugee status.

What We’re Reading

Kenya’s enduring opposition leader. Former Kenyan Prime MinisterRaila Odinga died on Oct. 15 at the age of 80. IntheElephant, Justin Willis, Gabrielle Lynch, Karuti Kanyinga, and Nic Cheeseman recount a figure who significantly changed Kenyan politics despite losing a presidential campaign five times.

“His absence will generate a political vacuum that other leaders will struggle to fill. [President William] Ruto was banking on Odinga’s support to win the 2027 elections. He will now have to work harder to put together a winning coalition,” the authors write.

South Africa’s anti-migrant movement. Xenophobia against people from other African countries has been a growing problem in South Africa for several years. Forthe BBC, Mpho Lakaje reports on Operation Dudula, an anti-immigrant movement forcibly stopping foreigners from accessing health care. (In Zulu,dudula means “to remove something by force.”)

“They check identity cards and stop anyone who is not South African from entering” hospitals and clinics, Lakaje writes. “Despite some arrests, the authorities seem unable to prevent the pickets.”

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