ESD Ideas
17 Mar 2025
ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision makingAndrew D. King, Nerilie J. Abram, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-903, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support decision making processes. Current modelling efforts are insufficient, partly due to limited simulation lengths. We propose a framework for 1000-year-long simulations that attempts to minimise computing resources by leveraging existing simulations. This will ultimately increase understanding of the implications of current climate policies for the Earth System over coming decades and centuries.
15 Oct 2024
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot mattersPaul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD(discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.
25 Jul 2024
| Highlight paper
ESD Ideas: Exoplanet, origins of life and biosphere researchers offer a perspective fundamental to ensuring humanity's futureDaniel Duzdevich, Arwen E. Nicholson, and Raphaëlle D. Haywood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 929–932,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024, 2024
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Scientists exploring the histories of planets and life are uniquely positioned to communicate a perspective that is fundamental to our survival: humanity is wholly embedded in Earth and its biosphere. There is no escaping our planet and its history. Only policies that build on this perspective will contribute to a flourishing future for humanity. We offer a few brief glimpses of this cosmic perspective and call on our colleagues to acknowledge the powerful stories emanating from their work.
Chief editor
This paper provides a powerful viewpoint on the systemic threats posed by human-induced global change. It does so by highlighting the deep mutual interdependence of the Earth with its biosphere, and combines this with an astronomical perspective on the lack of suitable alternative planets should our own one become inhospitable.
25 Jul 2024
ESD Ideas: Near real-time preliminary detection of carbon dioxide source and sink areas using a Laplacian filterYana Savytska, Viktor Smolii, and Nils Weitzel
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1981, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD(discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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In recent decades, we have witnessed abnormally hot summers and frequent weather extremes globally. These are clear signs of global warming and climate change. A constant increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major driver of these changes. We propose an algorithm for near-real-time detection of terrestrial areas with CO2 sources and sinks. This algorithm could aid in developing new methods of natural CO2 reduction and exploring ecosystem responses to disturbances.
12 Jul 2024
ESD Ideas: Positive tipping points towards global regenerative systemsJ. David Tàbara
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 853–857,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-853-2024, 2024
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Fast, self-propelling positive synergies between improvements in social and biophysical systems' conditions are necessary to ensure a safe and just world for possibly 10 billion people by 2050. A regenerative view of human–environmental interactions in science, policy, education, and across many individual and organisational practices can contribute to achieving such a future – a global net-positive tipping point for people and the planet.