Theworse-than-average effect orbelow-average effect is the human tendency to underestimate one's achievements and capabilities in relation to others.[1]
It is the opposite of the usually pervasivebetter-than-average effect (in contexts where the two are compared or theoverconfidence effect in other situations). It has been proposed more recently to explain reversals of that effect, where people instead underestimate their own desirable traits.
This effect seems to occur when chances of success are perceived to be extremely rare. Traits which people tend to underestimate includejuggling ability, the ability to ride aunicycle, the odds of living past 100 or of finding aU.S. twenty dollar bill on the ground in the next two weeks.
Some have attempted to explain thiscognitive bias in terms of theregression fallacy or ofself-handicapping. In a 2012 article inPsychological Bulletin it is suggested the worse-than-average effect (as well as othercognitive biases) can be explained by a simpleinformation-theoretic generative mechanism that assumes a noisy conversion of objective evidence (observation) into subjective estimates (judgment).[2]