William M. Gray | |
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| Born | William Mason Gray (1929-10-09)9 October 1929 |
| Died | 16 April 2016(2016-04-16) (aged 86) |
| Alma mater | University of Chicago |
| Known for | Research intohurricanes,climate change skepticism |
| Spouse | |
| Children | 4 |
| Scientific career | |
| Fields | Atmospheric science |
| Institutions | Colorado State University |
| Thesis | On the Scales of Motion and Internal Stress Characteristics of the Hurricane (1964) |
William Mason Gray was an American meteorologist who wasemeritus professor ofatmospheric science atColorado State University (CSU), and the head of theTropical Meteorology Project at CSU's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. He is widely regarded as a pioneer in the science oftropical cyclone forecasting[1] and one of the world's leading experts ontropical storms.[2] After retiring as a faculty member at CSU in 2005, Gray remained actively involved in bothclimate change andtropical cyclone research until his death.
Gray was born on 9 October 1929, inDetroit, Michigan, and was the eldest son of Ulysses S. Gray and Beatrice Mason Gray. His family moved toWashington, D.C. in 1939 where he graduated from Wilson High School.[3] In 1952, Gray received aB.S. degree ingeography fromGeorge Washington University before joining theUnited States Air Force in 1953.[3][4] Over the next four years, he served as an overseas weather forecast officer, primarily stationed in theAzores andEngland.[3] Upon returning to the United States in 1957, he began work as a research assistant at theUniversity of Chicago Department of Meteorology from 1957 to 1961.[4] During his time there, he earned aM.S. inmeteorology 1959 and went on to earn aPhD in geophysical sciences in 1964 under the mentorship ofHerbert Riehl.[4][5][6]
He joinedColorado State University (CSU) in 1961 as part of the Department of Atmospheric Science.[4] Gray remained active in theAir Force Reserves until 1974, at which time he retired as aLieutenant colonel.[3] Following his retirement from the Reserves, he became a professor at CSU and went on to advise successful 20 PhD and 50 M.S. graduates.[3][4][5] Eight of his students received awards from theAmerican Meteorological Society while under his mentorship.[4] Many of his students went on to become prominent members of the meteorological community, with several working at theNational Hurricane Center.[7] His last student wasPhilip Klotzbach,[3] who later took over Gray's position as lead author of the CSU seasonal hurricane forecasts.[8]
Gray worked closely with theWorld Meteorological Organization throughout his career.[3] Starting in 1978, he traveled to numerous countries establish or improve connections with meteorologists across the globe, a groundbreaking action.[9] In 1985, he organized the first International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones inBangkok, Thailand.[3]
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Gray had many students and he offered them advice including hiscommandments. One of them wasRemember Up-Moist, Down-Dry and Keep it Holy which was the reference to his conviction that one has to include moisture processes such as evaporation and rainfall to understand atmospheric energy balance.Thou Shalt Not Concern Thyself Unduly with Commandments and Regulations expressed his disdain for bureaucracy. Being an observational atmospheric scientist, he detested numerical models of the atmosphere—Thou Shalt Not Bow Before Computer Terminals Nor Involve Thyself with Numerical Models. He held very lively group meetings with his students and encouraged them to question everything—Remember Thy Project Meeting and Keep it Holy,Thou Shalt Not Wait 'til the End of a Talk to Ask a Question When Thou Can Interrupt in the Middle.
On 1 October 1954, Gray married Nancy Price and they had four children together: Sarah, Anne (deceased), Janet, and Robert. They remained married until Price's death in 2001.[3] Gray was a fan of baseball and followed the thenWashington Senators (now known as the Texas Rangers).[10] He initially sought a career in baseball or basketball but a knee injury at age 21 prevented him from pursuing such.[3]
Among Gray's most prominent achievements were the establishment of seasonal hurricane forecasts and finding that hurricane activity is cyclical.[11] He is widely regarded as a pioneer in hurricane research, particularly for the seasonal forecasts.[1] Throughout his career, Gray published more than 80 papers and 60 research reports.[5] Klotzbach referred to him as "one of the greatest minds in hurricane research".[10]
In the late 1970s, Gray noticed a trend of low hurricane activity in theNorth Atlantic basin duringEl Niño years. He was the first researcher to make a connection between such events and positive results led him to pursue further research. He found numerous factors across the globe influence tropical cyclone activity, such as connecting wet periods over the AfricanSahel to an increase inmajor hurricanelandfalls along theUnited States East Coast. However, his findings also showed inconsistencies when only looking at a single factor as a primary influence.[9]
Utilizing his findings, Gray developed an objective, statistical forecast for seasonal hurricane activity; he predicted only the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, foregoing specifics on tracks and potential landfalls due to the aforementioned inconsistencies.[9] Gray issued his first seasonal forecast ahead of the1984 season, which used the statistical relationships between tropical cyclone activity, theEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO),Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and Caribbean basin sea-level pressures.[12][13] The endeavor proved modestly successful.[9] He subsequently issued forecasts ahead of the start of the Atlantic hurricane season in May and before the peak of the season in August.[8] Students and colleagues joined his forecast team in the following years, includingChristopher Landsea, Paul W. Mielke Jr., and Kenneth J. Berry.[1]
After the2005 Atlantic hurricane season, Gray announced that he was stepping back from the primary authorship of CSU's tropical cyclone probability forecasts, passing the role to Philip J. Klotzbach. Gray indicated that he would be devoting more time to the issue ofglobal warming. He did not attribute global warming toanthropogenic causes, and was critical of those who did.[14][15]
Following Gray's retirement from CSU's faculty, hetook a stance againstanthropogenic global warming.[11][16] Gray claimed that scientists supported thescientific consensus on climate change because they were afraid of losing grant funding[17] and promoted by government leaders and environmentalists seekingworld government.[18] Although he agreed thatglobal warming was taking place, he argued that humans were only responsible for a tiny portion and it was largely part of the Earth's natural cycle.[16][18] In June 2011, Gray wrote a paper directed at the American Meteorological Society, opposing their embrace of anthropogenic global warming.[19]
While his thoughts on climate change were well-known among his students and presented at several conferences, they were never published in the peer-reviewed literature.[20]
Peter Webster, aGeorgia Institute of Technology professor, was part of the anonymouspeer review on several of Gray'sNational Science Foundation proposals. In every case he has turned down the global warming research component because he believed it was not up to standards, but recommended that Gray's hurricane research be funded. Webster, who co-authored papers with Gray, was critical of Gray for his personal attacks on the scientists with whom he disagreed.[21]
Throughout his career, Gray received several awards for his pioneering research and mentorship:[4]
...1984...Gray also launched the endeavor that would make him most famous: a seasonal forecasting scheme for the Atlantic basin, which would predict the number of hurricanes and tropical storms months before their actual arrival. ... It's hard to overstate the breakthrough that Gray had achieved with his forecasting scheme.
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