Ethiopian invasion of Somalia
Part of theEthiopian–Somali conflict and theSomali Civil War
Top to bottom: Ethiopian T-55 tank advances on Mogadishu (Dec 2006) ICU insurgents pose with their rifles over TFG and ENDF defectors (Sep 2008)
Date 17 June 2006[13] – 30 January 2009 (2 years, 7 months, 1 week and 1 day) Location Southern and CentralSomalia Result Islamist insurgent victory,[14][15] seeConsequences Disintegration of theIslamic Courts Union government and emergence of Islamistinsurgency Deployment ofAMISOM (2007) Rise ofal-Shabaab[16] Escalation ofInsurgency in Ogaden[17] Proliferation ofSomali piracy[18][19] Insurgency recaptures majority of south/central Somalia and Mogadishu Withdrawal ofENDF from Mogadishu and majority of Somalia (2009) New phase ofSomali Civil War withconflict between 'radical' and 'moderate' Islamists
Belligerents
Invasion: Ethiopia TFG United States[1][2] Supported by: Kenya[3] Insurgency: Ethiopia TFG Puntland Galmudug ASWJ[4] United States AMISOM Burundi[5][6] Kenya Malawi[7] Nigeria[8] Uganda[9]	Invasion: Islamic Courts Union Supported by: ONLF[10][11] Eritrea[12] Insurgency: Al-Shabaab ARS Ras Kamboni Brigades Jabhatul Islamiya Muaskar Anole ICU loyalists
Commanders and leaders
Meles Zenawi Gabre Heard Kuma Demeksa Samora Yunis Abdullahi Yusuf Ali Gedi Barre Hiiraale Adde Musa George W. Bush Barack Obama Robert Gates	Sharif Ahmed Hassan Aweys Ibrahim Addow Abdullahi Afrah † Abdirahman Janaqow Abdilqadir Ali Omar Madobe (POW) Hassan al-Turki Aden Ayrow † Ahmed Godane Mukhtar Robow
Strength
Ethiopia: 50,000–60,000[20][21][22] TFG: 10,000 soldiers[23] AMISOM: 5,250 soldiers US Forces: Unknown	ICU: 4,000 (2006)[24] Al-Shabaab: 2,000 (2008)[25] 3,000 (2009)[26] Foreign fighters: Several hundred [27]
Casualties and losses
Ethiopia: At least 3,773 killed (perIGAD),[28] seeCasualties TFG: Unknown 15,000 deserted[29] AMISOM: Unknown, seeCasualties	2,000–3,000 killed[30] 4,000–5,000 wounded (Ethiopian claim, Dec. 2006)[31][32]
Civilian casualties: 16,210–20,000 killed[33][34] Over 1 million displaced (Nov. 2007)[35] (see§ Casualties and human rights violations)

TheEthiopian invasion of Somalia, also known as theEthiopian occupation of Somalia^[36] or theEthiopian intervention in the Somali Civil War, was an armed conflict that lasted from late 2006 to early 2009. It began when military forces fromEthiopia, supported by theUnited States, invaded Somalia to depose theIslamic Courts Union (ICU) and install theTransitional Federal Government (TFG). The conflict continued after the invasion when an anti-Ethiopianinsurgency emerged and rapidly escalated. During 2007 and 2008, the insurgency recaptured the majority of territory lost by the ICU.

Ethiopian military involvement began in response to the rising power of the Islamic Courts Union, which operated as thede facto government in the majority of southern Somalia by late 2006. In order to reinforce the weak Ethiopian backed TFG, troops from theEthiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) began deploying into Somalia during June 2006. Six months later during December 2006 the combined ENDF/TFG coalition, alongside a covertUS military contingent, launched a full-scale invasion to topple the Islamic Courts. The ICU's organizational structure disintegrated, ENDF/TFG forces enteredMogadishu in the last days of December. In early 2007 an insurgency began, centered on a loose coalition of Islamic Courts loyalists, volunteers, clan militias, and various Islamist factions, of whichal-Shabaab eventually assumed a pivotal role. In the same period, theAfrican Union (AU) established theAMISOM peacekeeping operation, sending thousands of troops to Somalia to bolster the besiegedTFG andENDF. TheAlliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS), the successor to the ICU, further incited Islamist rebels and participated in the fighting.

Over the following two years, theENDF, theTFG andAMISOM, became entrenched in a protracted struggle against an escalating insurgency, leading to the displacement of nearly one million inhabitants fromMogadishu.^[37][38]Piracy off the coast of Somalia, which had been previously suppressed by the ICU, greatly proliferated.^[18] By the end of 2007, ENDF troops were bogged down and facing a multi front war with no prospect of victory. While Mogadishu witnessed fierce fighting, insurgents launched offensives across southern and central Somalia in late 2007 and 2008, regaining territory previously lost by the ICU. In 2008, al-Shabaab started taking control of significant tracts of southern Somalia and began governing territory for the first time.^[39] The Ethiopianmilitary occupation faltered,^[40] and by Autumn 2008, more than 80% of the territory the ICU lost during the invasion was recaptured by the insurgency.^[41] The insurgency had effectively won.^[42] By December 2008, the overwhelming majority of TFG security forces had deserted,^[43] and TFG only able to control some parts ofMogadishu and the city ofBaidoa.^[44] TFG PresidentAbdullahi Yusuf resigned after stating that he had lost control of Somalia to the insurgency.^[45] The Ethiopian backed government remained weak and highly fragmented.^[40]

At the end of 2008, theARS was assimilated into the TFG in an attempt to halt the growing insurgency and form a representative democratic government.^[46][36] During January 2009, former head of the ICUSharif Sheikh Ahmed was elected TFG president. That same month, declaring victory and claiming to have eradicated the 'Islamist threat', the ENDF withdrew from Mogadishu and Somalia, ending the two-year occupation.^[36] By the time of the withdrawal, effectively all territory lost by the ICU during the full scale December 2006 and January 2007 invasion had been recovered by Islamist insurgents,^[47] including much ofMogadishu.^[48][36] Years into thepresent phase of the civil war, Ethiopia became re-involved and joinedAMISOM in 2014 in order to counter the growth of al-Shabaab.

Disputes betweenSomalia andEthiopia over theOgaden (now theSomali Region) date to Ethiopian EmperorMenelik's expansions intoSomali lands during the 1890s, initiating the process of incorporation into theEthiopian Empire. Several decades of growing tension and conflict culminated in the1977–1978 War where Somalia launched an invasion to assist theWestern Somali Liberation Front in the hope of incorporating the Ogaden into a unitary 'Greater Somalia'. Major conflicts between Ethiopia and Somalia since the latter's independence in 1960 include:

• 1964Border War
• 1977–1978Ogaden War
• 1982Border War
• 1996–2003 border incursions during theSomali Civil War.^[49][50] Ethiopian troops had been crossing into Somalia since 1996 to support militias in regions such asBay,Puntland andGedo.^[51][52]

In 2000, the first successful attempt to form a government since the collapse of Somalia's central authority in 1991 led to the creation of theTransitional National Government (TNG). Ethiopia opposed the TNG, fearing that Somali reunification would reignite claims on the Ogaden region. In response, Ethiopia supported groups in Somalia that resisted the TNG and actively sponsored the formation of opposition alliances to preserve its strategic interests.^[53] After the9/11 attacks, the Ethiopian government labelled TNG leaders asIslamic extremists who were pro-Bin Laden.^[54]

The TNG later failed and was instead replaced by the rise ofIslamic Courts Union (ICU) in the years following, which occurred concurrently with the escalatinginsurgency in the Ogaden waged by theOgaden National Liberation Front.^[55] The ONLF maintained a covert relationship with the ICU and regarded the courts as a natural ally.^[56][57] A strong Somali state not dependent onAddis Ababa was perceived as a security threat,^[58][12] and consequently the Ethiopian government heavily backed the formation of theTransitional Federal Government (TFG) in 2004 and the presidency ofAbdullahi Yusuf on the grounds that he would give up Somalia's long standing claim to the Ogaden.^[59] Yusuf was previously a member of anEthiopian-backed coalition of warlords that had undermined the TNG,^[60] and decades prior to that had led Somali rebels who assisted invading Ethiopian troops during the1982 Ethiopian–Somali war.^[61] The Ogaden was at the heart of the dispute between the ICU and Ethiopian governments. Following their ascent to power, senior ICU officials accused Ethiopia of mistreating the Somalis under its rule and declared that the region could not be forgotten, as it was tied to them by blood.^[62]

Even before the beginning of the war, there have been significant assertions and accusations of the use of disinformation and propaganda tactics by various parties to shape the causes and course of the conflict. Eastern African countries and international observers had feared the Ethiopian offensive may lead to a regional war, involvingEritrea, which has a complex relationship with Ethiopia and who Ethiopia claimed to have been a supporter of the ICU.^[63] TheEritrean government denied sending troops,^[64] no evidence exists to support claims of Eritrean troops in Somalia.^[65] No Eritrean presence was discovered in the country during the war^[66] except for two journalists who were arrested and accused of being soldiers by the Ethiopians.^[67] Ethiopia also denied deploying troops in Somalia despite being widely reported.^[68] The TFG also denied the presence of Ethiopian forces in Somalia,^[69] even after Ethiopia had admitted its troops were inside Somalia.^[70]

The majority of Somali society, including much of the newly formedTransitional Federal Government, deeply opposed any foreign military intervention.^[71][72] With significant Ethiopian support,Abdullahi Yusuf was elected as the TFG president, and, under Ethiopian direction, he appointed a prime minister with connections to then-Ethiopian Prime MinisterMeles Zenawi. These close connections to Addis Ababa were a driving force behind the invasion and provoked the ICU into later adopting a bellicose stance.^[73] During a 2004 visit to the Ethiopian capitalAddis Ababa, when President Yusuf first requested 20,000 Ethiopian troops enter Somalia to back his government.^[74] A 2005African Union fact finding mission to Somalia found that the overwhelming majority of Somalis rejected troops from neighboring states entering the country.^[66] Despite significant opposition within the TFG parliament,^[75] President Yusuf made the unpopular decision to invite Ethiopian troops to prop up his administration.^[44] As an institution, the TFG did not consent to or approve of the Ethiopian military intervention. No parliamentary approval was given for a decision openly opposed by a significant portion of the government.^[66] The leadership ofIslamic Courts Union were infuriated by the TFG administration's push to deploy international troops, insisting that only a homegrown solution could address Somalia's problems.^[76]

During mid-2006, theICU decisively defeated aCIA backedalliance of Somali warlords and became the first organization since the collapse of the state to controlMogadishu,^[65] which propelled the ICU on the national stage for the first time.^[77] The ICU began recruiting thousands of young men from acrossSomali territories and in theSomali diaspora.^[78] British television stationChannel 4 acquired a leaked document detailing a confidential meeting between senior American and Ethiopian officials in Addis Ababa six months prior to the full-scale December 2006 invasion. Participants deliberated on various scenarios, with the 'worst-case scenario' being the potential takeover of Somalia by the Islamic Courts Union. The documents revealed that the US found the prospect unacceptable and would back Ethiopia in the event of an ICU takeover. JournalistJon Snow reported that during the meeting 'the blueprint for a very American supported Ethiopian invasion of Somalia was hatched'. No Somali officials were involved in the discussions.^[66] According to Ted Dagne, an Africa specialist for the USCongressional Research Service, the Islamic Courts had committed no act or provocation to initiate the Ethiopian invasion.^[74] American historianWilliam R. Polk observes that the invasion had been unprovoked.^[79]

The Ethiopian invasion began with the dispatch of several thousandEthiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) troops aroundBaidoa city located inBay region, far inside Somalia, in order to build a bridgehead for a future large scale military operation.^[80] On 16 June 2006,Shabeelle Media Network reported that sources in Ethiopia'sSomali Region had witnessed a massing ofENDF 'heavy armoured vehicles' along many of the towns on theEthiopian–Somali border^[81] and on the following day the first Ethiopian troops moved into Somali territory. Local Somali officials and residents inGedo region reported about 50 ENDF armored vehicles had passed through the border town ofDolow and pushed 50 km inland near the town ofLuuq.^[13][82] ICU headSheik Sharif Ahmed claimed that 300 ENDF had entered the country through the border town ofDolow inGedo region and that Ethiopian forces had also been probing Somali border towns. He went on to threaten to fight Ethiopian troops if they continued intervening and further stated, "We want the whole world to know what's going on. The United States is encouraging Ethiopia to take over the area. Ethiopia has crossed our borders and are heading for us."^[83][82] The Ethiopian government denied the deployment of its forces in Somalia and countered that the ICU was marching towards its borders.^[68][84][13] The TFG vehemently denied accusations of an Ethiopian military deployment and claimed that the ICU was fabricating a pretext to assault its capital inBaidoa. Additionally, the TFG arrested several reporters fromShabelle Media Network and imposed restrictions on their radio station after they reported on the ENDF incursion.^[85][86] On 19 June 2006 the ICU called for theinternational community to pressure Ethiopian forces to withdraw from Somalia.^[87]

During July, approximately 20,000 Ethiopian troops had built up along the border.^[88] Another major deployment of the ENDF into Somalia occurred on July 20, 2006. Local witnesses reported dozens of armored vehicles enter the country, though the Ethiopian government denied the presence of its troops inside Somalia.Reuters estimated that roughly 5,000ENDF troops had built up inside Somalia by this point.^[89] On 23 July 2006, theOgaden National Liberation Front announced that they had shot down an Ethiopian military helicopter heading for Somalia and publicly warned that military movements in theOgaden pointed towards an imminent large-scale operation directed at southern Somalia.^[90] That same day, another ENDF contingent crossed into Somalia, leading to the collapse of the Khartoum talks between the ICU and TFG. The ICU walked out of talks with the TFG after hundreds of ENDF troops seizedWajid, taking control of the airport and landing two helicopters.Abdirahman Janaqow, the deputy leader of the ICU executive council, announced soon after that, "The Somali government has violated the accord and allowed Ethiopian troops to enter Somali soil." The TFG claimed that no Ethiopians were in Somalia and that only their troops were in Wajid.^[91]BBC News confirmed reports of Ethiopian troops in Wajid during interviews with local residents and aid workers. Following the towns seizure, the ICU pledged to wage aholy war to drive out the ENDF from Somalia.^[92]

The escalation of Ethiopian troop deployments into Somalia during July 2006 began raising fears of a possible 'all-out war' in theHorn of Africa,^[93] though the2006 Lebanon War overshadowed news reports of several thousand troops entering Somalia.^[94] During late July 2006, over a dozen TFG parliamentarians resigned in protest of the Ethiopian invasion.^[95] By August 2006 the TFG was mired in a severe internal crisis and at risk of collapse.^[96] In late July,Eritrea called for the withdrawal of the ENDF in Somalia to prevent a regional war^[95] and the following month accused Ethiopia of plotting a US supported invasion with the aim of destroying the "realization of a unified Somalia"^[12]

By September, at least 7,000 Ethiopian troops were in Somalia and had begun arming warlords defeated by the ICU.^[97] ENDF forces built up troops inside theHiran andGedo regions.^[98] The first clash between ICU and ENDF occurred on 9 October 2006. TFG forces, backed by the Ethiopian troops, attacked the ICU positions at the town ofBurhakaba, forcing the courts to retreat.^[99]AFP reported that residents in Baidoa had witnessed a large column of at least 72 armed ENDF vehicles and troops transports depart from city before the incident.^[100]Meles Zenawi's government denied that the ENDF was in Somalia, or that they had participated in the incident, but local residents confirmed the presence of large numbers of ENDF in Burhakaba.The Economist reported that the military incursion had set off a fierce reaction even among the most moderate of the ICU, and a recruitment mobilization began in order to raise a force to take back area.^[101] The ICU claimed that the ENDF had also sent another large deployment across the Somali border. Following the battle,Sharif Ahmed announced "This is clear aggression...Our forces will face them soon if they do not retreat from Somali territories" and declaredJihad against Ethiopian military forces.^[102]

In November 2006, the situation significantly escalated with the extensive mobilization and strategic positioning of ENDF, TFG and ICU forces in southern Somalia. Local residents reported large numbers of ICU forces deploying toBurhakaba. The distance between the opposing forces on thefront line was now less than 20 km apart. On 26 and 28 November the courts claimed to have ambushed two ENDF convoys nearBaidoa.^[103] On 29 November, the courts claimed Ethiopian forces had shelledBandiradley. The next day ICU forces ambushed an ENDF convoy outside of Baidoa.^[104]

That month, theOgaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) declared that it would not allow theOgaden region to be used as a launching pad to invade Somalia and warned that it would resist any attempts to do so.^[105] The Ethiopian military campaign against the ONLF, along with widespread atrocities committed against civilians associated with it, drove hundreds of men (thousands according to some estimates) from the Ogaden to Mogadishu in order to answer the ICU's call to arms against the invasion.^[106] Several hundred men fromSomaliland also joined the Courts militia, including high-ranking military officers, while ICU supporters in Puntland primarily provided financial andlogistical aid.^[107][108] ICU officials reported around 100 fighters from Puntland had defected to join their ranks during mid-November.^[109]

TFG speaker of parliamentSharif Hassan Adan announced on 3 December 2006 that Ethiopia had deployed a "massive military force" of 15,000 troops. Adan sought to reconcile with the ICU and stated that the blame for any war in Somalia lay on theEthiopian government led byMeles Zenawi.^[110]

The most significant event to immediately prelude the war was the passing ofUnited Nations Security Council 1725 on 6 December 2006.^[65][111] The resolution called for the deployment of foreign troops and the lifting of the arms embargo. The Islamic Courts and Muslim Somali leaders had in the months prior to the resolution firmly rejected the deployment of any international military forces in Somalia as an act of war.^[65] Top leaders of the TFG had previously requested that 20,000 foreign troops, including Ethiopian forces be deployed to Somalia, though the move was opposed by many parliamentarians.^[97] Prior UN resolutions barred neighboring states from deploying forces, yet Ethiopia had already violated an earlier mandate by deploying thousands of troops in Somalia. To the Islamic Courts, the new resolution seemed to rubber-stamp Ethiopia's invasion– all the more so because the Security Council said nothing about Ethiopian troops already deployed on Somali soil.^[65]

Several weeks before the resolution was passed, a UN report had alleged that the ICU had fought in theLebanon War and given Iran access theuranium deposits within Somalia. Observers drew parallels these allegations and the accusations made by the United States during the lead up to the2003 invasion of Iraq.^[112]Herman Cohen, the USAssistant Secretary for African Affairs, noted the US decision to back resolution had been influenced by false Ethiopian intelligence. The ICU viewed the passing of UNSCR 1725 as effectively adeclaration of war, a UN endorsement of the Ethiopian invasion^[65] and as evidence of an international conspiracy against the union.^[113]Al-Shabaab, one of the militia within the military wing of the ICU, increasingly radicalized in response to the Ethiopian incursion.^[114] TheUnited States Assistant Secretary of State issued a statement openly accusing the ICU leadership of being members ofal-Qaeda.^[115] US military trainers in town ofHurso,Somali Region oversaw the training of ENDF forces as the build up for war took place in the area.^[116] On 8 December 2006, two days afterUNSCR 1725 was passed, the ICU reported being ambushed by Ethiopian troops, sparking an artillery duel which escalated into a two-day battle between ENDF/TFG and ICU forces.^[117]

Forces involved are difficult to calculate because of many factors, including lack of formal organization or record-keeping, and claims marred bydisinformation. For months leading up to the war, Ethiopia maintained it had only a few hundred advisors in the country, yet independent reports indicated far more troops.

Approximately 50,000 to 60,000Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) troops backed by tanks,helicopter gunships and jets had been involved in the offensive against theIslamic Courts Union during December 2006.^{[118][21][119]} At the outbreak of the war, the strength of the ENDF, the largest military insub-Saharan Africa with one of the continent's strongestair forces, contrasted sharply with the ICU, which lacked conventional forces.^[74] ColonelGabre Heard, a senior ENDF officer andTigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) official, wascommander-in-chief of Ethiopian troops during the invasion.^[120] The TFG claimed only 12,000 to 15,000 Ethiopian troops had been deployed to Somalia,^[121] while the Ethiopian government claimed it had only 4,000.^[121] During 2007, military experts estimated 50,000 Ethiopian troops were occupying parts of Somalia.^[122][22] Other estimates placed the figure at 40,000.^[123][124] The Ethiopian backed TFG possessed approximately 6,000 soldiers.^[125]

During the invasion phase of the war, US Special Forces, CIAparamilitary units, andMarine units, supported by AmericanAC-130s andhelicopter gunships, directly intervened in support of the ENDF.^[118][126] The USBush administration doubted Ethiopia's ability to effectively use the new equipment it had provided for the invasion. As a result, it decided to involveUS Special Forces andCIA agents in the campaign.^[79]

Reuters reported 3,000 to 4,000 troops fought under the ICU at its height.^[127] The insurgency that followed the collapse of the ICU was composed of numerous different groups and factions, making it difficult to determine who was responsibility for a variety of attacks and incidents, thoughal-Shabaab ultimately became the most powerful and active element.^[128] The TFGs prime ministerAli Gedi claimed that 8,000 foreign fighters were in Somalia,^[129] although the African Union reported the country had only attracted 'several hundred' since the formation of the ICU to mid-2007.^[27] In 2008 there were reportedly around 100 foreign fighters in Somalia.^[130]

Prior to the invasion, significant military intelligence andlogistics support was offered by theUnited States military to the ENDF.The Pentagon provided access toaerial reconnaissance andsatellite surveillance of ICU military positions across Somalia. The Americans also played a substantial role in sponsoring the invasion, even covering expenses such as fuel and spare parts for Ethiopian troops.^[65] Pentagon officials and intelligence analysts reported that the invasion had been planned during the summer of 2006 and thatUS special forces were on the ground before the Ethiopians had intervened.^[131]Reuters reported American and British Special Forces, along with US-hiredmercenaries, had been laying the ground work for the invasion within and outside Somalia since late 2005.^[65]

Before the full-scale invasion began, more than 10,000ENDF troops had been built up in and aroundBaidoa over the months since the first incursion in June 2006. Much ofBay andBakool region had already been occupied by Ethiopian troops.^[65] Flooding that had taken place across Somalia since August 2006 delayed troop movements. By December, the land around strategic towns had largely dried.^[132] On 13 December, the ICU claimed 30,000 Ethiopian troops were deployed inside of Somalia.^[133] The following day, local residents and ICU officials in theHiran region reported a large scale deployment of ENDF troops across the border over a 48-hour period in the regions environs.^[134]

As tensions escalated, different members within the ICU made unilateral statements regarding the response to the Ethiopian invasion without consulting the ICU leadership.^[65][113] On 13 December 2006, two high-ranking officials in the ICU's military wing,Yusuf Indhacade and his deputyMukthar Robow, gave Ethiopian troops deployed in Somalia a seven-dayultimatum to withdraw from the country or face expulsion.^[113] The Courts were divided over whether or not to forcibly eject invading Ethiopian troops, and theEuropean Union began last minute diplomatic efforts to halt the outbreak of war, resulting in contradictory statements from various ICU leaders.Sharif Sheikh Ahmed andHassan Dahir Aweys, both adopted conciliatory stances as a result, but the sharp rise in tensions had empowered the Courts 'Hawks' who viewed the growing Ethiopian military forces and the passing ofUNSCR 1725 as proof of an international conspiracy against the ICU.^[113] Statements from the international actors were contradictory as theAfrican Union had at first endorsed the Ethiopian invasion, only to quickly retract the statement two days later.^[65] According to TFG officials negotiating with the ICU in December days prior to the outbreak of the war, up to 20,000 Ethiopian troops were stationed in Baidoa and its environs, while the ICU claimed the figure deployed in Somalia had risen to over 30,000.^[135]

The first battle of the full-scale invasion began soon after the withdrawalultimatum expired on 19 December 2006. Fighting broke out that evening when tworeconnaissance teams clashed at around the settlement of Idaale, 60 kilometres south ofBaidoa. Both sides blamed each other for initiating the fighting.^[136] ICU fighters, many of whom were university students, attacked Ethiopian positions in Daynunay, 20 kilometres east of Baidoa as heavy fighting and artillery shelling broke out on several different front lines.^[137][138] Some of the most intense fighting of the war took place between the ICU and ENDF/TFG around the towns of Daynuunay and Idaale. Heavy weaponry was utilized in a large scale face-to-face confrontation primarily between the Islamic Courts and Ethiopian forces.^[139] Though BBC journalists in the country at the time reported huge ENDF armor columns around Baidoa, the Ethiopian government denied its troops were in Somalia.^[136] Accounts from opposing camps noted heavy casualties from the fighting, with many bodies littering the battlefields, along with a massive influx of reinforcements.^[140] From the start of the operation, Americanspecial forces were covertly present.^[141] Between 19 and 21 December, the ICU and Ethiopian troops had faced off in open battle in three encounters. Despite the material and numerical odds against the Islamic Courts, they had prevailed in the three battles. These early victories led western intelligence officials and analysts to fear that the ICU would overrun Baidoa.^[142] US intelligence sources reported that in the initial days of the conflict, the ICU effectively utilized tactics against ENDF tanks that mirrored those employed byHezbollah against theIDF months prior during theLebanon War.^[143] ICU forces managed to advance only eight kilometres away from Baidoa, but lacking effective counters to Ethiopian artillery and armor superiority, the lightly armed fighters who charged the Ethiopian front line suffered high casualty rates.^[144] 50,000 Ethiopian troops took part in the invasion.^[145]

Americangunships, including helicopters and theAC-130, flew out ofDire Dawa andDiego Garcia to provideair support for Ethiopian troops.^{[146][118][147]} TheUSS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier battlegroup was dispatched to the Somali coast to provide further air support and aerial surveillance.^[148]US Special forces and CIAparamilitary units also participated.^{[149][145][126]} The participation of the US ground and air forces provided the ENDF with massive military superiority over the ICU.Ali Gedi, then prime minister of the TFG and a participant in planning for the invasion noted that, "The Ethiopians were not able to come in without the support of the US Government...American air forces were supporting us."^[150] US operations during the invasion took place in a media vacuum, with no images or footage appearing of American forces.^[148] American planes and helicopters that struck ICU targets during December 2006 had their markings obscured.^[141] In an interview withal-Jazeera, head of the Islamic CourtsSharif Sheikh Ahmed later reported that after achieving a string of battlefield victories, ICU troops had come under unexpected bombardment from US aircraft.^[151]

As the ENDF advanced towards Mogadishu, they encountered fierce resistance inBay region. Large battles took place around the settlements of Diinsoor and Daynuunay, where the Courts pushed back the Ethiopian army and overran a military camp. One of the most notable battles occurred at Idaale, where the ICU inflicted heavy losses on the invading forces.^[152] The ICU'sal-Shabaab youth militia were also present for the battle. The ENDF were drawn out of their positions into battle when fighters attacked an Ethiopian position and then feinted a retreat. The Ethiopians pursued with a large contingent of troops and were soon ambushed by hundreds of fighters, initiating a massive battle between the ENDF and ICU that would last several days.^[144] After two days of large scale clashes, SheikHassan Dahir Aweys announced Somalia was in astate of war;^[153] but clarified that the ICU considered itself at war with Ethiopia and not the TFG.^[154] By the end of 22 December, both sides claimed to have killed hundreds of each other's troops.^[154] TheBattle of Bandiradley began on December 23, 2006, when Ethiopian and Puntland forces, along withAbdi Qeybdid of theSomali Warlord Alliance, fought ICU militias defending Bandiradley.^[155] With the defensive capabilities of the Courts overextended and overwhelmed,^[113] the tide turned against them on the fourth day of the war as the Ethiopian army continued deploying their superior military hardware.^[144] The ICU positions at Bandiradley in central Somalia was the first to fracture, leaving a significant gap in the front line.^[113] No ICU reserves were available to deploy in the exposed northern flank, enabling the Ethiopian military to begin ablitzkrieg.^[156]

As ENDFconvoys drove through theOgaden region to reach the front line, theONLF began attacking those attempting to join the war. The ONLF announced that on 23 December, in-line with their policy of resisting attacks on Somalia, they had attacked a convoy consisting of twenty armored vehicles and several trucks driving throughKorahe Zone. The ONLF reported that after inflicting casualties and destroying four vehicles, the convoy had to retreat and abandon its planned operations in Somalia.^[10]

On 24 December, the ICU reported to be around 10 km away from Baidoa. The Courts reported destroying several ENDF tanks during a battle at Daynuunay.^[157] TheEthiopian Air Force began carrying outairstrikes on the city ofBeledweyne and other towns in central Somalia.^[158][159] After Beledweyne had become the target of airstrikes, the Courts decided to withdraw from the city.^[152] TheEthiopian Air Force bombedMogadishu airport, killing several people in an airstrike.^[152][160] That same day Ethiopia admitted its troops were fighting the ICU for the first time, after stating earlier in the week it had only sent several hundred military advisors to Baidoa.^[161] Ethiopian PMMeles Zenawi claimed in a televised address that day that he had been compelled to go to war in order to protect national sovereignty.^[158] After Ethiopia admitted its troops were inside Somalia, the TFG continued to publicly deny the presence of ENDF troops, further undermining its credibility.^[65] Heavy fighting, including reports of airstrikes and shelling, erupted in the border areas,^[161] with the ICU claiming to have shot down an ENDF helicopter gunship.^[162]

The ICU forces, composed primarily of lightly armed youth were heavily outnumbered, outgunned and exhausted. In the ensuing blitzkrieg, the many untrained ICU volunteers from various Somali clans were badly mauled. Fighting against forces with completearmor andair supremacy the Islamic Courts front line began to collapse in the face ofconventional warfare.^{[113][144][156]} Ethiopian forces, rather than those of the TFG, were responsible for ICU battlefield losses, with the latter largely relying on the efforts of the ENDF.^[163] Defending Islamist forces withdrew fromBeledweyne concurrent to Ethiopian airstrikes against theMogadishu andBaledogle airports.^[164]

After fighting for nine days in open battle with the Ethiopian army, the courts began to pull back from thefront line aroundBaidoa,Idaale,Dinsoor, Daynuunay andBurhakaba. Their forces withdrew and gathered around the town of Jowhar, 90 km north of Mogadishu.^[152] Analysts reported that the withdrawal had occurred simultaneously across the ICU's entire front, indicating a deliberate coordinated change in strategy rather than a chaotic rout. According toDavid Shinn, US ambassador to Ethiopia, the ICU had recognized their vulnerability to sustained attacks from an enemy with air and armor superiority and had opted for a transition to insurgent tactics. Following the withdrawal,Sharif Ahmed declared that the conflict had entered 'a new phase.'^[165]

On 27 December, the leaders of the Islamic Courts Union, including SheikhHassan Dahir Aweys, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and SheikhAbdirahman Janaqow resigned, and the Courts government effectively dissolved,^[166] though Sharif declared that the Courts forces were still united.^[167] The ICU had evacuated many towns without fighting as ENDF/TFG forces advanced on Mogadishu^[168] That same day theAfrican Union, supported by theArab League and theIGAD, called for Ethiopia to withdraw from Somalia immediately.^[169]

As Ethiopian troops advanced on Mogadishu, they were accompanied by the warlords who the ICU had defeated in mid-2006. The Ethiopians allowed the warlords to regain control over the fiefdoms they had previously lost to the courts.^[65] The ICU declared it was withdrawing from the capital to prevent a bloodbath,^[167] and on 28 December, Ethiopian and government forces marched into the city ofMogadishu unopposed. After theFall of Mogadishu to the Ethiopian and TFG forces on December 28, the Islamists retreated from theJuba River valley. Heavy artillery fire was reported on December 31 in theBattle of Jilib and the ICU withdrew by midnight,leaving Kismayo, without a fight and retreating towards theKenyan border. The ICU declared it would not surrender to the Ethiopians and vowed it would continue its armed struggle.^[170] Demoralized, many fighters returned to their homes.^[156] Despite their desperate position, the Courts remained defiant declaring in a statement, "If the world thinks we are dead, they should know we are alive and will continue thejihad"^[171]

Military events in January 2007 focused on the southern section of Somalia, primarily thewithdrawal of the ICU fromKismayo following theBattle of Jilib, and their pursuit using Ethiopian and American airstrikes until a final stand during theBattle of Ras Kamboni. USAC-130 gunships covertly flying out of Ethiopia pounded retreating ICU convoys,^[147][172] and Kenyan troops assisted in capturing retreating ICU forces.^[173] Local residents in southern Somalia reportedKenyan Defence Forces (KDF) convoys driving over the border, and residents in theAfmadow district of southern Somalia reported witnessing AC-130's pursuing and killing ICU troops.^[174] American airstrikes focused on decapitating the ICU leadership, in one instance killing Sheikh Abdullahi Nahar, a popular leader of the movement.^[175]Cruise missiles were fired at ICU positions on 8 January 2007.^[176] American forces reportedly killed hundreds of Somali fighters and civilians in a 'killing zone' between the Kenyan border, the Indian Ocean and advancing US backed Ethiopian troops.^[177] American air power was used against villages in southern Somalia, resulting in significantcivilian casualties and displacement. In one attack seventy-three nomadic herders and their livestock were killed in a US air strike.^[178][174] Somali elders and residents in the town ofDhobley estimated 100 civilians had been killed in US/ENDF airstrikes.^[179] In another, US aircraft bombed a wedding ceremony.^[180] After American involvement in the invasion became public knowledge, the Ethiopian government halted US AC-130 attacks from its military bases.^[172]

The United States admitted to conducting a strike against targets that they claimed were suspectedal-Qaeda operatives. An admission to a second air attack was made later in January.^[181] Initially, the US claimed that it had successfully targeted al-Qaeda operatives responsible for the1998 embassy bombings, but later retroactively downgraded those killed to being 'associates with terrorists'.^[115] Al-Shabaab militia suffered several losses in this period, resulting in a temporary loss of command and control over the organization.^[182]The Pentagon's announcement of air attacks in Somalia during the Ethiopian offensive confirmed the belief of many analysts that the US was involved in the invasion.^[178][174] United Nations Secretary-GeneralBan Ki-moon publicly expressed concern that the American attacks would escalate the conflict.^[172]

At the start of January, the Ethiopian government claimed it would withdraw "within a few weeks"^[183] The TFG announced that the rivaling Islamic forces had been defeated and that no further major fighting was expected to take place.^[184] After theFall of Mogadishu, the security situation began to rapidly deteriorate and warlords who had been removed by the Islamic Courts began to reassert themselves.^[185][186] On 7 January, anti-Ethiopian protests broke out in Mogadishu, with hundreds of residents hurling stones and shouting threats towards ENDF troops. Ethiopian troops opened fire on the crowd after stones struck their patrol car, resulting in the death of two, including a 13-year boy. That same night a former ICU official was also assassinated in the city by gunmen.^[187][188] On 13 January, the TFG imposedmartial law. The directives, which included a ban on public meetings, attempts to organize political campaigns and major media outlets, was enforced by Ethiopian troops. Warlord militia checkpoints began reappearing on Mogadishu roads and insecurity started once again returning to the city.^[178] On 9 January 2007, TFG president Abdullahi Yusuf landed at Mogadishu airport and was escorted by Ethiopian troops to the presidential palace,Villa Somalia.^[189]

The TFG proved to be incapable of controlling Mogadishu,^[190] or of surviving on its own without Ethiopian troops.^[74] Most of the population of the city opposed the TFG and perceived it to be a puppet government.^[190] Themilitary occupation was marked by indiscriminate violence towards civilians by the Ethiopian army and TFG. Homes were raided in search of ICU loyalists, with lootings, beatings and executions of suspected collaborators commonplace.^[191] Several high-ranking figures of the TFG, including ex-speakerSharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, were fired for calling for a compromise with the ICU.^[192] Members of the TFG present inNairobi were threatened with expulsion by Kenyan foreign ministerRaphael Tuju after they publicly called for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops.^[193]

On 19 January, insurgents in Mogadishu launched an assault on the ENDF/TFG heldVilla Somalia. The ICU claimed responsibility for the attack, declaring it as part of a "new uprising".^[194][195] The following day an ENDF convoy in the city came under ambush. Residents reported that the Ethiopian troops had responded by firing into crowds indiscriminately.^[194][196] The incidents began sparking concern of an upstart Islamist insurgency.^[197] Mogadishu was divided into two segments, one controlled by the ENDF/TFG and the other by emerging resistance movements.^[198] By the end of the month, a new ICU field commander was selected for theBanaadir region (Mogadishu and its environs) and many of the organization's fighters regrouped. At the same timeguerrilla warfare was being waged in the southern regions of the country, with heavy losses being inflicted on ENDF/TFG forces.^[199]

The African Union's involvement in the war came at the insistence of both Ethiopia and the United States for the organization to take over the role of 'regime changer'. In effect, the newly planned AU military operation in Somalia was an attempt to legitimize the Ethiopian invasion and TFG. According to Cocodia, "AMISOM was more a tool for regime change than it was a peace operation."^[200] Within the African Union there was significant skepticism about the legitimacy of the Ethiopian military occupation.^[201] On 20 February 2007, the United Nations granted authorization for the deployment of a peacekeeping mission by the African Union, known as theAfrican Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM). The mission's stated primary objective was to provide support for a national reconciliation congress in Somalia.^[202] AMISOM's deployment served as an exit strategy for Ethiopian troops, as their presence was inflaming an insurgency.^[203]

From 2007 to 2009, AMISOM was predominantly composed of troops from Uganda, Burundi, and a few Kenyans. During 2007, the operation relied heavily onUgandan Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF), as Uganda played a crucial role in offering support to the initiation of the mission. By the end of the year, Burundian troops also joined the effort. AMISOM's initial mandate did not permit the use of offensive force, resulting in limited involvement in the conflict between Ethiopian forces and the insurgency. This dynamic led to growing tensions between AMISOM and the ENDF, exacerbated by a lack of transparency from Ethiopia regarding its objectives within Somalia.^[204] TheEuropean Union was reportedly 'exceptionally unhappy' about the heavy US support for the December invasion, and held back funds for the newly created AMISOM mission for several months.^[65]

Days beforeAMISOM deployed in Somalia, violence in Mogadishu began rapidly escalating.^[205] On 6 March 2007, the first African Union troops landed atMogadishu airport alongside three military vehicles.^[206]

Early 2007 saw Somalis rally behind what was referred to as themuqawama (resistance) orkacdoon (uprising).^[80] In late February and early March 2007, insurgent attacks on ENDF/TFG forces in Mogadishu became a daily occurrence, growing in both complexity and sophistication.^[207] During March, the resistance began in earnest with units of Somaliguerillas engaging inhit-and-run attacks on Ethiopian military positions in Mogadishu. The Ethiopian military response was characterized by large scale and indiscriminate artillery and aerial bombardments of civilian areas.^[41] That month Ethiopian and TFG troops began suffering mounting casualties to the insurgency.^[208] On 15 March 2007, TFG PresidentAbdullahi Yusuf accused ICU rebels in Mogadishu of being responsible for shellingVilla Somalia with mortars moments after he arrived. In a telephone interview withal-Sharq al-Awsat, President Yusuf declared that no ICU leadership would be allowed to partake in the national reconciliation process.^[209] In the ensuing days, insurgent activities intensified further. Between 16 and 18 March 2007, there was a rapid escalation in attacks, accompanied by an increase inmortar fire volume. A large ENDF convoy was ambushed, leading to a major battle nearMogadishu port, and a high-ranking TFG regional police commander was assassinated inKismayo.^[210] The TFG soon began to run into increasing opposition from remnants of the Islamic Courts Union, and despite moving much of the government in January to Mogadishu, many ministers chose to remain in Baidoa.^[211]

During 2007, members of the Islamic Courts led the resistance to the occupation, attracting significant support from Somalis in theBanaadir region and fromSomalis across the world.^[198]Al-Shabaab did not heavily participate in the insurgency or large scale fighting for much of 2007, opting instead to carry out bombings and assassinations while further establishing itself.^[212]

By the end of March, the fightingintensified in Mogadishu and more than a thousand people, mostly civilians, were killed. ICU insurgents,Hawiye clan militia, volunteers and other Islamist groups engaged in fierce rounds of fighting in dense urban eras for several weeks during March and April against ENDF/TFG forces.^[128] In a bid to crush the insurgency, Ethiopian/TFG forces besieged entire neighborhoods and initiated a campaign ofmass arrests. Ethiopian troops launched major offensives in the city, utilizing large scale bombardments with rockets and artillery on Mogadishu neighborhoods deemed to be insurgent strongholds. On several occasions the ENDF also occupied and looted the city's hospitals. Ethiopian troops were primarily responsible for the large scale bombardment and significant civilian losses that occurred in the city during March and April 2007.^[213] The Ethiopians were surprised by the intensity of the resistance and began unleashing their firepower on the city in response.^[80]Human Rights Watch reported that the Ethiopian army extensively utilizedBM-21 Grad rocket shelling to bombard densely populated Mogadishu neighborhoods, which the organization described as a violation of international humanitarian law.^[128]

During the fierce fighting, the Ethiopian army reportedly engaged in thecarpet bombing of neighborhoods. TFG PresidentAbdullahi Yusuf announced in a radio address that "any place from which a bullet is fired, we will bombard it, regardless of whoever is there."^[214] The presence of Ethiopian troops reinforced theauthoritarian behavior of the TFG.^[198]Time magazine reported that the battles raging in the Mogadishu at the time were 'some of the most savage fighting' the capital had ever experienced.^[215] AnIlyushin Il-76 military transport plane was struck by insurgent RPG fire on 9 March,^[216] and another Il-76was shot down on 23 March while it was taking off fromMogadishu airport.^[217] The bodies of ENDF troops were dragged through the streets during the fighting for the city and an Ethiopianhelicopter gunship was shot down by Somali fighters using portablesurface-to-air missiles.^[218][219]

By April, a third of Mogadishu's buildings were in ruins along with much of the city's modest economic infrastructure.^[41] According to Kenyan journalistSalim Lone, ENDF and TFG forces deliberately blockaded the delivery of urgently needed humanitarian supplies and food in an attempt to 'terrify and intimidate' civilians associated with those challenging the military occupation.^[220] The Ethiopians characterized the violence in this period as being part of a 'final push' against the rebels,^[221] but the fierce fighting in Mogadishu during March and April 2007 failed to quell the growing insurgency.^[213]

TheOgaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) issued a statement declaring its solidarity with the insurgency,^[222] and along with other armed groups in Ethiopia - escalated theinsurgency in the Ogaden in response to the invasion.^[17] The Ethiopian government accused ICU fighters of fighting alongside the ONLF during theApril 2007 Abole raid.^[223]

In mid-2007, as Ethiopian troops were getting mired in the insurgency, Prime MinisterMeles Zenawi publicly stated that the Ethiopian government had "made a wrong political calculation" by invading Somalia. Many Mogadishu businessman and civil leaders reported that they had been unjustly labelled as beingal-Qaeda, following which they were ransacked by ENDF/TFG forces.^[224] On 3 June 2007, a truck bomb attempted to assassinate TFG prime ministerAli Mohamed Ghedi.^[225] In July 2007, the insurgency had into spread to the greaterBanaadir region,Middle Shabelle,Lower Shabelle and theJubba Valley.^[208] After a short lull in the fighting during August 2007 that saw Meles Zenawi claim the fighting to be over,^[226] violence in Mogadishu escalated sharply that same month. Ethiopian troops utilized tanks andheavy artillery to bombard insurgent strongholds in the capital, resulting in the worst mass exodus in the city's history.^[208] TheENDF utilizedwhite phosphorus munitions in residential areas of the city, resulting in civilian fatalities.^[66] The escalating insurgency resulted in the deployment of an additional 10,000 Ethiopian troops in Mogadishu and its environs.^[198] During September 2007, theAlliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) was formed.Al-Shabaab spokesman Mukhtar Robow stated that the group did not recognize and had no relationship with the ARS.^[227]

As fighting in Mogadishu escalated, ICU insurgents in southern Somalia found a window of opportunity and peacefully captured the town ofDhobley near the Kenyan border in mid-October.^[228] At the end of October 2007, some of the heaviest fighting in months broke out between the ENDF and ICU insurgents in the capital when Ethiopian troops launched an offensive on ICU positions.^[229] From 8–16 November, another large scale multi-day battle occurred in Mogadishu; during which the bodies of Ethiopian troops were dragged through the city streets.^[230] By November, small pockets of Islamic Courts Union control were appearing in various places across the country.^[231] In December 2007, the ENDF withdrew from the strategic town ofGuriel, which was then taken quickly over by insurgents.^[232]

At the end of the year, theUNHCR estimated 1,000,000 people had been displaced by the war.^[35] Thousands of Somalis had been killed by the Ethiopian army.^[233] The United Nations reported the crisis as being the worst ever humanitarian crises in Africa. The TFG announced that most of the country was not under its control and claimed that the ICU was regrouping, which the Ethiopian government denied.Al-Jazeera reported that fighting between the ENDF/TFG and Islamic Courts forces in 2007 had resulted in several thousand civilian deaths in Mogadishu.^[234]

The Ethiopians and Transitional Federal Government had little public support, and Ethiopian troops rarely conductedpatrols due to frequent losses to Somali insurgents.^[235] ENDF military losses had reached unsustainable levels by the end of 2007^[236] and an excess of 50,000 ENDF troops were deployed in Somalia.^[22] Thousands of Ethiopian troops had been killed during the fighting for Mogadishu in 2007.^[233]Oxford Analytica observed at the end of 2007 that the Ethiopian army aimed to win awar of attrition against the insurgency,^[237] but Ethiopia was effectively bogged down and facing a multi front war, with no prospect of victory.^[238] Throughout the year the ENDF had repeatedly claimed it was drawing down its forces in Somalia, though none occurred.^[239] The tactics of Somalis fighting the military occupation increasingly came to resemble theIraqi insurgency. The presence of US militaryreconnaissance aircraft over Mogadishu was observed by journalists and rumor had spread among the population thatUS Special Forces were aiding Ethiopian troops in the city.^[240] According to ProfessorAbdi Ismail Samatar, as the insurgency grew in strength, it became clear to the Americans that the Ethiopian military occupation was doomed to fail, prompting them to focus on engineering a split within the Islamic resistance movement.^[80]

Many members and affiliates of the Islamic Courts Union had been killed during the invasion, leaving a vacuum for the small group of several hundred youth that served as the ICU's Shabaab militia to gain prominence.^[241][26] Many ordinary citizens had beenradicalized by the US-backed Ethiopian invasion, enabling al-Shabaab to firmly embed itself in the regions social, economic and political environment.^[242] The Ethiopian invasion was the group's primary catalyst formobilization among the population and it garnered substantial support from across clan lines. Despite its hardline ideology, it was widely perceived as a genuine resistance force against themilitary occupation by many Somalis, and while not universally popular, it was widely acknowledged for its formidability and effectiveness in pushing out Ethiopian troops. Heavy handed tactics and blatant disregard for civilian life by the Ethiopians rallied many to support al-Shabaab as it successfully branded itself as the most determined and uncompromising Somali resistance faction.^[47][4] The group was not a monolithic entity at the time and for several years following as effectively represented an alliance of insurgent groups.^[243]

Al-Shabaab forces carried out the firstsuicide attack of the war's insurgency phase on 27 March 2007, against an ENDF checkpoint in Tarbuunka, Mogadishu, using acar bomb. The explosion killed 63 Ethiopian soldiers and wounded another 50. The operation was reported to have been made in retribution for the torture and rape of a Somali woman at gunpoint by Ethiopian troops.^[244] Adam Salad Adam, was later announced as the bomber responsible for the operation. It was the first filmed suicide attack in Somalia, and a Shabaab propaganda film was released two days after it occurred.^{[245][246][247]}

By the beginning of 2008, insurgent pressure had mounted on the Ethiopian and TFG troops in the south-central regions of Somalia. TheShabeelle, theJubba Valley along with theBay andBakool regions in particular became hot spots. Islamist fighters gained strength and were able to move from different towns with little resistance as they had accrued significant public support. What had at first seemed to be a series of probes soon morphed into a significant insurgent offensive against Ethiopian and TFG forces.^[208] At the start of the year substantial numbers of Ethiopian troop were still deployed in Somalia. No drawdown of forces had occurred since their arrival.^[248] During January 2008,Seyum Mesfin, the Ethiopian Foreign Minister claimed that Mogadishu and Somalia had significantly improved since the invasion and that there were no longer any 'no go zones' in the country.^[249] More than 60% of Mogadishu's population had fled the city by the start of the year.^[250]Philippe Lazzarini, the United Nations' top humanitarian official, declared Somalia to be the worst humanitarian crisis in Africa and nearly the worst in the world.^[251]

The TFG parliament was purged of opposition figures and represented a narrow coalition of Somali society. The government was besieged and dysfunctional, with virtually no progress being made for political transition. The government was plagued with charges of corruption and abuse, including the obstruction of relief aid deliveries.^[237] The TFG's police and military forces were notoriously undisciplined, committing numerous acts of murder and sexual violence against civilians. The security forces effectively operated as uniformed clan militia who were loyal to their individual commanders and only nominally under the control of the government. In many instances they were hostile to one another and internal splits even resulted in shootouts between units as they fought over control of revenue from illegal checkpoints.^[252] During 2008, TFG PresidentAbdullahi Yusuf began undermining the new Prime Minister,Nur Hassan Hussein. PM Nur had replaced PMAli Gedi in November 2007, who was widely viewed as corrupt and an impediment to the reconciliation process. In an attempt to undermine an emerging alliance between opposition groups and PM Nur, President Yusuf had TFG forces engage in widespread looting at theBakaara Market in order to impede Nur's effort. Much of the criminality in south Somalia during 2008 was linked to TFG security forces. In April 2008,Oxford Analytica observed that the TFG was 'little more' than a collection of armed rival groups.^[253]

In early 2008, a UN report alleged that ENDF, TFG, and AMISOM forces were profiting millions from arms trafficking in Somalia. The Swiss newspaperLe Temps reported that the large volume of Ethiopian military arms and ammunition being sold suggested high-level involvement within the ENDF as commanders often resold weapons seized from insurgents for profit. While the Ethiopian Defense Ministry was seemingly unaware, it was observed that such large-scale trafficking would have been impossible without complicity from top ENDF figures.^[254]

Islamist insurgents began adopting sophisticated strategies to win greater public support and legitimacy. To fill in the void left by the Transitional Federal Government, insurgents began to deploy mobile Sharia courts to administer justice while apprehending criminals. They also began clan conflict mediation and distributing aid to the impoverished. Attacks on highway bandits and militia checkpoints became frequent.^[208] The insurgency waged an increasingly complex war against the ENDF and TFG. A targetedassassination campaign was initiated against the TFG, primarily aimed at the National Security Agency (NSA), resulting in many NSA agents and informants being assassinated in 2008. Insurgent attacks further increased in complexity and sophistication, with attacks killing scores of Ethiopian and TFG troops weekly.^[208] In February 2008,Al Shabaab captured the town ofDinsoor after probing it several times. This marked a change in their strategy which previously focused mainly on the capitalMogadishu.^{[255][256][257]} Al-Shabaab began governing territory for the first time in 2008 as it started taking control of significant tracts of southern Somalia.^[39][258] In March, the ICU seized the city ofBuloburde and freed many prisoners.^[259] At the end of March 2008 a battle erupted in Mogadishu after TFG forces began robbing a marketplace, resulting Islamist insurgents inflicting heavy losses on the TFG forces after they came to defend the merchants.^[260]

In theOgaden (Somali Region), theOgaden National Liberation Front, which had declared solidarity with the insurgency against Ethiopian troops in Somalia, engaged in repeated skirmishes with the ENDF. During 2008, the Ethiopian government did not have effective control of much of the Ogaden. Addis Ababa began calling on thePuntland andSomaliland regions to assist it in dismantling ONLF networks within Somalia. Puntland security services arrested members of the ONLF central committee inGarowe, while Somaliland security forces raided ONLF arms caches inBurao. The ONLF reported that Puntland had turned over several of its leading members to Ethiopian security forces.^[261]

During the April 2008Battle of Mogadishu, theal-Hidaya Mosque massacre was carried out by Ethiopian troops, inflaming the insurgency.^[262]Tigrayan ENDF troops repeatedly looted Mogadishu'sBakaara market and Somali telecom companies such asHormuud became a target for looting and vandalism by the Ethiopian army.^[263]Voice of America reported that month that the insurgency was effectively being waged by two distinct groups, the nationalist leaning ICU insurgents and the increasingly international jihadist oriented al-Shabaab. Residents reported that Islamic Courts insurgents had far more popular support than al-Shabaab and receiving significant funds from both the local business communities and theSomali diaspora.^[264] The boldest insurgent expansion occurred in April 2008, when Islamist fighters seized control of Jowhar, only 90 km away from the capital Mogadishu.^[208][265] In late May,Jilib andHarardhere fell under the control of insurgents, who then began advancing on the strategic southern port city ofKismayo.^[266] Representatives of both the Islamic Courts and al-Shabaab entered into a secretive agreement to allow the clan militia in power to remain,^[267] though al-Shabaab overran the city later in August.^[268]

On 3 March 2008, theUnited States launchedcruise missiles on the town ofDhobley where insurgent leaderHassan Turki was reported to have been present. According toAP, US officials claimed the town was held byIslamic extremists but gave few details to the press.^[269][270] Dhobley was the last town the ICU held a year prior and it had been bombed by US aircraft in that period.^[269] A month later on 1 May 2008, USTomahawk missiles bombardedDhusamareb resulting in the assassination ofal-Shabaab leaderAden Hashi Eyrow along with another senior commander and several civilians. The attack did nothing to slow down the groups participation in theinsurgency.^[271] The assassination of Ayro during early 2008 resulted in a sharp radicalization of al-Shabaab.^[272] The killing of Ayro led to foreign fighters integrating within the ranks of the organization and resulted in the accession ofAhmed Godane as Emir. This change in leadership was facilitated by American intervention and had significant effect on Shabaab's future decision making regarding the usage of tactics such assuicide bombing.^[47][273]

On 18 March 2008, the US designated al-Shabaab a terrorist organization.^[253] According to theInstitute for Security Studies, the designation of al-Shabaab as aterrorist organization was an obstacle to the ongoing peace process, as by mid-2008 the popularity of the insurgency had indicated there was a, "thin line if any, between the UIC, Al Shabab and the Somali people"^[274] The terror designation proved to be damaging as it isolated moderate voices among the Islamist resistance movement and gave al-Shabaab further reason to push against peace talks.^[272]

By mid-2008, al-Shabaab, Islamic Courts Union loyalists and supporters of theAlliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) were the primary insurgent forces operating in Somalia.^[275] The Mogadishu-Afgooye-Baidoa highway became a focal point for ICU and al-Shabaab insurgents, while attacks also began escalating in and aroundBaidoa. By July, ICU forces controlled the cities ofBeledweyne andWajid.^[276][277] That month forces loyal to the ICU forces fought the ENDF overHiiraan region^[278][279] and fighting continued in the capital.^[280] The ENDF shelled the western part of Beledweyne with rocket and mortar fire, resulting in an exodus of civilians^[281] and the city saw fierce fighting between Courts fighters and the Ethiopian army in the following weeks.^[282]

During June a faction of theARS and theTFG signed a ceasefire agreement after months of talks inDjibouti. The agreement was met with resistance from elements within the TFG, chiefly PresidentAbdullahi Yusuf.^[283] The Djibouti Peace Process called for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia.^[204] During June 2008 the ICU publicly declared it would continue its attacks on ENDF/TFG bases^[284] and a new Islamic court was opened inJowhar.^[285] At the time the TFG was crippled by infighting and largely under the control of warlords as insurgent attacks worsened by the day.^[286]

By mid-2008, President Yusuf had lost all the support he had accumulated in the international community. His primary backer, Ethiopia, had also become tired of the TFG president only offering military answers to serious political issues.^[287] Many members of the ICU and other resistance factions such as Al-Shabaab were alienated bySharif Sheikh Ahmed's conduct during the Djibouti negotiations, particularly after he signed the peace deal without consulting field commanders-despite the continued presence of Ethiopian troops. ICU personnel in Mogadishu during this period viewed Sharif's behavior as unprincipled.^[288]

As the insurgency gained most of the territory that had been lost by the Islamic Courts Union during December 2006 and January 2007, fractures began appearing between the different insurgent factions over the Djibouti Agreement. In Beledweyne andJalalaqsi, the insurgents in power distanced themselves from both al-Shabaab and the ARS.^[208] Al-Shabaab was estimated to be 2,000 strong by theAU during 2008,^[25] an increase from several hundred at the end of 2006.^[26]

During Autumn of 2008, the insurgency controlled more than 80% of the territory that had been previously lost in the invasion.^[41] As the situation rapidly deteriorated for themilitary occupation in mid-2008, Ethiopian troops started experiencing desertions. The ENDF began to draw down its forces deployed in Mogadishu and across towns in Somalia.^[208][42] The occupation had a 'corrosive effect' on the ENDF^[42] and the Somalia deployment was viewed as ahardship post.^[289] Ethiopian troops sustained heavy casualties in the war before the Djibouti Peace Process called for their withdrawal.^[204] More than 80% of TFG military and security forces, nearly 15,000 personnel, deserted the government by the end of 2008.^[43] The remaining TFG forces suffered from low morale and also experienced desertions, with many troops continually selling their weapons at local arms markets; only for the weapons to come into the hands of insurgents.^[208] During September 2008 fierce battles raged between the insurgency and ENDF in the capital.^[290]

By October 2008, virtually all opposition groups in the Ethiopian parliament had come to the consensus that the ENDF should be withdrawn from Somalia.^[291] On 26 October, a ceasefire agreement was signed between theAlliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia and the TFG. It was to go into effect on 5 November.^[292]

By November 2008, insurgency had effectively won. The majority of south and central Somalia, along with the capital was now under the control of Islamist factions. Ethiopia had redeployed much of its army out of Somalia by the end of the year.^[42] The success of the insurgents largely represented ordinary Somalis desire to see an end to the anarchy and occupation, as the TFG was dysfunctional.^[283] That same month, ICU insurgents controlled the cities ofJowhar andBeledweyne.^[294] The TFG lost control of the vital port cityMerca when the city fell to the insurgency. Al-Shabaab was consolidating a string of military successes and soon began threatening Mogadishu.^[192] On 14 November Shabaab forces pushed only 15 km from Mogadishu near ENDF troops positions.^[268] Other insurgent factions, such as the Islamic Courts captured towns such as Elas, only 16 km away from the capital.^[295] Despite the Ethiopian presence in Mogadishu, by November 2008 insurgents openly walked on the streets.^[295]

By the end of 2008, al-Shabaab had emerged as one Somalia's most dominant insurgent factions, eclipsing the influence of the Islamic Courts. Some foreign diplomats feared that al-Shabaab would wage an all out war against other insurgents following the Ethiopian withdrawal.^[296] In October 2008, fighters loyal to the Islamic Courts Union and al-Shabaab fought each other inBalad.^[208] By the end of 2008, while al-Shabaab had gained substantial popularity for its fight against the Ethiopians, much of the Somali public that once supported the group had grown disillusioned due to its increasingly heavy-handed tactics.^[114]

Mired by infighting, the TFG was once again on the brink of collapse.^[283] PresidentAbdullahi Yusuf admitted that the country was slipping to the insurgency and "raised the prospect his government could completely collapse." Ethiopia announced it would withdraw its troops from Somalia by the end of 2008 on 28 November.^[268]

After long talks inDjibouti over a ceasefire between theTFG and theAlliance for the Reliberation of Somalia, agreement was reached in late November that parliament be doubled in size to include 200 representatives of the ARS along with 75 representatives of the civil society.^[297] A new president and prime minister would be elected by the new parliament, and a commission to look into crimes of war would be established.^[298] A new constitution was also agreed to be drafted.^[299] TheInternational Crisis Group issued a statement declaring that, despite the international community's reluctance to engage with the Islamist opposition, the only viable path to stabilizing the security situation was to reach out and engage directly with its leaders.^[300]

In December 2008, the TFG parliament moved to impeach PresidentAbdullahi Yusuf, accusing him of being a dictator and an obstacle to peace.^[301] After TFG prime ministerNur Hassan had blamed Yusuf for the TFG's failures, Yusuf had fired him without the required approval of parliament.^[302] The TFG once again found itself based largely out ofBaidoa and theAfrican Union released a statement declaring the insurgency controlled most the country.^[303] That month President Yusuf resigned after stating that he had lost control of the country to Islamist insurgents.^[45] African Union troops began discussing withdrawing from Somalia and requested the Ethiopians help them quit Mogadishu as well.^[304] Ethiopian presidentMeles Zenawi declared the mission had been a success, but the operation had had proved to be effectively futile as the transitional government Ethiopia had backed during the war found itself completely powerless in the lead up to the ENDF withdrawal.^[305]

TheTFG failed to make any meaningful impact on the ground during is tenure and presided over one of the bloodiest periods in modern Somali history.^[306] During January 2009, the first Transitional Federal Government collapsed andal-Shabaab overran the seat of the government inBaidoa.^[307] ENDF troops withdrew out of Somalia that month, ending the Ethiopian military occupation, and former Islamic Courts Union leaderSharif Sheikh Ahmed was elected as the 7thpresident of Somalia at the end of January.^[308][309]

Early during December 2008,Ethiopia announced it would withdraw its troops fromSomalia shortly, and but later stated that it would first help secure the withdrawal of theAMISOM peacekeepers fromBurundi andUganda before withdrawing. The quick withdrawal of theAMISOM peacekeepers was seen as putting additional pressure on theUnited Nations to provide peacekeeping.^[310]

On 12 January 2009, the last ENDF troops departed from Mogadishu, ending the two year long occupation of the capital.^[45][36] Thousands of residents came toMogadishu Stadium to cheer the withdrawal, and for a period of time the city remained quiet as rivaling insurgent factions cooperated.^[308] The Ethiopian occupation mostly failed.^[40] By the time of the withdrawal, the TFG possessed control over only a few streets and buildings in Mogadishu with the rest of the city coming under control of Islamist factions, particularlyShabaab.^[37] The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops sapped al-Shabaab of the widespread support it had enjoyed from civilians and across clan lines during the occupation.^[258] The groups significant support from theSomali diaspora dwindled in response to the usage of terror tactics.^[311] However, the withdrawal came too late to have a substantial impact on the al-Shabaab's transformation into a formidable oppositional force.^[312]

After the parliament took in 200 officials from the 'moderate' Islamist opposition,ARS leader Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was elected TFG President on January 31, 2009.^[309] Al Shabaab rejected any peace deal and continued to take territories, including Baidoa. Another Islamist group,Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a, which is allied to the TFG and supported by Ethiopia, continued to attack al-Shabaab.^{[313][314][315]} Al-Shabaab accused the new TFG President of accepting the secular transitional government and have continued the civil war since he arrived in Mogadishu at the presidential palace.^[316]

Islamist insurgents, ENDF troops, TFG forces, AMISOM forces, and other involved parties in the conflict sustained considerable casualties. The true extent of these losses remains uncertain, primarily due to a lack of transparency from the involved parties and a dearth of reporting on casualties.

Ethiopian forces in Somalia sustained heavy casualties^[317][318] but the extent and figure of losses remain uncertain, primarily due tocensorship on the war enforced by the Ethiopian government from 2006 to 2009. In early 2007,NBC News reported that inAddis Ababa, a blackout of information regarding the war prevailed. Opposition groups in theEthiopian Parliament to the rulingTPLF were never informed on the number of soldiers who had been killed in Somalia, a policy which the TPLF continued until and after the withdrawal.^{[319][291][320]}Urban warfare in Mogadishu proved to be especially difficult for the Ethiopian army and caused heavy losses.^[321] Thousands of Ethiopian troops had been killed during fierce fighting for Mogadishu during 2007.^[233] A January 2009 report by an independent regional security agency estimated at least 3,773 Ethiopian troops had died in Somalia since late 2006.^[322] Al-Shabaab operations between 2007 and 2009 had inflicted over a thousand fatalities on Ethiopian troops.^[323] By the end of 2007, ENDF casualties had reached an 'unsustainable level'. Somali witness accounts in Mogadishu estimated a rate of approximately 200 Ethiopian casualties weekly.^[236] Independent experts claimed the ENDF casualty rate was around 100 troops a week by the end of the occupation. Estimates of losses are further complicated by the practice of ENDF troops in Somalia routinely disguising themselves in SomaliTFG uniforms to conceal their presence.^[236][324] Shortly after the January 2009 withdrawal,Meles Zenawi publicly declined to disclose the number of ENDF casualties incurred during the occupation, stating on national television:

''...regarding the details on those killed or wounded in Somalia, I think the House does not need to know about how many were killed or wounded...I also think that I do not have an obligation to present such report."^[320]

The figures forAMISOM troops killed in Somalia from their deployment in early 2007 to 2009 has also never been publicly revealed.African Union officials only publicly commented on casualty estimates on their entire operation for the first time in 2023.^[325] AMISOM suffered several hundred casualties, but the figure from 2006 to 2009 is unknown.Ugandan Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF), was one of the largest AMISOM contingents, but never published figures on troop casualties.^[324][326] Troops deployed to Mogadishu from TFG President Yusuf's home region ofPuntland in support of his government suffered heavy casualties.^[287]

Ethiopian troops andTransitional Federal Government forces committed serioushuman rights abuses andwar crimes, including murder, rape, assault, and looting. In the December 2008 report 'So much to Fear'Human Rights Watch warned that since the ENDF had invadedSomalia was facing a humanitarian catastrophe on a scale not witnessed since the early 1990s. They went on to accuse theTFG of terrorizing the citizens ofMogadishu and theENDF for increasing violent criminality.^[327]Amnesty International stated testimony it had received during the conflict suggested all parties had committed war crimes, but that Ethiopian troops were the worst violators.^[328] The ENDF and allied militia in Somalia were accused ofcrimes against humanity as the conflict became one of the worst humanitarian crises in the Africa. Ethiopian forces utilizedwhite phosphorus munitions in residential areas of Mogadishu, resulting in civilian fatalities.^[66] By November 2007, the figure of displaced from the war topped one million. Around 600,000 people had fled from Mogadishu alone, accounting for 60% percent of the capital's population.^[35]

Under the command of ColonelGabre Heard, nicknamed 'Butcher of Mogadishu', soldiers from theTigrayan Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) participating in the occupation routinely bombed civilian areas and killed thousands.^[329] Reports of atrocities by forces under his command have made him infamous in Somalia.^[120] Ethiopian troops engaged in extensivewartime sexual violence, acts of looting and murder. American reporters touring rural Somalia reported that in village after village, locals had described a reign of terror by the Ethiopian army.^[330]Amnesty International accused the Ethiopian National Defence Force of increasingly engaging in throat-slitting executions of Somalis during early 2008,^[331] including on children in front of their parents.^[328] One of the most notorious incidents was on April 19, 2008, when Ethiopian soldiers committed theal-Hidaya Mosque massacre.^[262][332] After attacks on civilian areas in Mogadishu during 2007, European lawyers considered whether funding for Ethiopia and TFG made the EU complicit in war crimes, the deliberations of which were never made public.^[333][334] Ethiopian PMMeles Zenawi publicly dismissed reports ofwar crimes from the international media and human rights groups as a 'smear campaign' against the ENDF in Somalia.^[335]

In December 2008, theElman Peace and Human Rights Organisation said it had verified that 16,210 civilians had been killed and 29,000 wounded since the start of the war in December 2006.^[33] In 2024 the Somali governments Foreign Minister accused the Ethiopian army of killing 20,000 civilians.^[336][34] TheOgaden National Liberation Front accused the ENDF of hunting down Somalis from theOgaden clan andOromos residing in Somalia forarbitrary detention and executions during the military occupation.^[222]

By the end of the occupation, the majority of the territory seized from theIslamic Courts Union during the December 2006 and January 2007 invasion had fallen under the control of various Islamist andnationalist resistance groups.^[44][47] The invasion failed to empower theTransitional Federal Government, which only controlled parts ofMogadishu and its original 2006 capital ofBaidoa by the last weeks of the military occupation.^[44][258] The Ethiopian army withdrew from Somalia with significant casualties and little to show for their efforts.^[337] The insurgency had achieved its primary goal of removing the Ethiopian military presence from most of Somalia by November 2008^[42] and was successful in achieving several of its most important demands.^[15]

During 2007 and 2008, Somalia plunged into severe levels of armed conflict, marked by frequent assassinations, political meltdown, radicalization, and the growth of an intenseanti-American sentiment. The situation in the country exceeded the worst-case scenarios envisioned by many regional analysts when they first considered the potential impact of an Ethiopianmilitary occupation.^[272] ARoyal Institute of International Affairs report observed that Ethiopian/American support for the TFG instead of the more popular Islamic Courts administration presented an obstacle, not contribution, to the reconstruction of Somalia.^[338] For the Americans the invasion had resulted in nearly the complete opposite of what had been expected, as it had failed to isolate the Islamic movement while solidifying Somali anger to both the United States and Ethiopia. The result of the invasion had been the defeat of Somali Islamists considered to be 'moderate' while strengthening the movements most radical elements.^[330] In 2010, US ambassador to EthiopiaDonald Yamamoto stated that the Ethiopian invasion had been a mistake and "not a really good idea".^[339] By the US military's own metrics, the war in Somalia was never effectively prosecuted. A 2007 study commissioned byUnited States Department of Defense warned that American participation in the war was, "...plagued by a failure to define the parameters of the conflict or its aims; an overemphasis on military measures without a clear definition of the optimal military strategy;"^[340] According to theConciliation Resources report titled'Endless War':^[341]

Military occupation, a violent insurgency, rising jihadism, and massive population displacement has reversed the incremental political and economic progress achieved by the late 1990s in south-central Somalia. With 1.3 million people displaced by fighting since 2006, 3.6 million people in need of emergency food aid, and 60,000 Somalis a year fleeing the country, the people of south-central Somalia face the worst humanitarian crisis since the early 1990s.

As part of the United States'War on Terror, Ethiopia became a key strategic ally for US policy andWestern interests in theHorn of Africa. In 2006, the Ethiopian government established theInformation Network Security Agency (INSA) with support from the United States, modeling it after the American'sNational Security Agency (NSA). Initially tasked with intercepting and analyzing intelligence, particularly from Somalia at the time of the invasion, INSA gradually expanded its role into domestic surveillance. Among its first members wasAbiy Ahmed, who later ascended through the ranks of government and became Ethiopia's Prime Minister.^[342]

As the ENDF withdrew from Somalia, tensions between the differing resistance factions exacerbated.^[42] By the end of 2008, most elements of the pre-invasion Islamic Courts had merged into one of the two wings of theAlliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia or had joinedal-Shabaab. Some Islamic factions continued operating under the ICU banner into 2009 and tended to support the new TFG government led bySharif Ahmed, which described the ICU groups as the governments 'paramilitary'.^[343]

Al-Shabaab was particularly empowered by the occupation, as it established itself as an independent resistance faction in early 2007. The group became battle hardened over the next two years and notably began governing territory for the first time in 2008.^[39][47] In effect the invasion had morphed al-Shabaab from a fringe movement to a dominant insurgent political force.^[344] Instead of eliminating 'Jihadist' activity in Somalia, the Ethiopian invasion had the effect of creating more 'Jihadis' than had existed in the country before.^[258] By the time of the ENDF withdrawal, al-Shabaab's forces had grown significantly in numbers, swelling from just six hundred to several thousand fighters strong since the invasion began.^[26] After the killing of the group's leaderAden Hashi Ayro in 2008, al-Shabaab began publicly courtingOsama bin Laden in a bid to become part ofal-Qaeda, but was rebuffed by bin Laden.^[47] Several months after the ENDF withdrawal,Foreign Affairs noted that al-Qaeda's foothold in Somalia post-occupation was in significant part the result of the invasion.^[344] Following thekilling of Osama bin Laden in 2011, al-Shabaab pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2012.^[47]

A sharp increase in radical recruitment inSomali diaspora in Europe and the United States since 2007 has been linked with the overthrow of the ICU and the Ethiopian military occupation.^[345] This resulted in the first ever American suicide bomber carrying out an attack in Somalia in October 2008.^[346] During 2008 there were an estimated 100 foreign fighters in Somalia, a figure which increased to 450 the next year as al-Shabaab gained strength.^[130] In 2024, Somalia's Minister of Justice Hassan Mo'allin Mohamoud publicly stated the wave of terrorism the country is experiencing was the 'direct result' of the 2006 invasion.^[347]

Attacks off theSomali coast were suppressed byanti-piracy operations carried out by the Islamic Courts Union'scoast guard during 2006. Following the ICUs overthrow, incidents of pirate attack rapidly proliferated during 2007 and 2008.^{[176][348][18]} Top personnel in theSeafarers' Assistance Programme reported that elements of theTFG andPuntland governments were involved in piracy due to lucrative profits.^[348] As the Ethiopian army was being driven from southern and central Somalia by the insurgency, ENDF military bases provided safe havens for Somali pirates who had secured large ransoms; in return for cash payments from the pirates.^[349]

AfterSharif Ahmed had become president at the end of January 2009, the remainingICU groups, supporters of theAlliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia and other insurgent/opposition elements effectively disappeared as members from the organizations merged into new organizations that aligned with their views. Those who did not join the Sharifs government either joined the newly formedHizbul Islam (Islamic Party), which had formed through a merger of several insurgent groups, oral-Shabaab. Mediation had begun between the newly formedHizbul Islam and the new Transitional Government of led Sharif. A growing divide was reported in theAl Shabaab organization that controls much of southernSomalia as a large number of Al Shabaab leaders who had held positions in government during the six-month reign of theIslamic Courts Union. They had reportedly met behind closed doors with the President of the Transitional Government and the TFG had announced thatSharia law would be implemented inSomalia, but it had not acted on it.^[350][351]

By 2009, al-Shabaab started drastically altering its choice of targets and frequency of attacks. The use ofkidnappings and bombings in urban areas significantly grew in use.^[312] The significant support the group had previously enjoyed from theSomali diaspora dwindled in response to the usage of terror tactics.^[311] Ethiopia, the TFG's closest ally during 2004 to 2009, had taken the lead in training and integrating a Somali army but failed. Between 2004 and 2008, over 10,000 Ethiopian trained TFG soldiers deserted or defected to the insurgency. When Ethiopian forces withdrew from Somalia in early 2009, the task of forming a new army was given toAMISOM. At this point there was still no meaningful armychain of command.^[252]

Despite the withdrawal of most ENDF troops following the 2008Djibouti Agreement, there has been a continued occupation of Somalia by theEthiopian army. Two weeks after the January 2009 withdrawal, it was reported that Ethiopian troops had once again crossed the border following the fall ofBaidoa to al-Shabaab.Bereket Simon, spokesman for the Ethiopian government, described the reports as fabrications and responded "The army is within the Ethiopian border. There is no intention to go back,"^[352] In late 2011, Ethiopian troops returned to Somalia (coinciding withKenya's invasion) in large numbers for the first time since their 2009 withdrawal.^[337] In 2014 the Ethiopian troops that deployed to a buffer zone in some parts of southern Somalia were integrated intoAMISOM. Former head of the ICU,Sharif Sheikh Ahmed continues to campaign for the withdrawal of the occupying Ethiopian forces.^[353] On 13 November 2020Bloomberg reported thatEthiopia withdrew thousands of troops from Somalia and redeployed them to fight theTigray War.^[354] In July 2022, as the Tigray War was ongoing, al-Shabaablaunched a major incursion into Ethiopia in order to infiltrate the southernBale Mountains.^[355]

• So Much To Fear: War Crimes and the Devastation of Somalia –Human Rights Watch (December 2008)
• Shell-Shocked Civilians Under Siege in Mogadishu – Human Rights Watch (August 2007)
• Routinely targeted: Attacks on civilians in Somalia –Amnesty International (May 2008)
• "Why Am I Still Here?" The 2007 Horn of Africa Renditions and the Fate of Those Still Missing – Human Rights Watch (October 2008)
• Copy of Djibouti Agreement signed between the ARS and TFG – (9 June 2008)

• Islamic Courts ready for offensive –Al Jazeera English report on ICU insurgents in southern Somalia (14 Sep 2007)
• Mohammed Abdullahi Farah Somalia Piece –Channel 4 report on insurgency in Mogadishu (10 October 2007)
• Opposition fighters gaining ground in Somalia – Al Jazeera English report on insurgent advances across the south (31 Aug 2008)
• Lindsey Hilsum Somalia Piece – Channel 4 report on fighting between Ethiopian troops and insurgents in Mogadishu (3 December 2008)
• Chaos feared in Somalia as Ethiopians pull back – Al Jazeera English report on Ethiopian military withdrawal from Somalia (15 Jan 2009)

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