| Futures studies |
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| Technologyassessment andforecasting |
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Trend analysis is the practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern. In some fields of study, the term has more formally defined meanings.[1][2][3]
Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimate uncertain events in the past, such as how many ancient kings probably ruled between two dates, based on data such as the average years which other known kings reigned.
Inproject management, trend analysis is a mathematical technique that uses historical results to predict future outcome. This is achieved by tracking variances in cost and schedule performance. In this context, it is a project management quality control tool.[4][5]
Instatistics, trend analysis often refers to techniques for extracting an underlying pattern of behavior in atime series which would otherwise be partly or nearly completely hidden bynoise. If thetrend can be assumed to be linear, trend analysis can be undertaken within a formalregression analysis, as described inTrend estimation. If the trends have other shapes than linear, trend testing can be done by non-parametric methods, e.g. Mann-Kendall test, which is a version ofKendall rank correlation coefficient.Smoothing can also be used for testing and visualization of nonlinear trends.
Trend analysis can be also used for word usage, how words change in the frequency of use in time (diachronic analysis), in order to findneologisms orarchaisms. It relates todiachronic linguistics, a field of linguistics which examines how languages change over time. Google provides toolGoogle Trends to explore how particular terms are trending in internet searches. On the other hand, there are tools which provide diachronic analysis for particular texts which compare word usage in each period of the particular text (based ontimestamped marks), see e.g.Sketch Engine diachronic analysis (trends).[6]