The concept of tipping-point states was popularized byNate Silver.
"Tipping-point state" is used to analyze themedian state of aUnited States presidential election. In a list of states ordered by decreasing margin of victory for the winning candidate, the tipping point state is the first state where the combined electoral votes of all states up to that point in the list give the winning candidate a majority in theElectoral College.
The idea of a "tipping-point state" can be interpreted as suggesting acounterfactual, on the assumption that outcomes in different states are stronglycorrelated: if the nationwide vote margin were shifted, but theorder of states by vote margin were unchanged, the tipping-point state would be the state or states in which a change in the state winner would result in a change in the national winner. The term may also refer to the state that would give the second-place candidate a majority of the electoral vote when all states are arranged in order of their vote margins; this is typically, but not always, the same state as in the primary definition.
Because a majority of the electoral vote is required in order to clinch the presidential election in the Electoral College,[a] the tipping-point state for the first-place finisher and the second-place finisher may differ if more than two candidates received electoral votes, or if a shift in the states would leave the electoral vote tied. Tipping-point states may also differ depending on the disposition offaithless electors, on the assumption that certain faithless electors may have chosen to give their vote to the candidate they had pledged to vote for if their vote would have given that candidate a majority of the vote. Because electoral votes are awarded to winners ofWashington, D.C. and certaincongressional districts,[b] it is possible for the tipping-point to be something other than a state.
The tipping-point state is not related to the chronological order in which state-by-state election results are reported, either by media outlets or by state officials. Rather, the media usesdecision desks to project the apparent winners of each state before all the votes are counted, and will announce a state that they project will give a candidate enough electoral votes to become the apparent presidential winner. The tipping-point state can only be determined after all the votes in each state are counted and certified, and thus all the vote margins are accurate. For example, the projection of Joe Biden to have won the state of Pennsylvania in the 2020 election made him the projected winner of the electoral college, but for Biden the tipping point state of the 2020 election was Wisconsin, which was called for him three days prior.
In the2012 presidential election,Barack Obama defeatedMitt Romney in the electoral vote, taking 332 electoral votes compared to 206 for Romney. As with all presidential elections since the1964 election, 270 electoral votes were needed to win a majority in the Electoral College. Obama would still have won a majority of the electoral vote even if he did not win Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, the three states in which he had his smallest margin of victory. However, if Obama had lost those three states as well as Colorado (where he recorded his fourth-smallest margin of victory), he would not have won a majority of the Electoral College. Thus, Colorado was the tipping point state for an Obama victory in 2012.
This table shows the tipping point state for the winning candidate in each presidential election since 1832, without any reassignment offaithless electors.
The following 20 states have been the tipping-point state for the winning candidate (without accounting for any change in the disposition of faithless electors) beginning with the 1832 election:
^Nebraska and Maine award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and award the remainder of their electoral votes based on the winner of each congressional district. Since the1832 presidential election, the vast majority of states have awarded all of their respective electoral votes to the statewide winner, butvarious methods have been used historically. In some cases, such as the1860 United States presidential election in New York, parties have formed fusion tickets in which they agreed to split a state's electoral vote if they won the state.
^19 states andWashington D.C. voted for Obama by a margin of at least 6 percent in 2012.
^The margin by which the winning candidate won the tipping point state.
^The margin by which the winning candidate won the national popular vote.
^The tipping-point state margin subtracted by the national popular vote margin.
^Because third party candidatesJohn Floyd andWilliam Wirt each won several electoral votes, Pennsylvania was the tipping point state for aHenry Clay victory.
^BecauseMillard Fillmore won several electoral votes, and becauseJohn C. Fremont did not appear on the ballot of every state, Pennsylvania was the tipping point state for a Fremont victory.
^Arkansas was the tipping point state for a victory byHoratio Seymour.
^Congress voted to reject the electoral votes of Arkansas and Louisiana on the grounds of election irregularities. If the presidential electors of those states had been accepted by Congress, New Hampshire would have been the tipping point state.
^Broke a possible tie in the Electoral College. As a result,Iowa was the tipping point state for aJohn McCain victory.
^Without assigning faithless electors to the winners of their respective states, Pennsylvania was the tipping point state for a Trump victory.[8] Wisconsin was the tipping point state for aHillary Clinton victory, and was also the tipping point state for a Trump victory if faithless electors are assigned to the winners of their respective states.[9]
^Broke a possible tie in the Electoral College. As a result,Pennsylvania was the tipping point state for aDonald Trump victory.
