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 First edition cover with image of apunched card | |
| Author | Eugene Burdick |
|---|---|
| Language | English |
| Genre | Political fiction |
| Publisher | McGraw Hill |
Publication date | 1964 |
| Publication place | United States |
| Media type | Print (hardback & paperback) |
| Pages | 313 pp (hardback) |
The 480 is apolitical fiction novel byEugene Burdick (1964).[1]
The plot revolves around the political turmoil after theJohn F. Kennedy assassination in 1963. In the novel, a fictitious charismatic character, John Thatch, an engineer, is seeking the nomination for theRepublican Party during the1964 presidential elections. He is described as being contaminated with the "political virus". A handful of political professionals are promoting his nomination, in confrontation with the Party establishment. There exist apparent parallels between Thatch andHenry Cabot Lodge Jr., awrite-in hero at theNew Hampshire primary.
The novel criticizes thesocio-political effects onsociety at large from the use ofcomputers to run massive simulations, which predict the public reaction to certain (proposed) political moves before implementing them. Such simulations make it easy to manipulate the public consciousness.
The "480" in the title denotes the number of groups (by party affiliation,socioeconomic status, location, origin, etc.) that the computer simulation uses to classify the American electorate. The full list of these is reproduced in the Appendix, claimed by the author to be the true list used by theSimulmatics Corporation (real name) in SenatorJohn F. Kennedy'sPresidential campaign in 1960. The cover features anIBM 5081punched card.
The Simulmatics Corporation was created by MIT ProfessorIthiel de Sola Pool, who provided a non-fiction backup toThe 480 inCandidates, Issues, and Strategies: A Computer Simulation of the 1960 Presidential Election, MIT Press, 1964 (with co-authorsRobert P. Abelson andSamuel L. Popkin). They built their model from 130,000 archived interviews in Gallup and Roper polls over a ten-year period. Based on its output, they advised Kennedy that he would benefit from a strong civil rights stand and that he had nothing to lose, and much to gain, by attacking religious bigotry and dealing frankly with his Catholicism.
The 480 has been cited as prefiguring the effect of modern social media and data gathering on politics.[2]