Talk:2007 WD5
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i think SI units should have priority than the imperial ones (Nabukhadnezar (talk)17:48, 21 December 2007 (UTC))[reply]
Agreed, changed.Tpheiska (talk)—Precedingcomment was added at21:59, 21 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]
1. Go tohttp://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi?find_body=1&body_group=sb&sstr=2007WD5
2. Make sure "Ephemeris Type" is set to Observer.
3. Click "Observer Location" and change to @mars (Mars (body center) [500@499]).
4. Click "Time Span" and set to 2008-01-29 to 2008-01-31 STEP 1 minute.
5. (if you want) Table Settings: remove 1,9,23,24. Make sure 20 (Obsrv range & rng rate) is checked.
6. Generate away.
Delta is the distance (in AU) from Mars. Deldot is the change in direction in KM/Sec. The closest distance is currently "2008-Jan-30 09:10" at .0003AU. But do keep in mind that the orbit of this object is not yet well determined.
--Kheider (talk)17:59, 21 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]
New orbital elements have been released! The old data used 25 observations over 29 days, while the new data uses 28 observations over 41 days. The closest distance is now "2008-Jan-30 11:45" at 0.00014AU (~21,000km). This is half the distance of the original estimate. But as the orbit gets better determined any distance greater than about 4000km should be a miss. --Kheider (talk)03:46, 24 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]
New data is coming in. TheMagdalena Ridge Observatory acquired 4 new images on 12/29 and 12/31. There are now 32 observations over a data-arc span of 53 days (2007-11-08 to 2007-12-31). It now looks like the asteroid will miss Mars by ~35,000km. More details to come. Hey, the odds were only 4%! :-) --Kheider (talk)18:29, 1 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I agree with waiting for Horizons or NASA. The new observations moving the asteroid from 21,000km from Mars to a suggested 35,0000km from Mars will not help encourage an impact. But I have no idea how the preliminary data affects the (Dec 28th) uncertainty region of 400,000km. I assume (hope?) the uncertainty region still overlaps Mars. Horizons was down for almost 12 hours. I was hoping that they would put in the new orbital elements. I assume they want to double check all the data. --Kheider (talk)22:11, 1 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I think the probability will go up a little with that data, because 35,000km is well within uncertainty region and that region won't sink very quickly. If I set new uncertainty region as 200,000km and regard it as 3 STD, 35,000km is still within 0.6 STD, which affects prob but not too much. So the probability at the moment should be like 5-6%.Ainu7 (talk)10:01, 2 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
2007/11/08 prediscovery data from Apache Point-Sloan Digital Sky Survey were modified(only timing). New orbit wasn't updated but will be done very soon...Ainu7 (talk)08:30, 4 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Nominal distance changed a little, from 0.0002732AU to 0.0002661AU(reference: NEODyS), won't affect the probability considerably.Ainu7 (talk)15:12, 4 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
New observations coming from theCalar Alto Observatory. It appears the asteroid might pass slightly closer to Mars. The asteroid is nowAPmag +24.5. --Kheider (talk)21:48, 8 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
 | It is requested that anastronomy diagram ordiagrams beincluded in this article toimprove its quality. Specific illustrations, plots or diagrams can be requested at theGraphic Lab. For more information, refer todiscussion on this page and/or the listing atWikipedia:Requested images. |
Could someone create a simple diagram comparing both the size of 2007 WDF and the expected crater on Mars with known earth objects? An illustration of the orbit would help, too. Also, more content about Mars-crosser asteroids would be great. —Viriditas |Talk03:29, 22 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]
What date will it be visible again (move out from behind the moon)?
And, if it does hit mars, will that part of mars be facing the earth, and the impact thus be visible from earth?Ariel. (talk)08:28, 27 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]
A photo of the asteroid would be nice (even if its a point of light)
| It is requested that anastronomy diagram ordiagrams beincluded in this article toimprove its quality. Specific illustrations, plots or diagrams can be requested at theGraphic Lab. For more information, refer todiscussion on this page and/or the listing atWikipedia:Requested images. |
A diagram of the orbit would be nice
70.55.86.184 (talk)08:04, 29 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]
Discovery images can be found at theUniversity of Arizona/ Catalina Sky Survey. I do not known about the copyright status. An orbit diagram can be generated with"External Links: Orbital simulation". I have seen these used on wikipedia before. --Kheider (talk)16:34, 29 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]
Perhaps the tool isn't the most accurate (especially considering how little we know about what's going to happen only a month from now), but is there anything to be said about the proximity of Earth and the asteroid on 12 October 2084? Seethis tool at JPL. --Bossi (talk •gallery •contrib)23:23, 29 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]
To further expand on this idea look at the2003 Mars Passage: TheDec 23rd Solution (41 days) had the asteroid passing 1.2 million km from Mars, while theJan 7th Solution (59 days) has the asteroid passing more then twice as far away at 2.6 million km from Mars. --Kheider (talk)23:57, 9 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Shouldn't it be noted that it could become a moon of Mars if it goes really close to Mars but doesn't hit. (I don't know.)User:Coby2—Precedingunsigned comment added by75.164.224.204 (talk)23:49, 31 December 2007 (UTC)[reply]
Mars upper atmosphere is very thin and would not realistically slowdown the asteroid by a factor of close to 3, allowing it to be captured. (Keep in mind that in the upper atmosphere the escape velocity from Mars will be less than 5km/sec.)Mars can not accelerate and sling shot the asteroid out of the solar system because Marsescape velocity is less than the Suns escape velocity at Mars orbit. Only theGas Giants have enough gravity (relative to the Sun) to accelerate and slingshot asteroids completely out of the solar system. --Kheider (talk)11:51, 1 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
If someone will contact me by email at ebeshore@lpl.arizona.edu, I can supply you with JPEGs of the discovery images.Ed Beshore, Catalina Sky Survey70.56.224.130 (talk)20:49, 2 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
I was thinking of uploading a series of images (from NASA) showing the various uncertainties as they changed. This would go in the history section linked to each text as the number changed.
What do people think, will that look nice?
Maybe an image gallery at the bottom instead, but not interleaved with the text?
Or do we not need an image history at all, and just a single image with the latest data?
Opinions please.Ariel. (talk)20:57, 9 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Mars hasdust storms that regularly cover the whole planet. Anextinction event asteroid should be over 3km in diameter (depending on density, speed and angle). An asteroid 50 meters in diameter (2007 WD5) can level a large city. An asteroid in the 250 meter range (2007 TU24) can alter the short term climate, and thus potentially the world economies, but would not end human life. --Kheider (talk)00:44, 16 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]
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