TheSuffolk University Political Research Center (SUPRC) is anopinion polling center atSuffolk University inBoston, Massachusetts.
Founded in 2002,[1] the center mostly conducts national and statewide polls,[2] conducting many of the latter inNew Hampshire andMassachusetts.[2] On occasion, the center has polledlocal races, such as the2013 mayoral election in Boston, which Suffolk polled for theBoston Herald.[3] The center has also polled onballot issues, such asmarijuana legalization andcharter schools.[4]
The founding and current director is David Paleologos.[2][5][6] Paleologos is also a lecturer in the Political Science and Legal Studies Department of Suffolk University'sCollege of Arts and Sciences[5] and a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Researchers (AAPOR).[7]
Suffolk is one of a handful of well-knownacademic polling centers in the United States; others includeMarist College inNew York (Marist Institute for Public Opinion),Monmouth University in New Jersey (Monmouth University Polling Institute), andQuinnipiac University inConnecticut (Quinnipiac University Polling Institute).[8][9]
The center states that it is "the first research center to make all of the demographiccross-tabulation data for every poll available at no cost."[2] Suffolk began polling "battleground states" inpresidential elections in2008.[9]
In terms ofmethodology, the center uses live telephone calling, including mobile phones.[10] The center began including mobile phones in its samples in 2012, beginning with closely fought campaigns.[11] In the2014 gubernatorial election forgovernor of Massachusetts, the Suffolk University/Boston Herald poll sampled a much higher percentage ofmobile phones (35%) than some other pollsters. Suffolk's polling in the race "tended to be quite accurate, although the differences from some of the other polls were not large."[12] Suffolk predicted that Republican nomineeCharlie Baker would defeat Democratic nomineeMartha Coakley, 46% to 43%, though in actuality, the margin of victory was one percentage point lower.[12] An article published in the AAPOR journalSurvey Practice noted this result in concluding that, "In Democratic-leaning states such as Massachusetts...exceeding state-wide cell-phonebase rates may be necessary to measure candidates' standing accurately."[12]
Suffolk has made use of polling methodologies that combine traditional statewideprobability sampling with additionalnonprobability sampling ofbellwether districts, making use of this technique in its2008New Hampshire primary polls forWHDH, among other races.[13] By the year 2011, the firm's "bellwether predictions have matched election outcomes in 33 of 36 cases, a 'hit rate' of 92%."[13]
In 2014, Suffolk began a partnership withUSA Today and its news network to pollthat year's elections.[14]
In 2016, Suffolk andUSA Today continued their relationship, with SUPRC conducting national polling for the newspaper.[8]
As of September 2020, the polling analysis websiteFiveThirtyEight, led by statisticianNate Silver, had 88 Suffolk polls in its database, and gave the polling center an "A" grade on the basis of its historical accuracy andmethodology, and listed the pollster as having 80% accuracy record in calling races.[10]
In 2021, Suffolk University, along withUSA TODAY, began releasing polls of inner city residents, called "CityView," to examine attitudes toward crime, race, and police practices in cities. The surveys included residents of Milwaukee, Detroit, Los Angeles, Louisville, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Seattle, and Miami.
In 2022, Suffolk University andUSA TODAY teamed up to poll 1000 Russian and Ukrainian residents of the U.S. and recorded attitudes toward world leaders, the current war, President Biden, and world organizations. Suffolk University produced seven polls in the final three weeks leading up to the November 2022 midterm elections. All seven polls correctly predicted the U.S. Senate winners, including the states of Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.
In March 2023, Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com rankings of pollster accuracy put SUPRC at the top of their list of the most accurate pollsters in the midterm election cycle (2021-2022): “Special congratulations are due to Suffolk University…which had the lowest average errors of any pollster that conducted at least five qualifying polls last cycle.” The website realclearpolitics.com rated Suffolk University polling #1 over five election cycles (2014-2022) among pollsters who had polled at least 10 states.
In the 2024 presidential election cycle, Suffolk's statewide and bellwether polls in swing states for president and U.S. Senate were all within the statistical margin of error in the final three weeks leading up to the election (pollster rated). This included 14 out of 14 statistical outcomes. www.suffolk.edu/suprc