 | This article or sectionpossibly contains originalsynthesis. Source material shouldverifiably mention andrelate to the main topic. Relevant discussion may be found on thetalk page.(November 2022) (Learn how and when to remove this message) |
State collapse is the catastrophic breakdown of asovereign state's institutional apparatus, resulting in the inability to sustain amonopoly on the legitimate use of force.[1][2][3]
During periods of state collapse, aprovisional government may be formed, particularly where whatever circumstances have caused the first stages of state collapse have resulted in acoup d'état. Regimes attempting to avert state collapse may become increasingly violent and paranoid, resulting incivil society actors and local leaders losing trust in the ability of the central government to exercise effective control and choosing to defend their interests militarily.[3] Neighboring states orgreat powers may interfere politically, sometime supportingrebel groups. As a result of the collapse of the central government's ability to effectuateeconomic regulation andtaxation, theinformal economy becomes dominant, resulting in declining government resources and a vicious cycle of reduction instate capacity.[3]
While the definitions of "failed state" and "fragile state" have been contested for being "too broad and too vague",[2] foreign policy experts such as Charles T. Call have advocated focusing on extreme cases of "collapsed states" instead, defined as "countries whose state apparatus ceases to exist for a period of several months".[4][2] According to Call, between 1995 and 2005, the main examples of collapsed states includedSomalia, which had a sustained collapse from 1990 to 2004; theSoviet Union in 1991;Yugoslavia in 1992; and possiblyAfghanistan from 1992 to 1995.[4]
Recent scholarship has focused on identifying measurable dimensions of state capacity, building on the institutionalist approach associated withMax Weber.[2] Daniel Lambach, Eva Johais, and Markus Bayer have thus defined state collapse as the inability to: make and enforce binding rules; maintain amonopoly on violence; and collect taxes.[2] Using this framework, Lambach et al. identified 17 collapsed states between 1960 and 2007.[2] The majority of cases were insub-Saharan Africa, involving armed rebellions in countries includingChad,Uganda,Liberia, Somalia,Angola,Zaire,Guinea-Bissau, andSierra Leone, plus Congo-Kinshasa, which collapsed following decolonization from Belgium.[2] The dissolution of the Soviet Union led to state collapse inGeorgia,Bosnia-Herzegovina, andTajikistan.[2] Other cases of state collapse includedLaos, following an attack backed by theUnited States which led to partitioning of the country into spheres of influence;Lebanon, which went through a full-scale civil war; and Afghanistan, where insurgents challenged the communist regime and moved against Soviet intervention.[2]
In 2020, Johais, Bayer and Lambach proposed a dynamic model of the causes of state collapse.[5] In their article inGlobal Change, Peace & Security, they argue that a state collapse happens when 1) opposition groups arm themselves and mobilise against the government; 2) political transitions such as decolonisation or regime change cause existing power structures to be questioned; 3) politics prolong power struggles and undermine existing institutions; 4) repression causes extreme distrust between rulers and the rest of society; 5) factionalism obstructs strengthening of state policies; 6) loss of cohesion within the ruling elite erodes the monopolisation of violence, rule-making, and tax collection; and 7) external interventions contribute to destabilisation.[5]
Islamic scholarIbn Khaldun (1332–1406) produced a general theory of state collapse, transforming the study of history into a "new science".[6] In his eyes, dynasties repeatedly become "sedentary, senile, coercive, pompous, subservient to desire ... liable to divisions in the dynasty." Group feeling (asabiyyah,groupthink) disappears as the dynasty grows senile. After three generations a new invading clique, "restless, alert and courageous", will cause the old dynasty to collapse[7] in accordance with the principle in theBook of Exodus, chapter 20, verse four: God "visits the sins of the fathers onto their children, even unto the third and fourth generation of those that hate Him". Ibn Khaldun was fatalistic: "This senility is a chronic disease which cannot be cured because it is something natural".[8] ProfessorGeoff Mulgan discusses Ibn Khaldun in detail and agrees on the timescale: "There are obvious parallels between the lifespans of individuals and those of ruling groups."[9]
In the case of the USSR, a Marxistrevolutionary wave had formed in which several subordinate regimes in Eastern Europe and Africa collapsed almost simultaneously with the central power.[10]
The Japanese philosopherHajime Tanabe points to the quasi-religious role of the state to mediate between mortal individuals and the eternal universe, so that states regularly collapse; like religious figures, they must undergo a process of death andresurrection. In his view this may account for the perennial popularity of states because they regularly demonstrate their ability to transcend death.[11]
Psychologists[12][13] speak of a "Masada complex" that may drive fanatics to a suicidal, violent last-ditch stand. In atotalitarian state or anideocracy, individuals may develop aclosed mind and anauthoritarian personality, making them more likely to resist threats to the incumbent regime.[14]
According to psychologistErich Fromm it is possible for an entire nation, if they all share the same vices and errors, to become insane—a"folie a millions". Inhumane treatment by the rulers inevitably leads to collapse;
Despots and ruling cliques can succeed in dominating and exploiting their fellow man ... but their subjects react ... with apathy, impairment of intelligence, initiative and skills ... or they react by the accumulation of such hate and destructiveness as to bring about an end to themselves, their rulers and their system. ... if man lives under conditions contrary to his nature and to human growth and sanity, he cannot help reacting.'[15]
Mark Blyth alleges that a democracy can also collapse "if voters don't get what they want and merely affirm the status quo." In these circumstances, voters deprived of real choice may opt for the least democratic option.[16] In a divided, collapsing country lacking civil institutions, or in a closed country attempting reform and openness, the process of democratisation is 'dangerous' and may hasten collapse.[17][18]
In the USSR andApartheid South Africa, the state became 'evil or tyrannical... destroying the institutions of civil society';[19] and inSomalia between 1970 and 1991,Siad Barre changed from 'prophetic rule, to autocracy, to tyranny'.[20] In this contextJohn Kenneth Galbraith regrets the "very slight" amount of research on the nature of political power.[21] Power regularly passes to those who "assert the unknown with the greatest conviction... not necessarily related to intelligence."[22] What we call "power" is, "in practice, the illusion of power."[23] Discussing how the "powerless"Mahatma Gandhi brought about the collapse of militarily "powerful"British India, Galbraith reflects that power, mostly seen as a possession of states and their leaders, would be better viewed as a flow, into and away from "those instruments that enforce it".[24]Martin Wight deplored the "demonic concentrations of power" of the defeated countries in the two world wars. A devout Christian, he saw their "triumphant self-destruction" as "Antichrist moments".[25]
According to political scientists, in anideocracy there must be a ruthless charismatic leader: "the leader is the movement",[26] and all individuals are required to submit to, and worship him.[27] "Followers who lead barren, insecure, frustrated lives obey the leader, not through faith in his vision of a 'Promised land', but because he leads them away from their unwanted selves".[28] When collapse threatens he may insist on a "fight to the finish".
Hitler, according toWalter Langer,[29] had aMessiah complex and saw himself as the "Saviour of Germany" who performed "miracles" with the economy.[30] He was unnaturally fond of his mother, to the extent that Germany became a "mother symbol".[31] His drive to destroy (the Jews, communism, Europe) was an unconscious attempt to resolve hisOedipus complex and the injustices of his childhood.[32][dubious –discuss] He "dismantled the German state ... and replaced it with a war machine".[33] He was swept along by a tide of events.[34]
Mussolini, according toDenis Mack Smith, "was an actor, playing the part that Italians wanted him to be".[35] He was vindictive, sadistic, impulsive, proud and cruel, full of "demonic wilfulness" and did not know right from wrong. When in 1944 he led apuppet state in northern Italy, he "divided Italy in two and initiated 18 months of terrible civil war."[36]Ken Livingstone has comparedSlobodan Milošević to Hitler for his racism and expansionist goals.[37]Saddam Hussein, who also suffered from a Messiah complex,[38] was similar: "Hitler was not one of a kind. As long as millions of people passionately long for his return, it is only a matter of time until their wish is fulfilled."[39]
Nicolae Ceaușescu "went mad" as early as 1971 according toJohn Sweeney, when, "blind to his own Messianism", he attempted to recreateNorth Koreantotalitarianism inRomania.[40] He "played the king" and the role of "chosen one" and "saviour".[41]
Managerial incapacity, failing to meet popular needs, causes dissatisfaction. If the government avoids necessary choices, practices only defensive politics, and represses the protests with tyranny, the state is likely to implode. This was the case inChad when it collapsed in 1980, and inGhana in 1981.[42]
Nicholas II, crownedRussian Emperor at the early age of 26, was unprepared for governance.[43] His cousinCyril, son ofGrand Duke Vladimir, was a rival candidate for the throne.[44] Both liberals and revolutionaries challenged his autocracy.[45] By 1916 he had become apathetic, dominated by his wife,Tsarita Alexandra Feodorovna, andRasputin,[46] a "Christ in the image of the rejected and agonizing monarchy".[47]
Few political scientists credibly predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union or agreed on its causes:[48] in hindsight,Leonid Fituni lists "poverty, hunger, regional conflicts, ethnic wars, deindustrialisation, foreign debt, elite corruption, disease epidemics, refugee problems, environmental issues" as causes.[49]
Armed forces may take over a collapsing state bycoup d'etat. Some military regimes are able to reverse a downward spiral, but if they fail to do so, must rely ever more on coercion and control. The regime "falls into the vacuum it has created". This occurred inUganda underIdi Amin in 1979 and inSomalia in 1991.[50]
Legitimacy refers to popular belief in, or acceptance of, an authority; thus it includes any leader achieving popularity at any given moment.[51] When the state fails to reward the people with civil rights, participation, accountability and oversight, legitimacy fades and collapse may occur[52] InAfghanistan, the non-inclusive 2004 constitution, the international coalition's focus on power consolidation at the expense of democracy, and presidentAshraf Ghani's narrow circle of support, caused the regime to fall in 2021 as it 'lacked legitimacy in the eyes of the people'.[53] In the USSR the1991 Soviet coup d'etat attempt was foiled, not by theGorbachev regime but byBoris Yeltsin and other reformers: Gorbachev never recovered from this blow to his legitimacy[54]
Such states are especially vulnerable to collapse as the people may not accept or understand the principles of legitimacy or nationhood. InMozambique, theFRELIMO government lost legitimacy when the army refused to fight in the civil war.[55] State collapse is prevalent in much of post-colonial Africa and has occurred in two waves: in the 1980's, the second decade of independence, in Chad, Uganda and Ghana; and a decade later, in Somalia andLiberia.[56]
Collapse is marked by the loss of control of political space. Neighbour states may intervene directly in a collapsing state; or they may host dissident movements.[57] The collapse of Afghanistan in 2021 was only possible because theTaliban were sheltered inPakistan.[53] Idi Amin was forced out of Uganda by Ugandan exiles combined with the invasion byTanzania.[58]
In a collapsing state, the economy may shrink because a) theblack economy overshadows the formal, more controlled economy, and b) peripheral areas may prefer to use a neighbour state's currency, as in Chad, Ethiopia in the 1980's andZaire in the 1990's.[59] In the case of post-WWIAustria, the loss of pre-war markets in theAustro-Hungarian Empire encouraged fears of economic decline, thus the idea ofAnschluss with Germany, and Austria's downfall by German invasion in 1938.[60]
In the Soviet Union, the dramatic drop of theprice of oil in 1985 and 1986[61] and theReagan administration's escalation of the arms race ("they can't sustain military spending the way we can") overstretched the USSR economy,[62] while the economy of apartheid South Africa was weakened by sanctions, banking and other boycotts, divestment and shareholder activism.[63] Particularly in South Africa, this led to fears of imminentcivil war between the Apartheid government and theAfrican National Congress. Given South Africa's failure to achieve its aims in theBorder War and the recent memory of theRhodesian Bush War, which resulted in the defeat ofRhodesia by similar African nationalist rebels, it was far from clear that the central government could sustainwar production sufficient to defeat arebel army. This, combined with other factors, pushed theF. W. de Klerk government to begina settlement process which led to a period ofdemocratic transition leading up to the1994 general election, the first held under universal suffrage.
Loss of territorial control is a key indicator of state collapse.[64] If local leaders feel neglected, they may fan the flames of ethnic, religious or regional tensions to the point ofrebellion. Ifcivil war results, the state loses its ability to sustain itsmonopoly on violence, andrebel groups become able to exercise military control.[65][66] Ifseparatist rebels are able to establish sustained control over part of the country, they may proclaim anew independent state, forming (with varying degrees of success) a new state and establishing a separate local monopoly on violence. TheSocialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia collapsed in the 1990s, when its sixfederated republics broke apart to become separate countries; thoughSlovenia andMacedonia detached from Belgrade peacefully, civil wars broke out inCroatia,Bosnia andKosovo, then part ofSerbia, due to nationalist elites manipulating communal tensions.[67][68]
The ethnic discrimination of the apartheid system inSouth Africa ended throughnegotiations between the governingNational Party, theAfrican National Congress, and other political organizations, resulting in South Africa's first non-racialelection, which was won by theAfrican National Congress.[69]
"Misbegotten wars, when serving as culmination points of more general national decline, can be fatal", says Robert Kaplan. Participation inWorld War I was a decisive factor in the collapse ofOttoman Turkey, the Austro-Hungarian empire[70] and the Russian empire in 1917.[71]
In an absolute monarchy, adisputed succession to the throne can cause the utter collapse of royal authority. TheWars of the Roses ended theLancastrian dynasty at thebattle of Tewkesbury in 1471 and led to the downfall ofRichard III and theYorkist line at thebattle of Bosworth in 1485.[72]
InAngola in the 1980s, aid from the USSR was the "principal cause of collapse", turning the ruling elite into unpopular "worshippers of foreign divinities". Soon afterwards, the USSR itself collapsed, in part due to the "demands of the main sponsor", the USA.[73] The2010 Haiti earthquake caused a surge in aid which created a huge parallel government run by NGOs and contractors; destroyed weak institutions; inflated wages, rents, and prices beyond the reach of local businesses; and gave the Haitian government no incentive to undertake necessary reforms.[74]
Either the incumbent regime itself, or an extremistreactionary group dissatisfied with its performance, may attempt to postpone or avoid collapse by regenerating popular support. "At the end of a dynasty there often appears some show of power giving the impression that the dynasty's senility has been made to disappear. It lights up brilliantly just before it is extinguished, like a candle which leaps up brilliantly just before it is put out."[75][76]
To do so, they may have to take "heroic" measures. "Throughout history there have always been in the event of defeat two paths of action; the one aims at saving enough of the substance as possible, the other at leaving behind a stirring legend."[77] According to Piekalkiewicz and Penn, they may rethink or adapt the ideology, or replace it by a completely new set of ideals.[78] For example, in Poland, according to Piekalkiewicz and Penn, communist ideocracy failed in 1980; the recognition ofLech Wałęsa'sSolidarity trade union led to a military coup and authoritarian military rule.
According toSabrina Ramet, regenerative changes occurred in Yugoslavia in the 1980s when the communist ideology was replaced by a nationalist drive for aGreater Serbia and by ananti-bureaucratic revolution in support ofSlobodan Milosevic.[79] TheYoung Turk coup of 1908,[80] the1991 Soviet coup d'etat attempt,[81] and the financial and industrial reforms ofSergei Witte in Imperial Russia[82] were all aimed at regenerating causes which were nearing collapse.
Marina Ottaway[83] discusses the collapse of theAustro-Hungarian Empire andOttoman Empire in 1918,British India in 1947,the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the collapse ofSouth Africa's white supremacist government in 1993, ofCzechoslovakia the following year, and ofYugoslavia.
State collapse is not necessarily anarchy.[84]
If attempts at restructuring from within or without are unsuccessful, a long-term absence of a viable government results. Services are absent and national borders are unprotected, as inHaiti,[85]Libya,Somalia,Yemen andSouth Sudan.[86] A failed state can fragment, be taken over by outside forces, or descend into chaos.[87]
TheMongol Empire was able to conquer and unite the various kingdoms and empires spanning China into one state again in 1279, due to a lack of centralised state authority over the previous century of disunity.
The gradual weakening and collapse of theByzantine Empire starting in the 11th century led to territory being occupied by European and Ottoman powers, accelerating the total failure of the state.
The collapse in authority and failure of other states such as theGolden Horde led to their territorial occupation by other states, in this case Russia.
Thepartition of India in 1947 led to the creation of two independent nations, India and Pakistan.[88] WhenOttoman Turkey collapsed at the end ofWorld War I, it lost territory, including what becameSyria,Iraq andPalestine; the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian empire gave rise toCzechoslovakia,Hungary and the Austrian Republic, whileSlovenia andCroatia became part ofYugoslavia. Nazi Germany in 1945 fragmented into East and West Germany, whilePomerania andSilesia became part of Poland. The USSR breakup led to regional wars in the newly created states ofTajikistan,Moldova,Azerbaijan andGeorgia.[89]
The prospect, and chaos, of state collapse provides fearful elites with motive and opportunity to kill en masse (though the planning and implementation ofgenocide may be hampered by reduced resources).[90] When defeat appeared inevitable, Hitler ordered the killing of invalids,Gypsies, Slavs, and Jews in theFinal solution.[91] In Ottoman Turkey, estimates for the death toll in theArmenian genocide vary between 300,000 and 1.5 million.[92]
ThePartition of India displaced between 10 and 12 million Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims, creating overwhelming refugee crises; there was large-scale violence, with estimates of loss of life accompanying or preceding the partition disputed and varying between several hundred thousand and two million.[93][a] In the former Yugoslavia, collapse led to state failure,[95] andethnic cleansing andgenocide erupted.
State collapse in most cases incurs humanitarian tragedies, ending in massive outflows of refugees and others. Africa leads the world in refugee crises, especially in Somalia and Rwanda, and elsewhere,Bosnia,Libya andHaiti.[96] Earlier examples include: theflight and expulsion of Germans (1944-1950) from areas now part of Poland or Russia; theRevival Process when thePeople's Republic of Bulgaria collapsed; theWhite emigres who left Russia after the Czarist regime fell; and theSouth African diaspora after the collapse of apartheid.
Collapsed states are now expected to be rebuilt, territorially intact and along democratic lines, with the help of multilateral organizations and bilateral donors.[97] State reconstruction involves five basic elements: 1) a central political authority, 2) control of borders, 3) control of national territory, 4) sufficient control and supply of resources to maintain the state, 5) availability of state agents sufficient to execute policy.[98] Anyone attempting this in Somalia would have to disarm thousands of gunmen, stop the arms trafficking, set up a justice system and rebuild the economy, all against the opposition of warlords, extremists and smugglers.[99]
In 1946, the Diet ratified a newConstitution of Japan[100] The new constitution drafted by Americans allowed access and control over the Japanese military through MacArthur and the Allied occupation of Japan.[101] "The political project drew much of its inspiration from theU.S. Bill of Rights,New Deal social legislation, theliberal constitutions of several European states and even the Soviet Union."[102]
Collapse may be followed by formal or informal efforts at justice, such as theNuremberg trials and theTruth and Reconciliation Commission (South Africa).[103]Slobodan Milosevic andSaddam Hussein were also tried in court. Germany has faced up to itsGerman collective guilt and "legacy of shame"[104] for the Hitler years in such media portrayals asDownfall.Denial has been a common reaction in post-collapse nations. In post-apartheid South Africa, white liberals were more likely to feel guilt than conservatives.[105] Some have refused to accept responsibility for massacres, as inHolocaust denial, theMyth of the clean Wehrmacht andArmenian genocide denial. Anegationist explanation for the collapse of theGerman Empire in 1918 was found in theStab-in-the-back myth.
The collapse of the Ottomans in 1918 had long-term consequences, "triggering most of the problems that plague the Middle East today".[106] Hegemony in the Middle East has been subject to quarrels between British, French,[107] Israeli,[108][better source needed] American,[109] Arab nationalist,[110] Saudi and Iranian interests[111] ever since.
Sebastian Haffner had argued that Hitler, "whether we like it or not", created many features of the postwar world, including the state of Israel, the end of European empires, the division of Germany, and the joint hegemony of the US and USSR.[112]
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)The division of British India into India and Pakistan, achieved in 1947.