This article is about the armed conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020. For the armed conflict between 1988 and 1994, seeFirst Nagorno-Karabakh War.
Fighting began on the morning of 27 September, with an Azerbaijani offensive[60][61] along theline of contact established in the aftermath of theFirst Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988–1994). Clashes were particularly intense in the less mountainous districts of southern Nagorno-Karabakh.[62] Turkey provided military support to Azerbaijan.[60][63]
The war was marked by the deployment ofdrones, sensors, long-range heavy artillery[64] andmissile strikes, as well as by state propaganda and the use of official social media accounts in onlineinformation warfare.[65] In particular, Azerbaijan's widespread use of drones was seen as crucial in determining the conflict's outcome.[66] Numerous countries and theUnited Nations strongly condemned the fighting and called on both sides to de-escalate tensions and resume meaningful negotiations.[67] Three ceasefires brokered by Russia, France, and the United States failed to stop the conflict.[68]
Followingthe capture ofShusha, the second-largest city in Nagorno-Karabakh, aceasefire agreement was signed, ending all hostilities in the area from 10 November 2020.[69][70][71] The agreement resulted in a major shift regarding the control of the territories in Nagorno-Karabakh and the areas surrounding it. Approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers were deployed as peacekeeping forces along the Lachin corridor connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, with a mandate of at least five years.[9] Following the end of the war, an unconfirmed number ofArmenian prisoners of war were held captive in Azerbaijan, with reports of mistreatment and charges filed against them,[72][73][74][75] leading toa case at theInternational Court of Justice.[76]
The war has been referred to as the "Second Nagorno-Karabakh War",[77][78] and has also been called the "44-Day War" in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.[79][80]
In Armenia and Artsakh, it has been called the "Second Artsakh War" (Armenian:Արցախյան երկրորդ պատերազմ,romanized: Arts'akhyan yerkrord paterazm),[81][82] "Patriotic War"[83] and the "Fight for Survival" (Armenian:Գոյամարտ,romanized: Goyamart).[84]
In Azerbaijan, it has been called the "Second Karabakh War" (Azerbaijani:İkinci Qarabağ müharibəsi)[85] and "Patriotic War".[86][87] The Azerbaijani government referred to it as an "operation for peace enforcement"[88] and "counter-offensive operation".[89] It later announced it had initiated military operations under the code-name "Operation Iron Fist" (Azerbaijani:Dəmir Yumruq əməliyyatı).[90]
The territorial ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh is fiercely contested between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Thecurrent conflict has its roots in events followingWorld War I and today the region isde jure part of Azerbaijan, although large parts werede facto held by the internationally unrecognisedRepublic of Artsakh, which is supported by Armenia.[91]
During theSoviet era, the predominantly Armenian-populated region was governed as anautonomous oblast within theAzerbaijan SSR.[92] As theSoviet Union began to disintegrate during the late 1980s the question of Nagorno-Karabakh's status re-emerged, and on 20 February 1988 the parliament of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast passed a resolution requesting transfer of the oblast from the Azerbaijan SSR to theArmenian SSR. Azerbaijan rejected the request several times,[93] and ethnic violence began shortly thereafter with a series of pogroms between 1988 and 1990 against Armenians inSumgait,Ganja andBaku,[94][95][96][97] and against Azerbaijanis inGugark andStepanakert.[98][99][100][101] Following therevocation of Nagorno-Karabakh's autonomous status, anindependence referendum was held in the region on 10 December 1991. The referendum was boycotted by the Azerbaijani population, which then constituted around 22.8% of the region's population; 99.8% of participants voted in favour. In early 1992, following the Soviet Union's collapse, the region descended into outright war.[93][dead link]
Ethnic groups of the region in 1995, following the end of theFirst Nagorno-Karabakh War and the displacement of the region's Azerbaijani and ethnic Armenian population.(See entire map)
TheFirst Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in the displacement of approximately 725,000 Azerbaijanis and 300,000–500,000 Armenians from both Azerbaijan and Armenia.[102] The 1994Bishkek Protocol brought the fighting to an end and resulted in significant Armenian territorial gains: in addition to controlling most of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Republic of Artsakh also occupied the surrounding Azerbaijani-populated districts ofAgdam,Jabrayil,Fuzuli,Kalbajar,Qubadli,Lachin andZangilan.[103] The terms of the Bishkek agreement produced afrozen conflict,[104] and long-standing international mediation attempts to create a peace process were initiated by theOSCE Minsk Group in 1994, with the interruptedMadrid Principles being the most recent iteration prior to the 2020 war.[105][106] TheUnited Nations Security Council adoptedfour resolutions in 1993 calling for the withdrawal of "occupying forces" from the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh,[107]and in 2008 theGeneral Assembly adopteda resolution demanding the immediate withdrawal of Armenian occupying forces,[108] although the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia, France and USA, voted against it.[109]
For three decades multiple violations of the ceasefire occurred, the most serious being the four-day2016 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.[110] Surveys indicated that the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh did not want to be part of Azerbaijan[111] and in 2020 the Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan announced plans to make Shusha, a city of historical and cultural significance to both Armenians and Azerbaijanis,[94] Artsakh's new capital. In August of the same year thegovernment of Artsakh moved thecountry's parliament to Shusha, escalating tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.[112] Furtherskirmishes occurred on theborder between the two countries in July 2020.[110] Thousands of Azerbaijanisrallied for war against Armenia in response, and Turkey voiced its firm support for Azerbaijan.[113] On 29 July 2020, Azerbaijan conducted a series ofmilitary exercises that lasted from 29 July to 10 August 2020,[114] followed by further exercises in early September with the involvement of Turkey.[115] Prior to the resumption of hostilities, allegations emerged that Turkey had facilitated the transfer of hundreds ofSyrian National Army members from theHamza Division to Azerbaijan.[116] Baku denied the involvement of foreign fighters.[117]
Approximate frontlines at the time of the ceasefire, with Azerbaijan's territorial gains during the war in red, the Lachin corridor under Russian peacekeepers in blue, and areas ceded by Armenia to Azerbaijan hashed.
The conflict began with an Azerbaijani ground offensive that included armoured formations, supported by artillery and drones, includingloitering munitions. Armenian and Artsakh troops were forced back from their first line of defence in Artsakh's southeast and northern regions, but inflicted significant losses on Azerbaijani armoured formations with anti-tank guided missiles and artillery, destroying dozens of vehicles. Azerbaijan made heavy use of drones in strikes against Armenian air defences, taking out 13 short-range surface-to-air missile systems. Azerbaijani forces used drones to systematically isolate and destroy Armenian/Artsakh positions. Reconnaissance drones would locate a military position on the front lines and the placement of reserve forces, after which the position would be shelled along with roads and bridges that could potentially be used by the reserves to reach the position. After the Armenian/Artsakh position had been extensively shelled and cut off from reinforcement, the Azerbaijanis would move in superior forces to overwhelm it. This tactic was repeatedly used to gradually overrun Armenian and Artsakh positions.[129] Azerbaijani troops managed to make limited gains in the south in the first three days of the conflict. For the next three days, both sides largely exchanged fire from fixed positions. In the north, Armenian/Artsakh forces counterattacked, managing to retake some ground. Their largest counterattack took place on the fourth day, but incurred heavy losses when their armour and artillery units were exposed to Azerbaijani attack drones, loitering munitions, and reconnaissance drones spotting for Azerbaijani artillery as they manoeuvred in the open.[22]
Day-by-day animation of the war. Red: Artsakh; blue: captured by the Azerbaijani army; dotted blue: regions in which Azerbaijani special forces were active.
Azerbaijan targeted infrastructure throughout Artsakh starting on the first day of the war, includingthe use of rocket artillery and cluster munitions against Stepanakert, the capital of Artsakh, and a missile strike against a bridge in theLachin Corridor linking Armenia with Artsakh. On the 6th day of the war, Armenia/Artsakh targetedGanja for thefirst of four times with ballistic missiles, nominally targeting the military portion ofGanja International Airport but instead hitting residential areas. On the morning of the seventh day, Azerbaijan launched a major offensive. The Azerbaijani Army's First, Second, and Third Army Corps, reinforced by reservists from the Fourth Army Corps, began an advance in the north, making some territorial gains, but the Azerbaijani advance stalled.[22]
Most of the fighting subsequently shifted to the south, in terrain that is relatively flat and underpopulated as compared to the mountainous north. Azerbaijani forceslaunched offensives towardJabrayil andFüzuli, managing to break through the multi-layered Armenian/Artsakh defensive lines and recapture a stretch of territory held by Armenian troops as a buffer zone, but the fighting subsequently stalled.[22]
Map of the war showing Azerbaijan's day-to-day advances
After the shelling ofMartuni,[130] Artsakh authorities began mobilising civilians.[131] Just before 04:00 (00:00UTC) on 10 October 2020, Russia reported that both Armenia and Azerbaijan had agreed on a humanitarian ceasefire after ten hours of talks in Moscow (the Moscow Statement) and announced that both would enter "substantive" talks.[citation needed] After the declared ceasefire, the President of Artsakh admitted Azerbaijan had been able to achieve some success, moving the front deep into Artsakh territory;[132] the Armenian Prime Minister announced that Armenian forces had conducted a "partial retreat".[133]
The ceasefire quickly broke down and the Azerbaijani advance continued. Within days Azerbaijan announced the capture of dozens of villages on the southern front.[134] A second ceasefire attempt midnight 17 October 2020 was also ignored.[135] Azerbaijan announced the capture of Jabrayil on 9 October 2020 and Füzuli on 17 October 2020. Azerbaijani troops also captured theKhoda Afarin Dam andKhodaafarin Bridges. Azerbaijan announced that the border area with Iran was fully secured with the capture of Agbend on 22 October 2020.[136] Azerbaijani forces then turned northwest,advancing towards the Lachin corridor, the sole highway between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, putting it within artillery range. According to Artsakh, a counterattack repelled forward elements of the Azerbaijani force and pushed them back. Armenian/Artsakh resistance had managed to halt the Azerbaijani advance to within 25 kilometres of the Lachin corridor by 26 October 2020. Artsakh troops who had retreated into the mountains and forests began launching small-unit attacks against exposed Azerbaijani infantry and armour, and Armenian forces launched a counteroffensive near the far southwestern border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.[137] On 26 October 2020, a US-brokered ceasefire came into effect, but fighting resumed within minutes.[138][139] Three days later, the Artsakh authorities stated that the Azerbaijani forces were 5 km (3.1 mi) fromShusha.[140] On 8 November 2020, Azerbaijani forcesseized Shusha,[141] the second-largest city in Artsakh before the war, located 15 kilometres fromStepanakert, the republic's capital.[142]
Although the amount of territory contested was relatively restricted, the conflict impacted the wider region, in part due to the type of munitions deployed. Shells and rockets landed inEast Azerbaijan Province,Iran, although no damage was reported,[143][144] and Iran reported that several unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) had been downed or had crashed within its territory.[145][146][147][148] Georgia stated that two UAVs had crashed in itsKakheti Province.[149]
Lachin corridor, monitored by Russian peacekeepers
Access roads into Nagorno-Karabakh
All economic and transport connections in the region to be unblocked, including transport connections between Nakhchivan and rest of Azerbaijan (arrow's hypothetical location chosen by a Wikipedia user, and not defined by the statement itself)
On 9 November 2020, in the aftermath of the capture of Shusha, a ceasefire agreement was signed by the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, and the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, ending all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from 10 November 2020, 00:00 Moscow time.[69][70][71] The President of Artsakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, also agreed to end the hostilities.[154]
Under the terms of the deal, both belligerent parties were to exchange prisoners of war and the bodies of the fallen. Furthermore, Armenian forces were to withdraw from Armenian-occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh by 1 December 2020, while a peacekeeping force, provided by theRussian Ground Forces and led by Lieutenant GeneralRustam Muradov,[155] of just under 2,000 soldiers would be deployed for a minimum of five years along the line of contact and the Lachin corridor linking Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Additionally, Armenia undertook to "guarantee safety" of transport communication between Azerbaijan'sNakhchivan exclave and mainland Azerbaijan in both directions, while Russia'sborder troops (under theFederal Security Service) were to "exercise control over the transport communication".[156][157][158]
On 15 December 2020, after several weeks of cease fire, the sides finally exchanged prisoners of war. 44 Armenian and 12 Azeri prisoners were exchanged.[159] It is unclear whether more prisoners remain in captivity on either side.
Territorial changes
At the time of the ceasefire, Azerbaijan had retaken most of the area south of the Lachin corridor. It had also captured one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh, mostly in the south. Under the terms of the ceasefire, Azerbaijan regained control over much of its territory that had been lost to Armenia in the earlier war.[160] In total, Azerbaijan regained control of 72% of the disputed territory, including the territory captured in Nagorno-Karabakh.[161] It was reported that Azerbaijan regained control of 5 cities, 4 towns, 286 villages.[162]
Non-military actions taken by Armenia and Azerbaijan
Since the beginning of the conflict, both Armenia and Azerbaijan declaredmartial law, limiting thefreedom of speech. Meanwhile, a new law came into effect since October 2020 in Armenia, which prohibits negative coverage of the situation at the front.[163] Restrictions have been reported on the work of international journalists in Azerbaijan, with no corresponding restrictions reported in Nagorno-Karabakh.[164]
On 28 September 2020, Armenia banned men aged over 18 listed in the mobilisation reserve from leaving the country.[165] The next day, it postponed the trial of former PresidentRobert Kocharyan and other former officials charged in the 2008 post-election unrest case, owing to one of the defendants, the former Defence Minister of Armenia,Seyran Ohanyan, going to Artsakh during the conflict.[166]
On 1 October 2020, theArmenian National Security Service (NSS) stated that it had arrested and charged a former high-ranking Armenian military official with treason on suspicion of spying for Azerbaijan.[167] Three days later, the NSS stated that it had arrested several foreign citizens on suspicion of spying.[168] Protesting Israeliarms sales to Azerbaijan, Armeniarecalled its ambassador to Israel.[169]
On 8 October 2020, theArmenian President,Armen Sarkissian, dismissed the director of the NSS.[170] Subsequently, the Armenian government toughened the martial law and prohibited criticising state bodies and "propaganda aimed at disruption of the defense capacity of the country".[171] On the same day, the Armenian MoD cancelledaNovaya Gazeta correspondent's journalistic accreditation, officially for entering Nagorno-Karabakh without accreditation.[172] On 9 October 2020, Armenia tightened its security legislation.[171] On 21 October 2020, the Armenian Cabinet of Ministers temporarily banned the import ofTurkish goods, the decision will come into force on 31 December 2020.[173] The following day, theArmenian parliament passed a law to write off the debts of the Armenian servicemen wounded during the clashes and the debts of the families of those killed.[174]
On 27 October 2020, the Armenian president Armen Sarkissian dismissed the head of the counterintelligence department of the National Security Service, Major General Hovhannes Karumyan and the chief of staff of the border troops of the National Security Service Gagik Tevosyan.[175] On 8 November 2020, Sarkissian yet again dismissed the interim head of the National Security Service.[176]
As of 8 November 2020, one Armenian activist was fined by the police for his anti-war post.[177]
On 27 September 2020, Azerbaijani authorities restricted internet access shortly after the clashes began,[178] stating it was "in order to prevent large-scale Armenian provocations." The government made a noticeable push to useTwitter, which was the only unblocked platform in the country. Despite the restrictions, some Azerbaijanis still usedVPNs to bypass them.[179] TheNational Assembly of Azerbaijan declared a curfew inBaku,Ganja,Goygol,Yevlakh and a number of districts from midnight on 28 September 2020,[180][181] under the Interior Minister,Vilayet Eyvazov.[182]Azerbaijan Airlines announced that all airports in Azerbaijan would be closed to regular passenger flights until 30 September 2020.[183] The Military Prosecutor's Offices of Fuzuli, Tartar, Karabakh and Ganja began criminal investigations of war and other crimes.[184]
Also on 28 September 2020, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, issued a decree authorising a partial mobilisation in Azerbaijan.[185] On 8 October 2020, Azerbaijan recalled its ambassador to Greece for consultations, following allegations ofArmenians from Greece arriving in Nagorno-Karabakh to fight against Azerbaijan.[186] Three days later, theAzerbaijani State Security Service (SSS) warned against a potential Armenian-backed terror attack.[187]
On 17 October 2020, the Azerbaijani MoFA stated that member of theRussian State Duma from the rulingUnited Russia,Vitaly Milonov, was declaredpersona non grata inAzerbaijan for visiting Nagorno-Karabakh without permission from the Azerbaijani government.[188] On 24 October 2020, by recommendation of theCentral Bank of Azerbaijan, the member banks of the Azerbaijani Banks' Association unanimously adopted a decision to write off the debts of the military servicemen and civilians who died during the conflict.[189]
On 29 October 2020, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, issued a decree on the formation of temporary commandant's offices in the areas that the Azerbaijani forces seized control of during the conflict. According to the decree, the commandants will be appointed by theMinistry of Internal Affairs, but they will have to coordinate with other executive bodies of the government, includingMinistry of Defense, theState Border Service, theState Security Service, andANAMA.[190][191]
Over the course of the war several Azerbaijani activists were brought in for questioning by the State Security Service, due to their anti-war activism.[192][193] On 12 December, a decree by President Aliyev lifted the curfew that had been imposed in September.[194]
Casualties were high,[195] officially in the low thousands. According to official figures released by the belligerents, Armenia lost 3,825 troops killed[42] and 187 missing,[43] while Azerbaijan lost 2,906 troops killed, with sixmissing in action.[35] During the conflict, it was noted that the sides downplayed the number of their own casualties and exaggerated the numbers of enemy casualties and injuries.[196]
Civilians
The wall with images of fallen Armenian soldiers. According toArtsakhian President, mainly 18–20 year old soldiers fought in hostilities.[197]
The Armenian authorities stated that 85 Armenian civilians were killed during the war,[d] while another 21 were missing.[43] According to Azerbaijani sources, the Armenian military has targeted densely populated areas containing civilian structures.[198] As of 9 November 2020, theProsecutor General's Office of the Republic of Azerbaijan stated that during the war, as a result of reported shelling by Armenian artillery and rocketing, 100 people had been killed, while 416 people had been wounded.[46] Also, during the post-war clashes, the Azerbaijani authorities stated that anAzercell employee was seriously injured during the installation of communication facilities and transmission equipment nearHadrut.[199]
As of 23 October 2020, the Armenian authorities has stated that the conflict had displaced more than half of Nagorno-Karabakh's population or approximately 90,000 people.[57] TheInternational Rescue Committee has also claimed that more than half of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh has been displaced by the conflict.[200] As of 2 November 2020, the Azerbaijani authorities has stated that the conflict had displaced approximately 40,000 people in Azerbaijan.[59]
Seven journalists have been injured.[121][201] On 1 October 2020, two French journalists fromLe Monde covering the clashes inKhojavend were injured by Azerbaijani shellfire.[202] A week later, three Russian journalists reporting inShusha were seriously injured by an Azerbaijani attack.[203][204] On 19 October 2020, according to Azerbaijani sources, an AzerbaijaniAzTV journalist received shrapnel wounds from Armenian shellfire in Aghdam District.[201]
Military
Wounded Azerbaijani servicemen attending thevictory parade on 10 December.
An Artsakh2S1 Gvozdika captured as awar trophy by the Azerbaijani forces, displayed on 10 December during the victory parade.
Armenian authorities reported the deaths of 3,825 servicemen during the war, while the Azerbaijani authorities stated that more than 5,000 Armenian servicemen were killed, and several times more were wounded as of 28 October 2020.[205] After the war, the former director of the Armenian National Security Service,Artur Vanetsyan, had also stated that some 5,000 Armenians were killed during the war.[206] Also, the Armenian authorities had stated that about 60 Armenian servicemen were captured by Azerbaijan as prisoners of war.[45] The former Head of the Military Control Service of the Armenian MoD,Movses Hakobyan, stated that already on the fifth day of war there were 1,500 deserters from Armenian armed forces, who were kept in Karabakh and not allowed to return to Armenia in order to prevent panic. The press secretary of Armenian prime minister called the accusations absurd and asked the law enforcement agencies to deal with them.[207] Former military commissar of Armenia major-general Levon Stepanyan stated that the number of deserters in Armenian army was over 10,000, and it is not possible to prosecute such a large number of military personnel.[208] During the post-war clashes, the Armenian government stated that 60 servicemen went missing,[209] including several dozen that were captured.[210] and On 27 October 2020, Artsakh authorities stated that its defence ministerJalal Harutyunyan was wounded in action.[211] However, unofficial Azerbaijani military sources alleged that he was killed and released footage apparently showing the assassination from a drone camera.[212]
During the conflict, the government of Azerbaijan did not reveal the number of its military casualties.[213] On 11 January, Azerbaijan stated that 2,853 of its soldiers had been killed during the war, while another 50 went missing.[35] Also, Azerbaijani authorities stated that 11 more Azerbaijani servicemen were killed during the post-war clashes or landmine explosions.[214][215][216] On 23 October 2020, President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, confirmed thatShukur Hamidov who was madeNational Hero of Azerbaijan in 2016, was killed during the operations inQubadli District.[217] This was the first military casualty officially confirmed by the government. However, Armenian and Artsakh authorities have claimed 7,630 Azerbaijani soldiers and Syrian mercenaries were killed.[218][219]
Civilian areas, including major cities, have been hit, including Azerbaijan's second-largest city, Ganja, and the region's capital, Stepanakert, with many buildings and homes destroyed.[226][227] TheGhazanchetsots Cathedral has also been damaged.[228] Several outlets reported increased cases ofCOVID-19 in Nagorno-Karabakh, particularly the city of Stepanakert, where the population was forced to live in overcrowdedbunkers, due to Azerbaijan artillery and drone strikes conflict.[229][230] There were also reported difficulties in testing and contact tracing during the conflict.[229][230]
TheGhazanchetsots Cathedral inShushabecame damaged as a result of shelling. On 19 October 2020, a strong fire broke out in a cotton plant inAzad Qaraqoyunlu,Tartar District, as a result of the Armenian artillery shelling, with several large hangars of the plant becoming completely burned down.[231] An Armenian-backed Nagorno-Karabakh human rightsombudsman report noted 5,800 private properties and 520 private vehicles destroyed, with damage to 960 items of civilian infrastructure, and industrial and public and objects.[232] On 16 November 2020, theProsecutor General's Office of the Republic of Azerbaijan reported 3,410 private houses, 512 civilian facilities, and 120 multi-storey residential buildings being damaged throughout the war.[46]
Equipment losses
By 7 October 2020, Azerbaijan reported to have destroyed about 250 tanks and other armoured vehicles; 150 other military vehicles; 11 command and command-observation posts; 270 artillery units andMLRSs, including aBM-27 Uragan; 60 Armenian anti-aircraft systems, including 4 S-300 and 259K33 Osas; 18 UAVs and 8 arms depots.[205][233][234][235] destroyed. As of 16 October 2020, the Azerbaijani President stated that the Armenian losses were at US$2 billion.[236] In turn an Azerbaijani helicopter was stated to have been damaged, but its crew had apparently returned it to Azerbaijani-controlled territory without casualties.[237] Later it was reported that on 12 October 2020, Azerbaijan had destroyed oneTochka-U missile launcher. On 14 October 2020, Azerbaijan stated it had further destroyed fiveT-72 tanks, threeBM-21 Grad rocket launchers, one 9K33 Osa missile system, oneBMP-2 vehicle, oneKS-19 air defence gun, twoD-30 howitzers and several Armenian army automobiles.[238] On the same day, Azerbaijan announced the destruction of threeR-17 Elbrustactical ballistic missile launchers that had been targetingGanja andMingachevir.[239] BBC reporters confirmed the destruction of at least one tactical ballistic missile launcher in the vicinity ofVardenis, close to the border with Azerbaijan, and posted photo evidence in support of this information.[240] Later American journalist Josh Friedman posted a high quality video of a destroyed Armenian ballistic missile launcher.[241]
Armenian and Artsakh authorities initially reported the downing of four Azerbaijani helicopters and the destruction of ten tanks andIFVs, as well as 15 drones.[242] Later the numbers were revised to 36 tanks and armoured personnel vehicles destroyed, two armoured combat engineering vehicles destroyed and four helicopters and 27 unmanned aerial vehicles downed all within the first day of hostilities.[243] They released footage showing thedestruction or damage of five Azerbaijani tanks.[244] Over the course of 2 October, the Artsakh Defence Army said they had destroyed 39 Azerbaijani military vehicles, including aT-90 tank; fourSU-25 fighter-bombers; threeMi-24 attack helicopters; and 17 UAVs.[245]
According to Dutch warfare research groupOryx, which documents visually confirmed losses on both sides, Armenia lost 255 tanks (destroyed: 146, damaged: 6, captured: 103), 78 armoured fighting vehicles (destroyed: 25, damaged: 1, captured: 52), and 737 trucks, vehicles and jeeps (destroyed: 331, damaged: 18, captured: 387), while Azerbaijan lost 62 tanks (destroyed: 38, damaged: 16, abandoned: 1, captured: 7, captured but later lost: 1), 23 armoured fighting vehicles (destroyed: 6, damaged: 3, abandoned: 7, captured: 9), 76 trucks, vehicles and jeeps (destroyed: 40, damaged: 22, abandoned: 8, captured: 6), as well 11 oldAn-2 aircraft, used as unmanned bait in order for Armenia to reveal the location of air defence systems. Oryx only counts destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available, and therefore, the actual number of equipment destroyed is higher.[246]
UN Secretary-GeneralAntónio Guterres stated that "indiscriminate attacks on populated areas anywhere, including inStepanakert,Ganja and other localities in and around the immediate Nagorno-Karabakh zone of conflict, were totally unacceptable".[247]Amnesty International stated that both Azerbaijani and Armenian forces committed war crimes during recent fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, and called on Azerbaijani and Armenian authorities to immediately conduct independent, impartial investigations, identify all those responsible, and bring them to justice.[248][249] Columbia University's Institute for the Study of Human Rights recognized that violent conflict affected all sides in the conflict but distinguished "the collateral damage of Azerbaijanis" from "the policy of atrocities such as mutilations and beheadings committed by Azerbaijani forces and their proxies inArtsakh."[250] Azerbaijan started an investigation on war crimes by Azerbaijani servicemen in November[251] and as of 14 December, has arrested four of its servicemen.[252]
After the ceasefire agreement was signed, PresidentArmen Sarksyan held a meeting withKarekin II, where they both made a call to declare 22 November as the Day of Remembrance of the Heroes who fell for the Defense of the Motherland in the Artsakh Liberation War.[261] On 16 November, he declared that snap parliamentary elections and Pashinyan's resignation were inevitable, proposing that a process be overseen and managed by an interim "National Accord Government".[262]
On 10 December, the Armenian media reported that an Azerbaijani citizen was detained at night nearBerdavan inTavush Province. It was reported that an Azerbaijani civilian was observed in Berdavan between 4:00 and 5:00 in the morning. The executive head of Berdavan, Smbat Mugdesyan, said that theNSS had taken him away and that he did not know other details. According to the Armenian media, a criminal case was opened against the detained citizen on suspicion of illegally crossing to theArmenian state border. The name of the detained Azerbaijani was not disclosed. According to theBBC Azerbaijani Service, Azerbaijan'sInternal Affairs,Foreign Affairs andDefence Ministries said they had no information about the incident.[263]
On 12 December, Azerbaijani trucks, accompanied by theInternational Committee of the Red Cross and Russian peacekeepers, enteredDavid Bek inSyunik Province of Armenia to pick up the bodies of fallen soldiers. Armenian officials refuted the media reports of Azerbaijani vehicles enteringGoris.[264]
On 16 December, the family members of the missing Armenian soldiers gathered in front of the Armenian Ministry of Defence building, demanding information about their loved ones. They were not allowed into the building and Armenian military representatives did not give a response. A scuffle ensued, during which the family members of the missing Armenian soldiers broke through to the building.[265]
Azerbaijan
Celebrations inBaku, Azerbaijan after the peace treaty.
The peace agreement and the end of the war was seen as a victory and was widely celebrated in Azerbaijan.[266][267] On 10 November 2020, crowds waved flags inBaku after the peace deal was announced.[268] On that day,President of AzerbaijanIlham Aliyev gave a speech in which he mockingly saidNə oldu Paşinyan? ("What happened Pashinyan?"), which became an Internet meme in Azerbaijan and Turkey.[269][270] On 11 November, at a meeting with wounded Azerbaijani servicemen who took part in the war, Aliyev said that new orders and medals would be established in Azerbaijan, and that he gave appropriate instructions on awarding civilians and servicemen who showed "heroism on the battlefield and in the rear and distinguished themselves in this war." He also proposed the names of these orders and medals.[271] About a week later, at a plenary session of theAzerbaijani National Assembly, a draft law on amendments to the law "On the establishment of orders and medals of the Republic of Azerbaijan" was submitted for discussion.[272] Seventeen new orders and medals were established on the same day in the first reading in accordance with the bill "On the establishment of orders and medals of the Republic of Azerbaijan".[273] In mid-November, Aliyev andAzerbaijan's First Vice-president,Mehriban Aliyeva, visitedFuzuli andJabrayil Districts, both of which were ghost towns in ruins after the Armenian forces occupied it in 1993.[274] Aliyev ordered theState Agency of Azerbaijan Automobile Roads to construct a new highway, starting fromAlxanlı, which will connect Fuzuli toShusha.[275] In Jabrayil, Aliyev stated that a "new master plan" will be drawn up to rebuild the city.[276]
27 September and 10 November were declaredMemorial Day andVictory Day respectively,[277][278] although the latter's date was changed to 8 November as it overlapped withMustafa Kemal Atatürk'sMemorial Day in Turkey.[279] It was also announced that the new station in theBaku Metro will be named8 November at the suggestion of Aliyev.[280] On the same day, President Aliyev signed a decree on the establishment of the YASHAT Foundation to support the families of those wounded and killed during the war, and general control over the management of the foundation was transferred to theASAN service.[281] On 2 December, the Association of Banks of Azerbaijan announced that the bank debts of servicemen and civilians killed during the war in Azerbaijan would be completely written off.[282] On 4 December, at 12:00 (GMT+4) local time, amoment of silence was held in Azerbaijan to commemorate the fallen soldiers of the war.[283][284] Flags were lowered across the country, and traffic halted, while ships moored in theBay of Baku, as well as cars honked their horns.[285] A unity prayer was held at theHeydar Mosque in Baku in memory of those killed in the war, andShaykh al-IslāmAllahshukur Pashazadeh, chairman of the Religious Council of the Caucasus, said that "Sunnis and Shiites prayed for the souls of our martyrs together." Commemoration ceremonies were also held in mosques inSumgayit,Guba, Ganja,Shamakhi,Lankaran,Shaki, in churches in Baku and Ganja, and in thesynagogue of Ashkenazi Jews in Baku.[286] On 9 December, President Aliyev awarded 83 servicemen with the title ofHero of the Patriotic War,[287] 204 servicemen withKarabakh Order,[288] and 33 servicemen withZafar Order.[289]
Avictory parade was held on 10 December in honour of the Azerbaijani victory onAzadliq Square,[290] with 3,000 military servicemen who distinguished themselves during the war marched alongside military equipment, unmanned aerial vehicles and aircraft,[291] as well as Armenian war trophies,[292] and Turkish soldiers and officers.[293] Turkish President Erdoğan attended themilitary parade as part of astate visit to Baku.[294] In April 2021, Azerbaijan opened aMilitary Trophy Park featuring items from the conflict.[295]
According to peer-reviewed journalCaucasus Survey:[296]
…for the first time in the post-Soviet era, the Azerbaijani leadership has achieved a high degree of social solidarity. All opposition parties and organizations, including thePopular Front,Musavat,ReAl, and National Council, expressed their full support for the war. The citizens acquired a shared emotional experience of "making history". (...) The government received the stamp of approval from its most vicious critics. The authoritarian government and the civil society it long persecuted were united in the name of homeland. The definition of homeland, consequently, has been reduced to a military victory for the soil, notvalues or the rights or lives of its people. By supporting a war the government waged, both the opposition and civil society contributed to the creation of a new source and reserve of legitimacy forauthoritarianism. Further, while the opposition and civil society criticized the regime in Russia for its authoritarianism and imperialist nationalism, the majority of them did not express misgivings about the no less authoritarian and imperialist politics of Turkey, and enthusiastically embraced ultra-rightpan-Turkism.
Transfer of territories and flight of Armenian population
The Armenian population of the territories ceded to Azerbaijan was forced to flee to Armenia, sometimes destroying their houses and livestock to keep them out of Azerbaijani hands.[297][298]
In 2020, Canada suspended arms exports to Turkey due to accusations of the use of Canadian technology in the conflict, in violation of end-use assurances Turkey had given to Canada. Turkey criticised the Canadian decision.[299] In 2021, Canada prohibited arms exports to Turkey after an investigation verified the accusations.[300] Turkey protested that the embargo will harm bilateral relations andNATO alliance solidarity.[301]
While Armenians and Azerbaijanis lived side by side under Soviet rule, the collapse of the Soviet Union contributed toracialisation and fiercenationalism, causing both Armenians and Azerbaijanis tostereotype each other, shaping rhetoric on both sides.[302] Before, during and after the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, the growth ofanti-Armenian andanti-Azerbaijan sentiment resulted inethnic violence, including pogroms against Armenians in Azerbaijan, as inSumgait andBaku,[303][304][305][306] and against Azerbaijanis in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, as atGugark andStepanakert.[98][99][100][101]
Azerbaijani aims
Most of Azerbaijan's initial successful advances were concentrated in the areas located along theAras River, which has less mountainous terrain compared to the region's northern and central territories.
In a 27 September 2020 interview, regional expertThomas de Waal said that it was highly unlikely that hostilities were initiated by the Armenian side, as they were already in possession of the disputed territory and were incentivised to normalise thestatus quo, while "for various reasons, Azerbaijan calculate[d] that military action w[ould] win it something".[307] The suspected immediate goal of the Azerbaijani offensive was to capture the districts ofFuzuli andJabrayil in southern Nagorno-Karabakh, where the terrain is less mountainous and more favourable for offensive operations.[61] Political scientist Arkady Dubnov of theCarnegie Moscow Center[308][309] believed that Azerbaijan had launched the offensive to improve Azerbaijan's position in a suitable season for hostilities in the terrain.[310]
Turkey and Russia
Thegeostrategic interests of Russia and Turkey in the region were widely commented upon during the war.[311] Both were described as benefiting from the ceasefire agreement, withThe Economist stating that for Russia, China and Turkey, "all sides stand to benefit economically".[312] In late October,massed Russian airstrikes targeted a training camp forFailaq al-Sham, one of the largest Turkish-backed Sunni Islamist rebel groups in Syria's Idlib province, killing 78 militants in an act widely interpreted as a warning shot to Ankara over the latter's involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh fighting.[313][314]
Turkey
Azerbaijan and Turkey are bound by ethnic, cultural and historic ties, and both countries refer totheir relationship as being one between "two states, one nation".[315] Turkey (then theOttoman Empire) helped Azerbaijan, previously part of theRussian Empiregain its independence in 1918, and became the first country to recognise Azerbaijan's independence from theSoviet Union in 1991.[316] Turkey has also been the guarantor of theNakhchivan Autonomous Republic, an exclave of Azerbaijan, since 1921.[317][318] Other commentators have seen Turkey's support for Azerbaijan as part of an activist foreign policy, linking it withneo-Ottoman policies inSyria,Iraq, and the Eastern Mediterranean.[319][320] Turkey's highly visible role in the conflict was described by Armenians as a continuation of theArmenian genocide, the mass murder and expulsion of 1.5 million Armenians by theOttoman government, particularly given Turkey'scontinued denial of the genocide.[321][322][323][324] Turkey provided military support to Azerbaijan, including military experts and Syrian mercenaries.[312] The transport communications stipulated by the ceasefire agreement, linking Nakhchivan and the main part of Azerbaijan through Armenia, would provide Turkey with trade access toCentral Asia and China'sBelt and Road Initiative.[312]
Russia
Russia had sought to maintain goodrelations with Azerbaijan and had sold weapons to both parties. Even prior to the war, Russia had possessed amilitary base in Armenia as part of amilitary alliance with Armenia, and thus was obligated by treaty to defend Armenia in the case of a war. Like in Syria and in Libya's ongoing civil war, Russia and NATO-member Turkey therefore had opposing interests.[325] Turkey appeared to use the conflict to attempt to leverage its influence in the South Caucasus along its eastern border, using both military and diplomatic resources to extend its sphere of influence in the Middle East, and to marginalise the influence of Russia, anotherregional power.[326][327] Russia had historically pursued a policy of maintaining neutrality in the conflict, and Armenia never formally requested aid.[60] According to the director of the Russia studies program at theCNA, at the beginning of the war Russia was judged to be unlikely to intervene militarily unless Armenia incurred drastic losses.[60] The Russian MoFA also released a statement, saying that Russia will provide Armenia with "all the necessary assistance" if the war continued on the territories of Armenia, as both countries are part of theCollective Security Treaty Organization.[328][329] Nonetheless, when the Azerbaijani forces reportedly struck the Armenian territories on 14 October 2020, Russia did not directly interfere in the conflict.[330]In a piece published by the Russian broadsheetVedomosti on 10 November, Konstantin Makienko, a member of theState Duma Defence Committee, wrote that the geopolitical consequences of the war were "catastrophic" not only for Armenia but for Russia as well, because Moscow's influence in the Southern Caucasus had dwindled while "the prestige of a successful and feisty Turkey, contrariwise, had increased immensely".[331] Alexander Gabuev of theCarnegie Moscow Center took the opposite view, describing the peace agreement as "a win for Russia", as it had "prevented the conclusive defeat of Nagorno-Karabakh" and, by placing Russia in charge of the strategic Lachin corridor, boosted the country's leverage in the region.[332]
The relative success of Azerbaijan in meeting its strategic goals to gain control over Nagorno-Karabakh via the use of military force may have influenced theRussian decision to invade Ukraine in 2022.[333]
Azerbaijan's oil wealth allowed a consistently highermilitary budget than Armenia,[312] and it purchased advanced weapons systems from Israel, Russia and Turkey.[118] Despite the similar size of both militaries, Azerbaijan possessed superior tanks, armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles,[121] and had also amassed a fleet of Turkish and Israeli drones. Armenia built its own drones, but these were greatly inferior to the Turkish and Israeli drones owned by Azerbaijan.[121] Azerbaijan had a quantitative advantage in artillery systems, particularlyself-propelled guns and long-rangemultiple rocket launchers, while Armenia had a minor advantage intactical ballistic missiles.[22] Because of the air defence systems of both sides, there was little use of manned aviation during the conflict.[121] In the opinion of military analystMichael Kofman, Director of the Russia Studies Program at theCNA and a Fellow at theKennan Institute, Azerbaijan deployed mercenaries from Syria to minimise Azeri troop casualties: "They took quite a few casualties early on, especially in the south-east, and these mercenaries were essentially used as expendable assault troops to go in the first wave. They calculated quite cynically that if it turned out these offensives were not successful early on, then it was best these casualties would be among mercenaries not Azerbaijani forces."[334]
According to Gustav Gressel, a Senior Policy Fellow at theEuropean Council on Foreign Relations, the Armenian Army was superior to the Azerbaijani Army on a tactical level, with better officers, more agile leadership, and higher motivation in soldiers but these were overcome by Azerbaijan's innovative use of drones to discover Armenian forward and reserve positions followed by conventional artillery and ballistic missiles to isolate and destroy Armenian forces.[129] Gressel argues that European militaries are not better prepared for anti-drone warfare than Armenia's (with only France and Germany having some limited jamming capabilities) and warns that a lack of gun-based self-propelled air-defence systems and radar systems capable of tracking drones (using "plot-fusion" of several radar echoes) makes European forces extremely vulnerable to loitering munitions and small drones.[129]
In the opinion of aForbes magazine contributor, Azerbaijan managed to inflict a devastating and decisive defeat through adept usage of sophisticated military hardware which avoided bogging down in a costly war of attrition. According to Forbes, Azerbaijan had prepared itself for tomorrow's war rather than a repeat of yesterday's war.[335]
TheInternational Institute for Strategic Studies presented a summary of analyses by Russian military experts, who concluded that the Azerbaijani victory was not just a result of drone warfare and Turkish assistance, but could actually be attributed to a number of other factors, such as a more professional army with recent battlefield experience, employment by Armenia of Soviet-era tactics against the modern warfare waged by Azerbaijan, a strong national will to fight on part of Azerbaijan compared to irresolute Armenian leadership, and the Armenians believing their own propaganda and underestimating the enemy.[336]
In the opinion voiced by Russian military expert Vladimir Yevseev after the war, for unclear reasons Armenia appeared not to have executed the mobilisation it had announced and hardly any mobilised personnel were deployed to the conflict area.[337]
Azerbaijan made devastating use of drones and sensors, demonstrating whatThe Economist described as a "new, more affordable type of air power".[118] Azerbaijani drones, notably the Turkish-madeBayraktar TB2, carried out precisestrikes as well asreconnaissance, relaying the coordinates of targets to Azerbaijani artillery.[64] Commentators noted how drones enabled small countries to conduct effective air campaigns, potentially makinglow-level conflicts much more deadly.[338]Close air support was provided by specialised suicide drones such as the Israeli-madeIAI Haroploitering munition, rendering tanks vulnerable and suggesting the need for changes to armoured warfare doctrine.[339] Another suicide drone, the Turkish-madeSTM Kargu, was also reportedly used by Azerbaijan.[340][341]
Both sides engaged in extensivepropaganda campaigns through official mainstream and social media accounts magnified online,[65] including in Russian media. Video from drones recording their kills was used in highly effective Azerbaijani propaganda.[64][118] In Baku, digital billboards broadcast high-resolution footage of missiles striking Armenian soldiers, tanks, and materiel. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev told Turkish television that Azerbaijani-operated drones had reduced the number of Azerbaijan's casualties, stating, "These drones show Turkey's strength" and "empower" Azerbaijanis.[121]
Cyberwarfare
Hackers from Armenia and Azerbaijan as well as their allied countries have wagedcyberwarfare, with Azerbaijani hackers targeting Armenian websites and posting Aliyev's statements,[348] and Greek hackers targeting Azerbaijani governmental websites.[349] There have been coordinated messages posted from both sides.Misinformation and videos of older events and other conflicts have been shared as new. New social media accounts posting about Armenia and Azerbaijan have spiked, with many from authentic users, but many inauthentic also.[350][351] According to the EU Parliament, Azerbaijani information operations also specifically aimed at harassing Armenia social media users.[352]
Official statements
Armenia and Artsakh
On 27 September 2020, thePrime Minister of Armenia,Nikol Pashinyan, accused the Azerbaijani authorities of a large-scale provocation. The Prime Minister stated that the "recent aggressive statements of the Azerbaijani leadership, large-scale joint military exercises with Turkey, as well as the rejection of OSCE proposals for monitoring" indicated that the aggression was pre-planned and constituted a major violation of regional peace and security.[353] The next day, Armenia'sMinistry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) issued a statement, noting that the "people of Artsakh were at war with theTurkish–Azerbaijani alliance".[354]
The same day, the Armenian ambassador to Russia, Vardan Toganyan, did not rule out that Armenia may turn to Russia for fresh arms supplies.[355] On 29 September 2020, Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that Azerbaijan, with military support from Turkey, was expanding the theatre into Armenian territory.[356] On 30 September 2020, Pashinyan stated that Armenia was considering officially recognising the Republic of Artsakh as an independent territory.[357] The same day, the Armenian MoFA stated that the Turkish Air Force had carried out provocative flights along the front between the forces of the Republic of Artsakh and Azerbaijan, including providing air support to the Azerbaijani army.[358]
On 1 October 2020, the President of Artsakh,Arayik Harutyunyan, stated that Armenians needed to prepare for a long-term war.[359] Two days later, the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) Foreign Ministry called on the international community to recognise theindependence of the Republic of Artsakh in order to restore regional peace and security.[360]
On 6 October 2020, the Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, stated that the Armenian side was prepared to make concessions, if Azerbaijan was ready to reciprocate.[361]
On 9 October 2020,Armen Sarkissian demanded that international powers, particularly, the United States, Russia andNATO, do more to stop Turkey's involvement in the war and warned thatAnkara is creating "another Syria in the Caucasus".[362]
On 21 October 2020, Nikol Pashinyan stated that "it is impossible to talk about a diplomatic solution at this stage, at least at this stage", since the compromise option is not acceptable for Azerbaijan, while the Armenian side stated many times that it is ready to resolve the issue through compromises. Pashinyan said that "to fight for the rights of our people means, first of all, to take up arms and commit to the protection of the rights of the homeland".[363]
On 12 November 2020, Pashinyan addressed his nation, saying that "Armenia and the Armenian people are living extremely difficult days. There is sorrow in the hearts of all of us, tears in the eyes of all of us, pain in the souls of all of us". The prime minister pointed out that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Armenia reported that the war "must be stopped immediately". And the President of Artsakh warned that if the hostilities do not stop, Stepanakert could be lost in days. Pashinyan also stated that the Karabakh issue was not resolved and is not resolved and that the international recognition of the Artsakh Republic is becoming an absolute priority.[364]
According to theAzerbaijani Ministry of Defence, the Armenian military violated the ceasefire 48 times along the line of contact on 26 September 2020, the day before the conflict. Azerbaijan stated that the Armenian side attacked first, prompting an Azerbaijani counter-offensive.[365]
On 27 September 2020, Azerbaijan accused Armenian forces of a "willful and deliberate" attack on the front line[366] and of targeting civilian areas, alleging a "gross violation ofinternational humanitarian law".[367] On 28 September 2020, it stated that Armenia's actions had destroyed the peace negotiations through an act of aggression,[368] alleged that a war had been launched against Azerbaijan, mobilised the people of Azerbaijan, and declared aGreat Patriotic War.[369] It then stated that the deployment of the Armenian military in Nagorno-Karabakh constituted a threat to regional peace and accused Armenia of propagandising, adding that the Azerbaijani military was operating according to international law.[370] The Azerbaijani authorities issued a statement accusing the Armenian military of purposefully targeting civilians, including women and children.[371] The Azerbaijani Minister of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) denied any reports of Turkish involvement, while admitting military-technical cooperation with Turkey and other countries.[372]
On 29 September 2020, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, said that Armenian control of the area and aggression had led to the destruction of infrastructure and mosques, caused theKhojaly massacre and resulted incultural genocide, and was tantamount to state-backedIslamophobia andanti-Azerbaijani sentiment.[373] The Azerbaijani MoFA demanded that Armenia stop shelling civilians and called on international organisations to ensure Armenia followed international law.[374] Azerbaijan denied reports of mercenaries brought in from Turkey by Azerbaijan,[375][376] and theFirst Vice-president of the Republic of Azerbaijan,Mehriban Aliyeva, stated that Azerbaijan had never laid claim to others' territory nor committed crimes against humanity.[377]
On 3 October 2020, Aliyev stated that Armenia needed to leave Azerbaijan's territory (in Nagorno-Karabakh) for the war to stop.[378] The next day, Aliyev issued an official statement that Azerbaijan was "writing a new history", describing Karabakh as an ancient Azerbaijani territory and longstanding home to Azerbaijanis, and claiming that Armenians had occupied Azerbaijan's territory, destroying its religious and cultural heritage, for three decades. He added that Azerbaijan would restore its cities and destroyed mosques and accused Armenia of distorting history.[379]
Two days later, Aliyev's aide,Hikmat Hajiyev, said that Armenia had deployed cluster munitions against cities,[380] however this had not been verified by other sources. On 7 October 2020, Azerbaijan officially notified members of the World Conference on Constitutional Justice, the Conference of European Constitutional Courts, the Association of Asian Constitutional Courts and similar organisations that it had launched the operation in line with international law to re-establish its internationally recognised territorial integrity and for the safety of its people.[381] He also accused Armenia ofethnic discrimination on account of the historical expulsion or self-exile of ethnic minority communities, highlighting itsmono-ethnic population.[382]
On 10 October 2020, Azerbaijani Foreign MinisterJeyhun Bayramov stated that the truce signed on the same day was temporary.[383] Despite this, Aliyev stated that both parties were now attempting to determine a political resolution to the conflict.[384]
On 21 October 2020, Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan did not rule out the introduction of international observers and peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, but will put forward some conditions when the time comes.[385] He then added that Azerbaijan did not agree for areferendum in Nagorno-Karabakh,[386] but didn't exclude the cultural autonomy of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh,[385] and reaffirmed that the Azerbaijan considers Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh as their citizens, promising security and rights.[387]
On 26 October 2020, Aliyev stated that the Azerbaijani government will inspect and record the destruction by Armenian forces in Armenian-occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh during theNagorno-Karabakh conflict.[388]
Because of the geography, history, and sensitivities of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, accusations, allegations, and statements have been made of involvement by third-party and international actors.
^On 21 October 2021, theMinistry of Defence of the Republic of Azerbaijan published a list of dead servicemen. It said 2,908 people were killed during the war,[35] although at least two of the soldiers named were killed after the conflict ended,[36][37] leaving a total of 2,906 servicemen confirmed killed in the war.
^abBy 27 September 2021, 84 civilians were confirmed killed in the conflict, 80 of which died in the Republic of Artsakh and 4 were killed in Armenia.[1][2] Another 22 were still missing.[3] Subsequently, the number of civilians missing was updated to 21 by 21 March 2022,[4] bringing the total number of confirmed civilian fatalities to 85.
^Nagorno-Karabakh was anautonomous region of Azerbaijan during the Soviet era, and is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan. At the end of the Soviet period, it was recorded as being populated by 76.9% Armenians, 21.5% Azerbaijanis, and 1.5% other groups, totalling 188,685 persons, in the 1989 census. The surrounding districts, occupied by the Republic of Artsakh since the 1994 ceasefire, were recorded in the 1979 census to have a population of 97.7%Azerbaijanis, 1.3%Kurds, 0.7%Russians, 0.1%Armenians, and 0.1%Lezgins, for a total of 186,874 persons. This does not include the populations ofFuzuli District andAgdam District, which were only partially under Armenian control before the 2020 war.
^Tsvetkova, Maria; Auyezov, Olzhas (9 November 2020)."Analysis: Russia and Turkey keep powder dry in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict".Reuters. Retrieved4 March 2021.Turkey's support for Azerbaijan has been vital, and Azerbaijan's superior weaponry and battlefield advances have reduced its incentive to reach a lasting peace deal. Ankara denies its troops are involved in fighting but Aliyev has acknowledged some Turkish F-16 fighter jets remained in Azerbaijan after a military drill this summer, and there are reports of Russian and Turkish drones being used by both sides.
^Ed Butler (10 December 2020)."The Syrian mercenaries used as 'cannon fodder' in Nagorno-Karabakh".BBC. Retrieved23 July 2024.Although Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey deny the use of mercenaries, researchers have amassed a considerable amount of photographic evidence, drawn from videos and photographs the fighters have posted online, which tells a different story.
^Cookman, Liz (5 October 2020)."Syrians Make Up Turkey's Proxy Army in Nagorno-Karabakh".Foreign Policy. Retrieved23 July 2024.According to sources within the Syrian National Army (SNA), the umbrella term for a group of opposition militias backed by Turkey, around 1,500 Syrians have so far been deployed to the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in the southern Caucasus ... Shortly after conflict erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Turkey sought to mobilize the SNA, sometimes called Turkey's proxy army ... The first fighters were transferred in late September to southern Turkey and then flown from Gaziantep to Ankara, before being transferred to Azerbaijan on Sept. 25.
^ab"Release of the Press Service of the President". Azerbaijan State News Agency. 19 October 2020. Retrieved20 October 2020.Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev congratulated Chief of the State Border Service (SBS), Colonel General Elchin Guliyev on raising the Azerbaijani flag over the Khudafarin bridge, liberating several residential settlements with the participation of the SBS, and instructed to convey his congratulations to all personnel. Colonel General Elchin Guliyev reported that the State Border Service personnel will continue to decently fulfill all the tasks set by the Commander-in-Chief.
^"Bu gün general olan 4 hərbçi kimdir?" [Who are the 4 servicemen that became generals today?].Milli.az (in Azerbaijani). 7 December 2020. Archived from the original on 7 December 2020. Retrieved8 December 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
^Hovhannisyan, Samvel (16 January 2021)."Дуэль Ванецяна и Кярамяна – стреляют друг в друга, попадают в Армению" [Duel of Vanetsyan and Kyaramyan – shoot each other, end up in Armenia].ArmenianReport (in Russian). Archived from the original on 28 January 2021. Retrieved21 January 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
^abcdKofman, Michael (2 October 2020)."Armenia–Azerbaijan War: Military Dimensions of the Conflict".russiamatters.org. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Archived from the original on 5 October 2020. Retrieved3 October 2020.On 27 September 2020, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive, resulting in fighting that spans much of the line of contact in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh...{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
^abKucera, Joshua (29 September 2020)."As fighting rages, what is Azerbaijan's goal?".eurasianet.org.Archived from the original on 4 October 2020. Retrieved29 September 2020.The Azerbaijani offensive against Armenian forces is its most ambitious since the war between the two sides formally ended in 1994.
^Jones, Dorian (28 September 2020)."Turkey Vows Support for Azerbaijan in Escalating Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict". Voice of America. Archived from the original on 1 October 2020. Retrieved28 September 2020.'Turkey is already supporting Azerbaijan militarily, technical assistance and arms sales, providing critical military support, especially in terms of armed drones and technical expertise', said Turkish analyst Ilhan Uzgel.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
^Hedenskog, Jakob; Lund, Aron; Norberg, Johan. "The End of the Second Karabakh War: New realities in the South Caucasus".Swedish Defence Research Agency. Stockholm.
^"UNHCR publication for CIS Conference (Displacement in the CIS) – Conflicts in the Caucasus".UNHCR. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. 1 May 1996. Retrieved18 November 2020.This mountain enclave, mostly inhabited by people of Armenian language and origin, had been placed under Azerbaijan's jurisdiction in the 1920s, and was entirely surrounded by villages populated by Azeris.
^Broers, Laurence (2019).Armenia and Azerbaijan: Anatomy of Rivalry. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press. p. 18.ISBN978-1-4744-5055-3.Armenians see the campaign that emerged in 1987 to unify Karabakh and Armenia as peaceful, yet met with organized pogroms killing dozens of Armenians in the Azerbaijani cities of Sumgait, Kirovabad (today's Ganja) and Baku in 1988–1990.
^ab"Карабах: хронология конфликт" [Karabakh: Chronology of the conflict].BBC Russian Service (in Russian). BBC. 29 August 2005. Archived from the original on 11 July 2012. Retrieved5 November 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
^abKhlystun, Victor (1 February 2001)."10 БАЛЛОВ ПО ШКАЛЕ ПОЛИТБЮРО" [10 POINTS ON THE POLITBURO SCALE].Trud (in Russian). Retrieved5 November 2020.
^abPapyan, Mane (22 April 2015)."Gugark after Sumgait".Caucasus Edition (in Russian). Archived from the original on 25 November 2020. Retrieved5 November 2020.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
^"Azerbaijani President: There is not a single evidence of any foreign presence in Azerbaijan".apa.az. 3 October 2020. Retrieved3 October 2020.There is not a single evidence of any foreign presence in Azerbaijan. We have capable army. We have enough people in our army, we have enough people in our reserves. I announced a partial mobilization, which will allow us to involve tens of thousands of reservists. If necessary, so we don't need it. Armenia needs it, because Armenian population is declining. And it is only two million people.
^Ronzheimer, Paul; Moutafis, Giorgos (9 October 2020)."Church bombed to ruins" (in German). Bild. Archived from the original on 11 October 2020. Retrieved11 October 2020.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
^Gamaghelyan, Philip; Rumyantsev, Sergey (2021). "The road to the Second Karabakh War: the role of ethno-centric narratives in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict".Caucasus Survey.9 (3):330–331.doi:10.1080/23761199.2021.1932068.ISSN2376-1199.S2CID237801805.
^Kovatchev, Andrey (20 February 2023)."REPORT on EU-Armenia relations | A9-0036/2023 | European Parliament".www.europarl.europa.eu. Retrieved19 March 2023.Armenia is the target of Azerbaijani information operations, in particular with the aim of harassing social media users and disseminating false information
^"President Ilham Aliyev: Today we are writing a new history of our people and state, a glorious history".apa.az. 4 October 2020. Retrieved4 October 2020.As you know, Azerbaijan has been fighting to restore its territorial integrity for a week now. On the battlefield, our soldiers and officers show heroism, inflict crushing blows on the enemy, put the enemy in its place, drive the enemy out of our lands at the cost of their lives... We are restoring historical justice today because the land of Karabakh is our ancient historical land. The people of Azerbaijan have lived, created and built in these lands for centuries. But for many years, for almost 30 years, Armenian executioners have occupied our lands, destroyed all our historical, religious and cultural sites. We will restore all our cities. We will restore all our mosques destroyed by the Armenians. Life will return to these places. We have put an end to the attempts of Armenians to change our historical names and falsify history, to erase the historical and cultural heritage of the Azerbaijani people. The historical names of our settlements are being restored and they will be restored.
^"President Ilham Aliyev: "Armenia is a racist country, representatives of no other nationality can live there"".apa.az. 8 October 2020. Retrieved8 October 2020.There are representatives of many nationalities living in Azerbaijan. They live like one family. Azerbaijan is known as a multicultural country worldwide. This is acknowledged by the United Nations, as well as other international organizations operating in the humanitarian field. Azerbaijan is the land of tolerance, ethnic and religious tolerance. Thousands of Armenians live in our country today and they are our citizens. They also live normally, like all other nationalities. Of course, I am sure that after the end of this war and conflict, the Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh today will live with us. Azerbaijan is a multinational country. This has been the case throughout history. I think this is our great advantage.
"The Second Nagorno Karabakh War"(PDF).Disinformation and Misinofrmation in Armenia Confronting the Power of False Narratives. Freedom House:17–23. June 2021.
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