The termsSecond Cold War,[1][2][3]Cold War II,[4][5] andNew Cold War[6][7][8][9] have been used to describe heightenedgeopolitical tensions in the 21st centurypost–Cold War era, usually between theUnited States andNATO on one side, withRussia and/orChina on the other. Russia is regarded as thesuccessor state of theSoviet Union, which led theEastern Bloc during the originalCold War.
The terms are sometimes used to describe tensions inmultilateral relations, includingChina–Russia relations. Some commentators have used the terms as a comparison to the original Cold War, while others have discouraged their use to refer to any ongoing tensions.
The phrase "new Cold War" was used in 1955 by US secretary of stateJohn Foster Dulles, and in a 1956New York Times article warning ofSoviet propaganda promoting the Cold War's resurgence.[10]
Other sources,[11][12][13] such as academicsFred Halliday,[14][15]Alan M. Wald,[16]David S. Painter,[17] andNoam Chomsky,[18] used the interchangeable terms to refer to the1979–1985 and/or1985–1991 phases of the Cold War. Some other sources[19][20] used similar terms to refer to the Cold War of the mid-1970s. ColumnistWilliam Safire argued in a 1975New York Times editorial that theNixon administration's policy ofdétente with the Soviet Union had failed and that "Cold War II" was then underway.[21]
AcademicGordon H. Chang used the term "Cold War II" to refer to the Cold War period afterthe 1972 meeting in China between US PresidentRichard Nixon and Chinese Communist Party chairmanMao Zedong.[22]
In May 1998,George Kennan described theUS Senate vote toexpand NATO to includePoland,Hungary, and theCzech Republic as "the beginning of a new cold war", and predicted that "the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies".[23]
In 2001, foreign policy and security expertsJames M. Lindsay andIvo Daalder describedcounterterrorism as the "new Cold War".[24]
British journalistEdward Lucas wrote in February 2008 that a new cold war between Russia and the West had already begun.[25]
In a 2016 op-ed forThe Straits Times, Kor Kian Beng wrote that the phrase "new Cold War" between US-led allies versus Beijing and Moscow did not gain traction in China at first. This changed in 2016 after the United States announced its plan to deployTerminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) in South Korea against North Korea, but China and Russia found the advanced anti-missile system too close for comfort. The US also supported atribunal ruling against China in favor of the Philippines in the South China Sea. Afterwards, the term "new Cold War" appeared in Chinese media more often. Analysts believe this does not reflect China's desire to pursue such a strategy but precautions should still be in place to lower the chances of any escalation.[26][27]
In June 2019,University of Southern California (USC) professorsSteven Lamy andRobert D. English agreed that the "new Cold War" would distract political parties from bigger issues such as globalization, global warming, global poverty, increasing inequality, and far-rightpopulism. However, Lamy said that the new Cold War had not yet begun, while English said that it already had. English further said that China poses a far greater threat than Russia in cyberwarfare but not as much as far-right populism does from within liberal states like the US.[28]
In his September 2021 speech to theUnited Nations General Assembly, US PresidentJoe Biden said that the US is "not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs." Biden further said that the US would cooperate "with any nation that steps up and pursues peaceful resolution to shared challenges," despite "intense disagreement in other areas, because we'll all suffer the consequences of our failure."[29][30]
In May 2022,David Panuelo, President of Micronesia, used the term to state his opposition to a proposed cooperation agreement between China and ten island nations, by claiming it could create a "new 'cold war' between China and the west."[31]
In June 2022, journalistMichael Hirsh used the term "[global] Cold War" to refer to tensions between leaders ofNATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and China and its ally Russia, both countries striving to challenge the US's role as a superpower. Hirsh further cited growing tensions between the US and China as one of the causes of the newer Cold War alongside NATO's speech about China's "systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to alliance security". He further cited the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as one of factors of the newer Cold War's rise.[32]
In July 2022,James Traub used the term while discussing how the ideas of theNon-Aligned Movement, a forum of neutral countries organised during the original Cold War, can be used to understand the reaction of democratic countries in the developing world to current tensions.[33] In the same month France, the United States and Russia scheduled high-level, multi-country diplomatic visits in Africa.[34] An article reporting on these trips used the term "new Cold War" in relation to what "some say is the most intense competition for influence [in Africa] since the [original] Cold War".[34]
An article published in the July 2022 issue of the journalIntereconomics linked the possible "beginning of a new cold war between the West and the East" with "the rebirth of a new era of conflict, the end of the late 20th century unipolar international security architecture under the hegemony of the United States, [and] the end of globalisation".[35]
In August 2022, an analysis article in the Israeli newspaperHaaretz used the term to refer to the US's "open confrontation with Russia and China". The article continues on to discuss the impact of the current situation on Israel, concluding that "in the new Cold War, [Israel] cannot allow itself to be neutral."[36] In the same month,Katrina vanden Heuvel used the term while cautioning against what she perceived as a "reflexive bipartisan embrace of a new Cold War" against Russia and China among US politicians.[37]
In September 2022, a Greek civil engineer and politicianAnna Diamantopoulou further stated, despite unity of NATO members, "the West has lost much of its normative power," citing her "meetings with politicians from Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East." She further stated that the West will risk losing "a new cold war" unless it overcomes challenges that would give Russia and China a greater world advantage. She further gave suggestions to the Western powers, including the European Union.[38]
In September 2023,General Secretary of the Workers' Party of KoreaKim Jong Un called for an accelerated increase in the production ofdomestic nuclear weapons in response to the world entering a "new Cold War" between the United States and a "coalition of nations" including China, Russia, and North Korea.[39]
In December 2023,Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that the deepening "fragmentation" between the two power blocs—one by the United States and European allies; another by China and Russia—would lead to "cold war two", impacting "gains from open trade" and risking potentially loss of up toUS$7 trillion.[40][41][42][43]
InThe Diplomat June 2024 article,University of Bonn (Germany) professor Maximilian Mayer andJagiellonian University (Poland) professorEmilian Kavalski opined that theChina–Russia relations have been stronger than before and that Xi's China will "fully back Putin's effort to threaten and undermine [Western] liberal democratic states", threatening European security and dashing any hopes that the relations between the two countries would become further strained. Mayer and Kavalski further criticised Europe for lacking "historical templates" and its "tripartite approach to China—as [its] partner, competitor, and rival—"as "woefully outdated because it [the approach] lacks a security angle altogether." Both the professors further advised Europe to address China's strong ties with and strong support for Russia's further aggressive plans toward Europe.[44]
The US senior defence officialJed Babbin,[45] Yale University professorDavid Gelernter,[46]Firstpost editorR. Jagannathan,[47] Subhash Kapila of the South Asia Analysis Group,[48] former Australian Prime MinisterKevin Rudd,[49] and some other sources[50][51][52] have used the term (occasionally using the term "Pacific Cold War")[45] to refer to tensions between theUnited States and China in the 2000s and 2010s.
Donald Trump, who was inaugurated as US president in 2017, had repeatedly said during his presidential campaign that he considered China a threat, a stance that heightened speculations of the possibility of a "new cold war with China".[53][54][55]Claremont McKenna College professorMinxin Pei said that Trump's election win and "ascent to the presidency" may increase chances of the possibility.[56] In March 2017, a self-declared socialist magazineMonthly Review said, "With the rise of the Trump administration, the new Cold War with Russia has been put on hold", and also said that the Trump administration has planned to shift from Russia to China as its main competitor.[57]
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 "Vice President Mike Pence's Remarks on the Administration's Policy Towards China" |
In July 2018, Michael Collins, deputy assistant director of the CIA's East Asia mission center, told the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado that he believed China underGeneral Secretary of the Chinese Communist PartyXi Jinping, while unwilling to go to war, was waging a "quiet kind of cold war" against the United States, seeking to replace the US as the leading global power. He further elaborated: "What they're waging against us is fundamentally a cold war — a cold war not like we saw during [the] Cold War (between the U.S. and the Soviet Union) but a cold war by definition".[58] In October 2018, Hong Kong'sLingnan University professor Zhang Baohui toldThe New York Times that a speech by United States Vice-presidentMike Pence at theHudson Institute "will look like the declaration of a new Cold War".[59]
In January 2019,Robert D. Kaplan of theCenter for a New American Security wrote that "it is nothing less than a new cold war: The constant, interminable Chinese computer hacks of American warships' maintenance records, Pentagon personnel records, and so forth constitute war by other means. This situation will last decades and will only get worse".[60]
In February 2019, Joshua Shifrinson, an associate professor fromBoston University, said concerns over a new cold war was "overblown", saying US-China relations were different from that of US–Soviet Union relations during the original Cold War, and that ideology would play a less prominent role in their bilateral relationship.[61]
In June 2019, academic Stephen Wertheim called President Trump a "xenophobe" and criticised Trump's foreign policy toward China for heightening risks of a new Cold War, which Wertheim wrote "could plunge the United States back into gruesome proxy wars around the world and risk a still deadlier war among the great powers."[62][63]
In August 2019, Yuan Peng of theChina Institute of International Studies said that the2008 financial crisis "initiated a shift in the global order." Yuan predicted the possibility of the new cold war between both countries and their global power competition turning "from 'superpower vs. major power' to 'No. 1 vs. No. 2'." On the other hand, scholar Zhu Feng said that their "strategic competition" would not lead to the new Cold War. Zhu said that the US–China relations have progressed positively and remained "stable", despitedisputes in the South China Sea andTaiwan Strait and US President Trump's aggressive approaches toward China.[64]
In January 2020, columnist and historianNiall Ferguson opined that China is one of the major players of this Cold War, whose powers are "economic rather than military", and that Russia's role is "quite small".[65] Ferguson wrote: "[C]ompared with the 1950s, the roles have been reversed. China is now the giant, Russia the mean little sidekick.China under Xi remains strikingly faithful to the doctrine of Marx and Lenin. Russia under Putin has reverted toTsarism."[65] Ferguson wrote that this Cold War is different from the original Cold War because the US "is so intertwined with China" at the point where "decoupling" is as others argued "a delusion" and because "America's traditional allies are much less eager to align themselves with Washington and against Beijing." He further wrote that the new Cold War "shifted away from trade to technology" when both the US and Chinasigned their Phase One trade deal.[65]
In a February 2020 interview withThe Japan Times, Ferguson suggested that, to "contain China", the US "work intelligently with its Asian and European allies", as the US had done in the original Cold War, rather than on its own and perform something more effective than "tariffs, which are a very blunt instrument." He also said that the US under Trump has been "rather poor" at makingforeign relations.[66]
On 24 May 2020, Chinese Foreign MinisterWang Yi said that relations with the US were on the "brink of a new Cold War" after it was fueled by tensions over theCOVID-19 pandemic.[67]
In June 2020, Boston College political scientistRobert S. Ross wrote that the US and China "are destined to compete [but] not destined for violent conflict or a cold war."[68] In July, Ross said that the Trump "administration would like to fully decouple from China. No trade, no cultural exchanges, no political exchanges, no cooperation on anything that resembles common interests."[69]
In August 2020, aLa Trobe University professor Nick Bisley wrote that the US–China rivalry "will be no Cold War" but rather will "be more complex, harder to manage, and last much longer." He further wrote that comparing the old Cold War to the ongoing rivalry "is a risky endeavour."[70]
In September 2020, the UN Secretary GeneralAntónio Guterres warned that the increasing tensions between the US under Trump and China under Xi were leading to "a Great Fracture" which would become costly to the world. CCP General SecretaryXi Jinping replied by saying that "China has no intention to fight either a Cold War or a hot one with any country."[71]
In March 2021,Columbia University professorThomas J. Christensen wrote that the cold war between the US and China "is unlikely" in comparison to the original Cold War, citing China's prominence in the "global production chain" and absence of the authoritarianism vs.liberal democracy dynamic. Christensen further advised those concerned about the tensions between the two nations to research China's role in the global economy and its "foreign policy toward international conflicts and civil wars" between liberal and authoritarian forces.[72]
In September 2021, former Portuguese defence and foreign ministerPaulo Portas described the announcement of theAUKUS security pact and the ensuing unprecedented diplomatic crisis between the signatories (Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and France (which has several territories in the Indo-Pacific) as a possible formal starting point of a new Cold War.[73]
On 7 November 2021, President Joe Biden's national security adviserJake Sullivan stated that the US does not pursue system change in China anymore,[74] marking a clear break from theChina policy pursued by previous US administrations. Sullivan said that the US is not seeking a new Cold War with China, but is looking for a system of peaceful coexistence.[75]
In November 2021,Hal Brands and Yale professorJohn Lewis Gaddis wrote inForeign Affairs that while it was no longer debatable that the United States and China has been entering into their "own new cold war," it was not clear that the world has also been following suit and entering into a new cold war.[76]
In a December 2022 editorial published just before being electedUS House speaker,Kevin McCarthy wrote that "China and the US are locked in a cold war." Theop-ed also announced the creation of theHouse Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party.[77]
In early 2023,Jorge Heine, former Chilean ambassador to China and professor of international relations atBoston University, said the looming new Cold War between the US and China has become apparent to "a growing consensus", and described the new Cold War as "more alike than [it is] different" from the one fought between the US and Soviet Union, and saying the presence of "ideological-military overtones is now widely accepted."[78]
In the October 2024 article for theTomDispatch blog, a history professorAlfred W. McCoy wrote that, despite rising renewed tensions between China and the US, the Asian–Pacific allies of the US would be likely losers. McCoy warned that, if China's numerous breaches on Taiwan become "a crippling embargo of Taiwan," the US would lose Taiwan, risking a break of "America's island chain in the Pacific littoral, pushing it back to a 'second island chain' in the mid-Pacific," regardless of the US's decisions on Taiwan. He further cited growing anti-American sentiment in the Philippines, the opposition towardAUKUS (trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) from certain members of theLabor Party as a threat to Australia's sovereignty, and the Republican Party populism in the US under Trump (or his successor-in-lineJD Vance) potentially curtailing the US's ability to maintain its alliance with the Asia–Pacific countries.[79]
In January 2025, almost two weeks before Biden ended his term,Hoover Institution senior fellowNiall Ferguson wrote that the US has had "a second cold war" with China for at least six years and that the war further intensified under the Biden administration. Ferguson drew comparisons between Trump and then-US PresidentRonald Reagan, like assassination attempts on them, but further suggested that Trump use the Reagan administration's past approach inforeign policy.[80]
In early February 2025,Michael McFaul, aStanford University political science professor and former US ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014, wrote viaThe Dispatch that Trump still viewed China as a major rival during his second term. McFaul criticised the second Trump administration for risking its chances to win "Cold War 2.0". He further criticised the administration's foreign policy decisions—for example, calling Canada a potential51st state candidate, announcing possibility of obtainingGreenland from a NATO allyDenmark by either sale or military force, and attempts to shut downUnited States Agency for International Development (USAID)—for giving China and its ally Russia more advantage and risking ties with longtime US allies. McFaul further wrote, "We will not be able to win Cold War 2.0 on our own."[81]
Some have used the term to describe the worsening relations between Russia on one side and theWest orNATO or, more specifically, the United States on the other since Russia's 2014annexation of Crimea andintervention in Eastern Ukraine,[82][83][84][85][86] which started theRusso-Ukrainian war. Others argue that the term is not appropriate.
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Sources disagree as to whether a period of global tension analogous to the Cold War is possible in the future,[87][88][89][90][91] while others, like aCarnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin, have used the term to describe the ongoing renewed tensions and hostilities that rose dramatically in 2014 between Russia and the West.[85]
Some political analysts argue that Russia's 2014annexation of Crimea, which started theRusso-Ukrainian conflict, marked the beginning of a new Cold War between Russia and the West or NATO.[83][84][85][86][92] By August 2014, both sides had implemented economic, financial, and diplomatic sanctions upon each other: virtually all Western countries, led by the US and European Union, imposedpunitive measures on Russia, which introducedretaliatory measures.[93][94]
In 2014, notable figures such asMikhail Gorbachev warned, against the backdrop of a confrontation between Russia and the West over the Russo-Ukrainian War,[95][96][97] that the world was on the brink of a new cold war, or that it was already occurring.[98][99] The American political scientistRobert Legvold also believes a new cold war between Russia and the West started in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and supported an insurgency in eastern Ukraine.[100][101]Ian Bremmer, president of theEurasia Group, argued that the Ukraine conflict did not fit his definition of a cold war.[102][103]
Stephen F. Cohen,[104]Robert D. Crane,[105] andAlex Vatanka[106] have all referred to a "US–Russian Cold War".
Sources opposed to the term argue that while new tensions between Russia and the West over the Ukraine conflict have similarities with those during the Cold War, there are also major differences,[107] and provide Russia with new avenues for exerting influence, such as inBelarus and Central Asia, which have not seen the type of direct military action in which Russia engaged in less cooperative former Soviet states like Ukraine and theCaucasus region.[108]
In June 2014, theMinistry of Defense of North Macedonia published an article asserting that the term "Cold War II" was as a misnomer.[109]
In February 2016, at theMunich Security Conference, NATO Secretary GeneralJens Stoltenberg said that NATO and Russia were "not in a cold-war situation but also not in the partnership that we established at the end of the Cold War",[110] while Russian Prime MinisterDmitry Medvedev, speaking of what he called NATO's "unfriendly and opaque" policy on Russia, said "One could go as far as to say that we have slid back to a new Cold War".[111] In October 2016 and March 2017, Stoltenberg said that NATO did not seek "a new Cold War" or "a new arms race" with Russia.[112][113]
In February 2016, aHigher School of Economics university academic andHarvard University visiting scholar Yuval Weber wrote onE-International Relations that "the world is not entering Cold War II", asserting that the current tensions and ideologies of Russia and Western countries are not similar to those of the original Cold War, that conflicts in Europe and the Middle East do not destabilise other areas geographically, and that Russia "is far more integrated with the outside world than the Soviet Union ever was". However, he suggested that Russia and the West were in the midst of a "mini-Cold War"[114]
In September 2016, when asked if he thought the world had entered a new cold war, Russian Foreign Minister,Sergey Lavrov, argued that current tensions were not comparable to the Cold War. He noted the lack of an ideological divide between the United States and Russia, saying that conflicts were no longerideologically bipolar.[115]
In August 2016, Daniel Larison ofThe American Conservative magazine wrote that tensions between Russia and the United States would not "constitute a 'new Cold War'" especially between democracy and authoritarianism, which Larison found more limited than and not as significant in 2010s as that of the Soviet-Union era.[116]Andrew Kuchins, an American political scientist andKremlinologist speaking in December 2016, believed the term was "unsuited to the present conflict" as it may be more dangerous than the Cold War.[117]
In October 2016,John Sawers, a formerMI6 chief, said he thought the world was entering an era that was possibly "more dangerous" than the Cold War, as "we do not have that focus on a strategic relationship between Moscow and Washington".[118] Similarly,Igor Zevelev, a fellow at theWilson Center, said that "it's not a Cold War [but] a much more dangerous and unpredictable situation".[119]CNN opined: "It's not a new Cold War. It's not even a deep chill. It's an outright conflict", due to "competing military operations in Syria, disputes over Eastern European independence and escalating cyber breaches".[119]
In January 2017, former US government adviser Molly K. McKew said that "Putin and his minions have spent the past 15 years ranting about how the West (specifically NATO) wants a new Cold War". She suggested that "fighting a new Cold War would be in America's interest", adding "We won the last Cold War. We will win the next one too".[120]The New Republic editor Jeet Heer criticised McKew's suggestion as "troubling" and for "wildly overstating the extent of Russian ambitions and power". Heer said that unlike the old Cold War, "Current U.S. troubles with Russia aren't the result of ideological differences [...] and are intensely localized along Russia's borders, in countries like the Ukraine and Georgia".[121]Jeremy Shapiro, a senior fellow in theBrookings Institution, wrote in his blog post atRealClearPolitics, referring to the US–Russia relations: "A drift into a new Cold War has seemed the inevitable result" of "Russian-Western confrontation" over Eastern European counties such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.[122]
In August 2017, Russian Deputy Foreign MinisterSergei Ryabkov denied claims that the US and Russia were having another cold war, despite ongoing tensions between the two countries over Ukraine and Syria, and newer US sanctions against Russia.[123] AUniversity of East Anglia graduate student Oliver Steward[124] and theCasimir Pulaski Foundation senior fellow Stanisław Koziej[125] attributed the Russia'sZapad 2017 exercise in Belarus as part of the new Cold War between Russia and the West.
In March 2018, Russian PresidentVladimir Putin told journalistMegyn Kelly in an interview: "My point of view is that the individuals that have said that a new Cold War has started are not analysts. They do propaganda."[126]Michael Kofman, a seniorResearch Scientist at theCNA Corporation and a fellow at theWilson Center'sKennan Institute said that the causes and character of the new conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine and Georgia are different from the Cold War. He said the Cold War "was a battle for global dominance between two universalist ideologies" while this new conflict for Russia "is about its survival as a power in the international order, and also about holding on to the remnants of the Russian empire". Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at theUS Naval War College said that the situations in Georgia and Ukraine "seemed to offer the requisite storyline for new Cold War" between Russia and the West.[127] Also in March 2018, Harvard University professorsStephen Walt[103] and thenOdd Arne Westad[128] criticised the application of the term to increasing tensions between Russia and the West as "misleading",[103] "distract[ing]",[103] and too simplistic to describe the more complicated contemporary international politics.
In October 2018, Russian military analystPavel Felgenhauer toldDeutsche Welle that "we have a new Cold War, so the treaties that ended the previous one are irrelevant because they correspond to a totally different world situation", referring to theIntermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and others.[129] In February 2019, Sergey Lavrov stated that the withdrawal from the INF Treaty would not lead to "a new Cold War".[130][131][132][133]
Russian news agencyTASS reported the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying "I don't think that we should talk about a new Cold War", adding that the US development of low-yield nuclear warheads (the first of which entered production in January 2019)[134] had increased the potential for the use of nuclear weapons.[130]
Speaking to the press inBerlin on 8 November 2019, a day before the 30th anniversary of thefall of the Berlin Wall, US Secretary of StateMike Pompeo warned of the dangers posed to the West by Russia and China. He said "Today, Russia - led by a formerKGB officer once stationed inDresden [Vladimir Putin] - invades its neighbours and slays political opponents". Jonathan Marcus of theBBC opined that Pompeo "appeared to be declaring the outbreak of a second [Cold War]".[135]
In 2013,Michael Klare compared inRealClearPolitics tensions between Russia and the West to the ongoingproxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.[136] Oxford ProfessorPhilip N. Howard argued that a new cold war was being fought via the media,information warfare, andcyberwar.[8]
Some observers, including Syrian PresidentBashar al-Assad,[137] judged theSyrian civil war to be a proxy war between Russia and the United States,[138][139] and even a "proto-world war".[140] In January 2016, senior UK government officials were reported to have registered their growing fears that "a new cold war" was now unfolding in Europe: "It really is a new Cold War out there. Right across the EU we are seeing alarming evidence of Russian efforts to unpick the fabric of European unity on a whole range of vital strategic issues".[141]
In April 2018, relations deteriorated over a potential US-led military strike in Middle East after theDouma chemical attack in Syria, which was attributed to theSyrian Army by rebel forces inDouma, andpoisoning of the Skripals in the UK. TheSecretary-General of the United Nations,António Guterres, told a meeting of the UN Security Council that "the Cold War was back with a vengeance". He suggested the dangers were even greater, as the safeguards that existed to manage such a crisis "no longer seem to be present".[142]Dmitri Trenin supported Guterres' statement, but added that it began in 2014 and had been intensifying since, resulting inUS-led strikes on the Syrian government on 13 April 2018.[143]
In February 2022, journalistMarwan Bishara held the US and Russia responsible for pursuing "their own narrow interests", including then-US President Trump'srecognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel as well as Putin'sRussian invasion of Ukraine, and for "pav[ing] the way for, well, another Cold War".[144]
On 24 February 2022, Russia launched afull-scale invasion of Ukraine, occupying large parts of the country and declaring it had annexed southeastern Ukraine in September that year.[145][146][147] Soon after, journalistH. D. S. Greenway cited the Russian invasion of Ukraine and 4 February joint statement betweenRussia and China (under Putin and Xi Jinping) as one of the signs that Cold War II had officially begun.[148] Jaro Bilocerkowycz, Associate Professor of Political Science at theUniversity of Dayton, wrote that the invasion of Ukraine could be the start of a "new Cold War", placing Ukraine "at the center of a geopolitical struggle reminiscent of the Cold War days when Germany and its capital city Berlin were split in two".[149] created a new cold war
In March 2022, Harvard historianFredrik Logevall asserted that the conflict over Ukraine was "fundamentally different from the Cold War" because it did not have the "massive arms race and a general absence of diplomacy, and a deep ideological schism". Yale historian Arne Westad agreed and said thatPutin's statements about Ukraine resembled late 19th and early 20th century colonial andimperial ideas, rather than those of the Cold War.[150]
In June 2022, journalistGideon Rachman asserted the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the start of a second Cold War.[151]
Responding to US plans to deploy long-range missiles in Germany, Putin said in July 2024 that the situation was reminiscent of the Cold War. Russian and US diplomats said their diplomatic relations were worse than during the 1962Cuban Missile Crisis.[152] Kremlin spokespersonDmitry Peskov told a reporter of a Russian state-run television network, "We are taking steady steps towards the Cold War ... All the attributes of the Cold War with the direct confrontation are returning."[153]
Polish retired general and defense analystStanisław Koziej wrote in 2024 that "A second cold war against the West is intensifying in Europe. Russia launched it by annexing Crimea in 2014 and following up with a full-scale armed invasion of Ukraine". He said that "this cold war is similar to the first one" but differs in that "it employs a bigger toolbox of activities that are often referred to as'hybrid' or in the gray zone". Koziej highlighted recentRussian hybrid warfare operations against eastern NATO states, includingsabotage,cyberattacks,airspace violations, espionage,weaponized migration,disinformation operations andnuclear blackmail.[154]
Sabine Siebold, Senior European Security correspondent forReuters, also cited Russian hybrid warfare and NATO troop build-ups as evidence that there was a "new Cold War" between Russia and NATO. She added, "in some ways, it even feels hotter than the Cold War in the 80s. This time we have a war raging on European territory involving Russian forces and Western weapons and many arms control treaties that were in place in the 80s have collapsed in the meantime".[155] In October 2025, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswomanMaria Zakharova said there was no cold war with NATO because it had already developed into a "firey" conflict, and accused NATO of lying about Russian sabotage to justify vast military spending.[156]
An academic Barry Buzan wrote in theInternational Politics journal article that, similar to the firstCold War, the Second Cold War is deterred from turning into a "hot" war betweensuperpowers due tomutual assured destruction andnuclear deterrence withnuclear weapons.[157] Buzan further determined thatproxy wars and half-proxy wars are found both in the first Cold War and the Second Cold War.[157]
Historian Hope N. Harrison said that the Cold War and the "new Cold War" between Russia and the West both have an ideological component. She noted that former US presidents had spoken of the Cold War as a conflict between democracy and tyranny, current Western leaders such as US presidentJoe Biden have called the war in Ukraine a "battle between democracy andautocracy". Putin, she says "finds the West decadent, devoid of morals and trying to impose itself on Ukraine, Russia and the rest of the world", adding that "Conservative parties around the world join him in criticising ‘liberal extremists’".[158] Likewise, historianAntony Beevor stated in October 2022 that "it is no longer [about] the old divide betweenleft and right" but rather "a change in the direction of autocracy versus democracy", a change made apparent by the Russian invasion of Ukraine; in his opinion, this cold war is "much scarier" than the first, as "one of the most worrying aspects" of the new cold war is a total disregard fordiplomatic agreements.[159]
Niall Ferguson said "Cold War II is different, because in Cold War II, China's the senior partner, and Russia's the junior partner",[160] and "in Cold War II, the first hot war breaks out in Europe, rather than Asia."[160]
Another difference in the Second Cold War is the higher economic "interdependence and centrality of network-based competition, particularly in infrastructure, finance, production, and digital networks", as stated in a September 2023 journal article ofGeopolitics.[1]
{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)The alternative is a new Cold War—one that renders all talk of global norms obsolete.
The United States (US), the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and Russia are now clearly headed toward a new phase in their relationship ... Some would thus argue that we are either facing or at risk of a new Cold War (Levgold 2014, Kashin 2014, Arbatov 2014).
Yet it is important to call things by their names, and the collapse in relations between Russia and the West does indeed deserve to be called a new Cold War.
Yet in 2014, Russia invaded, seizing Ukrainian territory and bringing Russia and the West to what many saw as a new Cold War.
... If the collapse of the USSR was sudden and largely bloodless, growing strains between its two largest successors would develop into limited fighting in the Donbas in 2014 and then into all-out warfare in 2022, causing death, destruction, and a refugee crisis on a scale not seen in Europe since the Second World War.
... However, the scale of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is unprecedented in modern history and, in terms of human costs, is Moscow's largest military intervention in the post-1945 period. ...
... . Russia had done the unthinkable, deliberately starting the biggest war in Europe since World War II. ...
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