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Robert Fogel | |
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| Born | (1926-07-01)July 1, 1926 New York City, U.S. |
| Died | June 11, 2013(2013-06-11) (aged 86) Oak Lawn, Illinois, U.S. |
| Academic background | |
| Education | Cornell University (BA) Columbia University (MA) Johns Hopkins University (PhD) |
| Doctoral advisor | Simon Kuznets |
| Other advisors | Evsey Domar Abba Lerner Fritz Machlup |
| Academic work | |
| Discipline | Economic history Cliometrics |
| School or tradition | Chicago School |
| Institutions | Johns Hopkins University University of Rochester University of Chicago Harvard University[1] |
| Awards | Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (1993) Bancroft Prize (1975) |
| Website | |
Robert William Fogel (/ˈfoʊɡəl/; July 1, 1926 – June 11, 2013) was an Americaneconomic historian and winner (withDouglass North) of the 1993Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. As of his death, he was the Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of American Institutions[2] and director of the Center for Population Economics (CPE)[3] at theUniversity of Chicago'sBooth School of Business. He is best known as an advocate of new economic history (cliometrics) – the use of quantitative methods in history.[4]
Fogel was born inNew York City, the son ofUkrainian Jewish immigrants fromOdessa (1922). His brother, six years his senior, was his main intellectual influence in his youth as he listened to him and his college friends intensely discuss social and economic issues of theGreat Depression.[5] He graduated from theStuyvesant High School in 1944.[6] Upon his graduation he found himself with a love for literature and history and aspired for a career in science, but due to an extreme pessimism about the economy in the second half of the 1940s, he shifted his interest towards economics.[5] He was educated atCornell University, where he majored in history with an economics minor, and became president of the campus branch ofAmerican Youth for Democracy, acommunist organization. After graduation in 1948, he became a professional organizer for theCommunist Party during which time he approved the expulsion of future fellow historians of slaveryEugene Genovese andGeorge Rawick.[7] After working eight years as a professional organizer, he rejectedcommunism as unscientific and attendedColumbia University, where he studied underGeorge Stigler and obtained an MA in economics in 1960. He received a PhD fromJohns Hopkins University in 1963.
He began his research career as an assistant professor at theUniversity of Rochester in 1960. In 1964 he moved to theUniversity of Chicago as an associate professor. From 1968 to 1975 he was also a visiting professor at Rochester in autumn semesters. During this time he completed some of his most important works, includingTime on the Cross (in collaboration withStanley Engerman). He also mentored a large group of students and researchers in economic history, including his colleagueDeirdre McCloskey at Chicago. In 1975 he left forHarvard University, and from 1978 on he worked as a research associate under theNational Bureau of Economic Research inCambridge, Massachusetts. In 1981 he returned to the University of Chicago, where he directed the newly created Center for Population Economics at theBooth School of Business.
Fogel researched and wrote on numerous fields in his career, including not only economic history but also demographics, physiology, sociology of the family, nutrition, China's economic development, philosophy of science, and other related fields. He integrated insights from such diverse fields in his attempts to explain important historical phenomena such as the dramatic fall in mortality rates from the 18th to the 20th century. His former colleague Deirdre McCloskey credits Fogel with "reuniting economics and history". He advised many students who went on to become prominent economic historians, so that many economic historians in the United States trace their academic lineage to him.
Fogel was elected to theAmerican Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1972,[8] theNational Academy of Sciences in 1973,[9] and theAmerican Philosophical Society in 2000.[10]
Fogel married Enid Cassandra Morgan, an African-American woman, in 1949 and had two children. The couple faced significant difficulties at the time due to anti-miscegenation laws and prevalent sentiments against interracial marriages.
He died on June 11, 2013, inOak Lawn, Illinois, of a short illness, aged 86.[11][12][13]
Fogel's first major study involving cliometrics wasRailroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History (1964). This tract sought to quantify the railroads' contribution to U.S. economic growth in the 19th century. Its argument and method were each rebuttals to a long line of non-numeric historical arguments that had ascribed much to expansionary effect to railroads without rigorous reference to economic data. Fogel argued against these previous historical arguments to show that onset of the railroad was not indispensable to the American economy. Examining the transportation of agricultural goods, Fogel compared the 1890 economy to a hypothetical 1890 economy in which transportation infrastructure was limited to wagons, canals, and natural waterways. Fogel pointed out that the absence of railroads would have substantially increased transportation costs from farms to primary markets, particularly in the Midwest, and changed the geographic location of agricultural production. Despite this consideration, the overall increase in transportation costs, i.e., the "social savings" attributable to railroads, was small – about 2.7% of 1890 GNP. The potential for substitute technologies, such as a more extensive canal system or improved roads, would have further lowered the importance of railroads. The conclusion that railroads were not indispensable to economic development made a controversial name for cliometrics.
Fogel's most famous and controversial work isTime on the Cross (1974), a quantitative study of Americanslavery, co-written withStanley Engerman. In the book, Fogel and Engerman argued that slavery was profitable for slave owners[14] aseconomies of scale meant larger slave farms were more productive, per unit of labor, than northern farms.[15] This contradicted the consensus at the time, set byUlrich Phillips but common among many different schools of history that as inancient Rome slavery was unprofitable compared to free labor and so would eventually die out on its own.
A portion ofTime on the Cross focused on how slave owners treated their slaves. Engerman and Fogel argued that because slave owners approached slave production as a business enterprise, there were some limits on the amount of exploitation and oppression they inflicted on the slaves. According to Engerman and Fogel, slaves in the American South lived better than did many industrial workers in the North. Fogel based this analysis largely on plantation records and claimed that slaves whipped only occasionally,[16] worked less and were better fed – although the authors were careful to state explicitly that slaves were still exploited in ways which were not captured by measures available from records. This portion ofTime on the Cross created a firestorm of controversy, although it was not directly related to the central argument of the book – that Southern slave plantations were profitable for the slave owners and would not have disappeared in the absence of the Civil War. Some criticisms mistakenly considered Fogel an apologist for slavery. In fact, Fogel objected to slavery on moral grounds; he thought that on purely economic grounds, slavery was not unprofitable.
In 1989 Fogel publishedWithout Consent or Contract The Rise and Fall of American Slavery as a response to criticism stemming from what some perceived as the cold and calculating conclusions found in his earlier work,Time on the Cross. In it he very clearly spells out a moral indictment of slavery when he references things such as the high infant mortality rate from overworked pregnant women, and the cruel slave hierarchies established by their masters. He does not write so much on what he had already established in his previous work, and instead focuses on how such an economically efficient system was threatened and ultimately abolished. Using the same measurement techniques he used in his previous work, he analyzed a mountain of evidence pertaining to the lives of slaves, but he focuses much more on the social aspects versus economics this time. He both illustrates how incredibly hard and life-threatening the work of a slave was, as well as how they were able to form their own culture as a resistance to slavery. His main point ultimately comes across, though, as he explains how a small group of very vocal and committed Evangelical Christian reformers led the fight against slavery until it became a political force that captured the attention of the President of the United States. His book delves deeply into why some of America's most widely respected leaders went from seeing slavery as a highly profitable workforce (which his findings indicate as true) to something that must be abolished on moral grounds.
In 2000 Fogel publishedTheFourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism in which he argued that America has been moving cyclically toward greater equality, largely because of the influence of religion, especiallyevangelicalism. Building on his work on the demise of slavery, he proposed that since evangelicalism was largely responsible for ending the institution he found to be economically profitable, that religion would continue to fuel America's moral development. Fogel diagrammed four "Great Awakenings", called (by others) "The Fogel Paradigm." "Fogel's paradigm is drawn from what he believes are cycles of ethical challenges America has undergone provoked by technological innovations that create moral crises that, in turn, are resolved by evangelical awakenings."[17]
Fogel was the director of the Center for Population Economics (CPE)[3] at theUniversity of Chicago and the principal investigator of theNIH-fundedEarly Indicators of Later Work Levels, Disease and Death project, which draws on observations from military pension records of over 35,000Union Army veterans.
Much of Fogel's late writing incorporated the concept of technophysio evolution, a process that he described as "thesynergism between rapid technological change and the improvement in humanphysiology."[18] By usingheight as a proxy for health and general well-being, Fogel observed dramatic improvements in health, body size, andmortality over the past 200 years. This phenomenon is examined more fully inThe Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700–2100: Europe, America, and the Third World andThe Changing Body: Health, Nutrition, and Human Development in the Western World since 1700 (both published by Cambridge University Press).
The work of Fogel was largely influenced by the McKeown thesis. Since 1955, the British public health scientistThomas McKeown had developed a theory that the growth of population since the 18th century can be attributed to a decline in mortality from infectious diseases, largely to a better standard of living, particularly to better nutrition, but later also to better hygiene, and only marginally and late to medicine.[19][20] The work of Fogel and collaborators provided the necessary evidence that more and better food was the main drive for the reduction in mortality from infectious diseases. As summarized by Noble laureateAngus Deaton (2013, pp. 91–92):[21]
Nutrition was clearly part of the story of early mortality decline. ... With the beginnings of the agricultural revolution, the [Malthusian] trap began to fall apart. Per capita incomes began to grow and, perhaps for the first time in history, there was the possibility of steadily improving nutrition. Better nutrition enabled people to grow bigger and stronger, which further enabled productivity to increase, setting up a positive synergy between improvements in incomes and improvements in health, each feeding off the other. When the bodies of children are deprived of the nutrients they need to grow, brain development is also unlikely to reach its full potential, so these larger, better-off people may also have been smarter, further adding to economic growth and speeding up the virtuous circle. Taller, bigger people lived longer, and better nourished children were less likely to die and better able to ward off disease.
— Angus Deaton, The Great Escape. Health, wealth, and the origins of inequality
In 1993, Robert Fogel received, jointly with fellow economic historianDouglass C. North, theNobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences "for having renewed research in economic history by applying economic theory and quantitative methods in order to explain economic and institutional change". In his Nobel lecture,[22] titled "Economic growth, population theory, and physiology: the bearing of long-term processes on the making of economic policy", he emphasises his work done on the question of nutrition and economic growth.
McKeown's views, updated to modern circumstances, are still important today in debates between those who think that health is primarily determined by medical discoveries and medical treatment and those who look to the background social conditions of life.
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