TheRedskins Rule is an observed longstanding coincidence between theNational Football League (NFL) game results of theWashington Redskins, now known as theWashington Commanders, and the results of subsequentUnited States presidential elections. Briefly stated, when Washington won its last home game prior to the presidential election, the party of the prior popular vote winning party won the presidency; when Washington lost, the opposition party won. This coincidence was noted by many sports and political commentators, and held true for the first eighteen elections after the franchise first moved to Washington in 1937. The rule was first broken in 2012 and has since held true only once.

TheWashington Commanders, formerly known as the Washington Redskins, are anAmerican football team belonging to theNational Football League (NFL). The rule, named the Redskins Rule, stated that if they won their lasthome game before the election, the incumbent party would win and that if they lost, the challenging party would win.^[1] The rule was first noticed prior to the2000 election by Steve Hirdt, executive vice president of theElias Sports Bureau.^[2][3][4] That year, the Redskins would begin what would become a four-game losing streak with retrospect to the rule when they lost to theTennessee Titans.George W. Bush defeatedAl Gore in theElectoral College, but lost the popular vote. This would cause problems for the original version of the rule after the 2004 election.^[4]

In the2004 election, the Redskins lost their last home game before the presidential election, indicating that theincumbent should have lost. However, President George W. Bush (the incumbent) went on to defeatJohn Kerry. Hirdt modified the rule by stating when the winner of the popular vote fails to win the election, the impact of the team's game on the subsequent election gets flipped.^[5]

This changed the rule to be based on the year’s electoral vote outcome and the prior popular vote outcome, as if Washington wins and the party that won the prior popular vote wins the year’s electoral vote, the rule would be upheld, as it would if both lost. In the election in 2000, Gore won the popular vote while Bush won the electoral vote, and thereby the revised Redskins Rule was upheld for the 2004 election. In the2008 election, the Redskins lost to thePittsburgh Steelers, predicting a win forU.S. Senator fromIllinoisBarack Obama over U.S. Senator fromArizonaJohn McCain, because Bush won the popular vote in the previous election.^[6]

Prior to the2012 election, the Redskins lost against theCarolina Panthers on November 4. The Redskins Rule predicted an outright loss for incumbent Barack Obama against challengerMitt Romney, or that Obama would win the popular vote but lose via the Electoral College.^[7] However, Obama won the election with 332electoral votes to Romney's 206,^[8] held the advantage in the popular vote by more than 4.7 million votes, and the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2012.

In 2016, the Redskins played their last designated home game prior to the election on October 16, defeating thePhiladelphia Eagles 27–20. This outcome predicted a victory forHillary Clinton of theDemocratic Party, which was in power. Clinton's loss toRepublican challengerDonald Trump in the election meant that the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2016 despite Clinton winning the popular vote.

Before the 2020 season, the Redskins retired their longtime name followingthe George Floyd protests, using the temporary name Washington Football Team for that season. They defeated theDallas Cowboys 25–3 in their last home game prior to the election, which because of the rule being inverted due to the popular vote winner losing the previous election, predicted a victory forJoe Biden of the Democratic Party, which ended up correct.

The franchise adopted the name "Commanders" starting from the 2022 season. Their 2024Hail Maryland victory against theChicago Bears suggested a victory forKamala Harris against Donald Trump in the2024 election, although this was incorrect.^[9]

The rule typically does not count the team's time playing in Boston (1932–1936). The team competed as the Boston Braves in 1932 when they won 19–6 over theStaten Island Stapletons. This game does not conform to the rule, asFranklin D. Roosevelt defeated incumbentHerbert Hoover in thatelection. However, in 1936, the first election year the team competed under its longtime nickname, they defeated theChicago Cardinals and the incumbent, Roosevelt, went on to win re-election.

• Curse of Tippecanoe
• Mierscheid law

• Washington Commanders
• United States presidential election predictions
• Politics and sports

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