 | |
Type of site | News aggregator, political commentary |
|---|---|
| Available in | English |
| Owner | RealClearInvestors and Crest Media |
| Created by | John McIntyre,Tom Bevan |
| Key people | Tom Bevan (Publisher) Carl M. Cannon (Executive Editor) |
| Employees | 70 |
| URL | realclearpolitics |
| Commercial | Yes |
| Registration | Optional |
| Launched | February 3, 2000 (2000-02-03)[1] |
| Current status | Online |
RealClearPolitics (RCP) is an Americanconservativepolitical news website andpolling data aggregator. It was founded in 2000 by formeroptions traderJohn McIntyre and formeradvertising agency account executiveTom Bevan.[2][3][4][5] It features selected political and public policy-related news stories andop-ed columns from various news publications, in addition to commentary and original content from its own contributors.[3][6]
RCP receives its highest amounts of traffic during peak election cycles and is known for its aggregation of polling data from left- and right-leaning sources.[7][8][9] RCP's polling average has been called the "Dow Jones of campaign coverage."[10][11]
The website was founded in 2000 by McIntyre, a formertrader at theChicago Board Options Exchange, and Bevan, a formeradvertising agencyaccount executive.[4] McIntyre explained "it really wasn't any more complicated than there should be a place online that pulled together all this quality information."[12] They call what they do "intelligent aggregation".[13] The site has grown in election-season spurts since it first went online. It has expanded from a two-man operation[14] to a full-time staff of more than 70 employees[15] overseeing the company's mainstay, RealClearPolitics, as well as 14 smaller sites.[16]
Both co-founders graduated fromPrinceton in 1991. When they launched the site, they would both start their day at 4 a.m., looking through articles from more than fifty sources. They post pieces on current events and topics, as well as news about opinion polls. The site reports on political races and projections, and features the average result of all current presidential polls and also offers a best-guess projection ofElectoral College votes.[4]
RealClearPolitics, often referred to as nonpartisan by sources likeThe Wall Street Journal andThe New York Times, emerged as a significant platform during the2008 elections.[17][18][19] Its founders, aiming to provide ideological diversity, curated political stories, op-eds, news analyses, and editorials to offer readers a balanced view of the political landscape.[20][21] The site's utility was recognized by figures such asPolitico's executive editor Jim VandeHei, who called it an essential resource for political enthusiasts.[22] TheChicago Sun-Times in 2012 also acknowledged the site's balanced selection of stories, and BuzzFeed’s top editor praised its polling average as highly reliable.[23]
The site has shown a conservative inclination in its content and commentary, as noted by various sources over the years.[24] In early interviews and articles, founders McIntyre and Bevan openly discussed their criticism of what they perceived as mainstream media biases. A 2001Princeton Alumni Weekly article highlighted their political leanings,[6] and a 2004Time article described the site's commentary section as "right-leaning."[25] By 2009, some academic texts have described it as run by conservatives while providing a range of opinion pieces. This blend of nonpartisanship and conservative tendencies has shaped its reputation and influence in political discourse.[26][27]
In November 2020,The New York Times published an article alleging that since 2017, when many of its "straight-news" reporting journalists were laid off, RealClearPolitics showed a pro-Trump turn with donations to its affiliated nonprofit increasing from entities supported by wealthy conservatives.[28] RCP executive editor Carl Cannon disputed the newspaper's allegations of a rightward turn, saying that he had solicited donations from both conservative and liberal donors, without them "buying coverage".[29] Several journalists who talked toThe New York Times in 2020 said they never felt any pressure from the site's founders to bias their stories.[28] Cannon stated that RCP regularly publishes perspectives from both liberal and conservative publications, saying that "the simple fact is that the amount of liberal material published in RCP every week dwarfs the annual conservative content inThe New York Times".[29] However, in 2016, the final RealClearPolitics national polling average before Election Day showed Hillary Clinton ahead by about 3 points (Clinton 46.8%, Trump 43.6%).[30]
The New York Times also said that "Real Clear became one of the most prominent platforms for elevating unverified and reckless stories about the president's political opponents, through a mix of its own content and articles from across conservative media..." and that for days after the election, "Real Clear Politics gave top billing to stories that reinforced the false narrative that the president could still somehow eke out a win."[28] Cannon responded by highlighting two articles suggesting that "Trump could somehow eke out a win" on RCP's front page by noting that 374 articles had been covered on its front page between the time of the election andThe New York Times' article, including 16 articles fromThe New York Times itself.[29]
In 2016, RealClearInvestigations was launched,[31] backed by foundations associated with conservative causes, such as the Ed Uihlein Family Foundation andSarah Scaife Foundation.[32] In 2019, the site published an article by a conservative author,Paul Sperry, containing the supposed name of a U.S. intelligence officer whoblew the whistle on theTrump–Ukraine scandal.[32] The article's publication came as part of a month-long effort by Trump allies on media and social media to "unmask" the whistleblower, whose identity was kept confidential by the U.S. government, in accordance with whistleblower protection (anti-retaliation) laws.[32] Most publications declined to reveal the whistleblower's identity; Tom Kuntz, editor of RealClearInvestigations, defended the site's decision to publish the article.[32] Cannon stated that whistleblower protections did not ensure anonymity from journalism, instead guaranteeing protection from firing, prosecution, and professional punishment.[29]
RealClearPolitics projected Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 U.S. presidential election with 272 electoral votes, defeating Donald Trump. Its aggregation of national polls showed Clinton consistently leading in the popular vote. However, Trump outperformed his polling in several key swing states—specifically, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all states that RCP had Clinton winning. Trump outperformed his polls, leading to his victory in the Electoral College. Clinton won the popular vote by over 2.8 million votes, but Trump secured the presidency with 306 electoral votes to Clinton's 227, marking a significant deviation from RCP's prediction.[33]
In the 2020 election, RealClearPolitics projected Joe Biden winning with 319 electoral votes. RCP expected Biden to capture key battleground states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which had flipped to Trump in 2016. RCP's final prediction closely aligned with the actual results, as Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232. The primary deviations from their forecast were that RCP had predicted Biden losing Georgia and winning Florida, neither of which occurred. Biden also won the popular vote by more than 7 million votes, with his performance largely matching polling projections in most states.[34]
RealClearPolitics projected Donald Trump to win with 287 electoral votes, capturing most key battleground states, with the exception of Michigan and Wisconsin. This prediction closely aligned with the actual results, though he ended up winning both aforementioned swing states.[35]
Forbes Media LLC bought a 51% equity interest in the site in 2007.[36] On May 19, 2015, RealClearInvestors and Crest Media announced that they had bought out Forbes's stake for an undisclosed amount.[37]
RealClearPolitics also owns RealClearMarkets, RealClearPolicy, RealClearWorld, and RealClearSports.[38] RealClearMarkets and RealClearSports were launched in November 2007. RealClearWorld, the international news and politics site, was launched in August 2008. RealClearScience and RealClearReligion launched in October 2010.[39] RealClearHistory launched in 2012. In 2013, RealClearDefense was launched to cover military, intelligence, and veterans' issues.[40]
In addition to linking to external content, RealClearPolitics also provides original commentary and reporting, with a staff that includes White House reporter Philip Wegmann,[41][42] White House and national political correspondentSusan Crabtree,[43][44] associate editor and columnist A.B. Stoddard,[45][46] and columnistJ. Peder Zane. Both Wegmann and Crabtree are former reporters for the conservativeWashington Examiner.
Former employees include Caitlin Huey-Burns,[47] Alexis Simendinger, James Arkin,[48] Mike Memoli, Kyle Trygstad, Reid Wilson, and Rebecca (Berg) Buck.
RealClearPolitics aggregates polls for presidential and congressional races into averages, known as the RealClearPolitics average, which are widely cited by media outlets. In 2008,Nate Silver ofFiveThirtyEight said that RealClearPolitics was rigging its averages to favor SenatorJohn McCain and other Republicans, although he later retreated from this claim, indicating that his site and RCP had a friendly rivalry.[49] McIntyre denied having a conservative bent, saying that the site was a business and had "no interest in screwing around with that for partisan purposes".[49]
In 2012, Ben Smith, editor-in-chief of BuzzFeed, said "They are a huge force. Their polling average is the Dow Jones of campaign coverage."[23]
Right beforeSuper Tuesday during the 2016 presidential primaries, Bevan called Super Tuesday for Donald Trump, tellingThe New York Times, "It will be a Trump tsunami" and predicting a Trump victory in every state holding a primary that day except for Texas.[50]
A November 2020 article inThe New York Times reported that some "political analysts" raised concerns about RealClearPolitics polling averages being influenced by polls skewing towards Trump, citing Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report in saying that RCP doesn't adhere to "best practices like person-to-person phone interviews.[28][51] Cannon responded by noting that RCP's polling average in the election was off by 1.47 points in favor of Democratic candidateJoe Biden across seven battleground states, compared to 4.87 points in favor of Biden for polling conducted byThe New York Times.[29]
In 2018, RealClear Media launched RealClear Opinion Research, a public opinion polling group.[52] The group has conducted public opinion polls aboutschool choice for theAmerican Federation for Children,[53] and the confirmation of JudgeAmy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court for theNational Catholic Register.[54]
RealClearPolitics.com scores points for its in-depth, right-leaning commentary section
