Concept critical to establishing democratic governments
Apeaceful transition ortransfer of power is a concept important todemocratic governments in which the leadership of a government peacefully hands over control of government to a newly elected leadership. This may be after elections or during the transition from a different kind of political regime, such as thepost-communist period after thefall of the Soviet Union.[1]
In scholarship examiningdemocratization and emerging democracies, study of the successful transitions of power is used to understand the transition toconstitutional democracy and the relative stability of that government.[2][3][4][5] A 2014 study concluded that 68 countries had never had a peaceful transition of power due to an election since 1788.[6][1]
A 2014 study byAdam Przeworski of 3,000 elections from 1788 to 2008, published in the journalComparative Political Studies concluded that 68 countries (including Russia and China) had never had a peaceful transition of power betweenparties following an election, making it a "rare and a recent practice."[6][1] The same study found that once a country has an initial peaceful transfer of power (an "alternation"), it is very likely to keep doing so, making the peaceful transition of power a habit-forming activity.[6][1] In a stable institutionalized democracy, a peaceful transition is the expected outcome of an election.[6][1]
Peaceful transitions require a number of strongdemocratic institutions and norms to exist, such as the willingness of opposition parties to serve as aloyal opposition. Transitions by election put power holders in vulnerable positions, as not only do they risk potential changes in policy and practice and thus their means of power, but they also risk political retribution or retaliation.[7]
The first peaceful transition of power in a country is often treated as an important stage in a government transition towards democracy such as seen inelections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.[8] Successful transitions during tense political moments such as theVelvet Revolution in Armenia in 2018 are interpreted as signs of improved governance within the country, an important milestone in democratization and functioning civil society.[9] Alternately, the lack of peaceful transfers of power, such as inelections in Georgia from 1995 to 2008 in which the only transition between presidents was via the 2003Rose Revolution, may harm the international reputation of the country as a "democracy".[10]
The first peaceful transition of power between civilians inNigeria took place in 2007, although the outgoing and incoming presidents were of the same party and the preceding election was characterized by widespread irregularities.[12] In 2018,Liberia had its first electoral transfer of power since 1944.[13] The first peaceful transition of power in theDemocratic Republic of the Congo took place in 2019, with outgoing presidentJoseph Kabila yielding power to opposition leaderFelix Tshisekedi.[14] The first transition of power from one democratically elected leader to another inNiger took place in 2021, following a long history ofcoups d'etat,[15] followed byanother military coup in 2023.[16]
The symbol of peaceful transition of power is when the outgoing president and/or vice president, after their respective successors recite theoath of office, switch chairs, so that the incumbent president is on the furthest left side of the altar at thePeople's Consultative Assembly main session's room, and the sitting vice president is immediately on the right side of the speaker and deputies speaker's desk. As of 2022[update], starting in 1978, the vice presidents always did this symbolic transfer when there was no vacancy in the office except in 2004, whenHamzah Haz did not attend the ceremony, and in 2009, whenJusuf Kalla was already seated on the furthest right side so no switch was needed. For presidents, as of 2025[update], this symbol of peaceful transition happened only three times, in 1999 during theinauguration of Abdurrahman Wahid, in 2014 for thefirst inauguration of Joko Widodo, and 2024 for theinauguration of Prabowo Subianto.
The transfer of power resulting from the2012 Georgian parliamentary election was considered an important case of peaceful transfer of power in the post-Soviet political development of Georgia, which, since the Soviet period, had earlier gone through changes such as theRose Revolution in 2003.[10]
A peaceful transition of power has been the norm inUnited States presidential transitions. Thetransition fromJohn Adams toThomas Jefferson in 1801 was considered an important milestone for the country's fledgling democracy, and was the first time the presidency was handed over to a political opponent. All elections except2020 have resulted in peaceful transitions of power where the losing party "willingly and peacefully" relinquished power to the opposition.[17][18] The transition is institutionalized through symbolic acts like thepresidential inaugurations.[19][20] Outgoing U.S. presidents traditionally attend the inaugurations of their successors, a symbol of the peaceful passage of power from one administration to the next.[21] This concept of "loser's consent" plays a vital role in maintaining democratic stability:[22] political parties in the U.S. have come to accept electoral defeat as part of the democratic process, reinforcing the idea that the legitimacy of the electoral system depends on the willingness of political actors to adhere to its outcomes.
In 2020, incumbent Republican PresidentDonald Trump publicly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he lost his reelection bid.[23] He was defeated in the 2020 election byJoe Biden in both the popular vote and theelectoral vote, but refused toaccept defeat. Trump falsely claimed election fraud, initiated aseven-part plan to overturn the election, and engaged in an aggressive and unprecedented[24][25]campaign to remain in power.[26] Trump's fellow Republicans hadvaried reactions to Trump's false election-fraud claims.[27][28][29][30] Trump's strong grip on the Republican Party led to a majority of the party supporting or refusing to actively oppose him.[31] Among those who stood firm against Trump's attempts to subvert the 2020 election results were Vice PresidentMike Pence, Georgia Secretary of StateBrad Raffensperger, and the courts. On 6 January 2021, a pro-Trump mob, inflamed by Trump's false claims,attacked the Capitol in Washington, D.C., in a failed attempt to keep Trump in power. The mob disrupted thecounting of the electoral votes by ajoint session of Congress for several hours.[32][33][34] Five people died either shortly before, during, or following the attack.[35] The following day, Trump condemned the attack and committed to the peaceful transition of power, but refused to mention Biden's name in his farewell address and did not attend Biden's inauguration.[36] After the power transfer, he has routinely repeated election lies and defended the riots.[37]
Debate continues as to whether the events of the 2020 election represent a temporary aberration or a deeper, more sustained threat to the democratic fabric of the nation. Some argue that the rise of political polarization, the spread of disinformation, and the increasing willingness of political actors to reject established norms could point to a more profound crisis of legitimacy;[38] others believe that the resilience of U.S. institutions in the face of these challenges demonstrates that the foundations of democracy, while tested, remain robust.[39] The aftermath of the2024 election saw a peaceful transfer of power between Biden and a returning Trump, resuming the hallmark of peaceful transitions between presidencies.[40]
InVenezuela in 1958, thePuntofijo Pact allowed a political agreement to respect the election results,[41] allowing for a peaceful transition of power after the ouster of dictatorMarcos Pérez Jiménez and during the country's democratic period.[42]
^O'Hanlon, Michael; Brigety, Reuben; Opalo, Ken (27 November 2018)."Power transitions in Africa".Brookings.Archived from the original on 11 September 2021. Retrieved10 August 2023.
^Kumar, Anita; Orr, Gabby (21 December 2020)."Inside Trump's pressure campaign to overturn the election".Politico.Archived from the original on 22 December 2020. Retrieved11 September 2021.Trump's efforts to cling to power are unprecedented in American history. While political parties have fought over the results of presidential elections before, no incumbent president has ever made such expansive and individualized pleas to the officials who oversee certification of the election results.
^Sanger, David E. (19 November 2020)."Trump's Attempts to Overturn the Election Are Unparalleled in U.S. History".The New York Times.Archived from the original on 20 November 2020. Retrieved11 September 2021.President Trump's attempts to overturn the 2020 election are unprecedented in American history and an even more audacious use of brute political force to gain the White House than when Congress gave Rutherford B. Hayes the presidency during Reconstruction.
^Khavin, Dmitriy; Willis, Haley; Hill, Evan; Reneau, Natalie; Jordan, Drew; Engelbrecht, Cora; Triebert, Christiaan; Cooper, Stella; Browne, Malachy; Botti, David (30 June 2021)."Day of Rage: An In-Depth Look at How a Mob Stormed the Capitol".The New York Times.Archived from the original on 21 September 2021. Retrieved11 September 2021.
^Corrales, Javier (1 January 2001). "Strong Societies, Weak Parties: Regime Change in Cuba and Venezuela in the 1950s and Today".Latin American Politics and Society.43 (2):81–113.doi:10.2307/3176972.JSTOR3176972.
^Márquez, Laureano; Eduardo, Sanabria (2018). "¡Por fin, democracia!".Historieta de Venezuela: De Macuro a Maduro (1st ed.). Gráficas Pedrazas. p. 95.ISBN978-1-7328777-1-9.
