Duringdivinations, Paul's keepers would present him with two food-containing boxes decorated with the flags of the teams in an upcoming match. Whichever box Paul ate from first was considered his prediction for which team would win the match.
His keepers at theSea Life Centre inOberhausen, Germany, mainly tasked him with predicting the outcomes of international matches in which theGerman team was playing. Paul correctly chose the winning team in four of Germany's sixEuro 2008 matches, and all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup—including Germany's third place play-off win over Uruguay on 10 July. He also correctly chose Spain as the winner of the2010 FIFA World Cup final.[2] In all, Paul amassed an overall record of 12 correct predictions out of 14: a success rate of approximately 85.7%.
Paul was hatched from an egg at the Sea Life Centre inWeymouth, England, and was then moved to a tank at one of the chain's centres atOberhausen in Germany.[3] Paul's name derived from the title of a poem by the German children's writerBoy Lornsen:DerTintenfisch Paul Oktopus.[4]
According to Sea Life's entertainment director, Daniel Fey, Paul demonstrated intelligence early in life:"There was something about the way he looked at our visitors when they came close to the tank. It was so unusual, so we tried to find out what his special talents were."[5]
The animal rights organisationPETA commented that octopuses are some of the most intelligent of invertebrates, with complex thought processes, long- and short-term memories, and different personalities. They can use tools, learn through observation, and are particularly sensitive to pain, according to the group. They said it would be cruel to keep Paul in permanent confinement. Sea Life Centres responded that it would be dangerous to release him, because he was born in captivity, and was not accustomed to finding food for himself.[6]
Following Paul's rise to fame, businessmen in Carballiño, a community inGalicia, collected about €30,000 for a "transfer fee" to get Paul as main attraction of the localFiesta del Pulpo festival.[7] Manuel Pazo, a fisherman and head of the local business club assured people that Paul would be presented alive in a tank and not on the menu. Sea Life rejected the offer nevertheless.[8]
Paul was last checked by staff on 25 October 2010, and was in good health, but the following morning he was found dead. He was aged two-and-a-half, a normal lifespan for the species. His agent, Chris Davies, said "It's a sad day. Paul was rather special but we managed to film Paul before he left this mortal earth". Sea Life Centre manager Stefan Porwoll remembered Paul as an octopus who had "enthused people across every continent".[9][10]
Paul choosing Spain over Germany for his 2010 semi-final prediction
Paul's career as an oracle began during theUEFA Euro 2008 tournament.[3][11] In the lead-up to Germany's international football matches, Paul was presented with two clear plastic boxes, each containing food: amussel or anoyster. Each container was marked with the flag of a team, one the flag of Germany, and the other the flag of Germany's opponent. The box which Paul opened first (and ate its contents) was deemed to be the predicted winner of the match.[12] There was no method for Paul to pick a draw, despite this being a possible outcome for group stage matches.
Professor Chris Budd, of theUniversity of Bath, and ProfessorDavid Spiegelhalter, ofCambridge University, both compared Paul's success to a run of luck whentossing a coin.[13] Under the hypothesis that Paul wasequally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of adraw, he had a 1 in 2 chance of predicting a single result and a 1 in 64 chance of predicting six in a row. This feat would be unlikely to happen by chance alone, but not hugely so. Spiegelhalter points out that there are "other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches"; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others, and only the successful animals will gain public attention after the fact.[13]
There was discussion as to whether differences in flags design could have influenced Paul[14][15][16] (despiteOctopus vulgaris being almost certainlycolour blind[17]), or whether he could have been choosing boxes based on differences in their smell.[18]
In UEFA Euro 2008, Paul predicted Germany to win all of their games, a correct prediction in 4 out of 6 cases. He failed to predict their defeats by Croatia in the group stage,[19] and by Spain in the championship's final.[3][a]
Projections by Paul the Octopus in the UEFA Euro 2008 tournament
Paul choosing Spain over Netherlands for the final match
Paul's accurate choices for the 2010 World Cup, broadcast live by German news channeln-tv, endowed him with celebrity status.[3] Paul predicted the winners of each of the seven2010 FIFA World Cup matches that the German team played — againstAustralia,Serbia,Ghana,England,Argentina,Spain[21] andUruguay — as well as the tournament'sNetherlands vs. Spain final. His prediction that Argentina would lose prompted Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou to post an octopus recipe on Facebook.[3]
There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive.
Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi-final, by choosing the food in the box marked with the Spanish flag. German supporters drew hope from his incorrect choice for the Germany versus Spain match in theUEFA Euro 2008 but were disappointed.[23] The prediction led to German fans calling for Paul to be eaten.[24][25] In response, the Spanish Prime MinisterJosé Luis Rodríguez Zapatero offered to send Paul official state protection, and the Industry MinisterMiguel Sebastian called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain.[26][27]
Paul's notoriety attracted criticism from thePresident of Iran,Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who accused him of being a symbol of Western decadence and decay.[28] Ahmadinejad went on to say that "Those who believe in this type of thing cannot be the leaders of the global nations that aspire, like Iran, to human perfection, basing themselves in the love of all sacred values."[29]
Doubts were expressed as to whether "Paul" was actually the same octopus in both 2008 and 2010.[30]
Projections by Paul the Octopus in the 2010 FIFA World Cup
Memorial to Paul at the Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen
Some other German oracles did not fare so well in the World Cup. The animals at the Chemnitz Zoo were wrong on all of Germany's group-stage games, with Leon theporcupine picking Australia, Petty thepygmy hippopotamus spurning Germany's apple-topped pile ofhay (instead of Serbia), and Anton thetamarin eating araisin representing Ghana.[35][36][failed verification]
Mani the parakeet of Singapore became famous for correctly predicting the results of all four quarter-final matches. Mani contradicted Paul by picking the Netherlands to win the final, resulting in some media outlets describing the game as an "octopus-versus-parakeet showdown".[37][38]
Rabio the Octopus who correctly predicted the results of all ofJapan’s group stage games at the2018 FIFA World Cup, was killed and sent to market, on 2 July 2018 by the Japanese fisherman who had caught it.[39]
In 2010, uTouchLabs developed aniPhoneapp called "Ask the Octopus".[40]
A 2010 Chinese thriller filmKill Octopus Paul depicts Paul's predictions as being part of an international match-fixing scheme.[41]
On 17 June 2014, during the2014 FIFA World Cup, Paul was featured in aGoogle "doodle". He was represented as being inHeaven, perched on a billowy bed of clouds and adorned with a halo; when animated, he appeared to vacillate in his predictions for the day's matches.[42] Paul was again featured on 13 July in the doodle for the2014 final. In that doodle, clicking on the clouds in the upper left brings up an image of Paul, similar to that in the earlier doodle, "cheering" on the final from Heaven.[43] He was also featured in the short film “A Visit from Mascot Verse” during the2022 FIFA World Cup.
^Published inDas alte Schwein lebt immer noch: Boy Lornsens Tierleben, Schneekluth (1985),ISBN978-3795109417. Republished in and eponymous with the anthologyDer Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus. Gedichte für neugierige Kinder, 2009, Manfred Boje VerlagISBN9783414821485
^Grieshaber, Kirsten (6 July 2010), "Tentacle trauma: Paul the octopus says Spain will sink Germany at World Cup",Associated Press Newswires,FactivaAPRS000020100706e676001l9
^Lydia M. Mäthger; Alexandra Barbosa; Simon Miner; Roger T. Hanlon (2006), "Color blindness and contrast perception in cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis) determined by a visual sensorimotor assay",Vision Research,46 (11):1746–1753,doi:10.1016/j.visres.2005.09.035,PMID16376404,S2CID16247757
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