At times, however, the college have elected candidates not consideredpapabile by most Vatican watchers. In recent years, these have includedAngelo Roncalli (John XXIII) in 1958,Albino Luciani (John Paul I) in August 1978, andKarol Wojtyła (John Paul II) in October 1978. From this is derived a famousproverb: "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal".
The list ofpapabili changes as cardinals age. For instance,Carlo Maria Martini was thought to bepapabile until he retired from hissee upon reaching 75 years of age in 2002.[3]
The termpapabile is at least as old as the fifteenth century, since it is found in theCatholicon Anglicum.[4]
InItalian, the wordpapabile is also used in non-ecclesiastical contexts, particularly asslang. This includes usage in reference toshort list candidates, i.e. those who, among the available candidates, are most likely to get elected or appointed to a specific position.[5]
Francesco Castiglioni (elected asPius VIII in1829) waspapabile at both the1823 conclave and at the1829 conclave.[6][7] During his lifetime,Pope Pius VII referred to Castiglioni as "Pope Pius VIII".[6][7] At the 1823 conclave, Cardinal Annibale della Genga (ultimately elected asPope Leo XII at this conclave) stated that Castiglioni would someday be "Pope Pius VIII". Castiglioni came close to being elected at said conclave, but lost support due to being identified as being close toErcole Consalvi, a moderate and Secretary of State of the late Pope Pius VII.[6][7] Consalvi later died during Leo XII's pontificate and Castiglioni, apapabile once more when Leo XII himself died, was subsequently elected pope at the 1829 conclave.[7] His election was facilitated in that of the otherpapabili,Bartolomeo Pacca was opposed by France whileEmmanuele de Gregorio failed to get the support of the majority of the other cardinals. Upon his election, Castiglioni indeed took the name of Pius VIII, given that his two immediate predecessors had previously called him by that name.
Gioacchino Pecci (elected asLeo XIII in1878).[8][unreliable source?] The majority of the cardinals who headed to Rome for this conclave had already decided to support Pecci who wasCamerlengo. Pecci was also perceived to be the opposite of the recently deceasedPius IX.[8]
Eugenio Pacelli (elected asPius XII in1939).[11] Prior to his death, PopePius XI strongly hinted that he favoured Pacelli as his successor.[11] During his finalconsistory on 15 December 1937, Pius XI strongly hinted to the cardinals that he expected Pacelli to be his successor, saying: "He is in your midst."[12][13] He had previously been quoted as saying: "When today the Pope dies, you'll get another one tomorrow, because the Church continues. It would be a much bigger tragedy, if Cardinal Pacelli dies, because there is only one. I pray every day, God may send another one into one of ourseminaries, but as of today, there is only one in this world."[14]
Giovanni Battista Montini (elected asPaul VI in1963). Montini had been discussed as apapabile candidate in the 1958 conclave despite not having been a cardinal at the time;Giuseppe Siri reacted with horror that a non-cardinal would even be considered. It was also rumoured some of the French cardinals voted in favor of Montini during that conclave.John XXIII had sent vague signals during his reign that he believed his friend Montini (whom he made a cardinal) would be his successor.[15]
Joseph Ratzinger (elected asBenedict XVI in2005).[16] On 2 January 2005,Time magazine quoted unnamed Vatican sources as saying that Ratzinger (thenserving as Prefect for theCongregation for the Doctrine of the Faith) was a front runner to succeedJohn Paul II should he die or become too ill to continue as pope. Upon the death of John Paul II, theFinancial Times gave the odds of Ratzinger becoming pope as 7–1, the lead position but close to his rivals on the liberal wing of the church. In April 2005, before his election as pope, he was identified as one of the 100 most influential people in the world byTime.[17] At theconclave, a sentiment was: "it was, if not Ratzinger, who? And as they came to know him, the question became, why not Ratzinger?"[18] On 19 April 2005, he was elected on the second day after four ballots.[18]
Jorge Mario Bergoglio (elected asFrancis in2013).[19][20][21] Bergoglio was apapabile at the2005 conclave[22][23] and was also considered a contender at the 2013 conclave[19][20][23] due to his being the reported "second-place finisher" at the 2005 conclave.[19][23] According toJohn L. Allen Jr., some of the participants in the 2005 conclave who were also participating in the 2013 conclave were "getting another bite at the apple".[23] Despite this, his election still came as a surprise because some of the commentators who considered himpapabile made the observation that there were "compelling reasons to believe that Bergoglio's window of opportunity to be pope has already closed"[23] and that "his 'moment' seems to be over".[19]
Robert Francis Prevost (elected asLeo XIV in2025).[24] Though considered a dark horse candidate, Prevost was a prominentpapabile forNorth America for the 2025 papal conclave.[citation needed] He is the first pontiff coming from North America and the first pope born in the United States.[25]
Being seen aspapabile is no guarantee of election, and is sometimes seen as a handicap. (Although the following candidates were widely discussed as candidates publicly, the actual vote results described below are frequently based on rumours and sourced, if at all, from off-the-record reports of individual cardinals.)
Rafael Merry del Val was a widely considered candidate in the1914 and1922 conclaves, which eventually electedBenedict XV andPius XI respectively, although he never garnered enough votes to be in serious contention.[11][26]
Giuseppe Siri was widely expected to be elected pope in the1958 and1963 conclaves, and continued to be a prime contender in both 1978 conclaves. On the first of these occasions,Angelo Roncalli, an unexpected choice, was elected and became Pope John XXIII.[27][28][29][30] Anunsubstantiated conspiracy theory popular amongsedevacantists claims that he was actually elected during the former conclave.
Giovanni Benelli,Archbishop of Florence and the leading liberal candidate, was widely expected to be elected pope in both theAugust andOctober 1978 conclaves; in fact, he was defeated in both (albeit narrowly, the second time). In August, a candidate few saw aspapabile, Albino Luciani, was elected, becomingJohn Paul I – with the support of Benelli himself. In October, another such candidate, Karol Wojtyła, was elected as John Paul II.[31][32]
Sergio Pignedoli, a towering figure in the church, was Paul VI's closest confidant and widely expected to succeed him. Following the death of Paul VI in 1978, Pignedoli was featured in numerous publications around the world, including on the covers ofTime andNewsweek, as a leading contender to be elected pope. In theAugust 1978 conclave, Pignedoli, the progressive candidate, received nearly half of the votes of the cardinal electors. His main opponent was the conservative cardinalGiuseppe Siri of Genova; however, since both were unable to obtain a majority, a compromise candidate emerged, and Albino Luciani was elected as Pope John Paul I. Thirty three days later, following the sudden death of John Paul I, a secondconclave convened in October 1978. Pignedoli was again the leading contender for the papacy, but ultimately Karol Wojtyła was elected as Pope John Paul II.[33]
Angelo Scola, Archbishop of Milan, was considered such a front-runner in the2013 conclave that theEpiscopal Conference of Italy had already pre-drafted a press release concerning his election. However, his ties to a corruption probe caused his perception by the fellow cardinals to decline drastically.[38]
Luis Antonio Tagle,Archbishop of Manila from 2011 to 2020, dubbed the "Asian Francis" and seen as the representative of the Catholic Church's progressive wing, was speculated in media reports to be a most likely successor to Francis. However, he failed to garner enough votes to become pope in the 2025 conclave. He was also apapabile in the 2013 papal conclave that elected Francis.[39][40]
Barnaba Chiaramonti (elected asPius VII in1800) was not consideredpapabile but emerged as an alternative candidate following months of deadlock. Chiaramonti was well-regarded among many of the cardinals, but tried to dissuade them from electing him since he was content with being a bishop. CardinalJean-Sifrein Maury first proposed Chiaramonti as a compromise candidate to break the stalemate.[41]
Annibale della Genga (elected asLeo XII in1823) was not consideredpapabile due to his physical infirmities and the cardinal himself at the conclave tried to discourage the other electors from voting for him. However, he was elected because the conclave received information about secret societies who were perceived to have grown in strength during thesede vacante period, and some cardinals wanted a quick conclusion to the conclave; his physical condition made some cardinals think that his pontificate would not last long.[6]
Bartolomeo Cappellari's (elected asGregory XVI in1831) election was unexpected and had been influenced by the fact that the mostpapabile candidate,Giacomo Giustiniani, had been vetoed, therefore resulting in a deadlock.[42]
Giuseppe Sarto (elected asPius X in1903) emerged as an alternative candidate after the veto of Mariano Rampolla.
Achille Ratti (elected asPius XI in1922) was elected as a compromise candidate between the conservative faction headed byRafael Merry del Val and the moderate faction headed byPietro Gasparri. Gasparri also threw his support behind Ratti and urged his supporters to vote for Ratti.[26]
Angelo Roncalli (elected asJohn XXIII in1958). Some commentators like William Doino dispute the contention that Roncalli was a non-papabile and argue that "[b]y the time of Pius XII's death, in 1958, Cardinal Roncalli 'contrary to the idea he came out of nowhere to become pope' was actually one of those favored to be elected. He was well-known, well-liked, and trusted."[43]
Albino Luciani (elected asJohn Paul I in1978). Although Luciani was not consideredpapabile, one of thepapabile cardinals,Giovanni Benelli, used his influence to persuade the others to elect Luciani at the conclave.[44][45]
Karol Wojtyła (elected asJohn Paul II in1978) was elected as a compromise candidate due to the failure of the leadingpapabiliGiuseppe Siri andGiovanni Benelli to obtain the requisite majority and the only other viable Italian compromise candidateGiovanni Colombo announced to the cardinal-electors at the conclave that he would decline the papacy if elected.[46] Prior to Wojtyła, no non-Italian had been elected Pope since the 1522 conclave that chose the DutchPope Adrian VI.
^Papal historian Valérie Pirie disagreed with the conclusion that Rampolla would have won but for the veto of the Austro-Hungarian Emperor. Pirie claims that Rampolla would never have prevailed in the conclave and all that the veto accomplished was to make him appear a sympathetic figure as a victim of Austrian hostility.[8]
^Lorenzo Cappelletti (August 2006)."Lay that is Christian".30 Days in the Church and the World.Archived from the original on 3 February 2014. Retrieved31 January 2014.
^"Medius vestrum stetit quem vos nescetis. Everybody knew what the pope meant". Domenico Cardinale Tardini, Pio XII, Tipografia Poliglotta Vaticana, 1960, p. 105(in Italian)
^Lehnert, Pascalina (1986).Ich durfte Ihm Dienen: Erinnerungen an Papst Pius XII (in German). Würzburg: Naumann. p. 57.ISBN3885670410.
^Lehnert, Pascalina (1986).Ich durfte Ihm Dienen: Erinnerungen an Papst Pius XII (in German). Würzburg: Naumann. p. 49.ISBN3885670410.
^Allen Jr., John L. (14 April 2005)."Handicapping the conclave".National Catholic Reporter.Archived from the original on 6 August 2012. Retrieved15 March 2013.
^Thomas Reese, S.J. (1998).Inside the Vatican: The Politics and Organization of the Catholic Church. Harvard University Press. pp. 91 & 99.ISBN978-0-674-93261-6.
