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Opinion polling for the 2004 Canadian federal election

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Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
1997
Opinion polls
2000
Opinion polls
2004
Opinion polls
2006
Opinion polls
2008
Opinion polls

Polls leading up to the2004 Canadian federal election.

Graphical summary

[edit]
Voting intentions during the 2004 Canadian federal election campaign
  Liberal Party of Canada
  Conservative Party of Canada
  NDP
  Bloc québécois
  Green Party of Canada

National polls

[edit]
Evolution of voting intentions at national level
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPBQGPCPolling firmSampleMESource
Voting results36.729.615.712.44.3
June 24, 2004333217135Léger2,407± 2.0PDF
June 24, 2004343020124SES600± 4.1PDF
June 24, 200432.631.819.011.24.9Ekos4,159± 1.4PDF
June 23, 2004323117126Ipsos2,000± 2.2HTML
June 23, 2004343315135Compass800PDF
June 23, 2004343021123SES600± 4.1PDF
June 22, 2004343121123SES600± 4.1PDF
June 22, 2004333318115Environics1,444± 2.5PDF
June 21, 2004343121104SES600± 4.1PDF
June 20, 2004342816136Ipsos1,000± 3.1HTML
June 20, 2004333318125SES600± 4.1PDF
June 18, 2004342922105Nanos
June 17, 2004293216127Ipsos1,000± 3.1HTML
June 16, 2004323221124SES600± 4.1PDF
June 16, 2004323419123Nanos
June 16, 2004343516124Léger612± 3.3PDF
June 16, 2004353417113Compas600± 4.0PDF
Leaders Debate in English (June 15, 2004)
Leaders Debate in French (June 14, 2004)
June 13, 2004313217126Ipsos1,000± 3.1HTML
June 13, 2004333418115SES600± 4.1PDF
June 10, 2004333418115SES600± 4.1PDF
June 9, 2004323717105SES600± 4.1PDF
June 9, 200430341912Ekos2,117± 2.1PDF
June 8, 2004333715105SES600± 4.1PDF
June 8, 2004323116117Ipsos2,003± 2.2HTML
June 7, 2004313516116SES600± 4.1PDF
June 7, 2004333019125Léger1,500± 2.5PDF
June 7, 2004323420114Nanos
June 3, 2004323117116Ipsos1,000± 3.1HTML
June 3, 200437341793SES600± 4.1PDF
June 2, 200435321994SES600± 4.1PDF
June 1, 2004372919115SES600± 4.1PDF
May 31, 2004353017125Léger2,411± 1.8PDF
May 31, 2004362522135SES600± 4.1PDF
May 30, 2004362620135SES600± 4.1PDF
May 30, 2004343016116Ipsos1,000± 3.1HTML
May 29, 2004343119123SES600± 4.1PDF
May 27, 200438301811Ekos1,306± 2.7PDF
May 27, 2004403116103SES600± 4.1PDF
May 26, 2004422917102SES600± 4.1PDF
May 25, 2004412818113SES600± 4.1PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)

During the 37th Parliament of Canada

[edit]

After the creation of the Conservative Party

[edit]
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPBQGPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
Dissolution of the 37th Parliament of Canada (May 23, 2004)
May 13, 2004402515Ipsos2,000± 2.2[1]
May 6, 20043826165Ipsos1,000± 3.1HTML
April 28, 2004402318115Ipsos946± 3.2HTML
April 24, 2004382617125Leger1,136± 2.5PDF
April 18, 2004392919112Environics1,940± 2.2HTML
April 8, 2004352818105Ipsos1,000± 3.1HTML
March 25, 2004382715105Ipsos1,000± 3.1HTML
March 22, 200438261613Leger1,500± 2.5PDF
Stephen Harper becomes leader of the Conservative Party of Canada (March 20, 2004)
March 7, 20043826171242Ipsos2,111PDF
February 25, 200442321592Ekos1,200± 3.1HTML
February 12, 20043924181053Ipsos944± 3.1PDF
January 29, 20044823151130SES1,000± 3.1PDF
January 27, 200449211511Leger1,115± 2.5PDF
January 15, 20044819161044Ipsos1,055± 3.1PDF
December 29, 200351241582Environics1,936± 2.212
Paul Martin becomes Prime Minister of Canada (December 12, 2003)
Creation of the Conservative Party of Canada (7/12/2003)

Before the creation of the Conservative Party

[edit]
Last day
of survey
LPCNDPBQGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
November 27, 200343159510144Ipsos1,057± 3.1PDF
November 9, 200349121012161SES1,000± 3.1PDF
October 23, 200346118411154IpsosPDF
September 2, 20034615813190SES1,000± 3.1PDF
June 9, 2003541051117Ekos1,501± 2.5PDF
June 6, 2003441481616Environics1,926± 2.2HTML
June 5, 20034511951415Ipsos1,006± 3.1HTML
Peter MacKay becomes leader of the Progressive Conservative Party (May 31, 2003)
May 25, 2003551081214Leger1,181± 2.5PDF
May 23, 2003521071218SES1,000± 3.1PDF
April 17, 20035010941413Ipsos1,009PDF
March 27, 20034414916152Environics1,943± 2.3HTML
February 20, 200347.317.27.610.714.1Ekos1,006± 3.1PDF
February 11, 2003481471316SES1,000± 3.1PDF
Jack Layton becomes leader of the NDP (January 25, 2003)
January 16, 2003521471114Ekos1,001± 3.1PDF
January 14, 20034315917151Environics3,879± 1.6HTML
December 12, 200241128616170Ipsos1,000± 3.1PDF
December 4, 2002471181614Ekos1,205± 2.8PDF
November 3, 2002491371216SES1,000± 3.1PDF
September 30, 200244139415151Ipsos1,000± 3.1PDF
July 14, 20024113816184Ipsos971± 3.2PDF
July 2, 2002461281812SES1,000± 3.1PDF
June 18, 2002461471714Ipsos1,000± 3.1PDF
June 20, 20024314101710Ipsos2,000± 2.2PDF
June 9, 2002419101815Leger1,500± 2.5PDF
June 6, 2002501181713Ekos1,225± 2.8HTML
May 30, 20024313101815Ipsos2,000± 2.2HTML
May 29, 2002461381713Ekos1,217± 2.8PDF
April 24, 2002491061916SES1,000± 3.1PDF
March 28, 20024510101515Ipsos1,000± 3.1HTML
March 24, 20024410913168Leger1,503± 2.6PDF
February 21, 200247101012165Ipsos1,000± 3.1PDF
December 12, 2001541071116Ekos1,200± 2.8
July 29, 200152981018Ekos3,004± 1.8PDF
July 23, 2001499911203Ipsos1,000± 3.2PDF
July 13, 200148991016Leger1,508± 2.6PDF
June 10, 20014611813202Environics1,970± 2.3HTML
June 8, 20014891010212Ipsos1,000± 3.1PDF
May 31, 2001509101116Leger1,504± 2.6[2]
May 30, 200155759195Gallup1,017± 3.1[3]
May 27, 200150101011173Ipsos1,000± 3.1PDF
April 26, 20014911913153Ipsos1,000± 3.1PDF
April 24, 20014310919152Environics1,966± 2.2HTML
March 29, 2001487919152Ipsos1,003± 3.1PDF
March 10, 2001441119145Ipsos803± 3.5HTML
January 31, 200149872113Ekos1,491HTML
January 15, 20014510823113Environics2,114± 2.2HTML
November 27, 200040.858.5110.720.8125.4912.191.43

Regional polls

[edit]

Atlantic Canada

[edit]
Evolution of voting intentions in the provinces of Atlantic
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
Voting result[4]43.830.022.63.00.5
June 24, 20044524254Nanos
June 24, 200439332800EkosPDF
June 23, 200444232670Ipsos154PDF
June 20, 200437411525Ipsos77PDF
June 9, 200443282540EkosPDF
June 7, 20044229226LégerPDF
May 31, 200441302162LégerPDF
May 30, 20044130262SES87± 11.0PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
May 20, 200450212413Ipsos60PDF
April 25, 20044634191SES100± 10.0PDF
March 22, 20043639186LégerPDF
April 17, 2003532105220Ipsos100PDF
February 20, 200355155232EkosPDF
January 16, 200359113262EkosPDF
January 14, 200349147281Environics467± 4.6HTML
December 12, 2002461405340Ipsos79PDF
July 18, 200253126272Ipsos90PDF
June 20, 200250159251Ipsos182PDF
June 9, 200255115227Léger100PDF
May 30, 200253139250Ipsos167PDF
April 2002372212235Léger100PDF
March 28, 200249154311Ipsos90PDF
February 21, 20025772286Ipsos92PDF
August 29, 200154122311EkosPDF
August 13, 200150195234LégerPDF
July 10, 200151129271Environics236± 6.5HTML
May 27, 200161115230Ipsos93PDF
April 24, 2001461211291Environics234± 6.5HTML
April 200151136263Léger119PDF
March 29, 200159611240Ipsos89PDF

Central Canada

[edit]

Quebec

[edit]
During the election campaign
[edit]
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPBQGPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
Election33.98.84.648.93.23.8
June 24, 200428117513SES286± 5.9PDF
June 24, 200432115484[note 1]Leger1,101± 3.2PDF
June 24, 200428117513EkosPDF
June 23, 200429954853Ipsos460PDF
June 22, 2004251010504EnvironicsHTML
June 21, 20042613650CROP606± 4.0PDF
June 20, 200423895333Ipsos247HTML
June 17, 2004221394872Ipsos247PDF
June 16, 20043697462CompasPDF
June 16, 200430136483Leger874± 3.1PDF
June 16, 20043095525SES173± 7.6PDF
June 15, 200431157461Leger426± 4.4PDF
June 13, 2004281174851Ipsos222PDF
June 9, 200422138543EkosPDF
June 9, 20043214844CROP600± 4.0PDF
June 8, 20042498505IpsosHTML
June 7, 200431138462LegerPDF
June 6, 2004301510433SES178± 7.5PDF
June 3, 200428136454IpsosHTML
May 31, 20043389462Leger1,100± 1.8PDF
May 30, 20042944IpsosHTML
May 30, 200430135493SES196± 7.1PDF
May 27, 20043611645EkosPDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
In 2004 (before the election campaign)
[edit]
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPBQGPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
May 20, 20042878504Ipsos215PDF
May 20, 200434101542CROP854± 3.4PDF
May 19, 20044043Compass[5]
May 16, 200435107444Leger1,005± 3.0PDF
May 13, 200431101046IpsosPDF
May 6, 20043641IpsosHTML
April 28, 200433884651Ipsos224PDF
April 25, 200439101041CROP1,001± 3.0PDF
April 25, 20043598462SES218± 6.8PDF
April 24, 20043488463LegerPDF
April 18, 20043788452EnvironicsHTML
April 8, 20043011104522IpsosHTML
March 29, 20043511945CROP1,004± 3.0PDF
March 25, 200433864472Ipsos204PDF
March 22, 20043688453LegerPDF
March 7, 200431684942Ipsos476PDF
February 26, 200432910481CROP607± 4.0PDF
February 25, 20043844EkosHTML
February 22, 20043838CROPPDF
February 19, 2004301094435Ipsos225PDF
February 12, 200434711471CROPPDF
February 12, 200440583953Ipsos213PDF
January 27, 2004466739LegerPDF
January 24, 200451510331CROP1,000± 3.0PDF
January 18, 20044768363Leger1,000± 3.4PDF
January 15, 200445363943IpsosPDF
In 2003
[edit]
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPBQGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
December 17, 2003505935CROP986± 3.0PDF
November 27, 2003408385343Ipsos209PDF
November 25, 2003461038213LegerPDF[6]
November 23, 20035034CROP1,003PDF
October 23, 2003506314352Ipsos213PDF
September 29, 2003507355CROP1,002PDF
July 9, 20036520EkosPDF
July 6, 200349356Environics472± 4.5HTML
June 5, 200352533414Ipsos230PDF
May 25, 20036262813LegerPDF
April 17, 200350336524Ipsos233PDF
March 27, 200346838341Environics485± 4.5HTML
February 20, 200349935132EkosPDF
January 16, 200355531334Ekos243± 6.312
January 14, 2003411238341Environics967± 3.2HTML
In 2002
[edit]
Last day
of survey
LPCNDPBQGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
December 12, 20023912347250Ipsos213PDF
November 24, 200240440385Leger774± 3.4PDF
September 30, 20023811364181Ipsos250PDF
August 14, 2002381533752Ipsos199PDF
July 18, 2002461226573Ipsos222PDF
June 20, 2002391239351IpsosHTML
June 9, 2002376372711Leger400± 4.5PDF
May 30, 200238123938IpsosHTML
March 28, 20024753835IpsosHTML
March 24, 200246437247LegerPDF
February 21, 200246639171Ipsos215PDF
In 2001
[edit]
Last day
of survey
LPCNDPBQGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
December 12, 200146337177Leger1,000± 3.412
December 12, 200158331161Ekos[7]HTML
August 29, 200150533291Ekos± 3.7PDF
August 23, 200147537471Ipsos250PDF
August 13, 200145537374Leger401± 5.512
July 10, 200149433491Environics482± 4.6HTML
July 8, 2001434412100Ipsos212PDF
May 27, 2001442392112Ipsos230PDF
May 21, 2001453381103Leger99812
April 26, 200143736492Ipsos253PDF
April 24, 200141640563Environics485± 4.5HTML
March 29, 200145437492Ipsos253PDF
March 10, 20014632IpsosHTML
January 31, 20015230Ekos379± 5.1HTML
January 15, 200142735654Environics504± 4.5HTML
2000 Election44.21.839.90.66.75.61.2

Ontario

[edit]
Evolution of voting intentions in Ontario
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
Voting result44.731.518.14.41.3
June 24, 20043932254Nanos
June 24, 20043932254SES393± 5.0PDF
June 24, 200438352151EkosPDF
June 23, 200438342062Ipsos758PDF
June 22, 20044035195EnvironicsHTML
June 20, 200442302062Ipsos379PDF
June 16, 20043640232SES259± 6.2PDF
June 9, 20043438216EkosPDF
June 7, 20043536245LégerPDF
June 6, 20043343223SES254± 6.3PDF
May 31, 200439371851Léger± 3.5PDF
May 30, 20043932253SES237± 6.5PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
March 22, 20044728196LégerPDF
February 25, 20044736152EkosHTML
April 17, 2003589314151Ipsos282PDF
March 27, 2003501515182Environics544± 4.3HTML
February 20, 200352208192EkosPDF
January 16, 200360158171EkosPDF
January 14, 2003531414181EnvironicsHTML
December 12, 20025111611220Ipsos255PDF
May 30, 2002551115190Ipsos542PDF
August 29, 200162108202EkosPDF
August 23, 2001531111222Ipsos300PDF
August 13, 200158981511LégerPDF
July 10, 2001511311241Environics555± 4.2HTML
April 24, 200154819182Environics545± 4.3HTML
March 29, 200156818162Ipsos300PDF
Election 200051.58.30.923.614.41.3

Prairies

[edit]
Evolution of voting intentions in Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan)
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
Voting result[4]30.340.423.42.73.1
June 24, 20043934242SES137± 8.5PDF
June 24, 20043040264[note 1]LégerPDF
June 24, 200429373050EkosPDF
June 23, 200432362552Ipsos136PDF
June 20, 200433371776Ipsos68PDF
June 17, 200428362943Ipsos68PDF
June 16, 20043232306SES89± 10.6PDF
June 13, 200421561642Ipsos58PDF
June 9, 20043236283EkosPDF
June 7, 20043538216LégerPDF
June 6, 20043542204SES77± 11.4PDF
May 31, 200435342642LégerPDF
May 30, 20044135231SES79± 11.0PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
May 20, 200432402432Ipsos56PDF
April 25, 20043331334SES83± 11.0PDF
March 22, 20042540259LégerPDF
April 17, 20033827119131Ipsos100PDF
February 20, 2003472022100EkosPDF
January 16, 2003273123182EkosPDF
December 12, 20022822432140Ipsos80PDF
July 18, 2002331731163Ipsos85PDF
June 20, 2002371732140Ipsos200PDF
June 9, 2002261336187Léger125PDF
May 30, 2002272232163Ipsos164PDF
April 2002302819176Léger125PDF
March 28, 2002292229145Ipsos92PDF
February 21, 2002411918157Ipsos83PDF
August 29, 2001412118174EkosPDF
August 13, 2001411614254Léger108PDF
May 27, 2001402224123Ipsos83PDF
May 2001302019238Léger108PDF
March 29, 2001381830131Ipsos100PDF

Alberta

[edit]
Evolution of voting intentions in Alberta
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
Voting result22.061.79.56.10.7
June 24, 200423621320SES145± 8.3PDF
June 24, 200423581270EkosPDF
June 23, 200420591164Ipsos194PDF
June 22, 20042162134EnvironicsHTML
June 20, 2004254517111Ipsos97PDF
June 17, 200417591175Ipsos97PDF
June 16, 200432511450SES89± 10.6PDF
June 9, 20042557144EkosPDF
June 7, 20043052153LégerPDF
June 6, 200433511420SES88± 10.7PDF
May 31, 200428541242LégerPDF
May 30, 200431531150SES81± 11.0PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
April 28, 200431461562Ipsos91PDF
April 25, 200433571000SES77± 11.0PDF
April 24, 20042460142LégerPDF
March 22, 20042749177LégerPDF
February 12, 200428501633Ipsos92PDF
January 27, 2004405352LégerPDF
January 15, 200435471324IpsosPDF
November 27, 2003288630243Ipsos86PDF
October 23, 2003278134237Ipsos92PDF
July 6, 200328639261Environics203± 6.9HTML
June 5, 20032710434250Ipsos119PDF
April 17, 2003294439240Ipsos104PDF
March 27, 2003251240221Environics201± 7.1HTML
February 20, 200332832283EkosPDF
January 16, 200335726275EkosPDF
January 14, 200324945211Environics411± 4.9HTML
December 12, 2002247248191Ipsos89PDF
September 30, 2002239348160Ipsos100PDF
August 14, 200219942246Ipsos94PDF
July 18, 200219650251Ipsos90PDF
June 9, 200219655165Léger125PDF
May 30, 200228649161Ipsos177PDF
April 200231634209Léger125PDF
March 28, 200226945147Ipsos100PDF
February 21, 200231434274Ipsos100PDF
August 29, 200133726304EkosPDF
August 23, 200134828272Ipsos100PDF
August 13, 2001311020328LégerPDF
July 24, 200129730322Ipsos800± 3.5PDF
July 10, 200125837292Environics217± 6.8HTML
May 31, 200133729256Léger141PDF
May 27, 200128831293Ipsos100PDF
April 26, 200126439301Ipsos90PDF
April 24, 200124643241Environics212± 6.9HTML
April 19, 200127738244IpsosPDF
March 29, 200127340273Ipsos95PDF
January 15, 200130646144Environics221± 2.7PDF
Election 200020.95.40.558.913.50.8

British Columbia

[edit]
Evolution of voting intentions in British Columbia
Last day
of survey
LPCCPCNDPGPCCAPCOtherPolling firmSampleMESource
Voting result28.636.326.66.32.2
June 24, 200430342772EkosPDF
June 24, 20042838286SES192± 7.2PDF
June 23, 200425382682Ipsos800± 3.5PDF
June 23, 200424442282Ipsos264PDF
June 22, 20043134314EnvironicsHTML
June 20, 200432361886Ipsos132PDF
June 17, 200432341276Ipsos120PDF
June 16, 2004273525103[note 2]SES135± 8.7PDF
June 9, 20042941265EkosPDF
June 7, 200431312612LégerPDF
June 6, 20043137265SES118± 9.2PDF
May 31, 200429322891LégerPDF
May 30, 200434292980SES121± 9.1PDF
Official call of federal elections (May 23, 2004)
April 28, 2004302526910Ipsos109PDF
April 25, 200431303280SES117± 9.2PDF
April 24, 2004312329133LégerPDF
March 22, 200431372210LégerPDF
January 27, 200431372210LégerPDF
January 15, 200439262610IpsosPDF
November 27, 200332191320115Ipsos121PDF
October 23, 2003401482396Ipsos116PDF
April 17, 20034518101880Ipsos115PDF
March 27, 2003442022123Environics225± 6.7HTML
February 20, 200339281969EkosPDF
January 16, 200346231868EkosPDF
January 14, 2003322232122Environics445± 4.7HTML
December 12, 200231111331131Ipsos125PDF
July 18, 200234272586Ipsos129PDF
June 20, 2002282131146Ipsos267PDF
June 9, 20023011311711LégerPDF
May 30, 2002331833142Ipsos263PDF
April 20023213202014LégerPDF
August 29, 2001521119145EkosPDF
August 13, 2001437221315LégerPDF
July 10, 2001421522183Environics231± 6.6HTML
May 31, 2001498211012LégerPDF
April 24, 2001341632124Environics239± 6.5HTML
Election 200027.711.32.149.47.32.2

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abIncluding theGreen Party of Canada.
  2. ^Of which 3% for theBloc Québécois which only presents candidatesQuébec.

References

[edit]
  1. ^The Globe and Mail.Grits sto be crushed in Quebec poll suggests. May 15, 2004. page A4.
  2. ^Mackie, Richard (May 31, 2001). "Canadians split on PM's future".The Globe and Mail. p. A4.
  3. ^"Tory popularity rose as Alliance support dropped. new poll suggests".The Canadian Press. June 9, 2001.
  4. ^ab"Tableau 8 - Nombre de votes valides, par appartenance politique".www.elections.ca. RetrievedAugust 23, 2020.
  5. ^"Tories closing gap. poll shows Liberals may drop to minority government".Winnipeg Free Press. May 21, 2004. pp. A3.
  6. ^Brian Daly (December 7, 2003). "Two in three Canadians wanted Paul Martin to hold spring election: poll".The Canadian Press.
  7. ^Tim Harper (December 14, 2001). "Liberals ahead in every region".Toronto Star. pp. A7.

External links

[edit]
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_for_the_2004_Canadian_federal_election&oldid=1267719367"
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