 | A request that this article title be changed toIsrael and nuclear weaponsIsrael and nuclear weapons isunder discussion. Pleasedo not move this article until the discussion is closed. |
| State of Israel | |
|---|---|
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_with_occupied_territories.svg) | |
| Nuclear program start date | 1948 or 1949[1][2][3] |
| First nuclear weapon test | Reported partner in early French testing 1960,[1] reported local Israeli underground test 1963,[1] reported Israeli test inVela incident 1979[a] |
| Current stockpile | 90–400 warheads[b] |
| Maximum missile range | Up to 11,500 km[c] |
| NPT party | No |
| Nuclear weapons |
|---|
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| Background |
| Nuclear-armed states |
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Israel is widely believed to possessnuclear weapons. Estimates of Israel's stockpile range from 90 to 400 warheads,[20] and the country is believed to possess anuclear triad of delivery options: byF-15 andF-16 fighters,[d] byDolphin-class submarine-launched cruise missiles, and by theJericho series ofmedium tointercontinental range ballistic missiles.[e] Its first deliverable nuclear weapon is estimated to have been completed in late 1966 or early 1967, which would have made it the sixth ofnine nuclear-armed countries.[28]
Israel maintains apolicy of deliberate ambiguity, neither formally denying nor admitting to having nuclear weapons, instead repeating over the years that "Israel will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons to theMiddle East".[29][30][31] Israel interprets "introduce" to mean it will nottest or formally acknowledge its nuclear arsenal.Western governments, including the United States, similarly do not acknowledge the Israeli capacity.[35] Israeli officials, including prime ministers, have made statements that seemed to imply that Israel possesses nuclear weapons,[40] includingdiscussions of use in theGaza war.[41][42]
Israel has not signed theTreaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), despiteUnited Nations General Assembly pressure to do so.[43] It argues that nuclear controls cannot be implemented in isolation of other security issues and that only following the establishment of peaceful relations of all countries in the region could controls be introduced via negotiation of "a mutually and effectively verifiable regime that [would]establish the Middle East as azone free ofchemical,biological, and nuclear weapons, as well asballistic missiles."[44]
Israel subscribes to theBegin Doctrine ofcounter-proliferation, includingpreventive strikes, which seeks to prevent other regional actors from acquiring nuclear weapons. TheIsraeli Air Force conductedOperation Opera andOperation Orchard, which destroyed pre-criticalIraqi andSyrian nuclear reactors in 1981 and 2007, respectively. Israel had also extensively targetedIran's nuclear program, usingmalware,assassinations, and airstrikes during their2025 war. TheSamson Option refers to Israel's ability to use nuclear weapons against attackers as adeterrence strategy in the face ofexistential military threats to the nation.[45][46]
Israel began to investigate nuclear-related science soon after itdeclared independence in 1948, and, with French cooperation, secretly began building theNegev Nuclear Research Center,[f] a facility nearDimona housing anuclear reactor andreprocessing plant in the late 1950s. During theSix-Day War, Israel aborted a plan to demonstrate a nuclear weapon in theoccupied Sinai.[47] There is some evidence Israel increased its nuclear readiness during theYom Kippur War and theGulf War.[22][48] The 1979Vela incident is widely suspected to have been an Israeli nuclear test, in collaboration withSouth Africa.[49][50][51] The first extensive media coverage came via the 1986 revelations ofMordechai Vanunu, a former Dimona technician. Vanunu was soon kidnapped byMossad, brought back to Israel, and imprisoned for 18 years fortreason andespionage.[52][53] Israel is also suspected topossess offensive chemical and biological weapons.[54][55][56]
Israel's firstprime ministerDavid Ben-Gurion was "nearly obsessed" with obtaining nuclear weapons to prevent theHolocaust from reoccurring. He stated, "WhatEinstein,Oppenheimer, andTeller, the three of them are Jews,made for the United States, could also be done by scientists in Israel, for their own people."[57] Ben-Gurion decided to recruit Jewish scientists from abroad even before the end of the1948 Arab–Israeli War that established Israel's independence. He and others, such as head of theWeizmann Institute of Science and defense ministry scientistErnst David Bergmann, believed and hoped that Jewish scientists such as Oppenheimer and Teller would help Israel.[58]
In 1949 a unit of theIsrael Defense Forces Science Corps, known by theHebrew acronym HEMED GIMMEL, began a two-yeargeological survey of theNegev. While a preliminary study was initially prompted by rumors ofpetroleum fields, one objective of the longer two year survey was to find sources ofuranium; some small recoverable amounts were found inphosphate deposits.[24] That year Hemed Gimmel funded six Israeli physics graduate students to study overseas, including one to go to theUniversity of Chicago and study underEnrico Fermi, who had overseen the world's first artificial and self-sustainingnuclear chain reaction.[59] In early 1952 Hemed Gimmel was moved from the IDF to theMinistry of Defense and was reorganized as the Division of Research and Infrastructure (EMET). That June, Bergmann was appointed by Ben-Gurion to be the first chairman of theIsrael Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC).[60]
Hemed Gimmel was renamed Machon 4 during the transfer, and was used by Bergmann as the "chief laboratory" of the IAEC; by 1953, Machon 4, working with the Department of Isotope Research at theWeizmann Institute, developed the capability to extract uranium from the phosphate in the Negev and a new technique to produce indigenousheavy water.[24][61] The techniques were two years more advanced than American efforts.[58] Bergmann, who was interested in increasing nuclear cooperation with the French, sold both patents to theCommissariat à l'énergie atomique (CEA) for 60 million francs. Although they were never commercialized, it was a consequential step for futureFrench-Israeli cooperation.[62]
In addition, Israeli scientists probably helped construct the G-1 plutonium production reactor and UP-1 reprocessing plant atMarcoule. France and Israel had close relations in many areas. France was principal arms supplier for the new Jewish state, and as instability spread through French colonies in North Africa, Israel provided valuable intelligence obtained from contacts withSephardi Jews in those countries.[1] At the same time, Israeli scientists were also observingFrance's own nuclear program and were the only foreign scientists allowed to roam "at will" at the nuclear facility at Marcoule.[63] In addition to the relationships between Israeli and French Jewish and non-Jewish researchers, the French believed that cooperation with Israel could give them access to international Jewish nuclear scientists.[58]
AfterU.S. PresidentDwight Eisenhower announced theAtoms for Peace initiative, Israel became the second country to sign on (following Turkey), and signed a peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States on July 12, 1955.[64][58] This culminated in a public signing ceremony on March 20, 1957, to construct a "small swimming-pool research reactor inNachal Soreq", which would be used to shroud the construction of a much larger facility with the French atDimona.[65]
In 1986Francis Perrin,French high-commissioner for atomic energy from 1951 to 1970 stated publicly that in 1949 Israeli scientists were invited to theSaclay Nuclear Research Centre, this cooperation leading to a joint effort including sharing of knowledge between French and Israeli scientists especially those with knowledge from theManhattan Project.[1][2][3] According to Lieutenant Colonel Warner D. Farr in a report to theUSAF Counterproliferation Center while France was previously a leader in nuclear research "Israel and France were at a similar level of expertise after the war, and Israeli scientists could make significant contributions to the French effort. Progress in nuclear science and technology in France and Israel remained closely linked throughout the early fifties." Furthermore, according to Farr, "There were several Israeli observers at the French nuclear tests and the Israelis had 'unrestricted access to French nuclear test explosion data.'"[1]
The French justified their decision to provide Israel a nuclear reactor by claiming it was not without precedent. In September 1955 Canada publicly announced that it would help the Indian government build a heavy-water research reactor, theCIRUS reactor, for "peaceful purposes".[66] When Egyptian presidentGamal Abdel Nasser nationalized theSuez Canal, France proposed Israel attack Egypt and invade the Sinai as a pretext for France and Britain to invade Egypt posing as "peacekeepers" with the true intent of seizing the Suez Canal (seeSuez Crisis). In exchange, France would provide the nuclear reactor as the basis for the Israeli nuclear weapons program.Shimon Peres, sensing the opportunity on the nuclear reactor, accepted. On September 17, 1956, Peres and Bergmann reached a tentative agreement inParis for the CEA to sell Israel a small research reactor. This was reaffirmed by Peres at theProtocol of Sèvres conference in late October for the sale of a reactor to be built near Dimona and for a supply of uranium fuel.[67][58]
Israel benefited from an unusually pro-Israel French government during this time.[58] After the Suez Crisis led to the threat ofSoviet intervention and the British and French were being forced to withdraw under pressure from the U.S., Ben-Gurion sent Peres andGolda Meir to France. During their discussions, the groundwork was laid for France to build a larger nuclear reactor and chemical reprocessing plant, and Prime MinisterGuy Mollet, ashamed at having abandoned his commitment to fellowsocialists in Israel, supposedly told an aide, "I owe the bomb to them,"[68] while General Paul Ely,Chief of the Defence Staff, said, "We must give them this to guarantee their security, it is vital." Mollet's successorMaurice Bourgès-Maunoury stated, "I gave you [Israelis] the bomb in order to prevent another Holocaust from befalling the Jewish people and so that Israel could face its enemies in the Middle East."[58]
The French–Israeli relationship was finalized on October 3, 1957, in two agreements the contents of which remain secret:[58] One political, that declared the project to be for peaceful purposes and specified other legal obligations, and one technical that described a 24megawatt EL-102 reactor. The one to actually be built was to be two to three times as large[69] and be able to produce 22kilograms ofplutonium a year.[70] When the reactor arrived in Israel, Prime Minister Ben-Gurion declared that its purpose was to provide a pumping station to desalinate a billion gallons of seawater annually and turn the desert into an "agricultural paradise". Six of seven members of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission promptly resigned, protesting that the reactor was the precursor to "political adventurism which will unite the world against us".[71]
Before construction began it was determined that the scope of the project would be too large for the EMET and IAEC team, so Shimon Peres recruited ColonelManes Pratt, then Israelimilitary attaché in Burma, to be the project leader. Building began in late 1957 or early 1958, bringing hundreds of French engineers and technicians to theBeersheba and Dimona area.[citation needed] In addition, thousands of newly immigratedSephardi Jews were recruited to do digging; to circumvent strictlabor laws, they were hired in increments of 59 days, separated by one day off.[72]
By the late 1950s Shimon Peres had established and appointed a new intelligence service assigned to search the globe and clandestinely secure technology, materials and equipment needed for the program, by any means necessary. The new service would eventually be namedLEKEM (pronounced LAKAM, the Hebrew acronym for 'Science liaison Bureau'). Peres appointed IDF Internal Security Chief, Benjamin Blumberg, to the task. As head of the LEKEM, Blumberg would rise to become a key figure in Israel's intelligence community, coordinating agents worldwide and securing the crucial components for the program.[73][74][75][76]
WhenCharles de Gaulle becameFrench President in late 1958 he wanted to end French–Israeli nuclear cooperation and said that he would not supply Israel with uranium unless the plant was opened to international inspectors, declared peaceful, and no plutonium was reprocessed.[77] Through an extended series of negotiations, Shimon Peres finally reached a compromise with Foreign MinisterMaurice Couve de Murville over two years later, in which French companies would be able to continue to fulfill their contract obligations and Israel would declare the project peaceful.[78] Due to this, French assistance did not end until 1966.[79] However, the supply of uranium fuel was stopped earlier, in 1963.[80] Despite this, a French uranium company based inGabon may have sold Israel uranium in 1965. The US government launched an investigation but was unable to determine if such a sale had taken place.[81]
The United States was concerned over possible Israeli nuclear proliferation. US intelligence began to notice the Dimona reactor shortly after construction began, when AmericanU-2 spy planes overflew the reactor.[82] In 1960, the outgoingEisenhower administration asked the Israeli government for an explanation for the mysterious construction near Dimona. Israel's response was that the site was a future textile factory, but that no inspection would be allowed. When Ben-Gurion visited Washington in 1960, he held a series of meetings withState Department officials, and was bluntly told that for Israel to possess nuclear weapons would affect the balance of power in the region.[71]
AfterJohn F. Kennedy took office as US President in 1961, he put continuous pressure on Israel to open the plant to American inspection. Israeli newspaperHaaretz reported in 2019 that, throughout the spring and summer of 1963, the leaders of the United States and Israel – PresidentJohn F. Kennedy and prime ministersDavid Ben-Gurion andLevi Eshkol – were engaged in a high-stakes battle of wills over Israel's nuclear program. The tensions were invisible to the publics of both countries, and only a few senior officials, on both sides, were aware of the severity of the situation. According toYuval Ne'eman, Eshkol, Ben-Gurion's successor, and his associates saw Kennedy as presenting Israel with a real ultimatum. According to Ne'eman, the former Israel Air Force commander Maj. Gen. (res.)Dan Tolkowsky, seriously entertained the fear that Kennedy might send U.S. airborne troops toDimona, the home ofIsrael's nuclear complex.[83] US pressure was such that reportedly, every high-level meeting and communication between the US and Israeli governments contained a demand for an inspection of Dimona. To increase pressure, Kennedy denied Ben-Gurion a meeting at theWhite House – when they met in May 1961, it was at theWaldorf Astoria Hotel in New York. The meeting itself was dominated by this issue. Ben-Gurion was evasive on the issue for two years, in the face of persistent US demands for an inspection.[84]
On March 25, 1963, President Kennedy and CIA DirectorJohn A. McCone discussed the Israeli nuclear program. According to McCone, Kennedy raised the "question of Israel acquiring nuclear capability," and McCone provided Kennedy withKent's estimate of the anticipated negative consequences of Israeli nuclearization. According to McCone, Kennedy then instructed National Security AdviserMcGeorge Bundy to guide Secretary of StateDean Rusk, in collaboration with the CIA director and the AEC chairman, to submit a proposal "as to how some form of international or bilateral U.S. safeguards could be instituted to protect against the contingency mentioned." That also meant that the "next informal inspection of the Israeli reactor complex [must] …be undertaken promptly and... be as thorough as possible."[83]
On April 2, 1963, Ambassador Barbour met Prime Minister Ben-Gurion and presented the American request for his "assent to semi-annual visits to Dimona perhaps in May and November, with full access to all parts and instruments in the facility, by qualified U.S. scientists." Ben-Gurion, apparently taken by surprise, responded by saying the issue would have to be postponed until after Passover, which that year ended on April 15. To highlight the point further, two days later, Assistant SecretaryTalbot summoned Israeli AmbassadorHarman to the State Department and presented him with a diplomatic démarche on the inspections. This message to Ben-Gurion was the first salvo in what would become "the toughest American-Israeli confrontation over the Israeli nuclear program".[83]
On April 26, 1963, more than three weeks after the original U.S. demand concerning Dimona, Ben-Gurion responded to Kennedy with a seven-page letter that focused on broad issues of Israeli security and regional stability. Claiming that Israel faced an unprecedented threat, Ben-Gurion invoked the specter of "another Holocaust," and insisted that Israel's security should be protected by joint external security guarantees, to be extended by the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Kennedy, however, was determined not to let Ben-Gurion change the subject. On May 4, 1963, he replied to the prime minister, assuring him that while "we are watching closely current developments in the Arab world," as to Ben-Gurion's proposal for a joint superpower declaration, Kennedy dismissed both its practicality and its political wisdom. Kennedy was much less worried about an "early Arab attack" than he was by "a successful development of advanced offensive systems which, as you say, could not be dealt with by presently available means."[83]
Kennedy would not budge on Dimona, and the disagreements became a "pain in the neck" for him, asRobert Komer later wrote. The confrontation with Israel escalated when the State Department transmitted Kennedy's latest letter to the Tel Aviv embassy on June 15 for immediate delivery to Ben-Gurion by Ambassador Barbour. In the letter Kennedy fleshed out his insistence on biannual visits with a set of detailed technical conditions. The letter was akin to an ultimatum: If the U.S. government could not obtain "reliable information" on the state of the Dimona project, Washington's "commitment to and support of Israel" could be "seriously jeopardized." But the letter was never presented to Ben-Gurion. The telegram with Kennedy's letter arrived in Tel Aviv on Saturday, June 15, the day before Ben-Gurion's announcement of his resignation, a decision that stunned his country and the world. Ben-Gurion never explained, in writing or orally, what led him to resign, beyond citing "personal reasons." He denied that his move was related to any specific policy issues, but the question of the extent to which Kennedy's Dimona pressure played a role remains open to discussion to the present day.[83]
On July 5, less than 10 days after Levi Eshkol succeeded Ben-Gurion as prime minister, Ambassador Barbour delivered to him a first letter from President Kennedy. The letter was virtually a copy of the undelivered letter of June 15 to Ben-Gurion.[85] As Yuval Ne'eman stated, it was immediately apparent to Eshkol and his advisers that Kennedy's demands were akin to an ultimatum, and thus constituted a crisis in the making. A stunned Eshkol, in his first and interim response, on July 17, requested more time to study the subject and for consultations. The premier noted that while he hoped that U.S-Israeli friendship would grow under his watch, "Israel would do what it had to do for its national security and to safeguard its sovereign rights." Barbour, apparently wanting to mitigate the bluntness of the letter, assured Eshkol that Kennedy's statement was "factual": Critics of strong U.S.-Israel relations might complicate the diplomatic relationship if Dimona was left uninspected.[83]
On August 19, after six weeks of consultations that generated at least eight different drafts, Eshkol handed Barbour his written reply to Kennedy's demands. It began by reiterating Ben-Gurion's past assurances that Dimona's purpose was peaceful. As to Kennedy's request, Eshkol wrote that given the special relationship between the two countries, he had decided to allow regular visits of U.S. representatives to the Dimona site. On the specific issue of the schedule, Eshkol suggested – as Ben-Gurion had in his last letter to Kennedy – that late 1963 would be the time for the first visit: By then, he wrote, "the French group will have handed the reactor over to us and it will be undertaking general tests and measurements of its physical parameters at zero power."[83]
Eshkol was vague on the proposed frequency of visits. Eshkol disregarded Kennedy's demand for biannual tours, while avoiding a frontal challenge to Kennedy's request. "Having considered this request, I believe we shall be able to reach agreement on the future schedule of visits," Eshkol wrote. In sum, the prime minister split the difference: To end the confrontation, he assented to "regular visits" by U.S. scientists, but he did not accept the idea of the prompt visit that Kennedy wanted and avoided making an explicit commitment to biannual inspections. Kennedy's appreciative reply did not mention these divergences but assumed a basic agreement on "regular visits."[83]
In the wake of Eshkol's letter, the first of the long-sought regular inspection visits to Dimona took place in mid-January 1964, two months afterKennedy's assassination. The Israelis told the American visitors that the reactor had gone critical only a few weeks earlier, but that claim was not accurate. Israel acknowledged years later that the Dimona reactor became operational in mid-1963, as the Kennedy administration had originally assumed.[83]
It turned out that Kennedy's insistence on biannual visits to Dimona was not implemented after his death. U.S. government officials remained interested in such a schedule, and PresidentLyndon B. Johnson did raise the issue with Eshkol, but he never pressed hard on the subject the way that Kennedy had.[83]
In the end, the confrontation between President Kennedy and two Israeli prime ministers resulted in a series of six American inspections of the Dimona nuclear complex, once a year between 1964 and 1969. They were never conducted under the strict conditions Kennedy laid out in his letters. While Kennedy's successor remained committed to the cause of nuclear nonproliferation and supported American inspection visits at Dimona, he was much less concerned about holding the Israelis to Kennedy's terms. In retrospect, this change of attitude may have saved the Israeli nuclear program.[83]
Israel eventually accepted an inspection, and Kennedy made two concessions – the US would sell IsraelHawk anti-aircraft missiles after having refused to sell Israel any major weapon systems for years. In addition, the US government agreed to the Israeli demand that the inspections would be carried out by an all-American team which would schedule its visits weeks in advance, rather than theIAEA.
Allegedly, because Israel knew the schedule of the inspectors' visits, it was able to disguise the true purpose of the reactor. The inspectors eventually reported that their inspections were useless due to Israeli restrictions on what parts of the facility they could investigate. According to British writer and intelligence expertGordon Thomas, formerMossad agentRafi Eitan told him how the inspectors were fooled:
A bogus control center was built over the real one at Dimona, complete with fake control panels and computer-lined gauges that gave a credible impression of measuring the output of a reactor engaged in an irrigation scheme to turn the Negev into a lush pastureland. The area containing the "heavy" water smuggled from France and Norway was placed off-limits to the inspectors "for safety reasons". The sheer volume of heavy water would have been proof the reactor was being readied for a very different purpose.[71]
In 1964, the US government tried to prevent Argentina's sale ofyellowcake to Israel, with no success.[86]
In 1968, the CIA stated in a top-secret National Intelligence Estimate that Israel had nuclear weapons. This assessment was given to PresidentLyndon B. Johnson. The basis for this claim was the CIA's belief, although never proven, that the uranium that went missing in theApollo Affair had been diverted to Israel (Seymour Hersh claims that during the plant decommissioning nearly all of the missing uranium was recovered trapped in the facility pipes or accounted for.),[87] as well as evidence gathered fromNSA electronic eavesdropping on Israeli communications, which proved that theIsraeli Air Force had engaged in practice bombing runs that only made sense for the delivery of nuclear weapons.[82]
In 1969, the yearRichard Nixon became president, the US government terminated the inspections. According to US government documents declassified in 2007, the Nixon administration was concerned with Israel's nuclear program, worrying that it could set off a regional nuclear arms race, with theSoviet Union possibly granting the Arab states a nuclear guarantee. In a memorandum dated July 19, 1969, National Security AdviserHenry Kissinger warned that "The Israelis, who are one of the few peoples whose survival is genuinely threatened, are probably more likely than almost any other country to actually use their nuclear weapons."
However, Kissinger warned that attempting to force Israel to disarm could have consequences, writing that "Israel will not take us seriously on the nuclear issue unless they believe we are prepared to withhold something they very much need" (Kissinger was referring to a pending sale ofF-4 Phantom fighter jets to Israel). Kissinger wrote that "if we withhold the Phantoms and they make this fact public in the United States, enormous political pressure will be mounted on us. We will be in an indefensible position if we cannot state why we are withholding the planes. Yet if we explain our position publicly, we will be the ones to make Israel's possession of nuclear weapons public with all the international consequences this entails." Among the suggestions Kissinger presented to Nixon was the idea of the United States adopting a policy of "nuclear ambiguity", or pretending not to know about Israel's nuclear program.[88]
According to Israeli historianAvner Cohen, author ofIsrael and the Bomb, historical evidence indicates that when Nixon met with Israeli prime ministerGolda Meir at the White House in September 1969, they reached a secret understanding, where Israel would keep its nuclear program secret and refrain from carrying out nuclear tests, and the United States would tolerate Israel's possession of nuclear weapons and not press it to sign theNuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.[88]
Despite requests from open-government activists, subsequent U.S. presidents have respected Israel's request not to disclose any information about its possession of nuclear weapons, and federal employees with security clearances are prohibited from doing so.[89][90]
Top secret British documents[91][92] obtained byBBCNewsnight show that Britain made hundreds of secret shipments of restricted materials to Israel in the 1950s and 1960s. These included specialist chemicals for reprocessing and samples of fissile material—uranium-235 in 1959, and plutonium in 1966, as well as highly enrichedlithium-6, which is used to boost fission bombs and fuel hydrogen bombs.[93] The investigation also showed that Britain shipped 20 tons ofheavy water directly to Israel in 1959 and 1960 to start up theDimona reactor.[94] The transaction was made through a Norwegian front company calledNoratom, which took a 2% commission on the transaction.
Britain was challenged about the heavy water deal at the International Atomic Energy Agency after it was exposed onNewsnight in 2005. British foreign ministerKim Howells claimed this was a sale to Norway. But a formerBritish intelligence officer who investigated the deal at the time confirmed that this was really a sale to Israel and the Noratom contract was just a charade.[95] TheForeign Office finally admitted in March 2006 that Britain knew the destination was Israel all along.[96] Israel admits running the Dimona reactor with Norway's heavy water since 1963. French engineers who helped build Dimona say the Israelis were expert operators, so only a relatively small portion of the water was lost during the years since the reactor was first put into operation.[97]
In 1961, theIsraeli Prime MinisterDavid Ben-Gurion informed theCanadian Prime MinisterJohn Diefenbaker that a pilot plutonium-separation plant would be built at Dimona. British intelligence concluded from this and other information that this "can only mean that Israel intends to produce nuclear weapons".[91] The nuclear reactor at Dimonawent critical in 1962.[1] After Israel's rupture with France, the Israeli government reportedly reached out to Argentina. The Argentine government agreed to sell Israelyellowcake (uranium oxide).[81][98] Between 1963 and 1966, about 90 tons of yellowcake were allegedly shipped to Israel from Argentina in secret.[80] By 1965 the Israeli reprocessing plant was completed and ready to convert the reactor'sfuel rods intoweapons grade plutonium.[99]
The exact costs for the construction of the Israeli nuclear program are unknown, though Peres later said that the reactor cost $80 million in 1960,[100] half of which was raised by foreign Jewish donors, including many American Jews. Some of these donors were given a tour of the Dimona complex in 1968.[101]
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Israel is believed to have begun full-scale production of nuclear weapons following the 1967Six-Day War, although it had built its first operational nuclear weapon by December 1966.[12] ACentral Intelligence Agency (CIA) report from early 1967 stated that Israel had the materials to construct a bomb in six to eight weeks[102] and some authors suggest that Israel had two crude bombs ready for use during the war.[1] According to US journalistSeymour Hersh, everything was ready for production at this time save an official order to do so. Israel crossed the nuclear threshold on the eve of the Six-Day War in May 1967.[103] "[Prime Minister]Eshkol, according to a number of Israeli sources, secretly ordered the Dimona [nuclear reactor] scientists to assemble two crude nuclear devices. He placed them under the command of Brigadier GeneralYitzhak Yaakov [he], the chief of research and development in Israel's Defense Ministry. The crude atomic bombs were readied for deployment on trucks that could race to the Egyptian border for detonation in the event Arab forces overwhelmed Israeli defenses."[103] Spider (Hebrew:עכביש) was the name for the devices.[104] The name for the plan wasOperation Shimshon (Hebrew:מבצע שמשון), named after thedeath of Samson inJudges 16:30.[105][106] It was also referred to asOperation Samson,[107][108]codename "Samson" (Hebrew:שם הקוד "שמשון"),[109][110]or (Hebrew:מבצע שמשון,romanized: Mivtza Shimshon).[111][112] General Yaakov also sometimes called the planOperation Doomsday. (Hebrew:מבצע יום הדין,romanized: Mivtza Yum Hadin).[113][114][115]
Another CIA report from 1968 states that "Israel might undertake a nuclear weapons program in the next several years."[116]Moshe Dayan, then Defense Minister, believed that nuclear weapons were cheaper and more practical than indefinitely growing Israel's conventional forces.[117] He convinced theLabor Party's finance ministerPinchas Sapir of the value of commencing the program by giving him a tour of the Dimona site in early 1968, and soon after Dayan decided that he had the authority to order the start of full production of four to five nuclear warheads a year. Hersh stated that it is widely believed that the words "Never Again" were welded, in English and Hebrew, onto the first warhead.[118]
In order to produce plutonium the Israelis needed a large supply ofuranium ore. In 1968, theMossad purchased 200 tons fromUnion Minière du Haut Katanga, aBelgian mining company, on the pretense of buying it for an Italian chemical company inMilan. Once the uranium was shipped fromAntwerp it was transferred to an Israeli freighter at sea and brought to Israel. The orchestrated disappearance of the uranium, namedOperation Plumbat, became the subject of the 1978 bookThe Plumbat Affair.[119]
Estimates as to how many warheads Israel has built since the late 1960s have varied, mainly based on the amount of fissile material that could have been produced and on the revelations of Israeli nuclear technicianMordechai Vanunu.
By 1969,U.S. Defense SecretaryMelvin Laird believed that Israel might have a nuclear weapon that year.[120][121] Later that year,U.S. PresidentRichard Nixon in a meeting with Israeli prime ministerGolda Meir pressed Israel to "make no visible introduction of nuclear weapons or undertake anuclear test program", so maintaining a policy of nuclear ambiguity.[122] Before theYom Kippur War, Peres nonetheless wanted Israel to publicly demonstrate its nuclear capability to discourage an Arab attack, and fear of Israeli nuclear weapons may have discouraged Arab military strategy during the war from being as aggressive as it could have been.[1]
The CIA believed that Israel's first bombs may have been made withhighly enriched uranium stolen in the mid-1960s from theU.S. Navy nuclear fuel plant operated by theNuclear Materials and Equipment Corporation, where sloppy material accounting would have masked the theft.[123][124]
By 1974, theU.S. intelligence community believed Israel had stockpiled a small number offission weapons,[125] and by 1979 were perhaps in a position to test a more advanced smalltactical nuclear weapon orthermonuclear weapon trigger design.[126]
The CIA believed that the number of Israeli nuclear weapons stayed from 10 to 20 from 1974 until the early 1980s.[24] Vanunu's information in October 1986 said that based on a reactor operating at 150 megawatts and a production of 40 kg of plutonium per year, Israel had 100 to 200 nuclear devices. Vanunu revealed that between 1980 and 1986 Israel attained the ability to buildthermonuclear weapons.[52] By the mid 2000s estimates of Israel's arsenal ranged from 75 to 400 nuclear warheads.[8][24]
Several reports have surfaced claiming that Israel has someuranium enrichment capability at Dimona. Vanunu asserted thatgas centrifuges were operating in Machon 8, and that a laser enrichment plant was being operated in Machon 9 (Israel holds a 1973 patent onlaser isotope separation). According to Vanunu, the production-scale plant has been operating since 1979–80.[127][128] Ifhighly enriched uranium is being produced in substantial quantities, then Israel's nuclear arsenal could be much larger than estimated solely from plutonium production.[129]
In 1991 alone, as the Soviet Union dissolved, nearly 20 top Jewish Soviet scientists reportedly emigrated to Israel, some of whom had been involved in operating nuclear power plants and planning for the next generation of Soviet reactors. In September 1992, German intelligence was quoted in the press as estimating that 40 top Jewish Soviet nuclear scientists had emigrated to Israel since 1989.[130]
In a 2010 interview, Uzi Eilam, former head of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, told the Israeli dailyMaariv that the nuclear reactor in Dimona had been through extensive improvements and renovations and is now functioning as new, with no safety problems or hazard to the surrounding environment or the region.[131]
According to Lieutenant Colonel Warner D. Farr in a report to theUS Air Force Counterproliferation Center, much lateral proliferation happened between pre-nuclear Israel and France, stating "the French nuclear test in 1960 made two nuclear powers, not one—such was the depth of collaboration" and that "the Israelis had unrestricted access to French nuclear test explosion data," minimizing the need for early Israeli testing, although this cooperation cooled following the success of the French tests.[1]
In June 1976, a West Germany army magazine,Wehrtechnik ("defense technology"), claimed that Western intelligence reports documented Israel conducting an underground test in the Negev in 1963. The bookNuclear Weapons in the Middle East: Dimensions and Responsibilities by Taysir Nashif cites other reports that on November 2, 1966, the country may have carried out a non-nuclear test, speculated to be zero yield orimplosion in nature in the IsraeliNegev desert.[24][1]
On September 22, 1979, Israel may have been involved in a possible nuclear bomb test, also known as theVela incident, in the southernIndian Ocean. A committee was set up under then-U.S. presidentJimmy Carter, headed by ProfessorJack Ruina of theMassachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Most of the committee's members assumed that South African navy vessels had sailed out ofSimonstown port, nearCape Town, to a secret location in the Indian Ocean, where they conducted the nuclear test. The committee defined the nuclear device tested as compact and especially clean, emitting little radioactive fallout, making it very nearly impossible to pinpoint. Another committee assessment concluded a cannon had fired a nuclear artillery shell, and the detected test was focused on a small tactical nuclear weapon.
Afterrenouncing their nuclear weapons program, South Africa was revealed to have only six large, primitive, aircraft-deliverable atomic bombs, with a seventh being built, but no sophisticated miniaturized devices of the artillery shell size.[132]Avner Cohen, professor at theMiddlebury Institute of International Studies and Director of the Education Program and Senior Fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, stated regarding the Vela incident that "Now, 40 years later, there is a scientific and historical consensus that it was a nuclear test and that it had to be Israeli."[133]
In what it called the "Last Secret of the Six-Day War",The New York Times reported that in the days before the 1967Six-Day War Israel planned to insert a team of paratroopers by helicopter into theSinai, set up, and remote detonate a nuclear bomb on command from the prime minister and military command on a mountaintop as a warning to belligerent surrounding states. However, Israel won the war before the test could be set up. Retired Israeli brigadier general Itzhak Yaakov referred to this operation as the IsraeliSamson Option.[46]
Pioneering American nuclear weapons designerTheodore Taylor commented on the uncertainties involved in the process of boosting small fission weapons and the thermonuclear designs seen in the Vanunu leaked photographs. He stated that these designs required more than theoretical analysis for full confidence in the weapons' performance. Taylor therefore concluded that Israel had "unequivocally" tested an advanced series miniaturized nuclear device.[134]
The Israeli nuclear program was first revealed on December 13, 1960, in aTime magazine article,[135] which said that a non-Communist, non-NATO country had made an "atomic development". On December 16, theDaily Express in London revealed this country to be Israel, and on December 18,US Atomic Energy Commission chairmanJohn McCone appeared onMeet the Press to officially confirm the Israeli construction of a nuclear reactor and announce his resignation.[136] The following dayThe New York Times, with the help of McCone, revealed that France was assisting Israel.[137]
The news led Ben-Gurion to make the only statement by an Israeli prime minister about Dimona. On December 21 he announced to theKnesset that the government was building a 24 megawatt reactor "which will serve the needs of industry, agriculture, health, and science", and that it "is designed exclusively for peaceful purposes".[138] Bergmann, who was chairman of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission from 1954 to 1966, however said that "There is no distinction between nuclear energy for peaceful purposes or warlike ones"[139] and that "We shall never again be led as lambs to the slaughter".[140]
The first public revelation of Israel's nuclear capability (as opposed to development program) came fromNBC News, which reported in January 1969 that Israel decided "to embark on a crash course program to produce a nuclear weapon" two years previously, and that they possessed or would soon be in possession of such a device.[141] This was initially dismissed by Israeli and U.S. officials, as well as in an article inThe New York Times. Just one year later on July 18,The New York Times made public for the first time that theU.S. government believed Israel to possess nuclear weapons or to have the "capacity to assemble atomic bombs on short notice".[142] Israel reportedly assembled 13 bombs during theYom Kippur War as a last defense against total defeat, and kept them usable after the war.[117]
The first extensive details of the weapons program came in the LondonSunday Times on October 5, 1986, which published information provided byMordechai Vanunu, a technician formerly employed at theNegev Nuclear Research Center nearDimona. For publication of state secrets Vanunu waskidnapped by theMossad in Rome, brought back to Israel, and sentenced to 18 years in prison fortreason andespionage.[53] Although there had been much speculation prior to Vanunu's revelations that the Dimona site was creating nuclear weapons, Vanunu's information indicated that Israel had also builtthermonuclear weapons.[52]
Theodore Taylor, a former U.S. weapon designer leading the field in small, efficient nuclear weapons, reviewed the 1986 leaks and photographs of the Israeli nuclear program by Mordechai Vanunu in detail. Taylor concluded that Israel's thermonuclear weapon designs appeared to be "less complex than those of other nations," and as of 1986 "not capable of producing yields in the megaton or higher range." Nevertheless, "they may produce at least several times the yield of fission weapons with the same quantity of plutonium or highly enriched uranium." In other words, Israel could "boost" the yield of its nuclear fission weapons. According to Taylor, the uncertainties involved in the process of boosting required more than theoretical analysis for full confidence in the weapons' performance. Taylor therefore concluded that Israel had "unequivocally" tested a miniaturized nuclear device. TheInstitute for Defense Analyses (IDA) concluded after reviewing the evidence given by Vanunu that as of 1987, "the Israelis are roughly where the U.S. was in the fission weapon field in about 1955 to 1960" and would requiresupercomputers orparallel computing clusters to refine their hydrogen bomb designs for improved yields without testing, though noting they were already then developing the computer code base required.[2] Israel was first permitted to import US built supercomputers beginning in November 1995.[134]
According to a 2013 report by theBulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which cited USDefense Intelligence Agency sources, Israel began the production of nuclear weapons in 1967, when it produced its first two nuclear bombs. According to the report's calculations, Israel produced nuclear weapons at an average rate of two per year, and stopped production in 2004. The report stated that Israel has 80 nuclear warheads and has enough fissile material to produce 190 more.[143][144] In 2014, former US presidentJimmy Carter stated that "Israel has, what, 300 or more, nobody knows exactly how many" nuclear weapons.[6]
In 2010,The Guardian released South African government documents that it alleged confirmed the existence of Israel's nuclear arsenal. According to the newspaper, the documents are minutes taken by the South African side of alleged meetings between senior officials from the two countries in 1975.The Guardian alleged that these documents reveal that Israel had offered to sell South Africa nuclear weapons that year. The documents appeared to confirm information disclosed by a former South African naval commanderDieter Gerhardt – jailed in 1983 for spying for the Soviet Union, who said there was an agreement between Israel and South Africa involving an offer by Israel to arm eight Jericho missiles with atomic bombs.[145][146]
However, Waldo Stumpf—who led a project to dismantleSouth Africa's nuclear weapons program[147]—doubted Israel or South Africa would have contemplated a deal seriously, saying that Israel could not have offered to sell nuclear warheads to his country due to the serious international complications that such a deal could entail.Shimon Peres, then Defense Minister (later Israeli President), rejected the newspaper's claim that the negotiations took place. He also asserted thatThe Guardian's conclusions were "based on the selective interpretation of South African documents and not on concrete facts".[148]
Avner Cohen, author ofIsrael and the Bomb andThe Worst-Kept Secret: Israel's Bargain with the Bomb, said "Nothing in the documents suggests there was an actual offer by Israel to sell nuclear weapons to the regime inPretoria."[149]
The State of Israel has never made public any details of its nuclear capability or arsenal. The following is a history of estimates by many different sources on the size and strength of Israel's nuclear arsenal. Estimates may vary due to the amount of material Israel has on store versus assembled weapons, and estimates as to how much material the weapons actually use, as well as the overall time in which the reactor was operated:
Israeli military forces possess land, air, and sea-based methods for deploying their nuclear weapons, thus forming anuclear triad that is mainly medium to long ranged, the backbone of which is submarine-launchedcruise missiles and medium andintercontinental ballistic missiles, withIsraeli Air Force long range strike aircraft on call to perform nuclear interdiction and strategic strikes.[186] During 2008 theJericho IIIICBM became operational, giving Israel extremely long range nuclear strike abilities.[187][188]
Israel is believed to have nuclearsecond strike abilities in the form of its submarine fleet and its nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that are understood to be buried deeply enough that they would survive apre-emptive nuclear strike.[57][189]Ernst David Bergmann was the first to seriously begin thinking about ballistic missile capability and Israel test-fired its first Shavit II sounding rocket in July 1961.[190][191] In 1963, Israel put a large-scale project into motion, to jointly develop and build 25short-range missiles with the French aerospace companyDassault. The Israeli project, codenamed Project 700, also included the construction of a missile field atHirbat Zacharia, a site west of Jerusalem.[192] The missiles that were first developed with France became theJericho I system, first operational in 1971. It is possible that the Jericho I was removed from operational service during the 1990s.
In the mid-1980s theJericho IImedium-range missile, which is believed to have a range of 2,800–5,000 km, entered service.[193][194][1] It is believed that Jericho II is capable of delivering nuclear weapons with a superior degree of accuracy.[195] TheShavit three stages solid fuel space launch vehicle produced by Israel to launch many of its satellites into low earth orbit since 1988 is a civilian version of the Jericho II.[196] TheJericho IIIICBM, became operational in January 2008[197][198] and some reports speculate that the missile may be able to carryMIRVed warheads.[199] The maximum range estimation of theJericho III is 11,500 km with a payload of 1,000–1,300 kg (up to six small nuclear warheads of 100 kt each or one 1 megaton nuclear warhead),[16][181] and its accuracy is considered high.[197]
In January 2008, Israel carried out the successful test launch of a long-range, ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead from the reported launch site at thePalmachim Airbase south of Tel Aviv.[200] Israeli radio identified the missile as a Jericho III and the HebrewYNet news Web site quoted unnamed defence officials as saying the test had been "dramatic"[201][202] and that the new missile can reach "extremely long distances", without elaborating.[203] Soon after the successful test launch,Isaac Ben-Israel, a retired army general andTel Aviv University professor, told Israeli Channel 2 TV:
Everybody can do the math and understand that the significance is that we can reach with a rocket engine to every point in the world.
The test came two days afterEhud Olmert, then Israel's Prime Minister, warned that "all options were on the table to preventTehran from acquiring nuclear weapons" and a few months later Israel bombed a suspected Syrian nuclear facility built with extensive help from North Korea.[204] At the same time, regional defense experts said that by the beginning of 2008, Israel had already launched a programme to extend the range of its existingJericho II ground attack missiles.[198] The Jericho-II B missile is capable of sending a one ton nuclear payload 5,000 kilometers.[1] The range of Israels' Jericho II B missiles is reportedly capable of being modified to carry nuclear warheads no heavier than 500 kg over 7,800 km, making it anICBM.[205] It is estimated that Israel has between 50 and 100Jericho II B missiles based at facilities built in the 1980s.[206] The number ofJericho III missiles that Israel possesses is unknown.
Israel's fighter aircraft have been cited as possible nuclear delivery systems.[207] The IsraeliAerial refueling fleet of modifiedBoeing 707s and the use of external andconformal fuel tanks gives Israeli F-15,F-15I andF-16 fighter bombers strategic reach, as demonstrated inOperation Wooden Leg.[208][209][210][failed verification]
TheIsraeli Navy operates a fleet of five modern German-builtDolphin-class submarines[citation needed] with a further three planned,[211][212][213] and various reports indicate that thesesubmarines are equipped withPopeye Turbo cruise missiles that can deliver nuclear and conventional warheads with extremely high accuracy.[195][214]
The proven effectiveness of cruise missiles of its own production may have been behind Israel's recent acquisition of these submarines which are equipped with torpedo tubes suitable for launching long-range (1,500–2,400 km) nuclear-capable cruise missiles[215][216] that would offer Israel asecond strike capability.[217] Israel is reported to possess a 200 kg nuclear warhead, containing 6 kg of plutonium, that could be mounted on cruise missiles.[215] The missiles were reportedly test launched in theIndian Ocean nearSri Lanka in June 2000, and are reported to have hit their target at a range of 1,500 km.
In June 2002, former State Department and Pentagon officials confirmed that the US Navy observed Israeli missile tests in the Indian Ocean in 2000, and that the Dolphin-class vessels have been fitted with nuclear-capable cruise missiles of a new design. It is believed by some to be a version ofRafael Armament Development Authority's Popeye turbo cruise missile while some believe that the missile may be a version of the Gabriel 4LR that is produced by Israel Aircraft Industries. However, others claim that such a range implies an entirely new type of missile.[218][219][220]
During the second half of the 1990s, Israel asked the United States to sell it 50Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles to enhance its deep-strike capabilities. Washington rejected Israel's request in March 1998, since such a sale would have violated theMissile Technology Control Regime guidelines, which prohibit the transfer of missiles with a range exceeding 300 km. Shortly after the rejection, an Israeli official toldDefense News: "History has taught us that we cannot wait indefinitely for Washington to satisfy our military requirements. If this weapon system is denied to us, we will have little choice but to activate our own defense industry in pursuit of this needed capability." In July 1998, the Air Intelligence Center warned the US Congress that Israel was developing a new type of cruise missile.[221]
According to Israeli defense sources, in June 2009 Israeli Dolphin-class submarine sailed from theMediterranean to theRed Sea via theSuez Canal during a drill that showed that Israel can access theIndian Ocean, and the Persian Gulf, far more easily than before.[222]Israel Defense Forces (IDF) sources said the decision to allow navy vessels to sail through the canal was made recently and was a definite "change of policy" within the service. Israeli officials said the submarine was surfaced when it passed through the canal. In the event of a conflict with Iran, and if Israel decided to involve its Dolphin-class submarines, the quickest route would be to send them through the Suez Canal.[223]
The Israeli fleet was expanded after Israel signed a €1.3 billion contract to purchase two additional submarines fromThyssenKrupp's subsidiaryHowaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft in 2006. These twoU212s are to be delivered to theIsraeli navy in 2011 and are "Dolphin II" class submarines.[224] The submarines are believed to be capable of launching cruise missiles carrying nuclear warheads, despite statements by the German government in 2006, in confirming the sale of the two vessels, that they were not equipped to carry nuclear weapons.[225] The two new boats are an upgraded version of the old Dolphins, and equipped with anair-independent propulsion system, that allow them to remain submerged for longer periods of time than the three nuclear arms-capable submarines that have been in Israel's fleet since 1999.[189][226] In October 2009 it was reported that the Israeli navy sought to buy a sixth Dolphin class submarine.[217]
On June 4, 2012,Der Spiegel published an investigative article stating that Israel has armed its newest submarines with nuclear missiles.[227] Numerous Israeli and German officials were quoted testifying to the nuclear capabilities of the submarines and the placement of nuclear missiles aboard the ships. In response to the article, officials from both Germany and Israel refused to comment.[228] Several papers have stated the implications of Israel attaining these nuclear weapon carrying submarines are increased due to the threat of attacks upon Iran by Israel.[229]
It has been reported that Israel has several other nuclear weapons capabilities:
Israel's deliberately ambiguous policy to confirm or deny its own possession of nuclear weapons, or to give any indication regarding their potential use, make it necessary to gather details from other sources, including diplomatic and intelligence sources and 'unauthorized' statements by its political and military leaders. In November 2023, government ministerAmihai Eliyahu claimed that the use of nuclear weapons was "one of the possibilities" when discussing Israel's options in its ongoingGaza war, for which he was suspended from theIsraeli cabinet,[239] but continued to participate in meetings via phone. His remarks were criticized by the Israeli opposition, a number of Arab countries, Iran, and China.[240][241]
Alternatively, with theBegin Doctrine, Israel is very clear and decisive regarding the country's policy on potential developments of nuclear capability by any other regional adversaries, which it will not allow.
Although Israel has officially acknowledged the existence of the reactor near Dimona since Ben-Gurion's speech to the Knesset in December 1960, Israel has never officially acknowledged its construction or possession of nuclear weapons.[242] In addition to this policy, on May 18, 1966, prime ministerLevi Eshkol told the Knesset that "Israel has no atomic weapons and will not be the first to introduce them into our region," a policy first articulated by Shimon Peres toU.S. PresidentJohn F. Kennedy in April 1963.[243] In November 1968, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S.Yitzhak Rabin informed theU.S. State Department that its understanding of "introducing" nuclear weapons meant testing, deploying or making them public, while merely possessing the weapons did not constitute "introducing" them.[244][245] Avner Cohen defines this initial posture as "nuclear ambiguity", but he defines the stage after it became clear by 1969 that Israel possessed nuclear weapons as a policy ofamimut,[57] or "nuclear opacity".[246]
In 1998, former prime ministerShimon Peres said that Israel "built a nuclear option, not in order to have aHiroshima but anOslo".[247] The "nuclear option" may refer to a nuclear weapon or to the nuclear reactor near Dimona, which Israel claims is used for scientific research. Peres, in his capacity as the Director General of the Ministry of Defense in the early 1950s, was responsible for building Israel's nuclear capability.[248]
In a December 2006 interview, prime ministerEhud Olmert stated that Iran aspires "to have a nuclear weapon as America, France, Israel and Russia".[249] Olmert's office later said that the quote was taken out of context; in other parts of the interview, Olmert refused to confirm or deny Israel's nuclear weapon status.[250]
In January 2020, while giving a cabinet speech on theEastMed pipeline, prime ministerBenjamin Netanyahu said "The significance of this project is that we are turning Israel into a nuclear power," and then corrected himself, saying "energy power".[39]
In August 2022, prime ministerYair Lapid made what was interpreted as a veiled reference to Israeli nuclear weapons, in a speech to theIsrael Atomic Energy Commission and at the same time as aNon-Proliferation Treaty conference in New York. He said the country has "defensive and offensive capabilities, and what is referred to in the foreign media as 'other capabilities'".Reuters noted it is common for Israeli journalists to reference foreign media's reporting on Israeli nuclear weapons as they are limited byIsraeli military censorship.[38]
In April 2023, former prime ministerEhud Barak tweeted in Hebrew that Israel "possesses nuclear weapons". Writing amid theIsraeli judicial reform protests, he claimed Israeli and Western officials feared thecurrent Netanyahu government as seeking to establish a "messianic dictatorship" that would destabilize the region.[37]
On 5 November 2023, amid theGaza war, Heritage MinisterAmihai Eliyahu stated that the use of atomic weapons in theIsraeli invasion of the Gaza Strip could be "one of the possibilities". He was subsequently suspended by prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu from attending cabinet meetings, but continued to participate by phone.[241][251]
Israel's nuclear doctrine is shaped by its lack of strategic depth: a subsonic fighter jet could cross the 72 kilometres (39 nmi) from theJordan River to theMediterranean Sea in just 4 minutes. It additionally relies on a reservist-based military which magnifies civilian and military losses in its small population. Israel tries to compensate for these weaknesses by emphasisingintelligence, maneuverability and firepower.[45]
As a result, its strategy is based on the premise that it cannot afford to lose a single war, and thus must prevent them by maintaining deterrence, including the option ofpreemption. If these steps are insufficient, it seeks to prevent escalation and determine a quick and decisive war outside of its borders.[45]
Strategically, Israel's long-range missiles, nuclear-capable aircraft, and possibly its submarines present an effectivesecond strike deterrence against unconventional and conventional attack, and if Israel's defences fail and its population centers are threatened, theSamson Option, an all-out attack against an adversary, would be employed. Its nuclear arsenal can also be used tactically to destroy military units on the battlefield.[45]
Although nuclear weapons are viewed as the ultimate guarantor of Israeli security, as early as the 1960s the country has avoided building its military around them, instead pursuing absolute conventional superiority so as to forestall a last-resort nuclear engagement.[45]
According to historian Avner Cohen, Israel first articulated an official policy on the use of nuclear weapons in 1966, which revolved around four "red lines" that could lead to a nuclear response:[252]
Seymour Hersh alleges weapons were deployed on several occasions. On October 8, 1973, just after the start of theYom Kippur War,Golda Meir and her closest aides decided to put eight nuclear armedF-4s atTel Nof Airbase on 24-hour alert and as many nuclear missile launchers atSdot Micha Airbase operational as possible. Seymour Hersh adds that the initial target list that night "included the Egyptian and Syrian military headquarters nearCairo andDamascus".[253] This nuclear alert was meant not only as a means of precaution, but to push theSoviets to restrain the Arab offensive and to convince the US to begin sending supplies. One later report said that aSoviet intelligence officer did warn the Egyptian chief of staff, and colleagues of US National Security AdvisorHenry Kissinger said that the threat of a nuclear exchange caused him to urge for amassive Israeli resupply.[254] Hersh points out that before Israel obtained its own satellite capability, it engaged inespionage against the United States to obtain nuclear targeting information on Soviet targets.[255]
AfterIraqattacked Israel withScud missiles during the 1991Gulf War, Israel went on full-scale nuclear alert and mobile nuclear missile launchers were deployed.[48] In the buildup to the United States2003 invasion of Iraq, there were concerns that Iraq would launch an unconventional weapons attack on Israel. After discussions with PresidentGeorge W. Bush, the then Israeli prime ministerAriel Sharon warned "If our citizens are attacked seriously—by aweapon of mass destruction, chemical, biological or by some mega-terror attack act—and suffer casualties, then Israel will respond." Israeli officials interpreted President Bush's stance as allowing a nuclear Israeli retaliation on Iraq, but only if Iraq struck before the U.S. military invasion.[256]
Israeli military and nuclear doctrine increasingly focused onpreemptive war against any possible attack with conventional, chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, or even a potential conventional attack onIsrael's weapons of mass destruction.[1][257]
Louis René Beres, who contributed toProject Daniel, urges that Israel continue and improve these policies, in concert with the increasingly preemptive nuclear policies of the United States, as revealed in theDoctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations.[258]
Alone or with other nations, Israel has used diplomatic and military efforts as well as covert action to prevent other Middle Eastern countries from acquiring nuclear weapons.[259]
Mossad agents triggered explosions in April 1979 at a French production plant nearToulon, damaging two reactor cores destined for Iraqi reactors.[260] Mossad agents may also have been behind the assassinations of an Egyptian nuclear engineer in Paris as well as two Iraqi engineers, all working for the Iraqi nuclear program.[261]
On June 7, 1981, Israel launched an air strike destroying thebreeder reactor atOsirak, Iraq, inOperation Opera.[262][263]
Mossad may have also assassinated professorGerald Bull, an artillery expert, who was leading theProject Babylonsupergun forSaddam Hussein in the 1980s, which was capable of delivering a tactical nuclear payload.[264][265]
During the 1980s, Israelmade plans in cooperation with India to strike theKhan Research Laboratories in Kahuta, Pakistan, using Israeli Air Force planes operating from an airfield inJamnagar, India. The attack never occurred as Indian officials feared full and possibly nuclear retaliation from Pakistan, while Israel would be unaffected, leading them to not grant use of the airfield.[266]
On September 6, 2007, Israel launched an air strike dubbedOperation Orchard against a target in theDeir ez-Zor region ofSyria. While Israel refused to comment, unnamed US officials said Israel had shared intelligence with them thatNorth Korea was cooperating with Syria on some sort of nuclear facility.[267] Both Syria and North Korea denied the allegation and Syria filed a formal complaint with the United Nations.[268][269] TheInternational Atomic Energy Agency concluded in May 2011 that the destroyed facility was "very likely" an undeclared nuclear reactor.[270] JournalistSeymour Hersh speculated that the Syrian air strike might have been intended as a trial run for striking alleged Iranian nuclear weapons facilities.[271]
On January 7, 2007,The Sunday Times reported that Israel had drawn up plans to destroy threeIranian nuclear facilities.[272] Israel swiftly denied the specific allegation and analysts expressed doubts about its reliability.[273] Also in 2007 Israel pressed for United Nations economic sanctions againstIran,[274] and repeatedly threatened to launch a military strike on Iran if the United States did not do so first.[57][275][276]
Israel is widely believed to be behind theassassination of a number of Iranian nuclear scientists.[277][278][279][280] The death of the IranianphysicistArdeshir Hassanpour, who may have been involved in the nuclear program, has been claimed by the intelligence groupStratfor to have also been a Mossad assassination.[281]
The 2010Stuxnetmalware is widely believed to have been developed by Israel and the United States. It spread worldwide but appears to have been designed to target theNatanz Enrichment Plant, where it reportedly destroyed up to 1,000 centrifuges.[282][283][284]
On June 13, 2025, Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow,Isfahan andNatanz as part of theJune 2025 Israeli strikes on Iran.[285]
Israel was originally expected to sign the 1968Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and on June 12, 1968, Israel voted in favor of the treaty in theUN General Assembly.
However, when theinvasion of Czechoslovakia in August by the Soviet Union delayed ratification around the world, Israel's internal division and hesitation over the treaty became public.[286] TheJohnson administration attempted to use the sale of 50F-4 Phantoms to pressure Israel to sign the treaty that fall, culminating in a personal letter fromLyndon Johnson to Israeli prime ministerLevi Eshkol. But by November Johnson had backed away from tying the F-4 sale with the NPT after a stalemate in negotiations, and Israel would neither sign nor ratify the treaty.[287] After the series of negotiations, U.S. assistant secretary of defense for international securityPaul Warnke was convinced that Israel already possessed nuclear weapons.[288] In 2007 Israel sought an exemption to non-proliferation rules in order to import atomic material legally.[289]
In 1996, theUnited Nations General Assembly passed a resolution[290] calling for the establishment of anuclear-weapon-free zone in the region of the Middle East.[291] Arab nations and annual conferences of theInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) repeatedly have called for application of IAEA safeguards and the creation of a nuclear-free Middle East. Arab nations have accused the United States of practicing a double standard in criticizing Iran's nuclear program while ignoring Israel's possession of nuclear weapons.[292][293][294] According to a statement by theArab League, Arab states will withdraw from the NPT if Israel acknowledges having nuclear weapons but refuses to open its facilities to international inspection and destroy its arsenal.[295]
In a statement to the May 2009 preparatory meeting for the 2010 NPT Review Conference, the US delegation reiterated the longstanding US support for "universal adherence to the NPT", but uncharacteristically named Israel among the four countries that have not done so. An unnamed Israeli official dismissed the suggestion that it would join the NPT and questioned the effectiveness of the treaty.[296]The Washington Times reported that this statement threatened to derail the 40-year-old secret agreement between the US and Israel to shield Israel's nuclear weapons program from international scrutiny.[297] According to Avner Cohen, by not stating that Israel has atomic weapons, the US avoids having to sanction the country for violating American non-proliferation law.[298] Cohen, author ofIsrael and the Bomb, argued that acknowledging its nuclear program would allow Israel to take part constructively in efforts to control nuclear weapons.[299]
The Final Document of the 2010 NPT Review Conference called for a conference in 2012 to implement a resolution of the 1995 NPT Review Conference that called for the establishment of a Middle East Zone free of weapons of mass destruction. The United States joined the international consensus for Final Document, but criticized the section on the Middle East resolution for singling out Israel as the only state in the region that is not party to the NPT, while at the same time ignoring Iran's "longstanding violation of the NPT and UN Security Council Resolutions."[300]
During theGaza war, Israeli and US officials have made statements about nuclear weapons and Gaza characterized asgenocidal intent.[301][302][303] Israeli security analysts have also argued these statements undermine Israelinuclear ambiguity.[304]
On 9 October 2023,Likud member of theKnessetTally Gotliv made aTwitter post calling for a nuclear-armedJericho missile "strategic alert" and the use of a "doomsday weapon". She continued that "Only an explosion that shakes the Middle East will restore this country’s dignity, strength and security!".[305][306]
Minister of HeritageAmihai Eliyahu responded "That's one way." to an interviewer asking if Israel should drop "some kind of atomic bomb" on Gaza "to kill everyone”.[307][308] His remarks were criticized by the Israeli opposition, a number of Arab countries, Iran, and China.[240][241] Palestinian foreign ministerRiyad al-Maliki filed a complaint with theInternational Atomic Energy Agency arguing the statement was "an official recognition that Israel possesses nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction".[309] Eliyahu was ostensibly suspended from the Israeli cabinet by Israeli prime ministerBenjamin Netanyahu, but continued to participate in meetings by phone.[302] Eliyahu's fatherShmuel Eliyahu, theChief Rabbi of the city ofSafed, repeated the statement: "A nuclear bomb on Gaza is indeed an option!"[301]
US Republican congressmenLindsey Graham,Tim Walberg, andRandy Fine were criticized for referring to theatomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to support theIsraeli bombing of the Gaza Strip.[310][311][312]
Nuclear weapons scholar Vincent Intondi argued that US and Israeli officials' statements are liable to prosecution under theGenocide Convention'sincitement clause, but the convention obligates countries to prosecute incitement within their own borders.[301]
[Vanunu blew] the whistle on Israel's secret nuclear activities....It was a decision that led him first to London and the Sunday Times - then to Rome and kidnapping by Israeli intelligence service Mossad - then back to Israel and a long jail sentence.
One of those agents,Arnon Milchan, was considered among the most successful and prolific agents who secured items such auranium enrichment centrifuges andKrytron nuclear triggers, would later become one of the most successful movie producers inHollywood history.
Ex-US PresidentJimmy Carter has said Israel has at least 150 atomic weapons in its arsenal.
This paper is current only to 8 September 2002.
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