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During theRusso-Ukrainian war, several senior Russian politicians, including presidentVladimir Putin, former president andprime ministerDmitry Medvedev, andforeign ministerSergey Lavrov, have made a number of statements widely seen asnuclear blackmail. The possibility of Russia usingtactical nuclear weapons, and the risk of broadernuclear escalation, has been widely discussed by commentators and in the media.[1] By 2024, many of theRussian government's "red lines" had been crossed without nuclear weapons being used in response.[2] As well as nuclear weapons threats, the Russian occupation of theZaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has led to acrisis over the safety of the plant and the risk of anuclear disaster.
On 1 June 2025, one leg of Russia'snuclear triad, itsstrategic bomber force that has been used forconventional attacks against Ukraine, was subjected to a coordinated drone attack by Ukraine duringOperation Spiderweb.
TheChernobyl Exclusion Zone was the site of fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces during theBattle of Chernobyl as part of theRussian invasion of Ukraine. On 24 February 2022, Russian forces captured the plant.[3][4] The resulting activity reportedly led to a 20-fold increase of detected radiation levels in the area due to disturbance of contaminated soil.[5] On 9 March 2022, there was a power cut at the plant itself. No radiation leaks were reported as of 9 March 2022. However, Ukrainian authorities reported that there was a risk of a radiation leak due to spent fuel coolant being unable to circulate properly.[6]
On 30 March 2022, Russian forces formally handed control of the plant back to its employees, and most occupying forces withdrew.Ukrainian National Guard personnel were moved toBelarus asprisoners of war.[7][8] On 2 April 2022, Ukrainian media reported that theflag of Ukraine was raised at the plant.[9]
According to Chernobyl operatorEnergoatom, Russian troops had dug trenches in the most contaminated part of theChernobyl exclusion zone, receiving "significant doses" of radiation.[10]BBC News mentioned unconfirmed reports that some were being treated inBelarus.[10] The equipment ofChernobyl nuclear power plant and radioactive materials were looted by Russian forces.[11]
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Late in the evening of 27 February 2022,[12][13] three days after the launch of the Russian invasion, President Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces to go into a "special mode of combat duty", a state of high alert.[14][15]
On 20 April 2022, Russia carried out its first test launch of theRS-28 Sarmat, a new long-rangeintercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Putin said the new missile could defeat any missile defences, and that it should cause countries threatening Russia to "think twice".[16] TheUnited States Department of Defense confirmed that Russia had properly notified the U.S. about the launch in advance, pursuant toNew START, and that the U.S. considered the launch to be a routine test and not a threat.[17]
On 24 April, in apparent response to US secretary of stateAntony Blinken's meeting with Zelenskyy in Kyiv on 23 April, Russian foreign ministerSergey Lavrov stated that further support of Ukraine could cause tensions which could potentially lead to aWorld War III scenario involving Russia's full arsenal of weapons.[18] The day after Lavrov's comments, CNBC reported that US secretaryLloyd Austin referred to Russia's nuclear war rhetoric as being "dangerous and unhelpful".[19]
In an apparent response to Germany deploying armed tanks to Ukraine, Putin announced in Russia's main legislative assembly that Russia would respond to any combative military provocation from outside of Ukraine with prompt peremptory action possible only with Russia's unique arsenal of nuclear weapons.[20] Pentagon Press secretaryJohn Kirby called Putin's assertion of nuclear potency contrary to the process of the peaceful resolution of the current conflict in Ukraine.[21]
On 29 May, after repudiating accusations made against Russia regardingatrocities in Bucha, the Russian ambassador to the UK,Andrei Kelin, said in an interview with theBBC that he did not believe Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine until Russian sovereignty was found to be in peril.[15]
The state-owned Russian television channelRussia-1 has been noted for the frequency with which its presenters propose Russian nuclear attack on Western countries, including the United Kingdom and United States of America.[22][23]
After anumber of successful Ukrainiancounteroffensive operations, a number of Russian units were in danger of being surrounded and destroyed. US intelligence started to receive information that Russia began to think about a potential tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine.[24]
On 21 September, while announcing apartial mobilization of conscripts, Putin said that Russia "will use all the means at our disposal" – widely interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons – to defend the country’s territory.[25] He warned that his threat was "not a bluff", baselessly accusedNATO of "nuclear blackmail" and of threatening to use nuclear weapons against Russia, and said Russia's nuclear weapons were more advanced than NATO's.[26][27] Russian Foreign MinisterSergey Lavrov did not rule out the use of nuclear weapons to defendannexed Ukrainian territories.[28] Several days later, former Russian president and Putin allyDmitry Medvedev made a more explicit threat of a nuclear strike against Ukraine.[29]
On 1 October,Ramzan Kadyrov, head of theChechen Republic, called on Russia to use low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine in response toRussia losing the strategically important Ukrainian town of Lyman,[30] the first prominent Russian official to directly call for the use of nuclear weapons.[31] In response to Kadyrov's comments,Kremlin press secretaryDmitry Peskov said that the use of nuclear weapons would be determined byRussian military doctrine and not by emotions.[32]
Later in October, Russian officials, including Russian defense ministerSergei Shoigu,[33] began accusing Ukraine of preparing to use a radioactivedirty bomb on Ukrainian territory, prompting concerns in the West that Russia itself might be planning to use a dirty bomb and blame it on Ukraine. The allegations were additionally communicated in phone calls to Western officials by two top Russian officials.[34] On 24 October, John Kirby stated that there was no evidence Russia was preparing a dirty bomb strike.[35] A tweet by the Russian Ministry of Defence, purportedly showing evidence of a Ukrainian dirty bomb in production, was debunked as a collection of old and unrelated photos.[36] At Ukraine's request, theUnited Nations sent anIAEA investigation to Ukraine, which found no evidence of a dirty bomb being developed or any other undeclared nuclear activity.[37][38][39] US feared that those allegations by Russia may be a confirmation of it preparing for a nuclear strike on Ukraine, using dirty bomb allegations or afalse flag attack as a pretext.[24]
The US, as reported by CNN, has "prepared 'rigorously' for potential Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine". It also engaged US diplomats, as well as asked other countries, namely China and India, to engage diplomatically to persuade Russia to avoid nuclear escalation.[24]
On 22 January 2023,Vyacheslav Volodin, thespeaker of the Duma, wrote onTelegram that "If Washington and NATO countries supply weapons that will be used to strike civilian cities and attempt to seize our territories, as they threaten, this will lead to retaliatory measures using more powerful weapons," and "Arguments that the nuclear powers have not previously used weapons of mass destruction in local conflicts are untenable. Because these states did not face a situation where there was a threat to the security of their citizens and the territorial integrity of the country."[40] In the same month, Russia repeatedly accused Ukraine of storing its military equipment in the nuclear power plants under its control. The IAEA has permanent observers in all Ukrainian plants since 2022, and on 24 January 2023, the agency issued a statement that it had found no military equipment in the plants.[41]
On 21 February 2023, during aPresidential Address to the Federal Assembly, Putin announced that Russia would be suspending its participation inNew START, the last remaining nuclear weapons treaty between Russia and the United States. He stated, "[Russia] is not withdrawing from the treaty but is suspending its participation."[42][43] On 26 February 2023, to state-owned television channelRussia-1, Putin said that Russia had no choice but to "take into account" the nuclear capabilities of NATO, and that the West wanted to "liquidate" Russia.[44] Russia said it would continue informing the US on planned launches ofintercontinental andsubmarine-launched ballistic missiles under the 1988 Ballistic Missile Launch Notification Agreement.[45]
On 25 March 2023, Putin announced plans to installRussian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.[46] On 29 March, Russia's Defense Ministry announced that it would conduct a nuclear missile drill, which includes the testing of nuclear-tippedRS-24 Yars missiles.[47]
In March 2023, Russian journalistDmitry Muratov, who won theNobel Peace Prize in 2021, warned thatRussian state propaganda "is preparing people to think that nuclear war is not a bad thing. On TV channels here, nuclear war and nuclear weapons are promoted as if they're advertising pet food."[48]
In June 2023, Russianpolitical scientistSergey Karaganov called for the use of nuclear weapons by Russia against NATO member states in Europe, saying that "we will have to hit a bunch of targets in a number of countries in order to bring those who have lost their mind to reason."[49]
Leaked documents seen by theFinancial Times in 2024 described a threshold for the country's use oftactical nuclear weapons that is lower than Russia had previously disclosed.[50] Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre in Berlin told the FT: "This is the first time that we have seen documents like this reported in the public domain […] They show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is pretty low if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means."[51]
On or around 20 September, Russia tested its newestICBM, theRS-28 Sarmat in an apparent attempt at nuclear blackmail. The test failed and destroyed the launch silo and its surrounding facilities.[52][53][54][55]
On 25 September, Putin warnedthe West that if attacked with conventional weapons Russia would consider anuclear retaliation.[56][57] Putin went on to threaten nuclear powers that if they supported another country's attack on Russia, then they would be considered participants in such an aggression.[58][59] Russia and the United States are the world's biggestnuclear powers, holding about 88% of the world'snuclear weapons.[60] Experts said Putin's announcement was aimed at dissuading the United States, the United Kingdom, and France from allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied long-range missiles such as theStorm Shadow andATACMS instrikes against Russia.[61] Two days later,Belarusian President and close ally of RussiaAlexander Lukashenko warned thatBelarus will usenuclear weapons if attacked by the West.[62]
On 19 November, Putin signed adecree allowing Russia to usenuclear weapons in response toconventional attacks by a non-nuclear state supported by anuclear power, lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a possible conventional attack.[63]
On 7 December, Russia and Belarus signed an agreement offering security guarantees toBelarus includingnuclear security and the possible use ofRussian nuclear weapons to repel aggressions.[64] Two days later Belarusian President Lukashenko confirmed the presence of Russiannuclear weapons in Belarus, includingRussia'sOreshnik missile system.[65]
On 4 May in an interview to mark his 25 years of power in Russia, Putin remarked that "he hoped that there would be no need to use nuclear weapons" to bring the Russian invasion of Ukraine "to its logical conclusion".[66][67]
On 31 July in response to US President Trump's warning to RussiaDmitry Medvedev made a nuclear threat referencing the Soviet eradead hand automatized, second strike system.[68]
On 14 April 2022,The New York Times reported comments by CIA directorWilliam Burns, who said "potential desperation" could lead President Putin to order the use oftactical nuclear weapons.[69]
On 4 May, the US Senate held the "Hearing on Nuclear Readiness Amid Russia-Ukraine War" where AdmiralCharles A. Richard stated that currentnuclear triad defence capabilities in the US were operating at a minimal acceptable level of operational capacity, with Russian stockpiles and Chinese stockpiles currently larger than those of the US.[70][time needed] On 6 May, Russian foreign ministry spokesman Alexei Zaitsev stated that Russia would not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, describing their use as "not applicable to the Russian 'special military operation'".[71]
On 23 May, Russian diplomatBoris Bondarev resigned from his position and issued a critique of the invasion, singling out Lavrov's position on the potential use of Russian nuclear arms: "In 18 years, he (Lavrov) went from a professional and educated intellectual ... to a person who constantly broadcasts conflicting statements and threatens the world with nuclear weapons!"[72] Japan's Prime MinisterFumio Kishida stated that Japan would support further international discussion about Russia and its nuclear arms threats during the invasion of Ukraine at the upcoming nuclear non-proliferation meeting taking place next August.[73][74] On 20 June, the "Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons" opened in Vienna to discuss potential catastrophic effects of nuclear arms, amid rising fears over Russia's possible use of nuclear weapons during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.[75]
On 1 July, during a visit by Lavrov to Belarus, Belarusian presidentAlexander Lukashenko indicated support for Moscow to use nuclear weapons against the broad threats of Western hegemony over Russia and its allies demonstrated during the conflict in Ukraine.[76]
On 13 August, in an interview with the BBC,Jim Hockenhull, the outgoing head of UK Military Intelligence, said he considered the possibility of Russia imminently using nuclear weapons to be "unlikely".[77]
In a September 2022 interview, U.S. PresidentJoe Biden was asked what consequences would ensue for Russian use of nuclear weapons. Biden responded: "You think I would tell you if I knew exactly what it would be? Of course, I'm not gonna tell you. It'll be consequential... They'll become more of a pariah in the world than they ever have been. And depending on the extent of what they do will determine what response would occur."[78] On 26 September, national security advisorJake Sullivan spoke of "catastrophic consequences" if Russia used nuclear weapons, adding that "in private channels we have spelled out in greater detail (to Russia) exactly what that would mean". Secretary of State Antony Blinken similarly referred to a "catastrophic" U.S. response.[79]
NATO Secretary-GeneralJens Stoltenberg stated on 21 September that NATO would "not engage in that same kind of reckless and dangerous nuclear rhetoric as President Putin".[80] On 4 October, British foreign ministerJames Cleverly said any Russian use of nuclear weapons would lead to consequences.[81] Minister of Foreign Affairs of PolandZbigniew Rau has stated a NATO response should be "devastating", but non-nuclear. Rau also stated on 5 October that he has asked for the U.S. to base nuclear weapons on Polish territory; this may have been partly in response to Russia's recent nuclear threat and partly in response to the prospect of Russia basing nuclear weapons in Belarus.[82]
In September 2022, a Ukrainiansea droneattack on theCrimeanSevastopol Naval Base failed when the satellite Internet serviceStarlink, used for Ukrainian communications, didn't work in the target area.[83][84]Elon Musk, CEO ofStarlink, had denied Ukraine's request to turn on Starlink coverage up to Crimea.[83][84] He had been warned byRussian ambassador to the USAnatoly Antonov that an attack on Crimea would be met with a nuclear response from Russia[85] and feared that an attack on Crimea could escalate the conflict toWW3.[86]Anne Applebaum wrote inThe Atlantic that Musk's influence had been played byRussian disinformation.[85]
On 6 October 2022, during a speech at a private fundraiser inNew York City, Biden said that for the "[f]irst time since theCuban Missile Crisis, we have a direct threat of the use of the nuclear weapon if, in fact, things continue down the path they've been going... Think about it: We have not faced the prospect ofArmageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis. We've got a guy I know fairly well; his name is Vladimir Putin. I spent a fair amount of time with him. He is not joking when he talks about the potential use of tactical and nuclear weapons, or biological or chemical weapons, because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming... I don't think there’s any such thing as an ability to easily [use] a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon."[87][88][89] According to theAssociated Press, Biden sometimes speaks in an unguarded way, using only rough notes, at such private fundraisers;[90]White House Press SecretaryKarine Jean-Pierre later said that Biden's comments were not based on new intelligence or information.[91] In an interview withCNN'sJake Tapper that aired on 11 October 2022, Biden said that he did not believe Putin would ultimately resort to deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but criticized Putin's statements on the topic as "irresponsible".[92]
In an interview with the BBC on 11 October 2022,GCHQDirectorJeremy Fleming said the agency had seen no indications that Russia was preparing for the use of a tactical nuclear weapon.[93] Later, in a statement released on 18 October, Major GeneralKyrylo Budanov, Chief of theMain Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine'sMinistry of Defense, said he did not believe Russia would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.[94]
On 24 January 2023, theBulletin of the Atomic Scientists adjusted itsDoomsday Clock to 90 seconds to midnight, a 10-second advancement from the Clock's previous time setting in 2020. The organization cited increasing risk of nuclear escalation stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a major factor in the adjustment.[95]
During a press briefing at theWhite House on 25 January 2023,John Kirby, Coordinator for Strategic Communications for theUnited States National Security Council, said that the United States does not "have any indication that Mr. Putin has any intention to use weapons of mass destruction - let alone nuclear weapons, tactical or otherwise." Kirby also said the United States has seen "absolutely no indications that Mr. Putin has designs on striking NATO territory."[96]
On 26 February 2024, after meeting with several other European heads of state inParis to discuss support for Ukraine,French PresidentEmmanuel Macron declined to rule out the possibility of deploying Western military personnel in Ukraine, saying that "anything is possible" to help Ukraine win the war.[97] On 29 February, during his annualPresidential Address to the Federal Assembly, Putin warned that more direct Western intervention in the war would result in a nuclear conflict; he stated that "we [Russia] also have the weapons that can strike targets on their territory, and what they are now suggesting and scaring the world with, all that raises the real threat of a nuclear conflict that will mean the destruction of our civilization."[98][99][100] In an interview withEl País published on 1 March,Deputy Secretary General of NATOMircea Geoană said that the alliance did "not see any imminent threat of Russia using [nuclear] weapons," but decried Putin's statements as "very dangerous, because they erode trust"; he also affirmed that "we at NATO have no intention or plans to deploy troops to Ukraine."[101][102]
On 1 August 2025, PresidentDonald Trump ordered the deployment of twoUnited States Navynuclear submarines "in the appropriate regions" in response to statements made byDmitry Medvedev regarding Trump's previously-stated deadline for ending the war in Ukraine.[103]
In April 2022, American political activistDaniel Ellsberg compared Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats toRichard Nixon’s self-proclaimed "madman strategy".[104]
Eric Schlosser, writing forThe Atlantic magazine on 22 June 2022, stated that the nuclear saber-rattling by Russia during the invasion appeared to suggest the most probable uses of nuclear weapons would be:[105]
CSIS military expert Mark Cancian suggested the possibility of detonating high in the atmosphere to produce anelectromagnetic pulse and knock out electronic equipment.[106]
On 7 September,The Washington Post reported that the Russian high military command had published an analysis saying that tactical nuclear arms remained a viable option for use against Ukraine, quoting Ukrainian commander in chiefValeriy Zaluzhnyi as stating: "There is a direct threat of the use, under certain circumstances, of tactical nuclear weapons by the Russian Armed Forces... It is also impossible to completely rule out the possibility of the direct involvement of the world’s leading countries in a ‘limited’ nuclear conflict, in which the prospect of World War III is already directly visible."[107]
Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at theFederation of American Scientists, said that "if you start detonating nuclear weapons in the area you potentially getradioactive fallout that you can't control — it could rain over your own troops as well, so it might not be an advantage to do that in the field." He also said that "the big problem is with people both inside the Russian system, but also in the public in general, if they think about tactical nuclear weapons as something small; something less severe or something almost okay."[108] On 1 October 2022, theInstitute for the Study of War argued that Russian soldiers are "almost certainly incapable of operating on a nuclear battlefield", owing to their disorganization, and that this inability to advance through a nuclear environment reduces the likelihood of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use in the first place.[109][110]
In a 2 October 2022 analysis,The Jerusalem Post stated "Most experts do not think that Russian President Vladimir Putin will actually use nuclear weapons in Ukraine at the end of the day, but the number of those who think he will or might is growing." Different analysts hypothesized different initial Western responses, depending in part on the nature of the initial Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine. Hypothetical initial responses included: increased sanctions, a conventional assault on Russian forces in Ukraine, a nuclear attack on Russian forces in Ukraine, or a nuclear attack on Belarus. Their analysis added that, even if Russia used a nuclear weapon, "the likelihood is still no" that it would lead to a full nuclear war.[111] Mark Cancian has suggested increased weapons shipments, including previously restricted weapons like NATO aircraft, advanced anti-missile batteries, andATACMS long-range missiles.[106]
In January 2023,Graham Allison, writing forTime, presented a seven-point summary of Putin's hypothetical intention to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Allison stated that:[112]
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At the beginning of theRussian invasion of Ukraine, during theBattle of Enerhodar on 4 March 2022,Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) , thelargest nuclear power plant in Europe, was attacked and occupied byRussian forces. It was the first full-scale military attack and occupation of an operationalnuclear power plant in history.[113] It has become the center of an ongoing nuclear safety crisis, described by Ukraine as an act ofnuclear terrorism byRussia.[114]
Since September 2022, all six reactors have been placed in various states of shutdown, the same month Russiaannexed the region in a disputed referendum. In 2025, Russia confirmed its long-term plans forRosatom to operate the plant, currently operated by UkrainianEnergoatom staff, and in connection to the Russian power grid. Ukrainian forces have made multiple attempts to recapture the plant, and both sides blame each other for direct and indirect attacks on it. ZNPP has seen destruction of its infrastructure via shelling and damage to itspower lines. The future of the plant's safety and electricity production is a significant point in thepeace negotiations of the war.
Ukrainian authorities call the crisis the largest situation of its kind in history. Experts vary on whether a potential disaster may exceed the scale of previous disasters at nuclear power plants.[115][116] According to a report by theInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), "The situation in Ukraine is unprecedented. It is the first time a military conflict has occurred amid the facilities of a large, established nuclear power program." Nuclear safety expert Attila Aszódi said that an event similar in type and scale to theChernobyl disaster is technically and physically not possible in the Zaporizhzhia plant, while calling for urgent steps to ensure the safety of the plant.[117] TheBellona Foundation called the crisis "something the world nuclear energy community never thought it would see — and thus never prepared for."[118]The IAEA's Director GeneralRafael Grossi urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise "maximum restraint" to avoid an accident at theKursk Nuclear Power Plant during theAugust 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion, following reports of "significant military activity" near the facility.[119]
In August 2025, a fire broke out at Kursk Nuclear power plant, allegedly due to a Ukrainian drone strike. The fire was extinguished, with no injuries or excess radiation reported. The Ukrainian government declined to comment on the strike.[120]
On 14 February 2025, an unmanned aerial vehicle hit theNew Safe Confinement structure at theChernobyl Nuclear Power Plant inUkraine. The attack resulted in significant damage to the protective shelter, but did not lead to increased radiation levels in the surrounding area.[121]Ukrainian PresidentVolodymyr Zelenskyy said that a Russiancombat drone carrying a "high-explosive warhead" had struck the structure. Russia denied the allegations, instead suggesting that Ukrainian officials made the claim to disrupt peace negotiations.[122][123]
In May 2024, Ukrainian dronesattacked twoearly-warning long-rangeVoronezh radars, one inArmavir, southern Russia[124] and one nearOrsk in Russia'sOrenburg Oblast.[125] An anonymous U.S. official said the United States "is concerned about Ukraine’s recent strikes against Russian ballistic missile early-warning sites."[126]
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