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Next Northern Ireland Assembly election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Upcoming elections for Northern Ireland

Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
← 2022No later than 6 May 2027
All 90 seats to theNorthern Ireland Assembly
 
First Minister Humza Yousaf meets with First Minister of Northern Ireland designate Michelle O'Neill, 2023 (cropped).jpg
Official portrait of Gavin Robinson MP crop 2.jpg
Naomi_Long_MLA.jpg
LeaderMichelle O'Neill[n 1]Gavin Robinson[n 2]Naomi Long
PartySinn FéinDUPAlliance
Leader since23 January 2017[n 3]29 March 202426 October 2016
Leader's seatMid UlsterMP (not an MLA)[n 4]Belfast East
Last election27 seats, 29.0%25 seats, 21.3%17 seats, 13.5%
 
Mike Nesbitt 2024.jpg
Official portrait of Claire Hanna MP crop 2.jpg
Official portrait of Jim Allister MP crop 2.jpg
LeaderMike NesbittClaire HannaJim Allister
PartyUUPSDLPTUV
Leader since30 August 20245 October 20247 December 2007
Leader's seatStrangfordMP (not an MLA)[n 6]MP (not an MLA)[n 5]
Last election9 seats, 11.2%8 seats, 9.1%1 seat, 7.6%
 
Richard Boyd Barrett 2024 (cropped).jpg
LeaderRichard Boyd Barrett
PartyPeople Before Profit
Leader since10 October 2024
Leader's seatTD (not an MLA)[n 7]
Last election1 seat, 1.1%
IncumbentFirst Minister and
deputy First Minister

Michelle O'Neill (SF) and
Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP)



ANorthern Ireland Assembly election will be held to elect 90 members to theNorthern Ireland Assembly on or before 6 May 2027.

After theNorthern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May 2022, the DUP (the largest unionist party in the legislature) declined to agree on the appointment of Speaker to the Assembly, preventing the formation of an Executive.Chris Heaton-Harris, theSecretary of State for Northern Ireland, confirmed a legal obligation to call an election if no Executive was formed by a 27 October 2022 deadline.[2] No Executive was formed by this deadline,[3] but the deadline was extended by legislation in the Westminster Parliament.[4][5] A deadline of 18 January 2024 was then proposed.[6][7] On 31 January 2024 the DUP andUK Government announced a deal had been struck to revive the Executive,[8] and on 3 February 2024 the Assembly swore in Sinn Fein First MinisterMichelle O'Neill and DUP deputy First MinisterEmma Little-Pengelly.[9]

This election will be the eighth since the assembly was established in 1998. Seven parties have MLAs in the seventh assembly:Sinn Féin led byMichelle O'Neill, theDemocratic Unionist Party (DUP) led byGavin Robinson,[10]Alliance led byNaomi Long, theUlster Unionist Party (UUP) led by Mike Nesbitt, theSocial Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) led byClaire Hanna,Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) led byJim Allister, andPeople Before Profit (PBP) led byRichard Boyd Barrett.

Background

[edit]
Main article:2024 Northern Ireland Executive formation

Section 7 of theNorthern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 (c. 13) specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,[11] which is 6 May 2027. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved earlier.

After the 2022 Assembly election, the DUP declined to join in forming a government due to its opposition to theNorthern Ireland Protocol on post-Brexit trading arrangements. If no government is formed within six months, the United Kingdom Government'sNorthern Ireland Secretary has to call a new election early or come up with some other solution.[12] No government was formed by the deadline.[13] Rather than call a new election, Heaton-Harris introduced legislation to extend the deadline,[14] theNorthern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022 (c. 48).[15][16][17] The new deadline also passed with no resolution.[14][18][19] Heaton-Harris produced a further extension through legislation via theNorthern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) Act 2023.[20][21]

On 27 February 2023, the UK and EU announced theWindsor Framework to make changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.[22] It was hoped that this would lead to formation of an Assembly executive.[23] However, the DUP boycott continued.[24] Heaton-Harris again brought primary legislation to further extend the deadline to 8 February 2024, via theNorthern Ireland (Executive Formation) Act 2024.[25][26][27]

On 30 January, the DUP announced that they would accept a deal conditional on legislation being passed by the UK government that saw them agreeing to form an executive with Sinn Fein.[28] A new executive was formed on 3 February 2024.

Opinion polling

[edit]

Voting intention

[edit]
Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample
size		SF
N		DUPUAPNIOUUPUSDLPNTUVUGreenOAontúNPBPOOtherLead
17–20 Oct 2025LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,90825%18%11%12%11%13%4%2%2%2%7%
8–11 Aug 2025LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,02826%17%12%11%11%13%3%2%2%3%9%
16–19 May 2025LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,75526%18%13%12%11%12%3%2%1%2%8%
14–17 Feb 2025LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,00128%19%14%11%11%11%2%1%1%2%9%
1–4 Nov 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,20929%19%13%10%10%11%2%1%2%3%10%
1–4 Nov 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,20929%19%13%10%10%11%2%1%2%3%10%
10 Oct 2024Richard Boyd Barrett becomes the leader ofPeople Before Profit (PBP)
5 Oct 2024Claire Hanna becomes the leader of theSocial Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
30 Aug 2024Mike Nesbitt becomes the leader of theUlster Unionist Party (UUP)
29 Aug 2024Colum Eastwood resigns as leader of theSocial Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
19 Aug 2024Doug Beattie resigns asleader of theUlster Unionist Party (UUP)
16–19 Aug 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,44330%18%15%12%8%9%2%1%1%4%12%
4 Jul 20242024 general election–27.0%22.1%15.0%12.2%11.1%6.2%1.1%1.0%1.1%
3.3%
Independent on 3.1%
7.6%
10–13 May 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,02129%21%15%11%8%8%1%2%1%4%8%
29 Mar 2024Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of theDemocratic Unionist Party (DUP)
9–12 Feb 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,20731%24%14%10%7%6%1%2%1%4%7%
3 Feb 2024Establishment of the new executive
27–30 Oct 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,04631%28%16%8%6%4%2%1%1%2%3%
11–14 Aug 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95031%26%15%10%6%5%2%2%1%2%5%
18 May 20232023 local elections–30.9%23.3%13.3%10.9%8.7%3.9%1.7%0.9%1.0%
5.4%
7.6%
21–24 Apr 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,55729%25%13%11%7%7%2%2%1%3%4%
3–14 Mar 2023Institute of Irish StudiesUniversity of Liverpool/The Irish NewsN/A30.6%23.9%15.4%11.3%6.7%4.8%3.2%0.2%2.2%
1.7%
6.7%
20–23 Jan 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,49931%25%15%10%7%7%1%2%1%1%6%
4–7 Nov 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35132%27%15%9%7%5%2%1%1%1%5%
12–15 Aug 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38430%24%16%11%7%6%2%2%1%1%6%
28 Jun – 10 Jul 2022Institute of Irish StudiesUniversity of Liverpool/The Irish News1,00030.9%20.1%15.3%9.6%10.0%4.7%2.8%1.6%2.2%2.8%10.8%
5 May 20222022 Assembly election–29.0%21.3%13.5%11.2%9.1%7.6%1.9%1.5%1.1%
3.8%
7.7%

Note: Next to the party initials at the top of the table there are the letters "N", "O", and "U". These show how the parties have chosen todesignate themselves,Unionist (U),Nationalist (N) or other (O), in the Assembly previously (or, in the case of Aontú, how they are expected to designate if they win a seat). This is a function of the Assembly'sconsociational design.

Leadership approval ratings

[edit]
This section needs to beupdated. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information.(May 2025)

Michelle O'Neill

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions onMichelle O'Neill,Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018,First Minister of Northern Ireland since3 February 2024 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample sizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
9–12 February 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,20754%29%17%+25%
3 February 2024O'Neill becomesFirst Minister of Northern Ireland
11–14 August 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95043%37%20%+6%
21–24 April 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95741%37%22%+4%
20–23 January 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44941%40%19%+4%
4–7 November 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35146%37%17%+9%
12–15 August 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38440%42%18%–2%

Jeffrey Donaldson

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions onJeffrey Donaldson, leader of theDemocratic Unionist Party (DUP) until 29 March 2024.

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample sizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
29 March 2024Donaldson resigns as leader of theDemocratic Unionist Party (DUP)
9–12 February 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,20736%48%16%–12%
11–14 August 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95024%66%10%–42%
21–24 April 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95727%65%8%–38%
20–23 January 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44925%63%12%–38%
4–7 November 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35129%65%6%–36%
12–15 August 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38427%64%9%–37%

Naomi Long

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions onNaomi Long, leader of theAlliance Party since 26 October 2016 andMinister of Justice since 3 February 2024 and from 11 January 2020 to 27 October 2022.

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample sizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
9–12 February 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,20738%36%26%+2%
3 February 2024Long becomesMinister of Justice
11–14 August 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95038%39%23%–1%
21–24 April 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95740%38%22%+2%
20–23 January 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44937%38%25%–1%
4–7 November 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35145%37%18%+8%
27 October 2022Long is removed asMinister of Justice due to the collapse of thepower-sharingNorthern Ireland Executive
12–15 August 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38446%37%17%+9%

Doug Beattie

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions onDoug Beattie,leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample sizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
19 August 2024Beattie resigns asleader of theUlster Unionist Party (UUP)
9–12 February 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,20735%35%30%0%
11–14 August 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95034%38%28%–4%
21–24 April 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95738%33%29%+5%
20–23 January 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44928%42%30%–14%
4–7 November 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35137%32%31%+5%
12–15 August 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38434%34%32%0%

Colum Eastwood

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions onColum Eastwood, leader of theSocial Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) from 14 November 2015 to 5 October 2024.

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample sizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
29 August 2024Eastwood resigns as leader of theSocial Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
9–12 February 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,20731%41%28%–10%
11–14 August 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95026%43%31%–17%
21–24 April 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95732%40%28%–8%
20–23 January 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44933%38%29%–5%
4–7 November 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35131%39%30%–8%
12–15 August 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38434%39%27%–5%

Jim Allister

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions onJim Allister, leader ofTraditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.

Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample sizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
4 July 2024Allister is elected asMember of Parliament (MP) forNorth Antrim
9–12 February 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,20720%70%10%–50%
11–14 August 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph2,95023%63%14%–40%
21–24 April 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,95727%61%12%–34%
20–23 January 2023LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph1,44927%57%16%–30%
4–7 November 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,35127%59%14%–32%
12–15 August 2022LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,38431%54%15%–23%

Leadership performance ratings

[edit]

The following poll asked respondents to rate the performance of political leaders in the last few months, scoring from 0% to 100% for each leader.

NI political leaders

[edit]
Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample sizeGavin Robinson
DUP leader		Michelle O'Neill
Sinn Féin VP
- NI First Minister		Naomi Long
Alliance leader		Colum Eastwood
SDLP leader		Doug Beattie
UUP leader		Jim Allister
TUV leader		Emma Little-Pengelly
(DUP)
NI deputy First Minister		NI ExecutiveLead
29 August 2024Colum Eastwood resigns as leader of theSocial Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
16 August 2024Doug Beattie resigns asleader of theUlster Unionist Party (UUP)
4 July 2024Jim Allister is elected asMember of Parliament (MP) forNorth Antrim
29 May 2024Gavin Robinson iselected as leader of theDemocratic Unionist Party (DUP)
10–13 May 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,31646%53%46%39%44%29%52%39%1%
29 March 2024Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of theDemocratic Unionist Party (DUP)
3 February 2024Naomi Long becomesMinister of Justice
Emma Little-Pengelly becomesdeputy First Minister of Northern Ireland
Michelle O'Neill becomesFirst Minister of Northern Ireland
Establishment of the new Executive
27 October 2022Naomi Long is removed asMinister of Justice due to the collapse of thepower-sharingNorthern Ireland Executive

UK and Ireland political leaders

[edit]
Dates
conducted		PollsterClientSample sizeSimon Harris
Taoiseach Ireland		Mary Lou McDonald
Sinn Féin President		Chris Heaton-Harris
NI Secretary of State		Rishi Sunak
UK Prime Minister		Lead
23 January 2025Micheál Martin becomesTaoiseach
5 July 2024Hilary Benn becomesSecretary of State for Northern Ireland
Keir Starmer becomesPrime Minister of the United Kingdom
10–13 May 2024LucidTalkBelfast Telegraph3,31636%39%20%16%3%
9 April 2024Simon Harris becomesTaoiseach
17 December 2022Leo Varadkar becomesTaoiseach
25 October 2022Rishi Sunak becomesPrime Minister of the United Kingdom
6 September 2022Chris Heaton-Harris becomesSecretary of State for Northern Ireland
Liz Truss becomesPrime Minister of the United Kingdom
7 July 2022Shailesh Vara becomesSecretary of State for Northern Ireland

See also

[edit]

Footnotes

[edit]
  1. ^Sinn Féin's president isMary Lou McDonald, who is aTeachta Dála forDublin Central inDáil Éireann, the lower house of theOireachtas (legislature of theRepublic of Ireland). O'Neill is the party's vice president and leads the party in Northern Ireland.[1]
  2. ^DUP Deputy LeaderMichelle McIlveen leads the party in the Northern Ireland Assembly.
  3. ^As "Party leader in the North"
  4. ^Robinson sits in theHouse of Commons as the MP forBelfast East rather than in the Assembly.
  5. ^Allister sits in the House of Commons as the MP forNorth Antrim rather than in the Assembly.Timothy Gaston is the sole TUV MLA in the Assembly
  6. ^Hanna sits in theHouse of Commons as the MP forBelfast South and Mid Down rather than in the Assembly.Matthew O'Toole is leader of the SDLP in the Assembly.
  7. ^People before Profit's leader is Richard Boyd-Barrett, who is aTeachta Dála forDún Laoghaire inDáil Éireann, the lower house of theOireachtas (the legislature of theRepublic of Ireland).Gerry Carroll is the sole People Before Profit MLA in the Assembly

References

[edit]
  1. ^Black, Rebecca (12 July 2023)."O'Neill urges people burning effigies of politicians to 'catch themselves on'".The Independent. Retrieved4 June 2024.
  2. ^Pogatchnik, Shawn (28 September 2022)."UK warns of snap Northern Ireland election if DUP won't share power".Politico. Retrieved29 September 2022.
  3. ^"NI election looms as Stormont deadline passes".BBC News. 27 October 2022. Retrieved28 October 2022.
  4. ^McClafferty, Enda; McCormack, Jayne (2 November 2022)."NI election date to be confirmed soon – Steve Baker".BBC News. Retrieved18 November 2022.
  5. ^"Stormont election: Further delay suggested as NI Protocol talks continue".BBC News. 19 January 2023. Retrieved22 January 2023.
  6. ^O'Carroll, Lisa (9 February 2023)."Northern Ireland assembly election to be delayed again".The Guardian.ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved9 February 2023.
  7. ^Pogatchnik, Shawn (9 February 2023)."UK concedes reality of Northern Ireland deadlock, shifts election 'deadline' to 2024".POLITICO. Retrieved9 February 2023.
  8. ^Elizabeth Piper and Sarah Young (1 February 2024)."UK unveils DUP deal to restore Northern Ireland government".Reuters.
  9. ^Amanda Ferguson and Natalie Thomas (4 February 2024)."Northern Ireland appoints Irish nationalist as First Minister in historic shift".Reuters.
  10. ^Carroll, Rory (29 March 2024)."Sir Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as Democratic Unionist party leader".The Guardian. Retrieved29 March 2024.
  11. ^"Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014".Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved7 May 2016.
  12. ^Sproule, Luke (12 May 2022)."NI election results 2022: What does Sinn Féin's vote success mean?".BBC News. Retrieved14 May 2022.
  13. ^Simpson, Mark; Andrews, Chris (27 October 2022)."DUP blocks NI government as election call looms".BBC News. Retrieved27 October 2022.
  14. ^ab"Secretary of State for Northern Ireland – Statement on Executive Formation".UK Government. 9 November 2022. Retrieved11 November 2022.
  15. ^"Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2023-24"(PDF).researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk. 24 January 2024.
  16. ^"Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022". Archived fromthe original on 19 January 2023. Retrieved19 May 2025.
  17. ^McCormack, Jayne (5 December 2022)."Stormont: MLA pay cut bill passed in House of Lords" – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  18. ^McCormack, Jayne; Fox, Matt (9 November 2022)."Stormont stalemate: Heaton-Harris pushes back NI election deadline".BBC News. Retrieved18 November 2022.
  19. ^Hughes, Brendan (18 January 2023)."Latest Stormont deadline looms but little sign of snap election".BelfastLive.
  20. ^"Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) Act 2023 - Parliamentary Bills - UK Parliament".bills.parliament.uk.
  21. ^Torrance, David (6 January 2025)."Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2022-23" – via commonslibrary.parliament.uk.
  22. ^"The Windsor Framework".Institute for Government. 27 March 2023.
  23. ^Press Association (27 February 2023)."Windsor Framework: Sinn Fein and SDLP call for restoration of Assembly following NI Protocol deal".Belfast News Letter.
  24. ^"DUP: No dissent within the party over Stormont boycott, says leader".BBC News. 5 October 2023.
  25. ^"Stormont stalemate: Deadline to restore Northern Ireland Executive to expire".BBC News. 18 January 2024.
  26. ^"Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2023-24 - House of Commons Library". Archived fromthe original on 28 January 2024. Retrieved19 May 2025.
  27. ^"Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill - Parliamentary Bills - UK Parliament". Archived fromthe original on 24 January 2024. Retrieved19 May 2025.
  28. ^"Northern Ireland: New deal means goods will flow freely throughout UK – Jeffrey Donaldson".BBC News. 30 January 2024.
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